Werewolf Game: Extreme Version

[Sirayn]

Yes, I noticed earlier that you seemed to have a strange and possibly psychic knowledge of how her role works, Zy. :P You're absolutely wrong in saying that it's harmless, but I'm glad you commented because it's helped me to figure out exactly how wrong you are.

 

Have you noticed how she doesn't follow every vote? She only has to follow the most recent vote? Yes? That makes her vote bad for the following reasons.

 

1. She can disclaim all responsibility for her vote. I didn't mean to axe that innocent! My role made me do it!

2. She doesn't ever have to vote for her evil partner(s) because she can just wait for somebody to place a different vote and follow that instead.

3. She gives the evil team an additional vote in the endgame. I'm not going to give the evil team a step-by-step plan on how to use her vote as an addition to their voting block but I imagine everyone can see it anyway.

 

So don't believe for a moment that the evil team can't plan and carry out a strategy making use of her sticky vote whether she's in the evil team or not. At the moment she's a loose cannon. In the endgame she'll be basically an additional evil player if the evil team play their cards right.

 

In a nutshell, let's lynch her.

[Zylazlo-]

I think I just realized something as well, what if she doesn't have a role? What if she's just doing it to avoid responsibility for her actions? I'm assuming she had a role for it because I mean... doing it without a role just seems very bizarre... but smart as hell. And not to mention a role like that hardly seems evil, therefore she would be an innocent... so maybe she is evil!

 

Alright let's get down with our bad selves. I vote Danya, cause she's being to sly for her own good.

[Sirayn]

I think that's the six - Raena, Kison, Tessa, MsDanya, Sirayn, Zylazlo-. So that's done and dusted.

 

On the theme of lynching people if other people turn up guilty, Zylazlo-, you two really should not have done this and this if you're evil partners. I missed that on my first read through but it's an excellent example of what I described above - how to use MsDanya's sticky vote to protect her when you're both evil. :P

[MsDanya]

thats so not fair!! all I have to do is vote for the person that was last voted for!! that was why I voted Kison the first round, and sorry Sira but I am not up 27 hours a day to follow every single vote thats placed here! I cant see how that makes me evil! its not certain that my vote will have any change in a vote later in a game, jsut make sure that you vote enough before I get a chance to vote and that problem will be out of the way! or you can lead me in any direction you want to, making me even vote for my own lynch! :x

 

and you are all so silly.. I'm not being sly, I'm doing what my role says I have to do, easy as taht *nods*

[Sirayn]

Take it easy. :? You don't have to follow the game 24-7 to be innocent, I haven't said anything remotely like that and you know it. What I said is that your vote is easily manipulated by the evil team even if you're innocent yourself - you say yourself that "you can lead me in any direction you want to, making me even vote for my own lynch", so I assume you agree with me. Your role is a liability to the innocent team so you need to be lynched.

[Raena]

Well, even if you aren't evil, your role can be used by the evils.

[Talya]

Danya if you're innocent I do feel sorry for you...I think you given a rough deal...but as has been pointed out you could well be used by the evils. If you are evil...then I'll be glad :D

[SBoydW]

Raena- 1 Vote (Sirayn)

MsDanya- 4 Vote (MsDanya, Raena, Kison, Tessa Sedai)

Kison- 1 Vote (Zylazlo)

 

10 player 6 to lynch.

 

The day is extended due to voter progress.

[the dude]

that's an odd role, isn't it? can't wait to see what some of the others are...

[Talya]

Oh great Mod in the sky I believe you have forgotten Zy and Sirayn who have changed their votes to Danya...making it 6 already.

[SBoydW]

Holy crap I can't count. This just isn't my week.

 

Ms Danya -6 votes (Raena, Kison, Tessa, MsDanya, Sirayn, Zylazlo)

 

Yes with the 6 wotes required Danya is hung from the gallows at sunset. She was innocent.

 

Night falls night actions.

[SBoydW]

( And now I leave to do all the wonderful things that are going to distract me further... see ya'll tommorow )

[the dude]

looks like we only get innocent/guilty rulings, no roles... this could make it tougher.

[Kison]

Blast!

[loki redfern]

i miss all the fun, not fair

[Johnny-Solstice]

*floats around.* (in a wail) schooool killled meeeee. stuuupiidd maaaatthh. waaaaaaaa. :(

[SBoydW]

The sun rises on day three. 'Tis a beautiful morning. Birds singing, not a cloud in the sky.

 

No deaths during the night.

 

9 Players 5 to lynch.

[Kison]

I take it the "mafia" are vacationing.

[x3tscout]

they went on a safari to africa during these cold months

[Talya]

Well the angel may have saved the people they were trying to kill...which seems odd for two nights in a row. This assumes that the angel saves themselves each night until a finder shows up. But that would mean the evil team tried to kill the same person on two nights in a row. Taht or something very odd is going on. Or we have a bullet proof...saved themselves and an Angel saved themselves on another night....making it very unlucky for the evils and Lucky for us. What would be the odds of that happening....being not very good a maths will not even attempt to try.

[Sirayn]

:? Interesting. Time to break out some analysis!

 

12 players. Under a basic 25-50-25 distribution we'll assume that 3 are evil, 6 are roleless innocents and 3 have good roles. That's not certain by any means but it's a good rule of thumb. It doesn't make sense to have two kill-blocking roles in the same game; it's more likely that we have a finder, a healer and a vigilante or something along those lines. What are the odds that a single healer who can protect themselves can entirely at random block a kill on two consecutive nights?

 

Night One: 7 innocents = 0.14

Night Two: 6 innocents = 0.17

Both nights: 0.14 * 0.17 = 0.0238 = 2.38%

 

I stress again that this requires the heal choice to be entirely random and we know that's not so - some people are more likely to be targeted than others, plus there's the possibility that the healer saved somebody the first night and, realising they had to be innocent, healed them again the second night and the mafia aren't very smart - but in the current state of play, with no revealed finder, I think it's fair to take 2.38% as a ballpark figure for how probable this situation is.

 

What does this mean? It means that, discarding the possibility that the mafia consistently fail to get their kills in before night ends, we can choose from many, many vastly improbable scenarios!

 

Kill blocked scenarios:

- Two healers.

- A healer and a guard.

- Two guards.

- A healer or a guard and a bulletproof.

- Many bulletproofs.

 

Kill never existed scenarios:

- Evil team with limited kills.

- Several evil teams with limited kills.

- Daytime kills so no night kills to keep the death rate down. PS: This means NINJA TIME.

- Sympathetic kills. Like killing a lover where you get two for the price of one. Night kills restricted.

 

Mad scenarios:

- There is no evil team.

 

Like the look of any of those? One thing's for certain, I'm glad I drew the long straw and got to be an innocent this game. If the evil team can't get their one kill a night in they're going to be slaughtered. :roll:

[Zylazlo-]

This is an extreme game... maybe there is no spoon... I mean evil team. :oops: Or maybe theres a special situation which permits night kill, like no lynching during that day which would be ridiculous but I'm just bored this early in the morning gotta put the BS out there.

 

Or maybe the evil team wants to create random havoc by saving night kills all together and just lynch OR maybe there's just one killer and they can't actually kill.

[Sirayn]

Conditional night kills? Oh man. :cry: This is getting complicated.

[the dude]

i find that i can bear the villain's apparent troubles with great fortitude. 8)

[Sirayn]

Updated player list:

 

1.Sirayn

2.Raena

3.Zylazlo

4.Tessa Sedai

5.the dude

6.x3scout

7.Dark Justice

8.Kison

9.Loki

 

Thinking about who I'd like to lynch next.