Ship Wreck Mafia - game thread-

[Kivam]

Oh don't even try to blame me, I can't edit your post. :P

 

And Kivam, to answer your question, if there is a Symp in a game, they win with the evils. So yes, in that case the game would be over at a 3+1+4 situation.

 

So that should clarify for everyone that I'm not a symp, and that there can be no symp in the game at all, in fact.

 

 

[DPR]

 

 

Got it. Eight players, three evils most likely and no symps.  And as long as the mods are helping with questions, you wouldn't care to tell us who the evils are, would you?  ;D

 

And, since we have no symp, I unvote [glow=red,2,300]Kison[/glow]. I still think he and Kivam represent our best chances at hitting an evil, but I want to be sure.

 

[DPR]

 

Wow. I need to get some more sleep and try this again later.  :P

 

That would be [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow] Kison. *falls asleep at computer*

[Talya]

Kivam, I think I answered this before. I couldn't see what you were trying to say about the role Barm had...all I saw was you coming on strong, trying to manipulate me. I'm sorry but the evidence didn't seem clear to me (didn't know about the role...need to read up more I guess, should make the time...so my bad). However howmany times have we told people not to direct the Healer/Finder. As I could not see this logic of yours, I was not about to let manipulate who I chose to heal...sorry. It's easy to look back in hindsight...but I had you down as an evil...why should I believe you?

 

Who said my logic is anything but flawed...sorry I'm not a great Analyst like you guys. I hope that you are innocent Kivam otherwise we will wish we got rid of you day 1 (though I do love you too :))

 

AS we know Danya was the finder, and she had two nights of viewing people it would be great to know who they were, we can but specualte, I would like to think that you Kivam were one of them, but we don't know. :-\

 

I have no idea where to go at this moment...I'm tending to look for the quieter ones. Will have to reread through if work allows it.

 

 

[Leelou]

Ok, I'm all caught up finally. Kison, I really would like an explanation of your vote on me. I know during day 2 when you voted me Danya asked you the same question and all you answered was that you wanted to see me or Talya lynched, which you still want. That really did not answer the question. You have never had anything on me except you thought my logic was flawed. Which brings me to [glow=red,2,300]Boyo[/glow] so far you really haven't done anything but go with the flow, except your intended vote on me. ATM I'm way too tired to go find quotes, but I will if I'm asked for my reasoning.

[Kivam]

Here's my analysis of what just happened - either Kison is evil, or at least two of Naeann, DPR and Loki (and if its only 2, likely Naeann and Loki) are.

 

Here's why - Kison just spent a decent amount of time with 3 votes on him - Naeann, Loki, and  DPR.  If Kison were innocent, and there were two evils remaining free to vote, they would have piled onto Kison and lynched him with 5 votes, thus winning the game.

 

So, my deduction is that both conditions can't be true - either Kison is guilty (in which case the remaining evils don't pile on) or 2 of the 3 votes already on him are (leaving too few evils free to complete the lynch).

 

Of the four, I'd say DPR is least likely to be evil, since he was the 3rd vote on Kison and just pulled it off - and under either scenario, those aren't the actions of scum (if Kison is evil, scum wouldn't be the third vote on him, not this close to endgame, and if Kison is innocent, why would scum pull their votes off of him when they are so close to victory? Especially since if the day ends without a majority lynch, 3 votes on Kison would likely be enough to take him down?)

 

Unless anyone can see a flaw in this analysis, I suggest that we concentrate our attention on Kison, Loki and Naeann.

 

Thoughts? 

[loki redfern]

Oh don't even try to blame me, I can't edit your post. :P

 

And [glow=purple,2,300]Kivam, to answer your question, if there is a Symp in a game, they win with the evils.[/glow] So yes, in that case the game would be over at a 3+1+4 situation.

 

 

So that should clarify for everyone that I'm not a symp, and that there can be no symp in the game at all, in fact.

 

 

which is funny you should ask really, when earlier you seem to know:

...

 

The only other option (which isn't true, but looking at it without knowledge of my own PM from Nephi) is that I'm a symp, who couldn't have communicated Barm's role to my evil masters via PM, and needed to alert them in thread.  (Of course that still doesn't explain why I'd beg the healer to protect Barm, but since you're determined to ignore that for reasons I can't quite grasp, lets put that aside). [glow=purple,2,300] I'm not a symp, but if you think I am, then why vote for me??  Symps count as innocents in the tally and even if I were a symp killing me would get us nowhere closer to a win.[/glow]  So if you believe I'm a symp, then don't trust me - but don't lynch me, either.

 

the only reason i didnt vote for you earlier as iv said quite a few times was that last glowy bit, which i naively took your word for *bangs head against wall*, and if there are no symps as you have kindly proved (or even if there are they should be lynched) then you must be evil, the attempt at a talya lynch the pointing out becky and then night killing him because you knew talya was the healer and proably wouldnt protect becky under a direct order like that , voting  vemy off just like that; basicallly you have directed most of the game to your own tune, which seem to be an evil one, played upon the rickety banjo of sir francis drake and the gingerbread man... er where was i.. tune.. pied piper .. ahh [glow=red,2,300]kivam[/glow] = evil because (yay i get to say it) hes a lieing liar who lies .

and evil to boot.

 

grr i hate it when peeple post while im typing

[Kivam]

Here are my deductions by player (I'm including my own status, which I know by PM, to make sure I include everyone.  If everyone can make a list of similar deductions, it will probably help):

 

Kivam - innocent.

 

Talya - almost a lock innocent; no reason not to have had a counterclaim.  Eliminate from lynch candidates.

 

Leelou - almost a lock innocent; no reason to defend Talya early in the game.  If you're evil congrats, you've got me completely fooled.

 

Wes (DPR) - Likely innocent.  Has been helpful and analytical throughout, and current actions smack of innocence whether Kison is innocent or guilty.  As with Leelou, if you're guilty, congrats, because you have me fooled.

 

Kison - Either evil with Boyo and a third or innocent.  See below for explanation.

 

Boyo - Either evil with Kison and third or likely innocent.  See below for explanation

 

Naeann - Either evil with Loki and a third or innocent.  See below for explanation.

 

Loki - Either evil with Naeann and a third or innocent. See below for explanation.

 

The Kison Evil Team

 

If Kison is evil, we can safely deduce that Naeann is innocent (since there's no reason to start a bandwagon on your evil partner on an endgame day). 

 

We can also deduce that Boyo is evil, since he's the only unaccounted for player (of the Kison-Wes-Naeann-Loki-Boyo quintet that I think contain our likely evils) who did not vote for Kison.

 

That would leave one of Loki or Wes as evil.  Tough choice between the two, but I'd probably pick Loki based on his past actions, though Wes' removal of his vote on Kison and Loki placing the second vote might argue the other way.

 

The No-Kison Team:

 

If Kison is not evil, then 3 out of the following 4 are likely to be: Loki, Naeann, Wes and Boyo.  All three of Loki, Naeann and Wes voted for Kison, which would be a strike against them - but how likely is it that all 3 votes are from evil players?  On the other hand, why wouldn't Boyo push it to four votes if he is evil?

 

Of the five, voting Loki or Boyo is safest - since they have a legitimate chance of being evil no matter what Kison's alignment is, and their past actions are suspicious.

 

By the same token, however, their death will tell us the least even if we are right.  Boyo less than Loki, since he wasn't among the Kison lynch group.

 

On the other hand, lynching Kison, while extremely risky, will give us the most information - since if he's evil we can confidently take Boyo down the next day and then see where we stand between Wes and Loki.  Of course, if he's innocent, we likely lose (unless Talya guesses right in her protection).

 

Here's how I break it down, then:

 

Safest lynch, least information - Boyo

 

Riskiest lynch, most information - Kison

 

Middle ground (slightly more info than Boyo)- Loki

 

Rethinking it in those terms, I'm going to [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow] Loki.  We're in a bad situation, which means a huge risk may be warranted.  But I think we need to play this like its the end of a basketball game - foul, and try to extend the game as long as we can.  So . . .

 

[glow=red,2,300]Boyo[/glow]

 

Lets hope he's guilty, and that Talya can protect an innocent tonight (Talya, I'd make your protection choice tonight random, since a successful healer protection might win the game for us, and if you keep protecting only yourself there's little chance of that.  Make it random - say, write everyone's name, including your own, on slips of paper and select one at random - and we have a chance)

 

[DPR]

Yeah, this gets back to my earlier post about the obvious being right under our noses the whole time.

 

There is no reason in the world why we should assume that there are three evils and no symp. There could easily be two evils and a symp. A symp would come up as innocent if viewed, so Danya might very well have viewed Kivam and would even the odds for the evils. And, again, we had three players drop out at the beginning of the game and roles did not have to be re-sent, so it is easy to imagine that one person that dropped out probably was an evil, and we probably did not have four against us to start.

 

If there are only two evils, then we will get another lynch, which is good, so let's not be rushed into anything.

 

Kivam has been pinging my radar the entire game, and I think has played a symp role to perfection. I think that there is an excellent chance that Kison is an evil. I think that the other evil will probably be low laying player which means Leelou, Boyo, or Naeann, and there is just not enough of a case against any of them to bring my focus off of Kivam and Kison.

 

I'll not vote for Talya for the same reasons that Leelou brought up, and I don't get the evil ping off of Loki.

 

I have looked back again and sorted through the posts to see who has used reasoning and logic to vote, and who seems to be pushing an agenda by voting with bad reasons, or no reasons.  This is reflected in my reasoning.

 

It is bugging me that the evils knew to take Danya out.  It is bugging me that we keep letting ourselves be led through the game and we have not lynched any evils yet. If we are going to save ourselves, we need to start using logic and everyone needs to post.

 

I am going to wait to vote because I do not see the point is trying to influence any other voters right now. We really need to get an evil on this lynch, and our chances are good. I want the smoke to clear, and I very much want to hear from other players besides Kivam.

[loki redfern]

your basing this on voting patten at the begining of a day .. why would they reveal there hand that early? you talk to fast me dearie . i get to the first point hear and its just to depresingly simplified and assumptive, naeann innocent because she would have started a bandwagon on kisson? that would be one of the best ways to strengten an evils credibility, sacrifising ones own to make you look oh so innocent, espesially with kisson looking distincly evil as well

 

..after that it all got too much for me, again your trying to steer this game with your half-truths and assumption based on quicksand

 

oh another thing because it realy stands out as fast talk,is leelou is innocent because she defended the healer,

1) the evils would have known since night one who the healer was, since thats when the no kill was

2)defending the healer is something evils could do if they knew who because it looks good to they type of ananlysis you just gave

3) its funny how shes at the top of your innnocent list and now you are voting in tandem ..hoping the innocent sheen will rub off onto you?

[Naeann]

Hmmm how to sort out my thoughts into anything understandable...

 

 

1. I've been suspicious of Kivam for a long time... but he, like i've already mentioned, is VERY good at what he does and made me doubt my suspicions of him.  I would be thourougly shocked at this point though to discover he actually IS innocent.

 

2.  Kisson and Kivam have seemed a pair in this game from the start... had i known enough of the mason type role I'd have assumed they might be it before assuming Barmy was.  As it were.. i don't think i've played a game with masons before.. just watched one so it never struck me at all that any players could be masons.  Therefore I think you are both evil.  Why in the world would Kisson suddenly throw a tie breaker vote on Alys moments before the day was due to end?  To protect Kivam from a possible random lynch. 

 

3.  That explains why i left my vote on Barmy... a "confirmed innocent" in Kivam's book.  I'm not as smart as you about this game so no... he didnt seem obviously innocent to me...  I need to go back and see who had votes on Vemy that killed him.  If you were one why did you vote someone who your "obvious innocent" was trying to defend?

 

4. Boyo would be my best guess as to the third evil... he's been barely active thru the whole game.  It's been awhile since I played a game with him but i thought he was normally a bit more active than this.  It's been my observation that one evil usually lays low thru the game.

 

5.  I have no reason at all to doubt Talya.  Her healer story makes sense, no one has contested it, and it would explain the no kill night one.

 

6.  That also explains your erratic and strange behavior that led people to believe you are a symp Kivam.  You knew Talya was the healer since night one and knew if you told her to protect Barm that if she did it shed be killed so she would obviously protect herself therefore leaving Barmy open for the taking.

 

7.  Loki hasn't struck any pings with me... I don't remember any other games I've played with him where he was evil but this looks like normal Loki playing to me.  Good job if you are one of the bad guys hun.

 

8.  Dpr also seems to be innocent to me.  Good job staying alive this long!!  He makes some very valid points and good arguments.

 

9.  Leelou can be tricky... she does well in these games and usually wins when shes on the evil team. Like me she tends to stay semi active.. just enough to let you know we are around but we are still relatively new to the advanced mafia with all you uber experienced players.  I don't normally do these analasis posts for that reason.  You will probably look at my logic and laugh at my stupidity.

 

10.  I think I got everyone but myself?  I know what my alignment is.. I got a pm same as you Kivam... In trying to play more actively I tend to make dumb errors like put my vote on someone that Kivam swears is as good as confirmed innocent... not keeping in mind that all of us dont have your thought patterns or knowledge of different roles.  My other dumb error was taking my vote OFF of you the other day and listening to your manipulative false logic. :-*

[Guest nephitess]

Vote count

 

Kison (1) Naeann

Leelou (1) Kison

Boyo(2) Leelou, Kivam

Kivam (1) loki

 

Day ends Tuesday @ 8PM MST. 34 hours i think. correct me if i'm wrong. :P

[Naeann]

Kivam is on Loki and Boyo but he voted Boyo so Loki shouldn't have any votes now.

[Guest nephitess]

Loki voted kivam....I changed the vote.

[Kivam]

your basing this on voting patten at the begining of a day .. why would they reveal there hand that early? you talk to fast me dearie . i get to the first point hear and its just to depresingly simplified and assumptive, naeann innocent because she would have started a bandwagon on kisson? that would be one of the best ways to strengten an evils credibility, sacrifising ones own to make you look oh so innocent, espesially with kisson looking distincly evil as well

 

..after that it all got too much for me, again your trying to steer this game with your half-truths and assumption based on quicksand

 

oh another thing because it realy stands out as fast talk,is leelou is innocent because she defended the healer,

1) the evils would have known since night one who the healer was, since thats when the no kill was

2)defending the healer is something evils could do if they knew who because it looks good to they type of ananlysis you just gave

3) its funny how shes at the top of your innnocent list and now you are voting in tandem ..hoping the innocent sheen will rub off onto you?

 

Aside from the numerous WIFOM flaws in there, the idea that an evil would start an early bandwagon on one of their own at endgame is ludicrous.  If they lynch an innocent, they win.  No need to try to "look innocent" - if there's a bandwagon lynch of an innocent available, they'll jump on it.  And if it looks like that won't happen, they may go for one of their own later in the day.  But that early?  No way.  (Its possible, of course, but it isn't likely, and at this point in the game, we can only go with what's likely).

[Kivam]

Loki voted kivam....I changed the vote.

 

you still have me voting both Loki and Boyo - loki has no votes on him now

[Kivam]

6.  That also explains your erratic and strange behavior that led people to believe you are a symp Kivam.  You knew Talya was the healer since night one and knew if you told her to protect Barm that if she did it shed be killed so she would obviously protect herself therefore leaving Barmy open for the taking.

 

Look at my behavior again - nothing erratic or strange about it. Vemy acted strange so I called him on it.  Barm revealed himself as a roled innocent, so I asked the healer to protect him. Talya looked most suspicious so I voted for her - and backed off when she revealed. 

 

By the way, the logic of "if I told her to protect barm it would leave barm open" makes no sense at all

 

1) If I knew Talya was the healer and would have to protect herself, then I wouldn't have needed to tell her to protect Barm to be sure to leave Barm open.  She would have protected herself if I never suggested she protect Barm (right, Talya?), so making the suggestion did nothing to make Barm any more "open for the taking" than he already was.

 

2) To the contrary, all saying "protect Barm" would do is raise the likelihood that Barm would be protected.  Even if there was only a 10% chance Talya would listen and protect Barm, that would be more than there was before - so no matter what, saying "protect Barm" would make it more likely that the second night kill would fail (or be aimed at someone other than Barm or the healer)

[Guest nephitess]

Sorry guys, distraced with my studying... *sighs*

 

Oh and thank you guys for posting!

[bcxanth]

Current Votes:

Kison (1): Naeann

Leelou (1): Kison

Soyo (2): Leelou, Kivam

Kivam (1): Loki

 

Not Voting: Soyo, Talya, Wes

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

 

Day 4 ends on Tues Jan 22, at 8pm MST/10pm EST (Approx 31 hrs 10 mins)

[loki redfern]

*poke* why it sounds so ludicrous is why it would work or has worked if naeann turns out to be evil and if you could please find actual flaws instead of quoting meaningless acronyms at me. loki logic works in loki's head but it's a bit agoraphobic

and id rather look at every option first before i just go along with the 'likely' you have been doing the preaching and implementing the 'likely' all game and how many evils have we lynched yet? lets count .. oh wait none :P

so perhaps the unlikely is worth just the smallest of passing glances.

 

 

 

 

 

and vemy isnt the hardest of players to get lynched is he

and until you pointed out beckys reveal.. and im perhaps not the sharpest spork in the box but it was pretty damn obscure.. probaly nobody would have noticed

and why was talya looking suspicious again?

 

so yes not so erratic

 

[DPR]

6.  That also explains your erratic and strange behavior that led people to believe you are a symp Kivam.  You knew Talya was the healer since night one and knew if you told her to protect Barm that if she did it shed be killed so she would obviously protect herself therefore leaving Barmy open for the taking.

 

Look at my behavior again - nothing erratic or strange about it. Vemy acted strange so I called him on it.  Barm revealed himself as a roled innocent, so I asked the healer to protect him. Talya looked most suspicious so I voted for her - and backed off when she revealed. 

 

By the way, the logic of "if I told her to protect barm it would leave barm open" makes no sense at all

 

1) If I knew Talya was the healer and would have to protect herself, then I wouldn't have needed to tell her to protect Barm to be sure to leave Barm open.  She would have protected herself if I never suggested she protect Barm (right, Talya?), so making the suggestion did nothing to make Barm any more "open for the taking" than he already was.

 

2) To the contrary, all saying "protect Barm" would do is raise the likelihood that Barm would be protected.  Even if there was only a 10% chance Talya would listen and protect Barm, that would be more than there was before - so no matter what, saying "protect Barm" would make it more likely that the second night kill would fail (or be aimed at someone other than Barm or the healer)

 

This is the part that keeps pinging my radar. Everybody knows and respects Kivam's abilities to use logic in a game. In fact, he's one of the players that you always hope will be on your team, and he can always smell a rat a mile away.  Except when he's evil (or symping for the evils). 

 

I don't think that an innocent trying to salvage this game would be focused on an accusation or defending an earlier decision. Kivam does not have any more votes against him right now than anyone else, and the focus of the game should be entirely on finding an evil. Not distracting us to looking at past arguments that have not produced any clues yet. This is serving WIFOM, not avoiding it.

 

Kivam's votes have been all over the board, and his arguments built to dissemble. He has not had any strong opinions about who is evil (except for Talya, who's lynch would have helped the evils even more). And out of all of it, he knows good and well why attention is being paid to him. However, he still tries to casually shrug it off with a "no strange behavior here" statement.

 

I'm willing to accept the possibility of him being a symp, but I really do think he is the most tied to evil behavior in the game. IMO, Kison is running a close second, and I would very much like to hear what he has to say before I vote.

[Talya]

OkI'm going to start on day two, becasue at that point I know that the evils had a pretty good idea who I was and they best way to get rid of me would be to lynch me.

 

Kison, he dived on me quite early on, followed later by DPR

 

I would say at least one of these is an evil...maybe both

 

The vote for Barmy...yep it was me that started it and it was flawed, but I have explained that. Loki and then Naeann followed that vote...againI would suggest one of them may also be evil, why, because if Barmy is lynched I look most guilty, and already on Kivams radar...I'd make a perfect suspect.

 

This Day Danya says that Vemy/Kivam look guilty to her, so this suggests she hasn't viewed either of them...so that night she wuld have gone (most probably with either of them...that result we do not know.

 

Day 3 Kivam voted for me straight off the bat, this time the Wes and Kison don't...why, what has changed, at this point I must look good for lynching...Maybe they are trying to not all vote on me so that it doesn't look like the same person is going for me.

 

Now todays votes.

 

Kison: Naeann

Leelou: Kison, Soyo

Kivam: Loki

Boyo: Kivam

 

For me the three that stand out are Wes, Kivam and Kison...I'm not saying they all are, but at least one if not two are...though when Danya came up as dead I think they didn't have to worry so much...so it lessons Kivams case slightly less...so between Kison and Wes are the two I'm thinking at the moment. Will have to sleep on it and read again.

 

 

[Kivam]

OkI'm going to start on day two, becasue at that point I know that the evils had a pretty good idea who I was and they best way to get rid of me would be to lynch me.

 

Kison, he dived on me quite early on, followed later by DPR

 

I would say at least one of these is an evil...maybe both

 

The vote for Barmy...yep it was me that started it and it was flawed, but I have explained that. Loki and then Naeann followed that vote...againI would suggest one of them may also be evil, why, because if Barmy is lynched I look most guilty, and already on Kivams radar...I'd make a perfect suspect.

This Day Danya says that Vemy/Kivam look guilty to her, so this suggests she hasn't viewed either of them...so that night she wuld have gone (most probably with either of them...that result we do not know.

 

Day 3 Kivam voted for me straight off the bat, this time the Wes and Kison don't...why, what has changed, at this point I must look good for lynching...Maybe they are trying to not all vote on me so that it doesn't look like the same person is going for me.

 

Now todays votes.

 

Kison: Naeann

Leelou: Kison, Soyo

Kivam: Loki

Boyo: Kivam

 

For me the three that stand out are Wes, Kivam and Kison...I'm not saying they all are, but at least one if not two are...though when Danya came up as dead I think they didn't have to worry so much...so it lessons Kivams case slightly less...so between Kison and Wes are the two I'm thinking at the moment. Will have to sleep on it and read again.

 

 

 

Vemy was killed day 2.  I think its likely Danya viewed me on one of the two nights, but there's no way to prove that :(

 

Here's the question as far as I can tell - does anyone here feel strongly that Boyo is innocent?  And the corollary: Who else finds Boyo suspicious?

 

To me, he's the slam dunk of the evil crew - played the most under-the-radar game of the remaining players, and voted for a player likely to be innocent in the endgame (Leelou). Thoughts?

[SBoydW]

played the most under-the-radar game of the remaining players

 

That's how I play most games whether I'm innocent or evil, so that in itself isn't any way to judge my innocence or guilt.

 

nd voted for a player likely to be innocent in the endgame (Leelou).

 

As for that, I explained that I was going against your (kivam) logic/reasoning/analysis' whatever you call it, bcause it had been so far off all game.  And to the point where I voted, unless I missed something, you were the only one to say that they felt Leelou was innocent.  So I figured that I'd try going against your logic/reasoning/analysis and see where that led.  But since there seems to be such an uproar about her innocence I gladly [glow=red,2,300]UNVOTE[/glow]

 

The funny thing is... my vote technically never counted because I forgot to glow it. :-[ :-[

[Talya]

Thanks Kivam, I realised lying in bed I had my days mixed, but being seriously tired lately I wasn't going to get up and change it...I guessed you would pick it up. :)

 

As for Leelou, well considering the evils would have wanted me gone, they would have made sure that at least one of them looks innocent, what better than subtely aligning them with me. When I turned up innocent, they would look better than those who tried to lynch me. Trouble is it works either way.