Military Leadership During the Last Battle

[ctonn]

Just want to throw some questions out there and see what you guys think.

Who do you think should lead the armies of the Light? What would be the military hierarchy? What place would the Great Captains have when compared to Mat and Perrin, The Generals of the Seanchan and Aiel Clan Chiefs. How will the Aes Sedai and Asha'man figure in to the overall plan?

 

What do we know about the location and movements of the current armies in Randland? How much firepower do you think each nation can bring to the table?

 

What do you estimate to be the number of soldiers in each country, clan, seanchan army available to the light?

 

What do you estimate the number oftrollocs andmyrdrall(sp) to be available to the Dark One.

 

How Will the Light Counter such numbers?

 

Hoping to hear from military and strategy buffs as battle scenes and strategy are one of my favorite aspects of WoT. :)

[Luckers]

It's looking like the major generals in play will be Mat, Inturalde, Bryne, Galgan and probably some of the Aiel Clan Chiefs.

 

I exclude Bashere because increasingly its looking like he is going to die. Perhaps Algemar will play a key part too.

 

ARMED FORCES

 

Borderlanders - Including forces left in the Borderlands i'd guess 250,000. Merillile estimated the army in Andor to have 200,000 and we know they left a significant force behind.

 

Rand's Forces - around 400,000 Aiel split between Tear and Arad Domon. Cairhein and Tear, i'm guessing, could marshal somewhere around 150,000 each when all is said and done, though this is never pinned down. My guess comes based of Andoran numbers, and Andor is the strongest nation in the world. Illian is likely stronger, given Sammael's avid recruitment program... so maybe 200,000. Altogether thats 900,000 that he can marshal.

 

Andor - Elayne said that if they gathered all their warriors they could barely match the borderlanders--so 200,000.

 

Inturalde - Has marshalled two armies altogether 300,000. Wether he will be able to retain the Taraboners following the battle with the Seanchan is unknown. Additionally many will be lost in the battle with the Seanchan, unless Rhuarc, Rand or Tuon intervene following the treaty. I expect his forces will be down to around 200,000 by the time the Last battle begins.

 

The Aes Sedai - Gawyn estimates that the Rebels have 50,000 spread in two camps, and Elaida ordered the guard raised to 50,000 long ago. So following reunification 100,000. I suspect maybe 10,000 will die in the seanchan attack. 90,000.

 

The White Cloaks - 7,000.

 

The Legion of the Dragon - it was 15,000 in aCoS but given Taims... verocious recruiting campeign i wouldn't be surprised if this hadn't tripelled. Nevertheless ill place this at 30,000... and if they get their hands on Mat's crossbow bolts...

 

The Band of the Red Hand - I think 16,000 if i understand that talk of banners. Egwene places them at 10,000 in PoD so it seems a likely number. He has six thousand horse, five thousand foot, four thousand crossbowman and a thousand masons.

 

Dragonsworn - Less of an issue now. Those with Masema were mostly slaughtered in the battle with the Shaido, and those that arn't seem to have been gathered up by Inturalde or Taim.

 

The Seanchan - dificult to calculate. I believe a force of around 8,000 will be attacking Tar Valon. And army of maybe 100,000 has followed a man named Turan after Inturalde, where i suspect it will be decimated. Based on Suroth's comments i suspect that was about half the armed forces the Seanchan had in Tarabon, so another 100,000. Tylee has 15,000 under her. With another large army of around 30,000 wandering about in Altara. Given the frequency of the mention of the Seanchan forces, and how spread out they are, with Altaran, Taraboner and Amadacian conscripts present... i'd place their numbers at around 800,000. But that is a very loose guess. Remember too they have the only air force in the world, and the only force literally capable of going toe to toe with a Trolloc, and coming out on top... cept for maybe the Ogier.

 

Murandy - I think Murandy is underestimated. Due to contentions they have a standing army that is quite large due to the fact that each Lord and Lady has their own force... now all of which is united behind Roedan. I reckon they might even have 100,000 or more. However, i also suspect that Roedan is either Demandred, or under his control... so...

 

Ogier - Who knows... i doubt they'd be able to muster a large force... but they could be effective. Lets say maybe 10,000

 

CHANNELERS

 

Black Tower - Around 1000 now, though that may have climbed. 100 Darkfriends and 900 Light.

 

White Tower - 2200. Including all Aes Sedai, and novices. I'd place around 300 Black Ajah... to be kind. The disposition of the novices is unimportant, since they will be used like batteries in circels. 1900.

 

Wise Ones - Based on the Shaido, 5500. Lets be extremely kind and give a third to the Shadow. 1875 Dark and 3625 light

 

Seanchan - Hard to say. They get every sparker, and the Seanchan have a much much larger population by all accounts. Plus they've taken loads of new damane since ariving (randoms, the shaido, the windfinders, the kin... loads). I'll give them 6,000 and think thats conservative. It might only be 4,000, or may be as high as 8,000. Not many darkfriends amongst the sul'dam, so i wont give any to the Shadow.

 

The Kin - Given likely losses to the Seanchan i'll put them at 1,300. No darkfriends.

 

The Windfinders - Given ship distribution, presense of apprentices and so forth, i'd guess around 3,000. Being kind ill give a third to the shadow. 1,000 dark and 2,000 light.

 

CONCLUSION

 

Armed Forces of the Light - 2, 253, 000. That isn't including Murandy, who may be Shadow.

 

Channeling Forces of the Light - 15,725

 

Channeling Forces of the Dark - 3,275

 

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS

 

Given the disparate amount of Dark Channelers, and RJ's insistance that the Light is in a bad way, there are some other possible considerations.

 

1. Aiel Male Channelers. Have been going north for a very long time. Possibly been turned to the Shadow. I'd suggest around 1000... remember, 1/4 would have died.

 

2. Taim. I believe that Taim was trained a while back by Ishamael (when Ishy first suspect Rand's birth), and sent out to start training men who can channel for the Shadow. Since this must have been done by Ishy for the Trolloc Wars (since we know men fought in those wars, and someone must have gathered and trained them) i think this is very likely. Moreover, i suspect there might be women out there doing the same thing. The Aes Sedai ignored wilders and those channelers that never bothered to come to the Tower, and the Kin never recruited... they only accepted Tower dropouts which leaves a fairly massive (even with recent recruitments) untapped force. This scenario matches Taims comments of his past--he admits to trying to train people, but claims they went insane... if Taim is a darkfriend, as seems likely, then those men would have had the option of joining the dark.

 

Still, a furtive operation at best... even with a whole bunch of people doing it... My guess would put it at around 2,000... but ill be kind and say 4,000, just because.

 

3. The Sharans. They are a massive untapped force... but there are some problems. They are ruled by the channelers from the background, which means a monolithic organisation with diffused circles of power. They use compulsion all the time in their ruling, which would make it hard to control them in this manner. Additionally from purely plot perspective it would be hard to swallow... the Aiel Instant Army was hard to swallow, and he spent the better part of two books doing that.

 

4. The Land of the Madmen... i believe this is where the shadow has been gathering channelers... the stories about the place strike me as a massive smokescreen... but meh. Alternatively it might be a ripe recruitment area for the Shadow. ill given them 4,000 channelers too... male and female.

 

If these are true, it boosts the number of Dark Channelers to 12,275. A much more even number.

 

*sigh*. Thats, near as i can tell, the current distribution of forces. I havn't speculated on the number of shadowspawn... but it will more them probably be greater then the forces of the Light... maybe 3 million or more. Likely more.

[ctonn]

Wow, Im seriously impressed :D

 

Btw do you think Mat will be the Top General or Rand or will Rand leave control of that to Mat? I think though that the forces of The Dark are going to outnumber the Light by atleast 10:1 just because of the fact that 100,000 trollocs were considered a minor expedition. What do you guys think?

[KellySedai]

I agree. Just like in LOTR, the baddies will HEAVILY outnumber the goodies. Never fear though, I'm certain that at least 75-80% will be dumb trollocs and/or shadowspawn beasts while the remainder will be channelers. Not looking good for the Light, but they'll come through in the end. ;)

[seoman]

Luckers... impresive, wow.

 

about the comanding of the light forces:

Rand will be the main general with a group of counselors:

Mat general of the red hand, and prince of ravens (he will probably comand the seanchan forces with the aid of some banner capitains as kadere...)

Perrin, the red eagle, and maybe the forces of ghealdan

Lan, malkier

Agelmar jahad(probably the most important strategist of the borderlanders)

Rhuarc and the clan chiefs

Ituralde with the forces of tarabon and arad doman

Dylin as king of tear

Mattin stepaneos as king of illian

Birgitte and gawin will comand the forces of andor and probably the forces of cairhien.

bryne the forces of the white tower

Ewgene the white tower aes sedai

Logain the black tower forces.

 

 

Rand has always shown intelligence to hear the counsel of the clan chiefs, Lan and Mat, and he will probably do the same now; i think he will give the comand to Mat and maybe Perrin (Mat is the best general of all the world, he has never lost a battle and now with aludra and her dragons... he can even beat forces aidded by the power)

[algspkr]

The Legion of the Dragon - it was 15,000 in aCoS but given Taims... verocious recruiting campeign i wouldn't be surprised if this hadn't tripelled. Nevertheless ill place this at 30,000... and if they get their hands on Mat's crossbow bolts...

In aCoS there were 15,000 who were trained and equipped, and from the sound of it that was less than half their number.

[Jellybelly]

There is also the small matter of Shai'tan himself. When he can fix the seasons in place when still bound, and cause reality to waver when gathering his strength, what can he do when becoming unchained to an even greater extent?

[Kaznen]

I think Mat will be the Marshall General of the "Good Guys." Rand can't command his whole army and then take a LoA to go fight the DO. Plus, Rand isn't that great of a general. Even he thinks so. He'll tell Mat what to do and Mat will see it done.

 

And something with Mat. When it comes to fighting Trollocs the Great Captains think about the battles they've studied. Mat, in a way, lived those battles. Also he has knowledge from battles people have forgotten about or there were no survivors (meaning no one to give a first hand account of the battle).

[RobertAlexWillis]

I agree that Mat is certainly the most able, although it would be hard to go wrong with any of the Great Captains ... and Mat has authority with the Seanchan, making him an acceptable overall commander to them as well.

[keravon3]

i think that the shadow will attack first and since the ways are all blocked or at least gaurded they will decend from the blight.

i also belive that mat and the other great generals will lead the army against them as rand leads and army of chanelers (from every nation)to a direct strike on shyle goul(sp?)

leaving some behind of course to fight the dredloard but i think that because or aulders(sp?) dragons there will be less need of them in that area

[Gondring]

Goodness Luckers, great one there!

I havent seen Perrin, Perrin could possibly be right up there with Mat (Rand will trust those close to him, even though Perrin has no liking for battle he's good at what he does, and would be a fantastic person to rally around if needed.)

 

As for numbers, generally Trollocs (orc like fellows) are quick to create, thus always result in higher numbers due to the ease of creation. The thing they lack is quality, which is generally what the good guys have.

Ive never looked over the population estimates or anything, and am so swamped right now ive forgotten numbers. But id guess DF-500k max, LF-250k max Beyond that might be pushing it. Because not everyone can fight, nor will fight. Gotta consider the mothers and children, elderly and sickly who cannot wield a sword.

[Luckers]

Well, on Trollocs... they havn't been coming south for a while, so my guess is that they are prepearing... you know, Trollocs from all through the Blight gathering above the Borderlands.

 

Also, not all of the Ways have been shut. I'm guessing there will be an attack out of the Waygate in Seanchan held land. Something about all the "I'll have to see one of these Trollocs of yours, one day" just makes it seem likely.

[Gondring]

Well if that is the case, about the Ways, Could we not also assume that all the DF Ashaman will possibly open gates to let them through.

Which could lead to a multi-location (Possibly hundreds, every city like kind of thing) battle that stretches across the land, not just one big clash.

Both have possibilities...

[ctonn]

Ya, but didnt Rand put some traps on the ways. If i recall he said that whatever shadow spawn try to go through the ways will have a nasty surprise waiting. Im presuming its some inverted weave that the dreadlords wont even notice. Also dont large number of travellers attract machin shin(sp) the wind that takes your soul? If thats true, how is the DO going to use them to move thousands of trollocs at a time without attracting it?

[Dionysus]

100,000 trollocs were just sent through the ways in KoD. It is still definitely a viable path, for the time being.

[Luckers]

And in reaction Rand's having them shut down. I suspect only a few will be viable for use... some on the shadow coast, and maybe one or two elsewhere.

[Genesis_XVI]

You've always gotta admire the depth of Luckers commitment and knowledge.

 

Anywho, I'd subscribe loyally to the stats Lucker's put forward, with the comment that in many instances they are a little conservative (ie; I think the Legion of the Dragon is well over 50,000 by the time the battle comes).

 

RE: rankings. Rand isn't the general Lews Therin was, and while they share many memories, he couldn't pull it off. He's the undesputable champion and leader of the light, but not their highest ranking military man (kind of like Tuon... she's the empress, she leads the Seanchan, but she's not their highest general - Galgan is - if you know what i mean).

 

So I would put it so:

 

Tier 1) Mat (The Son of All Battles - the mischief maker, the gambler)

Tier 2) Great Captains, Clan Chiefs, Galgan and likes.

Tier 3) Banner Generals, Sept Chiefs and other lesser Generals, like that b!tch Gawyn. And Galad (who isn't a b!tch)

Tier 4) Officers.

 

That's right... Perrin doesn't show... that's cos he's sh!t. Honestly. Now, I know that sounds harsh, and I like Perrin... but he ain't no bloody General (And no... I don't need someone to point out how he devised the plan to beat the Shaido, or defend the Two Rivers from thousands of Trollocs). He's a leader. Just like Egwene, or Rand, or Faile. Not a General. Mat would crap all over him, as would Lan, as would Gawyn, as would Tam (where it's just a military contest).

 

:D You probably don't agree, but that's how I'd call it.

 

-Genesis_XVI

[Luckers]

Lol... thats a mighty nice way of putting it. I would've called me a nerd and been done with it. Heh.

 

I went for the conservative guess in most cases... like, for instance, i believe the Black Tower is probably much closer to 2000 members now, and the Legion could be even higher 50,000. But meh.

[moroten]

I ahevnt read all replies so maybe they have been mentioned, this is just an addition to Luckers well done list.

 

Lan malkier, a lot of malkier is still living in the borderlands. Count 50,000 to hold Tarwin gap who is only malkier at least.

 

Perrin is not a general but will likely play a vital role, I dont know how many wolves he has at his command but they sure are many.

 

And I alwasy figured the Aiel to way bigger than 400,000. When they talked about shaido they could muster around 100,000 fighters and I doubt that 50% of that us due to the breaking. So Rand should have at least 600,000 spears with him but I still believe that to be an understatment.

[Luckers]

In book five Mat states that Rand's seven clans 'almost' double the Shaido, who are described to have 160,000 algai'd'siswai, and the four undecided clans are described as being exactly even. Lets put 'almost' at around 290,000 and add the 160,000 thats 450,000 spear fighters. Then there has been losses... The Aiel fought three very large battles between then and now, and add the fact that there are still Aiel breaking spears and running... to the tuatha'an, back into the Waste and elsewhere. I thought 400,000 was a fairly reasonable guess.

 

You could be very right about Lan... i doubt only the Malkieri will join him.

[algspkr]

I see Perrin leading the forces of the east and the north, while Mat leads the forces of the West and the south.

 

And while Rand may come up with the initial plan for TG I do not see him generaling during the battle.

[moroten]

In book five Mat states that Rand's seven clans 'almost' double the Shaido, who are described to have 160,000 algai'd'siswai, and the four undecided clans are described as being exactly even. Lets put 'almost' at around 290,000 and add the 160,000 thats 450,000 spear fighters. Then there has been losses... The Aiel fought three very large battles between then and now, and add the fact that there are still Aiel breaking spears and running... to the tuatha'an, back into the Waste and elsewhere. I thought 400,000 was a fairly reasonable guess.

 

Yet in the Aiel war only 4 clans went to fight the war. And only when all the nations united did they manage to make any kind of resistance and not even that helped since they managed to kill Laman.

 

Now I know that Aiel are expert tactician and they have a good advantage just because of this. But I still feel that the numbers of the Aiel are still a bit vague.

 

Anyway I dont have any real proof for my contradiction so I might just as well take your word for it.

[Guest Majsju]

And while Rand may come up with the initial plan for TG I do not see him generaling during the battle.

 

I agree with that. I think Rand will take part in making the initial planning, but once the fighting breaks out all over the place, he will lead a strike force directly to SG.

 

But I don't think Mat and Perrin will be leading on the battlefield, since they seem to be crucial for rand's success. Both Min's viewings and the increasing images they have of eachother clearly shows that they must be together, so I think Mat and Perrin will be members of the force going to SG.

[algspkr]

But I don't think Mat and Perrin will be leading on the battlefield, since they seem to be crucial for rand's success. Both Min's viewings and the increasing images they have of eachother clearly shows that they must be together, so I think Mat and Perrin will be members of the force going to SG.

I never thought of that.

[maximus34]

Also what we have to remember about the Aiel and their numbers that have been stated thus far is that only the fighting people have really been taken into account. With something ridiculously large as TG, i would be inclined to believe that ALL Aiel would be fighting. Remember that in a time of need (TG of course being the most need ever) everyone from the blacksmiths to the youngest children able to hold a spear will fight to the death. What greater cause and reason for the Aiel to fight as one than TG.

 

Anyway, was just my 2cents :P