[Basic]: Friends Mafia

[Eldrick4221]

I did like your analysis though, sooh, so that's something.

[Eldrick4221]

Why is wolf Hally unlikely to you?

 

I agree that Hally w/lily v doesn't make sense.

[Eldrick4221]

I am noticing that a lot of what you said in your analysis has already been said.

[Eldrick4221]

Not lynching today: Shad, lily, hally

WTL: Sooh, Tab, Turin

 

Not scum reading anyone atp, but if Hally is cop, I believe both wolves are in my WTL.

[Eldrick4221]

Tinfoil on turin. He's scum. There is a gf on his team, so he knows there's a cop. He's been promoting the idea that there isn't a cop to make us not believe the claim when it happened.

[Eldrick4221]

Iirc Turin is the only one with the idea that there isn't a cop in this game.

[Eldrick4221]

Why would he be so adamant on making us think that?

[Eldrick4221]

Btw I want to see good reasons for votes. With no clear scum, and only 2 townies needed for a mislynch, this is important.

[Eldrick4221]

Just finished my taxes. I'm getting $700 :D

[Taborline]

If Hallia w Lily v: claiming prevents possible Lily mislynch, outs Hallia if there is a real cop or when Hallia never gets NK'd.  Completely pointless gamble.

 

if Hallia v Lily w: means Lily is GF.  Possible I guess.  I don't know how likely a GF is here and I suck at predicting set-ups.

 

If Hallia w Lily w:

if one of them is GF: they know there's a real cop.  Why sacrifice one of your players to draw out the cop when you have a much higher success rate by letting the cop live and hoping he peeks your GF?  It's a dim possibility, if Lily is GF, in order to prevent her lynch today, but then scum fake claims when her lynch is probable, not at the start of the phase.  So I don't think this scenario makes sense.

if they are both goons: could be a gamble in the hopes that there is no actual cop.  Maybe? a risk worth taking with both of them low in the POE.  But a Lily goon flip confirms Hallia scum, so even if we believe the claim but lynch Lily for fear of a GF, they lose.  Or there could be a real cop, in which case Hallia is outed and Lily still potentially peeked or lynched for POE.  Not a crazy gamble but still unlikely.

 

So with all that in mind, not lynching Hallia today without a convincing counterclaim.  Lily still a possibility, but the simple fact of the uncountered claim makes it less probable.

 

This was a really useful post for me, Shad, thank you. I forget about the GF aspect.

[Sooh]

Why is wolf Hally unlikely to you?

 

I agree that Hally w/lily v doesn't make sense.

For that simple reason. Plus it's always very high risk to claim cop with an innocent view on your partner. I mean, I suppose it COULD happen, but that would be so WIFOM-y that I just don't see it.

 

For her play alone I can see her as wolf.

[Sooh]

I am noticing that a lot of what you said in your analysis has already been said.

Well, how many ways can you think about this? I happen to agree with the logic of several of those who have posted before me. If all of my play this game had been coughing up what others have already said I understand that this is a problem, but I don't think that I have been. Feel free to disagree though.

[Sooh]

 

I am noticing that a lot of what you said in your analysis has already been said.

Well, how many ways can you think about this? I happen to agree with the logic of several of those who have posted before me. If all of my play this game had been coughing up what others have already said I understand that this is a problem, but I don't think that I have been. Feel free to disagree though.

 

Actually you know what? I don't really like this way of attempting to discredit me.

[LilyElizabeth]

Not lynching today: Shad, lily, hally

WTL: Sooh, Tab, Turin

 

Not scum reading anyone atp, but if Hally is cop, I believe both wolves are in my WTL.

That's a nice breakdown. I wish I was  as sure of Shad as you are. 

[LilyElizabeth]

I'm leaning toward voting Turin, but it's mostly a gut read, followed by the fact that he's been at the bottom of my "townie" list for a while, and isn't moving up. But I won't vote a man on his wedding day. 

 

Congratulations again, Turin and Ithi. 

[Niniel]

 

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT

 

 

 

Not voting: Lily, Hallia, Sooh, Turin, Tab, Eld, Shad

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

 

Deadline is Saturday 9 PM CET.

 

Countdown

 

 

 

[Eldrick4221]

 

 

I am noticing that a lot of what you said in your analysis has already been said.

Well, how many ways can you think about this? I happen to agree with the logic of several of those who have posted before me. If all of my play this game had been coughing up what others have already said I understand that this is a problem, but I don't think that I have been. Feel free to disagree though.

Actually you know what? I don't really like this way of attempting to discredit me.

Not trying to discredit you. You're right that it isn't the only thing you've done this game. I was just making an observation. I also talked about the part of it that wasn't what we already discussed. I didn't just write it off as "repeating what others have said"

[Eldrick4221]

I'm leaning toward voting Turin, but it's mostly a gut read, followed by the fact that he's been at the bottom of my "townie" list for a while, and isn't moving up. But I won't vote a man on his wedding day.

 

Congratulations again, Turin and Ithi.

I am also leaning Turin. It's partly because of my tinfoil, and he's in my wtl. If I'm right about shad, and hally is telling the truth, it's a 50/50 shot for turin to be scum. I think the tinfoil is a good enough reason.

 

It's unlikely that Hally is scum. Just because I didn't like her game doesn't mean she's scum. Both scenarios of scum!Hally viewing lily town don't make sense.

[Eldrick4221]

[v]Turin [/v]

 

I'm ready to get this started.

I'm not sure who his teammate would be between Tab and Sooh, but I'm leaning Tab.

[Sooh]

 

 

 

I am noticing that a lot of what you said in your analysis has already been said.

Well, how many ways can you think about this? I happen to agree with the logic of several of those who have posted before me. If all of my play this game had been coughing up what others have already said I understand that this is a problem, but I don't think that I have been. Feel free to disagree though.

Actually you know what? I don't really like this way of attempting to discredit me.

Not trying to discredit you. You're right that it isn't the only thing you've done this game. I was just making an observation. I also talked about the part of it that wasn't what we already discussed. I didn't just write it off as "repeating what others have said"

 

Then why note it at all if not to discredit? It sounds like you're trying to make out that I haven't done anything noteworthy, and while that might be true this round I feel like it's certainly not so for the rest of the game. 

[Eldrick4221]

The biggest thing that is making me question Tab being scum is her reads list was exactly the same as mine. Different reasons but same placement, swapping each other ofc. I don't see scum copying my reads list. Town doing it means we agree on where the game is going.

[Eldrick4221]

 

 

 

 

I am noticing that a lot of what you said in your analysis has already been said.

Well, how many ways can you think about this? I happen to agree with the logic of several of those who have posted before me. If all of my play this game had been coughing up what others have already said I understand that this is a problem, but I don't think that I have been. Feel free to disagree though.

Actually you know what? I don't really like this way of attempting to discredit me.

Not trying to discredit you. You're right that it isn't the only thing you've done this game. I was just making an observation. I also talked about the part of it that wasn't what we already discussed. I didn't just write it off as "repeating what others have said"

Then why note it at all if not to discredit? It sounds like you're trying to make out that I haven't done anything noteworthy, and while that might be true this round I feel like it's certainly not so for the rest of the game.

You tunneled on me. Then you took a step back and made a few observations on other people. I would describe your game as a whole as "not noteworthy".

 

But that's my opinion of your game, and why I don't have you as town. You haven't proved to me that you are.

[Hallia]

Pardon for the limited time, I inherited nieces for what may be forever, so we have been talking about it after work and here in the office. I will be posting after 8pm let tonight. Thank gosh for Sat deadline

[Eldrick4221]

That being said, you usually don't make it to my towns. I have trouble moving you to town in every game we play together. I am horrible at reading you, and you usually sit in my nulls.

[Taborline]

I admit I am really having a difficult time committing to a vote on anyone. I agree with others that voting Hally at this point would be too risky, which in turn means Lily is out of the question for now too.

 

Which leaves me still teetering between Shad and Eldrick.

 

I've tried to make a post about this four or five times today, but I'm not coming up with anything new to say since my last one.