Civil War Mafia: The Abolitionists Are Coming! Game Over!

[Alys Kinch]

dpr, vemy did not have a guilty conscience. he had no extra information at the time of his "i'm going to die" post. sorry. as for that, consider the case closed with him not wanting people to think he was trying to cheat because he wasn't. the end.

 

thank you.

 

and i'd like the rest of my night actions soon, guys.

 

barms meant to say that night will end thursday morningish, not that thursday will end thursday morningish. *blows kisses to barms*

[DPR]

I'm going to make a list of events that have occured during the game that I believe we can count on as concrete evidence. If I miss anything, get it posted so that we can use it. In case I don't get to see the sunrise, my opinions and theories are in blue.

 

FDM and Vemy were Masons. Hopefully we have more than just two, and I would love to think that the mods balanced the game by having as many Masons as Mafia. This way, at least somebody has an idea of mow many more mafia we are dealing with.

 

Kivam was a turncoat. This would imply that he did not start out on the mafia team. What triggered his ability to join their team? Is it possible that there are more turncoats? Was he the only turncoat, or just a turncoat? And has anyone's play style (besides Blig's  :P) changed noticibly during the game?

 

Outside of turncoats, I can't see having fewer than 3 mafia. So I think it would be fair to say that we are dealing with at least 2 more regular mafia as well as any additional turncoats/recruits, etc.

 

FDM was a Mason

Vemy was a Mason

Kivam was a Turncoat

Blig was an Eavesdroper

??? is a Day Killer of some description.

 

Jelly has claimed to be a Finder

Dude has claimed to be a Finder

May has claimed to be a Thief

I have claimed to be Prisoner

 

I think it would be fair to say that the mods are fulfilling their promises concerning roles and complexity. We need to figure out how all of this fits together. And if possible, speculate on what else is out there.

 

I've looked back through Sirayn's posts and she does a lot of re-capping of events, not leaving a lot of clues that I could find. But, she did go after May. The question is why: Here is where I've got to transition from fact to what-if scenarios.  

 

Sirayn could have gone after May because May claimed an unusual role. There was also the mix-up with the names, and Sirayn is absolutely talented enough to spot this as an opening, push a lynch, have May turn up innocent, and still say that May looked suspicious so she was a good candidate. And this logic makes sense - it has happened with Vemy and now Blig, and Sirayn would have knocked one more innocent (with the power to extra vote) out of the game. I think that this is the most likely scenario.

 

Or, Sirayn could have been protecting May.  The evil team spots a voting anomaly, and then sends in a player to claim a role that explains it. Then one evil does the old "Kivam Gambit", and they have a protected player on the field.

The problem with this, as has been discussed, is that the Kivam/Sirayn machine would not set up a player to false claim a role that tthey could not prove. And May has been very open about her role. I just wish that we had seen it in effect on that last lynch. It bugged me a little that she just voted and did not even mention her ability to double vote - but not enough to doubt her claim. I just wanted to mention it just because it did happen.  All of that, and I don't think that Sirayn had any idea that she was going to die whe she did, so there was no point in setting something sloppy up. So, I think that the first scenario makes more sense.

 

As far as the Kivam/Sirayn machine goes - Kivayn? - I do not think for one second that they did not have some plan that they were working. They would have also known that they were high profile players, likely to be investigated, so they would have planned early. It could be argued that Kivam is a more effective player after he is dead, simply because everyone's gaurd is down - he's out of the picture - but the plan is still working.  Combined with Sirayn, that threat is doubled.

 

But - on the bright side - they are both gone, and there is only so much that they can do from the grave.  And I second Luthine in saluting the player that took Sirayn out! Excellent work!

 

Blig's loss was bad, but not unexpected. It happens in every game, but it should make us go back and review all of our evidence.

 

The Finder situation has become more and less confusing for me. More because I was all but convinced that Dude was mafia, working a false claim with Kivam. Less, because the obvious answer may be the right one. I've looked at it up and down and aside from being unbalanced, which Alys spefifically stated as a goal when creating the game, there are some fundamental flaws that I don't think Kivam and Sirayn would have overlooked:

 

1.  Using the same logic as I did for May, I really don't see those two setting up a false claim that could not be supported. It makes no sense to me.

2. I really don't think that a Kivam/Sirayn/Dude combination would have set up a just a fake finder claim. That would be like saying a quarterback known as one of the league's greatest passers, who was known to sneak and score, and who had redifned the game by inventing new plays, was just going to depend on line drives during the Super Bowl. This makes no sense to me either.

3. Kirayn would have known that they had no idea what to expect from a game with variant and new roles, and I don't see them wasting a mafia member on a gamble that they could have no way of knowing whether it would succeed or not.

4. I also don't see Dude agreeing to play such a role. Despite his protests, he is a skilled player and certainly has the experience to avoid a bad play.

5. I think that one of their plans would have had more follow-through, and not wound up as the sticky mess that we have now.

 

There would seem to be a possible mod theme in place. Pairs. There are 2 mods. We had 2 Masons (I hope we have more, but we don't know, so 2 is a possibility). We had 2 mafia masterminds. We have 2 finder claims. I'm not going to go and on over this one - it's just something I noticed and could support the idea of two handicapped finders. And, all of the above points apply to Jelly as well.

 

That's what I got for the finder situation and evidence. I'll be back with suspects and reasons after I take care of a few work things.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[loki redfern]

no, loki, i don't think i'm going to be doing any of those things.  ;)

 

for the record, i didn't view kivam as guilty.  i viewed him as a turncoat.  [glow=blue,2,300]i wasn't given an alignment[/glow], just a role description.

 

i'm outta here for the day.  let's see what happens overnight...  have a good one you guys.

 

Sure, thing, Sirayn.

 

(1)  Kivam's a dangerous player.  It was between him and you, and I went with him.

 

(2) [glow=blue,2,300] At the time of my viewing viewing, he showed up as currently innocent.  [/glow]I'm inferring right now that he's evil.  He voted for 2 innocents yesterday, which is suggestive, and for the rest, I'm banking that he won't resist the temptation to turn.

 

(3)  I see your point here, and I don't have a logical explanation here.  The cat's a little out of the bag anyway at this point, so I guess this is moot, but I'm going on gut with this one.

 

(4)  My PM says that I have the normal finder role, with the added bonus of getting one "free" viewing at the beginning of the game, which was an innocent.  That could be suggestive I suppose, of there being others, but I'm not really thinking so.  There was no explicit mention of such a thing.

 

And I know it was risky, but I think you'll find that this should work in our favor, if you'll indulge me and give my claim some credence.

 

the dude is a lieing liar who lies.

yes dude, you can curse my imaculate memory if you wish.

 

 

untill i remebered that, there was also the fact that you aboslutly refuse to admit that you could be wrong and are pushing so hard for a jelly lyynch. which is leading me to believe that rather than a inoccent with inforamtion, you are mafia pushing to control a lynch and get what could be our actual finder. baring anything else, my vote is on you tommorow :-*

[the dude]

sigh (i do that a lot this game, it seems)...

 

loki, do what you want...  i'm tired of defending myself while working my ass off for an innocent win.  ;)

[Daetirion]

Loki, you are a LEGEND

 

Lych All Liars come's into play again

 

Having said that i was seriously considering what DPR was saying about having two finders - it might be metagaming but for some reason i wouldn't be surprised if it fits

 

However with theDude now proven to have been lying...

 

*will be joining Loki*

[the dude]

::)  actually, i've been proven to have an imperfect memory.  but whatever.

[loki redfern]

well its a pretty big blip to forget finder results , i would actually like you to try and explain, since i didnt read wes post first and its given me a few doubts?

[DPR]

 

Yeah, I love typing for 20 minutes for nothing.  I'm going to run down to the optimetrist for some glasses SO I CAN SEE  :P

 

Let Dude explain if he wants to, but this is kind of bad slip.

 

[the dude]

there's nothing to explain, loki, and it would be wasted effort, so i'm not going to bother.  if forgot, didn't bother to double check, and that's that.  do with it what you will.

[Verbal32]

Wow.  Good eye Loki.  I guess I don't feel as bad for having a vote on the dude a few days ago.  Barring anything crazy, I think Loki is right.

[the dude]

enjoy this all while it lasts, mafia team.  ;)

[Blig Blog]

Someone...

 

i don't know if i can tell you... :-\

[the dude]

best not to, blig.

 

on the bright side(ish), it looks like i'll be joining you soon.  at least you'll have some company.  ;)

[loki redfern]

um im gonna guess that you should leave any telling or not to the mods

 

sorry wes :-[ i was gonna post it earlier ..er but.. RL ya know, and i cant talk on the fone and type at the same time .. and it just seems too convenient sorry dude . damn youve made me feel guilty now :P you are so evil

 

and blig sorry bout the lynching but you style in this was was seriously different from even the other games that your playing at the moment ..er if its any consolation, ill think twice before i do it to you next time :)

[Alys Kinch]

this tells you all you need to know.

 

http://forums.dragonmount.com/index.php/topic,30771.msg820539.html#msg820539

[Daetirion]

Oooooh

 

Oh that might be useful

 

Right, im going back through the list (*cringe* why did we post so much?) to look at exactly who Blig protected. If two or less are actively defended, we can presume innocence. If more than two... well either he didn't eavesdrop untill after the start or he was honestly gaming.

Anyway thats all conjecture until i go back and check

[Sirayn]

*cries like a sad, mafia-less reject who has no evil team to scheme with, no victims to kill and nobody to lie to any more*  :'(

[the dude]

i'd have a lot more sympathy sirayn if i hadn't borne the brunt of your machinations.  :P

 

well-played.

[Mayleigh Aes Sedai]

k well i was convincenced that dude was innocent untill what loki said! but then again it could be the maffia team sceming im not sure yet i need to keep an eye on that!

 

Also befor i sent in my night action any suggestions on whos vote i should steal??

[the dude]

don't steal mine; if i make it through the night i'm gonna need it.  ;)

[DPR]

 

At this point I like your idea of stealing an inactive's vote - you could steal bcx's again (and i totally forgot that that was the plan when I posted that last bit - my mistake)

[Daetirion]

Epic long post incoming - not intentional, as i was only rereading to see who Blig was protecting - kinda turned into more than that

First the Blig Situation

 

On the idea that he knew about two innocents from the very beginning, the following is people he accuses or not.

 

1. The Dude - Generally AntiTheDude so we can presume not. Specificly replies #387 p33 and #590 p50

2. DPR

3. FDM

4. LOki - Quite possibly. Generally supportive, and follows suggestions - replies #140 p12 and #430 p36

5. Thorum - Not known - reply #50

5. Sirayn

7. Luthine - Not Luthine - very anti in pages 49-50

8. Daetirion - Possibly, see reply #590 p50

9. Blig Blog

10. Vemynal - Not Vemy - reply #208, p18

11. Leelou - Possibly, see reply #590 p50

12. Soybomb

13. Verbal - Possibly, see reply #590 p50

14. Naeann - Quite possibly - 'not feeling' the lynch in #387 p33

15. Kivam

16. jelly - Originally very pally in reply #299 p25, but from #703 on p59, consistently against

17. bcx

18. mayleigh - Not Mayleigh - reply #494, p42

 

Waded through every post, no real mention of DPR, FDM, Sira, Soy or BCX. Hopefully people would be able to draw their own conclusions but i'm feeling he knew Nae and Loki weren't/aren't Mafia

 

Other things that cropped up on a Read through

 

Didn't set out to look for these. First, Sirayn. Accuses Jelly in reply #204 p18, in a manner i would argue isn't the pair of them working together. Is similarly (but i argue to a lesser degree) critical of TheDude in reply #273, p23 - specific mention of how Mafia-esque his late claim is. Eventually pushes Jelly before TheDude as a lynch target in reply #688 on p58.

 

Another thing i noticed was Kivam vs TheDude. Given how quickly i read through it, at the start it did feel Kivam gambit esque. However the general tone radiated away from this i think. I really can't decide whether it is or isn't but might be worth a reread for those of you with time on your hands

 

Voting Patterns and Player lists

 

(copied from Sirayn around p60 - should be correct, esp after that)

 

Day 1

Thorum (4) - nae, kivam, dpr, daet

blig (2) - luthine, Thorum

boyo (2) - the dude, jelly

daet (2) - leelou, loki

kivam (1) - boyo

leelou (1) - verbal

dpr (1) - vemy

luthine (1) - bcx

 

not voting: fdm, sirayn, blig, may

 

Day 2

vemy- (11) jelly, dae, luthine, leelou, blig, sira, may, dpr, nae, the dude, Kivam (stolen by May).

dpr- vemy

 

not voting: Loki, soybomb, verbal, Bcx

 

Day 3

kivam- may, blig, loki, jelly, luthine, the dude, dpr (not counted because -->, DPR (stolen by May)

the dude- verbal

verbal- kivam

 

not voting: Sirayn, Dae, Leelou, Soyo, Bcx

 

Day 4

jelly- boyo, leelou, may, BCXanth (stolen by May), the dude

blig- loki, luthine, dpr, blig, verbal, dae, jelly

 

Not voting: n/a

 

1. The Dude

2. DPR

3. FDM - dead night 1

4. Loki

5. Thorum - dead day 1

5. Sirayn - assassinated day 4

7. Luthine

8. Daetirion

9. Blig Blog - lynchee day 4

10. Vemynal - dead day 2

11. Leelou

12. Soybomb

13. Verbal

14. Naeann - dead night 3

15. Kivam - dead day 3

16. jelly

17. bcx

18. mayleigh

 

Green = Innocent, Limegreen = Finder Claim, Red = Mafia, Pink = Turncoat, Orange = Masons, Yellow = Prisoner Claim, Brown = Thief Claim

 

Praying that was ok, 'cause it is hellish trying to work out exactly what is going on in this game! This post took me over an hour so hoping i can use it as a starting point for any subsequent ones

[Daetirion]

Dammit

 

Guess where i forgot to close italics >.<

[Verbal32]

Good post Dae!

 

Some comments on your thoughts:

 

First, Sirayn. Accuses Jelly in reply #204 p18, in a manner i would argue isn't the pair of them working together.

I would agree with you here.

 

Is similarly (but i argue to a lesser degree) critical of TheDude in reply #273, p23 - specific mention of how Mafia-esque his late claim is. Eventually pushes Jelly before TheDude as a lynch target in reply #688 on p58.

I'm not sure if you are insinuating that Sirayn and the dude are in cahoots, so please clarify that for me if you can.  If you are insinuating that, which would make sense based on your first quote I put in this post, then I would also agree.  Based on what Loki dug up, it does appear that the dude has been caught lying.

 

Hopefully people would be able to draw their own conclusions but i'm feeling he knew Nae and Loki weren't/aren't Mafia

Here's where I agree with you 100%.  I think that Loki is innocent, and that Blig knew it.  And Blig was sorta anti-dude....

 

Speaking of the dude,

 

i'd have a lot more sympathy sirayn if i hadn't borne the brunt of your machinations.  :P

 

well-played.

If you haven't proven to everybody (who hasn't played with you before) in this game that you are a supremely talented player, then I would argue that person is completely blind.  For those that have played with you before, I'm sure they already knew this.

 

Trying to forget what Loki dug up, I am getting a mafia vibe from you more and more each day as you attempt to deflect attention & blame.  Now including what Loki found, I am totally no longer worried about having placed a vote on you the other day.

[Blig Blog]

Edited as per request. Blig, PM me if you are concerned about it, please don't post here.