[Advanced Mafia] Black Ajah - GAME OVER!

Red2111 · April 4, 2011

Red, are you suggesting that we have an SK who knows the people in the rebel camp and keeps killing them? Or just keeps killing the black ajah? Now from game's PoV, how would that make sense?

no CS. i'm suggesting that theres as much chance for there being a SK & a scum group (ie: BA) in this game both with kills; instead of just thinking it's two scum groups.

the kill on the BA was just dumb luck tbh, whether it was another scum group or SK. dumb luck in our favor of course, but still dumb luck.

basically Drew had more compelling reasons to vote for Blackhoof but stated he was certain that Phelix was scum and managed to slip himself neatly onto the lynch train.

Then, when the hammer fell, he was loudly proclaiming how fast the lynch built up and he might have unvoted if he'd gotten online before the hammer fell, which doesn't make any sense if he was as positive of Phelix's guilt as he originally claimed to be. Also, it had a hint of "I didn't really want to lynch a townie, guys, I was actually kind of against it" which would be fine, except the coroner report hadn't been given yet.

this i can go with. i typically don't liek to link people in this game, but if Drew does flip scum i think we should go for Blackie next. right now i find Blackie to be the scummiest person, and i have to say the lack of pressure on him from others has me confused.

if Drew flips scum, then his reluctance to vote Blackie (who he had more reason to vote at the time) will speak more to Blackie being a possible scum mate to me.

it doesn't really link them, but imo would implicate Blackie a bit more. note that i still find Blackie to be not only the scummiest but the best lynch for today. there was alot more interation surrounding him yesturday than there was Drew, so more info gained. plus alot of us did agree that his actions from yesturday were scummy. i can go with a Drew lynch though based on what meesh pointed out.

i also think pressuring Aust a bit more might bare fruit. his whole dismissive attitude toward the idea a SK might be in the game wreeks.

Leelou · April 4, 2011

I don't want to seem inactive. I'm at my sister's house right now and do not have my computer with my mostly completed cases and extensive notes. So sorry no quotes, just going to post my small notes I have with me.

During day 1 Blackhoof was coming off very strong with trying to get a lynch going on Phelix with no deadline and there was more time for discussion. After re-reading the whole back and forth between them I was getting a very scummy vibe off of Blackhoof.

Another couple of things that stuck out was when Talmanes changed his vote from Blackhoof, whom he found scummy, to Phelix who he wasn't so sure about. The reason this stuck out was that Blackhoof did have votes on him, he was acting scummy, and there was no deadline.

The other thing that really stuck out was that Curt was very quiet all day and came in to bandwagon neatly near the end.

I will have to go back and do a re-read for myself to check out the drew situation. Right now I could go either way with that.

I believe we will get information off a Blackhoof vote, but when I get home and can look over my cases, and another look at drew, my vote might change.

Talmanes · April 4, 2011

Ok I'm seriously tired of hearing this, throwing out suspicions with no or minimal reasoning isn't helpful, and looks scummy to me.

Krak voted you, giving you a second vote, when you and Wombat were becoming the most popular people to vote. It could have easily started a bandwagon, and WAS the second vote on you, which would be fine, but he had no good/real reasoning. You may not consider a second pointless vote a bandwagon, but that is how it begins. That is why I voted for Krak. When I had a better reason to vote someone else, I did. Day one reasoning isn't usually the best. I went with what I had.

Does anyone else see a contradiction here?

It's Day 2 now. :wink:

Day one vote reasoning isn't the best, it is Day 2 now, I expect better reasoning now.

DrewRiley · April 4, 2011

Okay, my computer refused to charge last night so it died before I finished my reread. >.<

But it charged up this morning, still is charging, in fact, so I finished the reread and am here to post thoughts!

I actually think, of everyone, that Drew is most likely to be scum. It wasn't his vote on Talm that did it for me, though; it started with his post giving reasons for suspecting Blackhoof and Phelix (and the vote on Phelix), and I've only gotten more and more suspicious of him since then.

I hate going back and quoting posts but I'll do it if enough people need their memories refreshed; basically Drew had more compelling reasons to vote for Blackhoof but stated he was certain that Phelix was scum and managed to slip himself neatly onto the lynch train.

Then, when the hammer fell, he was loudly proclaiming how fast the lynch built up and he might have unvoted if he'd gotten online before the hammer fell, which doesn't make any sense if he was as positive of Phelix's guilt as he originally claimed to be. Also, it had a hint of "I didn't really want to lynch a townie, guys, I was actually kind of against it" which would be fine, except the coroner report hadn't been given yet.

Anyway, that was what mainly pinged me, so I'm going to vote Drew.

Mmeesh - You raise good points, tbh. I'm a little embarrassed because I was really, really convinced that Phelix was scum because of the three thing. I got a bit of tunnel vision there. I don't agree that I had more compelling reasons to vote Blackhoof, and I stated that I was unsure about Blackhoof's alignment because he was lynched as scum in the game I just played with him and acted much the same on the first day, but I didn't know if that might just be how Blackhoof acts. And me being regretful of how fast the hammer fell was sincere - I was in early on the Phelix lynch, which looks really bad now, but all I can say is that I didn't think it would take off so quickly. And to your last point, that I was already saying "I didn't want to lynch a townie," even if I were scum, I wouldn't have known Phelix was a townie. He could have just as easily been on the other scum team.

So I definitely understand your points, the truth is that I just made an early judgment on Phelix and it fell the wrong way.

Alanna · April 4, 2011

Vote Count:

Blackhoof (3) - Red, Berf, leelou

Song (1) - Wombat

Drew (2) - Krak, Meesh

Wombat (1) - Blackhoof

Not Voting (9): Curt, Tynaal, Aust, Song, Player, Drew, csarmi, Thorum, Talmanes

With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Alanna · April 4, 2011

It looks like BG will be replacing a player, and I'm looking for another replacement as well.

Aust · April 4, 2011

A massive force moves steadily northward across the earth, a rebel army of Aes Sedai and their soldiers, ready to wage battle on the White Tower. But murder is being done among them, a Forsaken hidden in their camp. Egwene al'Vere and her rebel Hall are pushed and prodded from the shadows, by the Black agents who wish to force them to their will.

Aust, i've read the OP and i've even provided it above. notice the wording of the sentence, the sturcture. it talks specifically about murder being done, then theres a comma which indicates more info specifically relating to or included with the first part of the sentence.

also, as i've said before. if we recall the cannon surrounding the Saladar little tower; there was a single Forsaken doing the killing; not a group of BA. also, if you look at the murder itself here in the game; it talks abotu it being done while Mav was asleep. in the books, the murders commited by Arnie in Saladar were done at night while the victims were asleep. in the books Arnie wa a solo agent (aka SK) in Saladar on orders from Mordin to cause chaos any way possible.

it seems to me that your trying really hard to squash and convo or speculation about the possability of a SK being in this game. FOS @ Aust.

Red, you FOS everyone who disagrees with you, and it gets frustrating to try to discuss things. FOS right back at you for trying so hard to push the idea that there's an SK and completely dismiss the idea that there could be a second group. Why aren't you even willing to discuss this possibility without freaking out with your giant FOS finger that you lash around with like a laser? (although admittedly, a laser finger would be cool lol!!).

I'm not saying I'm right, but I am saying that you have to be careful about jumping to conclusions. I also think we have to be particularly careful about using 'canon' to justify our conclusions. Let's deal with the evidence we have at hand. We had a BA die, and we don't know how or why. It could have been a scum aligned SK, which would mean of course that the SK and scum team don't know each other. It could have been a second scum team - heck it even could have been a mirror or something. We won't really be able to start making good conclusions about this until another night cycle passes and we see what happens with the number of NK's.

As for Blackhoof, he is always erratic in games and it makes him hard to read.

Now, for Drew I'm going to go back and look at the specific posts myself. If what you're concluding is true though Meesh that's a good catch.

Aust · April 4, 2011

Oh and one last thought on the SK business - everyone is on a team in this game from what I understand, and the mod has stated that the scum are not mixed in with other teams.

That means the SK would have to be on a scum team of some kind. PM the mod and confirm this if you like.

bgrishinko · April 5, 2011

BG joined the group!

Hello there all, good to be here.

bgrishinko · April 5, 2011

I'm thinking in a game like this, our best info will come from seeing who is on a lynch when a nk succeeds. Therefore I'm focusing on those folks. For now, I need to get all caught up though.

bgrishinko · April 5, 2011

Berf, Song, Blackhoof, Tynaal(BG), Aust, Drew, Curt, Talmanes, csarmi, Red

Ah, looks like I was on the lynch too. So... FOS myself? Ha.

Anyway, so far after a quick read through Blackhoof and Talmanes seem to be pinging me the most. csarmi and Red also swooped in on the end of the vote though which needs considering considering earlier posts by both of them. In all honesty, I'm not sure Tynaal's motives on the Phelix lynch, but the teams of 3 thing would have been sufficient for me for a day 1 vote. I can see how that information would be deduced from the books, but the adamant straight forward way it was presented with an explanation seemed like a slip of the tongue to me.

To put on the pressure for now I'll Vote Blackhoof

Blackhoof · April 5, 2011

really, the argument that there is a serial killer or a second team is academic.

we have no way of knowing until either we lynch the serial killer, or no-one is lynched. (the latter meaning that neither scum team was able to get all their members on a lynch, since the SK cannot pass up a kill i do not think.)

berf · April 5, 2011

My thoughts:

If I were BA/Scum, and I had knowledge of an SK/Other scum group operating (I think SK personally), I would deliberately -not- vote first night, and bank on the SK getting the kill to cast suspicion on the voters. So I can't completely rule out the non-voters yet. Until the BA was lynched, I think we all sort of assumed one group of 3 BA, I know I did anyway, so it could have been a brilliant tactic, until they shot the wrong dude :P

Also, with one BA down, would that mean that hypothetically (in a team of three), it only requires -two- of them to make a nightkill now?

Just some thoughts I had.

Red2111 · April 5, 2011

Alanna - why is Thorums name crossed out? is it cause he's being replaced??

Red, you FOS everyone who disagrees with you, and it gets frustrating to try to discuss things. FOS right back at you for trying so hard to push the idea that there's an SK and completely dismiss the idea that there could be a second group. Why aren't you even willing to discuss this possibility without freaking out with your giant FOS finger that you lash around with like a laser? (although admittedly, a laser finger would be cool lol!!).

I'm not saying I'm right, but I am saying that you have to be careful about jumping to conclusions. I also think we have to be particularly careful about using 'canon' to justify our conclusions. Let's deal with the evidence we have at hand. We had a BA die, and we don't know how or why. It could have been a scum aligned SK, which would mean of course that the SK and scum team don't know each other. It could have been a second scum team - heck it even could have been a mirror or something. We won't really be able to start making good conclusions about this until another night cycle passes and we see what happens with the number of NK's.

no, Aust, i don't FOS anyone who disagrees with me; just when people do something i find scummy or off kilter. trying to discredit the possability that there might be a SK in the game makes me suspect you for being a possible SK. this is why i FOS you. it's an odd reaction for a townie to have imo and worth not only noting but also pressuring.

i'm not trying to dismiss that there might be a second scum team instead of a SK; just that i think it's more likely given my interpretation of the storyline given by Alanna and the cannon from which this game is based on. granted i do agree that basing an opinion like this souly off cannon is a mistake, this is why i point mostly to the story Alanna has given so far. Mods are known to drop hints and clues in their storys.

as for a SK being on a team, and Alanna telling use that all players are on teams; i always leave the possability in my head that when i ask a mod a question there could be a reason why the mod isn't telling the truth. i'm not accusing Alanna of lieing, but from a Mod stand point; if i did have a SK in my game it's most likely a twist i had planned ot make the game exciting and therefore i wouldn't give it away by saying "all but 1 player is on a team" even giving a PAFO (Play & Find Out) answer for this question would hint that all players aren't on teams.

csarmi · April 5, 2011

Well, Alanna never told us that every team has at least two membbers, I give you that, but she did imply that strongly (look up what she told me in the sign up thread).

Aust · April 5, 2011

Red, again I can flip the same argument at you. Trying so hard to say that there is not a second team is an odd reaction for a townie, and it makes me wonder if you're on a second team trying really hard to disguise the idea that there might be 2 teams. Berf made a good point on this is his post above.

Particularly given that it's a huge stretch to assume there is a SK on the lose compared to what we know. We know there are teams. We know that everyone is on a team. We know that there are no scum mixed in with the teams. Quite reasonable to presume that we have 2 teams of scum then - until we have evidence otherwise, and then we have to revise our conclusion.

But as Blackwood said, this is all an academic discussion - the only reason why knowing that would help us is that it means we can't rule anyone out based on yesterday's voting.

My question is why are you digging your heels in so hard on this issue? If you're just really sure that you're right and I'm wrong, I'd say let it go for now, as it will just be a distracting argument that once again will get us nowhere. If you've got something more invested in this, then by all means carry on - I'll be quite interested to see where it leads you.

Krakalakachkn · April 5, 2011

My thoughts:

I think we all sort of assumed one group of 3 BA, I know I did anyway, so it could have been a brilliant tactic, until they shot the wrong dude :P

I'm sorry, so what you're saying is that even though you secretly agreed with Phelix about the 3 BA members, you still were one of the first to vote him because he said that he thought there were 3 members?

You lynched a guy for having the exact same idea as you just with more balls because he said it aloud?

Vote Berf

Alanna · April 5, 2011

AJ will be replacing Thorum. (And yes, that's why his name was crossed out)

alannalynn · April 5, 2011

Well hello! Give me some time to catch up with these 8 pages and I'll probably be more talkative than Thorum. lol

CurtisScafe · April 5, 2011

I dont know why everyone jumped on him for the teams of 3. I mean it's simple math

Red broke it down here a bit but I think she was flawed in saying that the BA is spread and grouped in with good as Alanna confirmed. http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/57920-advanced-mafia-black-ajah-game-on/page__view__findpost__p__1797795

With 18 people it makes sense that there would be roughly 2x good than bad. SO 12 good 6 bad

Now that we have seen that one of the 6 is acting alone or we have 2 groups of BA that dont know about each other

I want to Vote Blackhoof because he was sticking out a lot on day 1. It was between him and Phelix and well he is dead so that leaves Black

berf · April 5, 2011

My thoughts:

I think we all sort of assumed one group of 3 BA, I know I did anyway, so it could have been a brilliant tactic, until they shot the wrong dude :P

I'm sorry, so what you're saying is that even though you secretly agreed with Phelix about the 3 BA members, you still were one of the first to vote him because he said that he thought there were 3 members?

You lynched a guy for having the exact same idea as you just with more balls because he said it aloud?

Vote Berf

Assume is one thing. State it as a rule? That's why I went phelix. *shrug*

Krakalakachkn · April 6, 2011

He said plenty of times that he was just guessing . I'm just saying man, it sounds suspicious.

Talmanes · April 6, 2011

You know, I agree with Krak here. Berf was the first vote on Phelix with this post:

Unvote

VOTE PHELIX

1) The rule of 3 sounds like a slip of the black, black tongue.

2) Jumping down Aust's throat to manufacture excuses.

His main reason for voting is the rule of 3 thing, which he claims he agreed with the whole time in this post:

My thoughts:

If I were BA/Scum, and I had knowledge of an SK/Other scum group operating (I think SK personally), I would deliberately -not- vote first night, and bank on the SK getting the kill to cast suspicion on the voters. So I can't completely rule out the non-voters yet. Until the BA was lynched, I think we all sort of assumed one group of 3 BA, I know I did anyway, so it could have been a brilliant tactic, until they shot the wrong dude :P

Also, with one BA down, would that mean that hypothetically (in a team of three), it only requires -two- of them to make a nightkill now?

Just some thoughts I had.

If he agreed with the 3 thing, then why would he use that as his main reasoning for being the FIRST vote on someone. To me his post now is trying to back out of the lynch he started on Phelix, and appear innocent. These two posts to me, are a complete contradiction.

Vote Berf

csarmi · April 6, 2011

Well, as I'm starting to feel better (has been sick you know, still am I'm sure but no fever anymore), I thought I'd take a look on the thread. I didn't do a re-read, but Krak's post made me lookup/complete my Berf notes and they're intriguing.

Unvote

VOTE PHELIX

1) The rule of 3 sounds like a slip of the black, black tongue.

2) Jumping down Aust's throat to manufacture excuses.

I think the first player to vote Phelix on the 3-thing.

Aust (3) - Meesh, Krak, Phelix

That seems perhaps, a little sus group of people right about there.

Wombat (3) - Song, Tynaal, Csarmi

That has gone completely beneath my radar...

Random FOS?

One more post on why he's kinda mute, replying to Phelix (post #177)

Snap. That sucks.

Well, let's look at the debris then.

Phelix (10) - Berf, Song, Blackhoof, Tynaal, Aust, Drew, Curt, Talmanes, csarmi, Red

3 or 6 (if we follow the 'heart rule of 3') of the above are scum.

I can vouch for myself, I get bad vibes from Blackhoof, the rest it's a bit early for me to tell.

I get the feeling it's a forsaken acting without knowledge of the BA group.

Or some unknown power that is going to mess with us.

At any rate,

VOTE BLACKHOOF

Something just smells wrong there.

My thoughts:

If I were BA/Scum, and I had knowledge of an SK/Other scum group operating (I think SK personally), I would deliberately -not- vote first night, and bank on the SK getting the kill to cast suspicion on the voters. So I can't completely rule out the non-voters yet. Until the BA was lynched, I think we all sort of assumed one group of 3 BA, I know I did anyway, so it could have been a brilliant tactic, until they shot the wrong dude :P

Also, with one BA down, would that mean that hypothetically (in a team of three), it only requires -two- of them to make a nightkill now?

Just some thoughts I had.

Now the last three quotes paint an interesting picture. All that contradiction all over the place (or am I just seeing things?). Few meaningful posts (this is about all the posts Berf has made).

I'm not gonna vote just now, as that would require a more serious readup and I think there's time still, but I'd definitely like to hear from Berf on all this.

csarmi · April 6, 2011

And yes I know some of those points (on Berf) were raised already, but I thought I'd just give the whole picture. Yea that's like the whole of Berf's meaningful posts.

In case it's not clear what I want with those last three qutes, 1+3? 3/6? forsaken? not forsaken? fishing? now what?

[Advanced Mafia] Black Ajah - GAME OVER!

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