[Basic] Christmas Mentors & Maffia

BFG · January 7, 2014

Krak I've highlighted Turins reads that were undecided, why did you focus on Goldens in particular?

Current thoughts on the List of Players:

01 - Peace: The refusal to directly state his reasons for voting elf was a bit weird but it was fairly obvious to me that he was saying that he agreed with Cloud's case against her. The snark fest with Tommy is fiesty peace. Slight town lean

02 - Cloud (mentored by Darthe): Severe buddying to Tommy. ("yes sir"? ) as well as chainsaw defense with regards to elf's case against Tommy. He has been quite eager to get thru D1 it appears. This is usually more evident in mafia members that have good roles they want to utilize. The "i'm excited for this game" line doesn't fly for me. When you made the comment "when are we going to lynch Turin or Hoof" there wasn't much hoofie discussion yet. I was wondering why you picked him to put in there with me. You were following Tommy onto me so that I get but why hoofie at that point? or was Darthe pulling your strings there like with the Leelou is town thing? Mafia #2

03 - Krak (mentored by Verb) not much here yet to me. seemed to be primarily peanut gallery type posts. Undecided.

04 - GoldenEyes (mentored by Despothera) his vote on elf came across as a bad Despo impersonation. Like he wanted to sound like Depso but didn't want to put in the effort to multi quote. Just looks like lazy play so far. undecided tho.

05 - TommyRod: Mafia #1. attempting to lead the town. advocated the "look at inactives" it works every time. Only the ~~Sith~~Mafia deal in absolutes. A few other things. Is Cloud more pro-town than you are? You are constantly defending each other and working together too much.

06 - Leelou (mentored by Wombat) Are you still voting Nolder? You accused me of parking my vote on Tommy but you put your vote on Nolder before he even checked in. maybe hypocrisy is the new black. And if I am tunneling and trying to get him voted out for whatever reason my vote isn't parked. Added to the Tommy defender team. The little shot Night 0 could easily be a distance ploy. If Tommy is mafia like I think then she could very well be also. mafia lean.

07 - Theodora (mentored by Key) Only thing I recall is her early call out of Hoof for claiming Hoof... Were you serious about that? I wasn't sure if it was sarcasm or not... Undecided

08 - Elffern (mentored by Dap) The interaction with Tommy early was interesting. I think she was trying to say that She found Tommy pushing for everyone to play his game off. The not voting until later in the day especially on D1 is classic Dap from about 9 months ago. That she has adopted it is reasonable I guess since she has been away for a while. town lean

09 - Hally (mentored by Yates) More posting please ( yates must be turning over in his grim reaper hut) Incomplete.

10 - BFG - Innocent Child -Back away form the alcohol and post more please. you are the only person we know is trying to help town win so all input and thoughts are valuable

11 - dansyc (mentored by Kaylee) ABSENT Waiting for replacement

12 - Nolder: didn't like his advice to BFG. Also didn't like that he called cloud out for actively trying to get a lynch on D1. There is no such thing as pressuring without the intent to lynch. it is like saying that you are voting someone to pressure them. If the votee doesn't think that you are serious then they will just ignore your vote. Also has been fairly reasonable which is usually a sign of mafia Nolder. slight edge to mafia lean.

13 - BlackHoof: was behaving with just the one silly Blackhoof post which caught Thea's attention. Leaning town still at present

14 - Turin (advised by Pray) Town. but only I know that at present.

Mafia: Tommy, Cloud, maybe nolder, maybe Leelou.

Town: BFG, Turin.

. 23 hour day at present. Good Night now

This post is crap.

A) Feels need to include himself in reads, like we believe that he's town based on his own insistence. I love that last part, "but I only know that at present." That suggests two things: 1) He isn't sure he's town, and 2) He doesn't believe BFG is town.

B) Weak read on Golden

C) Has Cloud as scum #2, and yet hates on Nolder for "calling cloud out for actively trying to get a lynch on D1" in the same post.

D) There is completely such a thing as "pressuring without the intent to lynch." I've done it so many times that myself alone makes you as incorrect as Nixon (or whoever) when he declared Marijuana a gateway drug. To suggest otherwise is naive at best.

Elaevia · January 7, 2014

blrgh - I always manage to try and post right on cloudflare-o'clock

Krak, let's make a deal. We lynch Via today and if she ends up flipping town I will back away from my case on you.

Deal?

Why do you think if I am town (which I am) that makes Krak town as well?

Tommyrod · January 7, 2014

I am alive! We have a problem, or maybe a fun new development, which is that there's going to be more scum than I originally planned on finding. 14*.25 is 3.5, so I expected 3 scum with powerful roles due to the innocent child. With masons added into the mix, that's a minimum of three confirmable townies. We haven't had any extra night kills, which reduces odds of mafia getting extra NK's to balance out the confirmable townies, and makes me doubt there's a serial killer. That means we're looking at 4 mafia, unless the SK doesn't get kills until Night 3 or something. Could be a survivor too.

It's gonna make hunting more complicated. Are there any packs of people that seem like obvious links to each other or to Golden? Hallia being town throws a wrench into my reads... I'll have to pull back and start over now that there could be as many as 5 possible non town in this game.

Also, hello!

BFG · January 7, 2014

At the moment I'm still thinking 3 mafia, 1 third party, but I suspect that we don't have a cop - wiki mafia says 2 masons can be considered the counter of a cop, throw in an IC as well.

peacesells · January 7, 2014

Krak, can you explain your voting pattern statement in regards to me?

Tommyrod · January 7, 2014

At the moment I'm still thinking 3 mafia, 1 third party, but I suspect that we don't have a cop - wiki mafia says 2 masons can be considered the counter of a cop, throw in an IC as well.

I was all excited and you took the wind out of my sails, lol. Typical setup is 3 mafia for a 12 player game. If we say mason and cop equals out, your role still tilts things in town's favor by quite a bit. With the added mentors, I would be surprised if Salami made it that hard for mafia to win, but you could be correct. We'll see! Life keeps getting in my way, but I plan to be fully caught up by this weekend.

BFG · January 7, 2014

Awww now I feel bad (and welcome back, don't drink the punch).

Could be 4 mafia instead of 3 and an anti-town. Mentors won't count towards balance, and besides the mafia team had at least 1 mentor, although Des won't (or shouldn't) have been allowed to post on the mafia QT.

Although if it is 4 then this becomes interesting.

Via, Krak and Hoof are mafia. If the game is still going on then Effie is too.

/game

You can scrap Effie of that list because we only have 4 mafia. There is also a third party out there though.

BFG · January 7, 2014

Actually 4 mafia would be 30% which seems pretty high.

I'm sticking with 3 until we know differently. If there's no cop then effectively every mafia is a GF even if they're only called Goon, that's pretty powerful.

Additionally

initially 13 players

3v10 (3 mislynches before lylo)

3v9v1 (2 mislynches before mylo, depending on the third parties win condition)

4v9 (2 mislynches before lylo)

4v8v1 (1 mislynch before mylo depending on the third parties win condition)

The bolded seem to me to be the most likely.

(sorry, I'm a numbers geek)

BFG · January 7, 2014

Also, updated reads from everybody would be great, particularly Elf & Via.

Tommyrod · January 7, 2014

Was Leelou going hard after anyone during D2?

Nolder · January 8, 2014

01 - Peace

02 - Cloud

03 - Krak

04 - GoldenEyes - Maffia Goon - lynched D1

05 - TommyRod

06 - Leelou - Town Masons - killed N2

07 - Key - Claiming Leelou's Mason partner

08 - Elffern

09 - Hally - Vanilla Town - lynched D2

10 - BFG - Innocent Child

11 - Via

12 - Nolder - Claiming Doc

13 - BlackHoof

14 - Turin - Vanilla Town - killed N1

This is the outlook of the game to me.

Town from my POV is blue, mafia red, suspects purple, and assumed town cyan.

With a pair of masons and our innocent child I don't expect there is a cop anymore so I think it's fairly safe for me to make this move and corner mafia.

I've been protecting BFG every night since I never had a better target but now that Key has revealed I think it will be trickier for mafia to WIFOM between 3 targets rather than two, especially given the fact they have to deal with us today. That also leaves us with two confirmed tomorrow even if I WIFOM wrong and they kill one of us.

Given the numbers and the roles we've seen so far I think it's more likely we're looking at a scum team of 3 rather than 4 since they wont have to worry about a cop.

If there are 4 non town I think it's split up like this 10v3v1 rather than 10v4. So right now we're either looking at 9v2 or 8v2v1.

Cloud and Blackhoof I have town reads on.
Cloud looked bad to me early game but since then has made a lot of solid calls and reads IMO.

Blackhoof was solid early game and I like that he at least started to see what I was talking about with Peace but since then he's been kind of quiet.

I dunno if he's just being lazy or if this is a tactic to maybe draw a nightkill or what. Regardless I still trust him enough to call out a town read on him.

My scum reads are Elf, Via, Peace, Tommy, and Krak.

Yes I know, it's half the game, sue me.

If you want I will list them from scummiest to non scummiest: Peace, Tommy, Via, Elf, Krak.

I list Krak here only because I've been made unsure of him. I was leaning town on him for a long time but many people seem to think he's scum and that position has rubbed off on me to the point where I'm no longer sure. I guess you guys are seeing something I'm not here. If you want you can call him neutral in my lists although I don't think there is room for neutral anymore. Elf and Via just haven't participated enough imo. It's not so much what they say but in this case what they aren't saying. I wont claim to have any solid read on them because I don't but their low activity makes me distrust them enough to count them as potential scum. Via is a replacement and I gave her a break as such for quite awhile and haven't mentioned her activity but Key is a replacement to and her participation far outstrips Via's so I feel like it's fair game again. I thought Elf was doing really good in the early game so I don't know what happened. I think Turin called Tommy right from the start, scum trying to lead town. I chalked it up at the time as just showmanship while meeting new people and maybe being a hyper/fun person but the longer the game goes on the more I see it in a different light. If you look at the votecounts he's in the middle on Goldeneyes which is a prime spot for scum to jump on at for a bus (surrounded by Turin and Leelou who we now know both as town) and he's at the very start on Hallia's train. Interesting to note that my final and most solid pick for scum was at the start of Goldeneyes train, the prime spot for a bus vote imo, and only one vote behind Tommy on Hallia's train. Remember he was voting Hallia despite having cased ME far better than he did HER. I also want to note that Tommy and Peace have had some small spats, especially in the early game, that they both walked away from. I want to note that because if you look at my own disagreements with Peace, even before they turned personal, he wouldn't drop it and kept coming back again and again. So it's just an interesting interaction that they got in each others faces on multiple occasions and then both backed off. And of course I have many other reasons for suspecting Peace but there is no need to rehash them in this post.

Nolder · January 8, 2014

Right now I would be willing to lynch Peace, Tommy, or Via.

I strongly prefer Peace or Tommy because they are my actual reads whereas Via is just inactivity but I'll still go for her if Key and BFG think that's a good idea.

peacesells · January 8, 2014

Nolder, why didn't you claim doctor when you were 3 hours from a lynch as the largest train? You looked for all intents and purposes dead in the water.

Nolder · January 8, 2014

It wouldn't have made any sense to claim at that time.

I know most towns DO let claims like that go, but they shouldn't.

Each situation is different of course but just because someone claims power role, especially one as unverifiable as doctor on day 1, does not mean they should be let off the hook.

That sort of play leads to Mafia running up trains, getting claims, and then backing down until most of the power roles are either outed directly or are left among just a couple vanillas.

It made more sense to address the reason I was on the hook for in the first place which was largely lack of contribution and hope for the best since I'd be practically worthless if I was outed on Day 1. Turns out I made the right decision.

peacesells · January 8, 2014

That's a high risk to lose a PR.

Nolder · January 8, 2014

As I said, I've seen that type of play lead to worse and I no longer subscribe to it.

If I claim my role these days I try to make it count for something other than saving my own skin.

Most of the time anyway, that is not a catch all.

Blackhoof · January 8, 2014

Looks like Via is the way to go for today, imo.

@ Hoof - yes. Why good?

another confirmed townie of course

Krak > Via > Hoof > Peace. Lynch these people in this order and we will the game. I really can't put it any clearer than this.

Leelou - she was pinging quite a bit to begin with: lots of jokey / spammy posts that didn't add anything to the game, apart from a bit of back and forth with nolder: no comenting on the other stuff that was going on. her reads she did on page 21 bring it back to a null at this point.

Via posted plenty of information in her case, but she didn’t bother analyzing any of it except a couple of quotes regarding Tom, and even then she doesn’t go as far as actually calling him scum. She has been doing this ever since she subbed and it’s what makes me believe that she is fake scumhunting.

The whole elf-on-peace and cloud-on-elf seems to have gone on for longer than they needed to, but I put this down to not very many people being about over Christmas

Once again she posts no analysis. She is only mentioning that these events took place but doesn’t take the time to explain what they mean to her and what her reads are of the people involved.

I felt it was a bit of a wishy-washy read (particularly the bit I've bolded - it seems a half hearted ping) then the prompt for peace to move his vote from golden. I beleive that this is how the vote count looked at the point Tommy posted this: Golden with most votes and leelou saying that she oule be comfortable voting him as well.

She only calls Tom out for being wishy washy with one of his reads. I don’t see how this makes him scum, and yet this is her only read on a player so far that isn’t null.

In her next post she does expand her reasoning why she is suspicious of Tom and Nolder, and even though I don’t agree with her reads, her reasoning is solid enough.

Not quite sure what to make of this fight.... seems like they are misunderstanding each other quite a bit. Both have been scummy to me at times but that is counterbalanced recently by the Golden lynch mainly. Most likely town-on-town fighting I think.

As for Krak's case on Hallia, it is interesting because they are both pretty high on my list. Krak could very well be bussing her but I'm not sure.... I am content to lynch Hallia and see how she flips. She has not been acting townish at all, and her constant niceness could very well just be mafia sort of-buddying.

You are so wishy washy in this game, Hoof. You keep changing your mind every other post, and often even in the same post. You can’t lay out a case or explain your reasoning while going back and forth between possible explanations that each could end up making sense in the long run, and expect other people to read you as town. You aren’t coming to conclusions, and instead you are getting lost in WIFOM. Even now you say that you changed your mind about Krak being scum while you still found him suspicious in this post. I really think you can be a good mafia player if you only tried to improve on these things, but right now I keep going back and forth between town and mafia with you (which is quite ironic) and so I have decided to not give you the benefit of the doubt anymore and just throw you in with the rest of my scum reads.

here was quite a lot of distracting posts: the krak-cloud thing and the peace-nolder thing, a good bit of spamming in the middle, and some anger at DM as well

put together it meant the only person that really got any attention was hallia.

Again, no analysis.

Golden voting Nolder day 1 = bussing?

Peace in prime scum voting position on both trains?

Myself looking terrible with not voting anyone D1 and a flipped innocent D2.

Elf with her slamma hamma D1 and voting an outlier D2.

Cloud looking scummy with his vote positioning and after-the-fact "told ya so."

Nolder wasting his vote on both lynches.

Via not looking great for her D1 position and D2 abstention.

Hoof and Tommy looking alright.

And wtf is this post supposed to accomplish? You are FoSing everyone except Hoof and Tom, and even then you don’t care enough to list your scum and town reads.

*edited for spelling mistakes

I would have to reread to see if your accusation of no analysis applies to Via, but I am willing to vote her for the inactivity anyway. ##vote Via

The bold stuck out a bit though. You question why wishy-washiness makes him scum and then level the same charge against me? (well-earned, I know)

But wishy-washiness is not rerally a scum-tell to my mind.

Either Hoof or Peace could still be town, but not both of them. That's why I have 4 scum reads. You and Via are mafia though.

*spelling.

hey, I was called out for this exact same reasoning, by you even.

Krak, let's make a deal. We lynch Via today and if she ends up flipping town I will back away from my case on you.

Deal?

Nope, don't like that at all. Uber-scummy right there. If you are mafia of course you know if they are both town.

Hoof has been changing his mind about his reads with every other post. I agreed with the things Nolder said about Peace at the start of Day 2, but I skimmed over their recent fight because it was going nowhere. You can ISO me and you will see that I have explained my reads several times why I think these people are scum.

true true, but is that scummy? I think not

Blackhoof · January 8, 2014

As I said, I've seen that type of play lead to worse and I no longer subscribe to it.

If I claim my role these days I try to make it count for something other than saving my own skin.

Most of the time anyway, that is not a catch all.

I disagree with you that it is bad play. If a PR is about to get themselves lynched, surely it is better to claim than die? It is not ideal by any means, but it is a confirmed townie, hardly useless.

Nolder · January 8, 2014

As I said, I've seen that type of play lead to worse and I no longer subscribe to it.

If I claim my role these days I try to make it count for something other than saving my own skin.

Most of the time anyway, that is not a catch all.

I disagree with you that it is bad play. If a PR is about to get themselves lynched, surely it is better to claim than die? It is not ideal by any means, but it is a confirmed townie, hardly useless.

Well you've practically answered your own question.

In my case specifically I wouldn't have been confirmed (I'm still not) so that counts for nothing here.

As for any PR claiming to get out of being lynched, it is definitely situational and I am not saying never do it.

I am saying it should not be the default response to being lynched. As I outlined before a town that runs people up, gets a claim, and then backs down and moves on is only creating a tool the mafia can use to exploit them and out most or all of their roles. Additionally there is no reason to believe any claim in most cases. This is part of the situational thing but do you not think that a mafia who was being ran up on day 1 would claim cop or doc to try to out them for their team? That is the standard tactic. If I claimed doctor, why believe me? It's in towns interest for the real doctor not to counter and reveal themselves so early right? So it's not like there would be a CC if I was fake and mafia would have played up that angle to push my lynch. I was at L-1 so it's not like it would have taken much. These are why I did not claim then and why I think that was the right move.

Elaevia · January 8, 2014

ok, so if we beleive Nolder (which I'm happy to go with for now)

that maked the game look like this

01 - Peace

02 - Cloud

03 - Krak

04 - GoldenEyes - Maffia Goon - lynched D1

05 - TommyRod

06 - Leelou - Town Masons - killed N2

07 - Key - Claiming Leelou's Mason partner

08 - Elffern

09 - Hally - Vanilla Town - lynched D2

10 - BFG - Innocent Child

11 - Via

12 - Nolder - Claiming Doc

13 - BlackHoof

14 - Turin - Vanilla Town - killed N1

Nolder being town makes me feel better about Tommy being town: he would have been in a very defensible position to hammer Nolder on day 1 (deadline looking, no-one else within a couple of votes of being lynched etc) but instead he voted for a mafia member.

peace, cloud, krak, elf, hoof then.

Elf's D1 posts come accross as town to me - she hasn't posted to the same amount since (dropping off of activity would usually draw my attention a bit) but we know why that was, so that turns into a null - so going with a town read on elf.

Cloud - started the game with very strong - almost agressive (that's not quite the right word but can't think of what I mean at the moment) - posts, but the tone of his posts has changed to less confrontational and more ananysis driven. This coupled with his insistance that Golden and I had a faked interaction back me lean town on him (because those statements would be difficult for a mafia member to back away from after I am dead) - he sounds too sure.

And now I have to go to work, but I have narrowed my list of suspects to peace, krak and hoof - (in no particular order, they are in the order they are in the player list)

csarmi · January 8, 2014

…

The music stops and you pause to take a look around. Is someone missing? You could swear there were more of you.

…

The game is paused. Do not post.

csarmi · January 8, 2014

...

You find Elf in one of the side rooms, passed out. Clearly, she's been drinking too much and won't be joining the party again.

...

Elf, Vanilla Town has fallen asleep.

Day 3 continues. With 9 at the party, it takes 5 to lynch. Votes have been reset.

No deadline set yet.

csarmi · January 8, 2014

Yay! That's my first modkill ever.

csarmi · January 8, 2014

The votes have been reset. For voting and deadline purposes I count this as a restart of the day. The game continues.

Please note that in case of any further modkills, the same approach may be taken, but it's not guaranteed, it will be decided on a case by case basis.

Blackhoof · January 8, 2014

Well that was a good response from via, she certainly is analysing. It is a start.

Since elf is town, that leaves cloud, tommy, via, krak and peace.

Two of them must be mafia.

Out of all, I think thst I will go for krak

##vote krak

[Basic] Christmas Mentors & Maffia

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