At TG, are the forces balanced?

[dimmu666]

Okies...what do we have here?

 

Light:

Rand- Dragon!

Perrin- Wolfking

Mat- Bandleader, prince of ravens

Boarderlanders

Children of the light

Egwene and the tower

The good ashaman

The use of fireworks as explosives (aludra)

Callandor

The dragonized nations - Tear, Cairhien, Illian,

Some not yet dragonized- Arad doman, andor?, mayene, altara? Tarabon?

Malkier

The Seanchan (pretty sure they'll fight for light)

 

vs

 

Darkness:

Shaitan (when he is freed)- yo he can totally blow up the world

The Forsaken- Moridin, aran/osan gar, Graendal, Moghedien, cyndane, demandred, mesaana

Shaidar Haran

Dreadlords

The black ajah

Darkfriends

Fades

Trollocs

Golam

Bat/vampire thingies

Worm things

messed up trees that want to kill you

 

So are they actually balanced? To me, the light looks like a winner...i mean you have heaps of men which are actaully good at fighting vs the retarded trollocs. The forsaken can't really get to Rand cos hes got a strong possy (cadsuane, nynaeve, Alivia, logain, some other ashys and aes) and at TG hes got callandor. After Aes and Ashys bond, they form much more powerful circles no? The badies don't have many male chanellers (taim, the male forsaken, some evil ashys) but mostly they only got women who can't make as powerful circles.

 

The seanchan are totally awesome and can whip trolloc ass anyday. Plus they got torm things, raken things, grolm things that can animalize them faggot worms and trollocs pretty good too.

 

Seems to me that everything depends on the DO getting out, if he does, the light is screwed. Theres no point really, no one can take him on and the creator is away on a cruise up along the coast of Shara. The mesed up trees? well...someone take aludra's matches and burn the hell outta them.

 

To me its obvious the light is gonna kick arse, just the matter of making the DO fight more spectacular really...

[Luckers]

The light currently has, according to my calculations, somewhere around 2.3 million fighters and 14,000 channelers. The Dark, meanwhile, likely has more fighteres... in and aroudn 5 to 6 million. But less channelers. 3,500 at worst 12,000 at best.

[MetalMonkeyMood]

Well, I think that the Light definately seems to be much stronger than the Shadow right now, but I can't help but feel that I'm missing something. RJ has said that the forces of light are in a bad way, we know that the forsaken et al are feeling fairly confident, and for the sake of good story telling there has to be more of a battle than "Light armies charge and steamroller the Shadow". Even with the Land of Madmen thrown in, more darkfriends than logical amongst the armies and Shadowspawn flooding out of the blight, there MUST be seomthing more.

[dimmu666]

hahah luckers you must be good a maths. Um yeah i think we're missing something here...from the end of KoD, it seems pretty obvious the light will win...elayne gets Andor, Rand gets semirhage, aes and ashys bonding, perrin gets faile back plus allies seanchan, mat marries tuon; seanchan prince, armies gathering in arad doman, aiel...everything is clearing up and the dark are pretty pissedddd. we know for sure RJ wouldn't just let the light win so easily...but the forces are unbalanced....

[Luckers]

RJ has asserted that the Light is in a bad way. Personally i think he is wrong... he has created a situation in which his good guys are too strong, and is now trying to backpedal. But meh.

 

Also i hate math, the numbers are simple addition based on the statements of force distribution in the text. I actually lay it out fully in a thread in the Memory of Light Forum called Millitary Leadership in the Last Battle.

[MetalMonkeyMood]

Dimmu, Luckers had a very thorough breakdown of the forces in this thread:

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=5678

 

It's really interesting, read it through.

[Guest Majsju]

What you forget to consider is the position of the powers. Rand may have assembled a massive army, and once Egwene can seize control of all Aes Sedai, and Logain deal with Taim, a good number of channelers available. But unlike the shadow, Rand does not have anyone infiltrating the enemy's ranks. The Lights armies are infested with darkfriends, and don't count on them to run off to join the shadow as soon as TG starts. Most of them will stay, and take some kind of action at key points in the war.

 

We have seen that Rand is far more dependant on resources and logistics than the shadow. Poisoning a watersource, poisoining the food can weaken huge parts of his army. Meanwhile, as long as there are humans, trollocs can keep fighting and happily fill their bellies.

 

An army without food is like a tank without gas.

[Luckers]

True enough.

[Alarwyn Liande]

And, there's also the fact that the army of Light is not one single army under one commander, but a myriad of different people. Rand and his close friends, the Seanchan, Aes Sedai, Asha'man, different nations and their armies... They all have their own interests and while Rand does have some influence, the other rulers have their say.

 

Whereas on the Dark side... No one disobeys the Dark Lord.

[Guest Majsju]

And of course, I am pretty sure we haven't seen all the forces the shadow has. We got a hint in TEOTW, with the worms in the Blight. What else is waiting there to be unleashed?

 

Slayer could take out most commanders in a single night, that'd be quite a blow for the lights armies.

 

The shadow has at least one Gholam. What good are thousands of channelers against that little bugger, if the shadow can reel it in and give it new orders?

And there is the possibility that there are two of them, we still don't know if the one chasing Mat was the same that ripped Herid Fel apart.

 

And as we've seen, the DO's ability to touch the world is constantly increasing. Who can tell what he'll be able to do next.

 

I am pretty sure we haven't seen even half of what SH is capable of.

 

Etc...

[dimmu666]

ahh yeah i forgot that luc/isam/slayer thing. He can pop out of T'A'R anytime, anywhere right? who actaully gives him orders? i mean, if hes so good theres not much stopping him from killing all the generals, perrin, mat and even rand. Doesn't even channel...

hahha i just got a weird vision; imagine an army of grey men haha! i mean you don't see them right? but what if its like thousands of them marching straight at you...that would be totally freakazoid. They'd be killing people and no one will know what is happening. weird....

I've read luckers' breakdown of forces and it really is impressive. So we agree that the shadow will outnumber the light by at least 10 times cos they're just pumping out trollocs like factories in China. But from Sun Tzu's Art of War, the greatest military strategist's guide we have "superior numbers alone infer no advantage". Mat's crossbow crank, aludra's explosives, steam engine application, strategy and of course, angreal/ter angreal and more chanellers means the light has the edge.

But really, RJ can't make TG happen after the DO is free because once hes free, we know theres no point in fighting. Whilst hes still trapped he can kill the entire world by inflicting famine or freeze ppl to death...i mean no one can stand up to that. But doesn't that make you think...why the hell didn't Rand go with Lanfear that hot babe and kick the DO's ass with the Choedan Kal!? dude....c'mon!

[RobertAlexWillis]

.... of COURSE the Light is going to win.

 

Why?

 

It's a STORY.

[Mystica]

*sipping her drink*

 

 

Wouldn't it be cool if at the very end, when Rand confronts the DO the Light actually produces an actual Dragon for Rand to ride on?

 

It's always been weird to me to talk about the Dragon Reborn in a story where not one nation or people seem to remember what a Dragon is let alone has seen one. The closest would come the flying thingies from the Sanchean, I suppose, but they're not really Dragons.

 

And duh, of course the Light will win. If it doesn't, I'll go box RJ's ears in true Nyneave style.

 

*nods*

[Bob T Dwarf]

OK. So, we all want the Light to win. But, think about it for a minute. Do they deserve to win?

 

If the Light wins the whole subtext of the entire 12 books will be, "Be stupid and prosper."

 

Granted, there's no conflict and no drama if somebody isn't acting stupidly. But, EVERYBODY???

 

Can anyone, off the top of their heads, come up with a larger group of characters who have, individually and collectively, been dumber, more selfish, more shortsighted, more perverse, and less in touch with their true, best self-interest than this bunch?

 

The expression, "dumber'n a box-o-rocks" has been used. Boy, is it apt.

[TaeaDawn]

And can we remember one more thing please?

 

Betrayal. We've seen a bit of it, but the forces of light are always beseiged by betrayal at critical moments. I don't think we've seen the last turncoat in the series :P

 

[RobertAlexWillis]

Can anyone, off the top of their heads, come up with a larger group of characters who have, individually and collectively, been dumber, more selfish, more shortsighted, more perverse, and less in touch with their true, best self-interest than this bunch?

 

The Forsaken.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Yeah, they've been pretty dumb, too, but overall, in terms of positioning themselves to win the battle, less so than the good guys.

 

In fact, some of their dumber moves seem a little too dumb. That makes me suspicious about what is really going on inside Moridin's head.

[Voices of Reason]

Correct me if I have a mistaken timeline, but at the end of several books are quotes describing the events that happened at the end of that particular book. Like when the Aes Sedai kneel to Rand at Dumai's Wells. The quote is that of a poet or historian in the 4th Age. Everything happening now is the 3rd Age so, in theory, the light has already been proclaimed the winner. I think the book Loial is writing is the definitive history of the Dragon Reborn in later years/ages and the gleemen of the 4th Age use it to compose tales.

 

The light has won already, there are just some details to work out I think.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Yeah, they've been pretty dumb, too, but overall, in terms of positioning themselves to win the battle, less so than the good guys.

 

In terms of who got killed, they haven't been less dumb than the good guys. In fact, compared to where the good guys started in terms of experience, the Forsaken have been thoroughly trounced. They all came to the conflict with a ten year long war under their belt, and hundreds of years channeling the Power. Yet somehow, the majority of them have died at least once, and at least one has died twice.

 

I'm not saying the good guys are tactical geniuses (Mat excepted, stealing Tuon out from under the Seanchan's nose was pretty good). But the Forsaken have been just horrid, tactically, for exactly the reasons you stated. Allow me to quote:

 

They have been,

individually and collectively, been dumber, more selfish, more shortsighted, more perverse, and less in touch with their true, best self-interest

 

As for this:

 

The light has won already, there are just some details to work out I think.

 

I don't think anyone (sane) is challenging that ... it is a STORY.

[Lews Therin Telamon]

Rand will win Tarmon Gaidon but there will be no army left. Thats how it should happen anyway. RJ should make a full book out of Tarmon Gaidon

[Voices of Reason]

I don't think anyone (sane) is challenging that ... it is a STORY.

 

I know, I was simply showing, to anyone that questions the fact, proof from the books that the outcome has already been shown.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Well, the formula for all fiction is that the bad guys are always undone by their own character flaws.

 

Thus, the back-biting, posturing, and arrogant, man-to-man-mine-are-bigger-than-yours stuff is expected from the bad guys. Required, even.

 

What's galling is the backbiting, posturing, and arrogant do-it-my-way-because-I-say-so-and,-no-I-won't-explain-why attitude from almost all of the good guys.

 

I mean, it's gettin' TOUGH to find anybody to really care about here anymore. From top-to-bottom, ya just wanna line 'em all up and spend about 6 months dope-slapping the lot of them.

[RobertAlexWillis]

What's galling is the backbiting, posturing, and arrogant do-it-my-way-because-I-say-so-and,-no-I-won't-explain-why attitude from almost all of the good guys.

 

Ummmm .... thats how real people act. Watch the news.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Not, ALL real people.

 

Besides, this is supposed to be fantasy. There's supposed to be an element of bigger and better than real life about it.

 

What's also true about real life is that when catastrophe's happen, real people buckle-down and do what really needs to be done before the idiots-in-charge can mess it up beyond redemption.

 

Let's face it. The morons are only still on the field because the idiots can't stop shooting themselves in the foot. "Ooh, that felt so good I think I'll do it some more."

[dimmu666]

Yeah i agree...the characters become quite unlikable (well cept for mat cos hes just the bomb) because of this constant dramatic irony...they don't know jack even when its right under their noses.

But Robert's point is pretty true too, thats how most ppl act...esp politicians. And RJ keeps stressing the point that this is NOT a story. In many parts he says "in a story, the hero would be..." "in a story...blahblah" helps convey to us that the WoT isn't just a fantasy story but kinda like history of a world/age..just like Tolkien.

 

But are we actaully sure the light would win? i mean yes there are prophecy quotes saying "4th age" but if we know the light would win anyways...whats all the hype about TG? its just a matter of finding out HOW they win then eh? its like knowing the outcome of a chess game before you start...thats retarded.