[Advanced Mafia] Black Ajah - GAME OVER!

[csarmi]

In any case, the players in green:

 

Meesh, Player, AJ (= those who didn't vote on either of the lynches) are the most likely to be town.

[DrewRiley]

I have no idea what BGs numbers mean, but Tal's argument makes sense to me. Looking at those three in iso (Song, BG, Leelou) gives me a little bit of a ping, but not much. Songs seems to be relatively rational so far, though her vote didn't have much substance. BGs vote is based on, "I said I would vote for Berf or Blackhoof!" but that is meaningless when he never really explicitly said why he'd vote for those two. Leelou's reason is weak as well, though she seems to just be agreeing with earlier arguments against Berf. But the fact that she was the hammer is the most interesting. It would be a ballsy move for mafia to hammer so quickly, but as we know with the NK rule it might have been worth the risk. But then, if Leelou was on the team with only two members left, it would be extra risky of her to jump on that lynch and risk being killed. But that's all speculation.

 

We really have no idea what's going on yet. I was just trying to narrow down the possibilities, but last night's kill could have been from the scum team with two left, from the team with three left, both teams could have been on the lynch and one didn't submit or the healer succeeded, neither team could have been on the lynch but there's an SK, or lots of other variations. We just have no idea. Right now I'm going to vote Leelou based on the hammer vote until she gives us something more substantial to work with.

 

I have one other idea about what's going on, but I want to save that for a while.

[bgrishinko]

Okay, about the numbers...

 

Simply this, if I took every combination of people on the list like:

 

Song Black BG

Song Black Aust

Song Black Drew

Song Black Curt

Song Black Talm

Song Black csarmi

Song Black Red

Song BG Aust

Song BG Drew

etc.

etc.

 

There were 84 combinations for night 1. Each person shows up on 28 of these ^^^.

Night two is more complicated because it could have been a team of 2 or 3 based on the rule of 3. So I had to add the 2 together.

 

I don't know, I think it was the Computer Scientist in me looking to analyze everything empirically.

 

Bah. Nevermind. Looks like I'm just confusing people.

[CurtisScafe]

I get you BG. I wrote a program that will pick the scum for us. I just need to refine it...

 

 

J/K

 

i think you are over analyzing it.

I think we should focus on these people. Theey were on both lynches:

Talmanes,

Aust,

csarmi,

Drew,

Song,

BG,

 

I am kinda leaning towards Drew since he was so fast to put together an argument against someone who isnt on the red hot list

[Talmanes]

I agree with needing to watch those on both lynches, but there is a problem with that too.

Assuming there are two scum teams, which I think has been fairly well agreed on, we have still had only one kill each night.

The first night Mav was NK'd, and that makes it somewhat obvious it was because he didn't vote on the lynch, the other team did not get a kill. The other teammates may or may not have been on the lynch, we cannot know.

On night two IIRC the scene suggests that it was a different group. I'll go back to the scenes to clarify, but that means that we can presume that the now group of two were both on the lynch, which is statistically easier for them now, and that one or more of the other mafia team's members were not on the lynch.

Basically it means that all of the mafia members will not necessarily be in the 'both lynches' category, though we can generally assume some of them are.

[Talmanes]

Yeah it is like I thought, one NK takes place in the Rebel Camp and the other takes place in Elayne's palace in Andor. This, to me, means that two different teams did the two NKs.

 

 

 

It was still dark out. The rebel camp was quiet. In the early morning hours, many Aes Sedai still slept. One of them, alone in her tent, had no idea what was coming for her. She had no idea that she had been marked for death...by her own superiors.

 

It had to be done while she slept, of course. To make sure she wouldn't try and use the One Power to defend herself. Her attacker slipped quietly into her tent and quickly embraced the Source. Moria was dead before she could ever wake up.

 

(Mav) Moria, Black Ajah, has been nightkilled.

 

Day 2 begins. With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

 

 

Wow, you guys know how to kill some discussion

 

Yukiri reached her dark rooms shortly before dawn. It was a little frightening, being out at night, when one was hunting the Black Ajah. But she'd only just returned from another secret meeting with some of the few Sister she could trust. The Black Ajah wasn't sleeping. Neither could she.

 

What she didn't realize was that someone was waiting for her in her room. It was pitch black, and the intruder had been cautious and inverted the weaves she had already prepared to spring on her unknowing victim. Yukiri was dead before she hit the floor.

 

(Wombat) Yukiri, Gray Ajah, has been nightkilled.

 

Day 3 begins. With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

 

- - - - - - -

 

SOMETHING YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF: THERE IS A WAY FOR A MAFIA TEAM TO GAIN A PERMANENT NIGHTKILL.

[Alanna]

*gasp* I didn't write Moria in the right font!

[csarmi]

Well, Moria was in the Rebel camp and Yukiri in the tower. The palace was the lynch.

That's a lot of conjectures there, too many assumptions.

 

I think that the scenes and the opening message are mostly flavour, we shouldn't read too much into them.

[bgrishinko]

 

I am kinda leaning towards Drew since he was so fast to put together an argument against someone who isnt on the red hot list

 

You make a good point about Drew. Plus, for what it is worth, he was in the 2nd half of both lynches. That may not mean much alone, but combined with his other actions, there may be something here.

[mmeeshal]

I'd be cool with a Drew lynch, based on that and what I said about him yesterDay.

[bgrishinko]

Yeah it is like I thought, one NK takes place in the Rebel Camp and the other takes place in Elayne's palace in Andor. This, to me, means that two different teams did the two NKs.

 

 

Well, Moria was in the Rebel camp and Yukiri in the tower. The palace was the lynch.

That's a lot of conjectures there, too many assumptions.

 

I think that the scenes and the opening message are mostly flavour, we shouldn't read too much into them.

 

I agree with csarmi on this point. I think that the scenes are mainly flavor. There is a slight chance that they may have some hints, but from my experience in Mafia games, the Mod doesn't like to reveal clues in their posts.

 

That being said, with Team B having less members than Team A, I'm of the opinion that it would be easier for Team B to get a NK last night.

 

Also what better way to frame a bunch of people who were on the Day 1 lynch... seeing that a bunch of Day 1ners were on the Day 2 vote, rush the end of the vote (leelou) to frame those 6 and distract from yourself. Obviously not all the 6 are mafia.

[DrewRiley]

I am kinda leaning towards Drew since he was so fast to put together an argument against someone who isnt on the red hot list

 

This argument doesn't make any sense, Curt, unless you think each person on the "red hot list" is on my scum team. Your implication is that I'm trying to draw attention away from everyone on that list. I would try to put together a wagon against someone on that list who wasn't on my team.

[hotpocket2006]

Sorry Guys I am doing Army stuff this weekend. Am scarce. Just saw percentages and my mind went blank, like literally. Will come back with thoughts later.

[Blackhoof]

On a related note, we know that there are 2 mafia teams (at least) since one of the teams killed another BA. That makes me suspicious of Krak and leelou as well. It is quite possible that the other Mafia team who is short one member moved in last night and the 1st night mafia split up... or not, maybe it was the same team... I'm getting myself confused looking at the possibilities involved there and my head hurts. Too many possible iterations of blue players mixed with red... I'm going to go do some math, then I'll be back.

 

while i agree with you, we cannot assume that there are two teams yet. it is possible there is a solo. Also, i think that if there were two teams, they would have no contact with each other or know each other as per the usual BA rules. They couldn't coordinate to take turns or anything i think because if they could, they would know each other and not kill a teammate. we can only assume that the two hypothetical teams are both trying to get on a lynch, unless one or the other decides to forgo it.

 

 

This argument doesn't make any sense, Curt, unless you think each person on the "red hot list" is on my scum team. Your implication is that I'm trying to draw attention away from everyone on that list. I would try to put together a wagon against someone on that list who wasn't on my team.

 

slip of the tongue much?

 

VOTE DREW

[alannalynn]

I dunno, I always thought Phelix's argument on Day 1 for scum being in groups of 3 was dead on. I mean, Black Ajah Hearts (this is BA mafia right?) have 3 members, if you were to have a 4-6 person mafia team, they'd be too obvious on a lynch. And having two teams evens out the effects of a NK. Like they're fighting for the kill of the night. Or they can both get it. I see it more likely to be 2 teams than a team and a sk, but that's just me. Also, shame on you people for lynching Phelix day 1, that lynch was WAY too fast for no deadline and the basis of it was faulty. If you want to find the scum, they're probably hiding somewhere in that lynch, especially those that rushed in to vote in desperation for a lynch. I think we'll do better sorting out the scum with more thought out lynches as opposed to the rush ones.

 

Interesting Drew, care to elaborate on your scum team? ? ?

[bgrishinko]

I am kinda leaning towards Drew since he was so fast to put together an argument against someone who isnt on the red hot list

 

This argument doesn't make any sense, Curt, unless you think each person on the "red hot list" is on my scum team. Your implication is that I'm trying to draw attention away from everyone on that list. I would try to put together a wagon against someone on that list who wasn't on my team.

 

I think it is obvious that Drew is talking using Curt's Drew accusation as "truth." A sort of, "If I were scum..." way of saying things. I think it obvious from the bolded part.

[DrewRiley]

 

slip of the tongue much?

 

VOTE DREW

 

I think AJ's comment was sarcastic, but, really, Blackhoof? Is this how you hunt scum, vote for the people who use hypotheticals?

 

Ninja'd by BG.

[bgrishinko]

[csarmi]

My net connection is shitty for some reason so I don't know how often I'll be online this weekend. Just thought you'd like to know.

[CurtisScafe]

I am kinda leaning towards Drew since he was so fast to put together an argument against someone who isnt on the red hot list

 

This argument doesn't make any sense, Curt, unless you think each person on the "red hot list" is on my scum team. Your implication is that I'm trying to draw attention away from everyone on that list. I would try to put together a wagon against someone on that list who wasn't on my team.

Maybe, but then you might be doing that to try to throw us off

[DrewRiley]

I am kinda leaning towards Drew since he was so fast to put together an argument against someone who isnt on the red hot list

 

This argument doesn't make any sense, Curt, unless you think each person on the "red hot list" is on my scum team. Your implication is that I'm trying to draw attention away from everyone on that list. I would try to put together a wagon against someone on that list who wasn't on my team.

Maybe, but then you might be doing that to try to throw us off

 

WIFOM at its best my friend

[Krakalakachkn]

We have yet to hear from Leelou about anything since berf was lynched. I'd like to hear his/her reasoning for that last second hammer before berf could reveal anything. So, for now, my suspicions rest on him/her.

 

Vote Leelou

[csarmi]

Vote leelou.

 

The more I think about it, the more scummy I'm finding that hammer.

 

I mean, Song comes and says she would put Berf at L-3. She's wrong. I tend to believe her that it was a genuine error on her part, but that's not the point here.

 

The point is that leelou's action is unexplainable. Why was she in such a hurry to post her vote?

 

Berf, you have been very contradictory and did start the vote on Phelix. You are coming off scummy, your defense is not helping much and I am going to unvote and vote Berf

 

Good enough reasoning. But it's the hammer vote! That is not something you cast on a reasoning like that, or if you do, at least you point it out (that for this reason you're willing to cast the hammer). Song giving a wrong count is no excuse in my opinion, if you're about to put someone at L-1 or L, you'd better check what's going on and it's not like it was very hard to readup and find the error.

 

Also, why hurry so much, again? Afraid to miss the train? Who would be afraid of that, so very afraid that she doesn't take a look, just come in and cast?

 

We were in no particular hurry and Berf might have said more with just that pressure (okay, no defending Berf's action anyway cause he made it really hard to stop that train too).

 

For that, I think my vote is safe on leelou. I guess we've found our first scum there.

 

Also, heavy FOS on bgshrinko for the same reason. Take a look around before you cast the L-1. Unless you're maffia of course, waiting for your train...

[Leelou]

Vote leelou.

 

The more I think about it, the more scummy I'm finding that hammer.

 

I mean, Song comes and says she would put Berf at L-3. She's wrong. I tend to believe her that it was a genuine error on her part, but that's not the point here.

 

The point is that leelou's action is unexplainable. Why was she in such a hurry to post her vote?

 

Berf, you have been very contradictory and did start the vote on Phelix. You are coming off scummy, your defense is not helping much and I am going to unvote and vote Berf

 

Good enough reasoning. But it's the hammer vote! That is not something you cast on a reasoning like that, or if you do, at least you point it out (that for this reason you're willing to cast the hammer). Song giving a wrong count is no excuse in my opinion, if you're about to put someone at L-1 or L, you'd better check what's going on and it's not like it was very hard to readup and find the error.

 

Also, why hurry so much, again? Afraid to miss the train? Who would be afraid of that, so very afraid that she doesn't take a look, just come in and cast?

 

We were in no particular hurry and Berf might have said more with just that pressure (okay, no defending Berf's action anyway cause he made it really hard to stop that train too).

 

For that, I think my vote is safe on leelou. I guess we've found our first scum there.

 

Also, heavy FOS on bgshrinko for the same reason. Take a look around before you cast the L-1. Unless you're maffia of course, waiting for your train...

 

I felt that berf had contradicted himself by starting the vote on Phelix that aligned with his own beliefs of how the is being game run. The quotes had been brought up a few times throughout the day and I did not feel the need to become redundant. Berf had posted after every vote on him and over 8 minutes before I voted him. He had plenty of time to say who his character was within the rules stated by Alanna in the opening post. He was coming off very scummy and he really had not stated anything to make me change my mind. Had he said he was Elayne I would have kept my vote on blackhoof.

 

As for Talmanes questions about my cases: I pretty much posted them without quotes and not as much in depth as I had wanted. During Day 1/2 RL had me really busy. Excuses, I know, but I tried the best I could. I had moved from Florida to Massachusetts, helped my sister with a few photo shoots, did not have access to my computer and have had a migraine the past few days. I do have people I'm looking at, you being one of them, but my head is still pounding so I can't really be on much longer.

 

Krak - I'm a she. :)

[CurtisScafe]

VOTE DREW for my reasoning before

I'm not jumping on Leelou just because of a miscount. There were also a few others who jumped on the bandwagon and they arent being looked at even though they are on the Red list