[Advanced] Nightmare Before Christmas - Town Wins!

[Shad_]

95% sure on the dark greens.

What has you feeling so great about my slot?

[Zander?]

 

But Pizza, but stating the plan/idea, cant scum just let him live if he gets peeked innocent and actually is town? They guarantee a late game mislynch at that point dont they?

Yeah, if they want to make such a gamble.

 

The interim is the problem. Then Nolder the scanned innocent has a free hand to attack.

 

I've seen Nolder be a townie in that game where he was actually behaving like one.

 

I want that Nolder in this game. If they think they can win the game by deliberately letting a scanned town Nolder survive to endgame, by all means, try that.

 

Far better is simply killing the scanned.

 

 

 

I think there's too many variables for me to feel comfortable with this.  Like leaving a possible scum alive and possibly mislynching another townie for starters.  If the Seer out themselves to prove it then that sucks especially if the Scum team can't or haven't identified the Seer.  Im not the best on trying to figure and plan out these type of situations though.  It's just how I feel

[Zander?]

I'm really going to bed now.

 

Peace out Earthlings.

 

Night brother!!!!!

[Askthepizzaguy]

Yeah.

 

It basically means they have to avoid the attention of a player they know is confirmed town and it gives them a slimmer pool of potential mislynches each subsequent phase because theoretically Nolder, if peeked innocent, shouldn't be lynched until an F3 type scenario.

You got it.

 

Like I said, lynching scum-Nolder right here, right now, no buts, is the best move for town if he is scum. Certainly better than my suggestion.

 

But, my suggestion is strong no matter what he is. I don't want to lynch a townie even if he's not acting like one. I just have no idea how to read Nolder townie given his opening and his play since then.

 

A wasted investigation is less bad than a wasted lynch. A scan result being missed because the guy we were going to lynch got murdered instead is far, far less bad than all of day one being used to lynch a townie.

 

In spite of my suggestion, I hate detectives, and I'd rather use detectives to avoid bad lynches and force town into a better position by making previously palatable mislynches now forced-murders.

 

The lynch is far, far more valuable than the detective itself. I'd rather use the scan threat to improve town's position.

 

If we can resolve Nolder one way or the other, I'd be comfortable lynching Taborline.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think there's too many variables for me to feel comfortable with this.  Like leaving a possible scum alive and possibly mislynching another townie for starters.  If the Seer out themselves to prove it then that sucks especially if the Scum team can't or haven't identified the Seer.  Im not the best on trying to figure and plan out these type of situations though.  It's just how I feel

Take a risk, live a little. I'll help you lynch Tabor.

 

And PS- the seer doesn't have to out themselves with the information on D2. They can simply know that he's town or scum, breadcrumb it subtly.

 

And if several townies breadcrumb the different results, mafia won't know where to hit.

 

Forces them to hunt for crumbs which might not even be there, because the seer can also not leave crumbs.

[Shad_]

Look back and see for yourself brother.  i feel its pretty much common sense.  But look at my WHOLE case first and tell me if you feel the same way.    Like do you think my case resembles how i tried to push Yates in Diablo for example?

I was thinking more your push on Hallia in Matrix.

 

But I would test Tab's slot over yours without hesitation as things stand.

 

I'm not really bothered by anything she's done in this game yet though, just by the lack of much content to go on, and that's a problem that takes more than one phase to seriously concern me.  Suffice to say I wouldn't be fake peeking her this go around.

[Zander?]

 

Look back and see for yourself brother.  i feel its pretty much common sense.  But look at my WHOLE case first and tell me if you feel the same way.    Like do you think my case resembles how i tried to push Yates in Diablo for example?

I was thinking more your push on Hallia in Matrix.

 

But I would test Tab's slot over yours without hesitation as things stand.

 

I'm not really bothered by anything she's done in this game yet though, just by the lack of much content to go on, and that's a problem that takes more than one phase to seriously concern me.  Suffice to say I wouldn't be fake peeking her this go around.

 

 

 

How can you EVEN COMPARE the push on Hallia, I love Hallia but man some of her votes and responses were straight up scummy.  Like I dont feel its even on the same realm of possibility.  Hallia looked bad and I jumped all over it.  My case on Tab isnt really based that much on her just looking bad but Meta and weak reasoning as well.  And did you finish the ENTIRE case or still off of just that part?

[Askthepizzaguy]

If playing off the seer and fakepeek strategies are too fancy for this group, I'm fine just hacking my top suspects to bits.

 

It's up to the team.

 

Anyway, I'm going to keep looking at the leans list / re-read stuff. This popped into my head and I wanted it thought about and discussed.

[Shad_]

I think you really should have read some of my previous games....maybe I'll let Len respond to that.....

 

So youre willing to trust your top scum reads case on Tab because you don't think I'd bus someone??!!!  That;s the only reason you list for having tab as your 2nd top scum read.

 

That's a little weird to me.

I don't think it's likely that Tab in particular, in her first scum game, would agree to a Zander bus. But JS has no experience with you doing that thing you do. Curious to hear his response to this.

[Askthepizzaguy]

 

 

Look back and see for yourself brother.  i feel its pretty much common sense.  But look at my WHOLE case first and tell me if you feel the same way.    Like do you think my case resembles how i tried to push Yates in Diablo for example?

I was thinking more your push on Hallia in Matrix.

 

But I would test Tab's slot over yours without hesitation as things stand.

 

I'm not really bothered by anything she's done in this game yet though, just by the lack of much content to go on, and that's a problem that takes more than one phase to seriously concern me.  Suffice to say I wouldn't be fake peeking her this go around.

 

 

How can you EVEN COMPARE the push on Hallia, I love Hallia but man some of her votes and responses were straight up scummy.  Like I dont feel its even on the same realm of possibility.  Hallia looked bad and I jumped all over it.  My case on Tab isnt really based that much on her just looking bad but Meta and weak reasoning as well.  And did you finish the ENTIRE case or still off of just that part?

 

This sounds a whole hell of a lot like town zander. Thank god.

 

Pushing you up the list.

[Shad_]

How can you EVEN COMPARE the push on Hallia, I love Hallia but man some of her votes and responses were straight up scummy.  Like I dont feel its even on the same realm of possibility.  Hallia looked bad and I jumped all over it.  My case on Tab isnt really based that much on her just looking bad but Meta and weak reasoning as well.  And did you finish the ENTIRE case or still off of just that part?

I'm not even taking your specific points into consideration in this regard. More of a tone/style thing.

[Zander?]

 

I think you really should have read some of my previous games....maybe I'll let Len respond to that.....

 

So youre willing to trust your top scum reads case on Tab because you don't think I'd bus someone??!!!  That;s the only reason you list for having tab as your 2nd top scum read.

 

That's a little weird to me.

I don't think it's likely that Tab in particular, in her first scum game, would agree to a Zander bus. But JS has no experience with you doing that thing you do. Curious to hear his response to this.

 

 

imo

 

[Zander?]

 

How can you EVEN COMPARE the push on Hallia, I love Hallia but man some of her votes and responses were straight up scummy.  Like I dont feel its even on the same realm of possibility.  Hallia looked bad and I jumped all over it.  My case on Tab isnt really based that much on her just looking bad but Meta and weak reasoning as well.  And did you finish the ENTIRE case or still off of just that part?

I'm not even taking your specific points into consideration in this regard. More of a tone/style thing.

 

 

Then I'd suggest you look back at some of my Town!Zander games/pushes to make yourself feel better.  I don't feel its similar but obv you need to come to that conclusion yourself brother.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Unvote Thane

 

Vote: Nolder

 

With Tabor as my alternate, since JS is still higher on my list than Tabor. JS for the consolidation to combine with Dice and make a lynch happen, but wouldn't be pleased with it unless he flipped scum unexpectedly.

 

 

"Why not NotBob" no one asked, disappointingly.

 

[Lenlo]

Why not NotBob?

 

Im going to sleep. Id much prefer just straight lynching Nolder to this plan that has alot of gears turning. Simple solutions man.

[Zander?]

Unvote Thane

 

Vote: Nolder

 

With Tabor as my alternate, since JS is still higher on my list than Tabor. JS for the consolidation to combine with Dice and make a lynch happen, but wouldn't be pleased with it unless he flipped scum unexpectedly.

 

 

"Why not NotBob" no one asked, disappointingly.

 

 

 

I thought you wanted to lynch Tab with me?  And poss try your plan with Nol?

 

Also I need to ISO NotBob but I feel pretty good about my pool of Tab>Nolder>John Snow atp.

[Zander?]

Im also gonna try to catch some sleep here shortly as well.  its only 3:13 am....lolololololol

 

anything else anyone wants to talk about before I do?

[Shad_]

For me, right now:

Alanna

Thane

Lenlo

Dice

 

Pizza

Tabor

BFG

Zan

Notbob

Andrej

 

Nolder

Snow

Top of page 34, going to bed, and I have to wake up way way way too soon. -_-

 

I'm at something like this.

BFG

Lenlo

Pizza

Dice

AJ

Zander

NotBob - put a lot of thought into this slot and I'm feeling pretty okay with him so far.  I've got a question out there for him to answer yet.

Thane

Taborline

Nolder

John Snow

 

Pretty stoked that my previous incarnation had the same scum pile.  We shall GOAT or fail together. 

[Askthepizzaguy]

 

Unvote Thane

 

Vote: Nolder

 

With Tabor as my alternate, since JS is still higher on my list than Tabor. JS for the consolidation to combine with Dice and make a lynch happen, but wouldn't be pleased with it unless he flipped scum unexpectedly.

 

 

"Why not NotBob" no one asked, disappointingly.

 

 

I thought you wanted to lynch Tab with me?  And poss try your plan with Nol?

 

I do, if my plan is agreed upon. That hasn't happened yet. I want it to happen, and I'll give time for it to happen, but you weren't even on board with it.

 

I wanted you to be.

 

:)

 

My vote moves a lot. I'm telling you where it's moving to next if things happen that I want to happen.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why not NotBob?

I don't have a good answer for that.

 

If you stick me in your townie slot, then you know that unless I'm accusing nothing but scumbags, I'm a loud active vocal townie who is making cases and pushing players, some of them should be townies.

 

There aren't a lot of bites until just recently. But there's scant support for lynching NotBob.

 

He's not exactly town-telling right now, he should be null on most people's lists, save a few, and he should be a safe lynch of a townie by a townie.

 

It's not even a bandwagon vote because I voted elsewhere. But there's previous few nibbles there.

 

If the scums are not following the leader they're making their own independent cases and pushing them as alternatives.

 

Those alternatives should be townies almost 100% of the time in this situation.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If NotBob is a townie, that is.

 

If he's scum the lack of support for lynching him is simple. I'm not even voting him, so why bus?

[Askthepizzaguy]

If you stick me in your townie slot

PS Ooolala

[Nolder]

AJ

Shad

 

NotBob

Pizza

BFG

 

Jon Snow

Taborline

Dice

 

Thane

 

Zander

Lenlo

 

Let's start at the top (note each category is in no order) which brings us to AJ. He's seemed pretty open about everything so far. From when he's going to be around to whether he agrees or disagrees. If there's one point against him I'd say that he's being a bit too friendly to everyone and I'd like to see some teeth but other than that I feel good about him.

 

Shad occupies the sport Alanna previously did. I liked Alanna's willingness to chart how she felt about people early without being asked and even though she wasn't here too much she did try to move the game along. Since Shad's gotten here he's taken the time to reread the thread and engage as much as possible. It may surprise people but imo a mafia replacing in often wont bother because they think they can get away with not knowing what's going on, at least for awhile. Especially towards end of deadline like Shad replaced into. So points in his favor.

 

Notbob hasn't hit any of my tells for him yet. Which isn't hard because he hasn't said too much but when he has talked imo it made sense. Not ready to put him in the blue pile yet but I have no problem leaning that way with him this early.

 

Nomi...well I'll be honest here I might have played with him maybe once on another site (maybe?) but this may as well be my first time playing with him so I don't have any meta to look back on here. We're in the same boat in that regard. My thought is that he's being taken in by his own narrative about what I'd do in one game compared to what I'd do in another game etc etc. Truth is people act different from game to game not just role to role. For example I think my last 3 or 4 games prior to this I got mafia all in a row which is why I took a few months break from mafia I was just getting exhausted playing the same role/team over and over. I have no doubt that my last game as mafia wasn't as good a performance as the first game. Anyway I'm taking a long time to simply say I think he's overestimating his ability to understand the way I act from game to game and I think a lot of people do this with everyone to some degree. THAT SAID, I do like that he came out guns blasting and tried to make something happen. I put him leaning town because of that but he's not blue because I'm worried about my ability to read him in the first place. Unlike some people I'd rather hedge my bets on people I've never played with before than think I'm reading them right on D1 of our first game together. :P

 

BFG stepped up from being obscure (to me at least) to the front of the game when called on. I asked her a series of questions and imo she had some pretty good answers for them. From that exchange alone I put her leaning town.

 

Ok now we're in the nulls. Jon Snow I just don't feel has said anything of note. He hasn't been really aggressive but he has been around so it's not like he's been missing. Dunno what it is I just don't have any impressions of him one way or the other yet.

 

Taborline has had almost no game related posts. Would lynch purely for activity reasons.

 

Dice I think is more my fault. I know he's said stuff and engaged and put opinions out there and whatnot but whenever I see his posts I just kind of gloss over them. Dunno why. The guy isn't boring or anything. I think depending on how EOD1 and N1 goes I'll need to buckle down and force myself to just do a Dice read but I don't think anyone has put him up as a lynch so there's no need to do it right now.

 

Thane...well there's not much to say. He hasn't said much and promised to be around more on D2. I put him leaning scum for one reason. I didn't like how when Nomi voted me the first time he jumped to my defense and called it wolfy (post #103). Just strikes me as extremely early to call out a bad vote. Or even a good vote. Any vote. I mean Nomi could have just been joke voting you know? I don't it just struck me as an attempt to buy early credit. Maybe I'm wrong about that but I didn't like it. Hopefully Thane can do some more on D2 to clear his name. Or not, I'd be willing to lynch him if anyone else is up for it.

 

Ok now we come to the scum. It's both funny and unfortunate that they both teamed up to attack me tonight. I obviously already suspect Lenlo but I had planned on doing a case on Xander. Now it's just going to make me look petty and OMGUSy because they went on the offensive first. Such is life though. I mean what can I do about it? It's weird because I don't think Xander knew I was going to go after him I think he just perceived me as an easy target and joined his teammate in finishing what Nomi started. I'll be making posts for each of them separately before deadline.

[dicetosser1]

Andrej, on 16 Dec 2015 - 10:46 AM, said:

Actually let that question be to everyone whenever they see this post

Including details

 

Snow   disappeared   doesnt seem to me to be solving  his pop up to try and convince me was a complete failure  still waiting for reasons from him re me and zander. also he raised his hand about not being excited for SW

Tab   i gave her a chance to get thoughts out there after she questioned me. she didnt take it and then has disappeared. add zanders case to that

 

Shad  he has openly said on skype that he does not like Star Wars and in fact likes star TREK. He has been ex communicated from the Band and needs to be killed with fire.

 

 

Zander, on 16 Dec 2015 - 11:12 AM, said:

 

Lenlo, on 16 Dec 2015 - 03:16 AM, said:

I try to post things as they come to mind as I am reading, because its worked better than what I did before. I am of course still learning how to do this whole trying to win thing well though.

 

In this instance I am Null on Thane though, cause I just cant remember what he has done. I know he has posted but none of it really sticks out enough to remember. I suppose that isnt a really a good thing now that I think about it...

 

Lenlo

AJ

Pizza

Dice
BFG
Laine Shad
Taborline

Lord Commander

NotBob
Thane

Zander

Nolder

 

Who is Lord Commander? Also the nulls are ordered. Everything else isnt.

 

 

I know this prolly just stupid to mention but my god I hate it when people include themselves in their read lists.

 

 

You do realise that people have been voted for NOT including themselves?  it has been postulated that it was a slip showing they were mafia.

 

 

 

 

John Snow, on 16 Dec 2015 - 1:55 PM, said:

Lord Commander

Laine Shad

Pizza

Lenlo

AJ

 

BFG

Thane

Dice

Nolder

NotBob

 

Taborline

Zander

 

 

 

 

I want to reread my nulls and get better opinions on them. 

I'd have dice as light scum if my top town reads weren't town reading him. 

Zander and Tabor are mutually exclusive. I don't see Zander Kivam'ing, so if one flips scum, it clears the other in my book. 

Tabor because of Zander's case on her. 

BFG's meta-based analysis bugs me. Meta is too easy to manipulate, and is (imo) an easy thing for scum to look at. Going to try to get a feel from her other games to see if this is consistent. (The irony). 

I don't even know how to ISO NotBob. 

Nol's one of the ones I really can't decide on. 

Thane's preprocalimed inactivity, nothing to really do with that slot. 
Pretty sure AJ's town here 7/10 times.

95% sure on the dark greens.

 

Red   still dont know why. and if YOU think im scum why are u listening to others?

 

ok ZANDER   learn this JS   Zander needs to change careers. Why you ask"? cause he can drive a bus like no other.    Zander ALWAYS thinks he is town. I and len just scummed with him   we kept pointing out that he was actually MAFIA    his responses?  Im town. EVERY TIME. even saying he was town and just had a really large mafia team to lynch. He does NOT comprehend being anything other then town.  So if ure after him cause he said a num ber of times he is town?  give it up  it means nothing. Also  do you actually expect someone to come out and say "Im Mafia?"   excluding tommyrod.

 

 

 

Tell me  how u going to decide who to lynch first between Zander and Tab?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lynching Zander is a no-go for me.

Lenlo I'm leaning town on but not settled, need to finish my main re-read and then do the individuals.

I am still willing to lynch Thane, the problem is people don't want to do it because it's cruel to lynch a guy who can't defend himself. I don't care, and I will still lynch him if the behavior he exhibited when he could play was scummy, and it was, mildly so. I'm totally going to lynch Thane if you help me do so.

In my travels through this thread I've found people who look townier than Dice, because I have things more substantial to base my opinion on since my initial Dice read, and I don't see much from Dice since then which affects the lean, but he's under no pressure so nothing's going to happen there. If he's scum he's skating right now because he's in a blind spot. But I can't say he is scum.

 

I don't know about Taborline. I'd lynch Taborline based off of what Zander said, and the fact that they were in my blind spot for so long. I need to feel someone's presence in the game so I can place them on my town or scum chart. I'd rather have a negative opinion on someone that I can articulate and put pressure on, and see if that leads somewhere both in terms of lynching them, or clearing them, than no opinion or a nearly null one. I don't know what you are, is grounds for lynching after enough has been posted that can be analyzed.

 

Jon Snow I probably won't lynch without a bunch of my town leans telling me to do so, but I'd do so to consolidate. I lean town on him.

 

Don't have a strong feeling about BFG.

 

Would lynch NotBob.

 

Won't be lynching Shad.

 

Dunno about AJ, but a re-read of AJ should help me place him.

 

@ Nolder Your best bet is Tabor for an actual lynch, or Thane for a suspect we both agree on.