[Advanced] Settlers of Catan Mafia - Game Over

[Verbal32]

Ok, way back I said that I was pretty sure either Wombat or Des was scum.  I stick to that thought - recent posts by both have made me lean more town on Des and more scum on Wombat.

 

Vote: Wombat

[WWWwombat]

Okay caught up. Haven't done a reread yet tho, I want to do one later tonight.

 

However, I wanted to weigh in really quick on the no lynch/mass claim thing- personally, I'm for the no lynch, against the mass claim. And that's because a mass claim would COMPLETELY nullify the advantage obtained from a no lynch. Think about it- once all the town PR's are outed, the odds are that much better that scum would be able to tamper with their NA's somewhat, so there's a good chance we'd come out of night in no better position tomorrow after a no lynch, and we might be down one more townie.

 

Even if we didn't no lynch, I still wouldn't want to mass claim btw. There's no guarantee it would conclusively lead to catching scum, and it would out our PR's and make it harder for them to help us, and it would allow scum to manipulate and distract town while getting more info. If it was a Basic game, I might view it differently, but in this case there's too many options for scum to fake claim.

 

Major FOS @ Wombat however, for earlier proposing a no lynch or mass claim (which would make some sense, even if I didn't personally agree with the mass claim part). And yet, after Verbal questions him about it, Wombat responds here:

 

 

No lynch gets us nowhere, Wombat.  We just give scum a shot tonight - they will probably hit a townie unless I win the WIFOM battle again.

 

Then tomorrow we are at the exactly same place - best case scenario.  Worst case, we're down a townie....potentially the Doc.  ;-)

 

I say we lynch today.  I'm cool with a mass claim, though.

 

I'm Doc.  Who's next?

 

That's garbage and you know it.  If it's 5-3 and we mislynch, we lose.  If it's 5-3 and we no lynch, we force scum to kill a townie and give any town PRs more time.  We head into the next day at 4-3 instead of 5-3, putting us at LyLo and improving our odds of lynching scum.

 

Also, your "best case scenario" is remarkably unimaginative.  Mine would involve you making a doc save and/or an investigator getting a guilty.

 

I'm down for a mass claim, but only if we get a consensus.  I'm not revealing unless we're doing it 100%

 

 

So now instead of an either/or scenario, he's accepting the idea of doing BOTH. Wombat is a smart cookie, smart enough to realize that doing both would be really bad for town. Definite bad vibes from this move.

 

In other news, BFG is town. Good to see, and I like the observations she's made with her posts.

 

I'm still trying to decide if Golden's emo @ Pray is legit or faked. BFG's post did make me start to rethink some of the things I had against him however.

 

Pretty sure AJ is town. Also liked his vote on Ishy, and DON'T like Ishy's softclaim afterwards. Sounds like some kind of set up for an elaborate fake claim. I think he's just plain ol scum. Wombat saying he was clearly town (that was this game, right? Don't think Ishy is in the BT game...) earlier gives me even worse vibes about Ishy.

 

However, I still wanna try and do that reread before I place a vote. Bbl

 

I wasn't suggesting doing both on the same day, Des.  I was suggesting both ideas at the same time, but as you can see from my original suggestion, I was suggesting doing one or the other, not both.

 

 

Andrej, Catan Villager, has been Modkilled.

This one is for real.   

 

Looks like the no lynch isn't happening anyways.  We're at LyLo now.

[WWWwombat]

Ok, way back I said that I was pretty sure either Wombat or Des was scum.  I stick to that thought - recent posts by both have made me lean more town on Des and more scum on Wombat.

 

Vote: Wombat

 

Modkill puts us at LyLo and you immediately vote a townie, opening us up to a scum blitz.  Starting to think we don't have a doc and you skipped the NK last night.

[WWWwombat]

Anyways, I'm still suggesting a mass claim.  Also, stop throwing your votes around at LyLo.

[John E. Kelley]

Wom is Town. You're wasting our time.

[WWWwombat]

Indeed I am.  I'm ready to reveal if we want to do that.  Gonna watch some TV now.

[Pralaya]

LOL, was that the trigger that Nolder said one of the earlier days?

[Verbal32]

 

Ok, way back I said that I was pretty sure either Wombat or Des was scum.  I stick to that thought - recent posts by both have made me lean more town on Des and more scum on Wombat.

 

Vote: Wombat

 

Modkill puts us at LyLo and you immediately vote a townie, opening us up to a scum blitz.  Starting to think we don't have a doc and you skipped the NK last night.

 

 

I've been watching - no need to get your panties in a twist.

[Verbal32]

@Ishy, reveal please.

[Verbal32]

 

Ok, way back I said that I was pretty sure either Wombat or Des was scum.  I stick to that thought - recent posts by both have made me lean more town on Des and more scum on Wombat.

 

Vote: Wombat

 

Modkill puts us at LyLo and you immediately vote a townie, opening us up to a scum blitz.  Starting to think we don't have a doc and you skipped the NK last night.

 

 

Also, Pralaya already has 2 votes.....the blitz would come there, not on your measly 1 vote.

 

Hmmm.....is Pral a scummate of yours?  Did we just get a 2-fer?  LOL.

[John E. Kelley]

@Ishy, reveal please.

Town Apothecary, everynight I'm given a list of ingredients to make a potion with. I can use it myself or gift it. N1, I used it and was granted an investigative ability. Used it on Wom and was given the result "Catan Villager." And no, won't share what I did with the other two.

[BFG]

Prals had 2 votes for a while now and everyone's posted since then. 

 

3 reasons I can think of are (ignoring all claims and stuff for now):  Pral's mafia, Ishy & Golden are both mafia or there isn't a 3 man mafia team.

 

Pral seems very unconcerned about the votes, not sure what I make of that.

 

 

 

@Ishy, reveal please.

Town Apothecary, everynight I'm given a list of ingredients to make a potion with. I can use it myself or gift it. N1, I used it and was granted an investigative ability. Used it on Wom and was given the result "Catan Villager." And no, won't share what I did with the other two.

 

 

So are you leaving it up to the other person to 'confirm' you?

[Pralaya]

Prals had 2 votes for a while now and everyone's posted since then. 

 

3 reasons I can think of are (ignoring all claims and stuff for now):  Pral's mafia, Ishy & Golden are both mafia or there isn't a 3 man mafia team.

 

Pral seems very unconcerned about the votes, not sure what I make of that.

 

 

What do you mean by unconcerned? Those were expected especially after I gave out my reads.

[Nolder]

LOL, was that the trigger that Nolder said one of the earlier days?

No, that ended.

[Nolder]

Votecount

Pralaya - Ishy, Goldeneyes, (2)

Wombat - Verbal (1)

 

Not voting: Des, Wombat, BFG, Pralaya

 

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

[WWWwombat]

 

 

Ok, way back I said that I was pretty sure either Wombat or Des was scum.  I stick to that thought - recent posts by both have made me lean more town on Des and more scum on Wombat.

 

Vote: Wombat

 

Modkill puts us at LyLo and you immediately vote a townie, opening us up to a scum blitz.  Starting to think we don't have a doc and you skipped the NK last night.

 

 

Also, Pralaya already has 2 votes.....the blitz would come there, not on your measly 1 vote.

 

Hmmm.....is Pral a scummate of yours?  Did we just get a 2-fer?  LOL.

 

 

If you're going to keep pretending to be thick, I'm going to ignore you.  Pralaya could very easily be scum or both of the guys on his train could very easily be scum (although I don't think that last one is true).

[WWWwombat]

 

@Ishy, reveal please.

Town Apothecary, everynight I'm given a list of ingredients to make a potion with. I can use it myself or gift it. N1, I used it and was granted an investigative ability. Used it on Wom and was given the result "Catan Villager." And no, won't share what I did with the other two.

 

 

I am indeed a VT.  Also, how do we know you're not a mafia apothecary?  Role cop is kinda sketch.

[John E. Kelley]

In the grand scheme of things, I suppose you don't know. All you have is my word. Take it, or don't.

[Nolder]

Votecount
Pralaya - Ishy, Goldeneyes, (2)
Wombat - Verbal (1)
 
Not voting: Des, Wombat, BFG, Pralaya
 
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.
 

Deadline: Friday 8PM PST

[hazelkrs1]

Still blech about this game. Will try and reinvigorate myself later.

[hazelkrs1]

Meh Vote Pray. Dunno if he's scum or not, but dude has been crazy inactive in too many games lately. Town is prob gonna lose anyways, might as well use this chance to punish someone when I can.

[BFG]

This is all I have - feel free to poke holes.

 

For 3 man teams.

 

To start with okhams razor on the Ishy/Wombat thing.  Simplest explanation is that Wombat is not mafia unless Ishy is as well.

 

That rules out

 

 

Verb/Wombat/Des

Verb/Wombat/Golden

Verb/Wombat/Pral

Wombat/Des/Golden

Wombat/Des/Pral

Wombat/Golden/Pral

 

 

 

Unfortunately after that it gets more circumstantial:

 

With current role claims I think it's unlikely that neither Verb nor Ishy are Town (this seemingly makes a very strong mafia team if Town have no PR at all, this changes if there are only 2 mafia)

 

That rules out

 

 

Verb/Ishy/Wombat

Verb/Ishy/Golden

Verb/Ishy/Pral

Verb/Ishy/Des

 

 

 

Des focused on verb a lot, likewise Pral/Golden.  Nominally I thus find teams with them as combinations unlikely, however, Verb was at L1 after he claimed for a while, both Ishy & Wombat were online and could have hammered, loss of 1 mafia might be worth it to take out the doc?  If Verb always planned to claim then could be a gambit between him & Des.  Pral/Golden I'm not so sure.  On the one hand if it was a gambit I'm not sure what the need is to continue it through today given that Town is all over the place.

 

 

 

So much more tentatively I find the following teams unlikely.

Verb/Des/Golden

Verb/Des/Pral

Verb/Golden/Pral

Des/Golden/Pral - of perhaps more interest as it means Verb/Ishy both telling the exact truth

Ishy/Golden/Pral

 

 

 

This means Verb is out of every remaining likely team and Ishy is in them.  However if Ishy is mafia then it means Town only have 1 PR at the moment and this also seems a strong mafia team.  It's possible that Nolders 'triggers' may counteract that though depending on how they worked, who they went to, etc, or it's possible that one of the others has a PR they're not sharing (obviously their call), or a 2 man team (plus maybe third party or symp), I don't really know what balances and what

doesn't.

 

That leaves:

 

 

Ishy/Wombat/Des

Ishy/Wombat/Golden

Ishy/Wombat/Pral

Ishy/Des/Golden

Ishy/Des/Pral

 

 

 

I'll look through 2 man combinations later and read through the thread again

 

 

 

[Pralaya]

Well nice, the three scum are on my train. That makes it easy. 

[hazelkrs1]

Well nice, the three scum are on my train. That makes it easy. 

 

[Pralaya]

It is just simple logic. With today being LyLo, I should be hammered if there was a remaining scum.

Actually, will have to wait for a few more hours for everyone to come online to see if there is one.