Caemlyn

[Terez]

I'm going to break this up some since I have a lot to say on this subject and a lot to respond to.

 

I'd say that were a battle to happen, it'd be an assault by the Shadow rather than the Seanchan. The Seanchan under Tuon would likely go after Illian, Arad Doman or Murandy rather than jump to Andor. Another possibility is the mainland Seanchan under whoever managed to seize power there (my vote is for Demandred).

 

Assume such a battle takes place, the big question in my mind is "why?" What significance does Caemlyn have that other cities lack? The only thing that comes to mind is that Caemlyn is attacked -because- the main characters, and the three ta'veren converge there.

Demandred likely lost most of his connections in Seanchan territory when he lost Semirhage, or at least most of them. Suroth was also a key player for their plans there, and her followers were essentially destroyed.

 

The reason why Caemlyn is important in Tuon's mind might be as simple as the fact that she knows Mat is probably headed there (or that this is where the rest of his army was waiting for him, and therefore a likely place for him to go). She wants Mat back. They promised each other that they would meet on the battlefield. With Tuon on the offensive, this is the most likely place for her to go.

 

She just got Traveling, and she'll only have a chance to use the surprise in battle once. Rand is expecting her to attack Illian and Arad Doman, and that's why he deployed half the Black Tower to guard those borders. He's given up on Arad Doman, and she knows he will expect her to go for Illian next, or Murandy, or Ghealdan. Tear, maybe. The obvious centers of Rand's power. But she might be clever enough to dig beneath the surface and discover that Rand's true strength is further north.

 

It might be as simple as Tuon learning from her newly captured Aes Sedai that the queen of Andor is a marath'damane. That, combined with her ulterior motives with Mat, would be reason enough for her to attack Andor, based on her own principles. She might learn from Elaida that Elayne is harboring wilders in the palace, wilders not bound by the Oaths. She might also have interest in attacking the Black Tower, right outside Caemlyn. If she does that, she'll need forkroot...and Elaida could even help her nurture one farm's worth. She seems to have a talent for making things grow. :)

 

It might be as simple as the fact that Aldeshar was the last nation to fall to Hawkwing. I imagine her side knows at least something of the history of Hawkwing's empire, and I would also not put it past her to read a Randland history or two. The last king of Aldeshar was Ishara's grandfather. Mat remembers leading the Golden Lions in their last defeat, and refusing to bow to Hawkwing as he died.

 

It might have something to do with the Superweapon. What if raken scouts discover the twin to the site of the Kin's farm, not far from Caemlyn? What if Elaida tells Tuon of the rumors that Elayne was in Ebou Dar around that time? What if Beslan tells her? Beslan has promised to serve her in truth. His decision suggests that he accounts her a fair leader, at least. What if he starts filling her in on these little details? I'm not sure if we know him well enough that he won't, even though Mat does inspire a certain loyalty. Ebou Dar men also have weird notions about who wears the pants in a relationship, and no doubt he will learn of their marriage. And, Brandon told us that the Seanchan are disappointed they did not get the Superweapon in the Tar Valon attack.

 

It might be as simple as the fact that Caemlyn is pretty much the heart of Randland territory. That is why Hawkwing wanted to build his capital not far from there, in the closest abandoned stedding (where he could be free of the Power).

 

Least likely is that she actually discovers that Elayne is pregnant with Rand's children. But that is a possibility as well.

 

 

A mainland Seanchan assault is unlikely unless Demandred has gotten involved and taught the damane Travel (using BA minions perhaps).

Fortunately, they have Elaida to teach it to them.

 

If there's an attack I hope it comes from the Shadow. Both cause it will be all out war and because another war between the light sides this close to TG, or even this far in TG would feel bad/uninteresting. The journey to the end is the point of any good story, but once it's time to end, any prolonging will just feel like it's in the way of the actual story.

Why do you feel like it's 'prolonging'? To me, it would seem pointless if Tuon and Mat didn't meet on the battlefield, like they said they would. One last time, before something happens that is freakish enough to make both sides a little more willing to bend. Mat's marriage to Tuon is obviously important, but probably not quite enough. That's why I think Rand will die. I also think that Nicola's Foretelling - he who is dead yet lives, land divided by the return - indicates that Rand will die before they make peace. Some have suggested a temporary truce, but I think that unlikely since the future teeters on the edge of a blade, and Rand is still important. That's what led to the Gawyn theory, moreso than the Arthurian legend.

 

Tuon has to bend on the damane issue, and possibly the da'covale as well. The Oath Rod might be necessary to bind her to these promises. But I don't think that Tuon will be the only one that has to bend, so it seems likely to me that she will get her Consolidation.

 

Hmmm i have always hated that theory of terez's. I love her? i think shes a girl, work she does and all the transcribing but that theory is just rediculous. why would a very insignificant character kill off the main? no sense.

Why do people never ask that question in reference to Alivia? Gawyn is far more significant than Alivia in the scheme of things. He has been marginalized because no one likes him, and no one likes him because he wants to kill Rand (and because he killed Hammar and Coulin, etc.), but he is significant other to one of the most major characters in the series (Egwene) and brother to another (Elayne). He can hardly be called insignificant.

 

Also, there has to be a good reason for Rand to die, but no one seems to have a problem with the idea of him dying at Shayol Ghul, where the Dark One will have the greatest access to his soul. As to 'why?' - the only reason for Rand to die is the link with Moridin. He has to die for it to be severed. This fulfills Min's viewing; they seem to merge, and one of them dies, but the other doesn't. I have won again, Lews Therin. Would seem that way, no? But that is why he has to die before the Last Battle - the link with Moridin compromises his chances. That's as good a reason for a death and resurrection as you'll ever get - religions don't usually give as good.

 

So why Gawyn? Because if Rand has to die for this, I'd rather him die because of an idiot's noble intentions than die at the hands of a Darkfriend. It just so happens that there is good evidence for many Lightfriends playing a hand in Rand's death. Alivia has to 'help', which to me means that she's not going to kill him outright, but rather she will play some role in the events that are necessary for Rand to die. There is also some paralleling between Mat and Judas, so the medallion was a very logical place to go for Alivia's role, especially considering that we've not seen her do much beyond the Battle of the Cleansing, where she was given several ter'angreal to aid her in what she does best: killing. This was also part of what helped to cement my belief that the Seanchan will be the ones to attack Caemlyn - Alivia's hatred for her captors is one of the few other things we know about her.

 

There is also a great deal of thematic evidence for the idea, both in WoT alone an in the connections between WoT details and details in the legends. For instance, Gawain's powers were strongest at noon because they were dependent on the sun. This probably slipped into the legends because of Gawain's Celtic origins, but whatever. There are a few small details that leaped out at me before I knew this: Egwene's comment - 'Betray? Gawyn Trakand, that word fits you as darkness fits the sun.' The Shienaran Welcome - 'Against what do we guard?' 'The Shadow at noon.' And also the fact that the sky went dark at noon when Jesus was on the cross, and the 'twice dawns the day' prophecy. They might not necessarily be related, but it seems to fit.

 

Also, by Steven Cooper's best estimation, Gawyn killed Hammar and Coulin two days after Sunday, the summer solstice and longest day of the year. It might have actually been on Sunday - we don't know. This is theoretically when Gawain's powers would have been the strongest, though it was most often mentioned that he was strongest at noon. That was his first betrayal. Sunday is coming up in a few weeks, as of this point in TOM. :)

 

There is so much more, including the as-yet-unknown importance of the whole Morgase plotline. Why has she been kept a secret for so long? Surely that is important? It ties into a lot of things, including Mat, who is responsible for Morgase's escape, and who also delivered the news of Morgase's 'death' to Cairhien, which is the news that Moiraine foresaw would come the day before her fight with Lanfear. I also spoke more of the Mat connection in other places, but he is a key player in Rand's death I think.

 

I also think there is a nice possibility that Gawyn won't actually be the one to kill Rand, though. In that case, they would fight, and Gawyn would probably manage to hurt Rand pretty bad. All it would take is a strike at his old, unhealed wound. Also interesting is that Gawain died of an old, unhealed wound in the legends, so there is a possibility there. But I think it is also possible that balefire is the only way to save Rand from being transmigrated by the Shadow, in which case I can see Moiraine playing that role. And I think her much more likely for that role than Alivia, despite the fact that Moiraine will presumably still be bound by the Oaths if she can still channel, and that we already know for sure Alivia is going to help him die.

 

Hmmm i have always hated that theory of terez's. I love her? i think shes a girl, work she does and all the transcribing but that theory is just rediculous. why would a very insignificant character kill off the main? no sense. and also it requires Mat to give up the foxhead and honestly who sees him doing THAT?

 

He offered to give it to Elayne before and she refused, so its not impossible. However, that was before he knew of the Gholam and before he knew he was going to enter the world of the Finns again. So I agree that its unlikely for him to do so now. But not impossible.

The gholam is actually a reason for him to leave it behind. He feels an obligation to protect Elayne and the other woman, and if it comes time to go to Ghenjei and the gholam is still in Caemlyn, then he will be even more likely to feel the need to leave it with her. The medallion is the only thing that can hurt the gholam, and Mat has already seen it almost kill Elayne before. I'm sure the image haunts him, just as the memory of Tylin haunts him.

 

I agree it'll be against the Shadow; the Seanchan would launch an attack against Illian or make a major push into Murandy before they tried to invade Andor.

That would be exactly what Rand would expect them to do. Better to use the element of surprise and strike at the heart; the weaker nations in between would be crushed soon enough. The Seanchan recruit locals quickly.

 

And I am willing to bet they are alot more cautious now that they have lost two forces just recently (against Rodel and Mat.)

General Turan told Ituralde that the force he destroyed was just a drop in the bucket, and I believe him. Tuon knows she doesn't have time to wait.

 

Ok, here are some thoughts.

 

Fortuona is concerned that the attack on Tar Valon will turn the Dragon against Seanchan, so it is possible that her next target will be a non-Dragon nation.

I think it is pretty common knowledge that Rand conquered Caemlyn and held it for a time. It's also pretty common knowledge that Elayne is his choice for the Sun Throne.

 

From a novel perspective--the number of channelers in the Royal Palace--including the Windfinders, whom RJ seems to have worked to keep in Caemlyn given the whole 'Elayne didn't realise the Kin could link to create gateways' thing puts Caemlyn in the best positing to resist a Seanchan invasion. Windfinders aren't afraid to use the Power as a weapon, and they're super angry about what the Seanchan have done. In addition it might serve as a great parallel between what the Aes Sedai could achieve and what an Unbound channeler can achieve.

I agree.

 

With Perrin/Galad Mat/Moiraine and Elayne already centered in Caemlyn, a Seanchan attack would bring Fortuona, and then Egwene, Rand and his crew would soon follow--none would put up with Andor falling to the Seanchan, thus supplying for all the major characters getting together as per Brandon's comment. I'd suggest this defeat might well be what leads Fortuona to being forced to submit to Rand.

I don't think she will be forced to submit at all. She will be forced to change a few policies, that's for sure...but I believe the Empire is important, and that Mat's marriage to Tuon is also significant, and not for getting Tuon to bow.

 

There are some things in the histories that point at this, namely the fact that the common man worshiped Hawkwing...only the nobles resented him, even though they were given positions of power in his Empire sometimes. Tuon's policy is far more diplomatic than Hawkwing's was. She at least allows rulers to keep their lands, ruling them absolutely with the exception of answering to Tuon - a fair and wise ruler - and providing men to the Empire's armies. Which are largely used to keep the peace, which they are quite good at.

 

The only thing Rand was unwilling to concede was the Seanchan treatment of channelers, and as I said above, I think this is the main area where Tuon will be forced to bend. But the rulers of Randland will also be forced to bend a little, and I think that Mat's distaste for the over-prideful nature of the nobility might come into play in the ultimate bargain.

 

A final note: last we saw Elayne she was planning to send Sul'dam who had been convinced they could channel back to Seanchan to demand they be leashed. That blow alone would be more than enough to draw Fortuona to attack Andor--perhaps the first use of Seanchan Travelling?

Elayne was sort of waffling on the issue last we heard of it, but this is definitely a possibility.

[Terez]

I must say I think a Seanchan attack is very unlikely, the size of the forces in Caemlyn is too great for anything but a raid, and that many troops can't get there, even by gateway, it would take a LONG time.

How long did it take for Rand to capture Illian by gateway? He took several thousand directly into the city in minutes.

 

And committing enough troops to win the battle would be virtually everything Tuon has.

I disagree with that completely.

 

Andoran Forces:

a) Elayne: 50k. Queen's Guard + Trakand leveis + mercs + House levies from her earliest supporters. She had 20k before the battle, with many more unable to get there or blocked by the siege. Est = 40k supporters + 10 QG & mercs.

b) Neutrals: 60k. Supporters & levies from the 6 houses that stood aside initially, but then swore to Elayne. Arathelle, Luan, Abelle, Aemlyn, Pellivar, Ellorien. Many may be undertrained. Ellorien is for Andor, but not Elayne.

c) Turncoats: 15-20k. Lir, Karins, and Sylvase changed sides late (save for Sylvase, who just became High Seat). They have 15-20k.

d) Rival Claimants: ?? 20k?. Arymilla, Naean, Jarid/Elenia. Hard to say how many, and not loyal to Elayne, but would fight for Andor (I think) against Seanchan.

-------------------------

130k (w/out rivals)-150k (with rivals) Andoran troops, maybe more. In Importance of Dyelin, they said they could nearly match the Borderlanders (200k), but 2/3 would be undertrained.

---------------------------

125 female channelers supporting Elayne, who haven't sworn the three oaths.

 

Plus:

1) Legion of the Dragon = 70k. 20 miles north of Caemlyn. Short swords and crossbows. Had 20k in aCoS and have been recruiting successfully the whole time. Linda guesses 70k, many may be undertrained. But the crossbow is the easy part, and if Mat in town for very long....

2) Band of the Red Hand = 30k. A couple miles south of town. Horse and foot and crossbows.

3) Perrin's Army = 11k + 100k refugees, many receiving martial training (and have a gift). 4k Two Rivers bowman, 1k Ghealdan lancers, 900 Winged guards + 5k mercenaries. 11 channelers (6 WO, 3 AS, 2 AM) + many of the refugees are starting to train with weapons.

4) Galad's army: 17k. Asunawa had 10-11k, Galad 7k.

---------------------------

 

Now we are up to 278k troops + 136 channelers (139 Teslyn, Joline, and Edsenia, not counting the sul'dam).

It's not clear whether or not the Legion are still around Caemlyn. Also, General Turan had 300,000 + 200 channelers and this is what he said about that:

 

TITLE - The Gathering Storm

CHAPTER: 6 - When Iron Melts

 

Turan shook his head in disbelief. "You realize what you have done," he said. There was no threat in his voice. In fact, there was a fair amount of admiration. "High Lady Suroth will never accept this failure. She will have to break you now, if only to save face."

 

"I know," Ituralde said, standing. "But I can't drive you back by attacking you in your fortresses. I need you to come to me."

 

"You don't understand the numbers we have . . ." Turan said. "What you destroyed today is but a breeze compared to the storm you've raised. Enough of my people escaped today to tell of your tricks. They will not work again."

 

He was right. The Seanchan learned quickly. Ituralde had been forced to cut short his raids in Tarabon because of the swift Seanchan reaction.

 

"You know you can't beat us," Turan said softly. "I see it in your eyes, Great Captain."

 

Ituralde nodded.

 

"Why, then?" Turan asked.

 

"Why does a crow fly?" Ituralde asked.

And even Turan's army alone would be enough to give Tuon the advantage in Caemlyn.

 

Last: Asha'man. = 300-350 at BT. We guessed over 700 at BT, over half (350+) sent to Arad Doman & Illian, of which 100 went to Ituralde, including all the bonded AS from Elaida's raid.

Maybe: AS embassies at the BT (16-53)

Tuon might be able to neutralize the channelers to an extent with forkroot, but beyond that, it's not clear that the Black Tower need necessarily be involved. We know from Tamyrlin that we won't see much of the Black Tower in this book, and I think it's quite possible that it will play out in a way that we do not expect.

 

Linda's guess at Seanchan numbers (with info from the books, of course), including soldiers from Altara, Tarabon, and Amadicia.

a) 100k local garrisons to protect against attacks (like Ituralde and Mat made)

b) 100k in northern Altara (guarding against Andoran and Murandian buildups) (KoD, under an Oak)

c) 300k+& 200 damane Ituralde's estimate of the new army coming after him.

d) 100k around Illian.

e) Plus smaller bands hunting Aiel (Shaido) and protecting the major cities. (50K).

----------

Say: 650K with no more coming (Seanchan in disarray + already recruited Tarabon, Altara, and Amadicia). And only around 300k + 200 damane not stationed elsewhere. If they see Rand abandoning Illian, that would free up that 100k.

I would disagree with this assessment based on the Turan quote.

 

There was that Egwene accepted test where the Shadow attacked Caemlyn and trollocs were gathering outside Caemlyn in EotW. Could be foreshadowing.

I think it's more likely foreshadowing of Rand's death than a Shadowspawn attack on Caemlyn. They can't move many by the Ways, so it's very unrealistic that they will attack there first, unless Demandred has been stockpiling them in Murandy.

 

The bottom line is, you don't attack enemies at their strong points without a very, very good reason, and I don't see a compelling reason to attack Andor at all.

Tuon is trying to Consolidate all of Randland under her rule. This is a very good reason to attack their strong points, and exactly why she attacked the strongest point of all - the White Tower.

 

Apparently, Perrin can also block the DO's effects on food. He isn't even aware of the increased rate at which food has been spoiling Randlandwide. It's a pretty good bet that Mat can also do that by now (he even parted the clouds, which Perrin can't do, as of yet). So, food shouldn't be a problem. Not in Caemlyn, at least.

It already isn't a problem - the food stopped spoiling in Caemlyn when Elayne rounded up her little nest of Darkfriends, and the High Seats who were close to Rahvin.

[Suttree]

It already isn't a problem - the food stopped spoiling in Caemlyn when Elayne rounded up her little nest of Darkfriends, and the High Seats who were close to Rahvin.

 

Could you shoot me were it says this in the books? Must have missed it the first time around and would like to read. Thanks!

 

Sutt

[Charlz Guybon]

'Elayne didn't realise the Kin could link to create gateways' thing

What are you talking about? The Kin were using those gateways to search for soldiers loyal to Elayne and here vassals as well to transport food into the city.

[Terez]

It already isn't a problem - the food stopped spoiling in Caemlyn when Elayne rounded up her little nest of Darkfriends, and the High Seats who were close to Rahvin.

 

Could you shoot me were it says this in the books? Must have missed it the first time around and would like to read. Thanks!

 

Sutt

 

Here you go:

 

TITLE - Knife of Dreams

CHAPTER: 35 - The Importance of Dyelin

 

At the end of the midday meal. Elayne brought up the intentions of Luan and the others with Birgitte. It was a wonderful meal, and she ate ravenously. Melfane had lambasted the cooks and every other woman in earshot for the bland diet they had been reeding her. Today there were small pond trout grilled to perfection, cabbage rolls stuffed with ctumbly white ewe’s milk cheese, broad beans with pinenuts, and a tangy apple tart. Another reason it was marvelous was that nothing had the faintest hint of spoiling. To drink, there was good black tea with mint that made her tense for a moment until she realized it really was mint. The only thing Melfane had forbidden was wine, however well watered. Birgitte had even given up drinking herself, though it seemed impossible it could have any effect through the bond. Elayne refrained from pointing that out. Birgitte had been drinking too much to dull the pain of losing her Gaidal. Elayne understood even if she did not approve. She could not imagine what she would do if Rand died.

LOL. I think I can count this as the fourth major foreshadowing (in mundane language) of Rand's resurrection. :D I have been finding them randomly...I need to hunt for them. I bet there is one with Aviendha - I've found two with Nynaeve and one with Min, and this one has Elayne.

[Luckers]

I think it is pretty common knowledge that Rand conquered Caemlyn and held it for a time. It's also pretty common knowledge that Elayne is his choice for the Sun Throne.

 

I'm less certain--we see that the Seanchan intelligence on the non-conquered has holes in the amount they don't know about Tar Valon.

 

Besides, if they know Rand conquered Caemlyn, they also know that he let it go, indicating a general lack of the possesive on his part--lacking knowledge that Rand and Elayne are in love, it would make it look even more like he doesn't care about Andor.

 

I don't think she will be forced to submit at all. She will be forced to change a few policies, that's for sure...but I believe the Empire is important, and that Mat's marriage to Tuon is also significant, and not for getting Tuon to bow.

 

There are some things in the histories that point at this, namely the fact that the common man worshiped Hawkwing...only the nobles resented him, even though they were given positions of power in his Empire sometimes. Tuon's policy is far more diplomatic than Hawkwing's was. She at least allows rulers to keep their lands, ruling them absolutely with the exception of answering to Tuon - a fair and wise ruler - and providing men to the Empire's armies. Which are largely used to keep the peace, which they are quite good at.

 

The only thing Rand was unwilling to concede was the Seanchan treatment of channelers, and as I said above, I think this is the main area where Tuon will be forced to bend. But the rulers of Randland will also be forced to bend a little, and I think that Mat's distaste for the over-prideful nature of the nobility might come into play in the ultimate bargain

 

I don't think we're as widely divergent on this as you think--when I speak of 'forced to submit' I'm talking about the fact that circumstance will force her to let go of her preconcieved notions of Tarmon Gai'don--that the Empire will fight the Shadow, and the Dragon will be the Empress weapon.

 

As result the resulting alliance that will be formed will be formed under Rand's ideas of how it will work, not Fortuona's, and in this Rand will have bound the Nine Moons to serve him. She will not submit in the sense that she will kneel to him, but in the sense that she will follow his lead in the fight against the Shadow--but for that to happen I think the Empire needs to take some heavy blows. It's confidence in its own ascendency--and by extension Fortuona's--needs to be rocked. I don't see the Empire falling, just... rethinking the realities of their situation.

 

But for that point there is the reverse--I don't see the freeing of damane or anything like that before TG. I think Fortuona will forego leashing new damane for the time being, as per Rand's request, but the Empire will not change over night. It'll just stop demanding others fall in step behind it.

 

What are you talking about? The Kin were using those gateways to search for soldiers loyal to Elayne and here vassals as well to transport food into the city.

 

It did not occur to Elayne that circles of the weaker kin could be used to create gateways until after she made her bargain with Zaida. If she had she wouldn't have made the Bargain if she'd realised (she actually states this quite clearly at one point, but I don't have the books on me).

[Crossroad]

So their is an assumption that Caemlyn will be a battle ground in TOM between the armies of Randland and the Seachan. Well thats and interesting Theory. Can't wait to see if thats on the cards.

[Terez]

I think it is pretty common knowledge that Rand conquered Caemlyn and held it for a time. It's also pretty common knowledge that Elayne is his choice for the Sun Throne.

 

I'm less certain--we see that the Seanchan intelligence on the non-conquered has holes in the amount they don't know about Tar Valon.

Perhaps, but it's hard to believe she won't learn as much from Elaida, if she hasn't already in some other way.

 

Besides, if they know Rand conquered Caemlyn, they also know that he let it go, indicating a general lack of the possesive on his part--lacking knowledge that Rand and Elayne are in love, it would make it look even more like he doesn't care about Andor.

That is why I mentioned his favoring of Elayne for the Sun Throne. Again, if no one else has told her, Elaida certainly will. And Beslan knows of Elayne's relationship with Mat, if not Elayne's relationship with Rand. I don't think Tuon has access to anyone who knows that.

 

I don't think we're as widely divergent on this as you think--when I speak of 'forced to submit' I'm talking about the fact that circumstance will force her to let go of her preconcieved notions of Tarmon Gai'don--that the Empire will fight the Shadow, and the Dragon will be the Empress weapon.

I'm not so sure about this, either. I think Rand's death might play well into Tuon's notions of how the Last Battle will go, most especially if Mat manages to call Rand with the Horn. But she can probably use the Horn as a rallying point either way, after they fetch it from the Tower while saving Egwene. ;) I suspect the actual use of the Horn will mirror the tomb in the Jesus stories.

 

As result the resulting alliance that will be formed will be formed under Rand's ideas of how it will work, not Fortuona's, and in this Rand will have bound the Nine Moons to serve him.

I think that Rand will be dead, and his ideas won't have much to do with it. I expect that most of the haggling will be between Mat and Tuon, probably with Egwene and Elayne involved as well.

 

She will not submit in the sense that she will kneel to him, but in the sense that she will follow his lead in the fight against the Shadow--but for that to happen I think the Empire needs to take some heavy blows. It's confidence in its own ascendency--and by extension Fortuona's--needs to be rocked. I don't see the Empire falling, just... rethinking the realities of their situation.

I think the realities of their situation are that they have the upper hand in terms of military, and until the Battle of Caemlyn, Tuon will have the mindset that the Dragon Reborn needs to be contained. He's dangerous and evil. By the time she has a chance to reconsider, he will be dead, and her ideas of her own importance will be, if anything, magnified.

 

But for that point there is the reverse--I don't see the freeing of damane or anything like that before TG. I think Fortuona will forego leashing new damane for the time being, as per Rand's request, but the Empire will not change over night. It'll just stop demanding others fall in step behind it.

This is where the binding comes in. She can't free all of the damane overnight, but she can promise to do so in return for acceptance of her leadership, and Egwene will probably demand that she give her promise by the Oath Rod. In this way, she makes the sacrifice that is necessary for the two to be 'as one', and serves Rand.

[Luckers]

Perhaps, but it's hard to believe she won't learn as much from Elaida, if she hasn't already in some other way.

 

I think the geo-politics of Andor and Cairhein are long down on the list of questions she will have for the new damane.

 

That is why I mentioned his favoring of Elayne for the Sun Throne. Again, if no one else has told her, Elaida certainly will. And Beslan knows of Elayne's relationship with Mat, if not Elayne's relationship with Rand. I don't think Tuon has access to anyone who knows that.

 

Does Elaida even know of that? I mean the Cairhienin nobility do, and Elayne was informed directly, but do we have evidence that shows that the rumours would have reached Elaida?

 

Even if they did, I doubt it would come up with Fortuona.

 

I'm not so sure about this, either. I think Rand's death might play well into Tuon's notions of how the Last Battle will go, most especially if Mat manages to call Rand with the Horn. But she can probably use the Horn as a rallying point either way, after they fetch it from the Tower while saving Egwene. ;) I suspect the actual use of the Horn will mirror the tomb in the Jesus stories.

 

Obviously we have divergent thoughts on Rand's death, though I will say that I can see why the death of the Dragon would strike a blow against Fortuona's assumption that the Empire's victory over the Light is assured.

[Terez]

Perhaps, but it's hard to believe she won't learn as much from Elaida, if she hasn't already in some other way.

 

I think the geo-politics of Andor and Cairhein are long down on the list of questions she will have for the new damane.

There are some questions that are more important, but I think this one will be pretty high up the list, since Tuon is most interested in finding Mat, and also conquering Rand's lands. She will want to know how to strike.

 

That is why I mentioned his favoring of Elayne for the Sun Throne. Again, if no one else has told her, Elaida certainly will. And Beslan knows of Elayne's relationship with Mat, if not Elayne's relationship with Rand. I don't think Tuon has access to anyone who knows that.

 

Does Elaida even know of that? I mean the Cairhienin nobility do, and Elayne was informed directly, but do we have evidence that shows that the rumours would have reached Elaida?

All of the Cairhienin nobility were coached by Aes Sedai in the Dumai's Wells party, and in the prologue of ACOS, Elaida mentions her plans for Caraline Damodred. It's difficult to believe that Elaida would know nothing of Colavaere, and the Elayne business is public.

 

I'm not so sure about this, either. I think Rand's death might play well into Tuon's notions of how the Last Battle will go, most especially if Mat manages to call Rand with the Horn. But she can probably use the Horn as a rallying point either way, after they fetch it from the Tower while saving Egwene. ;) I suspect the actual use of the Horn will mirror the tomb in the Jesus stories.

 

Obviously we have divergent thoughts on Rand's death, though I will say that I can see why the death of the Dragon would strike a blow against Fortuona's assumption that the Empire's victory over the Light is assured.

It will strike a blow against everyone's assumption that the Light will be victorious. That's exactly why Tuon's beliefs are important - they need something to hold them together when all hope is lost.

[Jim Millen]

 

A mainland Seanchan assault is unlikely unless Demandred has gotten involved and taught the damane Travel (using BA minions perhaps).

Fortunately, they have Elaida to teach it to them.

 

 

This has been bugging me for a couple of reasons. I'm also away from the books so can't look things up - so it's quite possible I'm talking nonsense! But anyway. First off, even with the coercion possible through the a'dam it will probably take a little time for Elaida (Or any other captured AS who know Travelling) to break enough to reveal it. Maybe only a few days, but still a delay.

 

Second, is there any evidence of the Seanchan routinely learning weaves from captured AS, windfinders or anybody else? I remember references that they recognised the Talent that Egwene had (for metals?) but think that's quite different from a specific weave. Wouldn't the damane have to lead the weave directly to demonstrate this, and surely that would be forbidden?

 

The final part of it all is strength in gateways. Even assuming Elaida tells the Seanchan about Travelling overnight, and they somehow immediately pass this on to all the other sul'dam - they cannot link! So only the strongest of damane will be able to make gateways big enough for entire armies. Without linking in circles or angreal, I'm not sure they'll be able to make as much use of gateways as the AS, Kin etc...

[waffle]

Second, is there any evidence of the Seanchan routinely learning weaves from captured AS, windfinders or anybody else?

 

The Seanchan learned healing from captured AS

 

Elayne was sort of waffling

 

Don´t tell Rand. He will kill me.

[Luckers]

The final part of it all is strength in gateways. Even assuming Elaida tells the Seanchan about Travelling overnight, and they somehow immediately pass this on to all the other sul'dam - they cannot link! So only the strongest of damane will be able to make gateways big enough for entire armies. Without linking in circles or angreal, I'm not sure they'll be able to make as much use of gateways as the AS, Kin etc...

 

This aspect of the issue did not occur to me. I'm sure they have enough damane of significant strength to make it a somewhat effective tool, but still, this limitation is a good catch.

 

 

Terez, on 21 October 2010 - 04:38 AM, said:

 

Elayne was sort of waffling

 

 

 

Don´t tell Rand. He will kill me.

 

This made me laugh.

[Terez]

This has been bugging me for a couple of reasons. I'm also away from the books so can't look things up - so it's quite possible I'm talking nonsense! But anyway. First off, even with the coercion possible through the a'dam it will probably take a little time for Elaida (Or any other captured AS who know Travelling) to break enough to reveal it. Maybe only a few days, but still a delay.

Probably not all that long with Tuon. She is better at getting damane to do what she wants them to do than most. She basically channels herself through the link, from what we saw with the scene in 'A Short Path'.

 

The final part of it all is strength in gateways. Even assuming Elaida tells the Seanchan about Travelling overnight, and they somehow immediately pass this on to all the other sul'dam - they cannot link! So only the strongest of damane will be able to make gateways big enough for entire armies. Without linking in circles or angreal, I'm not sure they'll be able to make as much use of gateways as the AS, Kin etc...

 

This aspect of the issue did not occur to me. I'm sure they have enough damane of significant strength to make it a somewhat effective tool, but still, this limitation is a good catch.

Rand attacked Illian with 24,000 men using only one gateway, four paces by four. He had to do it that way so he could take all the Asha'man in at once to trigger the wards all around the city.

[Crael123]

@Terez what parallels does Mat have with Judas?? Judas BETRAYED Jesus. We have all seen countless numbers of details about how loyal Mat and Rand are to eachother and Egwene. Well... maybe that they are loyal to everybody from Two Rivers at least

 

Unless you are suggesting he does it accidentally that i could believe

[Terez]

@Terez what parallels does Mat have with Judas?? Judas BETRAYED Jesus. We have all seen countless numbers of details about how loyal Mat and Rand are to eachother and Egwene. Well... maybe that they are loyal to everybody from Two Rivers at least

 

Unless you are suggesting he does it accidentally that i could believe

Yes, of course Mat wouldn't consciously betray Rand, but it seems to have been a prominent feature in his Portal Stone trip. Linda at 13th Depository noted that he has a parallel just via having been hanged. As I said in the Gawyn theory:

 

Judas sold his knowledge of Jesus' whereabouts, identifying him with a kiss, for a price of thirty pieces of silver, and this led to Jesus' death. After Jesus was arrested, Judas gave the silver away (by throwing it at the priests in the Temple) and then he hanged himself on a tree. Mat got the silver medallion in Eelfland. The price: he was hanged 'for knowledge' on a tree, but he was saved from death by a 'kiss' from Rand (CPR), and he will accidentally betray Rand by giving that piece of silver away, which will lead to Rand's death at Gawyn's hands.

That's not even taking into account the wager Mat made with Rahvin - in Tallanvor's hearing - that makes little sense. He gave the stakes to Gill to watch. Mat's discovery led to Tallanvor and Gill teaming up, and Morgase escaping from Rahvin, and it also led to the rumors of her death. Mat also delivered the news of Morgase's 'death' in Cairhien, which was what led to Moiraine's confrontation with Lanfear, and also what led to Rand killing Rahvin and thereby connecting his own name to her 'death'. The medallion is a parallel to the girdle of Gawain and the Green Man, I think (an item worn underneath the clothing, touching the skin, that protects the wearer from attacks). Gawyn kills Rand, or at least plays a part in killing Rand, and Mat is indirectly culpable. Also, big chance for Moiraine to play a part in Rand's death, and Mat is behind that as well. If Moiraine is involved, I expect it to be to balefire Rand after Gawyn mortally wounds him, to ensure that the Shadow cannot touch his soul, and Mat will probably be with her. Incidentally, Rand has saved Mat's life with balefire twice, and Rand's first use of balefire is what drove Moiraine to swear to obey him so that he would listen to her advice.

[GB]

I seriously doubt gawyn will kill rand, no matter how much i dont like gawyn for being single minded, it just wouldnt make sense. Rand knows Morgase is alive, Gawyn is in the tower, probably he will try to do something to rand (or might keep his word to egwene and not anything), but if rand tells egwene to tell gawyn morgase is alive (since gawyn probably wont come see him even if Rand asks), and proof can be obtained by the simple thing of going to perrin's camp and getting morgase.

[gambril]

I'm not really grasping why people refuse to believe that the Seanchan won't attack Caemlyn. Do you think the Seanchan gaining Traveling wasn't for a reason? The Seanchan needed Traveling so they could attack Caemlyn.

 

We've already seen what the shadow's forces are up to with the beginning of the invasion of the borderlands in the prologue. We also know that Iturlade sees a lot of action in this book and where is he? He's in the borderlands guarding against Trollocs and such. So obviously the main military focus of the shadow's forces is overwhelming the borderlands and hopefully destroying the White Tower from there.

 

As for the argument that you don't strike where your enemy is strongest, really? What happened at the end of TGS? The Seanchan attacked the White Tower, considered to be the bastion of strength in Randland. Also if you will recall, during the meeting with her Generals, Yulan the air commander guy I think it was had two maps and battle plans but we were only given information on the attack on the White Tower. The other attack plan the Seanchan have was suspicously kept secret...for now. As also has been mentioned, Rand expects them to attack Illian so obviously that's not what they're going to do. Tuon knows Mat thinks all the evidence points to them attacking Illian as well and she won't attack Illian for this reason alone, not to mention Illian is totally un-important...nobodies there and nobody would care if they attacked Illian. The last thing about this, which Terez mentioned is Tuon wants Mat back and she has enough evidence to believe that she will find him in Caemlyn.

 

Knowing all this brings up a bunch of interesting questions to me like....we know Mat's going to Ghenjei so will he be there for the attack? His thoughts in his spoiler chapter about being relieved that there was a battle that he wasn't there for indicate he will be there for the next one. My suspicion and I would love to hear others theories, but mine is he will arrive right as the battle starts after returning from Ghenjei or somewhere close. At least in time to be there and make a contribution/difference. I can't wait to see Mat's Band fight Tuon's armies. Will we get to see Mat's canons in action here? Is there enough time for at least a few to be produced?

 

I've also seen it mentioned and find it very credible about Mat and Tuon being the ones to go rescue Egwene (this is Mat's modus operandi after all *snicker*) and retrieve the Horn Of Valere, but my question is how this can even fit in TOM? I would assume the cliffhanger ending of TOM will be Team Light in disarray with Rand assumed dead by most and hopefully the beginning of the north/south/east/west becoming one. Anyways, what I'm trying to say is..so there's a battle blah blah blah...Mat and Tuon get together go rescue Egwene snag the Horn and all this is going to happen after the big battle of Caemlyn and still be in TOM?

 

*Edit - Is it silly of me that one of the things I look most forward to is the revelation to Tuon that Mat is the hornblower? If Mat thought she hit him hard in the ribs when she found out he was a military genious, how hard is she going to knock him on the head when she learns this? Lawls! The way Tuon says that securing whomever blew the Horn is important as the Dragon makes me think that there are revelations about the Horn in the Essanik cycle that we're not aware of...yet :).

[Jim Millen]

I don't especially like the idea of the Seanchan mounting an attack on Caemlyn... Mainly just because it feels like everything's rolling along nicely towards the Last Battle and the forces on the "good" side are still fighting amongst themselves? I just want them to get over it, work out some sort of alliance and move on. Stop wasting time and focus on the Dark One already!

 

What I could envisage is some sort of stand-off between the Seanchan & everyone else, maybe just outside Caemlyn, which is interrupted by some strike from the shadow. Tuon & Mat facilitate a truce to see off the shadowspawn, in the process of which Tuon for some plot-convenient reason is forced to channel & suddenly rethinks the whole a'dam approach.

 

Pretty cliched, perhaps, but I'd much prefer this to yet another battle between Randlanders and Seanchan. We've had plenty already, there's no need for any more!

 

Oh, and completely agree about Tuon's reaction to finding out about Mat and the Horn. Should be priceless...

[Rcurran]

Tuon doing a large scale mobilisation, moving over half a million people ... Integrating a new technology, travelling, into her armies...

 

I have not read all Terez has to say fully yet, will look into it, but I can't see a full on battle occurring.

 

It just goes against everything I know about warfare. Besides the fact I'd estimate that Tuon probably needs something like 1 soldier for every x population of each captured territory to maintain control. Plus logistically they need x population under control to feed 1 soldier plus time and work to prepare and transport food etc.

[Terez]

I seriously doubt gawyn will kill rand, no matter how much i dont like gawyn for being single minded, it just wouldnt make sense. Rand knows Morgase is alive, Gawyn is in the tower, probably he will try to do something to rand (or might keep his word to egwene and not anything), but if rand tells egwene to tell gawyn morgase is alive (since gawyn probably wont come see him even if Rand asks), and proof can be obtained by the simple thing of going to perrin's camp and getting morgase.

That's assuming that 1) Perrin is still in the same place (which is unlikely), 2) Rand has any idea where Perrin is, 3) Morgase is still with Perrin. Gawyn sure as hell isn't going to take his word for it.

 

I doubt their confrontation will be in Tar Valon; I expect Egwene to send Gawyn away. She dreams of Rand confronting her and other women, but no men.

[GB]

I seriously doubt gawyn will kill rand, no matter how much i dont like gawyn for being single minded, it just wouldnt make sense. Rand knows Morgase is alive, Gawyn is in the tower, probably he will try to do something to rand (or might keep his word to egwene and not anything), but if rand tells egwene to tell gawyn morgase is alive (since gawyn probably wont come see him even if Rand asks), and proof can be obtained by the simple thing of going to perrin's camp and getting morgase.

That's assuming that 1) Perrin is still in the same place (which is unlikely), 2) Rand has any idea where Perrin is, 3) Morgase is still with Perrin. Gawyn sure as hell isn't going to take his word for it.

 

I doubt their confrontation will be in Tar Valon; I expect Egwene to send Gawyn away. She dreams of Rand confronting her and other women, but no men.

 

if rand thinks of perrin he would see where he is and might recognise where perrin is.

 

but say egwene sends gawyn away to assume his duty in andor of first prince.

 

then morgase who is travelling with perrin will eventually end up in camelyn as well, since she would obviously want to see elayne as queen.

[ajfurst]

Rand attacked Illian with 24,000 men using only one gateway, four paces by four. He had to do it that way so he could take all the Asha'man in at once to trigger the wards all around the city.

The tactics of which were put together by two Great Captain's and the Saldaean's trained for weeks at.

Travelling, as far as we've been told, isn't one of the weaves that men or women are better at if the same strength (such as making a bridge with Air). So the Seanchan are going to be operating more as a lot of smaller gateways rather then pouring a large force through one. Somewhat moot though.

 

The Light vs. the Shadow, or the 'Good Light' versus the Seanchan in Caemlyn. I have a feeling whatever goes down won't be so clear cut. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 3 way battle either

- the Seanchan vs. 'The good guys', with the Shadow falling upon them from behind whilst they fight, forcing the Seanchan to side with marath'damane to fight Shadowspawn. Pushing Fortuona to make the same revelations that Tylee already has, that the enemy she thinks is her enemy doesn't have to be.

 

or the Shadow attacks Caemlyn before the Seanchan arrive, with them on the brink of going under when they arrive, and the Seanchan also taking heavy casualties. Enough that the two sides must work together quickly or both will be overrun.

 

At least whatever goes down it's not going to be as clear cut as two sides 'neatly' fighting. Something or multiple somethings are going to throw spanners in the works as it goes down (if it does in TOM).

[maradon]

As mentioned before in this thread it will be next to impossible for the shadow to get enough trollocs to caemlyn to mount an assault as the nearest waygates are warded so they would have to go by land, which would get noticed. Also in Jasons review (I think) he says that the light will be ready for the last battle, but will be disjointed and massively underprepared. For this to come to fruition a battle at caemlyn would have to be between the Seanchan and 'Good' guys, with our guys gaining something of a close victory. The Shadow, at the moment, don't need to mount any special flanking attacks, they could literally flood out of the blight and take the borderlands in a few weeks, comfortably I might add.

[mossman87]

As mentioned before in this thread it will be next to impossible for the shadow to get enough trollocs to caemlyn to mount an assault as the nearest waygates are warded so they would have to go by land, which would get noticed. Also in Jasons review (I think) he says that the light will be ready for the last battle, but will be disjointed and massively underprepared. For this to come to fruition a battle at caemlyn would have to be between the Seanchan and 'Good' guys, with our guys gaining something of a close victory. The Shadow, at the moment, don't need to mount any special flanking attacks, they could literally flood out of the blight and take the borderlands in a few weeks, comfortably I might add.

 

I see it going like this: Battle at Caemlyn with Rand's forces, or Elayne's whoever you know what I mean, vs the Seanchan forces. Somehow Rand will die in the end of the book, the Light's shattered on both sides and now the storm from the north is descending on Caemlyn. I don't think we'll see any Shadow battles much this book besides in the Borderlands (which they'll be many, even if we don't see them imo). I feel they'll hit Caemlyn at the very, very end of the book or starting right off in AMoL, it definitely makes it look like they're in an awful situation, which fits all the reviews. We also have Murandy's mystery army, and the Black Tower Darkfriends, and all kinds of ideas. There's lots of fighting that can go around in the last book, but this is how I envision the end of ToM. I'm sure some truce will happen at the end too, but with the Dragon dead and the Light's forces shattered from fighting eachother, and then 'oh shit' here comes the Dark at the very end. Sorry for rambling, long day.