[Advanced] Blackhoof's Cthulhu Mythos Mafia Game- Day 1

Clovdyx · July 7, 2014

How is it not 50/50? These are the scenarios for their alignments:

-Mynd town, Rand scum

-Mynd scum, Rand town

-Mynd scum, Rand scum

Based solely off of the possibilities, it should be a coinflip between which is telling the truth. Compare this to the scenarios when the dream results were first presented:

-Mynd town, Despot scum, others unknown

-Mynd town, Wombat scum, others unknown

-Mynd town, Daprand scum, others unknown

-Mynd scum, others unknown.

Each time one of his candidates died, it slightly lowered the likeliness he was telling the truth. What you have now is essentially Mynd claiming cop with a guilty verdict on Rand. I'm not saying that Mynd DID claim cop, but the scenario is the same - Mynd was given night results that, right now, confirm Rand as scum. Why is Mynd now waffling on the accuracy of his results? He says that it's as if I know what Rand's going to come up as, but look at him - he had no problem lynching between Despot and Wombat during the previous day phase and wrote a case on why it probably wasn't Dap. Now he's presenting the framework so that if his results are wrong, it's justified...him being insane...even though there's no reason to believe that insanity would even CAUSE unreliable results.

As for the bold, I will vouch that 100%, and I'll say the same thing holds true for Mynd - if town dies today, it pretty much damns the other one.

That is a sleigh of hands with numbers. You say it should be a flip of a coin. This isn't a game of numbers, nor coin-flips. It's a game of reading other people.

I don't see scum-Mynd saying HHH, then something happenes that no-one notices so instead of saying, he makes an elobate lie about a one-time dream setting up a series of mislynches.

I think it's much more likely Dap-Rand is scum.

It is a game of reading people, but that doesn't invalidate my statement in regards to his claim. If you factor in his play and conclude that gives him the greater chance to be town, that's your prerogative, but I don't see it at this stage. Between Lenlo's case on Dap being his only meaningful post at the time, Mynd suddenly calling the integrity of his results into question when there's only one candidate left, and nudges on me for what I feel are quite reasonable concerns, I'm feeling better about him than Rand.

Myndrunner · July 7, 2014

How is it not 50/50? These are the scenarios for their alignments:

-Mynd town, Rand scum

-Mynd scum, Rand town

-Mynd scum, Rand scum

Based solely off of the possibilities, it should be a coinflip between which is telling the truth. Compare this to the scenarios when the dream results were first presented:

-Mynd town, Despot scum, others unknown

-Mynd town, Wombat scum, others unknown

-Mynd town, Daprand scum, others unknown

-Mynd scum, others unknown.

Each time one of his candidates died, it slightly lowered the likeliness he was telling the truth. What you have now is essentially Mynd claiming cop with a guilty verdict on Rand. I'm not saying that Mynd DID claim cop, but the scenario is the same - Mynd was given night results that, right now, confirm Rand as scum. Why is Mynd now waffling on the accuracy of his results? He says that it's as if I know what Rand's going to come up as, but look at him - he had no problem lynching between Despot and Wombat during the previous day phase and wrote a case on why it probably wasn't Dap. Now he's presenting the framework so that if his results are wrong, it's justified...him being insane...even though there's no reason to believe that insanity would even CAUSE unreliable results.

As for the bold, I will vouch that 100%, and I'll say the same thing holds true for Mynd - if town dies today, it pretty much damns the other one.

That is a sleigh of hands with numbers. You say it should be a flip of a coin. This isn't a game of numbers, nor coin-flips. It's a game of reading other people.

I don't see scum-Mynd saying HHH, then something happenes that no-one notices so instead of saying, he makes an elobate lie about a one-time dream setting up a series of mislynches.

I think it's much more likely Dap-Rand is scum.

It is a game of reading people, but that doesn't invalidate my statement in regards to his claim. If you factor in his play and conclude that gives him the greater chance to be town, that's your prerogative, but I don't see it at this stage. Between Lenlo's case on Dap being his only meaningful post at the time, Mynd suddenly calling the integrity of his results into question when there's only one candidate left, and nudges on me for what I feel are quite reasonable concerns, I'm feeling better about him than Rand.

Let's get it straight. It wasn't suddenly. Dap was the least likely scum of those three at the time. A LOT has happened since then. I felt that of those three, Dap was the most likely town. Apparently, that is not the case anymore.

Clovdyx · July 7, 2014

How is it not 50/50? These are the scenarios for their alignments:

-Mynd town, Rand scum

-Mynd scum, Rand town

-Mynd scum, Rand scum

Based solely off of the possibilities, it should be a coinflip between which is telling the truth. Compare this to the scenarios when the dream results were first presented:

-Mynd town, Despot scum, others unknown

-Mynd town, Wombat scum, others unknown

-Mynd town, Daprand scum, others unknown

-Mynd scum, others unknown.

Each time one of his candidates died, it slightly lowered the likeliness he was telling the truth. What you have now is essentially Mynd claiming cop with a guilty verdict on Rand. I'm not saying that Mynd DID claim cop, but the scenario is the same - Mynd was given night results that, right now, confirm Rand as scum. Why is Mynd now waffling on the accuracy of his results? He says that it's as if I know what Rand's going to come up as, but look at him - he had no problem lynching between Despot and Wombat during the previous day phase and wrote a case on why it probably wasn't Dap. Now he's presenting the framework so that if his results are wrong, it's justified...him being insane...even though there's no reason to believe that insanity would even CAUSE unreliable results.

As for the bold, I will vouch that 100%, and I'll say the same thing holds true for Mynd - if town dies today, it pretty much damns the other one.

That is a sleigh of hands with numbers. You say it should be a flip of a coin. This isn't a game of numbers, nor coin-flips. It's a game of reading other people.

I don't see scum-Mynd saying HHH, then something happenes that no-one notices so instead of saying, he makes an elobate lie about a one-time dream setting up a series of mislynches.

I think it's much more likely Dap-Rand is scum.

It is a game of reading people, but that doesn't invalidate my statement in regards to his claim. If you factor in his play and conclude that gives him the greater chance to be town, that's your prerogative, but I don't see it at this stage. Between Lenlo's case on Dap being his only meaningful post at the time, Mynd suddenly calling the integrity of his results into question when there's only one candidate left, and nudges on me for what I feel are quite reasonable concerns, I'm feeling better about him than Rand.

Let's get it straight. It wasn't suddenly. Dap was the least likely scum of those three at the time. A LOT has happened since then. I felt that of those three, Dap was the most likely town. Apparently, that is not the case anymore.

Actually, it was. Prior to post #2351 you hadn't mentioned being insane. At all. You were completely gung-ho with following your results, as evident by you placing both Despot and Wombat in your Screaming scum salad in post #1722. Between the two of them (Wom and Des), these were the only two posts made by either of them during D2 til that point:

That could open things up a bit.

I haven't really woken up yet and I probably need to go back over some things before I move forward. The scum flip should help though.

Obviously Dap hadn't posted yet. So basically, you get a night result that says "One or more of the following players are not town: Despot, Wombat, and Dap", and that makes you put the two had been somewhat active as lockscum? I'm calling shenanigans that you were concerned about the validity of your results. Fast forward.

The only post made since daybreak specifically addressing the possibility of you being insane was #2335 where Rand refuted a prior statement by TG - and Rand's post suggested that you being insane wouldn't influence your results, only your targets.

With that said, I don't see how you argue the bolded statements aren't completely out of the blue.

As far as my actual role, I'm VT. The "gift" I got from saying HHH was a Nightmare, I got to choose three names but I had a chance of death. Lenlo was frozen, and I guess we are about to find out what happens to you.

I should be more confident than I am about Rand flipping scum. I was sure Wombat was scum on D2 and quite surprised he flipped town. I'm starting to worry that an assumption I made earlier in the game has cost us big time. According to my PM about my HHH gift, it was different than any other gift I would receive from other players; however, this apparently does not mean that I am not an "insane" player. The insanity has to do with my targets being randomized.

So yeah....there is a chance that the three names I chose may have randomly......yeah........

Still, I don't think anyone who has been lynched so far hadn't been acting scummy enough to warrant it.

With that said, I'm going to ask this one time. Mynd. When you were told you could dream, which three players did you choose?

RandA lThor · July 7, 2014

On top of that, and this is more semantics and a much smaller point, so you can ignore this, but 1/3 seems like an odd number. Generally I'd feel like 1/2 or 1/4 are just more... round. And on top of that, if we're talking negative items, a 1/3 chance of dying with a 2/3 chance of potentially clearing 3 town, or finding some mafia is more likely to be positive than negative.

I think you're flailing. Hard.

Name three players - there is a one in third chance you die.

Are you telling me or are you suggesting that the three in both is a correlation? Also, there's a reason why I said possibly ignore this, this is semantics. It's a tiny point, but a point still the same. The fact that you're attacking me on the portion of my statement I said barely mattered and then not even looking at the important part is sad and scummy.

That being said, literally no one has responded to the thoughts that I asked people to respond to. That wasn't even supposed to be a reaction test, I just wanted opinions on my stream of thoughts.

If you want to tell me that I'm flailing, look at the posts that I actually care about, not the one section of a post that I marked as nearly irrelevant.

There is the slight possibility that Rand/Mynd are town/town, although unlikely. I know I am town so if Rand, for whatever reason, flips town, then it is that case. I wouldn't blame anyone for lynching me in that this whole mess would have led us to three mislynches. The whole insane thing is a possibility as well as the possibility of a bus driver type role. There are possiblities, although improbable, that could happen.

Having said that, the most likely scenario is Rand is teh scum.

K, Mynd say it right now. Are you voting me because I'm the last one on the list? Or are you voting me because you think I'm scummy? Had I not been on your list, would you still vote me? If not, where would I be on your scum list now, if I had NOT been on your list?

nervositee · July 7, 2014

On top of that, and this is more semantics and a much smaller point, so you can ignore this, but 1/3 seems like an odd number. Generally I'd feel like 1/2 or 1/4 are just more... round. And on top of that, if we're talking negative items, a 1/3 chance of dying with a 2/3 chance of potentially clearing 3 town, or finding some mafia is more likely to be positive than negative.

I think you're flailing. Hard.

Name three players - there is a one in third chance you die.

Are you telling me or are you suggesting that the three in both is a correlation? Also, there's a reason why I said possibly ignore this, this is semantics. It's a tiny point, but a point still the same. The fact that you're attacking me on the portion of my statement I said barely mattered and then not even looking at the important part is sad and scummy.

That being said, literally no one has responded to the thoughts that I asked people to respond to. That wasn't even supposed to be a reaction test, I just wanted opinions on my stream of thoughts.

If you want to tell me that I'm flailing, look at the posts that I actually care about, not the one section of a post that I marked as nearly irrelevant.

If it were irrelevant, you wouldn't have added it. I marked it because I'm trying to do my job - find the scum. And adding the "it's strange it was 1/3" looked like you were desperately trying to flesh out your discrediting Mynd. Beyond what is relevant = scummy.

Hoping more people will chime in and we can move forward. Again - less interested in beating dead horses, and going in circles about the dream doesn't really get us anywhere atm.

We can chose to believe Mynd and/or clear up the Wifom and Lynch Rand

We can chose to believe Rand that Mynd is making all of this up and lynch Mynd

We can ignore all of this and go look elsewhere, and just let it be.

I've added my 2 cents - interested in hearing others' opinion on this.

RandA lThor · July 7, 2014

On top of that, and this is more semantics and a much smaller point, so you can ignore this, but 1/3 seems like an odd number. Generally I'd feel like 1/2 or 1/4 are just more... round. And on top of that, if we're talking negative items, a 1/3 chance of dying with a 2/3 chance of potentially clearing 3 town, or finding some mafia is more likely to be positive than negative.

I think you're flailing. Hard.

Name three players - there is a one in third chance you die.

Are you telling me or are you suggesting that the three in both is a correlation? Also, there's a reason why I said possibly ignore this, this is semantics. It's a tiny point, but a point still the same. The fact that you're attacking me on the portion of my statement I said barely mattered and then not even looking at the important part is sad and scummy.

That being said, literally no one has responded to the thoughts that I asked people to respond to. That wasn't even supposed to be a reaction test, I just wanted opinions on my stream of thoughts.

If you want to tell me that I'm flailing, look at the posts that I actually care about, not the one section of a post that I marked as nearly irrelevant.

If it were irrelevant, you wouldn't have added it. I marked it because I'm trying to do my job - find the scum. And adding the "it's strange it was 1/3" looked like you were desperately trying to flesh out your discrediting Mynd. Beyond what is relevant = scummy.

Hoping more people will chime in and we can move forward. Again - less interested in beating dead horses, and going in circles about the dream doesn't really get us anywhere atm.

We can chose to believe Mynd and/or clear up the Wifom and Lynch Rand

We can chose to believe Rand that Mynd is making all of this up and lynch Mynd

We can ignore all of this and go look elsewhere, and just let it be.

I've added my 2 cents - interested in hearing others' opinion on this.

Not really. I thought it was interesting so I posted it, but acknowledged that it was probably nothing.

RandA lThor · July 7, 2014

But yes, more people would be great

RandA lThor · July 8, 2014

Are you serious? 5 hours of what usually should be primetime posting with nothing? Come on people, this is important.

Myndrunner · July 8, 2014

I chose Dap, Despo, and Wombat. I was told that I was lucky and that at least one was not town.

Blackhoof · July 8, 2014

Vote Count:

Rand(4)- Red, Hallia, Mynd, nervo

Mynd(1)- clov

Not voting(6)- Tsukibana, dawnflower, myndrunner, TGlems, Nyn, ReleaseTheEvil

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline: 3AM 11 July EST

Countdown: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20140711T17&p0=1492&msg=End+of+Day+3&csz=1&swk=1

Oh and you know what?

Hastur Hastur Hastur.

For a third time, the house darkened, and Spade swore. "Attracting the unnameable's attention!? Why do you fools keep-" A scream rang out. A sickly yellow light emerged from a nearby room, and Spade, with several other investigators, raced to the closed door. Another scream, and the light faded. Opening the door, the detectives saw a man huddled in the corner, gibbering uncontrollably. "Snap out of it, man!" One if the guests cried, grabbing the unlucky man by his shoulders. "What happened? What did you see?"

The man looked up, and seemed to calm down. "I saw... Everything."

MODERATOR-QUESTION: Would item-giving be seen upon as a Night Action and thus be affected by insanity?

Item-giving is not counted as being a Night-Action.

Nynaeve · July 8, 2014

TG and Tsuki, tell me what you're thinking. You need to step it up.

ReleaseTheEvil · July 8, 2014

So errr I waited just in case but nothing's happened to me yet?

Laaaaaaaaame. You'd think I would have gotten a list of all the roles in the game or something based on that mini scene.

dawnflower8 · July 8, 2014

Why do I think RTE might be hiding something?

Nynaeve · July 8, 2014

So errr I waited just in case but nothing's happened to me yet?

Laaaaaaaaame. You'd think I would have gotten a list of all the roles in the game or something based on that mini scene.

Blackie can be a tease.

ReleaseTheEvil · July 8, 2014

Should I say it again? :tongue:

Nynaeve · July 8, 2014

Whisper it in my ear all sexy like :wink:

Tsukibana · July 8, 2014

Rand is not Scum, IMO. Mynd is nuts. When he named his three people, Hoof went to Random.com to pick who he ACTUALLY targeted.

There is NO possible way that it makes sense for scum, when faced with a list like Mynd's, to go "oh, let's NK the one remaining guy on this list with our teammate"...

Way too much of a risk.

Red has been pretty quite, in this. She pushed REALLY hard for Wombat being Town, due to receiving the gift, but has gone silent.

Mynd is trying to cover his ass with suddenly mentioning the insanity. I would have thought that the possibility I mentioned above would have occurred to him before now.

Dawn - It's lovely she's being active, but her posts show way too much of a dichotomy with the wording and phrasing that Town!Dawn shows. She is either being coached from

the QT, really stepping her game up (unlikely), or has a hidden mentor (unlikely, as violation of site Mafia rules). >rand to be Scum.

Tsukibana is Town, tho albeit a crappy one up until now.

Nynaeve hasn't made a serious game-related post since her case/vote against Wombat since the end of yesterday... Now has a full page of one-liners. Her activity level has dropped.

Scum lean, as scum would now be content to let this one play out on it's own, securing two town lynches, since they made sure that it would be between Mynd and rand now.

RTE is gaming the Mod, saying "H" three times. And if this had killed you outright? I am willing to bet that simply saying the Nameless drives you INSANE, immediately. No results from anything RTE claims from this point forward should be trusted. Willing to "Coach" Dawn in this thread, although he, like I, know the number of games she's been in. Explaining bias?? really? Scum read.

Scum - Dawn, RTE, Nynaeve, Red, Mynd - in that order. Would prefer starting with RTE, tho.

Anyone else, null to town, atm (or not on my mind).

Tsukibana · July 8, 2014

Please not, before Red's inevitable bulldog post, that silent is a relative term - for her, she has been like a mouse at a cat convention.

Tsukibana · July 8, 2014

*note

Nynaeve · July 8, 2014

Nynaeve hasn't made a serious game-related post since her case/vote against Wombat since the end of yesterday... Now has a full page of one-liners. Her activity level has dropped.

Scum lean, as scum would now be content to let this one play out on it's own, securing two town lynches, since they made sure that it would be between Mynd and rand now.

I think it's funny to get criticism from you over activity levels or casing rate. So basically you have nothing to note about the content I've offered, so you're just gonna focus on me getting busy recently with an extra game and social side related events to call me scummy. Totally legit! Superb scum hunting right there.

Nynaeve · July 8, 2014

I also think it's amusing that it took a prod for you to actually post on what's been going on, and yet you're describing me as the one sitting back and letting this play out. Heh.

Nynaeve · July 8, 2014

Rand is not Scum, IMO. Mynd is nuts. When he named his three people, Hoof went to Random.com to pick who he ACTUALLY targeted.

There is NO possible way that it makes sense for scum, when faced with a list like Mynd's, to go "oh, let's NK the one remaining guy on this list with our teammate"...

Way too much of a risk.

What makes you think it was scum that shot Des?

Tsukibana · July 8, 2014

What makes you think they didn't? The fact that the description sounds like a Shriveling (vig kill)? Note, however, that someone actually entered the room. Seems more like mafia to me, but I guess a case could be made either way...

Nynaeve · July 8, 2014

What makes you think they didn't? The fact that the description sounds like a Shriveling (vig kill)? Note, however, that someone actually entered the room. Seems more like mafia to me, but I guess a case could be made either way...

I didn't say it's not possible. There has been talk earlier about the shots at Pral and Des that you didn't even bother to comment on.. Now you're claiming that Rand is prolly town based on the notion that scum would never shoot Des to leave their scummate as the last person on Mynd's list. But we don't even know if scum did shoot Des so your point is kind of null. If I had to guess, it would make loads more sense for scum to shoot a person that was soft claiming cop rather than someone in Mynd's pool that we might have ended up lynching ourselves. If scum is sitting back and letting us run around like headless chicken, as you claim, then why shoot Des and remove the wifom around him? I don't buy that.

Tsukibana · July 8, 2014

Fair enough. I was operating from the assumption that a person entering the room indicates a mafia kill.

Would a PGO shoot an item user, in this type of setup?

[Advanced] Blackhoof's Cthulhu Mythos Mafia Game- Day 1

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