[DPR Mafia] Call-Your-Shot Mafia- Points being posted...

[Alys Kinch]

Either way, it’s still a dead quantity. Still should count on side of mafia. Still would over balance if there are 4 or more mafia.

 

And Kivam, you going up in flames is not totally true, but I'm still waiting for DPR. I must know what my rules are before I say anything to know how to say what I want said.

[Alys Kinch]

What I can say is that I have the unique opportunity of bagging a mafia member out of a specific group. :D

[Talya]

Actually i have to agree with you Nae, that was the first thing I thought when I read those words from Far.

 

but first.. [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow] I can sort of see the logic you are trying to say there about numbers Kiv, just don't ask me to explain it. But I think I know what you mean. I still think it will only provide a massive debate everytime he gets a viewing and in that respect may not be helpful.

 

I'm not keen on a no lynch. Never like the things. The only bonus there, is that if everyone has roles they can start to be used, on a negative note, that includes mafia, sk's, arsonists, poisoners...as well as finders/fortunetellers, healers etc!

 

I think that choosing someone from the Kivam lynch is a pretty good idea. It could increase the chance of getting a mafia. Not that i particularly trust Far, She may well be mafia. But that doesn't make the idea bad.

 

The ones that stand out to me on that list, are Nae. She put it on there to get Kivam to reveal. I think that maybe Ed could be as well. The mafia might well think that the reveal would be useful to them. Especially if he had been finder or healer.

[Kivam]

What I can say is that I have the unique opportunity of bagging a mafia member out of a specific group. :D

 

Um . . . what?

 

What group?

[Far Dareis Mai]

Psh whatever Far.. I'm not bride of chucky... I'm making logical sense.  WHY did you "whine" that the "ONLY" place you can post your ideas is in the "stupid thread"?  It's like you are again trying to subtly point out that you aren't mafia on a team.  It's also the second time this game you have done something like that.

 

(and yes, we kid with each other.. outside of the games I less than three Far :-*)

 

Hmmm...perhaps because I am innocent, and I'm not in fact on a team? I'm certainly not trying to be subtle. In fact, I pretty much feel like I'm rocking Day 1 out, considering yesterday I was bored out of my gourd. :P

[Alys Kinch]

I can't say, but I can say it's out of 3 people. I have to wait for Wes. He didn't say I can't say this time, but last time he did and that might carry over.

[Far Dareis Mai]

So are you saying that this is an ability of your role, or that DPR screwed up and said too much in a pm to you?

[Alys Kinch]

My role.

[Alys Kinch]

DPR has never said too much to me about a game I was in. I do have special abilities though in this game.

[Far Dareis Mai]

That's fine. I simply recall an event where you manage to finagle extra information from the mod...but I believe we were using our alts.

[Naeann]

Saying he won't go up in flames means what he said about the arsonist is true.. isn't.  If one of the other killing ends of these twofers decided to be mischevious they could target Kivam.. thus making everyone believe he lied about what the arsonist could do as well as opening up the arsonist for nks as well.  Or the mafia could decide that it's not worth it.  Yeah they could keep you around.. thus keeping the arsonist under wraps.. risking some other role killing you and having all the people the arsonist picked exploding.  There's a good chance a few mafia members would be in that list of blown up people.  It's like one of those.. chose your way to die things.. set on fire or blown up?  Either way the arsonist can "prime" people to die.. or pick them off one by one.

 

Edit:

I assume she means "group" as in the list she made with the 3 groups on it. (It was her right?)

Far.. EVERYONE is gonna say the are innocent and therefore not on a team.  I'd love to see the mafia player that says, yeah, you are right.. I AM on a team.

[Kivam]

I can't say, but I can say it's out of 3 people. I have to wait for Wes. He didn't say I can't say this time, but last time he did and that might carry over.

 

Alys - who do you think is a lying liar who lies?

[WWWwombat]

Kivam, I don't think your reasoning on the probabilities is right.  Suppose we randomly view tons of people and kill them no matter the result.  In effect, we are just randomly killing people, so imo we should get scum 33% of the time, not 50%.  Now, if we viewed random people and only killed them if we got a certain result, I think we might get scum half the time.

 

Not quite.  Viewing the player essentially pulls them into a new group, for probability purposes.  Black ball white ball again.

 

Balls in the bag have a 25% probability that they are black.

 

I take it out, show it to you, and you flip a coin.  Heads you tell me the truth, tails you lie.  There's a 75% chance you're going to tell me it's white (37.5% chance - i.e. 50% of 75% - its white and accurate; 12.5% - 50% of 25% - chance its black and inaccurate) and a 25% chance you're going to tell me its black (37.5% chance its white and inaccurate; 12.5% chance it's black and accurate).

 

But whatever you tell me - whether you say it's white or black - there's only a 50% chance you're telling the truth.  So if you say it's white, there's a 50% chance that you're telling the truth and it's white, and a 50% chance you're lying and it's black.  If you tell me its black, there's a 50% chance you're telling me the truth and it's black, and a 50% chance you're lying and it's white.

 

Essentially, by introducing the "true or false" percentages into the equation, you've wiped out the original odds.

 

Of course, if you run through all the balls in the bag, you'll end up getting a black ball only 25% of the time.  But that's because the odds on each are independent, plus the odds are I'll tell you it's black only 25% of the time (so I can be inaccurate 50% of the time but still only have 25% black balls).

 

Bottom line - there's a 50% chance anyone Rey views is scum.

 

I still don't get it, but then again I haven't taken probability or stat.

[Verbal32]

I'd like to hear more from the majority of people that aren't saying anything.  We have about 5-6 active posters, and everybody else is too quiet.

 

I'm on board with voting from the list of folks on Kivam's lynch attempt.  I obviously won't vote for myself, but we really need a lynch and the probability of hitting mafia is likely best if we pick from that list...of that much I'm agreeing with what Far is saying.

 

On the usefulness of Rey's role and the math behind it, let's drop it.  Most of us think the role is useless, and some think in certain situations it could be useful.  Right now is not one of those situations, so continuing to talk about it will get us nowhere.

 

Perhaps everybody could give their top lynch choice from that list and explain why?  I'm not sure who to pick, as I was gunning for Kivam, but am no longer doing that.  There's no way I'm voting No Lynch, so I'll just do some re-reading.  Toodles.

[Kivam]

I'd like to hear more from the majority of people that aren't saying anything.  We have about 5-6 active posters, and everybody else is too quiet.

 

I'm on board with voting from the list of folks on Kivam's lynch attempt.  I obviously won't vote for myself, but we really need a lynch and the probability of hitting mafia is likely best if we pick from that list...of that much I'm agreeing with what Far is saying.

 

On the usefulness of Rey's role and the math behind it, let's drop it.  Most of us think the role is useless, and some think in certain situations it could be useful.  Right now is not one of those situations, so continuing to talk about it will get us nowhere.

 

Perhaps everybody could give their top lynch choice from that list and explain why?  I'm not sure who to pick, as I was gunning for Kivam, but am no longer doing that.  There's no way I'm voting No Lynch, so I'll just do some re-reading.  Toodles.

 

Agreed.

 

From that list, my top choices are Lavinya, Nae and Dae.  Lavinya and Nae for the reasons already articulated.  Dae for the attempt to push my lynch, which still strikes me (given format and timing) as a way to save a teammate also on the block (at that point, either Nae or Lavinya).  Dae is also in the #4 spot, which is prime lynch fuel (starts the train looking like it'll succeed, which draws in bandwagoners, but not a bandwagon spot itself).  He's number 3 on my list, though, since the primary suspicion with him is he was protecting Lavinya or Nae.

[Naeann]

On Far's list of most suspicious people?  I'd have to go back and look.  I think it's dumb to ask everyone to pick from ONE person's suspicion list.. especially when that person has done plenty of suspicious stuff herself.  She tops mine.  Followed by Pandy and Rey for the suspicions thrown at me when they themselves popped out a role at the first HINT of anyone coming at them.  Like I said... pot.. kettle. 

[Kivam]

On Far's list of most suspicious people?  I'd have to go back and look.  I think it's dumb to ask everyone to pick from ONE person's suspicion list.. especially when that person has done plenty of suspicious stuff herself.  She tops mine.  Followed by Pandy and Rey for the suspicions thrown at me when they themselves popped out a role at the first HINT of anyone coming at them.  Like I said... pot.. kettle. 

 

Not on Far's list of suspicious people

 

On the list of 9 people on my Bandwagon before I revealed.  Not in order, they were:

 

Naeann

Verbal

Ed

Dragonsworn

Alys

Lavinya

Lily

Dae

1 more, I forget who and don't feel like looking it up (people, you need to see the correct order, anyway).  Maybe Talmanes?

[Talya]

I think it was Lia

[Far Dareis Mai]

On Far's list of most suspicious people?  I'd have to go back and look.  I think it's dumb to ask everyone to pick from ONE person's suspicion list.. especially when that person has done plenty of suspicious stuff herself.  She tops mine.  Followed by Pandy and Rey for the suspicions thrown at me when they themselves popped out a role at the first HINT of anyone coming at them.  Like I said... pot.. kettle. 

 

Keep digging that hole, m'dear. You are coming off as extremely hostile in this game, and your persistence in putting words into people's mouth's is going to get you into a whole heap of trouble Day 2. He meant the list of people who bandwagoned on him, not my list of suspects. Just as before, when I suggested that we vote to lynch someone from the list of people who VOTED for Kivam, NOT from my list of suspects.

 

I want to do a quick read on the posts of my #1 before I make this kind of commitment. ;)

[Naeann]

Just calls to mind how extremely helpful DPR is when he is mafia.  You are clearing your throat and making sure everyone knows you can't possibly talk about your idea anywhere but the game because you don't have a team to converse it over with and all the role fishing earlier in the day.. I believe it was you who stirred up the Pandy pot.  Start a lynch on me if you want dear.  Let's have another reveal at close to a lynch. :)

[Alys Kinch]

That's fine. I simply recall an event where you manage to finagle extra information from the mod...but I believe we were using our alts.

Not that I recall. It’s possible that I’m not remembering.

 

Saying he won't go up in flames means what he said about the arsonist is true.. isn't.  If one of the other killing ends of these twofers decided to be mischevious they could target Kivam.. thus making everyone believe he lied about what the arsonist could do as well as opening up the arsonist for nks as well.

I think I understand what you were saying… There are  several ways around this because we have to trust in what Kivam said and he is in no way proven. I’ve thought of several scenarios, so I don’t believe it, even if there is no arsonist kill tonight.

 

Alys - who do you think is a lying liar who lies?

I can’t say at this point because I still need mod reply. Giving any one name on the list could kill me so not taking that chance. If I had my choice… I know what my gut is telling me. I can say none of the definite pool are were in on the Kivam lynch.

 

[Far Dareis Mai]

Just calls to mind how extremely helpful DPR is when he is mafia.  You are clearing your throat and making sure everyone knows you can't possibly talk about your idea anywhere but the game because you don't have a team to converse it over with and all the role fishing earlier in the day.. I believe it was you who stirred up the Pandy pot.  Start a lynch on me if you want dear.  Let's have another reveal at close to a lynch. :)

 

Role fishing? Are we back to that again? LOL. I've not once been fishing for roles; I've been adamantly against anyone revealing their roles.

 

And I don't really think I'll need to lead a lynch on you. You are doing a swell job making yourself look all kinds of guilty. :)

 

Not that I recall. It’s possible that I’m not remembering.

It was in the game where you and I got into a huge fight near the beginning, and you were Moghedien I believe...and basically you got information from Barm or DSage (I want to say one of those two were running the game), and it was on a Messenger and shared it with the group. Again, it was years ago at the very least. I would not be surprised if you don't recall it.

 

Saying he won't go up in flames means what he said about the arsonist is true.. isn't.  If one of the other killing ends of these twofers decided to be mischevious they could target Kivam.. thus making everyone believe he lied about what the arsonist could do as well as opening up the arsonist for nks as well.

I think this whole train of thought is really moot now, because the Arsonist now knows who the Firefighter is. They certainly aren't going to chance targeting him either way.

 

 

 

 

[Lavinya]

9 Pages while I was sleeping...9 pages! Anyway...wow. First things first - [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]. Though wouldn't neutralising the firefighter also neutralise the arsonist? They can't kill until the fireman dies, yes? Oh right, firefighter turns into killer. Well, hence my unvote.

 

Now, I don't know. When I voted Kivam it was over the role reveals, but I haven't got much more than that to go on anybody. I'm wondering more and more what Pandy's role actually does. Inviting people to use their actions on him is just scummy, if you ask me. Obviously if it's super awesome for the town he wouldn't want to tip the mafia's hand, but I'm thinking perhaps anyone that targets him at night becomes recruited to a cult. Maybe as a reverse to him targeting anyone. Maybe it's given him the power to absorb roles? Who knows what was in the Mod's mind?

 

Nae seems scummy to me too. Or maybe I have bad memories of the last game she was an evil genius. I think scummiest of all however is Rey, right now. It is such an easy role for mafia to hide behind - he 'finds' someone as scum, turns out they're not, oops it's because of the 50% thing. Maybe it's too obvious to be such a tactic, but for lack of any real evidence against anyone else my vote is [glow=red,2,300]Rey[/glow].

[Kivam]

9 Pages while I was sleeping...9 pages! Anyway...wow. First things first - [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]. Though wouldn't neutralising the firefighter also neutralise the arsonist? They can't kill until the fireman dies, yes? Oh right, firefighter turns into killer. Well, hence my unvote.

 

Does anyone have any idea what the bolded means?  ???

 

 

[Lavinya]

I do I do! I was thinking out loud. I assumed, as you said, that once the firefighter dies, so do all the people primed by the arsonist. Having had no night, we can assume no one is primed, so no one dies in the backlash. However, as you said, if you are lynched you turn into a serial killer, yes? Or did I read you wrong? I'd rather not have a serial killer running around, for all we know that would be an additional serial killer. Did I make better sense that time?