There Goes the Neighborhood (Game Thread) - GAME OVER MAFIA WIN

[Nolder]

I guess that makes me a *sunglasses* heart breaker

 

yeeeaaaaaaaaaaah!

 

Okay, so you're a Heartbreaker. Can you play Refugee? Free Fallin'?

 

close enough?

[Nynaeve]

*laughs*

 

 

 

Nyn

[Nolder]

fun fact: I live in The Valley mentioned in Free Fallin'

[Nolder]

also I promise I'm not a vampire

although I do prefer to sleep during the day and stay up all night...

[Nynaeve]

it's too bad. I have a thing for vampires (that don't sparkle...).

 

 

 

 

Nyn

[Nolder]

I'm sure you can find some in Hollywood

lotta weirdos over there

[Nolder]

they may or may not sparkle though

no guarantees

[bgrishinko]

<math rant>

 

Okay, this was bothering me because math is not debatable, so I put together the binomial distribution of what we are talking about. Skip it if you want, but it shows that Mynd is not completely bonkers in this idea.

 

p = chance to be anti-town = 25% (approximated, could have used 33% but I wanted to use lower odds)

n = number of games = 6 (arbitarilly chosen... i.e. Person X in the last 6 games counting this one)

 

I'm not going to put the whole formula here... but run the numbers the easy way (Wolfram Alpha) and... results are:

 

If there is a 25% chance to be anti-town in any given game and someone has been in 6 games recently,

there is a 82% chance they will be anti-town at least once.

 

Therefore, if EP hasn't been anti-town in his last 5 games, there is a high chance of being anti-town this game.

 

</math rant>

[Myndrunner]

Hey, no spamming we have mafia to hunt!!

 

*giggles*

[Myndrunner]

<math rant>

 

Okay, this was bothering me because math is not debatable, so I put together the binomial distribution of what we are talking about. Skip it if you want, but it shows that Mynd is not completely bonkers in this idea.

 

p = chance to be anti-town = 25% (approximated, could have used 33% but I wanted to use lower odds)

n = number of games = 6 (arbitarilly chosen... i.e. Person X in the last 6 games counting this one)

 

I'm not going to put the whole formula here... but run the numbers the easy way (Wolfram Alpha) and... results are:

 

If there is a 25% chance to be anti-town in any given game and someone has been in 6 games recently,

there is a 82% chance they will be anti-town at least once.

 

Therefore, if EP hasn't been anti-town in his last 5 games, there is a high chance of being anti-town this game.

 

</math rant>

 

If anyone has ever seen the movie 21 where the Harvard kids go to vegas and win big because of math, this is similar to what BG is referring to as well as me (sorta).

[bgrishinko]

That's based on a true story, by the way.

[Myndrunner]

Here is an explanation of the Monty Hall problem from the movie 21.

 

 

Now, try and apply this logic to mafia.

[Gabriel Kross]

sparkle factor is akin to fangirl factor the more you sparkle the more screaming fangirls you get remember to bring earplugs if you sparkle *throws sparkles out*

[Gabriel Kross]

I want polynomials gimme polynomials!!!

[Gabriel Kross]

[/nerdism]

[bgrishinko]

Monty Hall doesn't apply to mafia because it requires that each instance of the problem has knowledge of the previous instance. In the Monty Hall problem, choose Door 1, then when you are given a chance to change, the results are therefore influenced by the initial choice. Starting over from scratch negates the monty hall effect. That is not true here. Each game is independent and therefore the effect is negated. Monty Hall in mafia would be 3 people you can vote for, Vote Person A, person B is day killed as town, then can choose to keep voting A or switch to C. Unvote and switch to person C will give you a higher likelyhood of winning all things being equal (though that isn't quite a perfect example).

 

This is a simple Binomial Distribution issue, not Monty Hall.

[Nolder]

BURN THE WITCHES!!

[Nolder]

[Myndrunner]

Actually, it does - but on a broader scale. Because the lynch is Monty Hall. If you suspect player A of being mafia, and player B is lynched and flipped town, then the chances of player A being mafia are not as good as player C or D since most first day lynches result in a townie being lynched.

[Myndrunner]

Suppose that a player could be scum. If we lynch them, then they flip scum, it means that we have a 100% chance that they are scum. If they flip town, then there is a definite 0% chance that they are scum.

[Gabriel Kross]

there is a 0% chance that I'm following this right now it made since until BG was talkin binomials and stuff >.>

[bgrishinko]

I think we just said the same thing.... though it's a lot more complicated than we are both making it out to be.

 

Monty Hall doesn't apply when referencing earlier games. Your originally theory wasn't Monty Hall related. It has some effect on individual lynches though as we have both said.

 

 

there is a 0% chance that I'm following this right now it made since until BG was talkin binomials and stuff >.>

 

Sorry. I'm done with Math talk for now here since it is distracting. I'm going to start a thread: The Math of Mafia.

.

[Myndrunner]

there is a 0% chance that I'm following this right now it made since until BG was talkin binomials and stuff >.>

 

lolz

[Darthe]

This is all true except for one thing. He is still alive in half of the games which gives him a third of that probability making him less likely to be mafia than he would be. I am up for the vote if that is how we wanna start D1 but the poor boy is already becoming blackhoof.

[Little Miss]

So much spam to swim through -.-

 

So Nolder and Black hoof are going based on what appears to be the exact numbers, where as BG and Mynd are going towards "realistic" probabilities, not hard core numbers.

(this is essentially what I got, if it's wrong then bite me, it was a lot of number for being in the morning)

 

There are a few people going with the bandwagon idea, or saying they are ok with going with it.

 

Nolder pointed out this is a new yet old trick on Mynd's. There is also the fact that EP "seems" to be chosen at random, may very well A) just a way to get people to strear clear of him if people decide against Mynd's idea) and B) an elaborate idea to lead a lynch and hide it behind "possibility"

 

Bg while agree with Mynd's general idea, has unvoted.

 

And finally EP seems to be taking this very calmly...