Civil War Mafia: The Abolitionists Are Coming! Game Over!

[Sirayn]

One thing I do know for sure, though, is that I'm in fact the real finder.  I decided, when she posted, to let it slide, to see what might fall out of it.  I think that our resident analytical genius Sirayn should have a field day with this; my gift to you.  ;)

 

You're so sweet. ;)

 

If you're on the up, I feel holding off on your counter-claim until the end of day was an extremely risky plan. There was a small, but serious risk that both Jelly and Vemynal were evil and if Jelly had successfully lynched an evil player, both you and basically all the innocents would have been in deep trouble. Obviously it was your call as the finder (again, if you're on the up) but it kind of makes me twitch.  :-\

 

Some questions for you:

 

(1) Why investigate Kivam?

(2) When you say "Kivam's a turncoat.  And by his actions, I'd say he's decided to join the dirty abolitionists" do you mean that (a) your investigation result found Kivam to be a turncoat who is on the side of the abolitionists, or (b) that your investigation result found Kivam to be a turncoat and you infer from game events that he is evil?

(3) Are you, uh, really sure you want us all to be 100% certain about your finder investigation tonight? I mention this only because of the fine old mafia tradition of killing investigation targets overnight. And I'd rather not have Jelly night killed until we've had a chance to prove or disprove the possibility that she's an insane finder, eg. her results, when reversed, will be accurate.

(4) Did your original role PM give you any reason to believe there might be other finders active and/or that finder results might not be definite this game?

[Sirayn]

Jelly, if you're around, I'd appreciate it if you'd think about question (4) as well.

[Naeann]

Does no one else remember that MASONS TURN UP GUILTY IN FINDER REPORTS?

[Sirayn]

You're thinking of millers, I think. ;)

[Daetirion]

That's Millers not Masons Nae...

[Naeann]

lol Ooh yeah *facepalm*  I was like... why is no one else thinking of that.. :P

[Alys Kinch]

masons are an innocent block that can communicate outside of the game thread.

[Sirayn]

I think this game has conclusively proven that we haven't played with enough masons in the past. :P

[the dude]

Sure, thing, Sirayn.

 

(1)  Kivam's a dangerous player.  It was between him and you, and I went with him.

 

(2)  At the time of my viewing viewing, he showed up as currently innocent.  I'm inferring right now that he's evil.  He voted for 2 innocents yesterday, which is suggestive, and for the rest, I'm banking that he won't resist the temptation to turn.

 

(3)  I see your point here, and I don't have a logical explanation here.  The cat's a little out of the bag anyway at this point, so I guess this is moot, but I'm going on gut with this one.

 

(4)  My PM says that I have the normal finder role, with the added bonus of getting one "free" viewing at the beginning of the game, which was an innocent.  That could be suggestive I suppose, of there being others, but I'm not really thinking so.  There was no explicit mention of such a thing.

 

And I know it was risky, but I think you'll find that this should work in our favor, if you'll indulge me and give my claim some credence.

[Naeann]

No... I know that Alys... I was just mixing them with the Millers lol.

[loki redfern]

i hate you all. all 8 pages; two finder reveals, a lynching  and a role revel by a finder and a false mafia viewing, of you.

 

 

[the dude]

awww, ferny....  don't hate me because i'm beautiful.  :-*

[DPR]

 

Whoa there amigos - let's just stick with what we know for absolute certain - that's the best, fastest, clearest way to get to the bottom of this.

 

1. I've looked back at the role descriptions and did not see turncoat. Barmakinch did say that they had created new roles, and I believe them, but if its an unknown, than we need to treat it that way.   That means that we have to seperate what we know to be true vs. what possible scenarios could exist.

 

Dude, did you get any other information about the role? Does he get to choose when to turn? For obvious reasons, I'm a fan of your finding. But I don't want to set off a chain reaction of events that could have been avoided because we did not take the time to reason out the role (having recently been involved into rushing headlong into a trap, I'm a bit gun shy atm.  :) )

 

Let's collect everything we know about this role, and I suspect others have new roles as well. They don't have to reveal them, but it won't hurt to bring up a point based on something you know. Don't be a Vemy!

 

As for the finder role, we obviously have some confusion over this. Again, given the description of the game, that does not come as a surprise. But let's make sure we agree that know what we are doing before we make any moves.

 

*Calling the healer to yourself does leave Jelly exposed. Much better to leave it up to the helaer to choose, and at least turn it into a guessing game for the mafia.

 

If Sira was right about the ratio of evils to inns, we are at 10 inns to 5 evils right now.  We are facing a night kili, which brings us to 9/5, and if our lynch tomorrow bags another inn we'll be at 8/5. The nk brings us to 7/5 which means we get one more lynch to hit an evil or we are looking at the endgame. That's 2 more chances to lynch - so let's be as sure as we can. The Vemy thing is going up sideways with me right now.

 

It would also be foolish not consider that you had an "alternative finder" role as well -and i don't think that the mod tells you this, else what's the point? - or that  a night reveal would be a perfect time to false claim, taking into account  Jelly's claim and Vemy's lynch.

 

I guess my big point is: the mafia will try to get us to kill each other off and bring us to endgame as quickly as they can, so let's try to stay as organized as possible and reason through this.

 

I love the idea of Dude as finder.  Let's just proceed with caution.

[Blig Blog]

Why so many new pages...?

 

:(

 

Sure, thing, Sirayn.

 

(1)  Kivam's a dangerous player.  It was between him and you, and I went with him.

 

(2)  At the time of my viewing viewing, he showed up as currently innocent.  I'm inferring right now that he's evil.  He voted for 2 innocents yesterday, which is suggestive, and for the rest, I'm banking that he won't resist the temptation to turn.

 

(3)  I see your point here, and I don't have a logical explanation here.  The cat's a little out of the bag anyway at this point, so I guess this is moot, but I'm going on gut with this one.

 

(4)  My PM says that I have the normal finder role, with the added bonus of getting one "free" viewing at the beginning of the game, which was an innocent.  That could be suggestive I suppose, of there being others, but I'm not really thinking so.  There was no explicit mention of such a thing.

 

And I know it was risky, but I think you'll find that this should work in our favor, if you'll indulge me and give my claim some credence.

 

(1) I agree

 

(2) I'm not too sure about that. The info. is, as you say suggestive, but i really don't feel it.  :-\

 

Question: If he turns evil, then can he, at any point and time, turn back to the innocents?

 

If so, then maybe he might try to take out a lot of innocents and then turn back, so that he can single handedly take the good team out. Getting him more points, or if not more points, then more recognition in this game.

 

i hate you all. all 8 pages; two finder reveals, a lynching  and a role revel by a finder and a false mafia viewing, of you.

 

*pats Loki on the back* It'll be alright.  ;)

 

Dammit! let me post this thing!

[the dude]

1. I've looked back at the role descriptions and did not see turncoat. Barmakinch did say that they had created new roles, and I believe them, but if its an unknown, than we need to treat it that way.   That means that we have to seperate what we know to be true vs. what possible scenarios could exist.

 

this is valid, but i can only go off what i'm told, of course.  i see why someone would take my claim with a grain of salt, though.

 

Dude, did you get any other information about the role? Does he get to choose when to turn? For obvious reasons, I'm a fan of your finding. But I don't want to set off a chain reaction of events that could have been avoided because we did not take the time to reason out the role (having recently been involved into rushing headlong into a trap, I'm a bit gun shy atm.  :) )

 

the PM was pretty vague.  without quoting, it said that he's an innocent who can turn evil and will appear innocent until he does.

 

*Calling the healer to yourself does leave Jelly exposed. Much better to leave it up to the helaer to choose, and at least turn it into a guessing game for the mafia.

 

duly noted, and i see your point.  this is up to the healer at this point, i suppose.

 

It would also be foolish not consider that you had an "alternative finder" role as well -and i don't think that the mod tells you this, else what's the point? - or that  a night reveal would be a perfect time to false claim, taking into account  Jelly's claim and Vemy's lynch.

 

another good point.  i'll be completely bamboozled if i've a screwy role too, but all's i can say is that this is the information i've got right now.

[loki redfern]

could be a plot to save jelly,

 

the dude claims, views jelly, sees as innocent ,

 

anyone else claims (ie the real finder) they get labled as a crazy or a random, jelly gets paranoid, and dude get the 'normal' and can direct the game

 

 

[DPR]

Could be.  Although at this point, I feel like it's more important to collect info than to look at possible scenarios, because we could go round and round with that and wind up getting more confused. I also think it's important to hear from everybody else on this. Everyone who has been shy or not saying much needs to check in and post whatever you think you can that will help. We are still in night, and we don't know who's going to get killed.

[the dude]

that's one convoluted scheme there, red.  you give me a bit more credit than i deserve there.  :P

[Alys Kinch]

for your information, and i'll have no arguments, it's alysacral!

[Blig Blog]

for your information, and i'll have no arguments, it's alysacral!

 

I object! *nods*

 

I say that it do be Balys!  :D

[Alys Kinch]

*balefires blig*

[Kivam]

Wait, what?  Dude, this doesn't make any sense to me (on a number of levels).

 

1) My role PM was short and sweet.  Said nothing at all about being given an opportunity to flip from innocent to evil.  And if you think that given the opportunity to do so I would take it, then you don't know me very well at all.  I win with the team I'm given - anything else is cheating, IMO, whether the role allows it or not.  I'd never choose to switch sides (in fact, I always turned down DPR's "moral dillema" actions for just that reason).

 

2) Even if I had that option, and was the type of person who would chose to turn, what exactly is it that I did that makes you think I actually did turn?

 

You say I voted for 2 innocents - but according to your story you know I was innocent at least on Day 1, when I voted for Thorum.

 

On Day 2, I voted for Vemy only after we had what looked like a finder reveal, just like pretty much everyone else (if you'll recall I was looking at DPR as the best way to get information, something that I doubt is still true today).  Could you explain to me why voting for someone identified as evil by a finder and without a counterclaim makes me look evil?  

 

3) if you really are the finder, and you really got information night 1 that says I could turn evil later in the game, why would you reveal on a hunch.  If you really thought I was evil you could just have investigated me again tonight.  Why risk revealing yourself if there's a chance I could still be innocent (which I am)?

 

4) If you really are the finder, why not counterclaim before we lynched Vemy?  If Jelly was mafia, she could have been identifying a teammate to cement her status as the real finder, and you would have been useless from then on (since nobody would believe you if you revealed).  That's a hell of a risk to take (not to mention costing us another innocent body) just to "see how things play out"

 

5) If you got this information last night, and your calling me evil is based on my vote for Vemy today, then why were you prepared to issue a Cromwell Approval yesterday??

 

None of this makes sense.  Either you are playing this very dumb - which isn't like you - or you're lying . . . which I think might be the real explanation for all this.

 

Here's what I think happened:

 

1) Barm and Alys told us we have some weird roles, and some twists on old roles, active in this game.  I think that means that Jelly is our only finder, and she isn't paranoid, she's insane  (an insane finder gets opposite results)

 

This explains why there was no counterclaim from the "real" finder during Vemy's lynch - there is no "real" finder.  Jelly is it.  She just needs to tell us when she gets an "innocent" result and we'll know who to lynch

 

2) The mafia figured this out as well, which explains the Dude's sudden interest in claiming "real" finder.  Watch what happens:

 

a) the healer protects the Dude tonight and not Jelly (note how he called for the healer to protect him, not to pick between him and Jelly).  This gives the mafia a free shot at Jelly.  She gets revealed as the insane finder.  Come the morning, Dude says "no big deal, we still have me"

 

b) The next day, I get lynched based on the Dude's hunch.  I get revealed to be an innocent.  the Dude says "well, I guess he hadn't turned yet"

 

That's two innocents down, one the only finder we have, and without any real exposure for the mafia (since the Dude has plausible deniability: "oh, I didn't falsify a finder result, I just told you I thought he turned")

 

Thats a hell of a plan - I wish I'd thought of it.  And it makes me think Jelly should be investigating the Dude or Sirayn (who the Dude decided to annoint as the analyst in his post) tonight.

 

 

 

 

[loki redfern]

its bitty, and thats how its staying

 

omd *dies form longpostinitus*

[the dude]

Hi Kiv, how ya doin'?  8)

 

I can't say I'm certain you've turned, but I do know you've got the potential, which is important to know anyway, and it's taking a chance to let you live.  

 

Now, I'll admit to projecting my motivations on you regarding whether to switch or not; all apologies if I'm wrong.  But it's a heck of a gamble to let you hang around, wouldn't you say?  Obviously there's no point in going in depth on whether or not you're telling the truth about your PM; I know you're not.  ;)

 

My feeling that you're not going to stick with the good guys is based on the same thing I base most game decisions on; your behavior gives me a weird feeling, and I'm going with it.

 

Letting Jelly run with her claim was not a popular decision, I'm seeing, but it's what I went with.  I think that it's going to give us some nice clues on future lynches.

 

My comment for 2 innocents was about Day 2 specifically, but of course, that's running on an assumption that DPR is innocent too.  That's just what it is:  an assumption, and one that could be wrong.

 

Now maybe I'm wrong and you're not going to turn, but I don't think it's safe to assume that.

 

I'm revealing now because that was my plan from the start.  Jelly's "viewing" has produce an innocent lynch.  I think that's worth pointing out, wonky role or no.

 

And actually, the Cromwell Approval was going to come out tomorrow, after another viewing.  8)  I didn't want to view you 2 days in a row when I could be checking others out instead.

 

Heh heh, I'm not try and go toe to toe with you Kivam; I doubt I stand much chance in that contest.  I can't say I have any new info to offer aside from what I've given; you guys'll have to decide who to believe here, I'm afraid.

[the dude]

Oh, and I'd just like to point out the ubiquitous trend of wordiness in the guilty...  Just sayin', Kiv.  ;)