House of Cards

[Cory Caboose]

Why so high on Cass?

 

I know she hit a lot of "feels villagery" emotional tells, but remember there was signficant movement pushing her on d1 and she needed to do something to get people off her back. She is a crafty player and when pushed into a situation as a wolf, she will try very hard and do what she needs to in order to get clear.

 

I'm not calling her a wolf, but I don't think she's done anything this game that she isn't capable of doing as a wolf

[Cory Caboose]

@ Kay, not Tress

 

Tress you're really a villager right? Pls?

[Songstress]

@ Kay, not Tress

 

Tress you're really a villager right? Pls?

 

Rly rly, darlin'.  

 

 

If you don't trust the SHC biz you can put me as your 4th to lynch if you must.  I will be most put out, but I'll probably forgive you eventually, if you grovel enough.

[Songstress]

@ Cory - I'm gonna need you to help me figure out Clov today since you're probably the N3 dead guy and you've played with him more than any of us.  Plus he's your same-sex life partner and all.

[Cory Caboose]

I say what I say about Cass specifically because she's a player that follows her heart and is more than capable of making good reads as a villager

 

If you browse over our little spat on d1 (I remember Wombat chiming in on this, gonna be fun to see what he said) Cass' defense is basically "you expect too much from me, I'm not really a good villager, I am paranoid and etc. etc." and she made a lot of really clever emotional appeals but the fact of the matter was she was trying to figure out ways to set up a narrative of "I am Cass, and I am going to be a poor villager this game" which just sketches me out so much because A) Cass is not a new player and should not be given "new inexperienced player" treatment; she's actually got more than a few games under her belt now and B) she's usually a very competent player who makes confident reads, even if she is wrong now and then. It all seems like some pre-ordained excuse.

 

IDK either her confidence in her villager game is at an all-time low for some reason or she has another reason for setting up that narrative.

 

She's going to be a key slot for me to figure out, just like yesterday.

[Cory Caboose]

@ Cory - I'm gonna need you to help me figure out Clov today since you're probably the N3 dead guy and you've played with him more than any of us.  Plus he's your same-sex life partner and all.

 

Will do, but he's probably never getting out of my bottom four even if his entire game was villager gold until now. 

[dicetosser1]

So today we reread through Wombat for spew and figure out why Leelou was killed over other seer considerations, including myself

 

I sort of thought she was seer after the dice thing, which is why I fakepeeked her in the first place, and I can see someone thinking something is up when she defended me and pushed Wombat considering Wombat's her friend and I'm lesser so

 

It really points to Verbal as did the really weak bussing going on between them but I'll keep chugging and go through the thread with a clear head

 

I figured out that leelou was seer quite a bit ago. If i did im sure mafia did. Im actually considering the opposite on Verb. If he is mafia then he'd have to know a leelou kill would point right at him. Tho her being seer might outweigh that

 

I say what I say about Cass specifically because she's a player that follows her heart and is more than capable of making good reads as a villager

 

If you browse over our little spat on d1 (I remember Wombat chiming in on this, gonna be fun to see what he said) Cass' defense is basically "you expect too much from me, I'm not really a good villager, I am paranoid and etc. etc." and she made a lot of really clever emotional appeals but the fact of the matter was she was trying to figure out ways to set up a narrative of "I am Cass, and I am going to be a poor villager this game" which just sketches me out so much because A) Cass is not a new player and should not be given "new inexperienced player" treatment; she's actually got more than a few games under her belt now and B) she's usually a very competent player who makes confident reads, even if she is wrong now and then. It all seems like some pre-ordained excuse.

 

IDK either her confidence in her villager game is at an all-time low for some reason or she has another reason for setting up that narrative.

 

She's going to be a key slot for me to figure out, just like yesterday.

 

What I saw in Cass was true Cass tone. It was like skyping her. I could here HER ya know?

 

 

my bottom 4

 

tress

AJ

Clov

Verbal

 

i am most paranoid on AJ. clov i cant trust my read. tress im just not sure on. Verbal probably IS the best way to go but see what i put above.

 

 

my top town are cory nyn kaylee

[Songstress]

I say what I say about Cass specifically because she's a player that follows her heart and is more than capable of making good reads as a villager

 

If you browse over our little spat on d1 (I remember Wombat chiming in on this, gonna be fun to see what he said) Cass' defense is basically "you expect too much from me, I'm not really a good villager, I am paranoid and etc. etc." and she made a lot of really clever emotional appeals but the fact of the matter was she was trying to figure out ways to set up a narrative of "I am Cass, and I am going to be a poor villager this game" which just sketches me out so much because A) Cass is not a new player and should not be given "new inexperienced player" treatment; she's actually got more than a few games under her belt now and B) she's usually a very competent player who makes confident reads, even if she is wrong now and then. It all seems like some pre-ordained excuse.

 

IDK either her confidence in her villager game is at an all-time low for some reason or she has another reason for setting up that narrative.

 

She's going to be a key slot for me to figure out, just like yesterday.

 

As I recall, he was really fence-sitty on that.  He said he kinda liked her post where she was ranting about you and Darthe trying to get her to play differently, but then acknowledged that some people find real time interaction more valuable and said your request was legit.   He had her as a yellow read D1 and part of his middle tier of "no higher than null/mixed" D2, along with AJ.

 

Thing to remember is that Cass has only been town once that I remember, and that was her first game.  She's had a long string of games as mafia - and after that I can totally see her not being confident in her town game.  I've tried to read most of her posts as carefully as I could during the week I was in the stress factory that passed as my vacation, and I felt like she was making sense.  I'll re-read her posts but she's not my highest priority for today.  I think Verb is most likely to be mafia, and Clov has me more worried than she does.

[Clovdyx]

Verbal is almost certainly mafia IMO.  He made a lot of effort to keep Wombat as a mafia suspect, but I really don't see any work towards getting a Wombat lynch.  The strongest argument he made was Wombat's progression on Kaylee on D1 (which I didn't think was too bad) then moved on Cass D2.  

 

That's consistent with his theory there would be one mafia between Cass-Sooh, but he later told somebody (Nyn?) that he's been 90% on Wombat all game and 5% on Cass.  If that's the case, why did he limp on Wombat?

[Clovdyx]

Last mafia...I don't know.  I've been suspicious of Cass most of the game, but if I'm right about Verb, that means two of his top three candidates were his teammates.  If it's AJ, that means HIS most consistent two candidates on D2 were his teammates (Wombat and Verb).

[Cory Caboose]

Sup Clov

[Clovdyx]

Watching Friday Night Lights, you?

[Cory Caboose]

dice I will remind you that I love you and all that stuff but I remember specing a game where you said basically all the same things about Cass - I think it was Warehouse 13 - and Cass was making similar types of "frustrated" posts and you cleared her for it and you were Mafia

If I die tonight (and I almost certainly will, I think), please please please don't just clear Cass to do it. Again, not saying to lynch her, but don't clear her on things like tone.

[Cory Caboose]

Watching Friday Night Lights, you?

 

Wondering if you are a wolf LDO

[Cory Caboose]

dice I will remind you that I love you and all that stuff but I remember specing a game where you said basically all the same things about Cass - I think it was Warehouse 13 - and Cass was making similar types of "frustrated" posts and you cleared her for it and you were Mafia

If I die tonight (and I almost certainly will, I think), please please please don't just clear Cass to do it. Again, not saying to lynch her, but don't clear her on things like tone.

 

Cass was mafia*

 

wolfy-push of dice, tho

[Clovdyx]

 

Watching Friday Night Lights, you?

 

Wondering if you are a wolf LDO

 

 

Nope.

[Cory Caboose]

If AJ is a wolf he 100% exactly decided to try and replicate his "bad big-game hunting villager game" and that was his play and he ran with it

 

I know he hasn't really been strong this game but that version of AJ I have seen several times as a villager and never as a wolf.

 

He's still in my "4 people that should be lynched", but he's probably at the top

[Clovdyx]

Trying to go back and look through how my uncleared list interacted with Wombat/what they said about him.  Kaylee doesn't have a whole lot to make me feel one way or another, but for whatever reason, this post (and Wombat's bottom quote it was in reply to) make me feel like she's probably not a teammate.

 

 

 

 

 

Anyways, I'm asking because it just seemed strange to me that you would list your peek in green and then reveal it later, and it HAPPENED to be the person that Darthe peeked. I couldn't help but read it as a possible situation where you had to go check who his death spewed town and then use that person as your own peek.

Especially considering she was presumably null WITHOUT the peek factoring in.

Disregard the last. I'm too tired to figure out what you're getting at with the bold but I feel it might be important. Noting it for later.

First, his death doesn't spew anyone as town. Unless I read his flip wrong it said VT. That means he was providing cover and guessed at a peek. Esp since he did it practically at the start is the game.

Sorry but reading that again just got to me. Honestly not sure why you're pushing this angle.

Pretty sure we already went over SHC a couple times. Basically, the mafia is unlikely to kill someone who posted an inaccurate peek for obvious reasons.

Dammit people read what i'm saying.

I meant wasn't sure why he was pushing the fact that I help my peek originally then didn't. Explained why I didn't and why I was going to... back at D1 in fact so had nothing to do with who was killed or why.

I get what you're saying about why he was killed.

 

 

I'm pretty sure she was getting frustrated with me, so I don't know that he would interject himself into the argument.  Then she had this interaction with Cass later about it.

 

 

 

 

Cass, he didn't catch me because there's nothing to catch. I'm town.

I was getting upset because he originally was saying that I had to check to see who Darthe spewed town before giving my peek.

1) The first reason that's wrong is what I've already explained. I liked, and agreed, with AJ'S D1 thought about holding peeks until EOD. Since I had already said that I felt I didn't need to repeat it again beginning of D2 when I said I'd wait to reveal it. I put Tress as green. Regardless of the fact I forgot to hit post when I typed that I liked her reads I had her a green. Then when I got the news about my mom I decided to reveal after all and put her to a blue read.

Now, if I had not had Tress as a green right away, then I could maybe see where he's going with this push.

2) Why would I, as a wolf, say I'd wait then turn around and say my peek was Tress? That draws me in the light like it has. It would've been better to say I peeked a different name off my green list.


Believe me or not but what I said is what happened in point 1.

Clov later changed the argument to being that I chose Tress and that it was seer cover, but that wasn't his orignal push.

Also, Wombat chimed in after I explained what happened and pushed that it wad the seer cover thing. Doesn't make me feel better about him b/c at that point I had already explained that the original push was something different.

As for why I chose Tress, i did like her reads and wanted to know if she was town. (Oh look, a shiny!)

That was for Tress btw, an inside comment she'll get.

Thanks for the extra explanation. I think I mostly understand/agree with where you are/were coming from and until something else stands out about either of you I'm still reading you the more likely Town. Not sure what this means for Clov.

I didn't see the bold as overly suspicious when I re-read and re-read, fwiw, I saw it as him developing his suspicion on you and I don't know if that's alignment indicative either way. Wombat I'll have to go back and look at later on, thought he was just explaining SHC but it will be interesting to read to see if you have it right.

How many shiny inside comments does Tress have??

The bold on Womby. My problem isn't his explanation but rather the timing. Clov and Cory had already explained seer cover, and I had already explained that Clov was talking about something else.

 

 

That just seems like a really weird thing to do for distancing if they were mafia-mafia together.  Not sure I'll put her ahead of AJ, but I feel pretty good putting ground between her and Cass/Verb.

[Verbal32]

I'm not a wolf. Don't make me a mislynch because a NK on a Seer Leelou points at me. Imagine a villager Verbal's POV on that, and you'll know how irritated I am at the suggestion.

 

I'll be online plenty tomorrow, so I'm prepared to dance. I'm going to actually take Cory's advice to filter the thread and read everything before I move forward.

[Cory Caboose]

Like, consider his scumread on Darthe early d1.

 

He says "I have a mild scumread on Darthe because I think he was pushing people to leave cover early and he might have been doing that to try and get people to peek wrong or peek in a way that's mechanically invalid or etc."

 

When making this read, he has to be about 80% sure that considering Darthe as a player and the thread's feelings on Darthe that read is going to be met with a good deal of resistance.

So he's either A) a villager who made a read and decided to display it because it's his job to push people he thinks are wolves regardless of how the thread feels OR B) a wolf who decided that he wanted to get some early bertstares thrown his way early.

 

It's just more likely he's a villager doing that, but he's selectively in the PoE because I think he's capable of it, but his wolf game is pretty static and he usually just tries to be villagery and make friends and stuff of that sort. He feels so much like a villager to me even if he's had a bad game.

 

But not as much as Nyn/Tress/Kay ATM

[Cory Caboose]

I'm not a wolf. Don't make me a mislynch because a NK on a Seer Leelou points at me.

 

I'd be "mislynching" you because A) you are the least villagery person in the game ATM and we work our way from the bottom, B) because I don't believe your stance irt to Wombat - for example compare your take on Wombat to the way you handled Wolf!Leelou in the Warehouse 13 game, because C) I have seen you be a competent and strong villager before and you're more floaty and less involved as a wolf and you are scream the latter to me ATM and D) because I think you are one of the few players that opts out of killing me for whatever reason.

 

You can change A & C and at least do your best to make good reads today if you are a villager. You'll get a fair chance as any, but don't act like you're in this spot because of the NK. You have been down in the PoE for awhile now.

 

Don't worry about being mislynched, worry about finding three villagers or finding two wolves.

[Songstress]

I feel pretty good about AJ FWIW - I know he's capable of fooling people, and in my original reads list I was going to put him as a slight town with reservations because of his capability to pull off a convincing town act.  I decided to make him my fake peek N0 specifically because my other town reads were too obviously town.  I understood completely when he dropped his seer cover and went back on his town read of Verb because I chose my fake peek the same way he did - and I'd been wavering on whether to keep him as a town read up until that point.  That read as extremely genuine to me.

[Clovdyx]

I just took a quick peek at Middle Earth, Cory.  I'm not going to pretend I read all 15 pages because lolno, but I did find a readslist that pretty much demonstrated what you just said.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Sooh - mentored by Corn

3. Alot Eternal Phoenix 2.0
4. Alanna Aiel Heart
5. Dice
6. John Snow Yates 2.0d

9. Talya

14. Taborline
15. Andrej
16. Alannalynn

19. seph - mentored by Kaylee

21. TinaHel

23. Cass

 

If we look at the bottom 12, and the recent discussion about how many wolves, then 2/3 of it are wolves.

 

If I had to rank these I'm not really sure where I'd start.

 

I would put Yates/Dice at the top closer to light green.

 

Tina would be orange, but I want to look at her again because she's been sorta quiet lately and that sketches me out. Her Hallia vote looks worse too.

I would probably put Tayla here as well because her recent posts have been really good but I am still a little wary of her when I think about her interactions D2 with Pizza's claims in mind.

 

Moving down to brick red(brown?) I would list Alot of Phoenix, Seph and Cass here. Alot I need to go back and read again and I'm interested in EP's thoughts on Tina whenever he gets back now that he moved his vote over. Seph had some heat D1 even though I felt okay about but he's either busy or just not contributing anymore. He's one that might need to be revisited soon. Cass I am a little wary of because of the points she seems to be focusing on and her overall absence throughout the thread, but I don't want to condemn her just for being busy. Manbat gave me some villager vibes D1 but that was a while back. Another one that should be figured out sooner than later. Sooh rounds out this category for her lack of read progression. She is doubling down on her Dice read which hasn't changed since D1(?) and I also think she could fall into my Rule of 4s theory.

 

Red/Brick red section would be the rest. Taborline is going to be considering wolf until proven otherwise as far as I'm concerned at this point. I'm still sketched out by all of AH's 'gut and feels' reads at this point. I think is she's a wolf there's probably some good spew to find there as to who her partners are. Laine is here because I don't like the way she is picking up Cass's argument and sort of running with it, making it seem like I was trying to stop all convo when really I was just saying that the tinfoil hat stuff was starting to sound fake, and because she's one I feel has been focusing on strange topics instead of engaging into the bigger discussions.

 

TDRL

 

Dice

Yates

 

Tina

Tayla

 

Alot of Phoenix

Seph

Cass

Sooh

 

Laine

Aiel Heart

Taborline

 

 

 

 

 

 

With no offense intended towards any of them, that's not exactly a "who's who" list of players at the bottom.  A lot of inexperienced players (at least on DM)/older players who haven't played recently.  That was around the middle of his ISO so it's possible all of the more typical players were dead, but it's in keeping with your take on him.

[Clovdyx]

He was mafia, of course.

[Verbal32]

 

 

I'm not a wolf. Don't make me a mislynch because a NK on a Seer Leelou points at me.

I'd be "mislynching" you because A) you are the least villagery person in the game ATM and we work our way from the bottom, B) because I don't believe your stance irt to Wombat - for example compare your take on Wombat to the way you handled Wolf!Leelou in the Warehouse 13 game, because C) I have seen you be a competent and strong villager before and you're more floaty and less involved as a wolf and you are scream the latter to me ATM and D) because I think you are one of the few players that opts out of killing me for whatever reason.

 

You can change A & C and at least do your best to make good reads today if you are a villager. You'll get a fair chance as any, but don't act like you're in this spot because of the NK. You have been down in the PoE for awhile now.

 

Don't worry about being mislynched, worry about finding three villagers or finding two wolves.

That's fine, if A and C are why I'm in the PoE...I expect that.

 

But I really don't like D and feel like there is something going on here but I can't put my finger on it (yet).