[Advanced] Dragonmount Witchhunt Mafia!!! Game over, Witches win!!!

[WWWwombat]

FYI, my case on Jack is contained in posts 567 and 568.  Given the play you seem to have made, Pralaya, I would like your comments on the analysis I offered there.

[Alanna]

Vote No Lynch

[dicetosser1]

have had some thoughts regarding this whole no lynch thing.

 

vote no lynch

[hazelkrs1]

Official Vote Count

 

 

 
No Lynch (5): Wombat, Leelou, Alanna, Dice
Wombat (3): Jack, Vos, Pray
Jack (1): Mish
 
Not Voting (2): Verbal, Hallia
 
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to hammer if all other votes have been cast. To "hyperlynch", N-1 votes are needed, where N=the number of players currently alive. In other words, it takes 9 votes to "hyperlynch".
 
Day 3 deadline
 
Votes cast since the last VC:
 

 

 

My reads so far. Stream-of-reads-style. 

 

1. Pray - Comes in late - starts off with a Wombat-suspicion (on "Too-town"-grounds). Meta-defends/buddies Lily. Failed soup-kill, which makes him come out saying he did this as a grand scheme to throw off witch role-hunting. Not much else of importance. No reason atm to question his claim, but still holding the option open for a gambit. Null leaning town.  

2. Wombat - Starts off warning people of the soup-thing. While it could be for town-points it reads genuine, and seeing the witches went for soup-kills N1 I don't think it would be worth the trade-off. Gets scum-dawns first vote, even if it's a wierd kind of "FoS/defense"-post. Really unhappy with Lens joke-play D1. Already at night-break shows signs of him rather having Verbal-kills than lynches. Goes all out next day steamrolling a verb kill over a lynch, because it would negate Last Gasp (which isn't that much of a big deal imo) and putting it in the hands of a confirmed townie. I think these are all bad points tbh, as already expressed in thread. I'm still figuring out what it says of his alignment though. I'm not seeing the good town-angle on this, but at the same time I have no idea why scum would do this, unless getting another scapegoat for a miskill by The Verbal (although, this wouldn't be confirmed until potentially later). This is all doing my head in. I'm also thinking his paranoia of outing town roles are starting to become very overplayed. Saying we shouldn't vote for a lynch, because it can out roles is beyond town paranoia and starting to look like an act. Seeing we don't get any flips, he could easily have set himself up as super-townie early to try and ride through the game on it. Starting to lean scum here. 
 

3. Verbal - Quick to point out the "super-townie-angle" on Wombats soup-warning. Cosvotes himself. Goes after Leelou for joking too much, then calling out him for joking. Goes back to check Dawns interactions, but completely ommits her interactions with Wombat. Claims it's because he felt what they had interacted about was also more generally discussed? which doesn't sit well with me at all (link to my thoughts on this). Nor a big fan of how he defended himself about it. Sows doubt of Prals alignment too,bringing up the possibility of a gambit. Combined with his first post warning about Wombat he seems to be hard at work making sure no-one gets too much of a town-read? Mixed reads here, could easily be scum. 

4. Mish - Comes in and very gently meta-defends Len, then brings some gut-feels about me, dawn and Lily, votes Lily and cosvotes Leelou. Then adds her analysis of the soup-kills with some assumptions about the level of experiences of the scum. Interesting that she thinks scum is either two "top-tier" players or one of those and one "low-tier" player. Yet places herself and Pral in the "mid-tier". Still, liked the analysis and the work put into it. Claims she was targeted for a NK and protected. I have no problem seeing the angels voting for Mish, so no reason to doubt this at this point. Town read

5. Jack - First to mention the Cosvote. Then cosvotes himself, followed by a "we need to talk this out". Wierd. Votes Lily for overplaying the Panda and her interactions with Verb. During my re-read I haven't written down much on him, nor noticed anything special that stood out. I did look twice at Wombats ISO though, as Jack is in fact the only player that has fished for roles, and coupled with the soup-kill on Lily it doesn't look too good. Mixed leaning scum here too. 

6. Leelou - Comes across as relaxed townie to me at the start. Jokes around with Verb alot further on in D1. Comes across wary but nothing that sticks out either way. Will prob do a ISO to see if I missed something. 

7. Dawn

8. Hallia - Very inactive. Especially her "I'm here for two more hours"-post, without adding anything to the game is very strange. Why claim you are available and not contribute at all? Null read. 

9. Lenlo - lynched Day 1
 

10. Dice - Seems very eager not to distribute the panda. Points out he doesn't want it, but that either he or Len should have it. Afraid of the target on his back, and "[...] town might [kill] if he makes a mistake.". Apparently skims pretty hardcore and keeps missing that for no-one to get the panda is not an option. Again and again, then when asked about comes with a strange "yes nervo i am. you just dont like what im saying." which is... completely irrelevant. Don't have anything to base a suspicion on, but his play just seems... off. Mixed read, suspicious

 

11. Alanna - Sick D1, comes in D2 with a pretty good post, asking questions about the cosvotes (which, I have to admit, striked me as a bit wierd too, even though I started it). Not much to hold onto here, but her posts have read good to me. Will probably do a ISO here too to see if I've missed anything, but so far leaning town. 

12. Vos
 

13. Lily - Soupkilled Night 1

 

This might make me wildly unpopular, but I'm gonna go against the grains and

 

Vote Wombat.

 

Everything else aside, I don't like that he is trying to work against town actually scum-hunting. The only way for town to hint at their roles are by the results they get if they have information roles (or strangely protect other players, like pray). Scum hunting and voting doesn't give out anything else than town/scum alignments, and 

1. Scum already knows that

2. Scum doesn't want that out in the open

3. Town do. 

 

Might be the fool here if I'm wrong, but I think this game would benefit from more angles here. Seems like Wombat did a clever little mind-trick with saying "We'll kill Jack, how should we do it?" and everyone else reacts by just discussing how to do it, instead of why we should automatically follow Wombats word by default in the first place. 

 

I'm pretty sure either Wombat or Jack is scum at this point, but right now I'm more willing to put my money on Wombat. Third is probably either Verb, Dice or Hallia, but that is still in the blue. 

 

This game seriously messes my head up now, but I think this is where I stand, heh. 

 

 

 

In short, it is a Mish-Wombat scum team. 

 

1. Day 1 - a lot of buddying trying to get the cosvote to Mish

2. Mish and Wombat's nudges FoS on those trying to downplay cosvote but not bringing it again in the game

3. Dawn's classic distancing of Wombat and Mish later trying to defend it strongly to clear Wombat

4. Mish bringing in the idea that the scum team would have experienced players (Wombat/Jack/Verbal) but subtly clearing Wombat as town in the next post

5. Mish claiming she was targetted and protected and Wombat accepting it immediately and deflecting the attention to Jack, essentially setting up jack as today's target.

 

vote Wombat 

 

May also go with the no-lynch route but I am not sure if verbal character is alive  nor am i sure if I can trust that person to kill the scum. So, for now, the direct option is the best.  

 

 

 

Vote No Lynch

 

 

have had some thoughts regarding this whole no lynch thing.

 

vote no lynch

 

 

 

 

---

 

Moderator question: Does the Verbal role have the option to holster?

 

No they do not. If ever a day goes by without a decided lynch, the Verbal role will select someone to kill.

 

[Pralaya]

FYI, my case on Jack is contained in posts 567 and 568.  Given the play you seem to have made, Pralaya, I would like your comments on the analysis I offered there.

 

I did read your case on Jack and Verbal and I don't find them to be convincing.

 

You cover two main points in those two posts

1. Jack's whole cosvote conversation

2. Reactions to my meta read of Lily

 

First, I don't see a deliberate attempt to fish roles by Jack during Day 1. His whole cosvote angle seemed to be a townie being wary of his vote and waiting till we get some reads from others. His going after Lily looks like him attempting to scumhunt rather than fish roles. 

 

For the second part, it all looks like a natural reaction from those who disagreed with my opinion on Lily. Nobody went hard on and everyone slightly mentioned it during the conversation. 

[dicetosser1]

12 hrs left. Who is here?

[dicetosser1]

pray what do you think of the whole no lynch thing?

[Pralaya]

Mentioned it in post #618.

 

It is a valid idea but first, we are not sure if Lenlo was Verbal. Second, if Verbal is alive and going to kill, I don't know if I can trust him to actually kill the scum - who according to me is Wombat and Mish. 

[dicetosser1]

so we share at least one similar thought about it. 

[hazelkrs1]

FYI I think I might have made a mistake before when reading the Verbal role, or got it mixed up with another or something.

 

Technically nothing in the role says or implies that it is a one time use ability. So if the Verbal is still around, technically it looks like it can activate it's ability more than once.

[dicetosser1]

is it still correct that it HAS to activate Des?

[hazelkrs1]

Yes. The wording of the role does look certain in that extent. So if the Verbal role is around, they will be forced to pick someone to kill if it goes to No Lynch. If the Verbal role is alive but not immediately available when a No Lynch happens, I will have random.org pick someone to die.

[dicetosser1]

does the verbal role have x amount of hours to put in an action or are we talking minutes?

[nervositee]

Means voting a no lynch is pretty irrelevant then. 

[dicetosser1]

no not quite nervo. it will tell us one or two things. it might be worth doing for those facts

[nervositee]

no not quite nervo. it will tell us one or two things. it might be worth doing for those facts

 

 

Like getting a better overview of which roles are still in the game, eh?

[hazelkrs1]

does the verbal role have x amount of hours to put in an action or are we talking minutes?

 

PAFO

[Pralaya]

no not quite nervo. it will tell us one or two things. it might be worth doing for those facts

No lynch is a bad idea right now. We know hally is not going be on, as she is probably still in J Con. If she is verbal, not only will a random person die but it will also potentially reveal her role. Giving scum all the advantage. Better we go for a normal lynch today

[Hallia]

I'm on my mobile in SC right now, I've pretty much caught up. You don't have to worry about Verbal not being in the game any more

[WWWwombat]

What is this I don't even

[WWWwombat]

FYI I think I might have made a mistake before when reading the Verbal role, or got it mixed up with another or something.

 

Technically nothing in the role says or implies that it is a one time use ability. So if the Verbal is still around, technically it looks like it can activate it's ability more than once.

 

This is kind of a big detail dude.

[WWWwombat]

7.5 hours to deadline.

[hazelkrs1]

Blech. After consulting with my comod, it does seem like that was somewhat of a significant change not long before the deadline. Gonna extend it a bit.

 

Also, for the record I'd really not wish for any players to game the setup as far as timing of events and stuff. The deadlines have already had to be flexible because of my own schedule, and obviously the nature of some of the roles requires them to potentially be available at certain times. I'd really not rather have anybody confirmed or disconfirmed because of time zone speculation as I find this to be outside the spirit of the game.

 

Thanks for yalls understanding and patience with this btw, this setup is still somewhat new and probably in need of refining as far as actual wording and stuff.

[hazelkrs1]

Official Vote Count

 

 

 
No Lynch (5): Wombat, Leelou, Alanna, Dice
Wombat (3): Jack, Vos, Pray
Jack (1): Mish
 
Not Voting (2): Verbal, Hallia
 
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to hammer if all other votes have been cast. To "hyperlynch", N-1 votes are needed, where N=the number of players currently alive. In other words, it takes 9 votes to "hyperlynch".
 

Day 3 deadline
 
Votes cast since the last VC:
 

 

None.

 

 

 

(deadline has been modified)

[WWWwombat]

Alright, so now one of my main points in favor of No Lynching is completely gone, I am willing to switch to a Jack lynch.  I'd still prefer to No Lynch due to the Last Gasp mechanic and the high probability of Verbal being alive, but I understand if others would prefer to lynch if they believe it will keep info from the scum.  I'm not going to risk derailing the No Lynch train when I've got a wagon on myself though.