A Tale of Middle Earth: Game OVER

[Andrej]

 

 

 

UNOFFICIAL COUNT

 

GLADIATOR BATTLE COUNT:

VERBAL (13/11): EP, pizza, Eldrick, Alot, Yates, Talya, Tina, Heart, Laine, Dice, Hallia, Cass, Sooh

 

pizza(4/11): Thane, Leelou (x2?), Verbal, 

 

NOT VOTING (6/20):Krak, Taborline, Andrej, SephVOTES ARE LOCKED

 

WAITING FOR MOD confirmation.

Extremely high density of wolves on that Verb wagon.

 

NSS (No S*** Sherlock) - yeah are probable a fair few on there, bit obvious, why not use the Darthe one and not this one, will have to check to see if you were voting at the end.

 

Soul read machine says listing them in order as they appear: Alot, Tayla, maybe Tina, Heart, Laine and Cass. You're welcome. Line them up and knock them down and town will win. If I'm wrong about any of those swap in Hallia and profit.

 

I got from you total town to total scum, thought that your flattery would work on me? I will answer some of the points you make further down, but I may ask why the sudden switch, or is this OMGUS because I don't like what you having been saying,

 

Dice is a villager because he is saying whatever the hell he wants and isn't trying to dress his arguments. Sooh is a villager unless she is dramatically convincing in displaying her thought process when it's a lie.

Leelou is a villager always in this situation and is a vetted double voter now.

Eldrick is a villager because he hasn't outed himself yet.

Yates is maybe a villager but he's claimed VT so he's pretty much pigeonholed.

 

Taborline could be a wolf too and either way needs to die because she becomes a larger liability the longer the game goes on. Seph is another that you could probably swap in if I'm wrong about anyone above.

 

When/if Tayla comes back with a red check look at her last reads list. I'm willing to bet her entire team is listed in the null section. Inversely I believe Heart has most of them all in her greens. Food for thought. When/if? So you think I might not come back after day, interesting you might think I won't. I'm stating to think you are S/K Indy, if not wolfie.

 

I realize I'm probably getting gunned for tomorrow which is all good. If it takes me getting lynched to find wolves I am okay with that, town doesn't lose much and I'm fairly confident you will find all the wolves in my solve. Depending on how this Night goes and if I'm lynched the next Day town can't afford many other mistakes. Absolutely lynch from my pool of wolves after I am dead and proven innocent. - I have never liked this kind of offer to people, it's like a self vote, but you don't go that far so makes it more wolfie, it is used to confuse when youn do turn up wolfie

 

This is likely all you'll get from me for this weekend. I've got the kiddo today and a 5k race in the morning tomorrow. In between I'll be studying for finals that are coming next week and finishing up some assignments I owe.

 

Enjoy the 5km - wish I could do that but my knee is shot to pieces and seeing a specialist Monday...good luck!

 

Replying to Tayla's blue remarks here. I put them in spoilers to be easier on the eyes. Somehow the quote got all chopped up when I was editing so I'll have to go back and pull another version to finish the rest of the points I want to address.

 

1) I used that VC because it was the first one that I found when I was going back through the game. And to answer your question, no, I wasn't voting. I missed the DL being Saturday morning and what not for me.

 

2) The switch comes from having to adjust my sights as the game progresses and more info is revealed. D2 I felt good about you because it seemed we were on the same page on certain things and also disliked how pizza voted you for voting Krak in the manner he did. That said I read your ISOs just now and my read of you is mixed again. I don't want to give you too much credit for looking like you're genuinely hunting because mafia still has to find the other team regardless, but your posts were decent.

 

3) When/If applies to pretty much everyone in a mafia game. When/if you're peeked, when/if you die (whether by lynch or NK, doesn't matter), take your pick. The point I was making was that if you are a wolf I can see AH being a partner of your's because of how she has you listed in her reads.

 

4) Not sure what your point is there. I wasn't offering up some sort of deal, I'm telling it like it is lol. I flip scum never in this game and now I am going to try my best to piece together who I think are the scum as a collective body and then see that they start dying before this game get's out of reach for town to win.

 

 

[Andrej]

 

 

Regardless if you come back as town or mafia I don't expect you to change any reads.

I have you as the least of my suspects as I want to see what alot of Phoenix will do, as alot did not post that much.

 

 

Also alot of Phoenix is better than 2.0 I like it.

 

let's put it this way, if I had replaced in as mafia I would have subtly removed anyone that were actually on that team from my list. Since I'm still advocating my list 100% you can be sure that that is not the case. However, like I said I do want to pull up what Alot had to say see if there were any useable reads there. I'll get to that after a quick smoke.

 

People in your list might not be on your team, so you still could have replaced in as mafia. 

 

Thank you.

 

Yeah - my WIM is busted.  I think someone said it best that when a player replaces into game they bring their old prejudices back with them, and this is I feel the case.  I am our town bodyguard.  I guarded AJ N1 and Pizza last night.  Trying to go through and get an updated read list.

 

Clovdyx has Internet again!  Official Vote Count Two:

 

Hallia (4/9): Yates, Eternal Phoenix, Talya, TinaHel

Laine (1/9): Leelou

Thane (1/9): Hallia

 

Not Voting (18/19):

Sooh, Aiel Heart, Dice, Thane, Krak, Taborline, Andrej, Alannalynn, Seph, Cass, Pizza

 

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.  Deadline is at 12:15 PM on May 19th, 2015.

 

People don't look too great on the Hallia wagon right now.

 

What's up Yates, dude? I saw you only talk about one of the NKs. Your thoughts on that?

 

I'm gonna need to go back and read Alot and Tina over again. Alot would be in the lower part of my list mostly through POE and I don't really like EP emphasizing his reads over again as if it proves anything. Tina I am getting concerned about because she has become more quiet as the game goes on, which worries me. I'm curious now if I was actually correct D1 when I voted her.

 

 

This was @Laine:

 

so you agree on the points I make about Hallia and then say you have me as a scum read. Aren't thouse contradictory even in a multiball scenario?

 

Not if Laine is town and thinks you two are on opposing teams.

 

Think about it.

 

okay some weird stuff is happening right now can't quote can't get posts to go through right, but Hallia, why'd you choose AJ night 1?

 

also [unvote][v]Tina[/v]

 

Why Tina?

[Andrej]

[v]Taborline[/v]

 

Time to get talking.

[Yates]

What's up Yates, dude? I saw you only talk about one of the NKs. Your thoughts on that?

We only had 1 confirmed Townie? And he didn't have a PR [anymore]? That was a dumb kill. I couldn't care less about the Eldrick kill. He was a mislynch waiting to happen so thanks for the favor?

[Aiel Heart]

Response to Aj in 2476:

 

Forced post here imo. You were probably better off just not voting in this situation than trying to poorly justify why you were going to. You basically outed yourself by doing this.
 
Also could you explain why you have Krak in green here, but in the next post where you make an updated list with no posts from him in between, he has shifted back to null?

 

I admitted it before and I’ll admit it again: it was a rash mistake and I should have not voted. I will freely admit that. Please base reads based on actions from here on out.

Also, I stated in Krak’s little anecdote that before I had based more off of gut reads than anything else, and when I looked back at my notes on him, I don’t have enough there to justify a town read, thus he is back to null.


and then later on:

 

For some reason this post lost all the colors, but whatever. I can't decide whether the last line there is something you said because it's genuine paranoia or because at this point you want to remove fluid enough to jump onto any wagon after you very purposely 'look more closely' on said hypothetical lead wagon.
 
A CFD refers to a group of players all moving their vote together onto a new target, changing the lead wagon or starting up a new one. It can be pretty fun but creates a rather stressful/confusing/crazy EOD in hybrid games like this.
 
After reading this post over again, you used the word 'gut' to justify your reads exactly 9 times on about as many players. For someone who just subbed in and has read over the thread with fresh eyes I would think you'd be better able to explain your reads.
 
I also think your read on Tayla implicates you if she's a wolf. The little bit about 'may need to ISO her later' even though you have her in your town reads is a give away imo.

 

It’s a paranoia thing. I trust no one to be town. If I think someone is townie I consider that they might be tricking me into it somehow and I need to look at them closer. Especially if it’s Mynd. But he’s not in this game.

Someone who just subbed into the game and had to catch up on ~50 pages immediately does not have “fresh eyes” by the time they catch up. I read all of that in such a blur that particular moments stick out, but most of it is feelings based off of the vague memories I have. You guys are lucky. You’ve been following the game all along, have had more breaks along the way to think on it and comprehend it, and have had time to go back and do rereads if you so choose.
Right now, I have a vague picture and I will fill you guys in with the details as I find them; I do plan to go back and ISO all of my nulls and towns. I will also share why my views of Verbal and Pizza changed



Moving on I find it interesting that so many people are seeming to take Pizza’s claim at face value now. It just feels like “off the wall scheme to stay alive” to me.

2477 is interesting to me. Andrej probably could figure out the game mechanics and the connection to Talya could be a good one, but it also kind of reads as if he knows too much and is trying to pin this knowledge on somebody on the other team

@ Alanna in post 2481—something about this post overall bugs me and I can’t quite put my finger on why. A lot of it is going along with what other people have said. You make a comment with content that I had already responded to, which you apparently didn’t read, and then you accuse Eldrick of skimming right after.

I agree with a lot of what Talya says in 2499…

I’m having less confidence in Sooh because she is seeming to have less confidence in herself.

Alot saying he’d have himself as scum…

Thane in 2525 feels kind of forced to me…

2533 Firebird is pulling one of those things where he goes “look at how I’m being consistent”—can do as town too but it always feels like it’s trying to hard for me

Again I like Talya’s post on Sooh at 2534, though I did not see the same things the first time though—will be interesting to compare when I do my own ISO—will also be interesting to compare that to the content in the dice/Sooh interaction on page 129
GRR TALYA stop making me like your posts!
 

 

 

I was planning on doing ISOs tonight, but right now my head is absolutely pounding and I'm not going to be able to think critically. Going to wait and vote once I do those. 

[Andrej]

 

What's up Yates, dude? I saw you only talk about one of the NKs. Your thoughts on that?

 

We only had 1 confirmed Townie? And he didn't have a PR [anymore]? That was a dumb kill. I couldn't care less about the Eldrick kill. He was a mislynch waiting to happen so thanks for the favor?

 

Okay. Do you believe Hallia's claim?

 

Who are the wolves?

[Aiel Heart]

Yikes that ended up being long. Sorry!

 

 

Though it's better than the WoTs I used to post XD 

[Andrej]

Heart, look here and see for yourself. This is a rather large list of various Multiball set-ups I found on the Wiki when I was doing some research to have a better idea of what to expect.

 

If you look at most, you'll see that the scum ration is typically higher than 25% (the usual for standard games) because of the high density of anti-town players that need to be balanced since they are also fighting each other. Around ~33% is the common trend I found, and seeing as how this is a 24p game: 33% of 24 is 8. Divide split that and you get two groups of four.

 

It's just math, really.

 

But - with this fresh in mind and seeing the way Tayla's reads were formatted and what the reads were based on (looking for connections to her scum read) it jumped out at me.

[Andrej]

My reads as of now: 

 

Tina

EP

Thane

Hallia

AJ

Krak

Eldrick

 

Yates 2.0

Pizza

Batass

Leelou

 

Taborline

Alot

 

Talya

Laine

Seph

Dice

 

 

 

Blue are my town reads for now. Green are my "more town than not" list. Black are nulls and red are scum. 

 

I know there are wrong reads in there, because my scum pile is too small, but that's where I stand right now.

 

Speaking of the Rule of 4s.

 

 

Here's the other quote that I wanted to respond to earlier but got screwed up somehow while I was editing it.

 

 

 

 

 

-snip-

 

He had intimated he had a peek on me. I knew he couldn't have as he would have got town. It is now mute because he has said who had viewed.

 

I'm on phone and tried to snip this so not sure how it will go

 

Wrong.

 

Pizza never said he had peeked you as a wolf. He was basing his suspicion on you based on your vote of Krak. - Actually at the beginning he did, after he claimed he said that is was because I voted for someone he thought was town

 

 

 

[v]Krak[/v] for now.

 

I definitely don't mind seeing a wagon here and maybe now he'll come in and actually support his stances.

 

I've got to run again but I should have a bit of time when class is done before work this afternoon. See you guys then

 

he didn't vote for him before, but now that someone else has, he jumps on and wants to see a wagon there.

 

This is a bad attempt to put suspicion on me and it's a tactic I see scum use fairly often. In fact, I literally caught a wolf in my last game for using this exact same reasoning to vote someone. At this point others (including yourself) had voted Krak and if he wasn't going to come back and engage me then I was perfectly fine seeing him swing.

 

I saw it as delaying tactics, not wanting to the first to vote and hide in secon/thrid place, and having breadcrumbed before on where you wanted to vote, seen this as maffia as well.

 

 

Luckily for you guys, I'm off work and have a few hours at school where I can use a desktop versus having to play strictly from my phone.

I'm probably lynching Pizza here barring some sort of claim on his part.

 

Said he is going for Pizza unless he claims something. soft push for a claim, but with the choice between Verb and Pizza, something was bound to happen.

 

What is your point here? The gladiator lynch basically came down to who claimed what. My suspicion on Pizza at this point before his claim was pretty high considering his defense of one of my scum reads, his attacks on me, and the way he voted Verbal who I was town reading. Essentially, without that claim, I would've definitely vouched for his lynch over Verb.

- Here you say you will vote pizza unless he claims something, later you say that he shouldn't claim, inconsistant (I think you were agreeing to someone on the second part)

 

Lets try a list

 *List snipped*

The way you've formatted your reads here makes me think that you are only looking for scum outside of your team. For one, your number of actual reds is very few when at this point in the game the number of wolves and villagers are nearly equal. Your town reads are easy, your nulls are probably all teammates imo, the oranges are a mixture of people that that I think are scum with a sprinkle of 'back up' villagers to lynch and your reds are players that I think you think are connected to me somehow; which basically gives away that you're only looking to piece together the other team and not find all the wolves collectively regardless of who they may be partners with.

 

So my so called team are all the ones that haven't been on much and not posted, I would be one seriously Peed off Wolfie if I had that team. - I don't have a team, so am looking for both teams. The Null, are obviously the very low posters and yet you try to grasp at straws at that point. If I was wolfie, I would have put them all over the place anyway!

 

I agree my town reads are easy, there are the ones I think have something other than just my opnion added in, I would't ever say that someone was fully townie unless I had viewed them. To me they are closest to that 100% at present.

 

Something else you said about there being 4 wolfies on each team and that's why I have got 4 people there, how do you know there are 4 people there? most people have said aboout 2 teams of 3, so this is a bit specific. sounds like you have just made a slip.  

 

 

 

 

1) Can you show me where Pizza did that? I don't remember it at all. The only peeks I remember him talking about before actually claiming was his 'secret wolf' read on Verb.

 

2) The only thing I was delaying was my pre-judgement on Krak for voting me in the manner he did. I gave him a day and some change to respond, which he never did, and seeing as how it was his wagon and I think Leelou at the time as the other, I voted his.

 

3.1) Just because your team could be lurkers and that would annoy you doesn't make it unrealistic. As you can see, lots of townies have been dying during the Day so the scum haven't really had to do much I think. Let the loud players argue while they sit back and let the numbers dwindle. In a game like this scum don't even have to vote to gain majority, so that's even less motive to put themselves out there. You telling me how you'd list your partners as a wolf means little to me, for the record. Meta arguments made by said person should always be taken with a grain of salt. I mean, it's not hard to say what you wouldn't do as scum as you do it, right?

 

3.2) Check out the link I sent Aiel Heart a second ago. After seeing the roles/claims, etc I wanted to get a better understanding of what to expect in the game so I did some research on multiball set ups to try and maybe get a better picture. 2 teams of 3 is too small, I think, for a mafia team playing against another AND a town of this size with some of the considerable town PRs we've seen flip / had claimed. Also - I look like I slipped because I say four, but people that say three haven't? Double standard.

[Thane Vakarian]

So, if i get things right, this is the situation right now, purely black and white.. or, blue and orange.

 

1. Hally claimed bodyguard

7. Thane town
8. Verbal - Beorn, Town 2x Gladiator Lynched Day Two
10. Eldrick - Tar Atanamir, Town Vanilla Killed Night Two
11. Leelou doublevoter
12. Sili - Beren, Town Vanilla Modkilled Day Two
13. Krak cleared by pizza
17. Tress - Tulkas, Town Vanilla Killed Night One
18. Zander - Elu Thingol, Town Mason Killed Night One
20. Eternal Phoenix - Finwe, Town Mason Killed Night Two
22. Yates - Faramir, Town Forensic Investigator Lynched Day One
24. Pizzaguy claim JOAT

 

2. Sooh - mentored by Corn
3. Alot Eternal Phoenix 2.0
4. Alanna Aiel Heart
5. Dice
6. John Snow Yates 2.0d

9. Talya

14. Taborline
15. Andrej
16. Alannalynn

19. seph - mentored by Kaylee

21. TinaHel

23. Cass

 

If we look at the bottom 12, and the recent discussion about how many wolves, then 2/3 of it are wolves. 

 

[v]Taborline[/v]

 

Slacking wolf.

[Andrej]

Thane I love how you just cut the game in half and colored everyone orange

[Thane Vakarian]

rule number one in mafia: trust nobody

[Andrej]

Don't talk about Fight Club.

[Andrej]

2. Sooh - mentored by Corn

3. Alot Eternal Phoenix 2.0

4. Alanna Aiel Heart

5. Dice

6. John Snow Yates 2.0d

9. Talya

14. Taborline

15. Andrej

16. Alannalynn

19. seph - mentored by Kaylee

21. TinaHel

23. Cass

 

If we look at the bottom 12, and the recent discussion about how many wolves, then 2/3 of it are wolves.

 

If I had to rank these I'm not really sure where I'd start.

 

I would put Yates/Dice at the top closer to light green.

 

Tina would be orange, but I want to look at her again because she's been sorta quiet lately and that sketches me out. Her Hallia vote looks worse too.

I would probably put Tayla here as well because her recent posts have been really good but I am still a little wary of her when I think about her interactions D2 with Pizza's claims in mind.

 

Moving down to brick red(brown?) I would list Alot of Phoenix, Seph and Cass here. Alot I need to go back and read again and I'm interested in EP's thoughts on Tina whenever he gets back now that he moved his vote over. Seph had some heat D1 even though I felt okay about but he's either busy or just not contributing anymore. He's one that might need to be revisited soon. Cass I am a little wary of because of the points she seems to be focusing on and her overall absence throughout the thread, but I don't want to condemn her just for being busy. Manbat gave me some villager vibes D1 but that was a while back. Another one that should be figured out sooner than later. Sooh rounds out this category for her lack of read progression. She is doubling down on her Dice read which hasn't changed since D1(?) and I also think she could fall into my Rule of 4s theory.

 

Red/Brick red section would be the rest. Taborline is going to be considering wolf until proven otherwise as far as I'm concerned at this point. I'm still sketched out by all of AH's 'gut and feels' reads at this point. I think is she's a wolf there's probably some good spew to find there as to who her partners are. Laine is here because I don't like the way she is picking up Cass's argument and sort of running with it, making it seem like I was trying to stop all convo when really I was just saying that the tinfoil hat stuff was starting to sound fake, and because she's one I feel has been focusing on strange topics instead of engaging into the bigger discussions.

 

TDRL

 

Dice

Yates

 

Tina

Tayla

 

Alot of Phoenix

Seph

Cass

Sooh

 

Laine

Aiel Heart

Taborline

[Thane Vakarian]

i'm having some difficulties too ranking those.. especially since it's 6am, i am at work since 5:00, meaning i got up at 3:30 .... i need some more coffee... 

[Andrej]

TDRL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Andrej]

i'm having some difficulties too ranking those.. especially since it's 6am, i am at work since 5:00, meaning i got up at 3:30 .... i need some more coffee... 

 

Yeah I didn't realize I hadn't deleted that lol. I typed it while I was thinking of where I would put everyone just to sort of start getting words out so maybe my thoughts would flow

[Thane Vakarian]

god i hate monday morning.....

[Thane Vakarian]

Ofcourse, we'll have to see if Hallia's claim is true, and if there's no CC... But for now, i wouldn't touch the blue list i posted. 

[Andrej]

It seems to fit having a nerfed protection role considering the investigator was bullet proof. I'm willing to believe it now and table her until we reconcile some a lot of those other players first.

[Sooh]

Look. I'm TRYING to help town the best way I can, which is by pointing out people I find scummy. I'm aware that a bunch of my reads haven't changed, but that's because I still see people the same way. I'll try to do a better job of explaining myself, but I can't promise grand multiquote posts and stuff, because I have simply too much to do IRL at the moment. 

 

I'm not convinced Hallia is scum, but I'm willing to be talked into it. Same with Heart or Taborline. Tina I'm happy with as Town. 

[Thane Vakarian]

i would give her benefit of the doubt for the moment, untill new elements show up. Heart, i'm not sure, but i think we can get rid of Tabor. 

[Hallia]

Going through my reread, I'm still suspicious of Sooh, and I almost get the feel from EP 2.0 and Talya that they could be a team.  Their posts seem in tandem.

 

 

Unvote

[Hallia]

Look. I'm TRYING to help town the best way I can, which is by pointing out people I find scummy. I'm aware that a bunch of my reads haven't changed, but that's because I still see people the same way. I'll try to do a better job of explaining myself, but I can't promise grand multiquote posts and stuff, because I have simply too much to do IRL at the moment. 

 

I'm not convinced Hallia is scum, but I'm willing to be talked into it. Same with Heart or Taborline. Tina I'm happy with as Town. 

 

Wha?

 

Vote: Sooh

[Sooh]

 

Look. I'm TRYING to help town the best way I can, which is by pointing out people I find scummy. I'm aware that a bunch of my reads haven't changed, but that's because I still see people the same way. I'll try to do a better job of explaining myself, but I can't promise grand multiquote posts and stuff, because I have simply too much to do IRL at the moment. 

 

I'm not convinced Hallia is scum, but I'm willing to be talked into it. Same with Heart or Taborline. Tina I'm happy with as Town. 

 

Wha?

 

Vote: Sooh

 

Yeah... if someone can convince me you're scum, why not? I'm not convinced at the moment.