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[Advanced] The Scouring of the Shire - Game Over


Nolder

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Posted

Day 2 thoughts:

 

Yates makes a good point which does make me question my new town read on Arsis a little, and that's his voting Yates for claiming, which is contradictory to what he said about treating claims as null and basing his votes purely on game play. He explains it later by saying he disbelieved Yates' claim more because it was made under no pressure but.... eh. It's kind of weak. It doesn't follow with what he says about ignoring claims, because he's not doing that here, so now his claim (lol) about ignoring claims looks like he was just trying to cover for why he didn't vote Sili.

 

IDK. I think I'm going to have a hard time deciding between Krak and Arsis. I don't think I've seen Arsis as scum before, and I just feel like he would be...craftier as scum. He's made a lot of clumsy slips if he really is scum.

 

My initial read on Wombat before starting my reread was pretty null, which concerned me a little, because I tend to townread him from early on, so the fact that I wasn't made me wonder. Day 2 he made a couple of posts that really jived with the way I was thinking at the time, in terms of Pral and Krak, but I also think he'd be worth taking a second look at if Krak flips scum. 

 

Pretty much all of Crusher's thoughts continued to jive with mine. Probably my strongest town read at the moment. Followed by Yates. 

 

Krak says he has reasons for bringing up the mechanics speculation about Grima. I remember seeing this earlier and deciding not to question it in case he was some kind of townie PR and that somehow fit behind his reason. But... I can't think of a reason here that makes sense, so his lack of explanation is more just frustrating than anything else now. 

 

More thoughts to come, continuing with Night 2/Day 3.

Posted

You gave Tina an out when she had Red full on bulldogging her.

What does "side bar discussion" mean to you? The operative term here is "side bar" ftr.
Posted

All caught up now.

 

 

It looks like he is ready to vote just anyone.

I can't tell if this is scum driven or disinterested Town, though. My biggest concern at this point is Arsis basically "forgetting" who was instrumental in the Day 1 lynch that netted scum. Sure, there is likely a hint of OMGUS informing my vote as well but overall his "gut" has been wrong about me, wrong about Sili, wrong about Pral, and wrong about Red. His statement that he could vote Crusher or Wombat earlier likely makes him 0 for 6. That is abysmal for Arsis, who typically pays better attention to the game.

 

 

This is how I feel about Arsis right now. What he says at the start of the day about there not being much to go off reads like a frustrated/disinterested townie to me. Disinterested because, well, I think there is more to go off than he thinks. His jumping onto Yates' point about the voting patterns could go either to me. Could be that he's scum and sees that he's not getting anywhere with Yates, so he jumped at the chance to hook onto other suspects. Or could be he's town and jumped at the chance for other suspects because he was too lazy to do so on his own.

 

Zashara's D1 looks to me like either a failed late bus or an orchestrated double-move trying to kill Sili's train.  Her D2 actually looks ok, but I don't get the Krak stuff.  Her D3 push on Arsis is bad imo.

 

I feel like Alanna should have come up with a post that has me nodding my head vigorously by now.

 

I think I mentioned this a little earlier, but I still don't get this. Zashara's vote seems very unlikely a bus vote to me, because Sili and Yates were tied with 2 votes. On top of that, Zashara had said basically nothing at that point, so it wouldn't have been too hard for her to make up a reason to vote Yates instead, at that point. Especially since most of us have never played with her before. 

 

That said, I'm not sure I liked her exchange with Arsis here, either. A vote for her isn't on the table for me today, though.

Posted

For some reason, I thought we had Krak and Arsis as competing trains at the moment, but I don't believe anyone is voting Krak right now. However, I'm leaning more towards him over Arsis, and since we have time and another vote on Arsis would hammer him, I will [v]Krak[/v]. His recent posts didn't really do anything for me. Seems like he just picked a few things out here and there that really weren't very helpful.

Posted

I mean, if you really want to, but I personally hate it when people self-hammer.

 

Of course, if you're scum, by all means, please do.

Posted

ok.  Went back and read some of the earlier stuff.  Did notice that both people that died had called Arsis out for scum.  Then died.  Could be a set up but Arsis has played scummy enough it makes more sense his scum team would do this than a scum team set him up.  Plus his lynch would by far give the most information.  Bout everyone in the game has had a n opinion on him.

 

vote Arsis

Hey Crusher Verbal did this thing where if you put v tags around something it automatically turns bold red.

[v]Crusher[/v]

Would be bold red and say Vote: Crusher. No need to work extra hard only to have DM fail and take away your color. I'm sure that's what happened since it does it to me all the time and it's annoying as hell. Dunno why it shows color when you're making the post but when it's posted it just goes to black.

 

Anyway I'm gonna count this vote but use the vote tags next time they're really convenient actually.

Posted

Votecount

Arsis - Yates, Tina, Zashara, Crusher (4)

Zashara - Arsis, Wombat (2)

Alanna - Krak (1)

Krak - Alanna (1)

 

 

 

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch. 

Deadline: Thursday, 9PM PST

 

 

Posted

Ok did not read everything yet because at i was at JN talking about the Patriots deflated balls all day.  I do have thoughts.  I will read and share tomorrow when I have my coffee.  I love you all.  

 

I want to hate you for this but then you said you loved me =S

 

 

ok.  Went back and read some of the earlier stuff.  Did notice that both people that died had called Arsis out for scum.  Then died.  Could be a set up but Arsis has played scummy enough it makes more sense his scum team would do this than a scum team set him up.  Plus his lynch would by far give the most information.  Bout everyone in the game has had a n opinion on him.

 

vote Arsis

 

Decent point.  I don't think frame kills are as common on DM as they used to be.

 

 

 

 

I´m not saying he is town or mafia because of it. I´m saying that it means nothing to me.

Side bar discussion: gun to the head [because it may be for all you know], am I Town or Scum? Forget my claim for a minute. Look at my play and the current game state and make a snap judgment.

 

I dislike Yates trying to make the conversation all about him.

 

 

He also gives Tina an out, allowing her to regain her footing.

 

 

This post makes no sense to me.  It was obviously an aside and looks mroe to me like Yates trying to get a read on Tina.

 

 

 

I think it's likely the mafia were on Yates or inactive on D1.  Of course, most of the game was inactive so that doesn't necessarily mean much.  I'd say I favor a Pral lynch today as I thought his Krak vote was kinda crappy on D1 and I haven't liked his posts since.  As for the people who voted Yates, I would say I'm null on Arsis and have a town lean on Krak.  I didn't particularly like Krak's 3rd party spec thing, but I thought it could be a clumsy game start attempt and I liked a lot of the rest of his content.  Now Krak says he had reasons, so idk what to think of that.  FWIW Krak, I think that flavor-wise, your theory would make sense, but I don't really see 3rd party speculation as pro-town this early.  Regarding Arsis, he's been erratic, irascible, and makes very little sense to me so far, which is pretty much how he has behaved in every game I've played with him, so I'd say he's null at this point.  I don't like his vote on Yates, but I could totally see him doing it as town.

 

[v]Pral[/v]

I'm going to bring this up again and I might pay for it dearly, but I more or less misspoke in my original post on the matter. What I wanted to say was alternate win scenario.

 

 

So something like a Lyncher but not as confining?  I could see that.  Not really important atm though.

 

 

I feel that nudging/waffling/looking from opposite angles is not uncommon for me, regardless of alignment. Especially when I'm only giving scant attention to the game, which, unfortunately, I was at the time.

 

This is true.  One of Alanna's strengths as town is that she keeps an open mind.  As scum, a similar style allows her to remain flexible.

 

 

 

More than I've done today, yes. I'm conflicted on you. Hence my question. I don't understand why you have been pushing on Yates since very near the beginning. Meta-wise, he is null to me atm. Circumstance-wise, he is town imo given that he was the main competing train to Sili.

You don't think there's a chance that Yates was attempting to get lynched in Sili's stead? Or that scum decided just to let it be a toss-up?

 

 

I think those possibilities are unlikely given Yates' pseudo soft-claim.

Posted

 

 

Zashara's D1 looks to me like either a failed late bus or an orchestrated double-move trying to kill Sili's train.  Her D2 actually looks ok, but I don't get the Krak stuff.  Her D3 push on Arsis is bad imo.

 

I feel like Alanna should have come up with a post that has me nodding my head vigorously by now.

 

This is definitely a possibility.

 

 

I don't get this. Sili was tied with someone (can't remember who) at 2 votes when Zashara voted. Why would she bus? Unless they were trying to pull something like a Kivam gambit, but I don't see Sili agreeing to that. He didn't want to do any bus gambits with me when we were mafia together, even though I kept pushing it.

 

 

If a scum is one of the competing trains at the end of any day, that looks like a potential bus scenario to me.  Doesn't mean it happened, but the possibility should definitely be considered imo.

Posted

 

 

 

Zashara's D1 looks to me like either a failed late bus or an orchestrated double-move trying to kill Sili's train.  Her D2 actually looks ok, but I don't get the Krak stuff.  Her D3 push on Arsis is bad imo.

 

I feel like Alanna should have come up with a post that has me nodding my head vigorously by now.

 

This is definitely a possibility.

 

 

I don't get this. Sili was tied with someone (can't remember who) at 2 votes when Zashara voted. Why would she bus? Unless they were trying to pull something like a Kivam gambit, but I don't see Sili agreeing to that. He didn't want to do any bus gambits with me when we were mafia together, even though I kept pushing it.

 

 

If a scum is one of the competing trains at the end of any day, that looks like a potential bus scenario to me.  Doesn't mean it happened, but the possibility should definitely be considered imo.

 

 

I suppose. Just having played with Sili as scum, I don't think he would have gone for it. Unless it was done without consulting him, which is possible.

Posted

Well, having played with Sili as town, I've seen him get pretty apathetic when he gets run up.  Idk if it would manifest as scum though.  Doesn't look like Zash is getting lynched today anyway.

Posted

 

 

Am I l1? Self hammering would be in bad taste?

 

Yes. unvote

 

Hahahaha

I wasn't going to actually do it. I was just making a joke. :)

Posted

He was against both busing me and being bused in the Marlfox game. Doesn't mean he wouldn't try something new, I suppose.

 

I didn't like Zashara's exchange with Arsis earlier, but I'd much rather lynch Krak or Arsis today. I feel more strongly about both of them, and we'll get better information from a lynch on one of them.

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