[Advanced] Star Wars Mafia

[alannalynn]

It's too friggin early for those numbers Darthe, stop it.

[Darthe]

Blegh, wombocombo is coming up a lot already.  I don't think either of them would have trouble fooling us if they were wolves.  Prob need to look into that slot.

[Zander?]

And the answer is that there is a 25% chance of any slot being on the wolf team.  You put three slots together and it's 75% that there is a wolf in the group of three.  That's standard ratios.  

 

This game doesn't have standard numbers.  With 18 we can have four suped up wolves or five weak wolves.  So 4/18 is .22 and 5/18 is .27 roughly.  Thus you have between a 66% and 82% (rounding up here) chance of three players being wolves.  This averages out to 74% likelihood of there being a wolf among us.

 

 

[Darthe]

It's too friggin early for those numbers Darthe, stop it.

YOU ASKED FOR IT

[WWWwombat]

Sili is wolf lean to you? That's kinda the opposite of my impression. Can you elaborate on that?

 

 

He had a somewhat plausible explanation, but I'm still bothered by his approach to AJ/Seph.  And unlike others, I don't really care that much about his post volume because he seems to be sitting back to me.

[csarmi]

@Sooh: I explained Zander. His reaction and forced sounding. Too much. Yea i knoq he is eager. Still.

 

#WomboCombo: preferred most of the trains. Remembered i didn't like them. Then they kind of went away so pressure dont grow. But the quick iso i did on them today just didn't convince me they were scum. I didn't see what i didn't like before.

 

So i dunno whom to lynch. I dont feel AH. Weird townie on Seph and taking his peek off the table. Which leaves me with whom?

[鲍勃不是我的名字]

 

 

I didn't answer for him. I asked you a question. Answer please.

 

Yes, you did...if you noticed he has posted many times...but as of yet has never answered this question directly.

Pretty sure I answered it. And quoted it when I did. It was shortly after you posted

 

 

I don't see it.  Again, how does faking a N0 peek benefit this town?

[alannalynn]

Blegh, wombocombo is coming up a lot already.  I don't think either of them would have trouble fooling us if they were wolves.  Prob need to look into that slot.

I like Wombrej better. Wombocombo makes me forget that Andrej exists. And you probably should, we can't trust me to know what's going on

 

 

It's too friggin early for those numbers Darthe, stop it.

YOU ASKED FOR IT

It is almost 10AM. Mornings = evil, bad for thinking.

[WWWwombat]

Heart train is crap and people pushing it should feel like crap.

[csarmi]

Ouch: Laine, this sort of grouping ia mafia logic...

 

Wait i prova ya.

 

Guize guize. Dont you feel there is a good chance we got a wolf with a name starting with "A"? Let's lynch them one by one.

[csarmi]

 

 

 

I didn't answer for him. I asked you a question. Answer please.

 

 

Yes, you did...if you noticed he has posted many times...but as of yet has never answered this question directly.

Pretty sure I answered it. And quoted it when I did. It was shortly after you posted

 

I don't see it.  Again, how does faking a N0 peek benefit this town?

Faking N0 peek doesn't help as there was no N0. Faking D1 day peek does, however.

[alannalynn]

@ Sooh - thanks for the boy on Zander, I was going to check the other threads to see what he was like. He is s prolific payer here so that's why it might stand out.

 

@ Sooh again - I don't like the idea of just lunching someone just because you just don't want someone that may oray mot be around. This isn't smells wolfie to me. There was a feel of wanting an easy lynch on someone.

 

@ Alanna - I'm also a bit suspicious of AJ disappearing, I didn't like how tunnelling he was on Seph, I need to go over Womby's post tonight. Because he is coming across better

I don't know, I had the same thought as Sooh, but didn't say it. Besides, it wouldn't really give enough information, and I know that Heart is worth is when she's around.

 

It's sad that the only information we have on Andrej is that he tunneled Seph

And the only information on Dice is that he's still tunneling Durin

[鲍勃不是我的名字]

FWIW I'll put my vote there. Don't have a better option right now.

 

[v]Dice[/v]

 

good vote

 

i guess

[Leelou]

 

FWIW I'll put my vote there. Don't have a better option right now.

 

[v]Dice[/v]

 

good vote

 

i guess

 

 

To me that just shows Eldrick is more derp town. 

[鲍勃不是我的名字]

We only have 19 hours to settle on someone here.  Seph and AH aren't good options imo. 

 

who are you voting?

[alannalynn]

Ouch: Laine, this sort of grouping ia mafia logic...

 

Wait i prova ya.

 

Guize guize. Dont you feel there is a good chance we got a wolf with a name starting with "A"? Let's lynch them one by one.

Haha yeah I know, but doesn't it count for anything if two of those hydras are slacking?

[Leelou]

 

Sili is wolf lean to you? That's kinda the opposite of my impression. Can you elaborate on that?

 

 

He had a somewhat plausible explanation, but I'm still bothered by his approach to AJ/Seph.  And unlike others, I don't really care that much about his post volume because he seems to be sitting back to me.

 

 

I think you reigned AJ in too much. Has he even been around in your QT? 

[csarmi]

Might have time to reread wh3n i get home. Yayz.

 

Who are we eating again?

[WWWwombat]

Everything I'm doing here?  Tone, thread presence, conversative measures, awareness, relaxed air, all that jazz ya'll are picking up on?

 

Yeah, that's my town game.  It's as easy and smooth as Kenny G and as real as Bino.  

 

I should vote you just for mentioning Kenny G.

[Leelou]

 

We only have 19 hours to settle on someone here.  Seph and AH aren't good options imo. 

 

who are you voting?

 

 

I think he's voting for me. 

[鲍勃不是我的名字]

 

 

 

 

I didn't answer for him. I asked you a question. Answer please.

 

Yes, you did...if you noticed he has posted many times...but as of yet has never answered this question directly.

Pretty sure I answered it. And quoted it when I did. It was shortly after you posted

 

I don't see it.  Again, how does faking a N0 peek benefit this town?

Faking N0 peek doesn't help as there was no N0. Faking D1 day peek does, however.

 

 

ok...who did what?

[Darthe]

 

 

FWIW I'll put my vote there. Don't have a better option right now.

 

[v]Dice[/v]

 

good vote

 

i guess

 

 

To me that just shows Eldrick is more derp town. 

 

I learn more from you every day.

[Leelou]

Might have time to reread wh3n i get home. Yayz.

 

Who are we eating again?

 

Are you going to help #solve or just #rideyourclaim all game? 

[WWWwombat]

 

 

You bypassed giving a percentage chance you believe I would make that claim as mafia. I will ask you for that now.

This is really really dumb. The fact he's voting you for it means it's 51% or better. What's the point in pushing Dice on quantifying something that is, by his own admission, based on speculation? The more you guys do this stuff the more I think he might be on to something.

 

 Above is the beginning of the conversation. Yates states clearly that the fact he is voting me means it is =>51%. Dice actually stated it as "pretty low". The reason to ask is that the suspicion needs to add up to a reasonable percentage in order for it to be a proper push. Let's say that Dice believes I did this at 10%. That would mean that I am 10% to be a wolf. Rand is about 25% so it still is <rand that my slot is mafia. For him to push at me(and Darthe) in this situation is silly. You could just as well say that someone would be mafia for posting a smiley.    

 

Where if he believes it at something like 50%, then it would be worth pushing. He didn't say coin flip or anything else to imply that he felt it was that likely. Therefore he is just blowing hot air and waving his arms around talking tough. 

 

 

Dice admitted that the percentage for me making that post as wolf was "pretty low". To me that is not =>51% as you stated.

Now who's not reading the thread? What, in your opinion, was the point I was making when I questioned your rationale for quantifying that read? Because I'd still like for you to address that...

 

I gave my answer to what I am guessing you were asking about in the first post. The question in the second post does not equal the question in the first post. I frankly don't know what you are on about so if you could explain it again using small words it might help.

 

My best guess is that you were trying to make me look bad because I asked him to quantify his level of belief (or his thought of likelihood).  

 

Bottom line is I asked in order to gauge whether he had sufficient believe to justify his actions of voting and making a big stink and posturing in an OTT manner that parodies his town meta. The same meta he claims to not be able to properly emulate as mafia. 

 

 

This post almost made me fall asleep.

[alannalynn]

 

Ouch: Laine, this sort of grouping ia mafia logic...

 

Wait i prova ya.

 

Guize guize. Dont you feel there is a good chance we got a wolf with a name starting with "A"? Let's lynch them one by one.

Haha yeah I know, but doesn't it count for anything if two of those hydras are slacking?

 

Btw, was that a subtle push on me, Aiel Heart, or Andrej?