American Gods Mafia [Advanced] - mafia win

[Daetirion]

Ok, hadn't realised the meta had shifted quite so significantly. Point behind my post was that if someone goes day 1 or longer without posting, Mafia see an easy kill, a kill which gives Town little to no information and effectively means Town entering day 2 have just as little information as day 1 (except cop and possibly medic, if they got lucky). So effectively Mafia get a 'free kill', and we end up lynching another Town like as not day 2. 

 

Clearly things have progressed. To start, day 1 seems a hell of a lot more active than it used to be (tended to be almost just checking in, and blind accusations). Second, everyone seems to have played with each other repeatedly and can therefore compare previous games (back in the day you'd be looking at 1/3rd of a game being decently experienced, max). Thirdly, the aggression levels have risen to put more pressure on in day 1. And finally, lurking doesn't seem to be applicable as a play style any more - used to be probably a 70% chance a lurker was Mafia, and you'd have 2 or 3 players who wouldn't post/would post very little.

 

All things combined, it used to make a lot of sense to kill off lurkers as either Mafia or Town. Regardless, it is all academic now as NotBob has checked in and posted substantively. 

 

On other reads, I have just got back from what should have been "jolly up the motorway to IKEA for 5 hours" which turned into "nightmare and hell for 15 hours". Need some time to chill and work out what's gone on.

[Darthe]

I could go back if you really want, but it was mainly just the feel I got while reading it. They both seemed very cautious, which is not something I associate with their town games.

I'm really just interested in seeing if anybody has anything of substance after all this time

[Darthe]

Dae wolves tend to kill people who are louder now so that at the end of the game the only ones who are left can't really make good decisions. similar lee it is considered an honor to be killed because it means you were a threat

[Andrej]

Wombat I disagree on Dae.

 

To paraphrase he basically said "let's lynch this villager so the wolves have a harder time picking their NK"

 

Like... wut?????????????

[WWWwombat]

 

I could go back if you really want, but it was mainly just the feel I got while reading it. They both seemed very cautious, which is not something I associate with their town games.

I'm really just interested in seeing if anybody has anything of substance after all this time

 

 

Ok.  I'll do it.  I'd say a small amount of substance probably but still D1 stuff.

[WWWwombat]

Wombat I disagree on Dae.

 

To paraphrase he basically said "let's lynch this villager so the wolves have a harder time picking their NK"

 

Like... wut?????????????

 

So is he a lock wolf to you?

[Andrej]

I think it's something a villager should never say. I'm reading the posts now about how DMafia was played back in his hay day, but still - that stance is a legit terrible one and I would certainly lynch him for it because I don't find it coming from a villager the majority of the time.

[Andrej]

Like if he wanted to push the angle that NotBob was scum and lurking I could accept that and I would say that's par for the course regarding NB.

 

But saying we should lynch him because wolves will NK him both assumes that NotBob is town and implies he wants to willingly lynch someone he thinks is town for... profit??

[Daetirion]

Wombat I disagree on Dae.

 

To paraphrase he basically said "let's lynch this villager so the wolves have a harder time picking their NK"

 

Like... wut?????????????

 

No, combine that with the theory that lurking is a classic mafia strategy (at one point the stats here were something like 70% of lurkers were Mafia) and then we have a legit play. Best case, you get a lurking mafia, worse case you lose a villager that wasn't engaged and force the mafia to make a NK that gives info.

 

Unless someone absolutely breaks down, that strat always seemed a better idea than lynching randomly (which, lets be honest, it normally is at this point - I can remember about two games where we got a Mafia on night 1 and one of those was pure luck).

 

Interesting if the new strat is to go for the 'leaders'. Egging on the vocal leaders, i can see that. Manipulating those leaders, ditto. I could see the Mafia doing well if we ended up floundering for lack of leaders at the end, but seems risky if they get it wrong and risk giving the medic a clear save target.

[WWWwombat]

I'm really not even sure how this N0 peek / Day cop discussion got started. There was no N0 this game so I'm wondering why people are even floating the possibility as if it's somehow grounded in reality.

 

This thing that the N0 peek is a day action confuses me.. I always thought it was a random NA for N0. Clearly I'm not completely up to speed as to what everything is or isn't yet. 

 

I'm not quite sure what to make of these early votes and suspicions. I get that Darthe's peek was strange, but then again I'm not all clear on the mechanics. 

 

I don't know why you don't like Dice this game, AJ. I think he seems relaxed and villagery in this game. He has had a process which he showed us every step of. I like that about him. 

 

I don't like the way he retracted his statement after Snow immediately called him on the mistake. The bit about leaving it on purpose just to see how John reacted and then giving John a town read for it is sketchy to me and doesn't seem like something I think Dice would do as a townie. Gives me the impression he's trying to soothe suspicion with kindness - or at least that's the best way I can characterize it.

 

AJ issues suspicion on Dice.  I agree with AJ about the reaction test not making much sense and can see why he might see it as a way to "soothe suspicion" but I don't see it as being something that town Dice wouldn't do.

 

 

 

 

Dice you know how we talk about gut reads and stuff all the time? Right now mine is telling me I should vote you. That's a problem.

 

Does your tummy hurt?? Cause it must be sick.

 

 

I'm really not even sure how this N0 peek / Day cop discussion got started. There was no N0 this game so I'm wondering why people are even floating the possibility as if it's somehow grounded in reality.

 

This thing that the N0 peek is a day action confuses me.. I always thought it was a random NA for N0. Clearly I'm not completely up to speed as to what everything is or isn't yet. 

 

I'm not quite sure what to make of these early votes and suspicions. I get that Darthe's peek was strange, but then again I'm not all clear on the mechanics. 

 

I don't know why you don't like Dice this game, AJ. I think he seems relaxed and villagery in this game. He has had a process which he showed us every step of. I like that about him. 

 

I don't like the way he retracted his statement after Snow immediately called him on the mistake. The bit about leaving it on purpose just to see how John reacted and then giving John a town read for it is sketchy to me and doesn't seem like something I think Dice would do as a townie. Gives me the impression he's trying to soothe suspicion with kindness - or at least that's the best way I can characterize it.

 

And yet it IS something I did. I DO understand reaction tests you know and guess what?? I can try to do them too. You KNOW this as it was you i recently asked "are you mafia" and someone jumped on me doing it.

 

 I LITERALLY went to post a retraction and then rethought it deciding to see what John said. I thought his initial response was awesome. Totally town. kinda like a slap to the back of my head saying wake up. I am tinfoiling on the follow up response cause i think he goes too far but it is tinfoil. For now im quite happy to have him as town.

 

 

Dice comes back with an explanation and some strong emotion.

 

 

You AJ I am not liking. I think you jumped boots first on a perceived weakness. As i have just explained you of all people know i do reaction tests to a limited extent.

 

 

unvote vote AJ

 

Seems like an OMGUS vote to me.  I've never seen Dice as a particularly black-and-white type player, so I don't like it.

 

 

Yeah that sounds like some garbage Dice. True enough you "reaction test" but that's in the form of a straight forward question. Here you're saying you intentionally left a mistake to see what the outcome would be. If the mistake was that obvious John could've answered the same as either alignment so I don't see what you were hoping to gain there.

 

Also if I wanted to jump on you I would've voted you. Consider this as a bridge of communication because I know my ability to read you and I don't want you to swing until I'm convinced your scum. Thus far I haven't liked your posts this game and counter attacking me isn't going to help.

 

AJ makes the point that the reaction test means nothing and then issues Dice a warning of sorts.  These types of warnings tend to come more from scum than town imo.

 

 

 

 

Dice, is stupid in your town or mafia meta?

AJ take a look at that response. Thats not a standard sort of answer to that sort of thing. Thats pure honesty tone wise. NOT something Mafia posts.

I will agree that I thought the response was genuine, but that's not really the issue I have here. What I disliked was you saying that you left the mistake intentionally to see how Snow responded to it. That's not something I see you doing. Part of what I consider your town game is your bluntness. You're not the type to try tricky phrasing or whatever to get reactions.

 

 

AJ says it's not in Dice's town game to do something like that, but doesn't address the equally important issue of whether or not it's in Dice's scum game.

 

 

 

 

 

Dice, is stupid in your town or mafia meta?

AJ take a look at that response. Thats not a standard sort of answer to that sort of thing. Thats pure honesty tone wise. NOT something Mafia posts.

I will agree that I thought the response was genuine, but that's not really the issue I have here. What I disliked was you saying that you left the mistake intentionally to see how Snow responded to it. That's not something I see you doing. Part of what I consider your town game is your bluntness. You're not the type to try tricky phrasing or whatever to get reactions.

 

 

Well I did it.  I wouldnt say there was tricky phrasing or anything. I simply didnt recant what was a fairly straightforward post.

 

anyways moving on now

 

 

Dice basically says: I did it.  Get over it.

 

Somewhat townish reaction imo.

[seph]

 

You and aj usually read each other well, so I am a bit worried here.

 

 

Why?  Maybe one of them is right.  Maybe both.

Because I am not sure that they both are town. Which is why it bugs me.

 

Dae to be honest I think lynching give more information than nks. You have vote records, stances, and a more evidence then wondering why mafia killed this person.

I get your explanation, but the way that was posted earlier looked extremely scummy. And it doesn't clear you at all.

[WWWwombat]

town

John Snow

Thane  (hope im not mixing up games here)

 

null

everybody not named

 

 

 

Mafia

AJ

 

Dice has AJ as his sole mafia read.

 

 

You and aj usually read each other well, so I am a bit worried here.

 

This post still bothers me.  Why should Dice and AJ being at odds on D1 bother Seph?

 

 

we have been having an off patch last couple of games. His tones a little different since he came back which im still working on. I just did something he isnt used to me doing. 

 

Seems ok.

[Darthe]

Backwards though it is I have seen that logic from many older players

[WWWwombat]

Does that Dae post fall into too wolfy territory?

 

Thane you seem townish. Not a bad point regarding Snow fwiw regarding your post frequency.

 

Dice I'm not mafia. You kind of answered for yourself why we're off to a bad start this game. I'm not at all convinced you're scum yet after getting over my initial omgus feelings the way you're fighting back with teeth bared is probably villagery for you. I'm dropping it.

 

 

[v]Dae[/v]

 

You got some explaining to do.

 

NotBob - now that you're here though, read up and give some thoughts?

 

These posts are kind of inconsistent imo.  Why ask the too wolfy question if you're gonna vote him anyway?

[WWWwombat]

 

 

 

Dice, is stupid in your town or mafia meta?

AJ take a look at that response. Thats not a standard sort of answer to that sort of thing. Thats pure honesty tone wise. NOT something Mafia posts.

I will agree that I thought the response was genuine, but that's not really the issue I have here. What I disliked was you saying that you left the mistake intentionally to see how Snow responded to it. That's not something I see you doing. Part of what I consider your town game is your bluntness. You're not the type to try tricky phrasing or whatever to get reactions.

 

 

Is it something you see him doing as scum though?

 

 

I bring up AJ not addressing whether or not Dice was on his scum meta.  To me, it would seem much easier for scum to retract the post and say something to the effect of "Oops, I'm an idiot; disregard that" than to take the "reaction test" tack.

[Andrej]

Typically I don't fall under the too wolfy logic and my initial reaction was legitimately to say to myself "is this $h*t for real?"

 

Regarding Dice I agree with that last post you quoted with his response to me about getting over it - hence why I backed off. I don't feel the need to turn D1 into a head to head battle with someone I had a knee jerk read on who is appearing more villagery. And tbh I haven't seen Dice wolf in a while - the last time was in Csarmi's Hitchhiker game I believe so I can't really say if the reaction test thing is something he'd do as scum. I did think, however, that it was at odds with the town game I have become accustomed to which is why I pushed it.

[WWWwombat]

 

 

You and aj usually read each other well, so I am a bit worried here.

 

Why?  Maybe one of them is right.  Maybe both.

Because I am not sure that they both are town. Which is why it bugs me.

 

Dae to be honest I think lynching give more information than nks. You have vote records, stances, and a more evidence then wondering why mafia killed this person.

I get your explanation, but the way that was posted earlier looked extremely scummy. And it doesn't clear you at all.

 

 

Neither am I.  But if one is town and one is scum, then one of them is still accurate and one is just lying.  If both are scum, then they are distancing.  Neither of those possibilities are particularly surprising imo.  Personally, I see one scum as being the most likely scenario, but I'm not ruling out the others.

[Andrej]

Backwards though it is I have seen that logic from many older players[/quote

 

We've come so far.

[Daetirion]

Backwards though it is I have seen that logic from many older players

Yeah yeah, product of my generation. God I feel old. And behind the times.

[Andrej]

And Dae you're adding the caveat that NB could be scum after the fact. So either you expressed yourself extremely poorly or you have already assumed (or know) he is town and are still willing to lynch him.

 

Old school or not that is legit terrible town play or just straight wolfy.

[seph]

 

 

 

You and aj usually read each other well, so I am a bit worried here.

 

 

Why?  Maybe one of them is right.  Maybe both.

Because I am not sure that they both are town. Which is why it bugs me.

Dae to be honest I think lynching give more information than nks. You have vote records, stances, and a more evidence then wondering why mafia killed this person.

I get your explanation, but the way that was posted earlier looked extremely scummy. And it doesn't clear you at all.

 

Neither am I.  But if one is town and one is scum, then one of them is still accurate and one is just lying.  If both are scum, then they are distancing.  Neither of those possibilities are particularly surprising imo.  Personally, I see one scum as being the most likely scenario, but I'm not ruling out the others.

This is why I was wondering why you didn't like my opinion because I Basicly read it the same way as you.

 

With deadline on Sunday morning, we need to do some work today.  Dae is a stupid lynch.  His post was by no means a scum claim and his lynch gains us nothing if he flips town.  Right now, my top 4 lynch candidates are Seph, AJ, Dice, and Sooh.  In particular, I don't see the way Dice and AJ interacted as coming from V/V or W/W.  It reads like they were feeling each other out a bit but then Dice brought some OMGUS to the table, which is a bit scummy in this situation imo.  Then AJ backed off, which is also kinda scummy imo.  I don't see them doing such inept distancing as scummates, but I don't get a V/V feel from it either.

[WWWwombat]

Backwards though it is I have seen that logic from many older players

 

It was kind of valid given DM meta at the time.  If you lynch a vocal player on D1 and the wolves are lurking, then you're not going to get a lot of scum lynches on D1.  And if wolves are prone to kill town lurkers, then lynching lurkers is a +EV play.  Of course, back then everyone posted a lot less and true inactives were also prone to modkill so it was more complicated than that.

 

I can kind of see AJ's point in that Dae's initial post approached the situation like he was assuming NotBob was town, but I can't tell if that's TMI or just an assumption that we're probably going to lynch a townie on D1 anyways.

[WWWwombat]

And Dae you're adding the caveat that NB could be scum after the fact. So either you expressed yourself extremely poorly or you have already assumed (or know) he is town and are still willing to lynch him.

 

Old school or not that is legit terrible town play or just straight wolfy.

 

What if I told you that there's roughly a 75% chance that we lynch a villager today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

You and aj usually read each other well, so I am a bit worried here.

 

Why?  Maybe one of them is right.  Maybe both.

Because I am not sure that they both are town. Which is why it bugs me.

Dae to be honest I think lynching give more information than nks. You have vote records, stances, and a more evidence then wondering why mafia killed this person.

I get your explanation, but the way that was posted earlier looked extremely scummy. And it doesn't clear you at all.

 

Neither am I.  But if one is town and one is scum, then one of them is still accurate and one is just lying.  If both are scum, then they are distancing.  Neither of those possibilities are particularly surprising imo.  Personally, I see one scum as being the most likely scenario, but I'm not ruling out the others.

This is why I was wondering why you didn't like my opinion because I Basicly read it the same way as you.

 

With deadline on Sunday morning, we need to do some work today.  Dae is a stupid lynch.  His post was by no means a scum claim and his lynch gains us nothing if he flips town.  Right now, my top 4 lynch candidates are Seph, AJ, Dice, and Sooh.  In particular, I don't see the way Dice and AJ interacted as coming from V/V or W/W.  It reads like they were feeling each other out a bit but then Dice brought some OMGUS to the table, which is a bit scummy in this situation imo.  Then AJ backed off, which is also kinda scummy imo.  I don't see them doing such inept distancing as scummates, but I don't get a V/V feel from it either.

 

 

I guess I took issue with the way you phrased it what with being worried due to them usually reading each other accurately.  It seemed odd to me.

[Andrej]

Wombat I would guess you are a villager this game. I am happy to see that.

 

I don't mind your conclusion regarding myself and Dice but I know I'm town and I think Dice is more likely to be than I thought originally so I'm still going to say you are probably wrong.

[WWWwombat]

[unvote]

Blót: AJ