A Memo for Moridin

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

Okay, the most the Shadow could ever do is kill one round of rulers. I believe there is an instance in the books where the Aes Sedai at Salidar are put on alert, and what do they do immediately? From circles of protection, start making plans for defense.

 

Plus, we're looking at a Shadow which is seriously undermanned. At the time of the split, there were 2,000 Aes Sedai in the Tower. Now, assuming the Shadow has recruited quite a bit both outside and inside of the Tower, we could say they have 2,000 dreadlords, maybe. So that is 2,000 channelers, who, while not to be underestimated, are expected to kill everybody in the world in two months?

 

Let's not forget that eventually the Forsaken would start to realize that the DO's plan isn't the same as theirs. That is to say, the DO doesn't really intend to allow humanity to survive for the Forsaken to rule over, like all but Moridin think. He intends to destroy everything, including them.

 

Also, the arrogance of the Forsaken has proven, and is proving to be their achilles heel. They don't believe the people of the current age are intelligent enough to mount an offense/defense that amounts to anything, so they dismiss military geniuses like Gareth Bryne and Rodel Ituralde as fools, believing that when the time comes they can easily dispose of them.

 

And to address the compulsion idea: Firstly, only the Forsaken know the compulsion weave. Would they be willing to teach one of their skills to their minions, even if it meant giving their side an advantage? I think the Forsaken would be intelligent enough to realize that such a weapon could easily be used against them (by their minions, seeking to usurp them). Or if Compulsion got into the wrong hands (Light channelers), it could be just as effective against them as for them. It's kind of like balefire. Just not worth the risks in large quantities.

 

You could kill rulers all you want, but everyone would step up to fill leadership positions, and as I stated, eventually the Forsaken would realize that their killing off everyone, and that there will be no one left to rule over.

 

But it would cause chaos, and a lot could be done during that confusion. However, in the occassion that the Amyrlin was killed, immediately upon seeing her dead body, the Aes Sedai would link up and form all kinds of wards. It would perhaps even lead to the reuniting of the Tower.

 

And people wouldn't turn on each other, either. Once they realize people they thought were the offenders were being decimated as well, they'd eventually figure out someone was up to no good. But they'd make sure they protected themselves properly before trying to figure out who was the evil-doer.

 

Most people would immediately realize that only a channeler could have gotten past their protection (guards and the like), and since they know that Aes Sedai are bound by the three oaths, they'd either suspect Black Ajah/Darkfriends, or the Black Tower.

 

Either way, any kind of counterstrike would prove detrimental to the cause of the DO.

 

But Aes Sedai are spread all over the place, so anyone might get the Aes Sedai to make wards protecting them, if they were nonchanneler. Plus, the unified Tar Valon would probably issue channelers to protect every major lord and ruler. The Blacks having revealed themselves already, there would be no worry of sabotage.

 

And with the capture of even one evil-doer, people would figure out what was happening and set up appropriate defenses.

 

It also might lead to a pre-emptive strike on Shayol Ghul, before the DO's forces were ready.

 

No, the DO being the "control freak" that he is, he wants to fight the battle on his terms, at his time.

 

He'll do anything he feels he can get away with, so he gives his minions some liberties, but he forbids overt attacks.

[lou]

you obviously arent having any fun with this. robert isnt talking about "killing everyone in the world", but there were key people who should have, by all rights, have been targeted early on.my "hit list" would include suian, moiraine, agelmar, ituralde, morgase,elayne, nynaeve,gareth bryne, bashere and min (for good measure). these people were accessible and it would have been a major blow. certainly, they can be replaced, but the calibur of leadership or advice would certainly be lost.

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

However stupid humanity may be, when confronted by a serious total enemy, we tend to act. And no matter if you kill every single great leader, there will be someone to step up if the situation demands it.

 

 

Not if you kill that person, every time a new one steps up.

 

Seems like he is talking about killing more than just key figures to me...

[lou]

you are totally devoid of humor. i thought it was one of the funniest quotes by robert, aside from his depiction of elaida, which is still killing me.

[Mashiara O Aan.a--ein]

Seriously though, at times the Shadow is just so stupid, I want to smack the lot of them on the forehead with heavy scuba gear. Of course I want to see the good guys win, but it's frustrating to see the DO under-utilize so many great resources. There is no legit reason why some of the major characters, just named, could not have been taken out. And keep in mind that our side only recently found out about inverting weaves and such. Before the good guys found out, the Forsaken could easily have used that and Compulsion, as was stated, to do serious damage.

 

No to mention what the Black Ajah could have done. Why were they just sitting in the White Tower doing nothing? Spies? Use the rats, for God's sake. They accomplish so little in the Tower. Many of them could have been out and about doing much more good, or rather bad.

 

I really agree with RAW's kill-off-people approach. Who knows, if they started early enough, and attacked quick and hard, the Shadow may have had victory, or close to it.

 

As for people banding together against the DO, if we can rely on past behavior, it wouldn't happen. Unless they were all suddenly enlightened and transformed into ta'veren. Regarding the people who do believe the DO is breaking out of prison, have they all neatly banded together? Nope. Things like that take time.

[YoungKing]

I seriously disagree.  One of the big issues that Rand has in the series is that people know he is the Dragon Reborn and what that means, but still would love to kill him and forget him.  You think that if Darlin was killed by some random paid assassin near the same time that other leaders were dying or disappearing that everyone would scream it's the shadow and band together?  If the dragon reborn taking over your city does not force you to band together and put aside politics, nothing will.  And, to add some spice to things, they can impersonate rand for some high profile slaughters so that his own people will turn against him.

 

That's simply because they are ignorant. People in Tear and other places where they think Fades and Trollocs are myths seem to think killing Rand would be a good idea, but you think the Borderlanders will be doing that? He saved Cairhienen, let Caemlyn figure itself out, soon to have Mat and the Seanchan under his thumb. Seems like he's got things under control. Also, Rand's constantly surrounded by Aes Sedai and soldiers and Aiel, one could simply say, "No, he was with us in Caemlyn, no way he killed that guy."

 

I did not say every cook and servant.  The first wave will be totally unprotected and you can just travel in, stop their heart and travel to the next person where you compel the cook to put rat poison in the soup, then on to the next place where you kill and immolate the body, etc.  A quick afternoon's work for the undefended targets.

 

Just Travel in? Seriously? Someone Travelling into the Caemlyn palace, considering there is a site set up to Travel to, I think that might be a dead give away. Not many important people are not in the company of multiple channelers. There would be a big arrow saying, "Here's a strange gateway, we don't know where from, what do we do?" I just don't think it would be as easy as you say. Again, you think Greandal is going to go around compelling cooks? not too mention killing someone and burning there body wouldn't leave a huge residue for someone to find.

 

Did you read the last few books where sisters knew that other sisters were being killed using the power and you had the culprit giving the Amyrlin MASSAGES!?!  To be fair, that would be hard to replicate since it took so long and exposed one of their top assets, but I think people are overestimating the defensive tactics that the light would take to all the chaos.

 

To be honest its been a while since I've read 7-11, but I'm talking about DEAD Amyrlins. You think that they will walk in, kill one. Raise another, Kill her, then they kill her, so the Aes Sedai just keep continuing to raise Amyrlins knowing that five have already "mysteriously" died in some way. No, I don't think that would make them think that it might be a good idea to set guards and travel together in multiples. Oh wait, Greandal will just compell everyone, right.

 

Again, I totally disagree.  You could very easily still take out Elayne, Dyelin, Dobraine, Bashere, Darlin, all the borderland rulers, Tuon, Egwene (a little tougher, but very doable by just spiking the forkroot), whoever is in illian, and Elaida.  Dobraine and Bashere were almost killed by simple knife wielders after all, so their protection is not all that strong.

 

Isn't Elayne now surrounded by channelers, after that fight at the end of KoD? Again I'm a little hazy. She protected by the Pattern anyway, she has to have healthy babies. Plus offing one of Rand's girls wouldn't be the smartest idea. See: Rahvin. Dyelin I don't see being a huge deal right now. Dobraine yea, that would be a loss. Bashere... Bashere... I think if rough 100,000 Trollocs and Myddraal couldn't get the job done, he'll be alright. He's also hanging out with Rand and Logain and twenty other Aes Sedai. Yeah, walk in the park. Darlin, well apparently he is to marry a Damodred, so he's not getting killed anytime soon(vision from Min, Pattern). Toun, do they even know where she is? Multiple channelers there as well. Egwene, well she gets sick, unless it's instant they would surely Heal her, and they are probably keeping close tabs on keeping her alive. Whoever is in Illian...Who is in Illian? Elaida, good ridance. Tower is probably Egwene's. Oh and the Borderlanders, well, I would think having nobody in charge would make them ripe for the picking for Rand, nobody to contend against.

 

I just don't think killing a couple rulers is going to hamper Rand all that much. He's Ta'veren, even if it is a cop-out, people are going to do what he says if he needs them to. Most of the people you suggested would be fairly hard to pull off outright killing, I think it's harder than you think.

 

Lastly, I'll say again that greandal WILL NOT want to go around compelling cooks and bodyguards. Forsaken don't want to do little crap like this. I guess we just disagree.

 

Plus, we're looking at a Shadow which is seriously undermanned. At the time of the split, there were 2,000 Aes Sedai in the Tower. Now, assuming the Shadow has recruited quite a bit both outside and inside of the Tower, we could say they have 2,000 dreadlords, maybe. So that is 2,000 channelers, who, while not to be underestimated, are expected to kill everybody in the world in two months?

 

They are undermanned, which is another point to bring up, although your numbers are off, way off. Was just doing a quick reread of A New Spring, and the numbers in the tower twenty years prior are four hundred and twenty-three sisters. We have no acual numbers on the Black Ajah, but they wouldn't be able to pull off basically anything. A number of them probably couldn't even Travel. They just don't have the resources.

 

Like I said before, they had their chance. They are flawed, the Light is stronger. Not sure what else to say. Oh, excuse any spelling errors, pretty tired.

 

YK.

[RobertAlexWillis]

What defenses do they HAVE? None.

 

You know what is helpful? Reading. Reading is helpful.

 

I'm sorry, in what way, exactly, would "reading" be "helpful" here?  You've just admitted that they have no defense against what I've described.  Which is determines by reading the books.  So, all we have is your bald assertion that "They would figure out something".  Forgive me if I'm somewhat skeptical.

 

What it boils down to is, you don't know of any way to defeat the tactics I've described.  Neither do I.  Neither do the characters in the books.  And by the time they discovered them, if they exist, the damage will be done.

 

Wherever Rand is, for one. But again, i dont see and significance to this point. None of the modern channeling organisations have dealt with real channeling threats, so yeah... bit confused.

 

Yeah.  That's not a "place", its a person, and that person is specifically on my "avoid" list.  So, to paraphrase you, I don't see the signifigance of that point.

 

I could say "Reading is helpful" here, but that would be childish and bitter.

 

Yeah, mate, it is. Thousands of people bare the relative intelligence required to lead successfully, the issue is whether they are put in a position when they must. More specifically, it doesnt take any time under such threat. It starts with individuals doing whats nessasary, and moves from there... oh, they wont be organised in the groups previously realised, but even in the sack of Rome it occured.

 

The sack of Rome doesn't even come close to resembling the situation I've portrayed.  Either the immediate fall of that one city, or the fall of the Western Empire as a whole.

 

The intelligence necessary to lead is not the same as leadership.  That intelligence must be honed by experience, and by training, and those are both limited resources.  Randland does not have an unlimited pool of experienced, trained leaders to draw on.  Especially experienced, trained leaders that Rand can trust.

 

You completely ignored my point that such leadership vacccums allow the Shadow to plant their own agents.  You completely ignored my point that communications problems would mean that many times, the "Light" didn't even know of the leadership vacuum for some time.

 

The wouldn't. Upon encountering it, they would. Doesn't take much to set up a channeling guard. Doesn't take much initiative to create shields whenever the leader is in public. Doesn't take much to moniter servants,

 

I'm sorry ... describe "channeling guard"?  And where are you going to get the channelers to "shield" every leader, all the time?  And it takes a lot of effort to monitor all your servants, all the time.

 

Semirhage didn't know where Tuon was. How, precisely, could she kill her?

 

Semirhage knew exactly where Tuon was for years.  The tactics I've described call for Tuon's death long before Mat kidnapped her.

 

Hmm. Shielding all who came into her presence, leashing all women around her. Seems damned effective to me.

 

She didn't shield Semirhage.  How would she know to shield someone who is apparently unable to channel?

 

Yes, i am. It would be a much longer, nastier fight. But yes, i am. And mate, you have no basis for your claim. ishamael at best concidered them prespective threats, not indisposable, and the pattern didn't even dilever that.

 

Allow me to quote:

 

"Egwene was one piece, one thread of the cord that made his life, but there were others, and he could feel them threatened.  Down there, in Falme.  And if any of those threads was destroyed, his life would never be complete, the way it was meant to be.  He did not understand it, but the feeling was sure and certain."

 

TGH ch 46, emphasis added.

 

As for Ishamael's perspective:

 

"'They will not save you,' Ba'alzamon cried.  'Those who might save you will be carried far across the Aryth Ocean.  If ever you see them again, they will be collared slaves, and they will destroy you for their new masters.'"

 

TGH ch 47.

 

The Pattern was jerking Rand around by the collar in that instance.  And Ishamael risked exposing the Black Ajah's existence (which indeed is what happened) to get Egwene to Falme.

 

No, you just ignore what their enemies do in reaction.

 

No, you just ignore the actual consequences of those actions.  It is truly stunning to me the way that you think everyone will just begin to act rationally if you add some stress ... if thats true then the best thing that could be done for the world is to start assassinating all leaders.  All it will do is make us come together, right?  ::)

 

Just Travel in? Seriously? Someone Travelling into the Caemlyn palace, considering there is a site set up to Travel to, I think that might be a dead give away. Not many important people are not in the company of multiple channelers.

 

Um ... YoungKing, just because a Traveling room is in place, doesn't mean you have to Travel into that room.  Rand Traveled into a closet in the Palace of Caemlyn, and not a soul saw him arrive.

 

I just don't think it would be as easy as you say. Again, you think Greandal is going to go around compelling cooks? not too mention killing someone and burning there body wouldn't leave a huge residue for someone to find.

 

She would if the options were "Do this or get raped by Shaidar Haran for not following orders.

 

That's simply because they are ignorant.

 

Yes, people are ignorant, and they're not going to stop being ignorant.  Ever.

 

No, I don't think that would make them think that it might be a good idea to set guards and travel together in multiples. Oh wait, Greandal will just compell everyone, right.

 

Take Halima as an example.  Say the Aes Sedai are "travelling together in multiples".  Someone's head falls off.  They all embrace the Power, and look around, but there is Halima, looking just as scared as everyone.  They feel nothing from her.  She can't even channel, for all they know.  Someone else's head falls off.  They still don't suspect her.  Etc. Etc.

 

Plus offing one of Rand's girls wouldn't be the smartest idea. See: Rahvin.

 

Yes, considering that I already brought up that example, you might want to take a look at what I said.  I'll repeat it, in essence, here.

 

Rand went insane when Rahvin killed Aviendha.  But, he could do something about it, because he knew exactly who did it, when, where, how, and he knew where that person was.

 

If Elayne simply disappears, last seen in the company of Reanne Corly (like the example scenario I mentioned), what exactly is Rand going to do?  He'll lose it, but have no outlet.  No way to bring her back.  No one to go after.

 

He'd go insane.

 

Lastly, I'll say again that greandal WILL NOT want to go around compelling cooks and bodyguards. Forsaken don't want to do little crap like this. I guess we just disagree.

 

They do if they're on a cour'souvra (Cyndane and Moghedien).  They would if the only other option was "Do it or get raped by Shaidar Haran".

 

They are undermanned

 

They are not undermanned for what I've described.  Four Forsaken channelers could carry off the campaign I put out.  They wouldn't have to do it in a day.  In fact, it would be more effective if they spread it out over several months.  That totals up to maybe one killing per week, per channeler.  Well within their abilities.  And over a six month period, thats 96 targets eliminated.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

This argument has reached the point where we're just recycling arguments.  So, I'll conclude my participation here, as well.

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

They are undermanned, which is another point to bring up, although your numbers are off, way off. Was just doing a quick reread of A New Spring, and the numbers in the tower twenty years prior are four hundred and twenty-three sisters. We have no acual numbers on the Black Ajah, but they wouldn't be able to pull off basically anything. A number of them probably couldn't even Travel. They just don't have the resources.

Were you referring to my estimate of how many people were in the Tower, or how many dreadlords there could be? Because I was being perhaps generous in the amount of Black Ajah, etc.

 

They are not undermanned for what I've described.  Four Forsaken channelers could carry off the campaign I put out.  They wouldn't have to do it in a day.  In fact, it would be more effective if they spread it out over several months.  That totals up to maybe one killing per week, per channeler.  Well within their abilities.  And over a six month period, thats 96 targets eliminated.

But you also called for the deaths of those who step in to fill the shoes of those you kill, for which the Shadow would be undermanned.

 

Also, I assumed you were talking about doing these things as of A Memory of Light. You've said you believe there are only about 2 months until the Last Battle. Two months, a legion of channelers, and I don't think they could destroy everyone.

 

Egwene was one piece, one thread of the cord that made his life, but there were others, and he could feel them threatened.  Down there, in Falme.  And if any of those threads was destroyed, his life would never be complete, the way it was meant to be.  He did not understand it, but the feeling was sure and certain."

 

This may be true, but how many of the Shadow actually know it is? It seems reasonable they would go for people close to Rand, but they wouldn't do anything extremely risky in order to not blow their cover.

 

As I said, I think it would result in the revealing of the entire Black Ajah, and uprooting of DF's everwhere probably, if the Shadow acted now.

 

You have to consider that Randlanders who are involved in squabbles between them would soon realize that there is something sinister at work, and they'd stop fighting amongst themselves when they saw that the other faction they are fighting couldn't have done it because they've suffered losses of their own.

 

Cooks and maidservants really couldn't do much assassination. They might have small success, but rulers generally would have taste-testers, and if not, they would implement them soon. And maidservants as well.

 

Don't you think if the Whitecloaks think its the  Witches, and then start seeing witches beeing killed everywhere, they might realize that it's a common foe, like the Shadow?

 

Also, RAW, Halima is the only person who could have great success with assassination, except that by the time the second or third Aes Sedai was killed Aes Sedai would realize it must have been a male channeler.

 

Not to mention, they don't just stay on alert. They set up wards everywhere, even inside their tents to do nasty things to people who channel. That would prevent even Halima from further devastation.

 

I had some other good points in my previous post, but I won't rehash them here.

 

[cloglord]

I'll jump in in defense of Luckers as well.  The following wuote is a good example of both points.

 

Take Halima as an example.  Say the Aes Sedai are "travelling together in multiples".  Someone's head falls off.  They all embrace the Power, and look around, but there is Halima, looking just as scared as everyone.  They feel nothing from her.  She can't even channel, for all they know.  Someone else's head falls off.  They still don't suspect her.  Etc. Etc.

 

According to your example RAW, the first head falls off without a hitch.  But note what you have the rest doing directly after.  They are making themselves a more dangerous opponent, they are readying to defend themselves.  You are correct, they probably wouldn't suspect Halima, and the second head would come off in a similarly easy fashion.  But then there would be further reaction from the group, they might do something that does not help in their defense, but at some point, they are going to run away.  They will keep trying new ways of defending themselves, until they find something that succeeds.  That is exactly why the shadow has not attempted the type of attack that you suggest.  They don't want to tip their hand too early.  Think about it, what's their biggest ace in the hole?  The DO is gonna break out soon.  If the strike that you suggest had happened 2 years ago, it would have given the forces of the light 2 years to organize their defenses and dig in.  Granted, they would have taken massive casualties until they figured out what was going on, but the end result would have been that the DO would have broken out into a world that was ready for him.  If the Shadow waits until the return to launch their sneak attack, it throws everything into chaos at the point of the Shadow's geatest strength.  It turns a slow fight of attrition into a quick and lethal deathblow.  It is the world's most effective use of suprise.

 

Frankly, I expect to see just the type of attack that you suggest in AMoL.  I think it is very likely to be the fate of all the borderlander rulers, it will only be the fact that the pattern will have accounted for this attack by building up Perrin the way that it has that will foil the plan.  Just like it was the fact that the pattern had randomly arranged for Tuon to be kidnapped by Mat that will allow her to rally the Seanchan from the type of attack that you advocate.  Just like the pattern has arranged the first BA hunt in Tower history right before they would be their very deadliest.   

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

If Halima started killing people, it would happen like this:

 

Someone dies.

 

Aes Sedai find out, examine the body to determine cause of death, and decide it was a channeler.

 

Aes Sedai become extra careful and wary, perhaps to the point of rooting out the Black Ajah within them.

 

Second person dies.

 

Aes Sedai begin to set up wards to immediately immobilize anyone who channels in a restricted area (such as the sleeping area).

 

So after two people die, the Aes Sedai have united like never before, and Halima can't kill anyone else.

 

Not so good of a plan after all...

[Cybertrolloc]

In that case we have an example in Careane. She offs a couple of channelers, making it blatantly obvious towards the end too.

 

RAW, I think you took things in an indefensible direction... Sure the shadow should/could have offed/co-opted everyone in a leadership position in the early books once the Forsaken were free. Presumably the Forsaken knew the things they know now, then...or at least insofar as RJ knew them at the time of writing those books ;)

 

The reasons they did not aren't horrible as fantasy conventions go: the Pattern provides to some extent, new heroes would arise to take up the swords of the dead or improbably things would happen to save some of your targets (or incite more infighting among the Shadow). The Shadow needs some thing(s) to happen we're not entirely sure of yet...i.e. the Shadow can "win" all its battles without accomplishing their ultimate goal of freeing the DO and I think it's pretty clear that won't happen in a wasteland. Hopefully we find out what these plans are and hopefully we don't throw our books against the wall in disgust.

 

So I'm here holding my "Save the Thread" sign ;) Unfortunately I forget in which direction I wanted to steer this mess.