[Advanced] Settlers of Catan Mafia - Game Over

[WWWwombat]

I think I figured it out.  First I'll respond to some posts, then some more general comments.

[BFG]

Teams again, my reads on individuals tend to be biased by gameplay, so I trust connections more and this time there's better concrete things to put in.

 

Pral & Golden are both right.  If it's  a 3 man team then if Pral is Town then Ishy/Golden/Des have to be mafia.

 

 

 

no:

Verb/Des/Golden

Verb/Des/Wombat

Verb/Des/Ishy

Verb/Golden/Wombat

Verb/Golden/Ishy

Verb/Wombat/Ishy

Des/Golden/Wombat

Des/Wombat/Ishy

Golden/Wombat/Ishy

 

 

 

I also find it highly unlikely that Golden would fake claim to confirm Ishy to ensure Pral gets lynched if Ishy was Town and Pral & Golden were both mafia

 

so

 

 

 

no:

Verb/Pral/Golden

Des/Pral/Golden

Pral/Golden/Wombat

 

 

 

Then Ishy viewed Wombat as a Villager, slightly more assumptive as it's possible that goons and vanillas view the same way, but Ishy viewed Wombat as Town - equally, it seems a bit of a useless one shot if it only finds the mafia doing the killing (and that assumes that it's one mafia doing the killing) so okhams razor if Ishy is Town, so is Wombat...

 

 

 

speculatively no:

Verb/Pral/Wombat

Des/Pral/Wombat

 

 

 

That leaves (with no further bias)

Verb/Des/Pral

Verb/Pral/Ishy

Des/Golden/Ishy

Pral/Golden/Ishy

Pral/Wombat/Ishy

(Des/Pral/Ishy - although I doubt that both Ishy & Des would vote Pral to distance)

 

 

Also

 

I decided just to spoiler the rest of that shiz. I had to break it up into 3 pieces

 

TL;DR

 

Verb is our claimed-Doc. Nuff said there, also good save.

I'm leaning more Town on BFG today as she seems to be digging in and looking for stuff, which I am familiar with her doing as a Town player.

Between the Pral and GE thing, I'm beginning to lean Town again with GE. His reasoning is consistent when it comes to Pral and although I don't agree with it (should be trying to hunt scum, not lynch inactives) he has made a few good posts and is at least participating vs. Pral who is hanging on the outskirts and tunneling since D1 on Leelou/GE's slot.

Despo I am sort of leaning Town on. I like some of his posts after going back through and he is bringing up little details that others would likely have missed. He is paying attention and searching for clues. Good vibes.

Ishy is coasting like I saw him do as scum in my game. I think he's our best bet today.

Wombat I am starting to lean scum for a few different things. Most is circumstantial based on who he has cased on how they turned up, but there are also a few inconsistencies.

 

vote Ishy

 

 

I agree with AJ on a lot of this,

 

I'm very interested to know why Wombat thinks Ishy is Town.

 

 

[BFG]

OMG I love you BFG - fantastic catch about the N0/N1 claims by Ishy & Golden.

 

 

Everybody please unvote your current target - let's let both Ishy & Golden clarify.

 

lol

[BFG]

fwiw - my reads on individuals (and some other stuff) - apologies for formatting, these are notes made when reading in notepad and copied in, so some stuff is repeated.

 

In terms of individuals

 

Golden - seems aggressive/defensive, but he was aggressive in the Walking Dead Game.  Also quite sensitive, he's jumped on 2 points I made, the first about his train on Day 2, the second about his not being online since Verb voted Wombat (the second was a side point about why I unvoted, the first was factually correct).  He also seems to be misunderstanding either on purpose or otherwise the comments about him trying to claim Townie credit, the point wasn't that he was trying to look townie, but that he was trying to take credit for not being on a townie lynch.  He also (repeatedly) seems to not get the time zone problem, but then neither did AJ who flipped Town.  Another inaccuracy in his posts - he claims that he believes Ishy about his claim because Leelou tried to steal from Ishy N0 (the only night Leelou could have used it) but couldn't because it had been used and that since Ishy 'viewed' Wombat the same night, it all ties together in a neat bow...  Except it doesn't, Ishy claimed to view Wombat N1 and has been coy about what he's used the other nights (or otherwise).  Again it could be something and nothing, but it's something that's factually wrong in Goldens statements and since this is what he's used to clear Ishy, I'd think he was paying more attention.  I find it odd to say the least that he clears Ishy so easily, given that AJ was right and his play is very similar to the way he played in Walking Dead.  Finally his actions today are the exact same thing he accused Des of in the Walking Dead thread.    I find it interesting that he calls out Pral and not Ishy for his playstyle, when both are playing the same as they did last time, and last time Pral was Town and Ishy Mafia.  Pral has a point, there are a lot of vanilla's in the game.  So it also seems an odd role to have.

 

Ishy - I agree with AJ about his playstyle, I don't recall him yet offering opinions of his own, or questioning anyone or doing anything that helps Town find mafia other than shifting his vote around, pretty much every vote has either been "vote so and so" with no reasoning or to "even up trains" or something equally neutral.  I don't know his game play as Town, but a cursory glance at the Circle game shows that he can be more involved when he wants.  If he was quiet to protect his PR then now that's out why isn't he contributing more?  His reaction to people not liking Verbs soft claim pings having just come out of the Walking Dead game where mafia almost won in part thanks to Peaces soft claim.  Am very interested to know why so many people think he's Town.

 

Des - I don't think I've ever seen him so unagressive in a game (either as Town or mafia), was prompted before calling someone 'obvious scum', his reaction to the soft claims is sort of consistent as in called out both Verb & Ishy on them, but hasn't pushed Ishy for a full reveal which I find strange.  His 'giving up' is the worst thing about his play so far, but indicative of his seeming half-engaged play throughout the thread, which is disheartening if he is Town given his speech to Pral earlier in thread. 

 

Pral - Quiet but has looked at players that were overlooked by others and some reads are changing (and explained when they change), which I tend to find more Townie, also looking at his own train logically.  I don't understand why he isn't voting.  Golden's right about his contributions though, he barely posts D1, nudges AJ Day 2 and defends his playstyle, Day 3 says that everyone that's voting his must be mafia (although at this stage if he's Town must be right). 

 

Verb - I like his play a lot more today, Day 1/2 were very quiet, but he seems to actively be looking for people now. 

 

Wombat - Liked his Day 1 play as he was poking lots of different people, AJ was right in that most of those people have turned out to be Town, and was far more focused on Hoof for most of Day 2.  If Ishy's town why hasn't Pral been hammered?  Also calling out Des for a full role claim, but ignoring Ishy's part role claim. Called out AJ Day 2 for 'evening up trains' instead of voting for mafia (also giving same advice to me - so consistent), but happy with Ishy's response of 'follow the marsupial' Day 1 (but different stages of the game, so probably null)  Had thought that due to inconsistencies that there was either a Wombat/AJ or Wombat/Ishy thing going on - now not so sure, but really want to know why he thinks Ishy is Town.

 

 

 

Other things that stand out:  Verbs unvote after my vote on Wombat, Wombat voting Hoof instead of Golden after Leelou replaced out (probably null as he's now voting Golden at a much riskier time), Des 'giving up', Golden's last few posts... 

 

@Ishy why did you choose to view Wombat N1?  Why did you say there was someone who could confirm you?  Why were you following Wombat Day 1 before you were 'sure' of him.

@Wombat why do you think Ishy's town? 

@Pral why aren't you voting if you're so sure about the mafia team?

 

also, to check

 

@Ishy did you have a N0 action?

[WWWwombat]

I don't like being ordered around Wombat, so EAD.  But since Ishy and Verbal have claimed I'll follow suit.

I'm the town thief. Once a night I can sneak into another player's house and try to steal an item (if they have one). I must use any item stolen that evening if I get something. Why do I believe Ishy? Leelou tried to steal from Ishy the first night, but was told he had either used his items or gifted them. This matches up with his story of using the potion to view Wom. I know I'm town, I believe Ishy so by extension I believe Wombat is town. Verbal has claimed doc but it's unconfirmed. That leaves Pral, Des, Verbal and BFG as my scum candidates obviously and Pral is the one who's been skating all game. 

 

 I see scum thief as more likely.  I have a town read on Ishy, and town thief doesn't make sense unless scum have items or Nolder wanted some seriously meaningless negative utility.

 

 

Hah, what a sham. I don't think any player had any "items" to begin with . At least I can say I didn't have any and the others can pitch in if they had one with them. Don;t think there will be one. The only one who hinted any items was Ishy who is most likely scum anyway.

 

Ishy, GE and Des. Lock it. 

 

Will vote once everyone has confirmed about their presence or lack of items. 

 

Actually, I got a potion on N1.

 

Damn sorry, ran out of time to fully catch up in here.

 

I'm a Catan villager. Big whoops.

 

Im concerned with how Golden's claim corroberates Ishy, and by proxy Wombat. Assuming it's mylo, they could be going all out to try and get a last mislynch, and Wombat is more than clever enough to cone up with the two fake claims to help eachother (apothecary and thief).

 

I would normally think Pray was def scum however, for sitting so long at L-1 (I know I'm town at least), and his defense has been awful. However, BFG could be right in that its not a 3 man mafia team like we're all assuming.

 

Gonna switch to my earlier scum read, Golden, but if anyone else besides that trio can corroborate the claims (items, whether they started with or received), imma switch back to Pray. I haven't had any items that I know of all game fyi.

 

Unvote, Vote Golden

 

First of all, if it's a 3 man team, it's LyLo, not MyLo.  Secondly, I don't believe your claim for a second.  You were extremely against the idea of revealing and that makes very little sense for a VT, especially one as egotistical as you.

 

 

Golden flips scum then we got a Golden/Ishy/Wombat scum team imo. If I don't pass out when I get gome I'll try to take another look.

 

Lol nice preemptive bus-link.  Yeah, I'm scum with Golden and Ishy and instead of hammering Pralaya at LyLo, I decided to start a train on a scummate.  You're not even trying to look like you're scumhunting any more.  Getting lazy with endgame so close.

 

Anyways, brb gotta reboot cuz my comp is lagging so much 3 people ninja'd me while writing this post.

[BFG]

just realized the above is more of a summary than reads,

 

Golden/Ishy seem like mafia to me

 

I'm still getting a null on Des, which is actually weird (to me),

 

Pral - nullish

 

Wombat/Verb - leaning Town ish.

 

 

But these really do change a lot when reading

[BFG]

 

So I guess either

 

Verb/Des/Pral

 

Pral/Wombat/Ishy

 

now. 

[Nolder]

Votecount

Pralaya - Ishy, Goldeneyes (2)

Goldeneyes - Wombat (1)

 

Not voting: Pralaya, Verbal, BFG, Des

 

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: Friday 8AM PST

 

Deadline has been moved up to Friday morning.

[BFG]

@Ishy - can you confirm N0/N1 actions?

[John E. Kelley]

@Ishy - can you confirm N0/N1 actions?

Yes, I forgot that we started with a N0.

 

N0- kept the potion, viewed Wom.

N1- gifted the potion to Wom, since I had received a Town result with previous night's viewing.

N2- kept it again, no discernable effect as of yet.

[Pralaya]

Remember when Nolder started this game, he said that he did not need a fixed number of people and he can start the game with any number. And, looking at the dead people, it looks more and more like the setup is just vanilla+doc and most probably just goons. 

 

@BFG It is lylo and I don't want to give any opportunity for speedlynch. So would want to hear all the viewpoints and then vote

[John E. Kelley]

 

So I guess either

 

Verb/Des/Pral

 

Pral/Wombat/Ishy

 

now.

 

Fwiw, I think your lists are crap. Other than Pral.

[WWWwombat]

I've been rather confused about this game lately.  I've got some rather strong reads, but they don't make sense with the way I thought the game was setup.  I've got strong scum reads on Des and Goldeneyes.  Both of them have made sketchy hammers (Des D1, Goldeneyes D2) and at best neither of them have been making any sense.  Most of the time, however, I find them downright scummy.  I also have a strong town read on Ishy.  Everything he's been saying makes sense to me, and I was pretty sure that he was the one who gave me the potion.  His sheeping of me did bother me, but it makes sense if he viewed me as town.  I find it more likely that he is genuine than that he has been working this whole game to buddy me for a critical vote.  I also, have a strong town read on Pralaya.  Although he doesn't post much and his attitude towards activity is irritating, his analysis is pretty good.  He's looked over the votes like I have, and he's noticed some of the same things I have.  Finally, I don't think that if he were scum, he would so starkly disbelieve Ishy's claim.  The scum know Ishy can give out items, so discrediting that part of his claim is a sucker's play.  I doubt scum would do it at L - 1.

 

So I have strong town reads on Ishy and Pralaya and strong scum reads on Des and Goldeneyes.

 

These reads do not make sense with a 3-man scum team.  If Pralaya and Ishy were town, scum would have hammered Pralaya by now.  This is the blitz scenario Verbal accused me of disregarding.  Furthermore, I was at 1 vote for a while and didn't get blitzed either.  It seems that the scum are either unwilling or unable to blitz today.  I had assumed unwilling at first and was trying to figure out if one of Ishy or Pralaya was scum, but that doesn't make sense to me either.  I don't see both Ishy and Goldeneyes being scum with those claims, and I don't see Pralaya acting the way he did as scum at L - 1.

 

So either my reads are wrong, and someone I think is town is scum and possibly someone I think is scum is town, or my assumptions about the game are wrong.  My reads are usually pretty accurate at this point in the game.  I have been horribly and painfully wrong before, but my reads usually work out.  To ignore them would be unwise.  I am much more comfortable re-evaluating my setup assumptions.

 

I had assumed there were 3 scum in this game because the game started with 12 players and 3 is the typical number for such a game.  However, 2 is possible.  I once ran a 14 player game with only 2 scum.  I balanced it by making it completely vanilla.  Searching for a 2-man scum team without a cop is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Because the lynch info doesn't give you much.  The scum won that game.

 

So I return to this game.  We have not lynched scum.  Everyone has claimed and no one has claimed cop.  A 3-man team conflicts with my reads.  A game with 10 town and 2 scum could be balanced by removing the cop and adding scum power role(s).  Des and Goldeneyes have scummy play and scummy claims.  All of these things lead me to believe that there are only 2 scum in this game and that they are Des and Goldeneyes.  Perhaps I want that to be true, but I also think that it is and I'm going with it.  It is the simplest, most complete explanation I can think of.

 

So I will be voting only Des or Goldeneyes today.  If you want to lynch scum, you will do so as well.

[WWWwombat]

Remember when Nolder started this game, he said that he did not need a fixed number of people and he can start the game with any number. And, looking at the dead people, it looks more and more like the setup is just vanilla+doc and most probably just goons. 

 

@BFG It is lylo and I don't want to give any opportunity for speedlynch. So would want to hear all the viewpoints and then vote

 

I believe he said he could start with 7 or something like that.  I'm thinking along the same lines as you, but it leads me to a slightly different conclusion.  2 mafia, one or both roled.

[WWWwombat]

 

@Ishy - can you confirm N0/N1 actions?

Yes, I forgot that we started with a N0.

 

N0- kept the potion, viewed Wom.

N1- gifted the potion to Wom, since I had received a Town result with previous night's viewing.

N2- kept it again, no discernable effect as of yet.

 

 

Your breadcrumb was dope btw.  I barely even saw it.

[John E. Kelley]

 

 

@Ishy - can you confirm N0/N1 actions?

 

Yes, I forgot that we started with a N0.

N0- kept the potion, viewed Wom.

N1- gifted the potion to Wom, since I had received a Town result with previous night's viewing.

N2- kept it again, no discernable effect as of yet.

 

Your breadcrumb was dope btw.  I barely even saw it.

Didn't know if you picked up on it or not.

[WWWwombat]

Yeah, I couldn't think of a good response, so I ignored it for a bit.

[Verbal32]

 

Remember when Nolder started this game, he said that he did not need a fixed number of people and he can start the game with any number. And, looking at the dead people, it looks more and more like the setup is just vanilla+doc and most probably just goons. 

 

@BFG It is lylo and I don't want to give any opportunity for speedlynch. So would want to hear all the viewpoints and then vote

 

I believe he said he could start with 7 or something like that.  I'm thinking along the same lines as you, but it leads me to a slightly different conclusion.  2 mafia, one or both roled.

 

 

I agree with this assessment.

 

But I'd add Pral to the list and make it 2 of the 3 (Pral, GE, Des) as scum.  I disagree with your reason for clearing Pral from that group.

[GoldeneyesND]

Your brilliant reads have been straight garbage all game dude, so drop the condescending admonitions. You're actually changing the setup in your mind in order to justify your vote. Ishy just confirmed my claim that BFG misrepped as a "slip" and Verbal got all excited about. Pral straight up states that "items" don't exist, yet both you and Ishy have received them. My role is based on the existence of these items and I put that out there without knowing if anyone other than Ish could corroborate that cause it's freakin true. You have received a potion and that only confirms my role. This game is a case study on how people "game" themselves into making poor decisions without the need for active scum.

[Verbal32]

That said, Des & GE are on both of our lists.  More importantly, I go back to early in the game when I stated my strong feeling that either you or Des was scum.  If you're scum, you've fooled me this game.  I have a strong town lean on you, which means I'm leaning strong scum on Des.

 

I'd vote Des over anybody else right now, but would consider both GE & Pral.

[GoldeneyesND]

^Meant for wombat, not verbal.

[Verbal32]

Your brilliant reads have been straight garbage all game dude, so drop the condescending admonitions. You're actually changing the setup in your mind in order to justify your vote. Ishy just confirmed my claim that BFG misrepped as a "slip" and Verbal got all excited about. Pral straight up states that "items" don't exist, yet both you and Ishy have received them. My role is based on the existence of these items and I put that out there without knowing if anyone other than Ish could corroborate that cause it's freakin true. You have received a potion and that only confirms my role. This game is a case study on how people "game" themselves into making poor decisions without the need for active scum.

 

Dammit you're ruining my plan here.  Hush!

[Verbal32]

^Meant for wombat, not verbal.

 

We know, not zip it until Wombat responds to both of us.

[Verbal32]

*now

[WWWwombat]

 

 

Remember when Nolder started this game, he said that he did not need a fixed number of people and he can start the game with any number. And, looking at the dead people, it looks more and more like the setup is just vanilla+doc and most probably just goons. 

 

@BFG It is lylo and I don't want to give any opportunity for speedlynch. So would want to hear all the viewpoints and then vote

 

I believe he said he could start with 7 or something like that.  I'm thinking along the same lines as you, but it leads me to a slightly different conclusion.  2 mafia, one or both roled.

 

 

I agree with this assessment.

 

But I'd add Pral to the list and make it 2 of the 3 (Pral, GE, Des) as scum.  I disagree with your reason for clearing Pral from that group.

 

 

I agree with his reasoning so far and think he made a play that scum wouldn't make.  Why do you disagree with that?

 

 

Your brilliant reads have been straight garbage all game dude, so drop the condescending admonitions. You're actually changing the setup in your mind in order to justify your vote. Ishy just confirmed my claim that BFG misrepped as a "slip" and Verbal got all excited about. Pral straight up states that "items" don't exist, yet both you and Ishy have received them. My role is based on the existence of these items and I put that out there without knowing if anyone other than Ish could corroborate that cause it's freakin true. You have received a potion and that only confirms my role. This game is a case study on how people "game" themselves into making poor decisions without the need for active scum.

 

One of my early scum reads flipped town.  Stuff like that happens sometimes.  What reads have you issued outside of tunneling on Pralaya?  Easy to claim your reads are superior when they don't flip.

 

I change my assumptions when my conclusions are inadequate.  I chose the one that was most likely to be faulty.  Why should I cling to traditional setup notions when it is clear that at least one of them does not apply (we do not seem to have a cop), and when that very change would disadvantage the town quite a bit?

 

BFG didn't misrep anything.  She found a contradiction that has since been resolved.  Verbal was the one who made like it was a slip.

 

Pral said he believed items don't exist.  Something that scum would almost certainly not have said if either you or Ishy were town.

 

Your role may be based on the existence of items, but that doesn't say anything about your alignment.  If Ishy is town and no one else seems to have item roles, then why would the town have your role?  If the scum have item roles, then why would Pralaya have discounted the possibility?  Me receiving a potion confirms Ishy's role, not yours.  And even if your role were confirmed, your alignment wouldn't be.

 

 

That said, Des & GE are on both of our lists.  More importantly, I go back to early in the game when I stated my strong feeling that either you or Des was scum.  If you're scum, you've fooled me this game.  I have a strong town lean on you, which means I'm leaning strong scum on Des.

 

I'd vote Des over anybody else right now, but would consider both GE & Pral.

 

I don't know why you're so attached to me and Des being opposite alignments.  I personally believe it's true, but your read on Des should be based on his actions, not mine.  I'd definitely like to lynch Des today.  I don't want to lynch Pralaya in the slightest.