The importance of Illian in AMoL

[cloglord]

Okay I posted this idea about a year ago, and with the exception of Maj, and the one post made by luckers, most everyone that had debated this topic has apparently disapeared from these forums.  So I thought I'd repost the original post, and see if anyone else had any thoughts on the matter.  The full thread can be found here: http://forums.dragonmount.com/index.php/topic,20870.48.html

 

It's a good read, but, its also 5 pages, so consider yourself forewarned.

 

Okay, I've made most of these arguments in other threads, but I thought that I'd consolidate them here, so that each facet of this argument could strengthen the other.  I feel that Illian will play a pivotal role in AMoL.  There are several reasons why I believe this, and I will detail each of them individually below.

 

First, Illian is where roughly half of Rand's forces are gathered.  While it certainly is possible that they could be moved where ever they may be needed by use of gateways, I don't think that time will be spent in AMoL to do so.  It seems likely to me that there will be a trolloc force that will attack out of the Shadow Coast, and the forces now stationed in Illian will be a part of the battle against them.

 

Second, Illian seems to be next on the list of conquests for the Seanchan.  If you assume that AMoL will see some sort of treaty negotiated between the Seanchan and Rand, it is likely that Illian would be the place for such a treaty to be arranged.  It seems more likely as such a place than Arad Doman, as Rand has held Illian longer, and it is physically closer to Ebou Dar, the home of the Imperial Seanchan court in exile.

 

Third, It is the most likely place for Mat/Aludra's Dragons to be cast.  It is one of the world's great seaports, and has industries, (shipbuilding and tanning,) that have common infastructure with that of the production of gunpowder.  It also has the benefit of being a short trip down river from Mat and Aludra's curent location.

 

Fourth, it is the most likely place for Setalle Anan to go.  Her entire family is there currently.  If there is resolution of her plotline, (a possible role in a truce with Tuon, and a possible healing of her burnout,) then the most likely place for this to occur is in Illian.  This is synergetic with the point about the Seanchan Truce.  If Rand shows up in Illian, then both Nynaeve and Damer Flin would be as well.  Since both of these two character figured out to heal stilling independently of each other, they would be the most qualified to make an attempt at healing Anan.

 

Fifth, It is the single most likely place for the Horn of Valere to end up.  That is of course assuming, (as I do,) that Verin has gone to remove the Horn from its current location.  Moraine, in the moments after first seeing it in TEotW, states clearly that it must go to Illian.  She has had no time to plan a reason why, nor does she say that it "Should" go to Illian.  She flat out says that it must go to Illian, so we know that she at least believes that it must arrive there at some point.  LET ME BE CLEAR, I already know that it isn't mentioned ANYWHERE in the prophecies that the Horn must go to Illian.  I base my assumption here, on Moraine's gut response from the end of TEotW.

 

Sixth, Mattin Stepaneos is alive.  I assume that there is a reason that RJ has not killed him, and I think that the most likely place for him to fulfill his role is in Illian.

 

 

Fire Away.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Nah.  Good solid logic on each of your points.  Except maybe - and I do just mean maybe - the attack out of the Shadow Coast.

 

However, it could happen that way.  If this is the kind of really big dustup I expect there will be major battles lots of places other than just Shayol Ghul.  Shadowspawn may not be able to Travel, but they can use the Ways, and at least some of those gates are still unguarded and untrapped.

 

They may also be able to use the Portal Stones.  We can't be sure either way about those.  Depending on when they set out and how far they have to travel to reach an exit they could emerge anywhere and anywhen.  Assuming they can't just be transported via Portal Stone like Rand did when going from Tear to Rhuidean.

 

Illian might end up being as pivotal as you expect.  It'll be interesting to see.

[eol]

*Heeds the call of Org leader*

 

The only thing I'm going to argue with (at the moment) is the trolloc attack from the shadow coast. I would expect there to be one but im unsure as to its size. either way it will run into a whole load of Seanchan and Rand's forces. If it is a strong enough attack in that it occupies both forces then an interesting three-way happens, depending on whether or not Rand and Tuon have kissed and made up yet. If the treaty is done at this stage then the combined forces, most likely under Mat's control, or maybe Karede, will likely rout them. but i think this is unprobable, mainly due to the supposed attack on the white tower by the Seanchan.

 

It all depends on timing. If Tuon gets to Ebou Dar and orders such an attack before a treaty is negotiated then her forces will be gone, leaving just Rand's army to take care of the trollocs. If the trollocs attack before the treaty and the WT attack then you have 3 opposing sides drawn into the battle which might lead to a trolloc victory, depending on the size of the trolloc army. if, in the best case scenario, treaty is signed before the trolloc attack then it becomes likely they will be routed, unless it is a huge force. This still leaves the issue of the WT attack unresolved and Egwene in the middle of something big. Its all up in the air really.

 

The horn also must be taken into account. If, as seems likely, Mat and the Horn arrive in Illian before the Trolloc attack, then the Trolloc army will be defeated anyway. I think that Mat will arrive with the Horn at the last minute and save Rand and Tuon's forces, thus playing its first part in the victory at TG. Thats how I see it anyway.

[cloglord]

*tosses Eol 10 gold coins for being the first to heed the call.*

 

The only thing I'm going to argue with (at the moment) is the trolloc attack from the shadow coast. I would expect there to be one but im unsure as to its size. either way it will run into a whole load of Seanchan and Rand's forces. If it is a strong enough attack in that it occupies both forces then an interesting three-way happens, depending on whether or not Rand and Tuon have kissed and made up yet. If the treaty is done at this stage then the combined forces, most likely under Mat's control, or maybe Karede, will likely rout them. but i think this is unprobable, mainly due to the supposed attack on the white tower by the Seanchan.

 

Now we know that there are two unguarded waygates in the shadow coast, stedding Mardoon and Shadoon refused Loial and Kardin's warnings.  WE also know that the Shadow coast is hundreds of miles square and is not often visited by human civilization.  This is evidenced by the dual facts of Ogier habitation, and by (I believe) Galads POV in the KoD's prolouge.  There is plenty of area for a massive trolloc army to hide out and strike at will.  According to Moridin statements in the beggining chapters of Kod's,  it took ten days to get 100 fades and 100,000 trollocs through the ways to attack Rand in Tear.  That's ten fades and 10,000 trollocs a day capacity.  It has been 37 days, according to the Cooper timeline since Karldin and Loial returned from their excursion to guard the gates.  Meaning that it is possible that since Loial and Karldin left, the DO could have moved 370 fades and 370,000 trollocs through the ways to the shadow coast.  Of course those figures are only for one of the two waygates, so concievably as of the end of KoD's there could already be 740,000 Trollocs and 740 fades hanging out in the shadow coast unbeknownst to anyone.  It might even explain why there have been more than one mention of crows flying north enmasse in KoD's.  Maybe those flocks were messages being sent back north that the army was in place and getting ready to strike.  I think that nearly 3/4ths of a milllion trollocs coming screaming into the center of seanchan held territory would be more than enough to teach the Seanchan a lesson about the lethality of shadowspawn. 

 

As for it being a three way fight I don't see how it would be, the shadow coast is surrounded entirely by seanchan held territory, an attack out of the shadow coast would be solely a seanchan problem at first.

[Dragon21]

Well, Clog.

I won't really disgree strongly with any of those theories, though I will say some are quite a bit of speculation. I could see a lot of it playing out as you have mentioned, but I am sure there are other speculative theories that could make near, or as much sense.

 

Your strongest case to me is this one:

Fifth, It is the single most likely place for the Horn of Valere to end up.  That is of course assuming, (as I do,) that Verin has gone to remove the Horn from its current location.  Moraine, in the moments after first seeing it in TEotW, states clearly that it must go to Illian.  She has had no time to plan a reason why, nor does she say that it "Should" go to Illian.  She flat out says that it must go to Illian, so we know that she at least believes that it must arrive there at some point.  LET ME BE CLEAR, I already know that it isn't mentioned ANYWHERE in the prophecies that the Horn must go to Illian.  I base my assumption here, on Moraine's gut response from the end of TEotW.

 

I agree with this near 100%. The Horn will be in Illian again, one way or another. Verin has it, and Matt will end up there too. And probably Moiraine since she may be with Matt and Thom.

[cloglord]

I find that your agreement with the last point first to be interesting, as in past discussions of this, that point seems to be the most contentious.  Would you care to wager an alternative speculation that wraps up the Anan, Stepaneos, Aludra, and Tuon questions as well?

[Majsju]

First, Illian is where roughly half of Rand's forces are gathered.  While it certainly is possible that they could be moved where ever they may be needed by use of gateways, I don't think that time will be spent in AMoL to do so.  It seems likely to me that there will be a trolloc force that will attack out of the Shadow Coast, and the forces now stationed in Illian will be a part of the battle against them.

 

While there is quite a possibility the Shadow will launch an attack, there is a problem of them getting enough trollocs there to be a force strong enough to pose a serious threat. Ships are basically impossible, it would take a small fleet to transport enough trollocs, and even if the shadow does possess ships (something we have never heard of), these waters are patrolled by Seanchan. The only other possibility is a Waygate, which means the Shadow must locate a suitable one, ie one enough out of sight to allow 100000 or more trollocs to come out without being discovered.

 

But even if they manage to accomplish this, in order for the Shadow to reach Illian they would have to cross lands occupied by the Seanchan. There would be way more damane in Altara than the number of channelers who wiped out the 100000 trollocs in KOD, damane who basically only know one thing with the power: war. So I doubt a single trolloc would actually make it into Illian.

 

Second, Illian seems to be next on the list of conquests for the Seanchan.  If you assume that AMoL will see some sort of treaty negotiated between the Seanchan and Rand, it is likely that Illian would be the place for such a treaty to be arranged.  It seems more likely as such a place than Arad Doman, as Rand has held Illian longer, and it is physically closer to Ebou Dar, the home of the Imperial Seanchan court in exile.

 

Any attempts at conquering Illian is out of the question. Not only because there is not enough time for that, with only one book left, but also because the Seanchan are quite occupied elsewhere. Preparations for the assault on Tar Valon has started, Ituralde is causing a great deal of trouble, and now there is this huge army gathering in Arad Doman, and the Seanchan must have noticed this, as well as figured out exactly where that army is headed.

 

As for where a meeting between Rand and Tuon would take place, most likely not Illian. As you said, a great deal of Rands forces are gathered there, and it would be exceptionally stupid of Tuon to agree on a meeting in such a place. I would expect a more somewhat neutral ground. And distance is not that much of a big deal, Rand can travel, and I am making the assumption that Tuon would not mind using raken or to'raken for such an important meeting.

 

Third, It is the most likely place for Mat/Aludra's Dragons to be cast.  It is one of the world's great seaports, and has industries, (shipbuilding and tanning,) that have common infastructure with that of the production of gunpowder.  It also has the benefit of being a short trip down river from Mat and Aludra's curent location.

 

Possibly. I would not rule out Cairhien though, where rand has his academy. Mat, who would be the one to send Aludra away, does not seem overly concerned with time. But even if Aludra goes to Illian, that is not really a part of the main story. She goes away, gets to work, and reports back once she has enough dragons to make a difference. It is possible this will not happen before TG, remember that Egwenes dream told her men were going to die because of this, not shadowspawn. RJ has set up quite a few things to be important for the time after TG, rather than for the storyarch we get to follow.

 

Fourth, it is the most likely place for Setalle Anan to go.  Her entire family is there currently.  If there is resolution of her plotline, (a possible role in a truce with Tuon, and a possible healing of her burnout,) then the most likely place for this to occur is in Illian.  This is synergetic with the point about the Seanchan Truce.  If Rand shows up in Illian, then both Nynaeve and Damer Flin would be as well.  Since both of these two character figured out to heal stilling independently of each other, they would be the most qualified to make an attempt at healing Anan.

 

If (and that is a major if) rand does show up in Illian, he would either stay in the palace, or possibly be with his army. Even with his ta'veren, what are the odds of Setalle just stumbling into one of those places?

If she is to be Healed, she might want to stay with Mat, who soon will have a Moiraine to escort for healing as well.

 

Fifth, It is the single most likely place for the Horn of Valere to end up.  That is of course assuming, (as I do,) that Verin has gone to remove the Horn from its current location.  Moraine, in the moments after first seeing it in TEotW, states clearly that it must go to Illian.  She has had no time to plan a reason why, nor does she say that it "Should" go to Illian.  She flat out says that it must go to Illian, so we know that she at least believes that it must arrive there at some point.  LET ME BE CLEAR, I already know that it isn't mentioned ANYWHERE in the prophecies that the Horn must go to Illian.  I base my assumption here, on Moraine's gut response from the end of TEotW.

 

We have been over this before, we are given the reason why Moiraine says the Horn must go to Illian; have Rand arrive with the Horn, and he would have all the military power of Illian behind him from the start.

Verin, who seems to have read every single book ever written, does not even consider bringing the Horn to Illian, and has no problem with Siuans decision to just put it away in the White Tower.

 

Since the prophecies does not say anything about a connection between the Horn and Illian, just where would Moiraine pick up such exact knowledge, a dream?

[cloglord]

While there is quite a possibility the Shadow will launch an attack, there is a problem of them getting enough trollocs there to be a force strong enough to pose a serious threat. Ships are basically impossible, it would take a small fleet to transport enough trollocs, and even if the shadow does possess ships (something we have never heard of), these waters are patrolled by Seanchan. The only other possibility is a Waygate, which means the Shadow must locate a suitable one, ie one enough out of sight to allow 100000 or more trollocs to come out without being discovered.

 

These are excellent points, unfortunately I adressed them all two posts down.  I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you just missed it, and quote it again for you.  ;)

Now we know that there are two unguarded waygates in the shadow coast, stedding Mardoon and Shadoon refused Loial and Kardin's warnings.  WE also know that the Shadow coast is hundreds of miles square and is not often visited by human civilization.  This is evidenced by the dual facts of Ogier habitation, and by (I believe) Galads POV in the KoD's prolouge.  There is plenty of area for a massive trolloc army to hide out and strike at will.  According to Moridin statements in the beggining chapters of Kod's,  it took ten days to get 100 fades and 100,000 trollocs through the ways to attack Rand in Tear.  That's ten fades and 10,000 trollocs a day capacity.  It has been 37 days, according to the Cooper timeline since Karldin and Loial returned from their excursion to guard the gates.  Meaning that it is possible that since Loial and Karldin left, the DO could have moved 370 fades and 370,000 trollocs through the ways to the shadow coast.  Of course those figures are only for one of the two waygates, so concievably as of the end of KoD's there could already be 740,000 Trollocs and 740 fades hanging out in the shadow coast unbeknownst to anyone.  It might even explain why there have been more than one mention of crows flying north enmasse in KoD's.  Maybe those flocks were messages being sent back north that the army was in place and getting ready to strike.  I think that nearly 3/4ths of a milllion trollocs coming screaming into the center of seanchan held territory would be more than enough to teach the Seanchan a lesson about the lethality of shadowspawn.

 

But even if they manage to accomplish this, in order for the Shadow to reach Illian they would have to cross lands occupied by the Seanchan. There would be way more damane in Altara than the number of channelers who wiped out the 100000 trollocs in KOD, damane who basically only know one thing with the power: war. So I doubt a single trolloc would actually make it into Illian.

 

This question has been posed in other places, and I don't have a good answer for it other than to say that if TG comes down to straight channeler vs. trolloc hordes in the fashion of the attack in tear, TG will lack any sense of danger and end up being a non-event.  Since I have more faith in RJ's planning and Brandon Sanderson's execution, then I will go with the assumption that TG will be a real threat to the inhabitants of Randland.

 

Any attempts at conquering Illian is out of the question. Not only because there is not enough time for that, with only one book left, but also because the Seanchan are quite occupied elsewhere. Preparations for the assault on Tar Valon has started, Ituralde is causing a great deal of trouble, and now there is this huge army gathering in Arad Doman, and the Seanchan must have noticed this, as well as figured out exactly where that army is headed.

 

You are right Maj, it is highly unlikely that the Seanchan will start any trouble in Illian if for no other reason than they have probably run out of time to and still deal with all of the other issues.  But it is equally true that there are Seanchan troops staioned within the borders of Illian, and were a massive TG sized horde of trollocs come pouring out of the shadow coast, the Seanchan will have to retreat somewhere.  I can very well see the Seanchan lands being split by invasion from the shadow coast and the Taraboners retreating north to the almoth plain, and the amadician and altarans retreating East towards Illian.  If Tuon happens to be in Ebou Dar when this happens, (which is her current location at last account,)  Then we might well see a scenario where Tuon will have to go begging Rand for help on his own terms and ground.

 

Possibly. I would not rule out Cairhien though, where rand has his academy. Mat, who would be the one to send Aludra away, does not seem overly concerned with time. But even if Aludra goes to Illian, that is not really a part of the main story. She goes away, gets to work, and reports back once she has enough dragons to make a difference. It is possible this will not happen before TG, remember that Egwenes dream told her men were going to die because of this, not shadowspawn. RJ has set up quite a few things to be important for the time after TG, rather than for the storyarch we get to follow.

 

I don't think that Carhien would have the materials nessecary and on hand that Illian would, and Carhien would be a good deal further for Aldura to travel.  Since she already has plans for her dragons, and certainly knows how to make the explosives, I don't see why a place of study would help her much.  She seems to have a pretty clear idea of the prototype in her head.  You are of course correct that RJ might not have had it in the cards to get these dragons off the ground in time for TG, but if it is going to happen within the scope of the books, it will have to happen quickly, and Illian has the best infrastructure to accomplish this.

 

If (and that is a major if) rand does show up in Illian, he would either stay in the palace, or possibly be with his army. Even with his ta'veren, what are the odds of Setalle just stumbling into one of those places?

If she is to be Healed, she might want to stay with Mat, who soon will have a Moiraine to escort for healing as well.

  She is not likely to stumble upon Rand in a vaccuum.  She is a close aquaintance of both Tuon and Mat, and could enter Rand's circles through either of them.  She could also be traveling with Julian who is likely traveling with Doman and Amathera.  Should Rand seek out the man he hired to protect Elayne, the man who saved him from trollocs in Shadar Logoth, or the former panarch of a country occupied by the Seanchan, he could easily encounter Anan in the course of those interactions.

 

We have been over this before, we are given the reason why Moiraine says the Horn must go to Illian; have Rand arrive with the Horn, and he would have all the military power of Illian behind him from the start.

 

We are given a reason why she says this in the beggining of TGH.  No one has ever explained to me why she says that the horn must go to Illian seconds after she first lays eyes on it and hours after she learns that Rand is surely the DR at the end of TEotW.  That is unless you think that Moraine is such an accomplished schemer that she thought the whole "send Rand to Illian to get an army scheme" while lying injured on the ground in the two seconds between when the horn box gets opened and when she utters her proclamation?

 

Since the prophecies does not say anything about a connection between the Horn and Illian, just where would Moiraine pick up such exact knowledge, a dream?

Just because the bits of prophecy we have don't directly link the horn with Illian, does not mean that they don't exist.  How long did we go in the series until we got the bit of porophecy about the wolfking and his hammer?  We do know that there is a "prophecy of the horn,"  however as Moraine references it in Fal Dara at the end of TEotW.

[Bob T Dwarf]

The biggest part of your premise for me is that the number of exit gates isn't the limiting factor on number of Trollocs moved per unit time, it's the number of entry gates.

 

AFAIK, there is only one Waygate in the Blight.

[cloglord]

Stedding Chandar fell to the Blight 968 years ago

Stedding Sherandu fell to the Blight 1843 years ago.

 

 

Presumably there was at least one waygate in Malkier as well.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Then ya gotta round'em up, and move'em out however far it is from Trollocland to those entry gates before you can even send'em down the pipe.

 

Presumably, the 100,000 who attacked Rand had that number of entrances available as well.  Now assuming ( BIG assumption ) that there are no enroute traffic jams due to really big potholes or unruly squabbles ( He's TOUCHING me! ) or losses to Machin Shin along either route.  You might - repeat might - get 20,000 per day max out the other end.  As we've seen repeatedly, the Dark is not immune to Murphy.

 

Then, of course they first have to conquer those two Stedding.

 

But, yes, given enough time, and enough troops, they could assemble a considerable invasion force there and cause the kind of havoc you postulate.

[Paviel]

One thing that kind of puzzles me about Illian is that wherever the line may be drawn separating "the north and the east" from "the west and the south", Illian will probably be with the latter.

[General Cauthon]

We are given a reason why she says this in the beggining of TGH.  No one has ever explained to me why she says that the horn must go to Illian seconds after she first lays eyes on it and hours after she learns that Rand is surely the DR at the end of TEotW.  That is unless you think that Moraine is such an accomplished schemer that she thought the whole "send Rand to Illian to get an army scheme" while lying injured on the ground in the two seconds between when the horn box gets opened and when she utters her proclamation?

 

Not that I disagree, but Moiraine have had 20 years to plan how she would handle the Dragon Reborn, and prepare him for TG. Since she knew that the Horn would be found before TG as well, I don't think it's impossible that she had planned to let the Dragon bring it to Illian. As she says, it would bind Illian to him. Moiraine knew the Dragon must unite the nations behind him, what better way to begin, than by having Illian handed to him. I don't think she planned that Rand would conquer Tear alone.

 

I think Moiraine just revealed her plan for the Horn. The Horn might end up in Illian, but I think that depends on whether Mat goes to Illian, or not. Verin will probably try to bring the Horn to Mat ASAP, and it'll stay with Mat through TG, in my opinion

[Luckers]

I won't comment on the issues of the Horn. You know i disagree there, and we can argue for days about that, but at the heart Maj has already said the hear of it--so lets leave it and see what our wonderful newcomers think. On other matters...

 

First, Illian is where roughly half of Rand's forces are gathered.  While it certainly is possible that they could be moved where ever they may be needed by use of gateways, I don't think that time will be spent in AMoL to do so.  It seems likely to me that there will be a trolloc force that will attack out of the Shadow Coast, and the forces now stationed in Illian will be a part of the battle against them.

 

I agree--furthermore I agree with your following post which summed up force amounts that could be transferred through the Ways. Whatever is constraining Machin Shin, or whatever has been altered in its nature, if the force that assaulted Tear could gather in such time (though could you cite for me what made it ten days--i thought it less, and don't have the books on me) then the same can be done through the Shadow Coast. I would add that in thematic terms there needs to be something to bring home the reality of the Shadow for the Seanchan--add that to constant deluge of Seanchan comments about looking forward to 'these shadowspawn of yours' and i think its just been built up too much for it to not happen.

 

Though, that being said, like Maj i don't see that assualt reaching Illian. The Seanchan may not be able to shrug it off, as Maj suggests, but the Seanchan with their damane--not to mention their grolm and the like--are more than capable to throwing up a bog deep enough to block a shadowspawn army of any strength--remember the Seanchan 'monsters' were what allowed Shadowpawn to be wiped out in Seanchan... and I especially don't see it reaching Illian if the forces Rand is gathering in Illian join in, which may well occur following an alliance between Rand and Tuon.

 

Quote

Possibly. I would not rule out Cairhien though, where rand has his academy. Mat, who would be the one to send Aludra away, does not seem overly concerned with time. But even if Aludra goes to Illian, that is not really a part of the main story. She goes away, gets to work, and reports back once she has enough dragons to make a difference. It is possible this will not happen before TG, remember that Egwenes dream told her men were going to die because of this, not shadowspawn. RJ has set up quite a few things to be important for the time after TG, rather than for the storyarch we get to follow.

 

I don't think that Carhien would have the materials nessecary and on hand that Illian would, and Carhien would be a good deal further for Aldura to travel.  Since she already has plans for her dragons, and certainly knows how to make the explosives, I don't see why a place of study would help her much.  She seems to have a pretty clear idea of the prototype in her head.  You are of course correct that RJ might not have had it in the cards to get these dragons off the ground in time for TG, but if it is going to happen within the scope of the books, it will have to happen quickly, and Illian has the best infrastructure to accomplish this.

 

Honestly, I can't believe you both missed Caemlyn. Elayne directly states the establishment of thirteen new manufacturies in Winter's Heart as a result of the influx of highly talented refugees into Andor. Add to that the fact that the Mountains of the Mist represent the strongest mining community (and thus raw material for high infrastructure) in the world--with the possible exception of the Ghealdanin alum mines--and the fact that Mat is headed into Andor directly, and his connections to Elayne as a place to diverge himself of his entourage before entering the Tower of Ghenjei and it seems certain. Infrastructure, raw materials, and the presence of those to use them.

 

Presumably, the 100,000 who attacked Rand had that number of entrances available as well.  Now assuming ( BIG assumption ) that there are no enroute traffic jams due to really big potholes or unruly squabbles ( He's TOUCHING me! ) or losses to Machin Shin along either route.  You might - repeat might - get 20,000 per day max out the other end.  As we've seen repeatedly, the Dark is not immune to Murphy.

 

Well, one, they probably didn't have easy access. Whoever commanded them was acting against Shadow Mandate, and as such would have had to move quickly, and quietly. So it seems possible--probable really--that only one entrance was used. I say probable because Moridin implies that it is a single event.

 

And as for Machin Shin--it did not intervene. Had it done so, such a force gathering even in ten days is impossible. So, from that we can deduce that Machin Shin has changed--a fact sustained by the sequence of progressive changes we witnessed following its interaction with Taim (waiting at Waygates, trying to force its way out, etc). That occured in less than six months, and we havn't seen Machin Shin for more than a year since. that and the facts of the Trolloc passage state the change as fact.

 

Then, of course they first have to conquer those two Stedding.

 

Thats not nessasarily a problem--not with the numbers we are talking about. We know that Trollocs can be forced to enter steddings. They hate it, but they can be forced to it. Much the same as Shadar Logoth really.

 

Not that I disagree, but Moiraine have had 20 years to plan how she would handle the Dragon Reborn, and prepare him for TG. Since she knew that the Horn would be found before TG as well, I don't think it's impossible that she had planned to let the Dragon bring it to Illian. As she says, it would bind Illian to him. Moiraine knew the Dragon must unite the nations behind him, what better way to begin, than by having Illian handed to him. I don't think she planned that Rand would conquer Tear alone.

 

Unlikely, given her questioning of Vandene about whether any prophecies linked the Dragon with the Horn. The mode of that makes it clear she never directly concidered the issue beforehand.

 

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

And as for Machin Shin--it did not intervene. Had it done so, such a force gathering even in ten days is impossible. So, from that we can deduce that Machin Shin has changed--a fact sustained by the sequence of progressive changes we witnessed following its interaction with Taim (waiting at Waygates, trying to force its way out, etc). That occured in less than six months, and we havn't seen Machin Shin for more than a year since. that and the facts of the Trolloc passage state the change as fact.

 

We can infer that MS didn't intervene, but we can't be certain.  Larde Trolloc armies have successfully passed through the Ways before.  (Emond'sField)

 

I know it was probably just a typo, but it's Fain not Taim.

[Majsju]

Honestly, I can't believe you both missed Caemlyn. Elayne directly states the establishment of thirteen new manufacturies in Winter's Heart as a result of the influx of highly talented refugees into Andor. Add to that the fact that the Mountains of the Mist represent the strongest mining community (and thus raw material for high infrastructure) in the world--with the possible exception of the Ghealdanin alum mines--and the fact that Mat is headed into Andor directly, and his connections to Elayne as a place to diverge himself of his entourage before entering the Tower of Ghenjei and it seems certain. Infrastructure, raw materials, and the presence of those to use them.

 

I took the liberty of excluding Caemlyn based on the assumption that Mat would send Aludra on her merry way while he continued to TOG. Last thing Mat heard (that we know of) is that Elayne went to caemlyn in order to secure the throne. That does leave the possibility that she might have failed, and thus Caemlyn would be controlled by someone not in any way connected to Rand. While last time Mat checked, Cairhien was safely in Rands control, and also a place Rand visits frequently.

[cloglord]

Bob, the conquering of those two stedding is I think going to provide the single biggest impetus towards the involvement of the ogier in TG, that and what is sure to be a moving speech by Loial.

 

Paviel,  I have had the same thought, and have yet to come up with a completely satisfactory answer.  One possibility might be that  the Eelfinn did not mean that the southwest and the nort east had to be equal, only that they had to be united.  Altara, amadicia, and Tarabon do make up the entire south west corner of the continent, just not half of the southwest.

 

Honestly, I can't believe you both missed Caemlyn. ...

 

I like Maj took Camelyn out as Mat has been out of the loop for so long as to not really know anything about the situation in Andor.  Upon arriving at the Manetherendrelle however, he will again have access to news.  The most complete would come from river traffic up from Illian, but some news would come from Andor by way of Murandy.  That info would not probably be good news, and would tell of a borderlander army, and the potential of a civil war.  It is also much further away both geographically and in term of travel time for any group Mat could/would sent.  I'll refrain from throwing in the bit about the horn here as well in the spirit of keeping this thing from bogging down.

 

Though, that being said, like Maj i don't see that assualt reaching Illian. The Seanchan may not be able to shrug it off, as Maj suggests, but the Seanchan with their damane--not to mention their grolm and the like--are more than capable to throwing up a bog deep enough to block a shadowspawn army of any strength--remember the Seanchan 'monsters' were what allowed Shadowpawn to be wiped out in Seanchan... and I especially don't see it reaching Illian if the forces Rand is gathering in Illian join in, which may well occur following an alliance between Rand and Tuon.

 

I don't nessecarily see a trolloc assualt on Illian either, what I meant is that a trolloc assualt from the shadow coast in sufficient numbers would put signifigant pressure on the seanchan and might even drive them into the long awaited treaty.  If it is the seanchan who come begging, it suddenly becomes more likely for the negotiations to take place in Illian.

 

Also I don't remember why I thought it was ten days, if I remember where I got that I'll post it up here.  EditFor some reason I was thinking that Moridin had said ten days during the chapter in the gardens, but I looked and it waswn't there.  According to the Steven Cooper timeline though it was 6 days from when Moridin reports the orders, and the attack in Tear.  So if you take out the time it took the trolloc horde to get from the waygate to the compound in Tear.....

 

I forgot to mention one other important point for Illian over Andor.  While Illian has the mining capacity for good iron and steel, Illian's industries seem uniquely suited to the mass production of gunpowder.  Charcoal and sulfur could be made in vast quantities in the manufacture of pitch and tar for ship building.  Potasium nitrate was also a chemical used in some types of early tanning processes.

[Bob T Dwarf]

If an attack is made out of the Shadow Coast, and it involves conquering those stedding, I agree, the Ogier would be highly motivated to grow long handles on their axes.

[Luckers]

We can infer that MS didn't intervene, but we can't be certain.  Larde Trolloc armies have successfully passed through the Ways before.  (Emond'sField)

 

I know it was probably just a typo, but it's Fain not Taim.

 

You know, thats not the first time I've made that typo either, heh. Mazrim Fain--the badest of the bad. It'll happen. :)

 

But as for Emmonds Field--i actually personally count that a point towards the idea that MS didn't interfere. Isam was only able to gather a couple of thousand over weeks directly because MS stopped faster use of the Ways. If the ten days is the amount of time it took the Trollocs to gather at Tear, then nearly five times the amount of shadowspawn it took Isam weeks to gather were moving through the Ways each day.

 

I took the liberty of excluding Caemlyn based on the assumption that Mat would send Aludra on her merry way while he continued to TOG. Last thing Mat heard (that we know of) is that Elayne went to caemlyn in order to secure the throne. That does leave the possibility that she might have failed, and thus Caemlyn would be controlled by someone not in any way connected to Rand. While last time Mat checked, Cairhien was safely in Rands control, and also a place Rand visits frequently.

 

Sorry, my comment came out somewhat flippant. That being said i do think that is a pretty extreme liberty. Firstly, even assuming rumours of the realities in Caemlyn had not reached Mat in the weeks since Elayne travelled there, Mat would not send Aludra alone--the Band would be sent with her. Any uncertainties become irrelevant at the point with an army of 'dragonsworn' around her, especially given they number Aes Sedai. Between fear of Rand, fear of the Tower, and fear of the actual army Mat would know that no claiment would actually attack the Band--fear of the army prolonging things enough for knowledge of their connections to Rand and the Tower to become apparent.

 

But secondly, quite frankly i doubt it would even occur to him--he is heading towards Andor with his own mission in mind, and would stay with the army for some time. By the time he would leave (likely near the Four Kings) he would surely have heard the realities of Caemlyn.

 

Caemlyn has the manufactries, the resources, and a like-minded leader. Cairhein has naught of that, and Illian is so far removed that it becomes pointless--but on that, could you (cloglord) remind me where it suggests Illian has those sort of facilities?

 

Bob, the conquering of those two stedding is I think going to provide the single biggest impetus towards the involvement of the ogier in TG, that and what is sure to be a moving speech by Loial.

 

Indeed, especially when you concider that Elder Haman--a respected member of the stedding hosting the Great Stump--will be travelling to both very shortly and thus be in a key position to witness the carnage and bring news of it to the Stump....

 

I like Maj took Camelyn out as Mat has been out of the loop for so long as to not really know anything about the situation in Andor.  Upon arriving at the Manetherendrelle however, he will again have access to news.  The most complete would come from river traffic up from Illian, but some news would come from Andor by way of Murandy.  That info would not probably be good news, and would tell of a borderlander army, and the potential of a civil war.  It is also much further away both geographically and in term of travel time for any group Mat could/would sent.  I'll refrain from throwing in the bit about the horn here as well in the spirit of keeping this thing from bogging down.

 

Mat travelled right past the Seanchan stanglehold on the Malvein Gap without it concerning him--oh he planned for it, but it didn't stop him from moving. I don't see why news of borderlanders would stop him for heading for Caemlyn in any case--and you neglect the fact that news of Elayne securing the throne would spread fast--and a major route of that would be along the same path he is travelling.

 

I don't nessecarily see a trolloc assualt on Illian either, what I meant is that a trolloc assualt from the shadow coast in sufficient numbers would put signifigant pressure on the seanchan and might even drive them into the long awaited treaty.  If it is the seanchan who come begging, it suddenly becomes more likely for the negotiations to take place in Illian.

 

I don't see the Seanchan growing desperate about anything, and Tuon herself strikes me as the type that even if she was the last person standing she wouldn't lose her head and go crawling. there will be no begging--for all that i agree that a Shadowspawn assault will play its part, i think the best that we can hope for is that that will balance Tuon's belief that the Dragon must kneel to the Crystal Throne.

 

Even in dire straights, Tuon would not go to Illian, and i very much doubt that Rand would push it--especially in dire straights of a shadowspawn assualt on the south.

[Majsju]

Maybe I was not clear, I certainly did not want to suggest that Mat would hesitate to chose Caemlyn because of concerns for Aludras (and those going with her) safety. But his ability to influence any ruler in Caemlyn not being Elayne would be quite uncertain, at best. Especially since he would not be going himself. While with Cairhien, Mat is well known in his own right, not only as Rands friend.

 

That said, there is of course the small detail of Mat being ta'veren, and thus attracting the things he needs. Which could include the proper news about Elayne having the throne.

[Luckers]

Maybe I was not clear, I certainly did not want to suggest that Mat would hesitate to chose Caemlyn because of concerns for Aludras (and those going with her) safety. But his ability to influence any ruler in Caemlyn not being Elayne would be quite uncertain, at best. Especially since he would not be going himself. While with Cairhien, Mat is well known in his own right, not only as Rands friend.

 

I don't see why thats so... his army would have to pass through Andor anyway, what need have he to influence the ruler of Andor?

 

Aside from which its more than improbable that he wouldn't encounter news of Elayne's assention to the Lion Throne--at the very least he would know that she held Caemlyn.

 

That said, there is of course the small detail of Mat being ta'veren, and thus attracting the things he needs. Which could include the proper news about Elayne having the throne.

 

What need to be ta'veren is there? Elayne has held Caemlyn for more than a month, and by the time he reached Andor she would have held the Rose Crown for some time too--its well stated how fast such information travels.

 

Caemlyn has the facilities, the resources and a like-minded ruler, and is the land he is directly heading too--ive yet to see anything about Cairhein or Illian to suggest it as an alternative... indeed, near as i can tell you've both only offered the name of the city and that Rand's influence means mat would be welcomed--all hold true for Caemlyn, and more.

 

No, Caemlyn is the strongest city in play here by far.

[cloglord]

Mat would not send Aludra alone--the Band would be sent with her. Any uncertainties become irrelevant at the point with an army of 'dragonsworn' around her, especially given they number Aes Sedai.

 

You're absolutely right, Mat would send at least the part of the band that is with him away, when he send everyone else away.  If a large portion of the Band goes to Illian, then it makes sense that Mat would end up there after the tower of Ghenji, but I pormised we wouldn't talk about that ;)...

 

But secondly, quite frankly i doubt it would even occur to him--he is heading towards Andor with his own mission in mind, and would stay with the army for some time. By the time he would leave (likely near the Four Kings) he would surely have heard the realities of Caemlyn.

 

 

Why would he head to Andor?  He's much closer to Murandy, and the Manatherendrelle.  He's also traveling in the company of the man that was there during his first trip past the tower of Ghenji and his first trip along the Manatherendrelle.  It is simply the fastest way for Mat to get to the tower, and the easist place to dispers his following.  Unless you think Mat's going to take the whole army to the tower with him?

 

Caemlyn has the manufactries, the resources, and a like-minded leader. Cairhein has naught of that, and Illian is so far removed that it becomes pointless--but on that, could you (cloglord) remind me where it suggests Illian has those sort of facilities?

 

Uhm, Illian is the MOST accessible of the three.  Remember that major river I mentioned above?  Illian has the second largest shipyard in the entirety of randland as well as the largest tanning operation in the world.  If there is a place to mass manufacture gunpower, Illian is it.

 

Mat travelled right past the Seanchan stanglehold on the Malvein Gap without it concerning him--oh he planned for it, but it didn't stop him from moving. I don't see why news of borderlanders would stop him for heading for Caemlyn in any case--and you neglect the fact that news of Elayne securing the throne would spread fast--and a major route of that would be along the same path he is travelling.

 

Mat maneuvered his army through the gap out of nessecity, he hated every minute of it.  If you recall, Mat actively tries to avoid large armies that might try to kill him.  Don't forget, Andoran forces have already threatened war with the band if it moves into Andoran territory once.

 

 

I don't see the Seanchan growing desperate about anything, and Tuon herself strikes me as the type that even if she was the last person standing she wouldn't lose her head and go crawling. there will be no begging--for all that i agree that a Shadowspawn assault will play its part, i think the best that we can hope for is that that will balance Tuon's belief that the Dragon must kneel to the Crystal Throne.

 

I'm not saying that Tuon will be desperate and begging, I'm saying that she will be in a much more malleable postion.  She will not see herself to have the luxury of a securely conquered territory at her back.

 

I don't see why thats so... his army would have to pass through Andor anyway, what need have he to influence the ruler of Andor?

 

Aside from which its more than improbable that he wouldn't encounter news of Elayne's assention to the Lion Throne--at the very least he would know that she held Caemlyn.

 

Uhmm, Illian is ruled by one of his best friends since childhood, and the world's only hope of survival, I think that trumps any friendhip Mat might have with Rand's girlfriend.

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

Uhmm, Illian is ruled by one of his best friends since childhood, and the world's only hope of survival, I think that trumps any friendhip Mat might have with Rand's girlfriend.

 

True.  But nobody in authority in Illian knows anything about Mat.  Or the Band.  Those in charge in both Cairhien and Caemlyn know who Mat and the Band are.

 

Regardless, Mat has to go north before he goes anyplace else.  He, the Horn, the Dragon, the Empress, and Jak'o'the Shadows may all end up in Illian eventually, but he has a rather extensive itinerary of places to visit first.

[Luckers]

You're absolutely right, Mat would send at least the part of the band that is with him away, when he send everyone else away.  If a large portion of the Band goes to Illian, then it makes sense that Mat would end up there after the tower of Ghenji, but I pormised we wouldn't talk about that ...

 

Why on earth would any portion of the Band go to Illian, when they are heading to Andor, and Mat has a target in Andor.

 

 

Why would he head to Andor?  He's much closer to Murandy, and the Manatherendrelle.  He's also traveling in the company of the man that was there during his first trip past the tower of Ghenji and his first trip along the Manatherendrelle.  It is simply the fastest way for Mat to get to the tower, and the easist place to dispers his following.  Unless you think Mat's going to take the whole army to the tower with him?

 

What precisely are you suggesting will occur? Mat and the Band are heading directly towards Andor--yes, they will part ways at some stage, no one doubts that, but in what way does the manetherendrelle have any form of relevance? They will seperate, but nevertheless both are heading to Andor.

 

Uhm, Illian is the MOST accessible of the three.  Remember that major river I mentioned above?  Illian has the second largest shipyard in the entirety of randland as well as the largest tanning operation in the world.  If there is a place to mass manufacture gunpower, Illian is it.

 

... what? They're heading north... how does that make Illian accessable. And it what way is woodworking, or shipbuilding relevent to the building of projectile weaponry? Andor has an excess of new manufacturies, as well as the natural mining resources that would allow people to to actually construct such weapons.

 

Mat maneuvered his army through the gap out of nessecity, he hated every minute of it.  If you recall, Mat actively tries to avoid large armies that might try to kill him.  Don't forget, Andoran forces have already threatened war with the band if it moves into Andoran territory once.

 

Actually, they havn't. They threatened the Aes Sedai. Furthermore Andor is aware they cannot resist the presence of Dragonsworn in their nation. Aiel, Saldaean, Asha'man... They don't like it, they don't grant them power, but they don't attack them. And with thatm, the easy negotionability of the situation would bring Elayne's attention.

 

I'm not saying that Tuon will be desperate and begging, I'm saying that she will be in a much more malleable postion.  She will not see herself to have the luxury of a securely conquered territory at her back.

 

And your implying that as such she will be inclined to agree to meeting in Illian, which implies that she is desperate and begging since in a normal mindset she'd never come close to agreeing to anything of the sort... indeed, you used the word begging in your layout. Tuon would never come close to any of that, so yes, it holds through.

 

Uhmm, Illian is ruled by one of his best friends since childhood, and the world's only hope of survival, I think that trumps any friendhip Mat might have with Rand's girlfriend.

 

A generic political relationship with randoms who more often than not do not even know Rand, much less Mat, outways the relationship he's established with Elayne--which, despite your phrasing, is their relationship, not an association established by Rand's romantic entanglements?

 

 

I don't get this divergence. You have your theory, i understand--but Mat and the Band are headed to Andor, whose Queen Mat has a personal relationship with--as does Aludra--and who trusts him, and whose capital has the only stated infrastructural setting capable of the massproduction of firearms, and whose nation has the only stated natural resources to sustain such a venture.

 

You dance around it with obscure political connections Mat might establish in Illian and Cairhein--but they simply don't hold mustard against that one paragraph above. Sorry.

[cloglord]

Why on earth would any portion of the Band go to Illian, when they are heading to Andor, and Mat has a target in Andor.

 

Mat has a personal target in far western Andor that would require him to move at the reduced speed of an army while trying to equip said army on a sustained march to no effect.  Moving the band south by means of the river, would be the quickest way of getting his army into completely friendly territory with the size and infrastructure in place to handle the logictics of feeding and supplying his army.  So the question really is, why on earth would he take the half of his army that is with him on a goose chase through the wilds of Andor, when he has the perfectly good oppurtunity to send them somewhere that can house and feed them?

 

 

What precisely are you suggesting will occur? Mat and the Band are heading directly towards Andor--yes, they will part ways at some stage, no one doubts that, but in what way does the manetherendrelle have any form of relevance? They will seperate, but nevertheless both are heading to Andor.

 

The river has importance in that it provides the easiest method of transporting large numbers of soldiers to a useful and convienient location.  Any other route requires the marching of the band through territory that would likely not appreciate have an army of dragonsworn marching through it.

 

 

... what? They're heading north... how does that make Illian accessable. And it what way is woodworking, or shipbuilding relevent to the building of projectile weaponry? Andor has an excess of new manufacturies, as well as the natural mining resources that would allow people to to actually construct such weapons.

 

Mat is heading ultimately headed North.  At the moment the group is headed more or less towards Murandy and the Manetherendrelle.  There is no requirement that the band goes so with Mat.  It is a pretty simple military maneuver to take an army that is headed one way, and have it go another way.  Here this map might help.

 

 

You can see that the Malvide narrows follows the Lugard road into Murandy.  There does not appear to be a good route North to White Bridge except for the river.  The lugard road will take them to the Manetherendrelle where they will have the choice of going upriver to whitebridge, down river to Illian, through Murandy, (which is already all geared up to fight the Band, or overland through largely uninhabited norther altara to meet up with the whitebridge road.  Any trip for the band to Andor is going to either face supply troubles, or troubles in murandy, or a river trip to Whitebridge.  If they take the river to whitebridge and then march to camelyn it will take that much longer, and will put pressure on Elayne to adress the issue of yet another foriegn army marching on her capital.

 

Actually, they havn't. They threatened the Aes Sedai. Furthermore Andor is aware they cannot resist the presence of Dragonsworn in their nation. Aiel, Saldaean, Asha'man... They don't like it, they don't grant them power, but they don't attack them. And with thatm, the easy negotionability of the situation would bring Elayne's attention.

 

Uh yes they have, at the same time that the Andorans stood their ground in Murandy against the Aes Sedai, they stood their ground against the band.  Neither army was allowed entry.  Secondly, Elayne has a history of trying to get these foriegn powers OUT of Andor not inviting them IN to Andor.  If Mat and Elayne's relationship is so good, you would think that Mat would consider the possibility that if Rand's forces aren't welcome, his might not be either.

 

 

I don't get this divergence. You have your theory, i understand--but Mat and the Band are headed to Andor, whose Queen Mat has a personal relationship with--as does Aludra--and who trusts him, and whose capital has the only stated infrastructural setting capable of the massproduction of firearms, and whose nation has the only stated natural resources to sustain such a venture.

 

There is no indication that the band is headed to Andor, it is headed towards Murandy, at the moment  The personal friend that you mention, has a proven track record of trying to kick out the armies of her friends.  Andor is not the only nation with infrastructure capable of producing firearms, even ebou dar has a bellfounder.  The mines of Andor are directly assesible by the same river that would deliver them to Whitebridge, and Illian has direct acess to all of the ingredients nessecary for the propellant nessecary to make those firearms useful, something that Andor does not have.

 

You dance around it with obscure political connections Mat might establish in Illian and Cairhein--but they simply don't hold mustard against that one paragraph above. Sorry.

 

For starters I've not made one connection to Carhien that's Maj's baby.  Secondly, Illian is the only politically stable, friendly nation within his reach.  Andor is too hot and unstable to welcome the band, Murandy is itching for a fight, Ghealdean is in ruins, and Altara is in the hands of the Seanchan.  There's nowhere left to go.