[Advanced] Settlers of Catan Mafia - Game Over

[hazelkrs1]

Fwiw, I did just die in another game, so that's one less I have to worry about now. Gonna try and take another look at things after audit

[Nolder]

6 and a half hours to deadline.

[hazelkrs1]

Wonderful. Looks like I'm getting cloudfared on my laptop.

 

 

I was wrong about BFG tho. Looks like it's Golden, BFG, and Pray. Hopefully my post didn't get completely deleted so I can show what I found.

[hazelkrs1]

Six hours to go... need 3 more on Golden. Come on peoples.

[hazelkrs1]

Hell yeah! Post recovered! I you "Preview Post" button

 

---

 

Okay so through POE, the remaining scum are between Goldeneyes, Pray and BFG. Figured that since it's a small pool anyways, there's not much point to rereading the entire thread. Gonna review some iso's on the three, and see if BFG might be right in that it's only a two man mafia team (I'm gonna come back to this point later) in which case one of them might be town. Otherwise, that could be the scum team, meaning we couldn't go wrong lynching any of em really.
 
Anyways, I did first go back to check VC's:
 

Votecount
Cloud - Verbal, Andrej, Darthe, Blackhoof, Ishy, Des (6)
Blackhoof - Cloud, Wombat (2)
Pralaya - Goldeneyes (1)
 
Not voting: Pralaya, BFG
 
With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

That's a lynch.

 
So this is interesting. Might be the first time I've gone back to do a VC analysis and seen an entire townie train on D1. Of course this does sort of make sense considering how we had to scramble to secure a lynch - scum team wouldn't have cared much about securing a lynch, since us missing one would have just led to town continuing to be confused and irritated. And there's no random lynch this game, so they wouldn't have had anything to worry about should it have gone to deadline without a lynch.
 
Also GE has his vote parked on Pray, like he has most of the game. Think the scum team decided beforehand to have a gambit between Pray and Golden, GE may have been using genuine anger @ Pray from last game to try and make it seem more convincing. However, I think GE messed up in making his attacks too emotional, exposed the ploy for what it was imo.
 

Votecount
Goldeneyes - BFG, Pralaya, Andrej (3)
Blackhoof - Wombat, Ishy, Verbal (3)
Verbal - Des, Blackhoof, Goldeneyes (3)
 
Not voting:
 
With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
 
Deadline: Friday 8PM PST

 
This is interesting- both BFG and Pray have their votes on GE in the middle of D2, this is before Verb claimed Doc. Being that there is a 3 way tie here I thought the next couple of votes could be telling.
 

Ok, none of the trains are going anywhere right now. 
 
Golden - I'm voting you because you seemed to be nudging the trains yesterday (by asking for a deadline) yet apparently never intended to switch votes to secure a lynch (I'd still appreciate clarification on what you were aiming for with this).  However the last two votes aren't great, Pral's at least following up on a mafia read, but the last set of reads AJ gave, have you as Town, while Blackhoof is an outlier for him, so.
 
unvote
 

 

Vote: Cloud
 
Too jokey this time.  Making up for last game.  Gotcha x2.

 
I'm trying to change my meta. Is it working?

 

 
Maybe nothing, but it was Cloud that brought meta into discussion way back at the start of Day 1, and this is pretty much the only 'mafia hunting' Verb tries Day 1 (I know I'm one to talk)
 

Vote: Cloud
 
Too jokey this time.  Making up for last game.  Gotcha x2.

 
 

Who am I OMGUSing?  And yes, that was fear mongering.  Blind lynching before a reveal is sloopy & poor play.  For somebody that doesn't usually promote sloppy play, I'm quite surprised you seem ok with calling me out for being right.  You do advocate poor play lots of times - all one has to do is read some of your posts.
 
And remember my comment about manipulating metas when I eventually have a coroner report on me (whenever that may be).  I'll be the guy in back saying "I told you so".
 
As for the stupid whymefryme, whatever that is supposed to be:  you'll need to explain how I'm doing that.  I'm not even really defending myself here.  Helpful townie?  No sh*it.  I'm a townie.  I'm trying to be helpful.  Amazing, amirite?

 
I like the changing story - here he agrees it's fearmongering, implying it's a softclaim (if it wasn't a softclaim it wouldn't be fearmongering)
 
Also nice AtE
 

 

I don't like Verbal's softclaim... at like, 2 votes. way premature
 
unvote 
vote verbal
 
if you have a claim, make it, don't hint at one. it leaves it nicely open for you to avoid having to claim a role and possibly be counter-claimed.

 
That's a joke, right?  2 votes with 5 to lynch.  I would not consider L-3 to be "way premature".......would you?
 
This is easily a scum bangwagon vote.  I called you out as likely scum before, but now I'm more solid on you than either Des or Wombat (both of those have shown a few town tendencies mixed in).
 
Unvote
Vote: Hoof

 

 
Also another implication that it was a soft-claim by stating that L-3 isn't too early to claim.
 

Also, at what point did I "softclaim" a role?  I just said allow me to reveal and don't blind lynch.  That is simply mafia 101 - you get reveals when you have competing trains and time before a deadline.  Blind lynching is simply lazy and poor play.
 
I don't see how this equates to me softclaiming something.  You keep using that word.  I don't think it means what you think it means.  ;-)

 
But now he wasn't soft-claiming
 

 

Eh. Pral's lookin for an excuse to point fingers at me, don't care, I have a null read on him. I went through every player's comments in this game one by one. Black hoof and verbal were my strongest scum reads. Of the two, I think verbal is better at manipulating people so I probably read his comments with extra scrutiny I'll admit that. Hoof is scummy, but if he really is mafia, then he is very bad at hiding it. I've got a town read on wombat. I think some of his posts are beyond nitpicking grammar and I disagree with him at times, but I think he's just scumhunting. Even if he dislikes the length of my post. Dunno about Des, I have him pegged as scum adjacent, but I always think he's scummy due to his propensity for flying off the handle. Similarly I have a hard time with Ishy. I have him as town right now, but I trust him less than anyone because I can't get a straight read on him with all the sarcasm. Bfg- town with good scumhunting. Aj- null.

 
Pretty sure either you or Pralaya is scum.  The interaction seems weird based on both your play thus far.  If I had to choose....
 
Scum:
Hoof
Wombat or Des
Pralaya or Golden

 

 
Another strange comment.  The purpose for Town is to find the mafia.
 
I'm gonna look through Blackhoof's more recent contributions and see how I feel about voting.

 

 
 

Blackhoof seems mostly just uncertain.  He's looking better Day2 than Day 1, whereas Verb doesn't seem to be playing.
 
vote Verb
 
 
and I'm off to bed and am highly unlikely to be around for the lynch.

 
BFG does a good job here of justifying her vote switch to Verb. I agreed that Verb seemed off earlier in the game, but it seems he just enjoys looking scummy early in games lately. Anyways, don't like how BFG says the trains aren't going anywhere to justify moving her vote off of GE, and the reasons she give for her initial vote on him looks pretty sketchy at this point, looks like she was trying to make it seem like the case on him wasn't ever strong to begin with. It also seems odd to me that she tries to use Cloud's flip as town against Verbal.
 

unvote vote Hoof
 
That should put both trains at 4 apiece. I'm not willing to vote Verb based on the soft-claim, regardless of it's scummy behavior or not. If he happens to actually be a PR and we lynch him, well... you get the idea. It will work itself out eventually anyway, there are other options and it isn't like anyone will forget if he continues to survive the Night phases.
 
I'm back and forth with Hoof. Some of those on his wagon I'm a little suspect of so I want to see his flip.

 
AJ switches his vote to Hoof to keep the trains even
 

Jesus, some people just don't get the finesse in mafia.

Unvote your damn Doc, please.

 
Verbal claims...
 
 

 

EAD Aj, that's straight doo doo hiding a sheeping vote as a joke. Pral's vote is omgus, but at least he bothered to show up today and make an attempt at playing. BFG's vote is based on a feeling I'm trying to get townie credit. Well yeah, if you're trying to make sense of things and find scum, that's a town move. I expect more from you. Wombat, next time I'll make sure to try less. Evidently coasting and making snarky comments gets you to the next day in this game and actually putting in some effort to show what you're talking about  gets you lynched. Scum is running the discussion here, you try you die.

 
Well, what? I was voting Leelou before you were even born this game. 
 
Anyway, Verbal claims, deadline extended. WIll be back in a couple of hours.For now, I am good with where my vote is.

 

 
This is Pray's next post after Verbal's claim. Continues the charade between him and Golden. Leaves his vote where it is, presumably because the deadline was extended.
 

Unvote, Vote Golden.

Lot to respond to, but where did I defend BFG? I don't remember doing that...

Meh @ Verbal's claim. Could be a ploy to out the real doc.

 
Here's where I switch to Golden.
 
 

 

Unvote, Vote Golden.

Lot to respond to, but where did I defend BFG? I don't remember doing that...

Meh @ Verbal's claim. Could be a ploy to out the real doc.

 
Nice reasoning. I find it interesting you could probably post a 40 page essay about your menu choices at Golden Corral, yet your explanation for my vote is a "feeling" and encompasses all of one line. For you, that's equivalent to a vow of silence and reeks.
 
Why did I get aggro? Two points here. 1- Easy, I get sick of townies who post "meh, vote for me and when I flip you'll be sorry." If you're a townie and you're in real danger you should start kicking and screaming. While a townie flip gives information, this is a game of numbers and you have a responsibility to fight. I've only played once before, but it still makes me really mad that we lost 2 town players day 1 because neither of them (Pral) bothered to show up and say "hey guys, I am town and here's my read on why I'm getting pushed."
 
You might recall that last game I had to claim Cop on Day 2, which sucked. The only reason I even got that close to being lynched was I stayed quiet hoping I wouldn't have to claim, which I knew would save me.
 
Why should you have the market cornered on being loud? You're basing your vote on a 1 game meta when I was the Cop, smart move. 2-Hitting me for being moody the last couple days is a low move dude, since you already know someone tried to mug me. I suspect you only made that comment to piss me off. It worked.
 
Unvote Verbal
I'm unwilling to test if he's lying about being the Doc.
 
I already stated he was my next scum read:
Vote Hoof

 

 
And then GE responds with the premature hammer. Looks to me like Pray didn't want to get his hands dirty and wanted to stay off of a townie lynch (just like he did D1, when he didnt; vote before the deadline because he didn't have a scum read on Cloud...), but when I vote GE, he hammers Hoof to make sure that the lynch doesn't swing to him.

 

Votecount
Verbal - BFG (1)
Goldeneyes - Pralaya, Des (2)
Blackhoof - Wombat, Ishy, Verbal, Andrej, Goldeneyes (5)

 
Not voting: Blackhoof
 
With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
 
Deadline: Friday 8PM PST

That's a lynch

 
So BFG's vote was still on Verb at the end of D1. These are her next few posts after Verbal's claim:

 

 

 

Blackhoof seems mostly just uncertain.  He's looking better Day2 than Day 1, whereas Verb doesn't seem to be playing.
 
vote Verb
 
 
and I'm off to bed and am highly unlikely to be around for the lynch.

 
Putting Verb at L - 1 for dubious reasons then peacing out.  AWESOME!

 

 
um, was gone 4 in the morning over here, so I revoted in an effort to help achieve a lynch, on the person that was looking worse to me, before I disappeared. 
 
 

Also, note that BFG claims that she's going to take a look at Hoof and get back to us after her trumped up WoT on Verb. We get half a sentence saying something about Hoof just looks uncertain or something. She made her mind up a long time ago, after a discussion in the QT. Lynch this turkey tomorrow.

 
Because Hoof hadn't added anything I thought warranted comment on since my last search on him, also, see above about the time.

 

 
Only defends herself really, doesn't talk about GE, who she had her vote on previously, doesn't mention Verbal's doc claim, doesn't mention how she thinks Hoof will flip or what she thinks of GE's premature hammer.
 

lol

 
Ishy says she'll be lynched tomorrow, BFG just laughs
 
Gonna just link her next posts: Here and here she makes two wot cases against AJ, makes it look like she's rereading, right? Once again btw, she continues to not mention Verbal's claim, Hoof's flip, or GE's hammer.
 

Am I right that we're probably at lylo?

 
Then here she is apparently current with the game, as she asks if we're at lylo
 

and what have I missed

And yet with her immediate next post she asks what she missed...

 

So she missed Verbal's claim apparently, then didn't get a chance to move her vote before the lynch happened, then afterwards she makes these big cases against AJ, yet still apparently is not caught up? Why would a townie that's not up-to-date with the current events be worried about going through and casing someone? They wouldn't, unless they had just replaced into the game and were catching up. If BFG was town, it's hard for me to believe she'd start doing a reread before first following up on all the recent events. And then even tho she voted GE before ever switching to Verb, and even tho he came in with a sketchy hammer, she starts casing AJ instead of taking a closer look at Golden.

 

I also remember her making a long post not too long ago which made me rethink my read on Golden, she defended him pretty well. And even more recently, she pleaded with me to take my vote off of Golden.

 

And this brings me back to the 2 man team idea that BFG put forward. She earlier asked if we were at lylo, assuming (or knowing) that the scum team was on the verge of winning. Yet after Pray sits at L-1 for a while, BFG puts forward the idea that there are only two scum, so that they may not have been able to hammer him. So within this current day phase, she has strong defended Golden, after voting him earlier in the game, and soft-defends Pray, who she seemed to largely ignore most of the game.

 

So I'm glad I went back and checked, this compells me to rescind my town read on BFG. I am impressed, however, that she was able to fool me as long as she did. She did a good job of looking like she was truly scumhunting and trying to figure things out.

 

Anyways, gonna keep my vote on Golden, cause BFG seemed really concerned with keeping him alive. I'd bet he's the PR of their team. Not only that, but he's seemed off to me all game, has acted COMPLETELY different this game from how he acted as town in his last game (more aggressive, more emo), and it seems like he has ducked me most of the game. Plus, as if we even needed more, Darthe died N1, and Wombat already mentioned that if Darthe died, Leelou prob submitted it.

 

Golden, BFG, and Pray. Book it.

[hazelkrs1]

Took forever for it to post but it finally did. Wha happened DM?!

[BFG]

vote Pral

 

at the moment I'm not sure how the team works out, but I don't believe it's a Des/Golden/Ishy team so if it's a 3 man team must include Pral. 

 

I'm still wondering if there's anything in the odd/even Night kill/no kill thing. 

[BFG]

ok Des's case

BFG does a good job here of justifying her vote switch to Verb. I agreed that Verb seemed off earlier in the game, but it seems he just enjoys looking scummy early in games lately. Anyways, don't like how BFG says the trains aren't going anywhere to justify moving her vote off of GE, and the reasons she give for her initial vote on him looks pretty sketchy at this point, looks like she was trying to make it seem like the case on him wasn't ever strong to begin with. It also seems odd to me that she tries to use Cloud's flip as town against Verbal.

 

I'm not sure where you're getting that I'm using Clouds flip against Verb - I was pointing out that his mafia hunting Day 1 was essentially saying that Cloud was 'too jokey'. 

Yes, it was about 4 in the morning, I needed to get to sleep and wasn't going to be around at deadline to move my vote if needed then.

 

So BFG's vote was still on Verb at the end of D1

 

Because I wasn't online to unvote after Verb claimed at 5 in the morning.

 

Only defends herself really, doesn't talk about GE, who she had her vote on previously, doesn't mention Verbal's doc claim, doesn't mention how she thinks Hoof will flip or what she thinks of GE's premature hammer.

Because I was waiting for Hoof's flip. 

 

 

Once again btw, she continues to not mention Verbal's claim, Hoof's flip, or GE's hammer.

 

Because I wasn't sure if I believed the claim, but didn't seem mentioning unless we had other claims, I didn't want to waste more time on Verbs claim after day 2.  Nope and yes

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/86235-advanced-settlers-of-catan-mafia-day-3/page-31?do=findComment&comment=3108399  the bit talking on Golden.  Started looking at AJ because his vote looked sketchy to me.

 

 

And yet with her immediate next post she asks what she missed...

 

People were posting while I was writing the case on AJ, I meant what had I missed while posting, as should be obvious by the next few posts which, you know addressed what had happened while I was looking for the quotes on AJ.

In fact #490 http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/86235-advanced-settlers-of-catan-mafia-day-3/page-25?do=findComment&comment=3106078 (what have I missed)

#491 http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/86235-advanced-settlers-of-catan-mafia-day-3/page-25?do=findComment&comment=3106083 what I'd missed

#494 http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/86235-advanced-settlers-of-catan-mafia-day-3/page-25?do=findComment&comment=3106099 a follow up on what I'd missed

 

I also remember her making a long post not too long ago which made me rethink my read on Golden, she defended him pretty well. And even more recently, she pleaded with me to take my vote off of Golden.

 

And this brings me back to the 2 man team idea that BFG put forward. She earlier asked if we were at lylo, assuming (or knowing) that the scum team was on the verge of winning. Yet after Pray sits at L-1 for a while, BFG puts forward the idea that there are only two scum, so that they may not have been able to hammer him. So within this current day phase, she has strong defended Golden, after voting him earlier in the game, and soft-defends Pray, who she seemed to largely ignore most of the game.

 

To do with Golden, I don't like his play, I don't think he's been as logical this time as last game but he doesn't fit onto any of the teams I can come up with.  Last game I had you/Ishy/Peace as a team through looking at possible teams and then ignored it because I found Errs play as an individual worse.  So this time I'm going to go with teams that make sense instead, even if logically I disagree with almost all his points word for word.

The reason I was looking for different possibilities was because with the information I had at the time 3 man teams were unlikely.  I'm still not convinced, but if there is a 3 man squad Pral has to be on it.

 

(The lol was partly because his 'case' was based on the fact that it didn't take me long to look through Hoofs posts since the last time I'd looked at him and partly because he called me lovely.)

[hazelkrs1]

Don't really have time to respond to that atm, but the way I figure it BFG, you're either right that it's a 2 man scum team, or you're scum yourself.

 

Anyways, in the hopes of achieving a lynch and because I'm fairly certain Pray is scum (POE + his weak defense @ Golden's attacks could have been cause he knew it was staged):

 

Unvote, Vote Pray

[Nolder]

Votecount

Pralaya - Goldeneyes, BFG, Des (3)

Des - Ishy, Wombat (2)

 

Not voting: Pralaya, Verbal

 

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: Friday 8AM PST

 

Deadline has been moved up to Friday morning.

[Pralaya]

So, one more opportunity for the scum to hammer. 

 

I think Wombat may be right, It could very well be a 2-man scum team because of the unwillingness of the scum to hammer.

 

IN any case, there are 2-possibilities

 

1. A 3-man scum team: This would mean that today is LyLo. And, the scum team is Ishy/GE/Des because I was hammered earlier. In any case, this would be known soon enough 

 

2. A 2-man scum team: This would mean today is not LyLo. Which would mean the reluctance of the scum to hammer. Probably waiting for the deadline excuse to send in the hammer. 

At the same time, this would also mean that 3 town PRs is improbable. Otherwise, town is overpowered. Which would mean that GE's claim is fake (being the most improbable among the three) and he has to be the scum.

 

In either case, GE stands out as the obvious scum. 

 

The other scum could either be Des/BFG. In a 2-man scum team, I am fine with two town PR (without a cop). In any case, that can be seen later

 

vote GE

[Nolder]

Votecount

Pralaya - Goldeneyes, BFG, Des (3)

Des - Ishy, Wombat (2)

Goldeneyes - Pralaya (1)

 

Not voting: Verbal

 

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: Friday 8AM PST

 

Deadline has been moved up to Friday morning.

[Pralaya]

Anyway, Des trying to put me and GE in the scum team. Absolutely no words. 

Because the scum strategy was to tunnel each other all the 3 days and do absolutely nothing else, right? 

[WWWwombat]

Why are you voting alone again?  Deadline is in 30 minutes.  Cut the crap.

[Pralaya]

unvote vote Des

 

Because I don't see Des as confirmed scum. But there seems to be no alternative now. GE was the obvious vote.

[Nolder]

Votecount

Pralaya - Goldeneyes, BFG, Des (3)

Des - Ishy, Wombat, Pralaya (3)

 

Not voting: Verbal

 

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: Friday 8AM PST

 

Deadline has been moved up to Friday morning.

[Verbal32]

WTF, I have to be the tiebreaker?

[Verbal32]

I agreed that Verb seemed off earlier in the game, but it seems he just enjoys looking scummy early in games lately.

 

Btw, thank you for noticing this, hehe.  100% true.  ;-)

[Verbal32]

Great, my #1 and #2 for the last day or so are my options.....

[Verbal32]

Ugh.  Not going to second guess myself over and over.  If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

 

YOLO

 

Vote: Des

[Nolder]

omg finally I'm so tired

[Nolder]

Votecount

Pralaya - Goldeneyes, BFG, Des (3)

Des - Ishy, Wombat, Pralaya, Verbal (4)

 

Not voting:

 

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: Friday 8AM PST

 

Deadline has been moved up to Friday morning.

 

That's a lynch.

[Nolder]

sorry guys I'm dead tired I gotta sleep, update in like 8-15 hours

[WWWwombat]

0/10

[Nolder]

Just kidding