Civil War Mafia: The Abolitionists Are Coming! Game Over!

[Daetirion]

[glow=red,2,300]unvote Jelly[/glow]

 

Well we knew this game wasn't going to be easy...

[the dude]

:)  thanks DPR, i appreciate that.    :)

 

and it has been a long time now; i missed it myself, and as soon as the game started i was just waiting for a good time to brush it off.  i purposely stayed away from it in the corner pub because i just am not as comfortable about making unequivocal claims based on random hunches, especially with newer players.  success rates aside, it's just not cool to be on the receiving end if the target's not mafia.

 

not that i imagine it's all that fun even if they aren't.  :P

 

i'll say this.  i was getting suspicious after all the effort to put suspicion on me and stop the jelly vote, but i find myself at least partially willing to believe you for now.  it's a tough position to be in if it's true, because effectively there's no good way to verify it; if i view you you'll show up as mafia, and if we lynch you then we'll lose the last voter (that's the bomb role right?).  i'd like to see if anyone has a brilliant plan around this one.  8)

 

and DPR, while i'm running on the theory that you're on the level, i just wanna point out, regarding jelly's viewings:

 

-1st viewing - wrong (Vem)

-2nd viewing - "correct" (you).  i use " " because of your stated role description, here.

-3rd viewing - wrong.  now, i'm basing this last one on knowledge that to anyone else is suspect, i know, but what i'm saying is true, so it's all i can think to say.

 

now, speaking from the point of view, for a second, that i'm not completely trustworthy, since i know that's where you're coming from, if you look objectively at the above results, it's pretty screwy, don't you think?  even if you considered (and by the way, i don't recommend it) that her viewing of herself was accurate, there's still that first viewing which wasn't.  i don't know how one would explain that.  personally i'm not gonna try, because i don't feel the need to.  i know she's mafia, and i'm not gonna bother inventing theories for the evil team.  but i think it's an inconsistency that's worth looking at.

 

[DPR]

My replies are blue.

 

How do we go from Dude being a prime suspect to him claiming Jelly is mafia, and everybody believing him?

 

are we reading the same game, DPR?  seems to me like it's not quite as cut and dry as all that, thus far.  now, i don't mean that to sound adverserial, just to be clear.  i'll go on through and address your questions.

It's exactly as cut and dried as that, and the more defensive you get, the more I have to wonder abut your alignment. I'm asking for calm and cool reflection before a possible game losing mistake is made.

 

He's done nothing to earn any additional trust, and the only claim he's been correct on so far was Kivam.

 

thing is, that's the only claim that's been put to the test.  i can't really help that, and like i said, i would have had this information a day ago, and another viewing besides, 'cept kivam blocked my view on one night.  i see your point that i could have viewed someone less obvious, but from my point of view, i wanted to be able to function from here on in without worrying about the x factor of jelly.  i know what i needed to know now, and we can proceed from here.

We've been through all of this. Hell, you've admitted that some of this looks bad for you. Now all of the sudden you are blame free? And it sounds like your mind is made up, without even hearing what everyone else has to say. Just like it would be if you were working a plan.

 

That could easily be explained by them working together. And as for motivation, how about this: take out our only finder and call it square. Then the Kivam/Dude dust-up has at least produced results, we have no finder, and 2 or 3 low laying mafia will kick into gear now and probably win the game.

 

a valid concern, and i don't know what i can say to reassure you at this point.  given that anything i say is still suspect, there's not a whole lot of point, is there?  i've given all the information i have, save my confirmed innocent.  if you have any questions, by all means, fire away, i'm happy to answer them. I believe I am....

 

So if it's cool with everyone, I'd like to hold off on the votes until we get this sorted out.

 

you do what you want.  my vote stays where it is. As it would if you were mafia...

 

oh, in case it wasn't explicit enough, i vote for [glow=green,2,300]jelly[/glow].

 

Dude, why not just come out and claim Jelly as mafia in your first post? This made me feel like you feeling for a reaction from people before you claimed.

 

well, i was away for 2 days with a very bad cold.  first thing i did upon logging on was to come in and apologize for the absence.  then i went and re-read.  just bein' polite is all.  that, and i posted before reading, so i didn't know if i was, say, killed in my absence.  that would have been a huge gaffe, if i'd revealed my viewing after being killed.  Pure foolishness. You would have checked your PM's, and you would not have received one if you were dead. There was no reason to post what you did except to check the weather, as it were.

 

Then you try to tag her as an Insane Finder. She replies that she never siad she was insane. Many have speculated that she could be paranoid or random. Interestigly, Kivam kept implying that she was insane. And now you have pickd it up.

 

DPR, the insane finder theory for jelly has been flashed around so much at this point (while kivam was the biggest defender of the theory, it was vemy who first mentioned it) that i don't think it holds a whole lot of water to try and pin that on me.  every time i ask jelly a question about her "viewings," i'm trying to give her a chance to add inconsistencies to her story for the rest of you to find.  she's playing very tricky, and the more tricky one plays, the more places one can make a mistake.  now if her results don't seem inconsistent to you, then we're definitely not reading them the same way. I think I've been very clear that both of your results have been inconsistent. Who's playing the tricky game? Again, I'm asking that we not rush to a lynch and you are trying to force one. That's pure mafia. I can't believe I'm asking for everyone to analyze the evidence more carefully and you are going lynch crazy. This reminds me of Kivam posting before he died, sweraing he was innocnet.

 

Why would jelly claim herself innocent if she had said she was insane? Are you saying that she's pulled off this brilliant deception only to drop the ball on such an dumb mistake?

 

i can't speak for jelly.  what i know is this:

 

she "views" vem, "sees" he's mafia.  we lynch him, he's an innocent mason.

 

next she "views" you, DPR.  her "viewing" says that you're mafia.  you and the mafia are the only ones who know at this point what your alignment is, so i can't testify to that for the moment.  i say the mafia know your alignment because, either you're on their team, or you're not, so that pretty much tells them.

 

then she "views" herself, and sees herself as innocent.

 

tell me how that adds up, i'd love to hear it. WIFOM - please. Everybody knws that the possibilities are many. that's why we need to be careful

 

I really wanted to see which of the finders was going to post first, and I was very interested in seeing who they investigated. I even posted that I hoped Dude did not go for the obvious play, which would be to take Jelly out.

 

ok, i know you had a plan you wanted to try and all, but i'm gonna say again; i really didn't want to go forward without finally solving this jelly question for myself, once and for all.  no matter what else, i needed to have that information for my own peace of mind.  i make no apologies for that, especially given the result i received. You seem to be making a lot of decisions that don't make sense to the innocent team. First, you let Vemy die. Now you are trying to lynch Jelly. Does this sound like an innocnet game plan to anybody?

 

If Jelly had posted that she viewed Dude, and found him innocent, I would be extremely suspicious. But she viewed herself, and claimed herelf innocent. This either makes her a mastermind player, or she's reporting results as they are given to her.

 

i'm sorry, but viewing oneself is completely useless to my way of thinking.  unless this game got REAL weird and people are mafia and don't know it, then it's silly to waste a night action on something that you know already, and which isn't verifiable by anyone else.  that is, it wouldn't be verifiable if jelly was the finder and i was not.  Everybody jumped all over her for not viewing herself before. I wish she had done somethig else, but I see where that decsion came from and it makes sense.

 

Dude claiming that Jelly is mafia is just as suspicious, very aggresssive, totally predictable, and at a time when he has no credentials to back him up except for his claim on Kivam which sparked an entire conversation abotu the Kivam Gambit.

 

suspicious?  i can see that, because of how the game has gone so far.  i get that and respect it as an opinion.  agressive?  sure, why not.  i'm a revealed finder and i have a guilty result, on a player who's gone a long way to stalling the innocent team out.  yes, i want her lynched.  quite badly in fact.  i'll make no secret of that.  predictable?  i say logical.  i think it makes perfect sense, given all the uncertainty, for me to try and verify her claim. Knowing that you probably have exactly one more day to pull off a finder lynch because so many people have said that they don't trust you.

 

and again, that last sentence...  what you're saying is i have no proof that i'm finder except that i've successfully outed a turncoat who had switched sides.  now, i know which angle you're coming from, a mafia would know the same thing.  but, well, that's what i've got.  i can't make up information, or rather, i choose not to.  if people get behind the jelly lynch, well, i'll have another notch on my belt, and hopefully we can end this debate.

 

Could be me, but it seems a bit too easy. I'll have more in a minute.....

 

i know what you mean, but it is what it is.  i've presented my information, made the plays i thought were appropriate, and that's pretty much it.

 

haha, damn that took a long time to type up.  :P

 

Took a long time to answer as well....

 

I'm saying that we need to be sure about who we lynch. Anyone flying off the handle is supect in my view. We know that there are more than just one mafia left, so 'et's put the squezze on a few other players and see what we come up with.  As far as the finder thing goes, I have to say that Dude is acting the most like mafia right now, and I am getting much closer to getting over my fear of being wrong about him.

 

[DPR]

 

:)  thanks DPR, i appreciate that.    :)

 

and it has been a long time now; i missed it myself, and as soon as the game started i was just waiting for a good time to brush it off.  i purposely stayed away from it in the corner pub because i just am not as comfortable about making unequivocal claims based on random hunches, especially with newer players.  success rates aside, it's just not cool to be on the receiving end if the target's not mafia.

 

not that i imagine it's all that fun even if they aren't.  :P

 

i'll say this.  i was getting suspicious after all the effort to put suspicion on me and stop the jelly vote, but i find myself at least partially willing to believe you for now.  it's a tough position to be in if it's true, because effectively there's no good way to verify it; if i view you you'll show up as mafia, and if we lynch you then we'll lose the last voter (that's the bomb role right?).  i'd like to see if anyone has a brilliant plan around this one.  8)

 

and DPR, while i'm running on the theory that you're on the level, i just wanna point out, regarding jelly's viewings:

 

-1st viewing - wrong (Vem)

-2nd viewing - "correct" (you).  i use " " because of your stated role description, here.

-3rd viewing - wrong.  now, i'm basing this last one on knowledge that to anyone else is suspect, i know, but what i'm saying is true, so it's all i can think to say.

 

now, speaking from the point of view, for a second, that i'm not completely trustworthy, since i know that's where you're coming from, if you look objectively at the above results, it's pretty screwy, don't you think?  even if you considered (and by the way, i don't recommend it) that her viewing of herself was accurate, there's still that first viewing which wasn't.  i don't know how one would explain that.  personally i'm not gonna try, because i don't feel the need to.  i know she's mafia, and i'm not gonna bother inventing theories for the evil team.  but i think it's an inconsistency that's worth looking at.

 

 

Hey, also, you're welcome!

 

And It's probably a good time to say that this is just a game!. That last post got my heart rate up a bit, and I will admit that this is exactly why I love these games and players like Dude, who rock at them.  But in RL. we are all friends!

 

Now, I stand by my perspective, but am very interested to hear everyone elses!

[Leelou]

See my gut is telling me that you (Wes), Jelly and Dude are all lying liars who lie, but I don't have much to back it. This is why my vote will stay on Jelly. Also I've played the whole "I'm a bomb" role as mafia in the Nuthouse game, so it would not surprise me if you tried it.

[the dude]

i'm not sure what else i can say, D.  i didn't think i was being defensive, i thought i was just answering questions.  but hey, read it how you want.

 

it's not that i'm blame-free.  clearly, at least one person is blaming me for not going along with their plan.  but i won't apologize for going with that i thought was right, and which has paid dividends.  

 

i guess i'm foolish, then, because the first thing i did was post an apology for being gone for 2 days without saying i would be, then i read back.  but what i meant about being dead was not regarding a nightkill (i did have the PM about my viewing), but being lynched in the interrim, if the mafia had successfully campaigned for my death.

 

why are my results inconsistent?

 

my push for jelly's lynch would be very consistent with a finder witha  guilty viewing too, i think.

 

as for jelly viewing herself, well, everybody wanted her to do it, except me.  like i say, i fully believe it to be completely pointless.  others may differ in opinion, but that's my take.

 

let me know if you've got any more or if i missed any, D.  :)

 

and yeah, totally, man.  i was kinda gonna put something in myself about adverserial dustups in-game not being taken too seriously.  fire away man, i won't take it personally.  8)

 

[the dude]

clarification; i know that you know that it's just a game and not to be taken too seriously, and i know that you know that i know the same.  ;)

 

so we cool, right?  :P

[Barmacral]

This is not a game. This is real. The person who loses this game WILL be put into slave labour IRL.

 

On a side note, Wes and the Dude are right here, keep it civil everyone.

 

Not that I'm sure as to what exactly is civil about war...

[the dude]

look at your young men fighting

look at your women crying

look at your young men dying

the way they've always done before

[DPR]

Totally cool. ;D And I know it's meta-gaming, but I also can't imagine dusting the CA off for a false accusation. Let it be noted that as usual, you have my instincts going off in every direction. At least some things never change. heh

 

Now I'm going to attack Leelou for laying low  like a low laying liar who lies, and then popping up to say that she thinks that me, Dude, and Jelly are all mafia. Because it would make perfect sense to say "Hey! Let's put most if not all of our team out in the middle of the ruckus. We can all claim wacky roles, and then post endless streams of information about ourselves so that others can pick us apart at their low laying leisure! Sounds good, right!"

 

I have to say, it is almost to convenient that I ask to put the main event on ice and review the low layers, and then a low layer pops up and says "No! pay attention to the main event!".

 

I leave it up to my fellow players. We need fresh perspectives and hopefully some good insight into what we should do. I've called for the players who have not said much in this game to come out and tell us what you think. Again, our advantage lies in our ability to put all of this through multiple filters to get to the most likely truth.  Anytime you are ready would be great. I have to step out for a couple of hours, so if anyone wants to attack me, now would be a great time. ;)

[the dude]

*throws cream pie at the back of DPR's head*

 

now, it is metagame, and there's an easy counterpoint to this, but i gotta say, i'm awfully fond of CA, and well, yeah...  i'd hate to ruin it.  the obvious counterpoint being "well, there you go, no one would expect you to fake it!"  but yeah, nuff said on that score.  ;)

 

i am taking what you're saying seriously, D, i'm not sure if that's evident, but i am.  i know this is likely small comfort, but i just can't bring myself to not push for this lynch.  if i can secure it, things will hopefully start being a bit clearer. *shrugs*

 

and i have been paying attention to who says what and when, and who doesn't say what, when.  i've got some ideas, but i'm keeping those cards close for now; so much better to just give people rope and let them do the work.

 

if sirayn gets her RL situations resolved, she could probably do a mafia thesis with the game by now.  :P

[the dude]

i know i harp a lot on that, but i was just so looking forward to watching that girl work...  ah well.

[DPR]

 

Agreed. I can't believe we finally got her back in a game, and then she's gone again. I can only imagine what she'll say about all of this when she finally sees it. 

[the dude]

i personally can't wait to hear it.  ;D

 

i'm gonna be out of here for the weekend in about 20 minutes, so if anybody had any questions or anything, now would be the time, otherwise they're gonna have to wait till monday.

[the dude]

well, i think that maybe folks just aren't on right now.  ah well.  have a good weekend guys, i'll see you all monday.

[loki redfern]

um im still reading through so i reserve the right to change this back but [glow=red,2,300]unvote jelly[/glow] the bit where the dude waited before posting his result  it didnt ping at first but the waiting for other mafia it fits, is why i took so long in the bt game while i was still posting other places

[loki redfern]

um ok random theory while still reading through, jelly has a miller role maybe .. that explains both her viewing if you assume she is an insane healer, and also it would explain the dudes? just as an alternative theory think here

[Leelou]

Well you have to look at Jelly's viewings:

 

She viewed Vemy as Mafia night 1 and he was innocent...

 

She viewed Wes as Mafia night and he claims on day three, after he didn't get lynched and Jelly revealed her viewing of herself, that he has some weird role (prisoner) that makes him turn up guilty and now he's a bomb...

 

She viewed herself and shows up innocent...

 

so if what Wes says is true then she only came up with a wrong reading for Vemy which makes me very suspicious of the lot of them.

 

[Sirayn]

I'm back.  8) Catching up on 30-odd pages now.

[Sirayn]

Right. Okay.

 

Preparatory to what I hope is a stupefyingly long mafia thesis  :D, is this an accurate summary?

 

GAME EVENTS

 

DAY ONE: Thorum is lynched.

NIGHT ONE: FDM is killed. She is a mason.

DAY TWO:

* Jelly claims to be a finder. She investigated Vemynal and found him guilty.

* Vemynal is lynched. (vote count) He is a mason.

* the dude claims to be a finder. He investigated Kivam and found him a turncoat. He inferred from this that Kivam was evil. (claim)

NIGHT TWO: No kill.

DAY THREE:

* the dude claims to have been roleblocked.

* Jelly claims to have investigated DPR and found him guilty.

* Kivam claims to have roleblocked the dude.

* Mayleigh claims to be a vote thief. (Holy improbable victims, Batman!)

* Kivam is lynched. He is a "turncoat who turned mafia". (vote count)

NIGHT THREE: Naeann is killed. She was a roleless innocent.

DAY FOUR:

* Jelly claims to have investigated herself and found herself innocent.

* the dude claims to have investigated Jelly and found her mafia.

* DPR claims to have a new role: the Prisoner. He comes up guilty under investigation.

 

FINDERS

 

Finder variants!

Accurate = accurate

Naive = all innocent

Paranoid = all guilty

Insane = reversed

Random = does exactly what it says on the tin

 

JELLY'S INVESTIGATIONS

1. Vemynal = guilty. (Inaccurate.)

2. DPR = guilty. (DPR says this was an accurate result even though he's innocent.)

3. Jelly = innocent. (No idea.)

CANNOT BE an accurate finder since first result was inaccurate.

CANNOT BE a naive finder since two results were guilty.

CANNOT BE a paranoid finder as third result was innocent.

CANNOT BE an insane finder because she found herself innocent.

CAN BE a random finder.

CAN BE mafia.

 

THE DUDE'S INVESTIGATIONS

1. Kivam = turncoat. (Accurate.)

BONUS: ? = innocent. (No idea.)

2. Roleblocked. (Kivam says he roleblocked the dude that night.)

3. Jelly = guilty. (No idea.)

CAN BE an accurate finder.

CANNOT BE a naive finder since he has had guilty results.

CANNOT BE a paranoid finder since he has had innocent results.

CANNOT BE an insane finder because one result was accurate.

CAN BE a random finder ... I think? Maybe? Not too sure.

CAN ONLY BE mafia if in league with Kivam. This would explain his confirmed accurate viewing and the roleblock.

 

ROLES & ALIGNMENTS

 

Confirmed innocents: Thorum, FDM (mason), Vemynal (mason), Naeann

Confirmed mafia: Kivam

(NB: no mason survivors.)

 

Survivors:

1. The Dude (claimed finder)

2. DPR (claimed prisoner)

4. Loki

5. Sirayn

7. Luthine

8. Daetirion

9. Blig Blog

11. Leelou

12. Soybomb

13. Verbal

16. Jelly (claimed finder)

17. bcx

18. Mayleigh (claimed thief)

[Sirayn]

My first burning question of the moment is for Mayleigh (bolded for attention). You role revealed as a "thief" - your night action "makes my votecount twice while i steal some one elses". You stated that your targets were:

 

night 1 - kiv

 

night 2 - DPR

 

I had no reason relly just picked people!

 

Are you seriously saying that you picked Kivam and DPR at random? I find it hard to believe that you accidentally stole the votes of two of the strongest players in the game. That's like drawing the Ace and King at random from a suit of cards - only this suit has 18 cards so drawing the Ace and King is even less likely. If you stole a third strong player's vote last night (and I reserve the right to arbitrarily decide who fits my profile here :P) I am absolutely calling ulterior motive.

 

The fact that you vote stole Kivam, who turned out to be evil, is not a defence because according to the dude's viewing (which was accurate in other respects) Kivam was "currently innocent" that night. Also, stealing your evil partner's vote could be a quick and easy distancing mechanism - even if Kivam had been evil at that stage, you even voted the same way as him, so he didn't exactly suffer.

 

I'd also like to add that while I'm not enormously suspicious of you, and without a counter-claim I accept that you are indeed a vote thief, your innocence does not follow automatically from your role. Vote stealing is an awesome role for a mafia player. Most innocents don't have any power except their ability to think, reason ... and vote. Plus you can use your shiny extra vote for evil. I'll have better suspects and evidence thereof, but you're certainly on my list.

 

Any response? Whose vote did you steal overnight?

[Sirayn]

And now I've actually looked at the vote counts, how come you claim to have vote-stolen DPR on night two, but on day three DPR successfully voted for Kivam?

[Sirayn]

(If you have a short attention span, skip to the Analysis section.)

 

VOTE COUNTS

 

Red = mafia

Green = innocent

 

DAY ONE: No official vote count. Thorum counted up the last vote count.. He was lynched because he had "given rise to the most suspicion" (Alys). Last vote count was:

 

Thorum (4) - nae, kivam, dpr, daet

blig (2) - luthine, Thorum

boyo (2) - the dude, jelly

daet (2) - leelou, loki

kivam (1) - boyo

leelou (1) - verbal

dpr (1) - vemy

luthine (1) - bcx

 

not voting: fdm, sirayn, blig, may

 

DAY TWO

 

vemy- (11) jelly, dae, luthine, leelou, blig, sira, may, dpr, nae, the dude, anonymous.

dpr- vemy

 

(NB: Kivam attempted to vote Vemynal, but was vote-stolen by Mayleigh.)

 

DAY THREE

 

kivam- may, blig, loki, jelly, luthine, the dude, dpr, anonymous

the dude- verbal

verbal- kivam

 

Surviving non-voters:

DAY ONE: sirayn, blig, may

DAY TWO: loki, soybomb, verbal, bcx

DAY THREE: sirayn, daetirion, leelou, soybomb, bcx

 

Analysis

 

Okay, from the top.

 

The day one vote count is unhelpful because only 4 votes were placed on the lynch victim. I don't know if the evil team knew that the most voted-for person would be lynched even without a majority vote - this information would be helpful, but I suspect the mods-that-be aren't feeling that generous. If they knew, it's likely that Kivam was the only person on that lynch, there being no need for the others to put their heads over the parapet - of course this requires that Kivam actually was evil on day one, which would make the dude either his evil partner or a very bizarre finder. If they didn't know, a high proportion of the day one lynchers should be evil, which leads me to suspect DPR and Daetirion. On the other hand, there are so many ifs in this paragraph that I'm not keen to treat it as evidence.

 

Day two is pretty much a wash. It's standard protocol that when a finder claims with a guilty result, you lynch the guilty result. The longer you wait, the less likely a counter-claim and the more compelling the reasons to lynch that guilty result. This means that it was in all the innocents' best interest to vote for Vemynal. Indeed, we had a high turnout, with 11 (counting Kivam instead of anonymous) votes out of a possible 15 (total players minus two dead minus Vemynal himself) on Vemynal.

 

Day three is deliciously informative. We have an evil player: Kivam. He has evil partners unknown. How did we get from daybreak to lynchin' time?

 

(Day three is about a billion pages, so I'm going to do it in a separate post.)

[Luthine]

I asked Alys that question, she reckoned she messed up the vote count but Kiv was still dead anyway.

 

And good to have you back btw ;)

 

I'll come back to post my thoughts Monday

[Mayleigh Aes Sedai]

Night one- kiv

 

Night two- DPR

 

Night three- Bcx- becouse i had prevously stated i was going to take an inactive players vote and had asked if any one had any iedas but no one answered me so i chose bcx.

 

And as for big players kiv i just picked no reason well maby i was swayed a bit by the whole editing post thing butthat was about it.

 

and DPR well At the time there waas some suspitions going around about him plus I knew it would  probs anoy him. but I dont think he even voted that day Wescan you confirm that i could be wrong.

 

Also Alys can you con firm thats whos votes i stole??

 

the easy way would be to finder me but with the whole dude jelly thing you couldent be certin so ill leave it up to ya'll