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 A WHEEL OF TIME COMMUNITY

[Advanced] Settlers of Catan Mafia - Game Over

Nolder

By Nolder
in DM Mafia Games

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Verbal32 Spam Master

Verbal32

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Posted

 

 

 

Ok, way back I said that I was pretty sure either Wombat or Des was scum.  I stick to that thought - recent posts by both have made me lean more town on Des and more scum on Wombat.

 

Vote: Wombat

 

Modkill puts us at LyLo and you immediately vote a townie, opening us up to a scum blitz.  Starting to think we don't have a doc and you skipped the NK last night.

 

 

Also, Pralaya already has 2 votes.....the blitz would come there, not on your measly 1 vote.

 

Hmmm.....is Pral a scummate of yours?  Did we just get a 2-fer?  LOL.

 

 

If you're going to keep pretending to be thick, I'm going to ignore you.  Pralaya could very easily be scum or both of the guys on his train could very easily be scum (although I don't think that last one is true).

 

 

Don't try and dance away from this.  You said scum could blitz with my solo vote.....but Pralaya already had 2 votes.  This means Pral would be scum, as you conveniently skipped considering a "blitz" on his train instead.

 

Your logic is missing completely.  You're totally scum here.

 

What I'm not 100% on is whether you ignored Pralaya because you wanted to harass me instead as the Doc.....or if Pralaya is your teammate.

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Verbal32 Spam Master

Verbal32

Posted
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Posted

Guys, please unvote Pralaya and consider what I'm saying.  Re-read the back and forth with Wombat and I before voting anybody else.

 

I really think Wombat is scum, and potentially teamed up with Pralaya.....but if we're wrong on that, we lose.

 

I'd rather lynch Wombat.

BFG Spam Master

BFG

Posted
Posted

BFG is seriously convinced I'm scum, ain't she?

 

After you called me lovely and everything.

 

If I was seriously convinced I'd be voting you.

 

I'm starting to question if it's a 3 man mafia team though.

 

Based on whose been voting who since everyone's posted (again for now assuming a 3 man team)

 

Either Wombat or Verb must be mafia.  If Wombat and Verb were both town then the mafia would have piled on and won.

 

By the same measure

 

Either Pral or Golden and either Pral or Ishy must be mafia by the same logic. 

(and also Verb can't be in a team with Ishy/Golden cos he could have hammered by now)

 

So unless the mafia are just

 

That leaves:

Verb/Wombat/Pral

Wombat/Des/Pral

Wombat/Golden/Pral

Verb/Ishy/Pral

Verb/Des/Pral

Verb/Golden/Pral

Wombat/Ishy/Golden

Wombat/Ishy/Pral

 

Crossed out teams that have a member voting for Pral and also Verb/Wombat/Pral unlikely for the same reason.

 

So

 

Wombat/Ishy/Golden

 

is the most likely 3 man team (I think)

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Verbal32 Spam Master

Verbal32

Posted
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Posted

BFG, you're assuming people are available to hammer.  It is entirely possible that scum could win right now but they aren't online....

BFG Spam Master

BFG

Posted
Posted

Actually I left Des or Pral off for that reason, since not everyone's posted since he voted.

 

I'm sure my logics screwed somewhere tho.

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Verbal32 Spam Master

Verbal32

Posted
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Posted

Hmm, ok.  Well Pralaya won't hammer himself, lol, and I'm still thinking Des is town due to Wombat looking like scum.  I really don't think both are scum, although it is possible.

 

I'm thinking Wombat/Pralaya as my most likely 2 scum.  If there are 3, I'm admittedly not sure at all on the 3rd.

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Verbal32 Spam Master

Verbal32

Posted
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Posted

I. Viewed. Wom. He's Town.

 

Jesus.

 

Forgot about you.

 

Do you realize at lylo is it possible that you're scum with Wombat and claiming this with the knowledge that you only need to make this work for today's lynch?

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Verbal32 Spam Master

Verbal32

Posted
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Posted

Unvote

 

I want to think more on this.  If Ishy is telling the truth, then Pralaya is most likely scum and Wombat was just a turd for ignoring his 2 votes and focusing on my 1 vote.

 

However, that is a big detail for Wombat to overlook, and it makes me wonder if Wombat/Ishy/Pralaya isn't the entire scum team right there.

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Verbal32 Spam Master

Verbal32

Posted
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Posted

I. Viewed. Wom. He's Town.

 

Jesus.

 

What are your thoughts around Wombat giving me crap about my solo vote regarding that "scum blitz" when Pralaya already had 2 votes?  Seems a big slip to make there, and not one I'd expect Wombat to make.

BFG Spam Master

BFG

Posted
Posted

@verb - :dry: you're right about not everyone being online to hammer.  Golden hasn't been on since you voted Wombat.

 

 

that leaves a lot more options

 

unvote

John E. Kelley Master

John E. Kelley

Posted
Posted

 

I. Viewed. Wom. He's Town.

Jesus.

 

 

What are your thoughts around Wombat giving me crap about my solo vote regarding that "scum blitz" when Pralaya already had 2 votes?  Seems a big slip to make there, and not one I'd expect Wombat to make.

Laziness, annoyance, a momentary brain fart? No idea, and don't want to speculate and put words in his mouth. But I agree that he should explain his reasoning, and soon.

John E. Kelley Master

John E. Kelley

Posted
Posted

Ishy - did you get allignment or role back?

I was given his role, Catan Villager. And seeing as how AJ, Hoof and Dap all flipped the same, and were Town, that tells me what I need to know.

GoldeneyesND Community Regular

GoldeneyesND

Posted
Posted

@verb - :dry: you're right about not everyone being online to hammer.  Golden hasn't been on since you voted Wombat.

 

 

that leaves a lot more options

 

unvote

 

 

Um yeah, I think I'll not tolerate your remarks about not being online. Until recently you and Pral were invisible. My vote is on Pral and has been because I think he's scum. 

BFG Spam Master

BFG

Posted
Posted

 

@verb - :dry: you're right about not everyone being online to hammer.  Golden hasn't been on since you voted Wombat.

 

 

that leaves a lot more options

 

unvote

 

 

Um yeah, I think I'll not tolerate your remarks about not being online. Until recently you and Pral were invisible. My vote is on Pral and has been because I think he's scum. 

 

 

Um, read what I said again?

 

A factual statement that when I posted the above you hadn't posted in thread, nothing about your activity in general.  Therefore my original analysis that either Verb or Wombat had to be mafia was incorrect, that changes the likely teams, hence the unvote.

Pralaya Master

Pralaya

Posted
Posted

Unvote

 

I want to think more on this.  If Ishy is telling the truth, then Pralaya is most likely scum and Wombat was just a turd for ignoring his 2 votes and focusing on my 1 vote.

 

However, that is a big detail for Wombat to overlook, and it makes me wonder if Wombat/Ishy/Pralaya isn't the entire scum team right there.

 

I am town. You think if i am scum, my teammates would leave me vulnerable on a potential LyLo lynch? 

 

Putting this back again

 

:42 PM

Here are the votecounts so far on lynches/near lynches

 

Cloud - Verbal, Andrej, Darthe, Blackhoof, Ishy, Des 

Verbal - Des, Blackhoof, Goldeneyes, BFG

Blackhoof - Wombat, Ishy, Verbal, Andrej, Goldeneyes 

 

What is the probability that everyone on the Cloud train was town?

If Ishy is telling the truth, the Blackhoof lynch was also mostly town. 

Not buying it.

 

The three people on my train are scum. That is why I am not hammered yet. Des was just looking for an excuse to vote me. GE and Ishy pounced on a opportunity where I named them scum to come on me. Dont have any doubts now.

 

 

WWWwombat Spam Master

WWWwombat

Posted
Posted

Meh Vote Pray. Dunno if he's scum or not, but dude has been crazy inactive in too many games lately. Town is prob gonna lose anyways, might as well use this chance to punish someone when I can.

 

Lazy apathetic Des bandwagoning is scummy.  I want a roleclaim from you.

 

 

This is all I have - feel free to poke holes.

 

For 3 man teams.

 

To start with okhams razor on the Ishy/Wombat thing.  Simplest explanation is that Wombat is not mafia unless Ishy is as well.

 

That rules out

 

 

Verb/Wombat/Des

Verb/Wombat/Golden

Verb/Wombat/Pral

Wombat/Des/Golden

Wombat/Des/Pral

Wombat/Golden/Pral

 

 

 

Unfortunately after that it gets more circumstantial:

 

With current role claims I think it's unlikely that neither Verb nor Ishy are Town (this seemingly makes a very strong mafia team if Town have no PR at all, this changes if there are only 2 mafia)

 

That rules out

 

 

Verb/Ishy/Wombat

Verb/Ishy/Golden

Verb/Ishy/Pral

Verb/Ishy/Des

 

 

 

Des focused on verb a lot, likewise Pral/Golden.  Nominally I thus find teams with them as combinations unlikely, however, Verb was at L1 after he claimed for a while, both Ishy & Wombat were online and could have hammered, loss of 1 mafia might be worth it to take out the doc?  If Verb always planned to claim then could be a gambit between him & Des.  Pral/Golden I'm not so sure.  On the one hand if it was a gambit I'm not sure what the need is to continue it through today given that Town is all over the place.

 

 

 

So much more tentatively I find the following teams unlikely.

Verb/Des/Golden

Verb/Des/Pral

Verb/Golden/Pral

Des/Golden/Pral - of perhaps more interest as it means Verb/Ishy both telling the exact truth

Ishy/Golden/Pral

 

 

 

This means Verb is out of every remaining likely team and Ishy is in them.  However if Ishy is mafia then it means Town only have 1 PR at the moment and this also seems a strong mafia team.  It's possible that Nolders 'triggers' may counteract that though depending on how they worked, who they went to, etc, or it's possible that one of the others has a PR they're not sharing (obviously their call), or a 2 man team (plus maybe third party or symp), I don't really know what balances and what

doesn't.

 

That leaves:

 

 

Ishy/Wombat/Des

Ishy/Wombat/Golden

Ishy/Wombat/Pral

Ishy/Des/Golden

Ishy/Des/Pral

 

 

 

I'll look through 2 man combinations later and read through the thread again

 

You'll give yourself a headache doing that.  Also, most of your assumptions are pretty shaky.  Verb and Ishy could be mafia together (although I don't believe that atm).  Also, I'm not sure why you rule Verbal out as mafia citing me and Ishy not hammering him.  All that shows is that Ishy and I aren't stupid.

 

Just vote for who you think is scummy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ok, way back I said that I was pretty sure either Wombat or Des was scum.  I stick to that thought - recent posts by both have made me lean more town on Des and more scum on Wombat.

 

Vote: Wombat

 

Modkill puts us at LyLo and you immediately vote a townie, opening us up to a scum blitz.  Starting to think we don't have a doc and you skipped the NK last night.

 

 

Also, Pralaya already has 2 votes.....the blitz would come there, not on your measly 1 vote.

 

Hmmm.....is Pral a scummate of yours?  Did we just get a 2-fer?  LOL.

 

 

If you're going to keep pretending to be thick, I'm going to ignore you.  Pralaya could very easily be scum or both of the guys on his train could very easily be scum (although I don't think that last one is true).

 

 

Don't try and dance away from this.  You said scum could blitz with my solo vote.....but Pralaya already had 2 votes.  This means Pral would be scum, as you conveniently skipped considering a "blitz" on his train instead.

 

Your logic is missing completely.  You're totally scum here.

 

What I'm not 100% on is whether you ignored Pralaya because you wanted to harass me instead as the Doc.....or if Pralaya is your teammate.

 

 

And as I explained before, I don't know that Pral is town, or that both of the guys on his train aren't scum, so assuming scum would want to blitz him is dumb.  I do know that I am town though, which is why I was worried about a blitz on me.  And now that I haven't been blitzed, I'm thinking that either you are scum or scum isn't going to blitz today because they can't coordinate it.  And you're the one harassing here.  I hate you for making me explain this crap.

 

 

But actually either way

 

vote Wombat

 

Anti-town

 

 

Unvote

 

I want to think more on this.  If Ishy is telling the truth, then Pralaya is most likely scum and Wombat was just a turd for ignoring his 2 votes and focusing on my 1 vote.

 

However, that is a big detail for Wombat to overlook, and it makes me wonder if Wombat/Ishy/Pralaya isn't the entire scum team right there.

 

Pro-town.  And I didn't overlook anything, I decided not to speculate on things I don't know enough about.

 

 

 

@verb - :dry: you're right about not everyone being online to hammer.  Golden hasn't been on since you voted Wombat.

 

 

that leaves a lot more options

 

unvote

 

 

Um yeah, I think I'll not tolerate your remarks about not being online. Until recently you and Pral were invisible. My vote is on Pral and has been because I think he's scum. 

 

 

This is garbage.  First of all, you're way too defensive, which reeks of a guilty conscience.  BFG wasn't even attacking your activity level.  But you have been attacking Pralaya's.  In fact, I don't remember you having a single other reason for thinking he's scum.  Also, considering BFG's timezone and the effort put into some of her posts, I think BFG has been plenty active.

 

You on the other hand, have been posting a decent amount, but have remarkably little actual content.  All I remember from you is the overblown case on Verbal that Pralaya and I pointed out, a couple of votes for/cases on inactives, and a somewhat quick hammer on Blackhoof once you started to get some heat.  Also, you seem to fly off the handle anytime someone criticizes you.

 

I'm less than impressed with that resume and Leelou gave me a scum read early, so I think I'm going to take my own advice:

 

 

Vote: Goldeneyes

WWWwombat Spam Master

WWWwombat

Posted
Posted

 

Unvote

 

I want to think more on this.  If Ishy is telling the truth, then Pralaya is most likely scum and Wombat was just a turd for ignoring his 2 votes and focusing on my 1 vote.

 

However, that is a big detail for Wombat to overlook, and it makes me wonder if Wombat/Ishy/Pralaya isn't the entire scum team right there.

 

I am town. You think if i am scum, my teammates would leave me vulnerable on a potential LyLo lynch? 

 

Putting this back again

 

:42 PM

Here are the votecounts so far on lynches/near lynches

 

Cloud - Verbal, Andrej, Darthe, Blackhoof, Ishy, Des 

Verbal - Des, Blackhoof, Goldeneyes, BFG

Blackhoof - Wombat, Ishy, Verbal, Andrej, Goldeneyes 

 

What is the probability that everyone on the Cloud train was town?

If Ishy is telling the truth, the Blackhoof lynch was also mostly town. 

Not buying it.

 

The three people on my train are scum. That is why I am not hammered yet. Des was just looking for an excuse to vote me. GE and Ishy pounced on a opportunity where I named them scum to come on me. Dont have any doubts now.

 

 

 

 

I'm thinking Ishy is town, but Goldeneyes and Des are scum.  Not sure obviously.

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