[Advanced] Revenge of the Marlfox

[Andrej]

It doesn't matter. You did the same thing in the VS game where you consistently called people on their fake Seer cover.

 

Just stop it.

[Arsis]

When is night over... Blegh.

[Hallia]

 

Evening all!

 

And no, I did not misunderstand you. 

Eh, then why did you act like I'd accused you of being manipulative?

 

 

 

 

 

Hallia's done a bit of emotional manipulation this game. It's something that would be extremely repugnant, the way cory described it. And I agree, because I almost feel the same.

 

But conversely, it's a hydra which means meta should be applied loosely.

What??! I've played this game openly. I WANT you to show me where I did that.

It's 120 pages lol. I remember you expressing yourself in an emotional way, in a manner that would be straightforward if you were town, or emotional manipulation if you were a wolf.

 

[Sili Quirrels]

Even if you are incorrect***

 

It's fine to speculate like this as a villager if it helps you develop your reads on other slots. Announcing it though does you and the entire village a disservice. If you're actually a wolf then disregard the advice and die, but if you're a village you need to learn that this type of thing only aids the wolf team.

I cannot express just how much apathy I have for this line of thinking. It's exasperating. I didn't expect to be right every time, I was only hoping to be wrong.

 

And NOW YOU TAKE ME TO TASK for it. >.>

 

Fine I won't talk about it anymore. Sheesh.

[Andrej]

Well if you can't objectively seeing how calling out potential PRs on thread is idiotic to do as a villager than I guess that's on you more than anything. Carry on if you wish but don't whine when the wolves make excellent NKs.

[monstrman]

no I AM THE COP
 
SUPERCOP EVEN
 
AMAZOCOP
 
I'M SO COPPY I'M FLOPPY

 

http://youtu.be/up863eQKGUI

[hazelkrs1]

 

 

Evening all!

 

And no, I did not misunderstand you.

Eh, then why did you act like I'd accused you of being manipulative?

Cause that's exactly what you did, in a scummy hedging sort of way?

[Sili Quirrels]

 

 

Evening all!

 

And no, I did not misunderstand you. 

Eh, then why did you act like I'd accused you of being manipulative?

 

 

 

 

 

Hallia's done a bit of emotional manipulation this game. It's something that would be extremely repugnant, the way cory described it. And I agree, because I almost feel the same.

 

But conversely, it's a hydra which means meta should be applied loosely.

What??! I've played this game openly. I WANT you to show me where I did that.

It's 120 pages lol. I remember you expressing yourself in an emotional way, in a manner that would be straightforward if you were town, or emotional manipulation if you were a wolf.

 

 

Okay, so I'm now more confused. Just so that we're on the same page, I didn't mean to say you were being emotionally manipulative. I was saying that inside a box that had you as wolfpack.

[Sili Quirrels]

And I mean you're obviously not wolfpack.

[Sili Quirrels]

Well if you can't objectively seeing how calling out potential PRs on thread is idiotic to do as a villager than I guess that's on you more than anything. Carry on if you wish but don't whine when the wolves make excellent NKs.

I do see. But forgive me my indulgence.

[TheRagnarok]

You people do realize that you have all managed to say essentially nothing over the last 6 pages?

 

I mean, there's jack shit worth of actual gameplay.  Maybe 3 posts.

[TheRagnarok]

 

Well if you can't objectively seeing how calling out potential PRs on thread is idiotic to do as a villager than I guess that's on you more than anything. Carry on if you wish but don't whine when the wolves make excellent NKs.

I do see. But forgive me my indulgence.

 

This is more important if players drop hints as to role or peeking someone, as opposed to straight up claiming. 

 

If someone is dropping hints, take note of them and shut up.

[Andrej]

Rags:

 

Complains about off topic discussion.

 

Joins off topic discussion.

 

Cheers brah. I'm really just waiting for Night to end

[Arsis]

Isn't the deadline passed by like 3 hours now?

[berf]

Furthmore:

 

Survior Hardclaim. AJ cannot make it to end game, fact. That is just built into the claim. Ergo I'd conclude it's legit, otherwise the SK has just bought a whole tonne of attention onto himself for no real reason. Scum motivation for the claim? Hard to see. Brings too much attention and ultimately will get him killed one way or another, which makes it hard to survive to end game, yes? So I'm inclined to believe this, and we'll kill this slot if we happen to mislynch a few times and get closer to endgame. Survivor can't hurt us for the first 3 days at least, running the numbers assuming Vig+NK are in play and aren't prevented in any way. (worst case = 16 players - 6 town = 10. 1 Survivor and max of 4 scum still can't outvote 5 town)

 

So unless we get a few more kills than we should do overnight, AJ is probs survivor, and therefore we can ignore him for a few days.

 

Hardclaim Beloved Princess; Tommy - Again cannot make it to end game. Provided we assume the claim is real we have to take into account a few factors;

 

1. Potential Doc Protect - Relies on a few things. 1. That there is a doc and 2. The doc believes the claim and 3. the Doc sees Tommy as their biggest protection target. Same for any commuter/JKer etc.

2. Potential NK - 1. Will the scum believe it 2. Do they try for mislynch over NK.

 

IF Tommy is telling the truth, the question for me ultimately is can he survive to endgame? For that to happen, the mafia have to not NK the slot assuming we don't lynch. Is it possible to ensure protection? 

 

I would wager no. I believe that at some point, the mafia will come for Tommy, either when numbers are down as a hail mary, or later on in the game when a double dose of NK and night actions could really screw things up for town. So then the question becomes when to remove the slot, because it's a time bomb, really. I would think that removing the slot earlier rather than later would hurt scum more than any other option. Having two night phases early on can also have some benefit to town ie cop/vig etc can fire off two shots without having to dodge a mislynch, and the lack of claims in thread (@Arsis >.>) reduce the informed pool of mafia NK choices. 

 

Warning: Maths + Pessimism. 

 

All assuming 4 scum+Survivor+NK. Potential Vig makes this more extreme. 

 

Day 2 start 16 -2 town=  14 - 9 town 1 Sv 4 scum

Day 3 start 14 -2 town=  12 - 7 town 1 Sv 4 scum

Day 4 start 12 -2 town = 10 - 5 town 1 Sv 4 scum - From here town has to lynch correctly, but will eventually get down to 1v1 and gamewin for the scum.

 

If we Lynch @Tommy Day 2 we go to Day 4 with potentially (14 @D2 Start - 2Nk -2Vig -@Tommy) 9 players. Potential makeup swings between (4 town 1 survivor 4 scum) and (7 town 2 scum)

If we Lynch @Tommy Day 3 we go into Day 5 with potentially (10,11 or 12 players Vig dependant, - 2Nk, -2 Vig - @tommy) 5 or 7 players, which could swing between (0-4 scum)(0-7 town) ie anything. 

 

So if I'm reading that correctly a Day 2 @Tommy lynch, combined with a misfiring Vig and NK's could hand the win to scum. That is in a 4-scum scenario situation, however, which makes me lean toward a 3 player scum team, which also gives veracity to the Survivor claim on balance. Let's see then;

 

3 scum+Survivor+NK+Vig

 

Day 2 Start with 13 players (16 - D1 Lynch N1 Vig +NK)

Day 3 Start with 10 players (13 - D2 Lynch N2 Vig+NK)

Day 4 Start with 7 players (10 - D3 Lynch N3 Vig+NK) If no scum caught by this stage, Day 4 lynch becomes endgame. 

 

If @Tommy is lynched day 2 (Coming back to look at this before I posted and I noticed that a Day 4 start is BETTER for town with a Day 2 Tommy lynch than without it. Day starts with 8 players over 7 thanks to a skipped D3 lynch)

 

Day 4 Start with 8 Players, Makeup swing between 3 scum +Sv + 4 town or townwin with scum lynches/vig shots)

16-8=8

(D1 - Lynch + nk+vig = 3)

(D2 - @tommy +nk+vig = 3)

(D3 - nk+Vig = 2)

 

If @Tommy is lynched day 3

 

Day 5 start with 5 players, with makeup swing from townwin to scumwin. 5 dead town given @Tommy and 4 NK's. So 11 players  - X, where X is equal to 2 lynches and 4 vig shots.

16-11=5

(D1 - Lynch + nk+vig = 3)

(D2 - Lynch +nk+vig = 3)

(D3 - @tommy +nk+Vig = 3)

(D4 - nk+Vig = 2)

 

 

Hrmm. If there is a Vig in this game, the shots will make or break town. Also this points me toward being very wary of a Tommy lynch anytime other than immediately. Or scum could take the shot overnight and render all this useless. 

 

@Tommy, thoughts? The only way you can't really screw town is to ride potential scumtrap wifom to avoid NK's and/or ride potential protection until win. Are you confident you'll live to see the death of at least 3 scum? Because if you are not, we need to kill you and limit damage, and it seems like Day 2 is the time to do it.

 

@Sili - Please don't cop claim for me. If I was going to cop claim, I'd handle it. Also you are as guilty as Desp and Tommy for spamming up the thread, so don't think you don't get a wag of the finger for that.

 

@Desp - Vig shot on @Tommy is weird. Either A) You are lying about being the Vig and thus clouding any potential real Vig shot or B) Are the actual Vig and are banking on protections and taking a very cavalier approach to @Tommy. You don't seem to have any consideration for the play - ie scum plan, or laying a scum trap, or town being real = You've leapt to scumtell without giving it proper thought. 

 

What benefit is there to scum claiming this? It invites death. 

 

@Arsis - So you aren't the watcher? Wanting to draw the NK would imply you are VT trying to take one for the team. But you abandoned the gambit pretty quickly? Wouldn't it make more sense to keep up the claim until morning, at least? Strange.

[Tommyrod]

Let's talk later.

[hazelkrs1]

Its gotten to the point where anyone who still thinks Sili might be town here is either scum, not reading his posts, or is well... not reading him correctly

[TheRagnarok]

Rags:

 

Complains about off topic discussion.

 

Joins off topic discussion.

 

Cheers brah. I'm really just waiting for Night to end

You insinuated I am a hypocrite, I'm not playing with you anymore!

 

Am I doing it right?

 

But it seems like have this night phase has been a pissing contest between Des and Tom.  They both tend to...overcompensate.

[Krakalakachkn]

The plan was set, the beginning of the assault finalized.  Redwall Abbey had withstood generations of attack and had never been brought to its knees.  Lantur was well aware of the formidable nature of the Abbey’s strength, made strong by stone and made strong by its inhabitants.  Cluny the Scourge, the most powerful and terrifying rat in recent memory had tried and failed in his attempt to conquer and rule the Abbey.  

 

Lantur led her troops forth in the dead of night, keen on striking a swift, deadly blow with her first assault. Her troops sallied forth upon the appointed hour, scaling ladders and grappling hooks held by the paws of the many. They hurried down the road toward Redwall, grinning with unsatiated bloodlust.

 

The GUOSIM were also about in the night. The disappearance of Unta had them on edge; she disappeared completely in a region with no known predators, no snake or fowl or rat or stoat. A forward scout noticed movement along the road in front of her and scurried to warn her Log-a-Log.

 

"Quickly, dispatch a runner to the Abbey to wake them and warn them and to have their gates and walls manned and ready. We will arrive shortly. The rest of us will hit the rats from the front and side, slowing them, making time for the runner's message to be known."

 

Organizing quickly, the shrews drew their slings and quietly moved into position.  The leading rats rounded a bend in the road a few moments later, Lantur at their head.  She reveled in the quiet movement of her hoard, the crisp air, the bloodred moon.  She heard a whiz and a thud and a gasp as the rat next to her fell over.  Lantur threw herself belly first to the ground, just in time to avoid the rest of the volley that sang out through the night and fell among her horde.

 

Agonized cries broke out as limbs and heads were broken, squeals of pain and yells of rage.  Then came the full-throated roar of the shrews as they pounded from cover and charged into the front and front-right of the horde.  Rapiers flashed in the moonlight, separating fur from skin and flesh from bone as the shrews laid about, spiky fur bristling, rats finally finding the wits to draw their cutlasses and return blows.  Lantur jumped up and latched her claws into a passing shrew, dispossessing him of his rapier and sheathing it in its former owner.  She cut out and felled several nearby.

 

The surprise of the attack took the rats aback, but the shrews were heavily outnumbered.  Several fell after a few tense moments and the Log-a-Log gave a sharp whistle.  Those shrews who could ducked down as more stones flew out.  An unfortunate few were hit by friendly fire, but the volley and those that followed gave the rest enough time to disengage and fade into the woods.  A few bold rats followed but were quickly lost or killed before they could realize their stupidity.

 

Lantur and her generals brought the rest of the horde under order and acting quickly, split her forces in half, half to stay and half to go.  She left the wounded and some to tend them and took the rest the last half mile down the road.  When she came into sight of the Abbey she saw the gates fastened shut and the walls lined with all manner of Abbeydweller, most holding makeshift weapons of one sort or another.  

 

Gathering her generals to her they held a brief conversation.  With a snarl and a baleful glare at the Abbey, Lantur and her forces turned and hurried back from the direction they had come.

 

 

Abbess Song turned to Log-a-Log, her dear friend of many years,

 

"I cannot thank you for what you've done today.  Redwall is in your debt and you and your GUOSIM are, of course, welcome to shelter within our walls whenever you need."

 

"I fear we will have need of your offer in the coming days.  But for now we will return to our rivers and boats and see if we can't wiggle out the reason for the sudden arrival of this storm," Log-a-Log replied.

 

The Abbeydwellers returned to their beds and the uneasy sleep that would haunt them in the days following.

 

 

 

 

 

Night 1 has ended.  Day 2 has arrived and no one has died.  No deadline has been set.

[Krakalakachkn]

Isn't the deadline passed by like 3 hours now?

 

deadline passed 18 minutes ago.

[Arsis]

 

 

Isn't the deadline passed by like 3 hours now?

deadline passed 18 minutes ago.

I said it was 3 hours. I'm pretty sure that makes it true ;)

[Tommyrod]

That sticky situation where doctor knows who a clear townie is at about 90% accuracy (barring something like a surprise bulletproof or roleblock) but can't comment on who it is without outing themselves

[Arsis]

Thanks log a log ;)

[monstrman]

oh

 

sick

[Tommyrod]

I mean I don't wanna brag but it's probably me