How many Book fans are there really?

[TheDreadReader]

38 minutes ago, Jaysen Gore said:

I would politely disagree.  I think the negative vocal online communities is way smaller than people think, and are the most rabid of the fan base.  A quick review of site stats and Youtube channel subscriptions make me think there are fewer than 20,000 WoT fans who care enough to participate in the online communities. And they are the ones most likely to display what I think of as "The Black Album" syndrome, where changes made by an artist enrage diehard fans who want the series to stay their own little private thing, instead of gaining mass appeal. Apostasy infuriates them, and every little nitpick or change is a reason for torches and pitchforks.

 

And for the record, the Entertainment Industrial complex is well aware of that behaviourial pattern, which is why they are justified most of the time in not caring what we think, in the grand scheme of things; we're not even big enough to be a rounding error.

 

 

Probably, good to remember the pareto principle here.  80% of outcomes come from 20% of participants.  It can be a useful rule of thumb.

 

 

[Apoc81]

1 hour ago, Jaysen Gore said:

My take on this discussion:

80 million books sold divided by 15 books works out to about 5.3 million / book.  Probably higher for the first 3, and lower for the last 3, and maybe 250,000 library copies. So call it 5 million people bought the series. And if you don't own the series, I can't call you a fan. If you spent $150 on a book series you're a fan;  $500 for hardcovers and you're a serious fan. And my assumption is if you're a fan, you're going to at least check out the series if you can.  A better measure for fandom would be sales of A Memory of Light, but I can't find that.

 

Next, we come to the viewership, which isn't public information. 

- Approximately 350 million Amazon Prime subscribers, with 150 million in the US (99 stats). This is great, because the global numbers are comparable to the full US population. 

- the most watched non-sports broadcast show in 2021 in the US was NCIS at about 12 million (Nielson). If WoT was beating this, they'd be screaming it from the mountain tops.  So it's not as high as 12 million

- Screenrants claims "tens of millions of views" in the first 3 days of the series. So take 30 million divide it by 3 episodes, and you get 10 million per episode as an upper number. 

 

BUT...Let's say 10% of book fans watch the episodes twice on average, and another 60% watch it once, with the last 30% not having Prime. That's 10% x 2 x 5 million + 60% x 1 x 5 million = 1 million + 3 million = 4 million total views from book readers. 

 

The final calculation = 4 million views from book readers / 10 million total views

= 40% of the audience are existing book fans. 

 

This assumes that non-book readers aren't doing multiple viewings in material numbers, and that Prime has a higher penetration rate with WoT readers than the general public due to demographics. And while it's possible both the numerator and denominator in the above calculations can move up or down due to assumptions, I think they would mostly move in the same direction leaving the percentage of the audience roughly the same. It's definitely more than a third, and definitely less than a half, though.

 

So what does this mean? Basically, as long as the series doesn't piss off the book readers enough that they stop watching, that will give Amazon a solid foundation to grow from, with a lot of potential upside. But for now, they're way more dependent on the readers than you'd think.

 

You're literally just making up numbers and claiming the math works. It doesn't work like 0that.

Also, stats for other series show that you're wrong. That 90m is front heavy. There are millions upon millions more copies of EotW than there is any other book in the series. I worked for a book publisher throughout both university and law school, I know how this goes. For every Memory of Light sold, Eye of the World has likely sold 20. And that's completely normal.

We're likely to see a big increase in sales again now with the show. 

Edited December 12, 2021 by Apoc81

[Sabio]

On 11/19/2021 at 8:53 AM, jeffreycwagner said:

The hope is we are 5% of the total audience, but I would guess right now we are well over 50%, and the balance have been dragged into this by the 50%.

It was pretty easy to guess Rand was the Dragon.  Alot of the POV was centered on Rand, the fever dream, and Rand trvaeling to town is the first scene after the prologue.

Edited December 12, 2021 by Sabio

[Jaysen Gore]

5 minutes ago, Apoc81 said:

You're literally just making up numbers and claiming the math works. It doesn't work like 0that.

Also, stats for other series show that your wrong. That 90m is front heavy. There are millions upon millions more copies of EotW than there is any other book in the series. I worked for a book publisher throughout both university and law school, I know how this goes. For every Memory of Light sold, Eye of the World has likely sold 20. And that's completely normal.

We're likely to see a big increase in sales again now with the show. 

I am speculating based on available numbers (I was going to footnote sources, but thought nah)  since Amazon doesn't publish their streaming numbers, nor Tor their sales. I would be curious where you're getting book specific sales for fantasy series, though, since I haven't seen any specific breakdowns for most series. But let's assume you're right, and there's an exponential drop off across the first 3 books:

 

EOTW almost 10 million (it's not on the 10 million list of individual books sold, and other series' books are if they have) List of best-selling books - Wikipedia

TGH sells 5 million

TDR sells 2.5 million

That still leaves 62.5 million sold across the remaining 12, or 5.2 million sold per book.

 

But say Wikipedia's wrong (shocking, I know), and 20 million copies of EOTW have been sold - and looking at the books that HAVE sold 20+ million, EOTW was never one of those those - with 10 million of tGH, and 5 million of TDR. accounting for 35 million of the total 80 million sales. That's still an average 3.75 million copies sold for each of the next 12.

 

If I look at the two fantasy series that were big enough to have individual books on the Wiki list above, only about 1/2 the people that bought Philosopher's Stone bought Chamber of Secrets, and only 90% of people that bought Chamber bought Prisoner. BUT... Prisoner numbers, Hallows numbers, and everything in between are the same 65 million. 0 drop off from book 3 onward. There was a 50% drop off from Hunger Games to Catching Fire, but 95% of people who read CF read Mockingjay. So once fantasy readers get past the second book, they're mostly along until the end.

 

If I use the Potter percentages, and the 80 million sales number:

12 million bought EOTW, 6 bought tGH, 4.75 million bought TDR, and finished the series. 12+6+4.75*13 = 79.75 million. Sure we lose some in the slog, but when you're dealing with averages across a dozen books, it's only a couple hundred thousand.

 

We'll never know, since Tor won't release their book by book actual sales numbers, but my assumption is that better than 90% of people who bought the Shadow Rising bought A Memory of Light.  Hence why I'm confident in saying the total number of readers for the Wheel of Time is where it is - between 4.5 and 5 million.

 

You can still say I'm wrong, but please point me to which numbers you're using to back that up.

[JenniferL]

Adam Whitehead has some numbers on his blog, but they are a few years out of date. I’d love to see an update next year. 
 

https://thewertzone.blogspot.com/2018/12/the-sff-all-time-sales-list-revised.html

[Tom alapostropheThor]

On 11/19/2021 at 7:11 AM, Apoc81 said:

Prime video viewership is Massive. The Boys and Expanse both proved that. And most people already have it free with Amazon Prime.

 

I don't know what it will take to make some of you understand that this show is made for someone new to the series. They are not, and never were going to cater to book readers, it is rightfully designed to be watchable by anyone. You are a tiny piece of viewership, they know book readers will watch, its new fans they want. They did not make this show to please book readers.

Well, I'm a book reader who isn't watching. I have been following the synopses because I have a compulsion to torture myself, but I turned it off after the first 15 minutes of episode 1. My 12 year old daughter, who inhaled the series last year, agreed with me. The unnecessary changes were too much for both of us.

 

And Game of Thrones proved that staying faithful to the books was possible and would work with new viewers. I don't know why Rafe Judkins couldn't learn that lesson.

[DaddyFinn]

45 minutes ago, Tom alapostropheThor said:

And Game of Thrones proved that staying faithful to the books was possible and would work with new viewers. I don't know why Rafe Judkins couldn't learn that lesson.

ASoIaF and WoT are two very different book series

[Sabio]

1 hour ago, DaddyFinn said:

ASoIaF and WoT are two very different book series

And as Brandon mentioned, the guy who made GOT had worked in TV and such before.  So it's likely when he wrote GOT he had it becoming a series in mind.  So he could set it up so it would be easier to make into a show.  When WOT was made making it a series never crossed RJ's mind.  So it's a bit messier trying to make it a series,

 

 

 

Anyone who says they don't care about pleasing book readers when they made the series, needs to understand if that was true then they wouldn't have brought Brandon and Harriet on as a producers.  Brandon has given them alot of advice on changes that book readers might not accept or that a certain character was being changed too much etc.  Yes they want new people to watch, but they also know that if they just said screw you to the readers the show wouldn't last either.

[Yojimbo]

10 hours ago, Jaysen Gore said:

 

And for the record, the Entertainment Industrial complex is well aware of that behaviourial pattern, which is why they are justified most of the time in not caring what we think, in the grand scheme of things; we're not even big enough to be a rounding error.

 

You are almost certainly right.  And that makes me sad, because it tells me that they don't give a rat's ass if they make a faithful (not word for word) adaptation, so long as they bring in numbers.   Even Rafe, who supposedly is a big fan of the books, must not give a rat's ass, because...we didn't get a faithful adaptation.   I guess that's fine, really, and I should just give up hope of ever seeing a faithful adaptation on screen.   

[Ralph]

RJ said he knew it couldn't be faithfully adapted, and if he got something like Merlin he'd be happy

[DojoToad]

On 11/19/2021 at 9:57 AM, Apoc81 said:

I mean, I definitely disagree. We are a tiny percentage, the rest will find it the same way they find other streaming shows. 

It's well shot. There are a very few small problems, but anyone hoping it follow every beat and storyline in the book are being ridiculous, and non book readers will not have the same complaints as obsessive fans.

How do you know this?  You make it sound as if people that only know WoT through the show can't be obsessed.  I know plenty of folks that obsess over TV shows that have never read the books (if any books were ever involved at all).  X-Files, Lost, The Office, etc.

[DojoToad]

On 11/19/2021 at 10:16 AM, Apoc81 said:

No, your math doesn't work. Of those six million, at least half don't care, and maybe a tenth are real fans.

I don't know why it's so hard to understand that you are not the target. We are a tiny minority. No, 6 million readers are not rushing to watch this. How many of those 6m even finished the series.

 

Plain and simple, shows like this are made to draw in the casual viewer, not the hardcore fan. And the casual viewer will not have your complaints.

I absolutely agree that book readers are not the target audience - and that we are a minority.

 

But while 'casual' viewers won't have complaints about comparisons to the book - they can have complaints about any number of other things: writing, plot holes, pacing, set design, acting, lighting, or whatever.  Many of which book readers will also have in common.

[Gothic Flame]

5 hours ago, Sabio said:

Anyone who says they don't care about pleasing book readers when they made the series, needs to understand if that was true then they wouldn't have brought Brandon and Harriet on as a producers.

Jim Butcher was initially on board with "Dresden Files," and Terry Brooks with "Shannara Chronicles."

On the other side of the coin, GRRM GoT, and J.K. Rowling Harry Potter. And both authors were fairly involved. 

[Daenelia]

1 hour ago, Ralph said:

RJ said he knew it couldn't be faithfully adapted, and if he got something like Merlin he'd be happy

 I stopped watching Merlin because I thought it was dreadful and childish ? Go figure (And yes: I stopped watching. That might be a novel approach when faced with a series one does not like. And I don't begrudge people who do like Merlin and find something useful and entertaining in it. My dislike is in no way a judgement of other people's experience. ) For me the current tv series of WoT is much better than Merlin.

 

As for other books, like HP: I bought three editions of the first book: a paperback, a paperback with the 'adult' copy (which I then lent to someone and never got back) and a HB copy later on. I now have zero copies on my shelves because I don't keep books I don't intent to re-read. So, am I a fan? No, I am not a Harry Potter fan. (I also had all the books in Dutch, because I actually think the dutch translation is a little better ... weird.)

 

I don't think it is that important how many book fans there are and if they are the audience that needs to be catered to. Love the books, hate the series: it's possible. And the other way around too: there will be fans of the series that will just hate the books. As @DojoToadsaid: book readers and tv viewers can have their own complaints about the books/series. It's independent.

 

And maybe we should keep in mind that a lot of the issues people have, with either medium, is not an absolute given. It is extremely hard to set a standard and have objective measurements of something being good or bad.

 

People tought Rembrandt was bad at lighting and colours. People thought Van Gogh was rubbish because his work was less realisme and leaning towards impressionism. Now some people think differently.

[Scarloc99]

On 11/19/2021 at 3:24 PM, jeffreycwagner said:

As I stated you could be right, but the books sold a total of 90 million, so that is about 6 million per book, so I would guess close to 6 million read all 14 books .  And I stated closer to 50% than 5% and especially right now.  But, yeah you are most likely right.

It is hard to equate this, the best way would be how many people bought Memory of Light. They read the series all the way through. Lots of people stopped reading after book 1, I personally know 6 people who read book 1 and went no further. 
 

The TV series is written to appeal to non book readers. If Rafe had tried to please book readers there would still be as many people angry at what had been changed in order to make it fit and casual viewers would be turned away by the long exposition and info dumps. 

[Gothic Flame]

47 minutes ago, Sir_Charrid said:

The TV series is written to appeal to non book readers. If Rafe had tried to please book readers there would still be as many people angry at what had been changed in order to make it fit and casual viewers would be turned away by the long exposition and info dumps. 

No.

If it wasn't altered to fit book-fans wouldn't have turned away. Book fans are already aware of the little flourishes and braid pulls, etc that fill the books, much of which can be cut. Also book-fans are all too aware of how "experimental" Jordan's writing was in several books which I surmise can easily be condensed into a cohesive whole. (With Sanderson's help.) 

Many Book-fans would and should be rightfully angry at cutting scenes from the books to add pointless time-wasting minutiae that contribute nothing beyond speculation of a producer/director's ego.

Edited December 13, 2021 by Gothic Flame
Spelling

[Daenelia]

16 minutes ago, Gothic Flame said:

No.

If it wasn't altered to fit book-fans wouldn't have turned away. Book fans are already aware of the little flourishes and braid pulls, etc that fill the books, much of which can be cut. Also book-fans are all too aware of how "experimental" Jordan's writing was in several books which I surmise can easily be condensed into a cohesive whole. (With Sanderson's help.) 

Many Book-fans would and should be rightfully angry at cutting scenes from the books to add pointless time-wasting minutiae that contribute nothing beyond speculation of a producer/director's ego.

I am a book fan, have been since 1991 at least (my copy of EotW is dated early 1992, I know I read it before then because I borrowed it before i bought it) and I am not unhappy at all with the tv series and I kinda feel like I am not alone.

 

Mind you: I also think a good part of the book fans are not happy with it, but that is a given. Because you can't please everyone. I am just lucky I like it and am not part of the 'cam't watch it' part of the audience. But I am aware it might have been that way.

 

But I do not think that book fans should be angry at cut scenes from the books. Or to be upset because a scene has been added (not for ego, that is a bit of a weird statement, come on ? ) to smooth over a time jump or have some needed exposition without being overwhelming.

 

I dont think anyone is waiting for a whole 50 minutes of Tam and Rand traveling to the village, while filling in the world building en route. That would just be boring to watch ...

 

(and that's coming from someone who adores the travel series of Charlie Boorman and Ewan McGregor, where admittedly I am happy to watch them on the road for 50 minutes. But that's different, right?)

[Gothic Flame]

8 hours ago, Daenelia said:

I am a book fan, have been since 1991 at least (my copy of EotW is dated early 1992, I know I read it before then because I borrowed it before i bought it) and I am not unhappy at all with the tv series and I kinda feel like I am not alone.

That doesn't detract from my first assertion; If it wasn't altered to fit, book-fans wouldn't have turned away. 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Gothic Flame

[EmreY]

Perhaps part of the problem is that this series is a fairly serious financial gamble, and so they managed to eke out only 8 episodes?  

 

And, as a fairly casual reader, I gave up at Book 11 and didn't get the remainder until I heard about the TV series.  I'm nowhere near as much of a fan as some more serious types seem to be, and I'm very happy with the series.  My main worry is that as the series continues and evver more people and points of view are excised completely many more people will be turned off, though I probably won't.

 

But I understand people's concerns, as other book-to-screen changes have made me angry.

[Daenelia]

5 hours ago, Gothic Flame said:

That doesn't detract from my first assertion; If it wasn't altered to fit book-fans wouldn't have turned away. 

I am having trouble with that sentence, probably due to a missing comma.

 

If it was not altered to fit book-fans, [book-fans] would not have turned away? Is that your assertion?

 

Or: If it wasn't altered, book-fans would not have turned away?

 

Or: if it was not altered to fit the books (i.e. if it had been one on one with book events/timeline) then book-fans would not have turned away?

[TheDreadReader]

5 hours ago, Gothic Flame said:

That doesn't detract from my first assertion; If it wasn't altered to fit book-fans wouldn't have turned away. 

 

I would say that book fans haven't turned away just a subset of book fans have turned away which is expected at this point whenever an adaptation is made.

 

And, I say this as a GRRM book fan who turned away from HBO's GOT because I thought they dumbed it down too much.

 

[Spiritweaver1]

Hmm here are my thoughts here.  I believe the effort on both sides (book and show) is aimed with two purposes.  The primary purpose should be to tell a story that the audience can lose themselves in.  The secondary purpose should  to make money.  I am not sure but what the show priorities are reversed.  As a book fan the book absolutely lets me get lost in it. I just completed TFOH.  This reading has been different than all my other passes through the material.  I find myself wondering what will be retained and how it will be presented in the  show if it does make the cut.     The material still moves me as it always does.  However the wondering creates a distraction that didn't exist before.  One thing that has changed due to all the discussion on this forum is a renewed appreciation for parts of the story that clearly are part of the slog.   Frankly RJ was a genius story teller and sadly for me Rafe and his elves are merely adequate thus far.  

 

I would be very interested to hear from any readers who have experienced both the written version of fantasy and an audio version.  Is there an audio version of all the WOT books?  Anybody sampled it.  I can imaging lying in bed in a semi-dream state with the story in my ears.  With my eyes closed the imagination would have full reign. 

[Elder_Haman]

Just now, Spiritweaver1 said:

Is there an audio version of all the WOT books?

Yes. There is an excellent audio version of the series narrated by Michael Kramer and Kate Reading. Rosamund Pike also recorded an audio version of EotW, though I have not listened and can't provide you with an opinion on it's quality.

[Jaysen Gore]

48 minutes ago, Spiritweaver1 said:

Hmm here are my thoughts here.  I believe the effort on both sides (book and show) is aimed with two purposes.  The primary purpose should be to tell a story that the audience can lose themselves in.  The secondary purpose should  to make money.  I am not sure but what the show priorities are reversed.  As a book fan the book absolutely lets me get lost in it. I just completed TFOH.  This reading has been different than all my other passes through the material.  I find myself wondering what will be retained and how it will be presented in the  show if it does make the cut.     The material still moves me as it always does.  However the wondering creates a distraction that didn't exist before.  One thing that has changed due to all the discussion on this forum is a renewed appreciation for parts of the story that clearly are part of the slog.   Frankly RJ was a genius story teller and sadly for me Rafe and his elves are merely adequate thus far.  

 

I would be very interested to hear from any readers who have experienced both the written version of fantasy and an audio version.  Is there an audio version of all the WOT books?  Anybody sampled it.  I can imaging lying in bed in a semi-dream state with the story in my ears.  With my eyes closed the imagination would have full reign. 

No comments on the audio book questions for you, but on the initial paragraph:

 

The first goal of any artist is to create art that people can get lost in. This is true from the person practicing guitar in their basement, to people plugging away on a story for 10 years after work, even if the only person getting lost is themselves, to Rafe Judkins or Steven Spielberg. For a rare few, they hope to touch enough people to do it for a living, thereby moving from amateur to professional. And for even fewer, someone with money comes along and lets them do just that.

 

However, artists, if they are commercial at all, have ALWAYS worked for someone who's primary concern is to generate value, and the artist's concern shifts to pleasing that person. They all may love the art, but love isn't enough. Cachet, gallery sales, political influence, ticket sales, ad revenue, streaming fees; the type of value has changed, but there is always a financial aspect to any art that moves beyond the artists' hands. That brings constraints, and for most, creative inputs and direction. Even the Sistine Chapel was work for hire, and subject to budgetary oversight and creative input. 

 

I am not judging the creative team of WoT yet, because I see what they're trying to do, and understand why - even if I don't necessarily agree - and certainly miss some things they've changed. It's like they've used a different opening gambit in chess. All the pieces are the same, and they can easily end up making most of the same moves to get to the same place and win the game. Maybe in a more elegant fashion, maybe worse. And with a range of differences between the first game and the second. But this is still only their opening gambit, not even the mid-game. And none of the moves they've made so far have taken pieces off the board; no changes made so big they can't be undone. So I will keep watching, hoping for a more elegant game, but as long as they don't sacrifice the wrong pieces I will be along for the ride  

[Gothic Flame]

2 hours ago, Daenelia said:

I am having trouble with that sentence, probably due to a missing comma.

 

If it was not altered to fit book-fans, [book-fans] would not have turned away? Is that your assertion?

 

Or: If it wasn't altered, book-fans would not have turned away?

 

Or: if it was not altered to fit the books (i.e. if it had been one on one with book events/timeline) then book-fans would not have turned away?

O...poo

Sorry edited to say;

 

If it wasn't altered to fit, book-fans wouldn't have turned away. 

 

hm..in hindsight it might been just as well to say if there no alterations beyond cutting the too many flourishes and such...we already know that even several books can be consolidated.