Ten days after Samhain, 1057: Night 5 (CONCLUDED)

Niniel · July 17, 2013

I have only caught up in this thread yet. Lynching Csarmi in all threads are based on:

1. Csarmi tried to play exactely the same in all three games and that is a reason to believe that he wants to hide as scum in at least one of them.

2. Everyone will be mafia in at least one thread.

1. Well it could be. But those that choose to vote him in every thread use this as an excuse to behave just the same - hiding themself by playing exactely the same in each game. So to me it looks like there are scum trying to use their votes on Csarmi to hide their own meta.

2. I have heard of a few exceptions but the majority of mods use random.org when they asign roles. So I don´t think it´s true that you need to be mafia in at least one thread.

What if Csarmi is town in all threads? What have we learned from day 1? If we are all going to play exactely the same in all of the games then why play three games at all? I will try to see this is as three games.

Also, why would someone admit that they are mafia in one thread to get away in the other games? We all play for three victories. We want to help our teams win in each thread. This is also based on the assumption that you are probably both town and mafia. But there could be players that are town in all the games and there could be players that are mafia in all games.

I will read the other threads. I don´t know if I end up voting Csarmi in one of them or not but I think that the reasons that people use to vote him is bad.

Darthe · July 17, 2013

Wombat got it

WWWwombat · July 17, 2013

Vote Count

Salami (10/12): Leelou, Cloud, Nol, Yates, Verb, Ishy, Razen , BG, Dap, Krak

Verb (1/12): Crusher

Chuckles (1/12): Salami

Not Voting (11/23):
Chuckles, Mish, Hally, Lenlo, Des, Peace, Tiink, Tina, Ree, Pral, Serra

Darthe · July 17, 2013

Serra wouldn't it be against Darthe's rules to claim which game you are scum in in a game where you are town?

Your "other self" isn't supposed to know what you are in each other game...right? Or am I overthinking what he said about the cop thing?

I'm honestly fine with that. The inherent problem with revealing information about another thread once you are dead is that you are dead. It breaks decorum in the same way that it would in another game if a player got online and posted their results after being NK'd in any other game.

serra · July 17, 2013

Serra wouldn't it be against Darthe's rules to claim which game you are scum in in a game where you are town?

Your "other self" isn't supposed to know what you are in each other game...right? Or am I overthinking what he said about the cop thing?

But claiming in the other thread where you are scum is fine. It's the only rational solution if town-you is about to be lynched, really (so long as the town's threat to continue lynching you is credible), since you're choosing between

a) we lynch your current slot, and then your next slot

and

b) you tell us your next slot is scum and we keep this one alive

It might feel wrong to claim scum in one game to save yourself in another, but you'll get lynched in the scum-game regardless, you're just anticipating it to save your town-self.

Is it, now?

Why would claiming scum in thread A raise your credibility in thread B?

Why would you care more about staying alive then helping your team? Is this game about survival?

Because once we have established consistent and accurate live-meta on people, their alignment across threads is no longer uncorrelated.

Consider, in your case, that we have a very strong cross-thread reason to believe you're scum in at least 1 thread. From a base probability of 1/4, if we can say with (near-) certainty that you're scum in at least 1 thread, that means there's a 70% chance you're scum in exactly 1 thread. So if you claim a thread in which you're scum, the probability that there further threads in which you're scum is only 30%, or 15% per thread, which is lower than the base probability of lynching someone random, so revealing a scum-thread does a lot to raise your credibility in the others. Of course percentage play should never trump reads, but it is at least a good basis to start, particularly in a complex game like this.

Of course you want to help your team, so you should really not want to be mislynched. Say that you're scum in thread 3, but town in the others, and the town proposes to lynch you in the order 1, 2, 3. Your choice is now to get lynched as town twice in 1 and 2, or directly claim scum in 3 and at least survive in the town games.

What Yates and Nol posted about the Gambler's Fallacy is only true if we can draw no valuable conclusions from cross-meta. I would argue that you very much can, which imposes a correlation between the games which we can take advantage of to increase our odds of hitting scum.

csarmi · July 17, 2013

I think you should read some probability theory. If you flip scum in one thread, you still have an 1/4 chance to be scum in the others.

As for gaining valueable conclusions from cross-meta, you know, that's really very credible when your first read is completely wrong already. How good the next ones will be?

And this is all worth nothing in practical situations.

If the mod confirmed that you were scum on at least one of the three threads, it would still be a stupid play from you to come out and claim scum in any of the three.

Nolder · July 17, 2013

What if Csarmi is town in all threads? What have we learned from day 1? If we are all going to play exactely the same in all of the games then why play three games at all? I will try to see this is as three games.

If he's town in all three then he made a stupid move and cost us a mislynch in all three games.

Well, that is, if anyone ever gets around to finally hammering him in any of these games.

The trains are already stalling just like I said they would. Give it another day and they'll disperse.

csarmi · July 17, 2013

What if Csarmi is town in all threads? What have we learned from day 1? If we are all going to play exactely the same in all of the games then why play three games at all? I will try to see this is as three games.
If he's town in all three then he made a stupid move and cost us a mislynch in all three games.

Well, that is, if anyone ever gets around to finally hammering him in any of these games.

The trains are already stalling just like I said they would. Give it another day and they'll disperse.

Nope, I'm town in all three, and I did not make a stupid move. You did.

Well, in fact, I think you're making a smart move cause you're scum in at least one game (if not more) and wanna secure a lynch and derail the thread. ALso make sure that no one else gets run up.

It's not my responsibility to play well for you - it's yours.

I helped quickstart the game.

Tunneling on a townie day 1 is bad play. Tunneling on day 1 is bad play already in itself. Letting the scum drive the lynches too.

IT IS YOUR FAULT

serra · July 17, 2013

Csarmi, I could lend you a textbook about applied statistics and actuarial science, if you're interested. :smile:

I think you should read some probability theory. If you flip scum in one thread, you still have an 1/4 chance to be scum in the others.

As for gaining valueable conclusions from cross-meta, you know, that's really very credible when your first read is completely wrong already. How good the next ones will be?

And this is all worth nothing in practical situations.

If the mod confirmed that you were scum on at least one of the three threads, it would still be a stupid play from you to come out and claim scum in any of the three.

If you actually do flip town in all 3, I'll accept my own ignorance and start treating the games more separetely... But since I don't see that happening, I like the staggered lynch. We just need to start somewhere.

Verbal32 · July 17, 2013

I am playing the game. I'm watching for scummy behaviors. Also, your lynches will give us something to go on from each thread as to how people reacted in the different threads.

I know you are, Leelou. But how many non-voters do we have?

BTW, how could someone believe that I'd dare do this play if I wasn't vanilla town (or something very close to that) in every thread is still beyond me. Cause that's the main reason I did this.

Dude.....no way you thought about that before making the posts. This is blatant backtracking.

(1) I was sure it would get attention and I thought it likely that it would initiate trains. I thought there would be competing ones, though. The scum would be likely to find reasons to get on the trains, but see (2)

(2) I was sure that it would bridge the topics. I considered it good for town, for reasons stated earlier - scum are more likely to get caught up cause they have to create a web of lies. I underestimated how one sided (tunneling) this could make the game, however. Also, while I do have some reads on people, they're too general - I don't know which thread they are scum at.

(3) I was sure it would be a risky move, but being more or less roleless town in all my games, I thought it would be a risk worth taking. I wouldn't have dared to play this with conflicting alignments.

I understand your point, but I can't help feeling posts like this are being driven by hindsight.

serra · July 17, 2013

^this guy gets it.

So verbal, if it was up to you, which incarnation of Csarmi would eat rope first?

csarmi · July 17, 2013

Misreading is not the only fault in your reasoning.

The other problems are:

1) the game just don't work like that (people just don't do + you can't get such agreements)

2) it would be a bad play from the others to listen to that plan anyway

3) it would be bad play from the player to claim scum anyway (he hurts his team in one game and don't help it in the others)

4) it'd be morally wrong anyway

5) why do you think claiming town don't work? I did claim town. in fact, I told you my alignment in all three threads, are you listening?

6) your argument is mathematically wrong,as soon as you do flip scum, the chances of being scum in the other thread are 1/4 again - conditional probability just don't work like you're implying it to be

csarmi · July 17, 2013

I am playing the game. I'm watching for scummy behaviors. Also, your lynches will give us something to go on from each thread as to how people reacted in the different threads.

I know you are, Leelou. But how many non-voters do we have?

BTW, how could someone believe that I'd dare do this play if I wasn't vanilla town (or something very close to that) in every thread is still beyond me. Cause that's the main reason I did this.

Dude.....no way you thought about that before making the posts. This is blatant backtracking.

(1) I was sure it would get attention and I thought it likely that it would initiate trains. I thought there would be competing ones, though. The scum would be likely to find reasons to get on the trains, but see (2)

(2) I was sure that it would bridge the topics. I considered it good for town, for reasons stated earlier - scum are more likely to get caught up cause they have to create a web of lies. I underestimated how one sided (tunneling) this could make the game, however. Also, while I do have some reads on people, they're too general - I don't know which thread they are scum at.

(3) I was sure it would be a risky move, but being more or less roleless town in all my games, I thought it would be a risk worth taking. I wouldn't have dared to play this with conflicting alignments.

I understand your point, but I can't help feeling posts like this are being driven by hindsight.

It's your right to feel so, Verbal, but these are pretty basic observations, don't act like it's a rocket science or anything. If I had no data to go on, I'd assume most people to get there. And in general I do believe that people are stupid.

Verbal32 · July 17, 2013

^this guy gets it.

So verbal, if it was up to you, which incarnation of Csarmi would eat rope first?

Prob not this one. I might be thinking too far into it, but if he's defending hardest here, perhaps he's hoping to start here and maybe flip town - the more than happens, the more discouraged town might become. Besides, he has a better chance to win with town if he dies early than scum. So if I had to choose a thread to stagger first, it would be 2 or 3.

I think I'm using reverse-reverse psychology there, so I might not have made any sense.

Nolder · July 17, 2013

What if Csarmi is town in all threads? What have we learned from day 1? If we are all going to play exactely the same in all of the games then why play three games at all? I will try to see this is as three games.
If he's town in all three then he made a stupid move and cost us a mislynch in all three games.

Well, that is, if anyone ever gets around to finally hammering him in any of these games.

The trains are already stalling just like I said they would. Give it another day and they'll disperse.

Nope, I'm town in all three, and I did not make a stupid move. You did.

Well, in fact, I think you're making a smart move cause you're scum in at least one game (if not more) and wanna secure a lynch and derail the thread. ALso make sure that no one else gets run up.

It's not my responsibility to play well for you - it's yours.

I helped quickstart the game.

Tunneling on a townie day 1 is bad play. Tunneling on day 1 is bad play already in itself. Letting the scum drive the lynches too.

IT IS YOUR FAULT

lol

It's my fault you played so bad I had to vote you. Ok guy.

And I already addressed your tunneling claim (tl;dr it's bogus) so dunno what you're trying to accomplish.

Are you trying to set me up for a fall after you flip or what?

Verbal32 · July 17, 2013

I am playing the game. I'm watching for scummy behaviors. Also, your lynches will give us something to go on from each thread as to how people reacted in the different threads.

I know you are, Leelou. But how many non-voters do we have?

BTW, how could someone believe that I'd dare do this play if I wasn't vanilla town (or something very close to that) in every thread is still beyond me. Cause that's the main reason I did this.

Dude.....no way you thought about that before making the posts. This is blatant backtracking.

(1) I was sure it would get attention and I thought it likely that it would initiate trains. I thought there would be competing ones, though. The scum would be likely to find reasons to get on the trains, but see (2)

(2) I was sure that it would bridge the topics. I considered it good for town, for reasons stated earlier - scum are more likely to get caught up cause they have to create a web of lies. I underestimated how one sided (tunneling) this could make the game, however. Also, while I do have some reads on people, they're too general - I don't know which thread they are scum at.

(3) I was sure it would be a risky move, but being more or less roleless town in all my games, I thought it would be a risk worth taking. I wouldn't have dared to play this with conflicting alignments.

I understand your point, but I can't help feeling posts like this are being driven by hindsight.

It's your right to feel so, Verbal, but these are pretty basic observations, don't act like it's a rocket science or anything. If I had no data to go on, I'd assume most people to get there. And in general I do believe that people are stupid.

Yes, they are basic observations. Still doesn't mean you didn't fire from the hip and are now wishing you hadn't.

Verbal32 · July 17, 2013

What if Csarmi is town in all threads? What have we learned from day 1? If we are all going to play exactely the same in all of the games then why play three games at all? I will try to see this is as three games.
If he's town in all three then he made a stupid move and cost us a mislynch in all three games.

Well, that is, if anyone ever gets around to finally hammering him in any of these games.

The trains are already stalling just like I said they would. Give it another day and they'll disperse.

Nope, I'm town in all three, and I did not make a stupid move. You did.

Well, in fact, I think you're making a smart move cause you're scum in at least one game (if not more) and wanna secure a lynch and derail the thread. ALso make sure that no one else gets run up.

It's not my responsibility to play well for you - it's yours.

I helped quickstart the game.

Tunneling on a townie day 1 is bad play. Tunneling on day 1 is bad play already in itself. Letting the scum drive the lynches too.

IT IS YOUR FAULT

lol

It's my fault you played so bad I had to vote you. Ok guy.

And I already addressed your tunneling claim (tl;dr it's bogus) so dunno what you're trying to accomplish.

Are you trying to set me up for a fall after you flip or what?

Well, if we can get that to happen today, we can definitely get a lynch on you, Nol. ;-)

csarmi · July 17, 2013

Well, I'm more or less satisfied with the results.

csarmi · July 17, 2013

Nolder: oh, so you had to vote me.

Nice! I just didn't give you a chance to hunt for scum or do anything useful. Sorry about that man.

csarmi · July 17, 2013

So when is Samhain?

Nolder · July 17, 2013

Verbal: do whatcha gotta do bromie.

Csarmi: Yeah kind of. As town I cannot let suspicious behavior go unnoted and as it's Day 1 it seemed prudent to follow up that notation with voting. Had I just ignored it I would be doing so with the danger of someone else noticing and doing exactly what I did and also noting later that I ignored it, making me just as suspicious as you if not more so. Why would I put myself in that position? Why would I stick my neck out like that and ignore your behavior in the first place?

csarmi · July 17, 2013

And was this suspicious behaviour how? Are you telling me that you wasn'T kidding when you pointed out that I copy pasted my posts and voted me? Seriously?

csarmi · July 17, 2013

Cause I find that more suspicious than the copy-pasting for sure.

Nolder · July 17, 2013

You think masking your meta across three games is not suspicious behavior?

Verbal32 · July 17, 2013

Verbal: do whatcha gotta do bromie.

Csarmi: Yeah kind of. As town I cannot let suspicious behavior go unnoted and as it's Day 1 it seemed prudent to follow up that notation with voting. Had I just ignored it I would be doing so with the danger of someone else noticing and doing exactly what I did and also noting later that I ignored it, making me just as suspicious as you if not more so. Why would I put myself in that position? Why would I stick my neck out like that and ignore your behavior in the first place?

Am I misunderstanding what you're saying here? I read this as you wanted to ensure you followed the crowd to not stand out and raise suspicion.

Ten days after Samhain, 1057: Night 5 (CONCLUDED)

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