Jump to content

DRAGONMOUNT

A WHEEL OF TIME COMMUNITY

[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread


Tommyrod

Recommended Posts

Posted
  On 11/13/2014 at 6:32 PM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 5:53 PM, Cass said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 4:37 PM, Kivam said:

Cass, you say you're caught up, but haven't reacted at all to my post responding to your questions that you said you really wanted answered.  That seems ... inconsistent with your other play in this thread.  What's up?

 

 

Kiv I missed this til now. I don't think I've even seen the post you're referring to. Hold up.

 

But if you're still here. What's your current take on me and DPR based on our most recent interactions?

 

 

heh.  Welcome to my life.

 

Re Wes - I'm with Wombat and Barm, both players who have played with Wes a lot.  (They call his play scummy; I call it townsided, because it's genuinely his play when town and I've seen it absolutely crush, though when he's scum that makes an excellent cover).  I completely understand why a player without history on Wes would read it as dodgy, but he's too good a player and too useful an asset to throw out on a Day 1 gut-call.  And for all the reads, suspicions, and evidence, it's vitally important to remember that is all Day 1 is - without confirmed alignments on multiple players, it's really hard to form judgments on anyone with any certainty.  I listed 5 players as highest on my suspicion list, because of their interactions and play, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if none of them are scum, because these are Day 1 suspicions. 

 

That's why information lynching (sorry, Yates, I've got to) is so important on Day 1.  Some people treat Day 1 as a throw away because it's all guesswork, which is a disaster; all that gets you is a Day 2 with little information more than you started Day 1 with.  Thankfully, that hasn't been the play this game - although Stelio was nodding towards it a bit and Hallia's total absence is scary but might be attributable to "it's just Day 1" error.  Others treat Day 1 the same as an endgame scumhunt, tunneling on or bulldogging their favorite "reads" and hunches as though they were supported by evidence rather than supposition.  That's just as much a disaster, because the odds of those reads being right is vanishingly small, and it leaves the town with less information than there should have been.  The town's biggest advantage is numbers, which means we can afford and profit from an early mislynch if it leads to a better chance for the town to win long term.

 

Getting back to Wes - as I said, he's a null read to me.  Sentimentally, I don't want him dead D1 in my first game in 2 years.  And logically, I don't want him dead D1 because if he's actually town, he can be a huge help in a town win.  So do I trust him?  You know the answer to that.  But will I lynch him today?  Absolutely not.

 

 

 

This sucks and stinks of Scum.

 

But, because I think you're playing as Scum - I respect that.

  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Posted

Perhaps.  I definitely think it would be nice to put a bit of pressure there.  He isn't good at reacting to it as scum.

Posted

I love you too Darthe.

 

Are you scum?

 

 

 

 

and also 

 

@DICE!!!!! Leelou has a point

 

Would you please, on a whim if you honestly have nothing else, change your vote to DPR?

I don't know what to make of you at the moment. Hearing your thoughts on this may help. Stop being so potentially SK/Scummy quiet. Please.

Posted
  On 11/11/2014 at 7:03 PM, Darthe said:

DPR

Wombat

AJ

Deslami

Dice 

Thane

 

 

 

Verbacle

Yates

 

Pretty much where I stand atm.  Everyone left out I'm back and forth on or have light reads.  I think I have a pretty solid town core and am generally better at townhunting than scumhunting anyways.

 

OK Darthe,:

 

1) What made Dice villagery when you posted this (which, to be fair, was two days ago, although at the time you posted this he had all of nine posts and it was early Tuesday afternoon) and wolfy now?

2) Isn't the time to apply pressure and bring up his lack of posting sometime BEFORE he says "I have to go to work now" and not immediately after?

Posted

Mod Announcement:

 

Day 1 ends in just over 6 hours.

 

The thread will be LOCKED for Night, which is 10 hours long.

 

Since I do not have mod powers here, that means you are responsible for not posting after EOD.

 

Votes made on :00 are good; :01 bad.

 

Do not post after 9:00 PM EDT. I will forgive posting at 9:01, but a post at 9:02 will give you a chance to be modkilled.

 

Thanks for reading.

Posted

Cass - if it helps D&D here on Dragonmount is the Debates & Discussions board :laugh:

 

Re Wes - I answered you on this earlier.  The plays you're reading as scummy are typical of him as town.  Can't explain why without destroying whatever effectiveness they might otherwise have, but I'll make the same comment to you that I made to Des earlier: Wombat and Barm said the exact same thing I am.  Leelou too, if I remember correctly.  So unless you're positing a scum team of Me, Wes, Wombat and VerBarm, plus if my memory is correct Leelou (which would be five wolves, so not just improbable but impossible), the only conclusion that can be drawn is that at least one town player is telling you that Wes' play is not indicative (for him) of an anti-town alignment.  And since at least one townie has confirmed it, you know for a fact it is not a lie (since a town player would never lie about that). 

 

Now, working from the assumption that his play is not out of character for Wes as town, why in the world would I toss a D1 vote on him?  The entire basis for your "DPR is scum" theory is his play seems like something he wouldn't do as town, which to me (and apparently anyone who knows him as a mafia player) it hasn't been.  So no, I'm not voting Wes D1 for all the reasons I said before: I don't want to on a personal level, and see no logical reason on a game level.  You're right that the personal level wouldn't matter to me at all if I saw an in-game reason to join a lynch on him ... but I don't.

 

Re "surviving for a while," I can't remember a game that I survived past Day 3 as scum.  I'm not a skate-by type player - my motto as scum is "win spectacularly or die trying" - so I tend to get viewed early by the cop.  Unless I'm a godfather in a particular scum game (which would be almost unfair :baalzamon:), I plan accordingly.  

 

Re "where I was in the recap" - no kidding, I'd read your posts, and commented on them outside the recaps.  But my recaps are recaps, pure and simple.  I don't go outside the page except in deductive terms (I think you'll see in one of my recaps where I came across one of your later, pre-content posts, I mentioned that you followed through on your promise to post content).  So there wasn't/isn't going to be anything about you in a recap until I get up to the relevant page.   Sorry.

 

Last thing, re "sultry nights", it's an inside joke from games past.  For instance, search the term in this game I ran back in 2010.  http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/45705-shadow-over-fiddlesmouth-game-thread-game-over-town-wins/

Posted
  On 11/13/2014 at 7:27 PM, Stelio Kontos said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 6:44 PM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 6:19 PM, Stelio Kontos said:

A random aside, by the way: I'm not really happy with the talk about "lynching people for information" -- ever, really, but especially on day 1.  Like, if you lynch a villager, what information do you expect to get other than "welp, they flipped villager even though a significant number of people, certainly including a few villagers because that's how math works, thought he was wolfy"? 

 

How about we just lynch the wolfiest people and hope they flip wolf?

 

Assuming you mean that question honestly rather than playing it off, here's what I look for:

1) Lynchfuel - was there a moment when the lynch was subtly kicked into high gear, by a vote or an argument?  Can find scum here with more regularity than randomness would allow

 

2) Competing trains - who else was on the block, and were they scum (info that might not be immediately apparent D2, but may become so later)?  If so, look for scum shifting momentum away from a teammate and towards the other candidate, even if not necessarily defending the teammate in any obvious way; and, in contrast

 

3) Throwaway votes - especially where both trains are on innocents, I look for people hanging out with votes in odd places, candidates who, by near day's end, stand no realistic chance of getting lynched.  Got to take into account people who simply weren't around EoD when an early vote became throwaway (if everyone on Arsis moves to me, and someone who shows up only after deadline is left as the last vote on Arsis, that's circumstances, not throwaway), but other than that, people who waste voting opportunities are often scum looking to stay "clean" by not being involved in lynching a townie.  That's even more true when both the top options were townies.

 

Sure, lynching scum would give us more info, and those pieces of evidence aren't exactly fool proof.  But "welp, they flipped villager, who knows" is not the only deduction to be made from an innocent flip, and over time, they can accumulate into real solid evidence.

 

 

I don't even disagree with any of this, and yet I contend that "we lynched person X on day 1, he was a villager, that means on d2 we can conclude..." is often a sentence completed by a lot of things that it shouldn't be.

 

I'll leave 1) alone because I kind of don't know what to say about it -- it's not wrong, exactly, but it feels very game-dependent, and in this game it kind of feels like we don't have one stupendous lynch option let alone two, so I don't think it applies very well.

 

2) is obvious, but depends a lot more on the competing wolf wagon than it does the particular villager, and you get pretty much the same information by lynching them d1 than you would later anyway :p

 

3) is again kind of game dependent; I'd rephrase it as "when you have v/v wagons, wolves are more likely to be content and inactive so as not to rock the boat", although when you have solid v/v wagons that's a really really easy thing for wolves to exploit anyway.

 

When you say "lynching for information", I assume (perhaps wrongly) that you essentially mean "there are a lot of people that have strong opinions on this person or interactions with them, let's find out who among them is right" -- which is fine and dandy, except that I think you are grossly overestimating the meaningfulness of people's low-information "decisions" on d1 when you do that.

 

 

Yes. Very, very wrong assumption.  People being "right" on D1 is either random luck, absurdly poor scum play (I've seen it happen, but rarely), or players with inside information (mafia, masons).  The information you get from a D1 village lynch is about helping zero in to that last group, not necessarily for the obvious reasons ("you lynched a villager! Scum!  You defended a villager! Town!") and definitely not enough to reach rock solid D2 conclusions.  It's a building block that can mature into something more helpful down the road, not a table of contents for the game.

Posted
  On 11/13/2014 at 7:37 PM, Leelou said:

What is wrong with DM today? 

 

Storm knocked out power at the server site. Probably screwed a few things up that are being fixed

Posted
  On 11/13/2014 at 7:50 PM, Stelio Kontos said:

 

  On 11/11/2014 at 7:03 PM, Darthe said:

DPR

Wombat

AJ

Deslami

Dice 

Thane

 

 

 

Verbacle

Yates

 

Pretty much where I stand atm.  Everyone left out I'm back and forth on or have light reads.  I think I have a pretty solid town core and am generally better at townhunting than scumhunting anyways.

 

OK Darthe,:

 

1) What made Dice villagery when you posted this (which, to be fair, was two days ago, although at the time you posted this he had all of nine posts and it was early Tuesday afternoon) and wolfy now?

2) Isn't the time to apply pressure and bring up his lack of posting sometime BEFORE he says "I have to go to work now" and not immediately after?

 

I pretty much solely read dice based on my meta of him.  My meta says he doesn't act scummy in general but that he displays a lot more interest in gamesolving as town than mafia.  If he isn't posting he is prob scum.  So, in this case him posting 9 times in a day or so was enough for me to townread him and I now have reconsidered that based on his absence since he created a bit of thread presence.  In essence, Dice got comfy that he wouldn't be the lynch and then backed into the shadows to duck out on occasion.  It's how I lost my third game ever (Revenge of the Sith hosted by Ithillian).  Honestly he wouldn't have caught my attention had he not done that poor vote.  That should explain everything.  

Posted
  On 11/13/2014 at 7:54 PM, Tommyrod said:

Mod Announcement:

 

Day 1 ends in just over 6 hours.

 

The thread will be LOCKED for Night, which is 10 hours long.

 

Since I do not have mod powers here, that means you are responsible for not posting after EOD.

 

Votes made on :00 are good; :01 bad.

 

Do not post after 9:00 PM EDT. I will forgive posting at 9:01, but a post at 9:02 will give you a chance to be modkilled.

 

Thanks for reading.

 

I do.  As do Barm and Verb.  One of us will lock the thread and reopen it at 7am ... if we remember to.

Posted
  On 11/13/2014 at 8:04 PM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 7:27 PM, Stelio Kontos said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 6:44 PM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 6:19 PM, Stelio Kontos said:

A random aside, by the way: I'm not really happy with the talk about "lynching people for information" -- ever, really, but especially on day 1.  Like, if you lynch a villager, what information do you expect to get other than "welp, they flipped villager even though a significant number of people, certainly including a few villagers because that's how math works, thought he was wolfy"? 

 

How about we just lynch the wolfiest people and hope they flip wolf?

 

Assuming you mean that question honestly rather than playing it off, here's what I look for:

1) Lynchfuel - was there a moment when the lynch was subtly kicked into high gear, by a vote or an argument?  Can find scum here with more regularity than randomness would allow

 

2) Competing trains - who else was on the block, and were they scum (info that might not be immediately apparent D2, but may become so later)?  If so, look for scum shifting momentum away from a teammate and towards the other candidate, even if not necessarily defending the teammate in any obvious way; and, in contrast

 

3) Throwaway votes - especially where both trains are on innocents, I look for people hanging out with votes in odd places, candidates who, by near day's end, stand no realistic chance of getting lynched.  Got to take into account people who simply weren't around EoD when an early vote became throwaway (if everyone on Arsis moves to me, and someone who shows up only after deadline is left as the last vote on Arsis, that's circumstances, not throwaway), but other than that, people who waste voting opportunities are often scum looking to stay "clean" by not being involved in lynching a townie.  That's even more true when both the top options were townies.

 

Sure, lynching scum would give us more info, and those pieces of evidence aren't exactly fool proof.  But "welp, they flipped villager, who knows" is not the only deduction to be made from an innocent flip, and over time, they can accumulate into real solid evidence.

 

 

I don't even disagree with any of this, and yet I contend that "we lynched person X on day 1, he was a villager, that means on d2 we can conclude..." is often a sentence completed by a lot of things that it shouldn't be.

 

I'll leave 1) alone because I kind of don't know what to say about it -- it's not wrong, exactly, but it feels very game-dependent, and in this game it kind of feels like we don't have one stupendous lynch option let alone two, so I don't think it applies very well.

 

2) is obvious, but depends a lot more on the competing wolf wagon than it does the particular villager, and you get pretty much the same information by lynching them d1 than you would later anyway :p

 

3) is again kind of game dependent; I'd rephrase it as "when you have v/v wagons, wolves are more likely to be content and inactive so as not to rock the boat", although when you have solid v/v wagons that's a really really easy thing for wolves to exploit anyway.

 

When you say "lynching for information", I assume (perhaps wrongly) that you essentially mean "there are a lot of people that have strong opinions on this person or interactions with them, let's find out who among them is right" -- which is fine and dandy, except that I think you are grossly overestimating the meaningfulness of people's low-information "decisions" on d1 when you do that.

 

 

Yes. Very, very wrong assumption.  People being "right" on D1 is either random luck, absurdly poor scum play (I've seen it happen, but rarely), or players with inside information (mafia, masons).  The information you get from a D1 village lynch is about helping zero in to that last group, not necessarily for the obvious reasons ("you lynched a villager! Scum!  You defended a villager! Town!") and definitely not enough to reach rock solid D2 conclusions.  It's a building block that can mature into something more helpful down the road, not a table of contents for the game.

 

 

All of this is whatever

 

except that you get that sort of information NO MATTER WHO YOU LYNCH

 

because, by definition, a lot of people are expressing an opinion on someone who gets lynched at the end of the day.

Posted
  On 11/13/2014 at 8:06 PM, Darthe said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 7:50 PM, Stelio Kontos said:

 

  On 11/11/2014 at 7:03 PM, Darthe said:

DPR

Wombat

AJ

Deslami

Dice 

Thane

 

 

 

Verbacle

Yates

 

Pretty much where I stand atm.  Everyone left out I'm back and forth on or have light reads.  I think I have a pretty solid town core and am generally better at townhunting than scumhunting anyways.

 

OK Darthe,:

 

1) What made Dice villagery when you posted this (which, to be fair, was two days ago, although at the time you posted this he had all of nine posts and it was early Tuesday afternoon) and wolfy now?

2) Isn't the time to apply pressure and bring up his lack of posting sometime BEFORE he says "I have to go to work now" and not immediately after?

 

I pretty much solely read dice based on my meta of him.  My meta says he doesn't act scummy in general but that he displays a lot more interest in gamesolving as town than mafia.  If he isn't posting he is prob scum.  So, in this case him posting 9 times in a day or so was enough for me to townread him and I now have reconsidered that based on his absence since he created a bit of thread presence.  In essence, Dice got comfy that he wouldn't be the lynch and then backed into the shadows to duck out on occasion.  It's how I lost my third game ever (Revenge of the Sith hosted by Ithillian).  Honestly he wouldn't have caught my attention had he not done that poor vote.  That should explain everything.  

 

hmmmmmm

Posted
  On 11/13/2014 at 8:04 PM, Kivam said:

Yes. Very, very wrong assumption. People being "right" on D1 is either random luck, absurdly poor scum play (I've seen it happen, but rarely), or players with inside information (mafia, masons). The information you get from a D1 village lynch is about helping zero in to that last group, not necessarily for the obvious reasons ("you lynched a villager! Scum! You defended a villager! Town!") and definitely not enough to reach rock solid D2 conclusions. It's a building block that can mature into something more helpful down the road, not a table of contents for the game.

I def disagree with bolded, and this kinda seems to contradict an earlier point you made about how people shouldn't consider D1 random guesswork.

 

Good town play CAN find scum on D1 without inside info, or without sloppy scum play. All it takes is astute levels of perception and no townies derping and making themselves easy targets for scum to bandwagon on

Posted
  On 11/13/2014 at 8:14 PM, Stelio Kontos said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 8:04 PM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 7:27 PM, Stelio Kontos said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 6:44 PM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 6:19 PM, Stelio Kontos said:

A random aside, by the way: I'm not really happy with the talk about "lynching people for information" -- ever, really, but especially on day 1.  Like, if you lynch a villager, what information do you expect to get other than "welp, they flipped villager even though a significant number of people, certainly including a few villagers because that's how math works, thought he was wolfy"? 

 

How about we just lynch the wolfiest people and hope they flip wolf?

 

Assuming you mean that question honestly rather than playing it off, here's what I look for:

1) Lynchfuel - was there a moment when the lynch was subtly kicked into high gear, by a vote or an argument?  Can find scum here with more regularity than randomness would allow

 

2) Competing trains - who else was on the block, and were they scum (info that might not be immediately apparent D2, but may become so later)?  If so, look for scum shifting momentum away from a teammate and towards the other candidate, even if not necessarily defending the teammate in any obvious way; and, in contrast

 

3) Throwaway votes - especially where both trains are on innocents, I look for people hanging out with votes in odd places, candidates who, by near day's end, stand no realistic chance of getting lynched.  Got to take into account people who simply weren't around EoD when an early vote became throwaway (if everyone on Arsis moves to me, and someone who shows up only after deadline is left as the last vote on Arsis, that's circumstances, not throwaway), but other than that, people who waste voting opportunities are often scum looking to stay "clean" by not being involved in lynching a townie.  That's even more true when both the top options were townies.

 

Sure, lynching scum would give us more info, and those pieces of evidence aren't exactly fool proof.  But "welp, they flipped villager, who knows" is not the only deduction to be made from an innocent flip, and over time, they can accumulate into real solid evidence.

 

 

I don't even disagree with any of this, and yet I contend that "we lynched person X on day 1, he was a villager, that means on d2 we can conclude..." is often a sentence completed by a lot of things that it shouldn't be.

 

I'll leave 1) alone because I kind of don't know what to say about it -- it's not wrong, exactly, but it feels very game-dependent, and in this game it kind of feels like we don't have one stupendous lynch option let alone two, so I don't think it applies very well.

 

2) is obvious, but depends a lot more on the competing wolf wagon than it does the particular villager, and you get pretty much the same information by lynching them d1 than you would later anyway :p

 

3) is again kind of game dependent; I'd rephrase it as "when you have v/v wagons, wolves are more likely to be content and inactive so as not to rock the boat", although when you have solid v/v wagons that's a really really easy thing for wolves to exploit anyway.

 

When you say "lynching for information", I assume (perhaps wrongly) that you essentially mean "there are a lot of people that have strong opinions on this person or interactions with them, let's find out who among them is right" -- which is fine and dandy, except that I think you are grossly overestimating the meaningfulness of people's low-information "decisions" on d1 when you do that.

 

 

Yes. Very, very wrong assumption.  People being "right" on D1 is either random luck, absurdly poor scum play (I've seen it happen, but rarely), or players with inside information (mafia, masons).  The information you get from a D1 village lynch is about helping zero in to that last group, not necessarily for the obvious reasons ("you lynched a villager! Scum!  You defended a villager! Town!") and definitely not enough to reach rock solid D2 conclusions.  It's a building block that can mature into something more helpful down the road, not a table of contents for the game.

 

 

All of this is whatever

 

except that you get that sort of information NO MATTER WHO YOU LYNCH

 

because, by definition, a lot of people are expressing an opinion on someone who gets lynched at the end of the day.

 

 

This is just wrong. What interactions has Hallia had? Dice? Songstress?  Until just now, you?  Yes, a villager flip from any of you will give some information - but not as much as a villager flip from someone who had interactions that, if scum, would raise red flags.  But arguing mafia theory in a game thread with 5hrs to deadline is somewhat pointless, so I'll let this lie.

Posted
  On 11/13/2014 at 8:26 PM, Despothera said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 8:04 PM, Kivam said:

Yes. Very, very wrong assumption. People being "right" on D1 is either random luck, absurdly poor scum play (I've seen it happen, but rarely), or players with inside information (mafia, masons). The information you get from a D1 village lynch is about helping zero in to that last group, not necessarily for the obvious reasons ("you lynched a villager! Scum! You defended a villager! Town!") and definitely not enough to reach rock solid D2 conclusions. It's a building block that can mature into something more helpful down the road, not a table of contents for the game.

I def disagree with bolded, and this kinda seems to contradict an earlier point you made about how people shouldn't consider D1 random guesswork.

 

Good town play CAN find scum on D1 without inside info, or without sloppy scum play. All it takes is astute levels of perception and no townies derping and making themselves easy targets for scum to bandwagon on

 

 

No - excluding pure luck, it takes scum making scum-looking plays. Which is the definition of sloppy play, because as scum, the goal is to play like a townie.  If you've been having a string of D1 scum hits, you aren't playing with very good players 

Posted

Feels like someone hit me in the jaw with a hammer.  Catching up.  Main problem I have with the DPR lynch right now is that idk what it gets us if he flips town.  All it would tell me is that Des can't lay off a tunnel and Cass can't read Wes when she's never played with him.  Also, if I had to predict before this game even started, two people for Des to have as scum reads on D1, they would be DPR and Darthe.  So the fact that Des has those as his top two just makes me feel like he's either scumming it up or clowning it up.  Also, I'm kinda pissed off right now.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...