[Advanced Mafia] Black Ajah - GAME OVER!

[Krakalakachkn]

unvote

 

I'm satisfied with her explanation. Redundant posting of reasoning is unnecessary AND berf did have plenty of time to reveal/give us an excuse not to lynch him.

[Blackhoof]

I think AJ's comment was sarcastic, but, really, Blackhoof? Is this how you hunt scum, vote for the people who use hypotheticals?

 

were you though? WIFOM.

 

 

 

lmao XD

[bgrishinko]

It's late and I'm tired and the next few days are going to get busy for me as there are only 3 days of the semester left before finals and Graduation. As such I don't have a lot of time to layout my case I've got brewing. In any case, it is mostly intuition, but I wanted to vote in case I don't have a lot of time to do it later and something drastic happens.

VOTE DREW

[Talmanes]

Not much to add atm, but I'm going to keep my vote where it is for now.

[Red2111]

guys, i can see why people would focus on Leelou even though she's not on the list, those last 3 votes on berfs lynch stink to me as well.

 

also, Wombat is a curious choice, was it an attempt at a frame job, big game hunting, or did he have teh scum scared. he FoS'd Song & Aust heavily so this is somehting i think worth pointing out. both of these people were on both lynches btw. with Song being one of those scummy votes (to include CS's pointing out of her "slip up" of what L-# Song put him at with her vote)

 

i also agree that the short list is gonna bare us the most fruit. again, i can't see a scum willingly give up a NK, i happen to think both teams were likely on the last lynch and the healer did a good job by blocking one of the kills or both teams went for Wombat. this means we have a higher % chance of finding scum in the short list; as i think all members except for Mav were on the 1st lynch, and all scum members were on this last lynch. i also no longer thing theres a SK, given what Alanna said about "teams" being able to secure a perminate NK; as the words teams indicated 2 or more groups.

 

 

The Short list

 

Talmanes,

Aust,

csarmi,

Drew,

Song,

BG,

 

 

since we know Phelix was town, maybe he had some inside knowledge about the 3 thing. going on this assumption (as well as there only being 2 scum teams) this would put the remaining scum 3's at "Team A - 3" & Team B-2" that leaves 5 total scum alligned people. this means that 1 on our list is likely to be town, while the rest are likely to be scum (which is pretty good odds if you ask me)

 

out of this list, i find these 4 to be most scummy

 

Aust & Song are equally scummy imo, for reasons both myself & wombat have pointed out

 

Drew & BG are next, on top of what others have pointed out on Drew, i also find the exchange quoted below to be suspicious.

 

 

this leaves CS & Talms as potential innocents and these are the two i'd be less willing to vote. Talms is higher on my list than CS because today he tried (& almsot succeeded too) in getting us to lynch womone not on our list where it's most likely to find a scum.

 

 

I am kinda leaning towards Drew since he was so fast to put together an argument against someone who isnt on the red hot list

 

This argument doesn't make any sense, Curt, unless you think each person on the "red hot list" is on my scum team. Your implication is that I'm trying to draw attention away from everyone on that list. I would try to put together a wagon against someone on that list who wasn't on my team.

 

I think it is obvious that Drew is talking using Curt's Drew accusation as "truth." A sort of, "If I were scum..." way of saying things. I think it obvious from the bolded part.

 

FOS at Drew & BG. Drew for the fruedian slip and BG for comming to his defence.

[csarmi]

Red,

 

So we're assuming there are two maffia teams with 3-3 members. Team A was on 1st lynch (and NK'd a member of team B). Team B wasn't on 1st lynch (well, at least one member wasn't).

Now team A has 3 members ans Team B has 2 members, right?

I mean this is the assumption most people seem to make, and it sounds reasonable too.

 

You're saying that both teams (Team A and Team B) were on today's lynch, but for some reason, there has been only one death. It doesn't seem very likely, but I can buy that.

1) They could have been stopped by healer,

2) could have targetted the same person (not very likely, however, I mean one team hitting an unlikely player is one thing, but TWO teams focusing on the same guy on the long list'?)

3) or one of the teams might have given up their nightkill

 

But do you also assume that both teams (3+2 players) are among those six players on the short list? Cause I don't know where you got that. I mean, from what you said, all that follows is that the short list has at least 3 scum (Team A).

[Red2111]

CS it stems from my belief that no Mafia would willingly forego their NK on purpose (ie: purposefully not be on a lynch) that the only reason there was one kill N1 was cause Mav didn't get back intime to put his vote on the lynch for what ever reason.

 

 

because of this, i think that his other two members were on the D1 lynch, as well as the memebrs of Scum Team A. to further analyze this, i can't see there not being all memebrs of both scum teams being on the D2 lynch. Team A because again i can't see a scum team givign up a kill and Team B becuase they'd already missed 1 kill, to miss two in a row leaves them open especailly with havign lost one of their memebrs already. logically, the chances are good imo that all 5 remaining scum have been on both lynches thus far.

 

this is an assumption ofcourse, and i could be wrong; but it's the best i have to go on and is what my gut is telling me. plus it's the easiest answer to all of this, and often the easiest answer is the best.

 

 

 

as for why only one kill happened last night; it really depends on the roles and who was targetted. there are many other protector type roles that could stop a NK just as easily as healer; and i'm certianly not complaining about it. also, theres the chance both scum teams could have targetted Wombat; which i have seen happen before.

[Red2111]

you know, another thing comes to mind.

 

 

if i were scum and were in this situation, i'd try to destract away from the whole list idea. especially considering that our chances of hitting scum are between 40% to 95% (2 scum beign the least amount on the lynch to achieve a NK, 5 scum being the most)

 

 

major FOS at Talm for attempting to focus a lynch on someone not on the list and less likely to be scum

[bgrishinko]

you know, another thing comes to mind.

 

 

if i were scum and were in this situation, i'd try to destract away from the whole list idea. especially considering that our chances of hitting scum are between 40% to 95% (2 scum beign the least amount on the lynch to achieve a NK, 5 scum being the most)

 

 

major FOS at Talm for attempting to focus a lynch on someone not on the list and less likely to be scum

Since I've looked at the numbers already, I think it is my duty to point this out.

 

 

Uh... 40% to 95%? Assuming you are still talking about the Scary Six... 2/6 = 33.3% and 5/6 = 83%...

83% is assuming BOTH ENTIRE mafia teams are located within the Scary Six.

 

But we don't even know for certain (although it is likely) that Team A was on both lynches, and that the newer people on vote 2 were not on Team B. Your numbers don't pan out and that is A LOT of conjecture to make.

[Red2111]

BG i didn't actually get out a calculator to put down the exact % lol i was going off the top of my head quickly. and i did state that this is based on my assumptions of what i think is likely and what isnt and that i could be wrong; but as no one said anythign about it, i figured it was worth pointing out my thoughts incase others feel the same way. right now i have no inside info BG, so conjector and whats happened on thread is all i have to go on.

 

 

now, aside from my % not beging exactly right to the decimal, is there anything you disagree with, or any thoughts on what i have stated (other than ofcourse pointing out what i've already said within the post that it's based on assumption)

 

 

[Red2111]

also, interesting to note that you focus in on the minor part of my post and totaly ignore the reason for my post, which was FOSing Talm over destracting away from teh short list theory by votign for soemoen not on the list.

 

 

also, seeing how fast those votes built up; i'm guessing there are a few scum on leelou's vote. might be worth it to pressure those individuals who both voted for leelou and are on our short list even more.

[Red2111]

Talms, Drew & CS are all on the short list & threw votes on Leelou quickly. her lynch built up to 4 fast. Talms started it, with Drew voting next, Krak giving a 3rd vote and CS voting last. krak unvoted but these three that are on our short list haven't.

 

i can't say it's likely all 3 are scum, but i think the chances are good atleast one of them are; and i can't see them being on the same team even if all 3 or 2 out of 3 are scum, it would be too obvious a link. and with the scum already walking a tight rope with this short list and having been possibly narrowed down, i can see them jumping a any way that shifts focus off the short list.

 

 

 

by conparison; look at how slowly a vote for Drew (who is on the short list) has built up. i'm not saying this implicates Drew; but more points to the fact that the scum don't want that list narrowed down. this is another reason i think we'd bare much more fruit lynching fromt he short list today.

[csarmi]

Red, I don't understand why it is scummy to advertise a leelou lynch. I certainly believe my reasons to be good enough.

I simply disagree with you when you claim that we have to use the smaller list ONLY when we're looking for scum.

I think we have to use the longer list for that's where I'm sure Team B members are. Leelou is a good candidate being one of them, in my opinion.

 

With that said, I'm not saying my vote is set in stone. If I see a good claim on someone else, I'm like to change my vote.

 

But you see, with your assumptions, should I believe that all the other FIVE players on the short list (except me) are scum?

That's where Team A and Team B are and that's all there is to it?

 

If only life were so simple.

[csarmi]

Unofficial Vote Count:

 

Leelou (3) - Talmanes, Drew, csarmi

Drew (3) - Blackhoof, Curt, BG

 

I hope that's correct.

8 to lynch.

[Alanna]

That is correct.

 

MODSPEAK: When you guys color code things, can you not use the color red? It confuses me when trying to get a vote count.

[csarmi]

For easy reading, I think Blackhoof's list is helpful:

 

SOMETHING YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF: THERE IS A WAY FOR A MAFIA TEAM TO GAIN A PERMANENT NIGHTKILL.

 

Only one NK. Comparison:

 

Day 2

Vote Count:

Blackhoof (3) - Red, Berf, Curt

Drew (1) - Meesh

Wombat (1) - Blackhoof

Berf (9) - Talmanes, Aust, Wombat, Krak, csarmi, Drew, Song, BG (Tynaal), leelou

 

Not Voting (2): Player, AJ

 

Day 1

Vote Count:

Aust (2) - Meesh, Phelix

Meesh (1) - Thorum(AJ)

Red (2) - Player, Wombat

Phelix (10) - Berf, Song, Blackhoof, Tynaal(BG), Aust, Drew, Curt, Talmanes, csarmi, Red

Blackhoof (1) - Krak

 

Not Voting (1): Mav, leelou

 

Okay, i have divided the players into three categories:

Red: On both lynches

Blue: On one lynch

Green: On neither

 

 

The shortlist:

 

Talmanes, csarmi, Drew, Aust, BG (Tynaal), Song

 

The long list:

 

1) Krak and leelou (second lynch only)

2) Blackhoof, Curt, Red (first lynch only)

+ the long list

 

Obvious FOS @ the shortlist members.

The players in 1) might have missed the first lynch (as Team B) and joined the second lynch in time. Both (along with Mav!) had time to join the Phelix lynch, however. At around 6-7 votes which would be a quite comfortable time for a scum to join a lynch, I suppose?

The players in 2) might have missed the second lynch. All I can add is that that one was quite easy to miss, I mean it was building up very, very fast. Any of them may be Team A member, missing this time (or Team B member, first time joining the lynch, the second time missing it - have a hard time believing, however, that a team with supposedly two members (Team B) would miss a second lynch too).

[csarmi]

Of course all that assuming that there are two teams of maffia having 3 members each.

I've tried to give an unbiased summary, please let me know if I missed something.

[csarmi]

With that, a good night to everyone :)

[hotpocket2006]

Okay I am back and ready to play for real this time. It was a stressful few days for me. And I just got back like an hour ago from a 7 hour drive.

 

Please stop using percentages or math of any kind. I'm not in school for a reason my eyes gloss over and I skip over the post. You need to dumb it down, especially as my brain is fried from this weekend. I promise I'll actually do a reread this time, last time I ended up getting a call and had to do Army classes on the net on my own time *grumbles*

[bgrishinko]

BG i didn't actually get out a calculator to put down the exact % lol i was going off the top of my head quickly. and i did state that this is based on my assumptions of what i think is likely and what isnt and that i could be wrong; but as no one said anythign about it, i figured it was worth pointing out my thoughts incase others feel the same way. right now i have no inside info BG, so conjector and whats happened on thread is all i have to go on.

 

 

now, aside from my % not beging exactly right to the decimal, is there anything you disagree with, or any thoughts on what i have stated (other than ofcourse pointing out what i've already said within the post that it's based on assumption)

 

 

You're right, I shouldn't have focused so much on the percentages... I don't know why they interest me so much in this particular game. I guess this is one of the few games that I feel like there is a way to prove scum besides just suspicions.

Anyway, other than the decimal thing, I don't disagree with your statements. They make sense actually. But I find it highly unlikely with only 1 NK that both mafia teams are part of the Scary Six. The chances seem very very slim to me, considering the (presumably) smaller size of Team B. I'll have to think it over more.

 

 

Okay I am back and ready to play for real this time. It was a stressful few days for me. And I just got back like an hour ago from a 7 hour drive.

 

Please stop using percentages or math of any kind. I'm not in school for a reason my eyes gloss over and I skip over the post. You need to dumb it down, especially as my brain is fried from this weekend. I promise I'll actually do a reread this time, last time I ended up getting a call and had to do Army classes on the net on my own time *grumbles*

 

... sorry... I can't help it. :( You can ignore them if you wish.

[Talmanes]

Well as to those who didn't like me voting for leelou, I vote for who I find scummy, regardless of lists.

I do this for one, because I trust my instincts more than lists, and two, because I have seen supposedly flawless lists be completely wrong. Sorry my activity is lower than normal, but I've just been very busy, and have a lot to do. Regardless I'll make sure that I post as regularly as possible, because I hate inactivity.

[Blackhoof]

MODSPEAK: When you guys color code things, can you not use the color red? It confuses me when trying to get a vote count.

 

hehe... sorry....

 

For easy reading, I think Blackhoof's list is helpful:

why, thank you.

 

i love that so many people like my list! i feel like such a good little helper.

 

@Red: while i love your usage of my SLSP (Short List of Scum Possibilities. official name. i trademarked it) i bring to light Austs comment that you FOS anyone who disagrees with you. people who have different opinions arent necessarily scum (Aemon in the Wheel of Time mafia anyone?) they just have different opinions. extremism isnt always helpful, reddy.

[Aust]

Two major inconsistencies from Red. First, the sudden 360 in regards to the issue of a SK vs 2 scum teams. Within the span of one post, she went from all out assault on the idea that there are two scum teams including a "huge FOS" at me for suggesting it. Now in the blink of an eye she's suddenly changed her whole point of view? I believe that people are capable of changing their mind on an issue - and should do so given the weight of evidence - but this is a major flip-flop. It was a big basis for her suspicion of me, and now she suddenly agrees with me on the matter, but still places me high on her list of suspects. I'm not quite clear of the basis for that now.

 

Second, the matter of looking at the voting lists. She railed against the idea of using the voting rule, and now states that scum are going to try to distract us from using voting lists. Again, a major 360 with no apparent rhyme or reason to it. This is a huge inconsistency on two separate matters.

 

Vote Red

[Blackhoof]

ooh, good point, aust!

 

i still think that drew is more scummy but if a lynch builds soon on red i will happily join.

[Red2111]

@Red: while i love your usage of my SLSP (Short List of Scum Possibilities. official name. i trademarked it) i bring to light Austs comment that you FOS anyone who disagrees with you. people who have different opinions arent necessarily scum (Aemon in the Wheel of Time mafia anyone?) they just have different opinions. extremism isnt always helpful, reddy.

 

/puts on her Hat

 

as a fellow mafia mod (i've run a hand full of games in my playing career) let me advise you Blackhoof that talking about an ongoing game is a big no-no and you should heed the warning that Alanna has already given people verbally in this game. not only can it lead to people slipping up and ruining the game for people still playing, but also as the game hasn't concluded you aren't privy to all the information as far as what roles players had, what info players had concerning the game and other players and what all went on behind the scenes. there for any asumptions you make about said game are purely that, assumptions.

 

/takes off her Hat

 

 

2ndly for those who weren't in the game here are the specs known to the public if you were to go look at the Game Thread. my character was Moraine, Blackies character was lynched Day 1 and turned out to be Be'lal and scum. Day 1 Aemon claimed to be the Dragon Reborn; as Moraine i had good inside information that he wasn't Rand Al'Thor and therefor could not be the true Dragon Reborn. my FOS of him on that game was because he was lieing about being the True Dragon. as you can see by Aemon's Corner report in said game, he was infact the unnamed Tarien Flase Dragon; so my FOSing of him in that game was founded seeing as i turned out to be right.

 

 

3rd, Blackhoof i highly suggest that you use evidence from this game if you want to try to discredit me, not other games. metagamming has a nasty little way of backfiring on those who use it too much; especially on people who act the same no matter their alignement. Aemon and my disagreement in the WoT game wasn't a disagreement; any more than a cop outting a scum is a disagreement. unless you'd like to argue that side Blackie which again i'd advise you not to unless you want to be lynched.

 

 

4th, though other people have sinced changed their opinion of you; i haven't in this game. you still ping me; from your actions & words on D1, to your slink back into the background to avoid notice and let the heat cool off you on D2, to your now "overly helpful" attitude concerning narrowing down and providing lists D3. the only reason i'm still not FOSing you and pushing for your lynch is because i think there is a sure chance of catching a scum on the SLSP