Ten days after Samhain, 1057: Night 5 (CONCLUDED)

[hazelkrs1]

vote Des

 

The snake dude made a nice case and Des' avatar is scary.

 

 

Vote Des.

 

 

 

 

I didn't say we had to speedlynch Leelou, which is what everyone's implying. I wanted to listen to what she had to say before placing a vote, just in case she'd give us any leads on her teammates. She's trying really hard to redirect attention from herself by pulling up any name that she can to save herself from being lynched today. Which she's about to succeed in, by the way. Myself, Chuckles, Pral, anyone that said she should be lynched today for her behavior interacting with Verbal. I don't think she cared which one, just as long as one of us got killed instead of her. Chuckles looks suspect to me for saying that he doesn't think she's scum. I could vote both way right now, but I'll vote: Leelou.

Ooowheee I love to see a scum sweat! Leelou is doing what the responsible townie thing to do would be in this circumstance: getting out her reads. She isn't flailing or panicking and telling people to vote for all these other people at all. As Yates said, her responses have held up under pressure.

 

And its not about whether or not you were pushing speedlynching, its that you were setting up Leelou's lynch before Verbal had even flipped scum. I wanted to go back and look for myself, and yeah bud, you came up not exactly smelling like roses.

 

And you and BG pushing the Leelou/Chuckles team makes me feel like Chuckles is more likely town now as well. Thanks for that. Razen flips scum, and imo we have two semi-confirmed townies and some great scum leads.

 

 

The back and forth between Desp and Cloud yesterday leads me to believe someone might've had a vendetta.  And also how he was pushing for Raz's lynch, seen above.

 

Vote Desp

 

Two weak bandwagon votes on me and a third with pretty weak justification, all from players whose voting history looks pretty sketchy to me. Not saying these are all scum, but their questionable nature and bandwagoning should make it fairly clear that I am town who scum is trying to get lynched.

[hazelkrs1]

Quick blurb followed by more comprehensive case on Rorschach:
 

 

(Edited out big ol wot pointing out which people were setting up Leelou's lynch)

 
 
unvote vote Razen.

 

 

Edited my stuff out to trim the quotes down, but yeah Crusher just blatantly coattailed onto my case. If he agreed with my general reasoning yesterday regarding Razen, why is he now switching tack and voting me, while giving a cutesy reason of me "having a scary avatar". Looks incredibly scummy to me tbh.

Okay on to Rorschach. First, gonna requote the stuff I pointed out about him before in that wot:
 

 

 

Leelou´s unwillingness to vote Verbal is noted.

 
Not to mention Leelou being the one who started Csarmi votes, before someone pointed out the copy-paste. Right in the first page. Seemed very eager to take out someone.
 
Also, it is strange that the "inactive" vote movement is prominent only in this game and completely absent in T2 and T3. 
 
Guess who started it?

For the record, I support the idea of running up the inactives who have not posted much content.  Sometimes the threat to lynch isn't enough - some folks need to see themselves at L-2 before they start contributing.  We all knew this would be a demanding game.  No excuses.

 

I'm all for lynching the inactives.

 
To add to that, what Yates said. Leelou was town in T2 and the probability of her being a scum here is more.
 

Cloud, Dap, Des, Leelou, Nol, Razen, Verb <- More than one of these guys is scum in at least 1 thread [i know - big help].  My guess is Cloud in T2 for one.

 
vote Verbal

 
and then Leelou

 

 
Obvious setting up of lynches, again before the flip. Also brings up Leelou being town in other thread, has Gambler's Fallacy fail
 

Just saw T3. Leelou is town in T3 too.

 
Again with the Gambler's Fallacy fail

 

 
 

 

Scum team: Razen, Rorschach, Serra, Cloud, and BG now as well.

Book it. Send it to the publisher. Then wait for the checks to come in.





Cause those reads are GOLD

 
All I can say for sure is that you are at least 20% wrong

 

 

This is funny cause he said at the time that I was at least 20% wrong, presumably referring to himself. Yet recently he's saying that EVERYONE I fos'd here is town. Sketchy to say the least. 
 

 

We'll see. Start proving your towniness. Get out more reads than just the next one you're trying to setup for lynch.

 
There was no setting up of anyone. I had two reads of scum. I voted one and outed him. And, now I am voting the other.

 

 

Quoted to show the thing about Rorschach trying to exaggerate his part in lynching Verbal. Noob scum bussing a Vengeful Killer might try and overstate their part in lynching their scum partner, noob scumtell. Serra ends up defending/sorta defending him about this in a bit.
 

Hallia hasn't really been active enough to vote inactives. That might well come from scum looking for an alternative to bussing her buddy.
 
Razen case by Desp is strong. Chuckles I also agree with, but Rorschach I don't really see. I'm also a bit surprised by Desp's allegation that I was setting up Leelou's lynch, when I couldn't really anticipate her drawing attention to herself with the verbal hammer/rolefish.

Hallia believing Leelou based on her name is pretty off. I'm not sure if she's just off the ball, or she wanted a reason to opportunistically flip to Razen.
 
Razen/Chuckles/Hallia is a go. Cloud and BG are maybes.

 

Serra defends Rorschach here, sees my points on Razen and Chuckles tho. I now believe Chuckles to be town however. Thinking Serra was trying to line up as many town lynches as possible. I do like his points on Hallia however, if he is town after all.
 

What's wrong with the lyncher mention, Desp? No one seemed to care here, so I didn't want to make a big point out of it, but softclaiming a cop-result is pretty standard lyncher play. If I fear there might be a lyncher, I would require a full-claim by anyone who claims a guilty, but I suppose that's again a difference in play style.
 
As to Rorschach, I don't see any motivation for scum to build a case on his buddy AFTER a guilty had been outed. He must have known he wouldn't get the full credit for the lynch, and I doubt scum would post that sort of case just to point at it and say "look at that, I totally wouldn't do that as scum". The fact that he's now using that as his defence isn't great play, but is actually something falsely accused town do a lot when they don't know what else to say.

 

Serra defends Rorschach again, although he hedges his bets somewhat in his defense. THIS is why I'm saying Rorschach makes a great info lynch, him flipping scum will give us more evidence against Serra.
 

 

Almost forgot: I won't be here tomorrow or early thursday; Going away to see Muse. Weee!

Famous last words?

 

 

Trying to be cute about the mafia NK? Yeah this looks kinda questionable to me.
 

You took that from the middle of the post, without reading the entire post? Trying a bit too hard, aren't we?

It is the same as two days before. I am still saying that you are scum. The only difference is that earlier I had a single read and now i have two.

Now if you think that I am scum, why don't you vote me? Waiting for others so that you can sneak it in?

 

This post came after Leelou asked why Rorschach was voting me instead of Leelou, when he was sure she was scum yesterday, was voting her yesterday, and still seems sure of her today. This looks very questionable to me as well. I think scum tried getting Leelou lynched but it ended up not working, and are now going for what they see as an easier lynch in me.

Also, to the bolded: You only had one scum read yesterday? And now only two today? Yeah dude definitely seems like noob scum showing their intent to focus on getting certain townies lynched instead of subtly putting out "reads" on more players.

As for the underlined: Seems like a taunting statement, and again pretty defensive.



TL;DR: Rorschach was one of the people I already pointed out that was trying to set up Leelou's lynch before Verbal flipped. He also tried to overstate his role in getting Verbal lynched, a noob scumtell. His voting history is questionable (didn't vote day 1, was in prime bussing position on Verbal, and voted Leelou yesterday and is still sure of her being scum, yet is voting me today). His case against me was weak and was largely based on AtE and trying to use Cloud's death against me, which looks like an obvious frame job attempt. And lastly he has continuously tried breadcrumbing little links between himself and others which I now think are town, in an attempt to try and gain town cred.

Pretty sure he's scum.

[hazelkrs1]

My reads in case yall do decide to lynch me:

 

Basically the only one on my train I don't feel sketchy about is Leelou. Thinking there's at least 2-3 scum on my train.

 

Rorschach: see my case on him

Serra: had scum read on him all game, also defending someone I find scummy and was setting up as many mislynches as possible not that long ago.

Ishy: bandwagoned all game, literally not contributing ANYTHING to the town scumhunt.

Crusher: playing the "confused townie" card, bandwagoned onto my reasoning yesterday, yet is voting me today with an awful bandwagon vote.

Hallia: just a horrible player this game using awful reasoning for every one of her votes, advocated lynching an inactive after being called out herself for inactivity.

Dap: lurked most the game, then posts a very weak case on me in an attempt to justify his vote.

 

Slightly scummy feel from Lenlo, he seems to be lurking too much.

 

Town reads:

 

Leelou: thinking scum was trying their hardest to link Leelou with Verbal, them setting up her lynch and her recent responses etc make me think she's town

BG: Thought he could be scum before, but I think Serra and Rorschach namedropping him actually makes him more townie. He also has much better justification for his votes this game I think, and could have just hammered me instead of stating intent to hammer without looking too scummy, since I had already claimed vanilla

Tiinker/Krak: Gut feel on both of these

[hazelkrs1]

Alright, 3 straight hours of catching up in mafia threads is enough for me. WIll try and stop back in later, perhaps tonight for some Drunk Mafia^tm

 

*assuming I'm not lynched by then

[bgrishinko]

Hnnngh.... Its a good rebuttal from Despo that seems full of good analysis of the people voting him.

 

I'm going to retract my intent to hammer.

 

Despo, what do you think of Chuckles?

[Lenlo]

So I just lost about an hour's worth of thread searching because DM ate my post. Using Notepad from now on. Or will just never try and make a WoT ever again. Well see.

 

 

 

What Yates and Nol posted about the Gambler's Fallacy is only true if we can draw no valuable conclusions from cross-meta. I would argue that you very much can, which imposes a correlation between the games which we can take advantage of to increase our odds of hitting scum.

I don't disagree with you regarding valuable conclusions - which is why Salami is the pony in this race. My gambler's fallacy post - again - was in response to Peace's assertion that Salami flipping scum in one thread makes him somehow LESS LIKELY to flip scum in another thread. As a statistics guy, you can appreciate where her logic fails in that argument. I was pointing it out.

Meh not particularly useful
Feels like he is just going along to push Csarmis lynch

If I remember right, in the beginning of the game Despo was pushing for a Csarmi lynch in all 3 threads. This was, imo, a really easy push to make since most everyone was going along with it and in all 3 threads he flipped town. Pretty convient for the two. ((Desp and Yates.))

 

 

I'm not saying I won't also individually look for scumtells and questionable behavior in each, quite the opposite in fact. But you can't treat it like each game is being played in a vacuum.

Exactly. Playing a single gambit across all three games on Day 1 does not preclude you from scum hunting by other means. What it DOES do is give us a baseline for following days and creates natural tells.

Yates kinda goes with des on some stuff. But he was defo trying to get verb to notice out of the team. Probably cos he knows him


Yates behavior towards Despo and Verb very much gives me a sense of signaling. Seeing as both Yates and Verb flipped scum it makes me weary of Des at this point.

 

 

I just got to this post:

 

I had both global and local points to make, I just happened to start with the global ones, as they seemed the more immediately interesting of the two.

Wait. So you are doing pretty much the same thing I'm doing [responding to global arguments] yet you call me out for replying to global arguments as they pop up [because that makes more sense, btw] rather than "arbitrarily" choosing a single thread to address these points in - and that isn't scummy? YET - you questioned why I would do that and expressed concerns about it because I wasn't posting in here as much?? That's weird, dude.

Don't think serra is mafia. Yates is against him too much
 

Yates and Verb both were perfectly fine with lynching Serra, with Des being the one to actively push it if I remember right. I believe Serra to be town so this just links those 3 together even more for me.
 

 

As for vote analysis, the people who pretty much constructed the meta-lynch on CSalarmi, and by that I mean all the early culprits on his train, were Nolder, Verbal, Leelou, Yates, Cloud, and Razen.

Nolder was the most outspoken about it, however I could still see him pushing it overtly as scum instead of trying to do it quietly.

Leelou and Verbal both play on JN a lot, where there are a lot more speedlynches and quick wagons, so I don't think their votes stand out as much.


Yates' thinking seems to have mirrored my own somewhat, in that the plan was a unique one and a good opportunity to try and compare info from each thread (it was a good idea btw, and it's already paying off... sorta lol). He seems town to me in at least T1 and T2. Gotta reread T3 to make sure on him there.

Cloud's play looks mighty scummy in T1 and T2. Moreso in T2, because he joined two bandwagons quick (first was on Yates), but I remember feeling pretty sketchy about him in this one as well. Once again, I have to go back through T3 again to see how I feel on him there.

Razen was the laziest of the early pushers on the metalynch. Just voted, didn't give any reasoning or anything, didn't say he agreed with the concept, nothing. He might be the best candidate for what Tina described in this thread: People that were pushing Csarlami's metalynch as a way of masking their own meta. I in fact initially voted Razen a bit ago (since that thread is the go-getter of the trio and is already in day phase). After reviewing his case in that one however, I ended up changing my vote to Cloud, because his case was pretty good. But perhaps he's better at casing when he's town, and he was trying to mask his meta to hide his scumminess in T1 or T3. Worth looking into possibly.

Bold
So des defends both verb and leelou here. That's great
Italics
He thinks Yates is copying him, so must be town. Who would a symp mirror to get attention? Mafia
I know he would try link with town to drag them down too but those two things together is well worth noting

What I want to know is why is Des perfectly ok with someone mirroring him? Most people would call him out on ((Whats the word. Not bandwagoning since its not a vote but just straight up following him)). Making both Des and Leelou jump up my list more and more.

 

 

 

 

Verbal is not town.

Vote Verbal

Need some explanation there.

Now leelou was one of the people on the side of asking for a full reveal
However as a vengeful the mafia would of known that Tina would die when verb flipped anyway, so why would they waste time getting a reveal and looking scummy

Probably because if Tina didnt reveal they could hope to turn it around on Tina and get her lynched, saving their vengful killer 1 more day and getting them an extra towny. Just look how it turned out for Peace in one of the threads, who BSed claiming cop and almost got someone lynched for it. Twas a stupid move and got him lynched but if he had been the real cop and refused to reveal then I could easily see it still switching to him and him getting lynched.

 

 

Stating I'm scum is a softclaim. I'm not letting you take me down without getting you on the record once I flip.

See why would he need this? It's useless to him other than trying to stop is own lynch so his teammates wouldn't be pushing for a reveal as well IMO

As I said before, its a long shot but if they could get tina lynched from this or even just delay verbs lynch for a random, then they would have come out on top by alot.

 

 

Leelou, you are coming off as UBER scummy right now. Chuckles, you too.

Now des gets involved. He starts using the verb stuff to set others up as scummy (which normally they would be but since he flipped vengeful its less scummy IMO)

This looks like setting up lynchs/distancing for me. Dont wanna tie each other to closesly after all.

 

It's one thing for mafia to fake a claim towards the end of a game to try and trick town. Quite another if the claim comes towards the beginning of the game. HIGHLY doubt Tina is scum pulling this off as a fake claim.

Not going with an obvious claimed investigative viewing is as anti-town as it gets.

Why would he doubt her. He knows its very likely she is telling the truth (supposing he is mafia), it earns him town cred, distances from his teammate.
Des is doing exactly what a good mafia should be doing at this point

Agreed

Im in blue. Sorry for using your post for this Dap, but I really didnt feel like going back through the entire thread again. If it becomes needed though I will go back and do it again. Des is the way to go today.

 

Also fyi I deleted afew of the quotes in Daps original WoT that I didnt need.

 

Vote Des

[bgrishinko]

Vote Pralaya

 

Umm.... ok. Considering this is your 3rd post of this game... I'm going to have to FoS this until an explanation is presented.

[lolguy26]

Vote Pralaya

 

......seriously dude, 

[lolguy26]

i think that was lenlo with the hammer 

[Lenlo]

Oh I hammered. Miscounted that, but I am perfectly ok with since des go lynched from it.

[bgrishinko]

Oh hey, Lenlo hammered when I clearly stated I had Intent to Hammer, and by the timestamp and the explanation that he gave of DM eating his post, it seems likely I ninja'd him with my post retracting my intent. Well, let's see how it turns out.

[bgrishinko]

Oh I hammered. Miscounted that, but I am perfectly ok with since des go lynched from it.

Really Lenlo? Really? Did you miss the following 3 posts altogether? What's to miscount when there is an official votecount showing him at L-1, I gave intent to hammer, and Despo references nearly getting blind lynched?

 

 

Vote Count

 

Pralaya (1/7): Des

Des (6/7): Pralaya, Crusher, Ishy, Hally, Dap, Leelou

Leelou (1/7): BG

Chuckles/lolguy (1/7): Serra

Krak (1/7): Chuckles

 

Not Voting (3/13):

Lenlo, Krak, Tiinker

 

 

Updating Dap's vote counts with coloring after the first one for my own reference:

 

Csarmi Lynch Day 1

 

 

Day 1 Final Vote Count:

Salami (12/12): Leelou, Cloud, Nol, Yates, Verb, Razen, Dap, Krak, Des, Peace, Tina, Tiink

Verb (1/12): Crusher

Chuckles (1/12): Salami

Cloud (1/12): Mr. Ree

Not Voting (8/23): Chuckles, Mish, Hally, Lenlo, Pral, Serra, BG, Ishy

 

 

Verbal Day 2 Lynch

 

 

 

Day 2 Final Vote Count

 

Verbal (11/11): Tina, Cloud, Ishy, BG, Razen, Chuckles, Des, Pralaya, Serra, Tiink, Leelou

 

Not Voting: Verb, Mish, Hallia, Yates, Lenlo, Crusher, Dap, Peace, Krak

 

 

 

Razen Day 3 Lynch

 

 

 

Day 3 Final Vote Count

Leelou (4/9): Pralaya, Cloud, BG, Razen

Razen (9/9): Chuckles, Leelou, Des, Crusher, Yates, Hally, Ishy, Lenlo, MishNot Voting (4/17):

 

Dap, Krak, Tiink, Serra

 

 

 

 

I still feel that Leelou has been overall playing more scummy as I talked about at length yesterday. She has responded well under pressure, but that can just mean cool under pressure mafia.

 

Dap, I can see your case on Despo. It's pretty well thought out and I think your connections with Yates make sense. So I suppose I'll pull a Serra and post my Intent to Hammer. I'd like to hear Despo's responses before anyone comes in and hammers him willy nilly.

 

 

 

I'm here, I'm here, Lordy Lord don't have to blind lynch me yet. Little bit hungover and tired, but I'll catch up and try and get my thoughts together a bit. I think I forgot to mention it here, but I'm off for my 5 day break again so I won't be quite as active. Anyways, thoughts coming in a bit

[Leelou]

My phone was dying and I was out with my family. I was going to unvote and put Des at L-2 but I guess that doesn't matter anymore. 

[Lenlo]

 

Oh I hammered. Miscounted that, but I am perfectly ok with since des go lynched from it.

Really Lenlo? Really? Did you miss the following 3 posts altogether? What's to miscount when there is an official votecount showing him at L-1, I gave intent to hammer, and Despo references nearly getting blind lynched?

 

 

Vote Count

 

Pralaya (1/7): Des

Des (6/7): Pralaya, Crusher, Ishy, Hally, Dap, Leelou

Leelou (1/7): BG

Chuckles/lolguy (1/7): Serra

Krak (1/7): Chuckles

 

Not Voting (3/13):

Lenlo, Krak, Tiinker

 

 

Updating Dap's vote counts with coloring after the first one for my own reference:

 

Csarmi Lynch Day 1

 

 

Day 1 Final Vote Count:

Salami (12/12): Leelou, Cloud, Nol, Yates, Verb, Razen, Dap, Krak, Des, Peace, Tina, Tiink

Verb (1/12): Crusher

Chuckles (1/12): Salami

Cloud (1/12): Mr. Ree

Not Voting (8/23): Chuckles, Mish, Hally, Lenlo, Pral, Serra, BG, Ishy

 

 

Verbal Day 2 Lynch

 

 

 

Day 2 Final Vote Count

 

Verbal (11/11): Tina, Cloud, Ishy, BG, Razen, Chuckles, Des, Pralaya, Serra, Tiink, Leelou

 

Not Voting: Verb, Mish, Hallia, Yates, Lenlo, Crusher, Dap, Peace, Krak

 

 

 

Razen Day 3 Lynch

 

 

 

Day 3 Final Vote Count

Leelou (4/9): Pralaya, Cloud, BG, Razen

Razen (9/9): Chuckles, Leelou, Des, Crusher, Yates, Hally, Ishy, Lenlo, MishNot Voting (4/17):

 

Dap, Krak, Tiink, Serra

 

 

 

 

I still feel that Leelou has been overall playing more scummy as I talked about at length yesterday. She has responded well under pressure, but that can just mean cool under pressure mafia.

 

Dap, I can see your case on Despo. It's pretty well thought out and I think your connections with Yates make sense. So I suppose I'll pull a Serra and post my Intent to Hammer. I'd like to hear Despo's responses before anyone comes in and hammers him willy nilly.

 

 

 

I'm here, I'm here, Lordy Lord don't have to blind lynch me yet. Little bit hungover and tired, but I'll catch up and try and get my thoughts together a bit. I think I forgot to mention it here, but I'm off for my 5 day break again so I won't be quite as active. Anyways, thoughts coming in a bit

 

Im sorry I had spent the past hour setting up a post which was eaten. I had forgotten the vote count by then. Either way theres no use bickering about it. Lets watch Des flip scum then move on.

[Leelou]

My phone was dying and I was out with my family. I was going to unvote and put Des at L-2 but I guess that doesn't matter anymore. 

[bgrishinko]

All right, well I hope you are right then Lenlo.

[Darthe]

Final Vote Count

 

Pralaya (2/7): Des, Krak

Des (7/7): Pralaya, Crusher, Ishy, Hally, Dap, Leelou, Len

Leelou (1/7): BG

Chuckles/lolguy (1/7): Serra

Krak (1/7): Chuckles

 

Not Voting (1/13):

, Tiinker

 

Scene incoming

[Darthe]

Leith Mortensson sat stalwart in the carved chair of his clan-fathers hall. He was reading, rare though being learned was for the time. He had to find answers. Books had answers. It was that simple. With a suspect list vast and mighty and a list of allies that could starve a rat he prepared his accusations, presented them to the town like a king come to do glorious battle. Surely they would see reason.

 

They saw a man spreading crazy theories. When rebutted he had no defense. They wanted to kill him for it!

 

He wanted to cry.

 

Leith knew better. He had learned from experience. He was clever. So instead he represented his arguments as best he could. But before they were swayed a bafoon charged in, yelled Leroy Jenkins, and stabbed him in the chest.

 

Des - Leith Mortensson, VT has been lynched.

 

It is now night! You have 24 hours.

[Leelou]

Pral and Len. I'm voting one of them tomorrow. 

[Pralaya]

Well damn, I was wrong. I know all the fingers of suspicion will point at me now. Can;t be helped.

 

For what it is worth, Lenlo's change in tone from 

 

 

 

Scum team: Razen, Rorschach, Serra, Cloud, and BG now as well.

Book it. Send it to the publisher. Then wait for the checks to come in.

Cause those reads are GOLD

I swear Desp if I dont get my check in the mail soon, im going to invest in some bats.

 

vote Razen

 

to

 

 

Sorry for using your post for this Dap, but I really didnt feel like going back through the entire thread again. If it becomes needed though I will go back and do it again. Des is the way to go today.

 

Also fyi I deleted afew of the quotes in Daps original WoT that I didnt need.

 

Vote Des

 

 

is very suspicious.

[lolguy26]

your just trying to move suspicion from yourself to lenlo, in a very lame manner 

 

FOS

[hazelkrs1]

 

Bah. Good luck town.

[Lenlo]

Well damn, I was wrong. I know all the fingers of suspicion will point at me now. Can;t be helped.

 

For what it is worth, Lenlo's change in tone from 

 

 

 

Scum team: Razen, Rorschach, Serra, Cloud, and BG now as well.

 

Book it. Send it to the publisher. Then wait for the checks to come in.

 

Cause those reads are GOLD

I swear Desp if I dont get my check in the mail soon, im going to invest in some bats.

 

vote Razen

 

to

 

 

Sorry for using your post for this Dap, but I really didnt feel like going back through the entire thread again. If it becomes needed though I will go back and do it again. Des is the way to go today.

 

Also fyi I deleted afew of the quotes in Daps original WoT that I didnt need.

 

Vote Des

 

 

is very suspicious.

I call that change in tone from joviality to voting him rereading the entire thread knowing that some people are town and some are scum. Really puts things in perspective.

[Lenlo]

Plus look at the time stamps on those. 3 days? Not that fast if you ask me.

[Tiinker]

Cloudflare..