Greek Mythology: Man Vs. Gods [Advanced] - GAME OVER - TOWN WINS!

[Thorum]

Made a small calculation:

 

- chance that Cloud = mafia: 100%

- chance for each of Berf, Pral, Krak, Dap, Tina = mafia: 37%

- chance that Darthe = godfather: 14% 

- chance that Wombat is not Titan = 2%

 

I've ignored the chances someone else is fake-claiming, and also that Darthe AND Wombat are mafia together.

 

- We kill Cloud: nothing changes

 

- We kill a mafia among the Five: chances of either of the other 4 being mafia drops to 21%

          - I lynch Cloud: nothing changes

          - I lynch the second mafia among the Five: We lynch Cloud day 3, and Game Over

          - I lynch a townie among the Five: chances of either of the other 3 being mafia rises to 28%

 

- We kill a townie among the Five: chances of either of the other 4 being mafia rises to 46%

          - I lynch Cloud: nothing changes

          - I lynch a mafia among the Five: chances of either of the other 3 being mafia drops to 28%

          - I lynch a second townie among the Five: chances of either of the other 3 being mafia skyrockets to 62%

 

Pay attention to the percentage "Darthe = godfather". Not ignorable.

[berf]

Lynch from the pool = 40%

Shoot Cloud = 100% or 0%

 

Lynch = mafia 40% Town 60%

Cloud = mafia

NK = town

Dice = Town

 

2m/2t At Best. 1m/3t At worst if Pool Kill is Town and the shot works. 0m/2t if the Pool is town, and Cloud shot doesn't work.

 

 

 

Lynch Rando = 40%

Shoot Rando = 50%, or 33%, or 0%

 

Lynch = mafia 40% Town 60%

Shot = mafia 50% Town 50% If Lynch = Town

Shot = mafia 25% Town 75% If Lynch = Mafia

 

Best Case 2m/1t with Cloud ready to die tomorrow

Worst Case 0m/2t with 3 mafia surviving

 

 

 

Lynch Cloud = 100%

Shoot from the pool = 40%

 

Lynch = Mafia 100%

Dice = town

NK = town

Shot = mafia 40% town 60%

 

2m/2t At Best. 1m/3t at worst if Shot hits town. 1m/2t if shot doesn't work. 

 

 

 

 

If you aren't going for a cloud lynch please explain:

 

Why you don't want the only confirmed Mafia removed

What potential additional benefit Dice's role could bring after all that has already been revealed about the setup

Why you don't want to pick the option with the only 100% chance of taking out mafia

 

I think people are nervous of seeing the town body count rise, but it is going to anyway. NK - probably going to happen. When Cloud/Dice go that's a wash. If Thorum misses his shot, there's another one. 

 

Deaths are going to happen. Embrace it - it is knowledge. At this stage the work is done - If I die it just means we are closer to the Tina/Praya/Dap/Krak pair. 

[Thorum]

We have the Five + Cloud + Darthe who could be godfather, each with an equal chance (which isn't much less chance than for the second mafia among the Four if we shoot the first one today). 

 

If Cloud = godfather, that gets rid of this uncertainty.

[WWWwombat]

Why are you hung upon this Darthe = Godfather thing? He claimed Titan early on D1 before anyone else had mentioned Titans. Unless another Titan claim pops up, there is no chance that Darthe is Godfather.

[Thorum]

Oh? Forgot about that. In that case, see berf.

[peacesells]

lynch krak...

[dapianoplay3r]

 

I dont like this

I havent read up yet so I dont have all the stuff under my belt yet but my gut is just saying lynching cloud is bad. I say shoot him tonight

I also dont like how Berf is removing himself from the numbers when doing all the figures. I get it, you say your town, regardless keep yourself in those numbers

 

regardless. gut says that cloud should wait

Given that you're one of my top suspects, I don't give a hoot what your gut allegedly says.

 

I'd like some answers from Dice stat though.

 

didnt think you would

 

 

Berf

I dont want to lynch cloud cos i like having Dices role around

[berf]

That is all well and good, and I understand wanting to keep a townie around obviously - but what situation do you think will arise given the current lay of the land that would need us to Oracle it up?

 

Dice already helped crack this game wide open. You really think having him around outweighs the benefit of taking a mafia NA off the table tonight?

[dapianoplay3r]

Yes. I feel like since the cop is already gone Dice is useful. I also think its very possible that Cloud is just a goon. Instead of giving him direct power I think its entirely possible that RTE could of made cloud powerless so that the mafia would of been able to take Dice out without losing much. I feel like its a pkayer that was expected to be killed at some point and therefore could of been made a goon (lover aside).

In saying that I think it's also possible that he has a PR but it all really depends on what the other mafia have

 

it comes back to my gut however. I will vote that way if people want but i really cant shake the niggle that its not a good move

[berf]

He can verify role alignments. Setup questions. I feel like we already have enough setup info to win this bad boy.

 

And I'm out for a few hours, not that it matters as we aren't near deadline yet. Try not to hammer anyone until Wombat has his questions asked.

[peacesells]

You have no clue what answers we may need come morning.  That's not the kind of stuff you can always predict.  We kill cloud either when we believe all the other scum are dead or when having 2 scum alive puts a numbers crunch on town.  That simple.

[dapianoplay3r]

Official Vote Count

 

Despo (9/9): Basel, Berf, Darthe, Csarmi, Ithi, Thorum, Cloud, Dice, Mish

 

Ithi (1/9): Wombat

 

Basel (2/9): Song, Despo,

 

Berf (1/9): Krak,

 

Not Voting: Praya, Hallia, Tina,

 

That's a lynch! Scene coming up!

After recent math ive colored Darthe and Thorum blue. I understand they arent 100% confirmed but for now they might as well be

Now Berf just stands out once again. The mafia knew that cloud was known. Therefore they would want someone else on for town cred. Who just happens to be in that spot and not known. Berf.

 

Official Vote Count

 

Cloud (4/8): Mish, Csarmi, Hallia, Tina,

 

Mish (8/8): Ithi, Berf, Dice, Pral, Cloud, Darthe, Wombat, Thorum

 

Not Voting: Krak, Song,

 

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

 

Deadline here!

 

That's a lynch! Scene coming later today if I survive my meeting with my supervisors. Sorry folks, rough day.

Now in this count its a little more up in the air cos they thought mish was town. However clouds train is noticably absent from an early mafia. I looked through Berfs posts from early that day and he is quiet on cloud so Tina looks like a good candidate from that train.

OH! something does appear interesting. It was Berf that cloud suggested speed lynching before they knew that Dice knew that cloud wasnt town

 

 

You know what it is. Its that i think Berf is mafia. I dont like this whole cloud thing cos hes pushing for it so hard. That just makes me super nervous.

Plus i want dice around

(I know oracles only do setup but I feel like its worth having)

[dicetosser1]

 

 

 

Cloud, do you deny being mafia?

 

Nope. I'm indeed mafia.

 

I want a DIVORCE!!!!!

 

I can dig it.

 

I was kinda hoping for a Dice gambit. Woulda been insane. 

 

 

 

And Krak is getting replaced. So we may well spend a day chasing tails giving DAP and KRAK MKII an easy ride. Something to be wary of. We'll see.

 

For what it's worth, my three assuming you aren't CC'd are Praya, and then the two replacements. At any rate, it will remove some shrubbery that the mafia might be hiding behind.

 

I would like to hear more from our dear Tina.

 

as was said before in this game   im not one for crazy gambits. and noone would volunteer me for one :D

 

 

and the termi s Demi god Thorum

 

 

 

I'm sorry but it was just never meant to be :/

 

 

 

Thats cause your'e unfaithful!

 

 

 

 

He said something about being able to get a couple words and he's been able to get numbers.

 

Anyways, the reason I want these answered is I think Zeus would be a good candidate for Strongman or Godfather (or both). Seeing as the mafia don't have an RB, I'd like to find out what they do have that could screw us and kill it.

 

Also, RTE's alleged response about Dice needing to clarify his Redirector question gives me the willies.

i get no more then 2 words and one question at a time.

 

there is no survivor.

there is no bus driver.   the more specif answer i got before Mish revealed

 

 

have asked the strongman question. Am not sure if the others would get answered and its been taking a while for me and RTE to catch up.

 

 

oh and i hadn't contributed today because i was at work.  different time zone remember.

[Niniel]

 

If it helps narrow it down, I am human,vanilla.

 

 

Me too.

 

Can someone explain to me why we should lynch/not lynch Cloud today? I don´t really follow your thoughts. And I definitely don´t understand Berf´s vote on Dice before. 

 

 

Hrmm. 

 

FOS at Tina. You know exactly why someone should or shouldn't lynch cloud today, there are literally PAGES of everyone arriving at the same though here. Either skimming or deliberately misreading, interesting given your earlier claim that you "Like an active game", but have displayed very little of that in this game.

 

 

Yes, I have read them all + all that was posted after my question and I still don´t quite understand. Especially not all the numbers that makes my brain hurt. I understand that it could be good to keep Dice if we need more information but that is it. He is mafia and I think we should lynch him today. 

 

 

Player - I like your post about Berf. 

[Niniel]

He = Cloud

[dapianoplay3r]

You know i mention you in it right Tina? and it was a mafia read.

 

Also csarmi thought berf was mafia

[Niniel]

Well, I don´t agree about that part obviously. 

 

 

I searched for the vc and I think this is correct. Pralaya voted Cloud but didn´t unvote. 

 

 

Pralaya (2): Dice, Cloud

 

Berf (1): Pralaya

 

Cloud (3): Wombat, Darthe, Thorum

 

Krak (1): Peace

 

 

 

Vote Cloud

[dapianoplay3r]

So you dont want to vote Berf?

[dicetosser1]

of course she doesnt dap   she wants to bus cloud

[dapianoplay3r]

Dice gets it!

[dicetosser1]

feel like a tina vote dap? cause i could

[Niniel]

I don´t mind voting Berf tomorrow. We don´t know what kind of powers that the mafia has. We don´t know if Cloud has any extra powers. It seems to be good to get rid of him first. 

 

I also want to take a better look at Pralaya. 

[dapianoplay3r]

feel like a tina vote dap? cause i could

Yea I could do that

 

Berf feels like a better choice but lets do this

 

unvote vote Tina

[dicetosser1]

and what do you think about killing me?

[dicetosser1]

unvote  vote Tina