'Tell the Dragon Reborn...'

[Terez]

Someone pointed out to me on Twitter that this mystery has been kind of left hanging for a long time, and I realized that I hadn't really put any thought into it recently. Certainly I don't recall any particularly convincing theories. But as I thought about it, I realized there are actually three instances at least in LOC that might be seen as attempts to turn Rand against the Aiel, though they were all unsuccessful:

 

1. In LOC 22, 'Heading South', Vanin discovers the Tinker caravan. Someone with knowledge of the Aiel feeling toward Tinkers might have set this up in Mat's path deliberately, thinking he would blame the Aiel because he knows of their prejudice and because there are many bands of Aiel heading south with the Band (but separately, since they move faster). In case Mat wasn't inclined to believe that...

 

2. In the same chapter, Aiel attempt to kill Mat in his sleep. Unfortunately for them, he wasn't in his tent. They were transported there by gateway. This was most likely not a simple assassination attempt, because it was doomed to fail (more because of Mat's ta'verenness than anything else). More likely, it was an attempt to turn Rand against the Aiel, with the unlikely possibility of a bonus should the Aiel succeed.

 

3. In LOC 46, Demira Eriff is attacked by fake Aiel (she notes their dark eyes, and they call her a 'witch'). This could be a dual attempt to turn Rand against the Aiel, and to turn the Aes Sedai against Rand.

 

I've always argued that the third incident was set up by Fain because we know he has a few Whitecloaks still at his disposal, and the motives fit. I think Luckers has argued it was Taim, which seems to be a pretty popular theory. But if we were to assume that all three incidents were connected, then the most likely suspect seems to be Sammael. He knows enough of the 'modern' Aiel, probably, to have thought up the first incident - we know he met with Sevanna before Dumai's Wells, at least. Rand's huge, massive army of mostly Aiel was pointed in his direction, and the alliance that was supposed to protect him had fallen apart with Lanfear's disappearance and Rahvin's death, leaving only Graendal for an ally. Technically, there's no reason to assume that the third incident is connected to the first two, but it's certainly possible, even likely.

 

I guess the main point of bringing this up is that I tend to doubt there is some great as-yet-unrevealed mystery concerning the Tinkers in this case. It may be that the Tinker who wrote the message wanted Rand to know that the Aiel weren't playing nice, and it may also be that the Tinker didn't write the message at all, and that it was just staged to look that way by the killers. Whether or not the third incident is connected, it seems highly likely that the first two were connected, and I think Sammael has the best motive.

[ironisles]

Interesting theory! I hadn't thought about Sammy being the one setting things up like that.

[Lacanos]

What would Sammael's motive be then? You say he has the best one, but it's unclear to me what this is.

[Terez]

What would Sammael's motive be then? You say he has the best one, but it's unclear to me what this is.

Rand's huge army of Aiel was on its way to attack him, so he had the best motive to turn Rand against the Aiel.

[Durinax]

What would Sammael's motive be then? You say he has the best one, but it's unclear to me what this is.

Rand's huge army of Aiel was on its way to attack him, so he had the best motive to turn Rand against the Aiel.

Terez this is where you are wrong. I think his plan was to turn mat against the Aiel, especially since he must have an idea of how good of a general mat is. that is much more sinister

[Swithin]

To prevent or slow Rand's potential plans to use the Aiel as an invasion force into Illian is what it sounds like to me, with the added benefit that a lack of Aiel unity around the Car'a'carn might lead to a greater conflict between the Shaido/Brotherless and the mainstream clans in the Wetlands, dragging in Cairhien and possibly other nations.

 

Very nifty write up, Terez.

[Swithin]

Terez this is where you are wrong. I think his plan was to turn mat against the Aiel, especially since he must have an idea of how good of a general mat is. that is much more sinister

 

Mat wasn't really a well-known general by LoC, was he? He'd had one incredibly successful battle, but wasn't that pretty much it? Unless Sammael was getting his information from very close to the source, he seems like the type to hear "this young upstart decapitated the enemy leader! Oh, and he marshalled a bunch of troops from the brink of death," and think "stupid ta'veren walks into a spot to kill the enemy commander and is being trumped up as a Light-blasted hero. These puppies have no idea what a real general is like!"

[Terez]

Mat wasn't really a well-known general by LoC, was he? He'd had one incredibly successful battle, but wasn't that pretty much it? Unless Sammael was getting his information from very close to the source, he seems like the type to hear "this young upstart decapitated the enemy leader! Oh, and he marshalled a bunch of troops from the brink of death," and think "stupid ta'veren walks into a spot to kill the enemy commander and is being trumped up as a Light-blasted hero. These puppies have no idea what a real general is like!"

My thoughts exactly. Word might have gotten to Sammael about Mat's exploits at the Battle of Cairhien and with the White Lions, but no doubt Sammael wrote it off as luck (heh) and Rand giving promotions to his friends instead of to those who deserve them!

[Durinax]

Mat wasn't really a well-known general by LoC, was he? He'd had one incredibly successful battle, but wasn't that pretty much it? Unless Sammael was getting his information from very close to the source, he seems like the type to hear "this young upstart decapitated the enemy leader! Oh, and he marshalled a bunch of troops from the brink of death," and think "stupid ta'veren walks into a spot to kill the enemy commander and is being trumped up as a Light-blasted hero. These puppies have no idea what a real general is like!"

My thoughts exactly. Word might have gotten to Sammael about Mat's exploits at the Battle of Cairhien and with the White Lions, but no doubt Sammael wrote it off as luck (heh) and Rand giving promotions to his friends instead of to those who deserve them!

I would argue that if he heard mat took a ragtag group of soldiers he found in the field, and managed to change them into an actual force that survived (and won) encounters with multiple groups of regular forces including one that was sent there by another forsaken, he may have gotten the hint that they would be fun to play wtih. not to mention that he knows that mat and his forces have faced aiel before and could potentially be a great force to face off against more aiel.

 

not too mention that turning the Dragons good friend against the Dragon could result in untold amounts of chaos and fun events for him to watch

[Hael Me]

Yes, this sounds plausible. I'm with you. 2/3 of the way...

 

The attack against Demira Sedai, I agree that real Aiel weren't the perpetrators. The dark eyes and the use of the word "witches" contradicts that. I've always thought that Taim was behind the attack - he hates having Aes Sedai in Caemlyn at this point and one of his most trusted men, Gedwyn, uses the word "witches" in a similar fashion in tPoD, when Eagan Padros has failed to assassinate Rand and Gedwyn wants to blame the Aes Sedai and send Padros corpse to the witches, in an obvious attempt to clear himself and sow chaos at the same time.

 

But I don't know. When I think about this nowadays, I think that Mesaana is the most likely instigator. What happens after the attack? A confrontation between Rand and the embassy from Salidar, which leads to Rand Travelling from Caemlyn, to the Sun Palace, where the embassy from Elaida is waiting and thus the kidnappers, black sisters sent by Mesaana...

[Hybrid]

In my opinion, the third incident is definitely not connected with the other two. It's probably part of the plot to drive a wedge between Rand and the Aes Sedai. I see the motivation as twofold:

 

1) To set up the kidnapping by the Tower Aes Sedai

 

2) To prevent Rand from allying with the Salidar Aes Sedai when the Tower kidnapping fails

 

So I'm with Luckers on incident number 3.

[Wantanswers]

Nice thread, Terez.

I like the idea of combining this three events, although it is possible they have nothing to do with each other, but it is reasonable.

I have considered all the options you gave and none of them has ever convinced me. I didn't reject them, I just wasn't convinced, because one question I have about the "black-eyed Aiel" wasn't answered.

 

Why was Demira convinced those attackers were Aiel. I don't believe if a man, disguising himself by wearing a cadinsor, could fool an Aes Sedai. I even doubt such a man could fool anybody else. An Aiel is an Aiel, whatever clothes he/she is wearing. (Think of the meeting of Elayne, Birgitte and Aviendha with the Borderlanders)

 

After reading AMOL, I wondered:

Could those "Black-eyed Aiel" have been "Red-veiled Aiel".

 

It don't give an answer, even if I am right. It raises more questions.

Are they Aiel, or more specific, have they been Aiel?

Darkhounds are created with the twisted souls of wolves, but they don't have golden eyes.

Could the "Red-veiled Aiel" have been created with the twisted souls of Aiel?

 

An other question that raises:

Who ordered them?

 

I couldn't find any more clues about this option, so I am still sceptical myself. Nevertheless I think it is an option to be considered.

 

Thoughts?

[Terez]

After reading AMOL, I wondered:

Could those "Black-eyed Aiel" have been "Red-veiled Aiel".

I considered that too, but no red veils, no sharpened teeth, and a different demeanor altogether.

[hazelkrs1]

After reading AMOL, I wondered:

Could those "Black-eyed Aiel" have been "Red-veiled Aiel".

I considered that too, but no red veils, no sharpened teeth, and a different demeanor altogether.

 

Just throwing this out there as a possibility, but is it possible that RJ hadn't quite figured out how to describe the "Dark Aiel" and the dark eyed Aiel we're a rough draft, kinda like the Shadar Haran wannabe early in the series?

[Terez]

Possible, but unlikely IMO. If it were something mentioned more than once, maybe...

[Wantanswers]

After reading AMOL, I wondered:

Could those "Black-eyed Aiel" have been "Red-veiled Aiel".

I considered that too, but no red veils, no sharpened teeth, and a different demeanor altogether.

Rereading that scene I noticed that Demira didn't pay much attention to them before it was too late. Besides, a veil can be changed. On first sight Demira saw they were Aiel, so their demeanor must have been as of an Aiel. I don't believe she was mistaken by that.

[Luckers]

After reading AMOL, I wondered:

Could those "Black-eyed Aiel" have been "Red-veiled Aiel".

I considered that too, but no red veils, no sharpened teeth, and a different demeanor altogether.

Rereading that scene I noticed that Demira didn't pay much attention to them before it was too late. Besides, a veil can be changed. On first sight Demira saw they were Aiel, so their demeanor must have been as of an Aiel. I don't believe she was mistaken by that.

 

 

Their demeanour was nothing like that of the Aiel. She judged them solely on their clothing.

[Wantanswers]

After reading AMOL, I wondered:

Could those "Black-eyed Aiel" have been "Red-veiled Aiel".

I considered that too, but no red veils, no sharpened teeth, and a different demeanor altogether.

Rereading that scene I noticed that Demira didn't pay much attention to them before it was too late. Besides, a veil can be changed. On first sight Demira saw they were Aiel, so their demeanor must have been as of an Aiel. I don't believe she was mistaken by that.

 

 

Their demeanour was nothing like that of the Aiel. She judged them solely on their clothing.

What makes you think their demeanor was nothing like that of the Aiel. What makes you think she judged them solely on their clothes. She has seen a lot of Aiel in Caemlyn and she has paid a lot of attention to them. She even wanted to learn more about them. That was the reason she didn't want to confront Rand with the attack. Obviously she has studied them already, as far as she could. A cadinsor doesn't make one an Aiel. I cannot believe Demira would be fooled by that; specially not because she is of the Brown Ajah.

[Luckers]

What makes you think their demeanor was nothing like that of the Aiel.

 

The description of them in the text; they act villinous--which even the likes of Couladin never did--and refer to Rand as the Dragon, and to the Aes Sedai as witches.

 

What makes you think she judged them solely on their clothes. She has seen a lot of Aiel in Caemlyn and she has paid a lot of attention to them. She even wanted to learn more about them. That was the reason she didn't want to confront Rand with the attack. Obviously she has studied them already, as far as she could. A cadinsor doesn't make one an Aiel. I cannot believe Demira would be fooled by that; specially not because she is of the Brown Ajah.

 

They behave nothing like Aiel, and they look nothing like Aiel, yet this never crosses her mind in the slightest, ergo she must have judged them based singularily on their clothes. Its not unreasonable, given she was busy getting stabbed at the time and therefore wasn't in the best position for objective analysis, though that being said I believe you over-stress the degree to which Demira would have been able to recognise Aiel traits, even with her inclination to study them.