[Full Prologue Spoilers] The Red Veiled Aiel

[Guest Sean Mcpeters]

I also think the Red Veiled Warriors are Aiel. But what really stood out to me in the prologue, was the conversation between Aviendha and Bair. I know believe, Nakomi whom Aviendha meet is from the northern controlled Aiel. Although i havent decided yet if she is there for the shadow, or if she is trying to save the Aiel in the north. She has a deep understanding of the Aiel, especially there past, and even Bair comments that her name is very ancient. Brandon has mentioned that we will see her again, and my guess is her and Bair will find a way to overcome the tragedy that his coming for the Aiel.

[Neophyte]

Indeed, even with Rand dead their are certain conditions needed for the DO to win more than "draw". He has done this innumerable times and we know an all out assualt doesn't get it done....

 

Sorry ... do we actually know that? I know it has been speculated, and I hope it is the case, as it would make Moridin's actions much more comprehensible, but do we actually know it? Would Rand's death in TEoTW, or in the Two Rivers as a kid, have prevented a total victory by the Dark One? Nothing I've seen indicates that definitively. Hopefully we discover something in AMoL about the mechanics of the Bore and the Dark One's intentions that makes it clear.

[Suttree]

Indeed, even with Rand dead their are certain conditions needed for the DO to win more than "draw". He has done this innumerable times and we know an all out assualt doesn't get it done....

 

Sorry ... do we actually know that? I know it has been speculated, and I hope it is the case, as it would make Moridin's actions much more comprehensible, but do we actually know it? Would Rand's death in TEoTW, or in the Two Rivers as a kid, have prevented a total victory by the Dark One? Nothing I've seen indicates that definitively. Hopefully we discover something in AMoL about the mechanics of the Bore and the Dark One's intentions that makes it clear.

 

We know per RJ that...

 

Interview: Nov 1st, 1998

 

SciFi.com Chat (Verbatim)

Rothaar

 

When Rand takes Verin and the others through a Portal Stone in The Great Hunt, at the end of each life he hears "I have won again Lews Therin". I thought that if the Dark One won even once the Wheel would be broken and therefore the Dragon would not be reborn again. How could the Dark One have won before to be able to say "again"?

Robert Jordan

 

There are degrees of victory. The Dark One can achieve victory by breaking free, but can also achieve lesser victories. Such as by stopping the Dragon Reborn from doing other things he was born to do. It isn't as simple as him being born to fight The Dark One. It's never simple.

 

So while it isn't stated straight out I would assume killing the Dragon would be stopping him. It is a simple enough thing that it has to have been tried. In addition we know the Dragon being turned to the shadow has resulted in a draw. It seems like certain things are needed for the DO to acheive a "total victory". As for the full out assault we saw that attempted and failed in both the War of Power and Trolloc Wars.

[Neophyte]

Indeed, even with Rand dead their are certain conditions needed for the DO to win more than "draw". He has done this innumerable times and we know an all out assualt doesn't get it done....

 

Sorry ... do we actually know that? I know it has been speculated, and I hope it is the case, as it would make Moridin's actions much more comprehensible, but do we actually know it? Would Rand's death in TEoTW, or in the Two Rivers as a kid, have prevented a total victory by the Dark One? Nothing I've seen indicates that definitively. Hopefully we discover something in AMoL about the mechanics of the Bore and the Dark One's intentions that makes it clear.

 

We know per RJ that...

 

Interview: Nov 1st, 1998

 

SciFi.com Chat (Verbatim)

Rothaar

 

When Rand takes Verin and the others through a Portal Stone in The Great Hunt, at the end of each life he hears "I have won again Lews Therin". I thought that if the Dark One won even once the Wheel would be broken and therefore the Dragon would not be reborn again. How could the Dark One have won before to be able to say "again"?

Robert Jordan

 

There are degrees of victory. The Dark One can achieve victory by breaking free, but can also achieve lesser victories. Such as by stopping the Dragon Reborn from doing other things he was born to do. It isn't as simple as him being born to fight The Dark One. It's never simple.

 

So while it isn't stated straight out I would assume killing the Dragon would be stopping him. It is a simple enough thing that it has to have been tried. As for the full out assault we saw that attempted and failed in both the War of Power and Trolloc Wars.

 

Hmm ... I don't really think the War of Power was a failure for the Shadow. It was more like an 85% victory. The Dark One literally caused the world to be broken, shattered his opposition, and weakened mankind, and all the Light got in return was a momentary reprieve (in the Dark One's time scale).

 

If Rand had been killed in the early books, no one would have cleansed the taint, and there would be no one to replace the seals with - whatever Rand is going to cause them to be replaced with. So, what would stop the Dark One from claiming total victory at that point? Nothing that we know of.

 

Which is why I'm hoping that we find out something new - because as things stand, there appears to be no reason why killing Rand early on would not have resulted in total victory for the Shadow. We're just assuming (as you admit) that there must be one.

[Agravayne]

I always thought that the number born with the spark is dwarfed by the number who can learn to channel. So, even if you 13x13'd every Male Aiel that goes to the Blight, and even if you considered their relatively longer lives, there really wouldn't be enough of them to stand against Randland united and the uncorrupted Aiel. I really don't think that evil-Town is really all that large.

 

Aiel are militarily powerful because of their skill, experience, tactics and the high percentage of the population under arms. They are not a significant population compared to Randland. Channelers are rolls of the dice.

 

This is why what Taim is doing is so important to the Shadow that he was rewarded with Chosen status.

[Neophyte]

I agree - I doubt that the Samma N'Sei are very numerous.

[Suttree]

Hmm ... I don't really think the War of Power was a failure for the Shadow. It was more like an 85% victory. The Dark One literally caused the world to be broken, shattered his opposition, and weakened mankind, and all the Light got in return was a momentary reprieve (in the Dark One's time scale).

 

True but I am thinking in terms of an "utlimate victory" for the DO leading to his breaking free. That is what I mean when I say certain conditions need to be met beyond just klling th Dragon. It certainly has to have happened in the past, especially since we know 100% for sure he has been turned and it resulted in a draw.

[Barid Bel Medar]

I always thought that the number born with the spark is dwarfed by the number who can learn to channel. So, even if you 13x13'd every Male Aiel that goes to the Blight, and even if you considered their relatively longer lives, there really wouldn't be enough of them to stand against Randland united and the uncorrupted Aiel. I really don't think that evil-Town is really all that large.

 

Aiel are militarily powerful because of their skill, experience, tactics and the high percentage of the population under arms. They are not a significant population compared to Randland. Channelers are rolls of the dice.

 

This is why what Taim is doing is so important to the Shadow that he was rewarded with Chosen status.

 

Not sure if you have read the prologue, but it isn't just the random men sent to the blight. They have been breeding channelers for 2000 years in the "Town". They undergo training, it isn't just sparkers. Every child is put to the test, if they are one of the "Talentless" they are discarded.

 

They have a breeding program set up, so higher percentages of channellers are born.

 

 

Having said that, I think it is a smaller community than some assume. I would put the numbers of Samma N'Sei around like 300-1000.

 

A substantial amount, but not epic proportions.

[Suttree]

I always thought that the number born with the spark is dwarfed by the number who can learn to channel. So, even if you 13x13'd every Male Aiel that goes to the Blight, and even if you considered their relatively longer lives, there really wouldn't be enough of them to stand against Randland united and the uncorrupted Aiel. I really don't think that evil-Town is really all that large.

 

Aiel are militarily powerful because of their skill, experience, tactics and the high percentage of the population under arms. They are not a significant population compared to Randland. Channelers are rolls of the dice.

 

This is why what Taim is doing is so important to the Shadow that he was rewarded with Chosen status.

 

Not sure if you have read the prologue, but it isn't just the random men sent to the blight. They have been breeding channelers for 2000 years in the "Town". They undergo training, it isn't just sparkers. Every child is put to the test, if they are one of the "Talentless" they are discarded.

 

They have a breeding program set up, so higher percentages of channellers are born.

 

 

Having said that, I think it is a smaller community than some assume. I would put the numbers of Samma N'Sei around like 300-1000.

 

A substantial amount, but not epic proportions.

 

The way I read it the "talentless" are essentially used for foot soldiers. They aren't totally discarded.

[Barid Bel Medar]

Edit:

 

Yeah, your right. I was thinking about those that failed the training and were not evil enough disappeared and were used as food.

 

So yeah, a pretty decent force, I think, but not earth-shattering.

 

Around the 300-100 channellers and what, 10 or so thousand warriors?

 

Can't really tell, but it would be fairly substantial without being too big.

[Neophyte]

Hmm ... I don't really think the War of Power was a failure for the Shadow. It was more like an 85% victory. The Dark One literally caused the world to be broken, shattered his opposition, and weakened mankind, and all the Light got in return was a momentary reprieve (in the Dark One's time scale).

 

True but I am thinking in terms of an "utlimate victory" for the DO leading to his breaking free. That is what I mean when I say certain conditions need to be met beyond just klling th Dragon. It certainly has to have happened in the past, especially since we know 100% for sure he has been turned and it resulted in a draw.

 

Sorry, what? How do "we know 100% for sure he has been turned and it resulted in a draw"? I'm not familiar with that quote at all.

 

What I'm saying is that last time, even in what was mostly a victory for the DO, the Dragon took action that prevented an "ultimate victory." While not a terribly good solution, LTT's sealing of the Bore was better than the DO breaking completely free.

 

Your statement that "certain conditions need to be met beyond just klling th[e] Dragon" is an assumption. It is one which I hope it true, but we don't know that - indeed, given only what we know it seems that the death of the Dragon would indeed mean the total victory of the Dark One. There would be no one else to stop him from breaking completely free, with the seals effectively gone. So again, hopefully we'll learn something new about the mechanics involved, because unless we do, the Shadow has been shooting itself in the foot almost from day one.

[Suttree]

The way I read it the "talentless" are essentially used for foot soldiers. They aren't totally discarded.

 

Really?

 

I got the distinct impression that those that failed the training "disappeared" and their bodies never found. The thought started with Isam not eating meat becasue never knew what it was in the Town. Plus the characteristic sharp teeth, I thought they were killing and eating them.

 

But then later on when giving Isam soldiers they differentiated between channelers and soldiers. Those that can't channel carried spears like the ones we saw kill the merchant while the "talented" such as the first two given to Isam carry no weapons. He was given some of both group IIRC to fulfill his task of hunting Rand. Don't have it in front of me to double check.

[Neophyte]

The way I read it the "talentless" are essentially used for foot soldiers. They aren't totally discarded.

 

Really?

 

I got the distinct impression that those that failed the training "disappeared" and their bodies never found. The thought started with Isam not eating meat becasue never knew what it was in the Town. Plus the characteristic sharp teeth, I thought they were killing and eating them.

 

I agree - some of them are likely kept around as slaves, but I don't expect to see an army of Talentless popping up anytime soon. There are a few, of course - Graeffalump the "unknown" Forsaken who spoke to Isam promised him "a "handful of the Talentless" to help with his new hunt. But the Shadow has Trollocs for foot soldiers.

[Barid Bel Medar]

The way I read it the "talentless" are essentially used for foot soldiers. They aren't totally discarded.

 

Really?

 

I got the distinct impression that those that failed the training "disappeared" and their bodies never found. The thought started with Isam not eating meat becasue never knew what it was in the Town. Plus the characteristic sharp teeth, I thought they were killing and eating them.

 

But then later on when giving Isam soldiers they differentiated between channelers and soldiers. Those that can't channel carried spears like the ones we saw kill the merchant while the "talented" such as the first two given to Isam carry no weapons. He was given some of both group IIRC to fulfill his task of hunting Rand. Don't have it in front of me to double check.

 

Yeah, I edited my post. The ones that were used for food were those that failed the training and were not evil enough, not the Talentless.

[Neophyte]

But then later on when giving Isam soldiers they differentiated between channelers and soldiers. Those that can't channel carried spears like the ones we saw kill the merchant while the "talented" such as the first two given to Isam carry no weapons. He was given some of both group IIRC to fulfill his task of hunting Rand. Don't have it in front of me to double check.

 

You're right that there are a few Talentless around, but they don't wear the Red Veils - those are only for the Samma N'Sei. So, the men who killed Barriga could channel. They just didn't need to in that situation.

 

Isam was, however, given some of each to help with his hunt.

[Suttree]

Sorry, what? How do "we know 100% for sure he has been turned and it resulted in a draw"? I'm not familiar with that quote at all.

 

What I'm saying is that last time, even in what was mostly a victory for the DO, the Dragon took action that prevented an "ultimate victory." While not a terribly good solution, LTT's sealing of the Bore was better than the DO breaking completely free.

 

Your statement that "certain conditions need to be met beyond just klling th[e] Dragon" is an assumption. It is one which I hope it true, but we don't know that - indeed, given only what we know it seems that the death of the Dragon would indeed mean the total victory of the Dark One. There would be no one else to stop him from breaking completely free, with the seals effectively gone. So again, hopefully we'll learn something new about the mechanics involved, because unless we do, the Shadow has been shooting itself in the foot almost from day one.

 

Interview: Feb 26th, 2003

tarvalon.net Q&A (Verbatim)

Question

 

Was Ishamael lying when he told Rand that the hero of the Light had turned to the Shadow in other lifetimes?

Robert Jordan

 

No he was not. Even those who lie sometimes tell the truth when it serves their purposes.

 

That question was in reference to the passge where Ishy was telling Rand he specifically had turned and served the DO, it was not some generic "CoL".

 

Further we have Brandon's quote that Ishy and Rand are like Birgitte and Gaidal frequently spun out together and have fought this war many times...

 

&

 

Interview: Jan 16th, 2003

 

COT Signing Report - Tim Kington (Paraphrased)

Question

 

(inaudible)

Robert Jordan

 

Yes, the Champion of the Light has gone over in the past. This is a game you have to win every time. Or rather, that you can only lose once—you can stay in if you get a draw. Think of a tournament with single elimination. If you lose once, that's it. In the past, when the Champion of the Light has gone over to the Shadow, the result has been a draw.

 

Considering how many times this war has been fought it is hardly an assumption to say just killing Rand isn't enough and certain other conditions need to be met. Killing Rand would fall under "stoping the Dragon from doing things he was born to do" which I already provided in a quote above. That only acheived a lesser victory for the DO. When I say an all out assault was a failure I mean a failure in actually freeing the DO. He has certainly done it a number of times and is not yet free.

 

But then later on when giving Isam soldiers they differentiated between channelers and soldiers. Those that can't channel carried spears like the ones we saw kill the merchant while the "talented" such as the first two given to Isam carry no weapons. He was given some of both group IIRC to fulfill his task of hunting Rand. Don't have it in front of me to double check.

 

You're right that there are a few Talentless around, but they don't wear the Red Veils - those are only for the Samma N'Sei. So, the men who killed Barriga could channel. They just didn't need to in that situation.

 

Isam was, however, given some of each to help with his hunt.

 

Could you provide the quote showing they don't have the veils for soldiers. I don't recall that. AS I read it Isam says specifcally the channelers don't carry weapons.

[Neophyte]

Sorry, what? How do "we know 100% for sure he has been turned and it resulted in a draw"? I'm not familiar with that quote at all.

 

What I'm saying is that last time, even in what was mostly a victory for the DO, the Dragon took action that prevented an "ultimate victory." While not a terribly good solution, LTT's sealing of the Bore was better than the DO breaking completely free.

 

Your statement that "certain conditions need to be met beyond just klling th[e] Dragon" is an assumption. It is one which I hope it true, but we don't know that - indeed, given only what we know it seems that the death of the Dragon would indeed mean the total victory of the Dark One. There would be no one else to stop him from breaking completely free, with the seals effectively gone. So again, hopefully we'll learn something new about the mechanics involved, because unless we do, the Shadow has been shooting itself in the foot almost from day one.

 

Interview: Feb 26th, 2003

tarvalon.net Q&A (Verbatim)

Question

 

Was Ishamael lying when he told Rand that the hero of the Light had turned to the Shadow in other lifetimes?

Robert Jordan

 

No he was not. Even those who lie sometimes tell the truth when it serves their purposes.

 

That question was in reference to the passge wher Ishy was telling Rand he specifically had turned and served the DO, it was not some generic "CoL".

 

Further we have Brandon's quote that Ishy and Rand are like Birgitte and Gaidal frequently spun out together and have fought this war many times...

 

&

 

Interview: Jan 16th, 2003

 

COT Signing Report - Tim Kington (Paraphrased)

Question

 

(inaudible)

Robert Jordan

 

Yes, the Champion of the Light has gone over in the past. This is a game you have to win every time. Or rather, that you can only lose once—you can stay in if you get a draw. Think of a tournament with single elimination. If you lose once, that's it. In the past, when the Champion of the Light has gone over to the Shadow, the result has been a draw.

 

Wow. I had never seen those quotes from RJ before - thanks much! I wonder what it does take for a complete win for the Shadow then?

 

 

But then later on when giving Isam soldiers they differentiated between channelers and soldiers. Those that can't channel carried spears like the ones we saw kill the merchant while the "talented" such as the first two given to Isam carry no weapons. He was given some of both group IIRC to fulfill his task of hunting Rand. Don't have it in front of me to double check.

 

You're right that there are a few Talentless around, but they don't wear the Red Veils - those are only for the Samma N'Sei. So, the men who killed Barriga could channel. They just didn't need to in that situation.

 

Isam was, however, given some of each to help with his hunt.

 

Could you provide the quote showing they don't have the veils for soldiers. I don't recall that. AS I read it Isam says specifcally the channelers don't carry weapons.

 

Well, it doesn't say it outright, but Isam always equates the veils with the Samma N'Sei. Like this paragraph, for example:

 

Isam nearly left right then, stepping into the dream. He couldn't kill both of these men. He'd have been reduced to ash before he managed to take down one of them. He'd seen Samma N'Sei kill; they often did it just to explore new ways of using their powers.

They didn't attack. Did they know this woman was Chosen? Why, then, lower their veils? Samma N'Sei never lowered their veils except to kill - and only for the kills they were most eagerly anticipating.

 

And the Samma N'Sei are clearly differentiated from the Talentless:

 

The Samma N'Sei, the Eye Blinders, has always been touchy and full of pride. No, touchy was too mild a term. They required no more than whim to take a knife to one of the Talentless. Usually it was one of the servants who paid. Usually.

 

So, clearly the servants (who were not wearing veils) are included in the Talentless. This seems to make it clear that the red veils are meant to distinguish the Samma N'Sei from all others, and that the Samma N'Sei are all channelers.

[Suttree]

Well, it doesn't say it outright, but Isam always equates the veils with the Samma N'Sei. Like this paragraph, for example:

 

Isam nearly left right then, stepping into the dream. He couldn't kill both of these men. He'd have been reduced to ash before he managed to take down one of them. He'd seen Samma N'Sei kill; they often did it just to explore new ways of using their powers.

They didn't attack. Did they know this woman was Chosen? Why, then, lower their veils? Samma N'Sei never lowered their veils except to kill - and only for the kills they were most eagerly anticipating.

 

The Samma N'Sei, the Eye Blinders, has always been touchy and full of pride. No, touchy was too mild a term. They required no more than whim to take a knife to one of the Talentless. Usually it was one of the servants who paid. Usually.

 

So, clearly the servants (who were not wearing veils) are included in the Talentless. This seems to make it clear that the red veils are meant to distinguish the Samma N'Sei from all others, and that the Samma N'Sei are all channelers.

 

You could be right, when I get home tonight I will pull the parts I am thinking about to show how it relates...

[Vardar]

The Samma N'Sei are hardly an unstoppable force. Against the might of a united continent, they have no chance. (Like the Aiel war, everyone banded together. Just on a grand scale)

 

As said numerous times, it is simple tactics. No commander just throws the full force of their troops at the enemy and hopes for the best.

 

No, the best option is to gather your strength, plant discord and sow as much chaos as you can to weaken your opponent.

 

Who would you rather fight, a fully fit person ready to go - yeah, you know you are stronger, but that doesn't necessarily mean victory - or someone who has an arm and a leg cut off, suffering from blood loss? The Shadow doesn't play fair, it wants to win.

 

I guess it depends on how many are channelers. The impression I get is thousandds of them, able to channel. If that was the case, they would have destroyed the world before they united. Who would have stopped them? The white tower? How many sisters are there at any given time? Prior to 3 years ago, at best there would have been a few hundred sisters there, against thousands of channelers?

 

I'll concede Neo's point, I mentioned it in the other thread. That's the only excuse I'll accept, but then again, it'll have to be one hell of a specific need for Rand to do to make it make sense. At the very least, sweep out of the Borderlandds, SMASH the WT, and sweep back. What could it hurt?

[Neophyte]

The Samma N'Sei are hardly an unstoppable force. Against the might of a united continent, they have no chance. (Like the Aiel war, everyone banded together. Just on a grand scale)

 

As said numerous times, it is simple tactics. No commander just throws the full force of their troops at the enemy and hopes for the best.

 

No, the best option is to gather your strength, plant discord and sow as much chaos as you can to weaken your opponent.

 

Who would you rather fight, a fully fit person ready to go - yeah, you know you are stronger, but that doesn't necessarily mean victory - or someone who has an arm and a leg cut off, suffering from blood loss? The Shadow doesn't play fair, it wants to win.

 

I guess it depends on how many are channelers. The impression I get is thousandds of them, able to channel. If that was the case, they would have destroyed the world before they united. Who would have stopped them? The white tower? How many sisters are there at any given time? Prior to 3 years ago, at best there would have been a few hundred sisters there, against thousands of channelers?

 

I'll concede Neo's point, I mentioned it in the other thread. That's the only excuse I'll accept, but then again, it'll have to be one hell of a specific need for Rand to do to make it make sense. At the very least, sweep out of the Borderlandds, SMASH the WT, and sweep back. What could it hurt?

 

I seriously doubt that there are "thousands of them." The numbers of channelers as a percentage of the population are low to start with, and the Samma N'Sei training sounds brutal. The death of about a dozen seemed like a big deal in Isam's mind when he thought about it (remembering stories of Moridin's first appearance in the Town). In short, my impression is that there are maybe, maybe a few hundred.

 

We'll see if I'm wrong, though ...

[Agravayne]

I did read the prologue. I'm currently working on a way to cryogenically freeze myself to be thawed on Jan 8, 2013.

 

Anyway, Isam described evil-Town as a "good sized town, if you squinted." So maybe its Baerlon sized at best. Breeding programs or not, 2000 years or not, there's at best a couple thousand people "living" there and that I think limits the number of Eye Blinder's that they can have.

 

Remember, in Randland proper -- with the entire population of millions of people -- the Reds are only finding a handful of men per decade. Granted, they are missing the learners, but it seems clear that they largely find the sparkers. Taim's crash course of training only had the hope of finding ~ 1000 men over the entire population. Even with that Narishma was still notable because he had the spark.

 

I'm not saying its a problem for Randland -- even one rogue Male Channeler is a engine of destruction on his own. Just, I wouldn't imagine and army of channeling corrupted Aiel.

[Suttree]

The impression I get is thousandds of them, able to channel. If that was the case, they would have destroyed the world before they united. Who would have stopped them? The white tower? How many sisters are there at any given time? Prior to 3 years ago, at best there would have been a few hundred sisters there, against thousands of channelers?

 

As of NS there were four hundred and twenty-three AS in residence at the WT and twice that number out in the world.

[thisguy]

If I remember right, during the AOL 3% of the population could channel. Let's say only about 1/3 of a percent are sparkers. Let us then assume that there are around 2 million aiel, half of which are men. That's probably around 150000 men a year being born. 1/3 of a percent of 150000 is around 500 sparkers a year. Let's say 1/10th of those are caught and turned by the shadow, that's 50 a year. That still seems like a lot as there doesn't seem to be even fifty sparkers found every year by the AS. But, my point is, a large settlement of these guys is a possibility. Even if you make it 5 a year, in 200 years that's a 1000 and since they'll live 100s of years it's a possibility.

[PaulChauvet]

The amount of people with the ability to channel (especially those born with the spark) has dramatically dropped from AOL levels. Most likely due to the killing of male channelers.

[thisguy]

The amount of people with the ability to channel (especially those born with the spark) has dramatically dropped from AOL levels. Most likely due to the killing of male channelers.

That's true, but in the end I took a 1/10th of the figure I came out with.