Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

[alannalynn]

@Zander

I can see you getting towny frustration from Thane, but I'm not buying it, I've put my thoughts on the thread about Thane, I'll ISO later to make my thoughts more readable

 

re Dice: Can you go into more detail? What do you think of his insistence that I'm scum? Do you think his tunnel has merit? I don't think you've said anything about the me/Dice situation  because you've been too busy tunneling Talya.

 

re Rand: Would you be willing to vote Rand today or do you believe there is a strong possibility he is town?

 

Bonus: Why is BFG being tied to Talya's flip?

[Zander?]

@Zander

I can see you getting towny frustration from Thane, but I'm not buying it, I've put my thoughts on the thread about Thane, I'll ISO later to make my thoughts more readable

 

re Dice: Can you go into more detail? What do you think of his insistence that I'm scum? Do you think his tunnel has merit? I don't think you've said anything about the me/Dice situation  because you've been too busy tunneling Talya.

 

re Rand: Would you be willing to vote Rand today or do you believe there is a strong possibility he is town?

 

Bonus: Why is BFG being tied to Talya's flip?

 

Thane is not a wolf...I dont see how you aren't seeing it.

 

I'm honestly not throwing a lot into it from his PoV but AJ and Shad are making me worry about you some.  I will have to re read you.  PLEASE DONT BREAK MY HEART ALANNA....but your not gonna get lunched today I'm not yet convinced. but as you noticed you have slid down my list some. 

 

Rand: Maybe...possibly...meh...i dont know...i could...no....perhaps.....  I wanna see how he responds/progresses first.  Prolly only in the event of it being a No Lynch situation or not.  Cause No Lynch is just stupid.  We need info to game solve.  Better bet Lynch Talya.

 

Cause they're teammates imo.

[alannalynn]

 

@Zander

I can see you getting towny frustration from Thane, but I'm not buying it, I've put my thoughts on the thread about Thane, I'll ISO later to make my thoughts more readable

 

re Dice: Can you go into more detail? What do you think of his insistence that I'm scum? Do you think his tunnel has merit? I don't think you've said anything about the me/Dice situation  because you've been too busy tunneling Talya.

 

re Rand: Would you be willing to vote Rand today or do you believe there is a strong possibility he is town?

 

Bonus: Why is BFG being tied to Talya's flip?

 

Thane is not a wolf...I dont see how you aren't seeing it.

 

I'm honestly not throwing a lot into it from his PoV but AJ and Shad are making me worry about you some.  I will have to re read you.  PLEASE DONT BREAK MY HEART ALANNA....but your not gonna get lunched today I'm not yet convinced. but as you noticed you have slid down my list some. 

 

Rand: Maybe...possibly...meh...i dont know...i could...no....perhaps.....  I wanna see how he responds/progresses first.  Prolly only in the event of it being a No Lynch situation or not.  Cause No Lynch is just stupid.  We need info to game solve.  Better bet Lynch Talya.

 

Cause they're teammates imo.

Yeah I don't see Talya either, so I guess we're square?

 

I noticed.    I'm trying to respond as I see things, but I'm not perfect. Please do take a look over my posts and help me out, maybe I'm not explaining myself clearly?

 

re Rand: If you think they're teammates why not go with majority? In SW I was frustrated on the DT because townies were splitting votes between two scum. I don't see the point in being stubborn in that instance, if what you're saying is true and you do believe they're teammates. And I don't see a Talya lynch happening anytime soon, either. It feels like you don't want to lynch scum, imo

 

Zander spoiler:

 

In case you didn't notice, you're below Shad on my list

 

[Talya]

Rand:

 

He admits that his day1 post was hasty, as I said before, his posts had a lot of fluff in them, he picked odd posts to make reads off, to give his reads. He also admits to tunneling D1 and then opening his reads at EOD.

A point to note on D1, when he came back in after a few initial posts, he was surprised to see 21-22 pages, from this he can see how much activity is going on. (he was away 2 and half days)

He says he popped into check the OP didn't see names crossed out and assumed still D1 and didn't check timings. Then says he forgot how much activity required.

Now saying he doesn't have any strong reads.

A couple of posts on his reading/rereading.

 

I'm not seeing any wolf hunting or town solving in any of his posts at. I feel he isn't really engaged in anything, not checking deadlines even after 3-4 days?

 

I cannot see the progression or even thought process on any his reads as Zander says.

 

He is still in my bottom pile.

 

Need to go and look at a few more people, which includes Verb since he has joined us.

[alannalynn]

Townie post from Talya

 

Zander didn't answer all my questions.

 

Where you gooooo?

[alannalynn]

Bedtime for me then I'll be back in 5-6 hours

[Zander?]

 

 

@Zander

I can see you getting towny frustration from Thane, but I'm not buying it, I've put my thoughts on the thread about Thane, I'll ISO later to make my thoughts more readable

 

re Dice: Can you go into more detail? What do you think of his insistence that I'm scum? Do you think his tunnel has merit? I don't think you've said anything about the me/Dice situation  because you've been too busy tunneling Talya.

 

re Rand: Would you be willing to vote Rand today or do you believe there is a strong possibility he is town?

 

Bonus: Why is BFG being tied to Talya's flip?

 

Thane is not a wolf...I dont see how you aren't seeing it.

 

I'm honestly not throwing a lot into it from his PoV but AJ and Shad are making me worry about you some.  I will have to re read you.  PLEASE DONT BREAK MY HEART ALANNA....but your not gonna get lunched today I'm not yet convinced. but as you noticed you have slid down my list some. 

 

Rand: Maybe...possibly...meh...i dont know...i could...no....perhaps.....  I wanna see how he responds/progresses first.  Prolly only in the event of it being a No Lynch situation or not.  Cause No Lynch is just stupid.  We need info to game solve.  Better bet Lynch Talya.

 

Cause they're teammates imo.

Yeah I don't see Talya either, so I guess we're square?

 

I noticed.    I'm trying to respond as I see things, but I'm not perfect. Please do take a look over my posts and help me out, maybe I'm not explaining myself clearly?

 

re Rand: If you think they're teammates why not go with majority? In SW I was frustrated on the DT because townies were splitting votes between two scum. I don't see the point in being stubborn in that instance, if what you're saying is true and you do believe they're teammates. And I don't see a Talya lynch happening anytime soon, either. It feels like you don't want to lynch scum, imo

 

Zander spoiler:

 

In case you didn't notice, you're below Shad on my list

 

 

 

In Red :WTH!!!!! Are you freaking kidding me....like seriously.....Alanna thats just a plain HORRIBLE COMMENT IMO.  ive been AFTER MY WOLF READS ALL FREAKING GAME!!!!

 

and as far as the rest of IT I NEVER PUT TALYA AND RAND TOGETHER AT ALL. so Im not sure what your on about there,  but again i dont like this post at all. please clarify.

[Zander?]

 

 

 

@Zander

I can see you getting towny frustration from Thane, but I'm not buying it, I've put my thoughts on the thread about Thane, I'll ISO later to make my thoughts more readable

 

re Dice: Can you go into more detail? What do you think of his insistence that I'm scum? Do you think his tunnel has merit? I don't think you've said anything about the me/Dice situation  because you've been too busy tunneling Talya.

 

re Rand: Would you be willing to vote Rand today or do you believe there is a strong possibility he is town?

 

Bonus: Why is BFG being tied to Talya's flip?

 

Thane is not a wolf...I dont see how you aren't seeing it.

 

I'm honestly not throwing a lot into it from his PoV but AJ and Shad are making me worry about you some.  I will have to re read you.  PLEASE DONT BREAK MY HEART ALANNA....but your not gonna get lunched today I'm not yet convinced. but as you noticed you have slid down my list some. 

 

Rand: Maybe...possibly...meh...i dont know...i could...no....perhaps.....  I wanna see how he responds/progresses first.  Prolly only in the event of it being a No Lynch situation or not.  Cause No Lynch is just stupid.  We need info to game solve.  Better bet Lynch Talya.

 

Cause they're teammates imo.

Yeah I don't see Talya either, so I guess we're square?

 

I noticed.    I'm trying to respond as I see things, but I'm not perfect. Please do take a look over my posts and help me out, maybe I'm not explaining myself clearly?

 

re Rand: If you think they're teammates why not go with majority? In SW I was frustrated on the DT because townies were splitting votes between two scum. I don't see the point in being stubborn in that instance, if what you're saying is true and you do believe they're teammates. And I don't see a Talya lynch happening anytime soon, either. It feels like you don't want to lynch scum, imo

 

Zander spoiler:

 

In case you didn't notice, you're below Shad on my list

 

 

 

In Red :WTH!!!!! Are you freaking kidding me....like seriously.....Alanna thats just a plain HORRIBLE COMMENT IMO.  ive been AFTER MY WOLF READS ALL FREAKING GAME!!!!

 

and as far as the rest of IT I NEVER PUT TALYA AND RAND TOGETHER AT ALL. so Im not sure what your on about there,  but again i dont like this post at all. please clarify.

 

 

sorry forgot to mention Alanna you KNOW how I play.  I dont move off of people I lock in as wolf and I dont back down from pressure from others,  This post is just making me seriously wonder whats up.

[Verbal32]

I'd bet 2 wolves in the oranges based on wagonomics.  Wolves tend to bury votes on each other D1, or at least bury their vote on a meaningless or impossible lynch.  If I had to choose who to lynch D2 based ONLY on this quote, I'd lynch Rand.  He had a meaningless vote on D1, and in what I've read of him in my catchup, I see multiple FoSes and "intent to vote"-type posts, but I see his vote remained on me.....which was useless.  Add to that his lynch did not go through.  Wolves tend to easily nudge D1 mislynches through, but to have this stall (I don't know yet if there were other reasons for this, btw) makes me think the village might have had a wolf in their sights.

 

More to come on this theory.

 

If you had to pick two - who?

 

Also - Rand did at least attempt to change his vote to Laine after some casing of her, but the way you describe it still fits. Laine wasn't at all on the table for a D1 lynch imo so it was still basically wasted.

 

I also agree on the note that his lynch not going through is troubling. We had 3 players not voting at all EOD and a bunch of others spread out. Wagonomics for me says that if Rand flips wolf I'm finding his partners in the off wagons/not voting section.

 

I agree with the bold - I think Rand's flip could crack the game wide open.

 

 

 

Re Verbs entrance. Sort of null on it so far, I like parts in theory, two things that seem out of place, I'm curious as to why Thanes such a strong town read, but that may just be because I find him so hard to read.

 

The biggest thing for me is his vote train analysis, I get and agree that most mafia are likely off wagon, bolstered by reads of the people on wagon, but there's no way the non voters should be out of Verbs orange list. It weirds me out as a method for keeping himself out of contention.

 

Thane is a strong town read because of the AtE.  Having played plenty of games with Thane by now, imo there's no way he stoops to that level with an "I quit" post.  Dammit I'm locking myself into the same situation I did on JN even though I recently said I'd never do that.  I guess Thane is the exception - I'd be willing to bet the game on this.  I was lightly townreading him before the AtE, so it reads as frustrated townie and not annoyed scum (how I normally divide AtE up).

 

As for the non-voters, excellent point.  I almost did highlight that group as well, but decided to focus on the voters because I'm more confident (if my theory is correct) that a wolf is on a random 1-off train than I am on one being a non-voter.  Let me know if that doesn't make sense.

 

 

 

Starting at page 55, good to see town Verbal again, I like your posts with Zander; I know he's good with his gut reads but if he doesn't get the rest of us to see what he's seeing, it's not gonna go anywhere. On that note, this is the first time I'm not immediately scum reading Talya, which is why she's been sitting in my null. I don't know if it's becuase she has a mentor or because I'm getting used to her, but that's that. Probably would move her up to a cautiously townie spot.

 

Verbal looking to run for town council up in here.  Not mayor, though - I'm voting Shad for mayor.  I'll cry real tears if my village reads are off this game.  Real tears.

I like that you're town reading Shad, if you weren't I'd be worried. On that note, @ Andrej, where are you at irt Shad at this point?

 

 

I'm around kinda Hi Shad

 

Zander, if Talya is scum what are your thoughts on who her team mates might be?

 

Unrelated but I'm kind of frustrated right now because Hallia and Pral feel like real wastes of N1 vig shots and I doubt they died to scum.  -_-  Shooting Rand would have been more likely to kill scum given what we knew at the time and the flip would have given us decent leads either way.

^ Probably Yates that killed Hallia, right? That would make the most sense to me. I can see Yates as a mafia kill. Pral, I have no idea about.

 

Why would Yates be probable to kill Hallia?

 

 Rand, reasons that I think Yates shot Hally:

Yates' post: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, just to name a few.

I feel like you're not even reading the thread, lol

 

Maybe I'l try it this way. In the other games like SW and ME everyone at some point starting reading Talya as Maf or into a PoE this game no one but me is.  Those other games she a little more all over the place this game very concise like she KNOWS who is who,  Like she has to putting EVEN more effort and thought into what she says and does to leave little to no space for error.   Town!Talya is a little more... carefree maybe the word im looking for.   I hope my explanation makes sense.  My gut is telling me somethings up here and so Im following it.

 Maybe this is why I feel comfortable with her for once? haha

 

Still need to reread, but I need someone to give me Shad_'s personality, not as a mafia player but just in general if that makes sense?  As a mafia player too I guess, that's important

 Shad's smart, he hasn't played a lot of games (under 5?). His first game he came in knowing way too much and it was really impressive and he's basically the best townie. Not been mafia yet as far as I know, I'll fear for the town's safety when that day comes haha

 

Verdict: BFG's progressions are smooth as ice and she's really doing her homework.  Little things like town reading Talya without asking her questions first when she pressed others to get early reads.  A big thing in not voting Rand.  But all-in-all, if BFG is wolf she's pretty impressive.  I've never seen a wolf maintain this level of consistency, conform so many reads to responses, and put in this much work.  Is scum!BFG this good?  Someone in this game ought to know.  I have a feeling my strong town read out the gate is going to hold up.  The things that bug me do not trump the many, many things that do not here.  If I went into this much detail on anyone I would find a couple issues.

 

So yeah, tell me scum BFG is really great at pretending to hunt wolves and evolve fake reads organically, preferably with a game example, or I'll be happy to put the breaks on her slide down from my town pile.

 This and your WoT actually make me feel a lot better about BFG, and I've been kinda leaning town for a bit because she's very consistent. I was worried at first because I haven't played with her before and she asks very detailed questions and gauges responses. While this could be a good wolf cover, I doubt it; I think putting her in my town pile is good right now and I'll make sure to go back and read over her stuff too to make sure I'm comfortable with her there.

 

Have read most of the stuff covered today at glance when I could afford the time. I'll be on my laptop soon to quote/respond accordingly.

 

Still pretty good voting Rand at this point. I agree with Verb's comment about how if he were a mislynch we likely would've seen him swing yesterday. The fact two villagers have flipped on his wagon plus my read on Shad & Talya I agree that could've very easily been a pure town wagon. The fact it didn't go through is troublesome and nothing Rand posted today makes me feel better about him.

 I would have gone with the Rand lynch yesterday and missed voting before work, but I'm all for this train today based on what I've seen so far.

 

What's icky is there's not much left.  So 3 scum between:

 

BFG, AJ, Verbal, Talya, Dice, Laine, Rand, Zander, and Thane.

 

Back to town reading BFG after that rather exhausting ISO.

I think Zander is wrong but he's being so Zander.  Hard to believe he could fake this.

AJ hasn't given me any cause to doubt.

Talya feels like town Talya pretty much.  I might be wary that I've found her so agreeable D1 when I usually don't town read her until D2, but I want to think that's becaus I've played a few games with her now.  She's still going against the grain/doing her own thing e.g. scum reading Zander and null on Laine when a lot of people are town reading them.

 

 

Read at present:

 

 

AJ - I have had a good feeling about his posts, I don't see the tunneling that some do, I saw that in the SW game on Seph and this seems more logical and thought out.

Hally - not voting her today, I have really like her posts and thought processes.

BFG - Her questioning and opening part of the game seem sound to me.

 

Dice - I did get a town read on his initial posts to Alanna, I would like to hear more from him

Thane - he had a couple of posts I didn't like towards the end, with his OMGUS vote, but overall, I have a town feel on him.

Shad - I like his posts first of all, I went back and reread, I think I looked too deeply into what he was saying and got a little wrapped up in it. not as high as first, but still on the towny side

Laya - I have like the first few posts he has done, not agreeing with his vote on Hally, positive feel atm

Yates - I have liked posts so far, his thing he did, I don't see what the point of that was if he was wolf, in another game where another team maybe, but can't see what information he would get out of it as a wolf. The only way would be if he was trying clear team mates, I know I'm town, so I'm not seeing this. Still hasn't answer my question on Hally thought. slight town read.

Alanna - I'm not getting a town read on her, however not getting a strong wolf read. There have been a couple of things that I have noticed mainly to do with Thane, and this brings her down to a null

Zander - He grates at me, and I'm not sure where this makes me want to put him. He did this in the last game, and is doing it here, not sure if that means he is town here. There doesn't seem to be any progression in his reads and seems to push others for what they think and then jumps on that.

Rand - Really didn't like his first few posts, there was more fluff in them than needed, and quite a bit has happened so missed a lot, seemed to pick on some inane things to point someone Alanna as scum, although I don't like her stuff with Thane, his did seem reaching. Quite happily vote here

Verb - Verbal, Verbal, where for art thou Verbal -send out a search party

 

the list sort of goes down from Town to mafia, (Apart from Verb), some in the middle can easily go up or down though

 

SW might not have been a great example of scum!Verbal, I don't know, but I wanted to lynch him D1 his tone was so different from Alien.  He's talking like Alien again in this game.  Feels good.

Laine feels like Laine but maybe less active?  She's not leading the pack like I'm used to but she didn't D1 in SW either.  Thinking it's an availability thing.

Most people like Dice.

Thane looking better.

Rand not looking better enough.

 

Dice Thane and Rand?  Meh.  What else do we have?  Laine being sneaky wolf, able to replicate her tone but maybe not her content so much?  I do see connections between BFG and Talya, mainly in their town reads of each other without much explanation, but I don't get scum vibes from either of them.  A deeper wolf really pulling the wool over our eyes?

 

 I like your reads list here Shad, I'm having trouble with Thane and Dice still though. Seeing Thane D2 I'm feeling a little better about his responses but probably not moving him out of my scummish pile due to D1. As for Dice, all I see is him tunneling me and I would like some other input on this. I think BFG and a few others weighed in and said this was a townie move on his part, so I'd rather treat him as such until I can get a better feel (this is why I had to cop view him in SW danggit) but I still have this nagging feeling at how he jumped into the game and suddenly started going after me. So, I'm on the fence there.

Edit: Later BFG asks why I was trusting her reads of Dice even though she was in null for me atp: you took the time to do the research and your observations are generally really spot on, so I trust you when you say Dice is playing different in ME/SW. Then again, I'm still not quite there with him enough to consistently read him higher than my scum pile, if that makes sense

 

 

 

[v]Rand[/v]nch

 

[v]Rand[/v] only lynch I'm feeling pretty good about.

 

im not sure Rand flips wolf here but ANYTHING is better then a No Lynch.  we need the info.  But im feeling a wolfy vibe from BFG/Talya...only places I can see myself voting unless a major slip of some sorts.

 Why don't you feel Rand is scum, Zander?

 

 

Kind of sketched out by Laine's posts on pg 54 but maybe I'm just being paranoid.

 

At this point there's 3 wolves in 10 players. Take yourself out and you get 9, 1/3 of those are wolves.

 

Clear some town reads and post your POE pool imo and I think we'll have a pretty clear direction to move in for toDay.

 

Was it the "if I were mafia" comment?  I got blasted so hard for those in my first game.  Learned kind of quick to not word things that way regardless of what I'm thinking.  <_<

 I don't see anything wrong with that phrase; I tend to try and think from their mindset to predict what they would do. Meh.

 

Below four quotes from Andrej's WoTs, I trimmed down just the questions for me, but you can click them to see the context (didn't want a ton of nestled quotes)

This one sort of bugs me because I don't understand the (seemingly) disconnect between the stuff she quotes from Hallia that she states she doesn't like but town reads her for how she's reacting to Yates?

I was town reading Hally at this point and I was a little disappointed at first that she wasn't fighting with the LOLs but then she bounced back. I honestly hated her vote on Yates, it was pure OMGUS because he was calling her out and that in itself didn't look good, but she built back up with her responses and didn't get herself lynched.

 

Don't really like the bolded section here. Reads to me like Laine is no longer considering Dice a suspect? I don't remember this read coming about and would like to hear her explain it.

Read above where I responded to Shad about Dice. I'm really flip flopping on him and I can't quite place it I guess.

 

Disagree with the bolded. Strongly dislike the underlined.

I was in a hurry with the two posts that you quoted, so let me better explain what I meant: Pral was pretty quiet on D1 and pretty much only fos'd me and Hally (?) I believe, so my conclusion is that the kill was made to create wifom, based on Hally's flip and me knowing my alignment. Sure, we should look back, but to try and guess the reasons behind that kill is guesswork at best. As for the second part of that, as mafia I would be more likely to kill a loud town player over someone whose post count was below 10, especially you or Zander because you two are strong town leaders and generally are pretty good at searching out wolves. We could also conclude that we have a deep wolf high in the town piles that's why specific kills weren't made, but I'm sure on Zander and mostly sure on you, so I don't know where that gets me, that's for later tinfoil imo.

 

NK spec is always a little scummy to me on the merit that scum can talk about it in a misleading way. The part you say about the obvious targets not being a threat doesn't really align with what you said previously about Pral's reads not being worth looking into. If you/me/Zander weren't killed because we're not threats (and I assume this means on the right track) then wouldn't it make more sense to look at Pral's reads? Or at least consider them?

See above, guesswork.

 

Ouch.  All that green is you giving yourself an out to change reads.  Lots of "cautiously" putting people in a pile, and needing further review.  Spoken like a wolf that wants to commit to as few reads as possible, and is happy playing off of everybody else.

 

As for the red....huh?  You're saying the wolves killed Pral to literally incriminate you?  Why?  You weren't being a town leader, and you weren't a lynch candidate going into D2.  Why would the wolves kill Pral based on what you're saying?  Am I missing your point here, or are you actually saying they killed Pral to create wifom on you?

[Talya]

@ Verb That posts of Alanna's looks similar to her stuff on Thane on day one. Also agree with what you say on her red part. She actually says that reasons for the kill is guesswork and yet still wants to put it out there she could have been the reason the wolves went for Pral. We don't even know for definite they went from him, although can't see it being a towny vig (unless it was someone doing a Zander or NB) :/

 

Need to look again at Alanna. Compare her to some of her town games...I'm sure I have read her better than this day one. Doesn't seem to want to push anything.

[Andrej]

Rand/Laine for w/w?

 

Rand's vote was still wasted on the EOD no matter how you wanna look at it and perhaps the 'scummy' stuff he referred to with Laine comes from the perspective that he knows she's a wolf and therefore is already looking at her that way. Could be why most of us thought he was exaggerating.

[Andrej]

As for the red....huh?  You're saying the wolves killed Pral to literally incriminate you?  Why?  You weren't being a town leader, and you weren't a lynch candidate going into D2.  Why would the wolves kill Pral based on what you're saying?  Am I missing your point here, or are you actually saying they killed Pral to create wifom on you?

 

My thoughts exactly.

[Andrej]

Oh - there was something in Rand's post the other night that I forgot to address.

 

There's one point where he asks Shad if he has Rand as a scum read simply because he town read Thane or because he was inactive (neither was the real reason) and then makes a Yates-esque comment regarding Shad's town reads on the top posters saying that there is 'usually a wolf in the top' or whatever.

 

Reads similar to me with what Yates said in SW D1 when he quoted the top four post counts and asked which was a wolf. It's a paranoia tactic to induce tinfoiling within the ranks, not a fan.

[Zander?]

pretty confident in saying that after playing in ME with Town!Verb and SW with Maf!Verb and seeing his post thus far he's prolly town imo.  Anyone have thoughts on this?

[Andrej]

 

Heading to bed, Thane and Rand :hopper:  to me so far, actually feeling really good about the other active participants.  Except Dice, but Dice is Dice.  I think I will always scum read him.

 

Thane Rand and one of our two MIAs for game solve?  Saying it now so I can see how totally off I was once I ascend to the DT.  :P

 

Sorry, I missed your reasoning on this, was this because I was inactive or townread Thane or something else? Also curious on why you're assuming that the most active participants are town (or you're townreading them), since scum usually likes to have one active participant in the mix to manipulate opinions to what they need.

 

This is the post I was referring to, btw. The part I dislike about it is that from Rand's perspective if we assume he legitimately hasn't read anything - what is the point of making this sort of comment if he doesn't know any better about those players? Not sure if it's inside knowledge or just a general FOS to keep people from getting cleared for their involvement. Maybe both?

[Andrej]

Agreed, Zander.

 

Verb looking pretty villagery atm - but I wouldn't clear him yet. Wanna see how some other people flip first and then I can reevaluate but I'm happy with his progression this morning.

[Zander?]

so other then Rand AJ who else is on the WTL list for today for you.

 

obv mine in order:

 

Talya

BFG

Rand,,,,,but meh Im still thinking hes town and may only do this to avoid a No Lynch scenario.

 

I agree we need flips to help clear things up.

[Andrej]

Laine is creeping her way down into my WTL pile pretty quickly.

 

Problem I'm having is idk who the third would be if those two are w/w. Probably getting ahead of myself on that note, but once the wheels get going they spin fast lol

[Talya]

pretty confident in saying that after playing in ME with Town!Verb and SW with Maf!Verb and seeing his post thus far he's prolly town imo.  Anyone have thoughts on this?

 

I actually agree with this, I think Verb is sounding a lot better in this game.

 

Zander can you show me why you think Rand is town, you seem to think he is town and yet now you are saying you could lynch him, you haven't expanded on your BFG/Me list at all, do you have any other scum leans?

[Zander?]

 

pretty confident in saying that after playing in ME with Town!Verb and SW with Maf!Verb and seeing his post thus far he's prolly town imo.  Anyone have thoughts on this?

 

I actually agree with this, I think Verb is sounding a lot better in this game.

 

Zander can you show me why you think Rand is town, you seem to think he is town and yet now you are saying you could lynch him, you haven't expanded on your BFG/Me list at all, do you have any other scum leans?

 

 

I've explained my thoughts on you BFG and Rand already.  And Rand is the lowest of my town reads as I've also already stated,  This is where Im at atp.  fwiw ill be looking more into BFG and Alanna after what I went over early and what AJ and Shad mentioned as well.

 

also think we need more info to further most people's reads cause a lot of it only has 2 wolves and are reaching for a 3rd.  a lynch gives us much needed info to game solve that we didnt get last night with the No Lynch which Im not a fan of.

[RandA lThor]

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/94787-belichick-mafia-day-two/page-24?do=findComment&comment=3508419

 

 

Rand, can you explain why you're ignoring alltogether the setup spec from Thane, but commenting on it for Talya? It feels like you're setting up the next step. lso you ignore Laines participation in this conversation altogether, despite her being one of your suspects?

 

Next post it's worth noting that he says Dice is acting like Dice, Dice is also voting Laine, yet leaves Dice off his reads list.

 

Not a fan of his Day 1, which can basically be summed up by Laines vote reaction, game mechanics and fluff. Day 2 seems mostly so far a 'need to reread' sort of thing.

 

I don't hate that he has Thane as town, it was non consensus. I don't follow his thought process in how he's reacting to people in the game mechanics talk, seems erratic at best.

 

Does he push Laine to the second highest train (or try to) and then bail if they're teammates? :/ need more!

To your first question, it was because Talya was commenting on game specs that Darthe had already told us about (which is useless unless he's bastard modding) where as Thane was contemplating a game plan.

 

Starting at page 55, good to see town Verbal again, I like your posts with Zander; I know he's good with his gut reads but if he doesn't get the rest of us to see what he's seeing, it's not gonna go anywhere. On that note, this is the first time I'm not immediately scum reading Talya, which is why she's been sitting in my null. I don't know if it's becuase she has a mentor or because I'm getting used to her, but that's that. Probably would move her up to a cautiously townie spot.

 

Verbal looking to run for town council up in here.  Not mayor, though - I'm voting Shad for mayor.  I'll cry real tears if my village reads are off this game.  Real tears.

I like that you're town reading Shad, if you weren't I'd be worried. On that note, @ Andrej, where are you at irt Shad at this point?

 

 

I'm around kinda Hi Shad

 

Zander, if Talya is scum what are your thoughts on who her team mates might be?

 

Unrelated but I'm kind of frustrated right now because Hallia and Pral feel like real wastes of N1 vig shots and I doubt they died to scum.  -_-  Shooting Rand would have been more likely to kill scum given what we knew at the time and the flip would have given us decent leads either way.

^ Probably Yates that killed Hallia, right? That would make the most sense to me. I can see Yates as a mafia kill. Pral, I have no idea about.

 

Why would Yates be probable to kill Hallia?

 

 Rand, reasons that I think Yates shot Hally:

Yates' post: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, just to name a few.

I feel like you're not even reading the thread, lol

 

Maybe I'l try it this way. In the other games like SW and ME everyone at some point starting reading Talya as Maf or into a PoE this game no one but me is.  Those other games she a little more all over the place this game very concise like she KNOWS who is who,  Like she has to putting EVEN more effort and thought into what she says and does to leave little to no space for error.   Town!Talya is a little more... carefree maybe the word im looking for.   I hope my explanation makes sense.  My gut is telling me somethings up here and so Im following it.

 Maybe this is why I feel comfortable with her for once? haha

 

Still need to reread, but I need someone to give me Shad_'s personality, not as a mafia player but just in general if that makes sense?  As a mafia player too I guess, that's important

 Shad's smart, he hasn't played a lot of games (under 5?). His first game he came in knowing way too much and it was really impressive and he's basically the best townie. Not been mafia yet as far as I know, I'll fear for the town's safety when that day comes haha

 

Verdict: BFG's progressions are smooth as ice and she's really doing her homework.  Little things like town reading Talya without asking her questions first when she pressed others to get early reads.  A big thing in not voting Rand.  But all-in-all, if BFG is wolf she's pretty impressive.  I've never seen a wolf maintain this level of consistency, conform so many reads to responses, and put in this much work.  Is scum!BFG this good?  Someone in this game ought to know.  I have a feeling my strong town read out the gate is going to hold up.  The things that bug me do not trump the many, many things that do not here.  If I went into this much detail on anyone I would find a couple issues.

 

So yeah, tell me scum BFG is really great at pretending to hunt wolves and evolve fake reads organically, preferably with a game example, or I'll be happy to put the breaks on her slide down from my town pile.

 This and your WoT actually make me feel a lot better about BFG, and I've been kinda leaning town for a bit because she's very consistent. I was worried at first because I haven't played with her before and she asks very detailed questions and gauges responses. While this could be a good wolf cover, I doubt it; I think putting her in my town pile is good right now and I'll make sure to go back and read over her stuff too to make sure I'm comfortable with her there.

 

Have read most of the stuff covered today at glance when I could afford the time. I'll be on my laptop soon to quote/respond accordingly.

 

Still pretty good voting Rand at this point. I agree with Verb's comment about how if he were a mislynch we likely would've seen him swing yesterday. The fact two villagers have flipped on his wagon plus my read on Shad & Talya I agree that could've very easily been a pure town wagon. The fact it didn't go through is troublesome and nothing Rand posted today makes me feel better about him.

 I would have gone with the Rand lynch yesterday and missed voting before work, but I'm all for this train today based on what I've seen so far.

 

What's icky is there's not much left.  So 3 scum between:

 

BFG, AJ, Verbal, Talya, Dice, Laine, Rand, Zander, and Thane.

 

Back to town reading BFG after that rather exhausting ISO.

I think Zander is wrong but he's being so Zander.  Hard to believe he could fake this.

AJ hasn't given me any cause to doubt.

Talya feels like town Talya pretty much.  I might be wary that I've found her so agreeable D1 when I usually don't town read her until D2, but I want to think that's becaus I've played a few games with her now.  She's still going against the grain/doing her own thing e.g. scum reading Zander and null on Laine when a lot of people are town reading them.

 

 

Read at present:

 

 

AJ - I have had a good feeling about his posts, I don't see the tunneling that some do, I saw that in the SW game on Seph and this seems more logical and thought out.

Hally - not voting her today, I have really like her posts and thought processes.

BFG - Her questioning and opening part of the game seem sound to me.

 

Dice - I did get a town read on his initial posts to Alanna, I would like to hear more from him

Thane - he had a couple of posts I didn't like towards the end, with his OMGUS vote, but overall, I have a town feel on him.

Shad - I like his posts first of all, I went back and reread, I think I looked too deeply into what he was saying and got a little wrapped up in it. not as high as first, but still on the towny side

Laya - I have like the first few posts he has done, not agreeing with his vote on Hally, positive feel atm

Yates - I have liked posts so far, his thing he did, I don't see what the point of that was if he was wolf, in another game where another team maybe, but can't see what information he would get out of it as a wolf. The only way would be if he was trying clear team mates, I know I'm town, so I'm not seeing this. Still hasn't answer my question on Hally thought. slight town read.

Alanna - I'm not getting a town read on her, however not getting a strong wolf read. There have been a couple of things that I have noticed mainly to do with Thane, and this brings her down to a null

Zander - He grates at me, and I'm not sure where this makes me want to put him. He did this in the last game, and is doing it here, not sure if that means he is town here. There doesn't seem to be any progression in his reads and seems to push others for what they think and then jumps on that.

Rand - Really didn't like his first few posts, there was more fluff in them than needed, and quite a bit has happened so missed a lot, seemed to pick on some inane things to point someone Alanna as scum, although I don't like her stuff with Thane, his did seem reaching. Quite happily vote here

Verb - Verbal, Verbal, where for art thou Verbal -send out a search party

 

the list sort of goes down from Town to mafia, (Apart from Verb), some in the middle can easily go up or down though

 

SW might not have been a great example of scum!Verbal, I don't know, but I wanted to lynch him D1 his tone was so different from Alien.  He's talking like Alien again in this game.  Feels good.

Laine feels like Laine but maybe less active?  She's not leading the pack like I'm used to but she didn't D1 in SW either.  Thinking it's an availability thing.

Most people like Dice.

Thane looking better.

Rand not looking better enough.

 

Dice Thane and Rand?  Meh.  What else do we have?  Laine being sneaky wolf, able to replicate her tone but maybe not her content so much?  I do see connections between BFG and Talya, mainly in their town reads of each other without much explanation, but I don't get scum vibes from either of them.  A deeper wolf really pulling the wool over our eyes?

 

 I like your reads list here Shad, I'm having trouble with Thane and Dice still though. Seeing Thane D2 I'm feeling a little better about his responses but probably not moving him out of my scummish pile due to D1. As for Dice, all I see is him tunneling me and I would like some other input on this. I think BFG and a few others weighed in and said this was a townie move on his part, so I'd rather treat him as such until I can get a better feel (this is why I had to cop view him in SW danggit) but I still have this nagging feeling at how he jumped into the game and suddenly started going after me. So, I'm on the fence there.

Edit: Later BFG asks why I was trusting her reads of Dice even though she was in null for me atp: you took the time to do the research and your observations are generally really spot on, so I trust you when you say Dice is playing different in ME/SW. Then again, I'm still not quite there with him enough to consistently read him higher than my scum pile, if that makes sense

 

 

 

[v]Rand[/v]nch

 

[v]Rand[/v] only lynch I'm feeling pretty good about.

 

im not sure Rand flips wolf here but ANYTHING is better then a No Lynch.  we need the info.  But im feeling a wolfy vibe from BFG/Talya...only places I can see myself voting unless a major slip of some sorts.

 Why don't you feel Rand is scum, Zander?

 

 

Kind of sketched out by Laine's posts on pg 54 but maybe I'm just being paranoid.

 

At this point there's 3 wolves in 10 players. Take yourself out and you get 9, 1/3 of those are wolves.

 

Clear some town reads and post your POE pool imo and I think we'll have a pretty clear direction to move in for toDay.

 

Was it the "if I were mafia" comment?  I got blasted so hard for those in my first game.  Learned kind of quick to not word things that way regardless of what I'm thinking.  <_<

 I don't see anything wrong with that phrase; I tend to try and think from their mindset to predict what they would do. Meh.

 

Below four quotes from Andrej's WoTs, I trimmed down just the questions for me, but you can click them to see the context (didn't want a ton of nestled quotes)

This one sort of bugs me because I don't understand the (seemingly) disconnect between the stuff she quotes from Hallia that she states she doesn't like but town reads her for how she's reacting to Yates?

I was town reading Hally at this point and I was a little disappointed at first that she wasn't fighting with the LOLs but then she bounced back. I honestly hated her vote on Yates, it was pure OMGUS because he was calling her out and that in itself didn't look good, but she built back up with her responses and didn't get herself lynched.

 

Don't really like the bolded section here. Reads to me like Laine is no longer considering Dice a suspect? I don't remember this read coming about and would like to hear her explain it.

Read above where I responded to Shad about Dice. I'm really flip flopping on him and I can't quite place it I guess.

 

Disagree with the bolded. Strongly dislike the underlined.

I was in a hurry with the two posts that you quoted, so let me better explain what I meant: Pral was pretty quiet on D1 and pretty much only fos'd me and Hally (?) I believe, so my conclusion is that the kill was made to create wifom, based on Hally's flip and me knowing my alignment. Sure, we should look back, but to try and guess the reasons behind that kill is guesswork at best. As for the second part of that, as mafia I would be more likely to kill a loud town player over someone whose post count was below 10, especially you or Zander because you two are strong town leaders and generally are pretty good at searching out wolves. We could also conclude that we have a deep wolf high in the town piles that's why specific kills weren't made, but I'm sure on Zander and mostly sure on you, so I don't know where that gets me, that's for later tinfoil imo.

 

NK spec is always a little scummy to me on the merit that scum can talk about it in a misleading way. The part you say about the obvious targets not being a threat doesn't really align with what you said previously about Pral's reads not being worth looking into. If you/me/Zander weren't killed because we're not threats (and I assume this means on the right track) then wouldn't it make more sense to look at Pral's reads? Or at least consider them?

See above, guesswork.

To the 1,2,3,4,5,6 links, yeah you're right, still rereading, and I get that this is what most of you are mad about, but I'm honestly actually just rereading... um, I'll try to post where I'm at before I go to work at around 8:30, and then I'll work on it at work a little, just if its alright, someone quote me before I get lynched in case I miss it, so I get a notification and do the appropriate things (claim/give out final reads etc.)

[Zander?]

Laine is creeping her way down into my WTL pile pretty quickly.

 

Problem I'm having is idk who the third would be if those two are w/w. Probably getting ahead of myself on that note, but once the wheels get going they spin fast lol

 

i wanna look into Alanna as well but I agree with you on this.

[Zander?]

@ Rand Id advise to both catch up and answer questions in real time cause your like the soup de jour on today's lunch menu.

 

ill ask some

 

Reads List

WTL list

and explain to us why your town,

[RandA lThor]

@ Rand Id advise to both catch up and answer questions in real time cause your like the soup de jour on today's lunch menu.

 

ill ask some

 

Reads List

WTL list

and explain to us why your town,

My reads list hasn't changed too much from last time since I haven't read enough to change it yet.

 

Town reads;Zander, Yates, Shad, Dice

 

Scum reads: Laine, Talya, AJ (he lesssened a little after reread pgs. 1- 25)

 

 

the best way to play this after looking at the set up again is to preserve the vigs. So VTs need to town tell like crazy and vigs shoot from within the pov. Hero shots probably aren't gonna win this

this was the first actual discussion post for the game imo, and although its pretty obvious I liked that he was getting discussion started

[Talya]

Having a quick look over Alanna.

 

Her first posts are fluffy, nothing seems off here compared to other games. Once the game starts she does ask questions. She does keep commenting on people voting for her. but Meh!.

 

For some reason I cannot get this to quote - post #299

 

Here she is summarising, but she doesn't put any thoughts to it apart from the bit on Thane and yet still has him as null.

______________________________________________

Just rereading for overall summarizing, wanted to get a feel for the topics that have been brought up in the game so far

 

pg 1-2 all rollover from the last game
pg 2-6 I'm getting voted (Shad, Hally, Yates) for disliking normal things; this is where Shad comes in with his town read of BFG after Andrej asks
pg 6-8 Sports talk??
pg 7-9 Vig talk: holding +ev for town (started by Yates/AJ)
pg 10 a lot of spam
pg 11-13  Yates and his "no lynch" plan that he clears Zander/Talya for; really don't like Thane's post #260, which Andrej and Zander point out as well; I mention he's pinging but differently than in Star Wars; Also don't like the post quoted below
pg 14-15 July 4th, revisiting Shad's reasoning

 

for the moment, Zander is the only one i trust here. I can always Vig him if he betrays me in another game.

 

As for Verb and Pral, they'd be 0 info lynches. Would be nice to wreck some wolves without too much town casualties this game, and we'd need to gather info to do so, right?

 

I'll be coming and going this weekend, depending on how the kids want to spend their time *nods*

I'm all for clearing Zander already, but why bring up Verb and Pral like we're going to lynch them? They haven't even made a post yet in the game. Feels like a weird thing to mention. Second sentence in the underlined is odd too, it seems like you want an info lynch more than a wolf lynch. But you bring up Verb and Pral as if they're on the table. 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________

 

These are the responses to Dice. I have to say I didn't see anything in these posts. she had a lot on and off her over not liking things, so she may have got a bit tetchy

 

Dice how is that helping at all? Do you have actual points to make?

 

 

You didn't hit a nerve Dice, it's just that I already received three votes for not liking things, and then you hop in on a vote when we're actually discussing the game in the thread, when you could be adding to what we're saying. That looks worse on you than on me, imo.

 

 

Yes i joked. with like my SECOND POST.  Keep talking laine  throwing blame like that is making me more certain

 

yates test seemed jokey in nature yet he is calling poeple town off it.

 

AJ was sudden with that vote on shad. I think he saw something that caused a gut vote

I don't care if it was your first post, second post, 20th post.. we're on page 18 and you posted a joke vote in the middle of game talk instead of adding to the current goings-on. Do you at least see where I'm coming from? Look back at how I reacted to the other votes on me, I even commented that I'll probably get vigged tonight as a joke. So you can't really say my comment was an overreaction.

 

 

This seems more touchy that the others. The only thing to say is, that she took all the others without too much fuss, in fact she brought it up, this she doesn't like. I also see Dice's view, it was a joke vote, and an obvious joke vote she could have easily taken it the same way as the others. On the whole I see nothing wrong with her reaction unless she was worried of getting lynched through joke votes, and I really don't see that happening.

 

Quoting is going weird, so I will try another post.