Military Roundup

[Blackhoof]

Personally i think that there are a lot more Trollocs and dreadlords and darkfriends than anyone thinks. judging from previous percentages of darkfriends, at least 1/20 of the worlds population are darkfriends. The worlds population today is 6 billion, thats 300 million dfs, and even though the population of randland is much smaller, that is still hundreds of thousands to millions of darkfriends.

 

Most will be civilians, but they will all either be pressed into the military and given rudimentary weapons, or used as spies and assassins. either way they add to the trollocs numbers and will be effective with the whole weight of numbers thing.

 

I dont think the DO can disable the OP, and i think the whole saidar-fail thing is actually just the DO making the food spoil despite saidar being there, not him making the power fail.

 

If anything he will use his powers as weapons, like warping whole regiments out of existence and stuff. Also i think hordes of huge mutants will join the trollocs, likw worms, Bloodwrasps and assorted warped, mutants monstrosities.

[Random Man]

RJ stated in some interview that the DO had access to a rediculous amount of trollocs, and that the female ones stay in the blight all the time to be used for breeding.

 

Also, it's been mentioned that there are creatures in the blight that can't be controlled by any save the DO, and in TG the DO is going to throw everything he's got into it

 

IIRC, the quote was "an order of magnitude" more Trollocs than could be supported by the Blight.

 

I hope we'll see some Worm action in addition to whatever scares Worms. Maybe it's the Woodland Critters.

robins scare worms

Please don't tell me you totally ignored a nod to your signature  ;D

[Lacanos]

I think you've got some serious under-estimates here:

 

Firstly, on the topic of the Borderlands - I'd say 600k is an absolute minimum - Saldaea is the largest of the borderlands and probably the joint largest nation with Andor. I'd say it alone should be able to martial 200k with all men fighting - it's mentioned that farmers etc are moving north. Kandor/Arafel half that each, if not a little more, so call them 250k together, and Shienar somewhere between, so 150k-175k. That's 600k.

 

The Aiel, I think you similarly underestimate rather severely. We know from TWOTWOT that the 4 clans in the "Aiel War" had roughly 80k troops deployed, and that was roughly half those clans if not less - many stayed behind, farmers and craftsmen etc took no part. There are 13 clans, so excluding the Shaido and any losses suffered, I think it's fair to say that they'll be able to deploy at least 700k. With the bleakness etc factored in, round it off at 600k again.

 

Those two are probably the most powerful militaries in the Westlands - and are rather better equipped/more skilled than other organisations.

 

On the number of Aiel channelers that turn to the Dark, it is mentioned that a very very low number of Aiel generally do, much lower than in the "wetlands". Give them 1/10th or less. Similarly with the Seanchan, a PoV from Suroth in 11? (when discussing Liandrin) says that a very small number of Sul'dam do, so again 1/10th.

 

The Legion of the Dragon is *supposed* to be pushing closer to 100k.

 

I do think you overestimate Cairhein, give it 100k at most. I doubt it could fight off Murandy at the moment.

 

The Seanchan I agree with, an absolute minimum of 1m, probably more seeing as they have the armies of Tarabon, Amador and Altara at their disposal (unified as never before). They also have roughly half the Children, so 7k more.

 

Murandy will be pushing 150k at least - sudden unification etc will have helped this greatly.

 

 

As for how I think the Dark will match the light - it'll be weight of numbers. Remember, they could afford to waste a few hundred thousand trollocs on rand.

 

PLUS: This battle is not being fought how al'Thor thinks from Verin. It won't simply be a momentous battle cumulating in a winner.

[Luckers]

Quote from: Luckers on May 09, 2010, 09:03:44 PM

Armed Forces

 

Wise Ones - Based on the Shaido, 5500. Lets be extremely kind and give a third to the Shadow. 1875 Dark and 3625 light

 

 

 

Too kind. Come on....

 

AS had like 1/7

 

I say WO are 1/55 100 total. Not all can channel

 

I did not count those who cannot channel. The 5,500 are the Channeling Wise Ones. The total number of Wise Ones is undoubtedly much higher.

 

Giving 1/3 of them from Aiel and Sea Folk is ridiculously generous. They are far more (internally) cohesive societies than in the Westlands, and the Shadow cannot have spent nearly as much effort infiltrating them as it has with the conventional Westland nations. And why should they? The Sea Folk are utterly peripheral to the Shadow's interests. The Aiel shouldn't have been a problem either, except for the fact that the Dragon led them over the Dragonwall. No, the Light has an absolutely dominant advantage here, I'm pretty certain.

 

RJ disagreed with you, and went on record to state it.

 

Besides, what makes you so certain the Shadow ignored either organisation? Darkfriends exist in both societies--which we know as fact. We have seen both Darkfriend Aiel and Darkfriend Sea Folk. As such the Shadow would be aware of vast numbers of channelers in both cultures. Why on earth would the Shadow ignore them? That'd be just plain supid.

 

Firstly, on the topic of the Borderlands - I'd say 600k is an absolute minimum - Saldaea is the largest of the borderlands and probably the joint largest nation with Andor. I'd say it alone should be able to martial 200k with all men fighting - it's mentioned that farmers etc are moving north. Kandor/Arafel half that each, if not a little more, so call them 250k together, and Shienar somewhere between, so 150k-175k. That's 600k.

 

Firstly, Andor is the strongest nation in the Westlands, not the joint strongest. This establishes an upper limit for any of the Borderlands. Additionally the Borderland nations have maintained a state of constant warfare with the Blight and the Shadow, which will have caused attrition.

 

Indeed, it must be fairly significant attrition at that--look at what Shienar was able to marshel in The Eye of the World, and that under one of the Great Captains.

 

I doubt any of the Borderlands could marshall 150,000 alone. I suspect, based on Shienar, it is less. That being said they are veterans, and the general populace are all trained in fighting to one degree or another, and are gathering.

 

The Aiel, I think you similarly underestimate rather severely. We know from TWOTWOT that the 4 clans in the "Aiel War" had roughly 80k troops deployed, and that was roughly half those clans if not less - many stayed behind, farmers and craftsmen etc took no part. There are 13 clans, so excluding the Shaido and any losses suffered, I think it's fair to say that they'll be able to deploy at least 700k. With the bleakness etc factored in, round it off at 600k again.

 

No. The Aiel's numbers are set in stone by Mat's count in tFoH. If anything they should be less than stated, as it is said that whilst Rand was captive in LoC the Bleakness returned in force.

 

On the number of Aiel channelers that turn to the Dark, it is mentioned that a very very low number of Aiel generally do, much lower than in the "wetlands". Give them 1/10th or less. Similarly with the Seanchan, a PoV from Suroth in 11? (when discussing Liandrin) says that a very small number of Sul'dam do, so again 1/10th

 

Actually it is never mentioned that a very low number of Aiel become Darkfriends. We have only encountered a few Aiel Darkfriend--Melindhra and the couple of dozen that attacked Mat in LoC--but that doesn't mean there are not many more.

 

The Legion of the Dragon is *supposed* to be pushing closer to 100k.

 

The Legion of the Dragon were last mentioned in tPoD, with 15,000 trained and 15,000 in training. I've no doubt that's increased, which is why I put them in for double that statement, but where you get this 'supposed' bulldiddy I do not know.

 

 

[Lacanos]

Firstly, on the topic of the Borderlands - I'd say 600k is an absolute minimum - Saldaea is the largest of the borderlands and probably the joint largest nation with Andor. I'd say it alone should be able to martial 200k with all men fighting - it's mentioned that farmers etc are moving north. Kandor/Arafel half that each, if not a little more, so call them 250k together, and Shienar somewhere between, so 150k-175k. That's 600k.

 

Firstly, Andor is the strongest nation in the Westlands, not the joint strongest. This establishes an upper limit for any of the Borderlands. Additionally the Borderland nations have maintained a state of constant warfare with the Blight and the Shadow, which will have caused attrition.

 

Indeed, it must be fairly significant attrition at that--look at what Shienar was able to marshal in The Eye of the World, and that under one of the Great Captains.

 

I doubt any of the Borderlands could marshal 150,000 alone. I suspect, based on Shienar, it is less. That being said they are veterans, and the general populace are all trained in fighting to one degree or another, and are gathering.

It is stated in TWOTWOT that Saldaea is the second largest country in landmass. Furthermore, this quote you mention - does it refer to possible deployment strength with Andor being the most powerful, or just combining andor being the most powerful in a general sense with Elayne's quotes from 11? If the latter, I suspect Saldaea has a rather larger core to call upon of people willing & able to fight. There is very little doubt in my mind that the Borderlands can match the Aiel in numbers.

Shienar in TEOTW was calling troops from one specific area etc. It's littered with fortresses such as Fal Dara as is stated in both EOTW and TWOTWOT.

 

The Aiel, I think you similarly underestimate rather severely. We know from TWOTWOT that the 4 clans in the "Aiel War" had roughly 80k troops deployed, and that was roughly half those clans if not less - many stayed behind, farmers and craftsmen etc took no part. There are 13 clans, so excluding the Shaido and any losses suffered, I think it's fair to say that they'll be able to deploy at least 700k. With the bleakness etc factored in, round it off at 600k again.

 

No. The Aiel's numbers are set in stone by Mat's count in tFoH. If anything they should be less than stated, as it is said that whilst Rand was captive in LoC the Bleakness returned in force.

Can you provide this quote from Mat please so I can evaluate it. Can we be sure of his accuracy?

 

On the number of Aiel channelers that turn to the Dark, it is mentioned that a very very low number of Aiel generally do, much lower than in the "wetlands". Give them 1/10th or less. Similarly with the Seanchan, a PoV from Suroth in 11? (when discussing Liandrin) says that a very small number of Sul'dam do, so again 1/10th

 

Actually it is never mentioned that a very low number of Aiel become Darkfriends. We have only encountered a few Aiel Darkfriend--Melindhra and the couple of dozen that attacked Mat in LoC--but that doesn't mean there are not many more.

It is mentioned in 5 I believe that darkfriends among the Aiel are uncommon (or more so than in the wetlands). There's nothing from TWOTWOT unfortunately, just skimmed through it.

 

The Legion of the Dragon is *supposed* to be pushing closer to 100k.

 

The Legion of the Dragon were last mentioned in tPoD, with 15,000 trained and 15,000 in training. I've no doubt that's increased, which is why I put them in for double that statement, but where you get this 'supposed' bulldiddy I do not know.

 

 

pretty sure Bashere said so in one of the more recent books, but I'll have to get back to you on that - am mid-re-read, on 6 atm.

 

Just an interesting fact that TWOTWOT mentions - battles in Hawkwing's time with armies of 200k+ on each side were quite common, and in the trolloc wars 300k+. Obviously there's been population decreases, but on that scale? Technology-wise, we're in about the 1500s atm, and in the reign of Henry VIII in England the population was 2.8m, by Eliz the first 4.2m - that spans 80 years. Obviously this decrease has been at a much greater scale than I realised.

[Luckers]

It is stated in TWOTWOT that Saldaea is the second largest country in landmass.

 

Irrelevant. The largest area in landmass is the Caralain Grass, and it in no one numbers humans in the hundreds of thousands.

 

Furthermore, this quote you mention - does it refer to possible deployment strength with Andor being the most powerful, or just combining andor being the most powerful in a general sense with Elayne's quotes from 11? If the latter, I suspect Saldaea has a rather larger core to call upon of people willing & able to fight. There is very little doubt in my mind that the Borderlands can match the Aiel in numbers.

 

It is the former.

 

Shienar in TEOTW was calling troops from one specific area etc. It's littered with fortresses such as Fal Dara as is stated in both EOTW and TWOTWOT.

 

Incorrect. Agelmar summoned all the forces Shienar had to offer, and called on Arafel and Kandor as well, though they would not come.

 

Can you provide this quote from Mat please so I can evaluate it. Can we be sure of his accuracy?

 

It's in tFoH; 42, Before the Arrow. Rand's seven clans had around 320,000 and were joined by the other four clans afterwards. Mathematically thats 502,000 spears. Throw in losses during the battle of Cairhein and losses to the bleakness that will have declined. Hence my range--400,000 to 500,000.

 

And yes, we can trust his accuracy. Lan listens and agrees absolutely with his disection of the situation, and by Rand's inference Mat's numbers do not differ from the Clan Chiefs.

 

It is mentioned in 5 I believe that darkfriends among the Aiel are uncommon (or more so than in the wetlands). There's nothing from TWOTWOT unfortunately, just skimmed through it.

 

I do not recall this. Find a citation and come back to me. Be warned, my likely response will be to direct you to the fact that whoever made such a claim has no basis to know anything about Darkfriend Aiel--we have no POV's from Darkfriend Aiel, and none of the Forsaken have considered the number of Darkfriend Aiel.

 

But, frankly, I doubt this comment. My guess is that what you are recalling are the comments about Darkfriends amongst the Seanchan, the only time other than the Aes Sedai that it has been stated by a culture that Darkfriends are rare within their own number. In any case I know for a fact no Aiel has commented on the number of Shadowrunners they find, therefore if this quote of yours exists it will come from a Wetlander, who has less reason to know than anyone.

 

pretty sure Bashere said so in one of the more recent books, but I'll have to get back to you on that - am mid-re-read, on 6 atm.

 

He did not.

 

I'm sorry if I seem short Lacanos. I did not throw these numbers out willy-nilly, and yet invariably people respond with absolute certainty based on what they think they remember. It's frustrating.

 

 

[Red Hand Man]

Has anyone speculated (not theorized... no evidence I imagine) on the possibility of 50% or more of the Aiel being DFs?

[Luckers]

Talk to GrandpaG. He'll rant your socks off on the subject.

[CUBAREY]

The worlds population today is 6 billion, thats 300 million dfs, and even though the population of randland is much smaller, that is still hundreds of thousands to millions of darkfriends.

 

Just consider your statement. You are saying that if the percentages stayed the same there would be 300 million committed Satanists in our time! The reality that there only a miniscule fraction of this number today (person overtly and consciously commited to evil) and the same would hold true in Randland.

[Lacanos]

One more quick niggle Luckers, don't have time to go through that, but will try to get back to you with citations when possible.

The Aiel this side of Dragonmount number 500k, I'll concede that then. But there's still a huge number yet to cross - the carpenters etc, and I'd imagine a fair number of soldiers yes?

[metaphor]

Very interesting thread.

But you have forgotten the wolves  ;D

 

Although I admit it's difficult to make an estimate of their numbers. 10.000? 20.000? 30.000?

And there are the darkhouds too.

 

And, like others have said I think the borderlanders will give a greater number of fighters than in your estimate.

 

Well, you have made a precise calculation based on what we know for sure, but I'd like to speculate a bit on what we might find in the next 2 books.

 

 

A standing army  has huge  costs and expenses, and the borderlanders aren't among the richest nations. Furthermore, they don't really risk an attack from southern nations, nor from each other, and trolloc raids are usually small, where a few thousands would be considered a huge party.Thus the  Borderlands don't even need to have a huge standing army.  But in case of necessity they have access to a great reserve force, often composed of people with a military training as good, or even better, as most southerner regular soldiers. I wouldn't be surprised if they could double or even triple their army on short call.

Then there are the spontaneous fighters, who might end up following Lan.

In TGS prologue we saw that people could be convinced to fight just by talking with someone else for some minutes. Under those conditions the number of those could be enormous, in the millions even. Although not all of them would be fighters it could still make for an army greater than the 50.000 you estimated. Maybe even in the hundreds of thousands.

All in all I wouldn't be surprised if the total number of fighters from the borderlands will be superior to 2 millions, or even 3.

This obviously will create huge logistic problems, maybe it'll even cause more harm than good, and  cause the economies of the Borderlands to collapse,  or get dangerously close to it.

 

 

Obviously Rand will have the honor to solve those problems  ;D

 

One more quick niggle Luckers, don't have time to go through that, but will try to get back to you with citations when possible.

The Aiel this side of Dragonmount number 500k, I'll concede that then. But there's still a huge number yet to cross - the carpenters etc, and I'd imagine a fair number of soldiers yes?

 

I think the number of soldiers is quite clear.

But with the Aiel, any person able  to will pick up a spear-with the exception of the blacksmiths.

This doesn't mean that they will  march along the others to fight, but that if trollocs attack close to their encampments they will find  a larger army than expected.

[Shaidar]

@Luckers,

 

Giving 1/3 of them from Aiel and Sea Folk is ridiculously generous. They are far more (internally) cohesive societies than in the Westlands, and the Shadow cannot have spent nearly as much effort infiltrating them as it has with the conventional Westland nations. And why should they? The Sea Folk are utterly peripheral to the Shadow's interests. The Aiel shouldn't have been a problem either, except for the fact that the Dragon led them over the Dragonwall. No, the Light has an absolutely dominant advantage here, I'm pretty certain.

 

RJ disagreed with you, and went on record to state it.

 

Besides, what makes you so certain the Shadow ignored either organisation? Darkfriends exist in both societies--which we know as fact. We have seen both Darkfriend Aiel and Darkfriend Sea Folk. As such the Shadow would be aware of vast numbers of channelers in both cultures. Why on earth would the Shadow ignore them? That'd be just plain supid.

 

Are you speaking of RJ's quite that the Light is on the ropes and losing in a bad way? That doesn't prove the Light doesn't have many more channelers than the Shadow. If the Shadow has tens of millions of Trollocs (an order of magnitude more than the Blight can support - BS), then odds swing against the Light. Likewise if DO pulls out some of the "nasty tricks" I suggested in my original post.

 

I've never said the Shadow ignores Aiel and Sea Folk. I'm looking at things logically. The Westlands are the Shadow's target and will bear the brunt of the assault. Thus, it would be rational on their part to focus all your active efforts on infiltrating the Westlands - as indeed we know the Forsaken all did, the sole exception being Semirhage. Now if a few Wise Ones or Windmistresses join the cause, great, if not, no big loss.

[Crael123]

well i think the last battle even without the DO in the mix will be very even. the light is not united AT ALL. the two major factions, rand and the seanchan, currently are attempting to destroy each other. whitecloaks hate aes sedai. ash'aman and aes sedai do not get along for the most part, and they don't trust each other at all. i mean look at rands army. they have 3 countries or so that all hate eachother and are on the brink of turning on each other at any second. not to mention, rands forces and the seanchan forces are all littered with darkfriends. there some theories that Bashere is a darkfriend and he is rands top general. all of the Light forces have this prejudice toward eachother and they all do not like eachother very much. they will, and have, fought as carhien with carhien, tear with tear, illian with illian. this is a massive advantage for the Shadow because if they can drive a wedge in between the factions of the light, they can seperate them and then destroy them. the only people free of prejudices are the aeil. the only people they hate are the carhien. but aside from that and the mentality that all wetlanders are weak, they get along with everyone.

 

so the point of this is the Lights forces are like quarreling children. they need to get their crap together and stop thinking so selfishly if they are going to do anything other than getting butchered in the LB. the shadow all have the same goals. self preservation, glory, and to win. the light is filled with corruption and person goals of people who seek glory. if the light gets over themselves and unite for a common cause, the shadow should be trembling in their boots. but i think that is a tad bit unlikely.  

[Shaidar]

PS. My argument why the percentage of Sea Folk (SF) and Aiel DF channelers is far less than in Westlands.

 

In the Westlands, even in the cities, only 0.5-1% of the population are DF's (see BWB). Crime rates, disorder and inequality are all far higher there than amongst the SF and Aiel. Furthermore, in many places in the Westlands outside the Borderlands and Amadicia, simply being outed as a DF likely won't get you killed, unless you've also committed murders or other crimes. But amongst SF and Aiel, not only are all discovered DF's executed, they are also tortured beforehand.

 

Nonetheless, of the AS in the White Tower, an amazing 20% turned out to be Black Ajah. I was somewhat surprised, but then consider that few girls as a % of the Westland population are screened for channeling ability. However, amongst DF cells, all girls are obligated to go to the White Tower to get tested. Hence, this probably explains why there were so many Black Ajah; despite the small DF recruiting pool, their members were far, far more active about being tested or what we would now call "self-improvement" than the general population.

 

This situation is cardinally different amongst the SF and Aiel, where channeling women are an organic part of society and where *every* girl is tested. Thus, we can expect the ratio of DF's amongst Wise Ones and Windfinders to be broadly similar to the society at large. And I would be willing to bet that given 1) their greater sense of community and 2) the bigger penalties for serving the Shadow, that the numbers of DF's amongst both the Aiel and SF are very small, and the same pertains to the number of their Dark channelers.

 

Oh, and to repeat the last point - 3) the Shadow doesn't even have as much incentive to recruit amongst Aiel and SF, as in the Westlands.

[Luckers]

One more quick niggle Luckers, don't have time to go through that, but will try to get back to you with citations when possible.

The Aiel this side of Dragonmount number 500k, I'll concede that then. But there's still a huge number yet to cross - the carpenters etc, and I'd imagine a fair number of soldiers yes?

 

Firstly, the 500,000 is very unlikely. It was only just over that prior to the Battle of Cairhein, and it is stated that there were dramatic losses to the Bleakness during Rand's incarceration.

 

Secondly the Aiel only left just enough algai'd'siswei to guard the holds. There will not be any more coming.

 

Are you speaking of RJ's quite that the Light is on the ropes and losing in a bad way? That doesn't prove the Light doesn't have many more channelers than the Shadow. If the Shadow has tens of millions of Trollocs (an order of magnitude more than the Blight can support - BS), then odds swing against the Light. Likewise if DO pulls out some of the "nasty tricks" I suggested in my original post.

 

37 channelers killed a hundred thousand trollocs. The Light has access to all of the angreal, sa'angreal and ter'angreal in the world. So if the channeling numbers are vastly different the Shadow is in big trouble, and RJ has stated that it is in fact the reverse which is true.

 

I've never said the Shadow ignores Aiel and Sea Folk. I'm looking at things logically. The Westlands are the Shadow's target and will bear the brunt of the assault. Thus, it would be rational on their part to focus all your active efforts on infiltrating the Westlands - as indeed we know the Forsaken all did, the sole exception being Semirhage. Now if a few Wise Ones or Windmistresses join the cause, great, if not, no big loss.

 

I love when people declare they are looking at things logically. They almost always simply mean "I'm attemptig to make a critical, rational argument" (and usually they aren't, its just hyperbole to lend their argument more weight). Too few understand what logic actually is. It is not just an argument, or even a good argument. There can be logically sustainable points which are patently wrong. There can be fallacious arguments that are true. Logic is a discipline to be used either for the analysis of, or the structuring of, an argument. What you said above is not a construct of logic. Let me transform it into one for you.

 

First Premise:

 

1. The Westlands are the Shadow's target.

 

Conclusion:

 

1. Thus their focus will be on the Westlands alone.

 

Fallacy:

 

The presumption that in seeking to serve their interests in assaulting their target, they did not look for weapons from outside the playing field. You are also ignoring that the Aiel and Atha'an Miere have impinged upon their target, and thus made themselves factors for consideration.

 

For the short, I find the idea unlikely. The Forsaken may not choose to try and control Shara but the Aiel and the Atha'an Miere, like the Seanchan, impinge on the issue at hand. Their prophecies clearly relate to the Dragon, which was not secret, so the Shadow knew that they would involve themselves.

 

No I see no basis to sustain your suggestion that the Shadow would not be interested in foreign lands. Indeed, Ishamael specifically arranged for a Seanchan invasion force to come during TG. His 'second doom'. He was looking at the impact lands outside the Wetlands could have in TG, and would have therefore paid attention to both the Aiel and the Sea Folk due to their prophecies.

 

In the Westlands, even in the cities, only 0.5-1% of the population are DF's (see BWB). Crime rates, disorder and inequality are all far higher there than amongst the SF and Aiel. Furthermore, in many places in the Westlands outside the Borderlands and Amadicia, simply being outed as a DF likely won't get you killed, unless you've also committed murders or other crimes. But amongst SF and Aiel, not only are all discovered DF's executed, they are also tortured beforehand.

 

Counter-point: On the Sea Folk: Well educated, bored people are more self-involved. Certainly this is true of the Atha'an Miere. And, as we see in the Tower, the self-involved are more likely to seek the Shadow to indulge their desires--that is what the Shadow offers. Greater power, greater benefits. The Tower had a 20% source of Darkfriends. The Atha'an Miere are even more self-involved--their entire hierarchy is based about self-interest, clawing what you want irrespective of the hurt it does to others. A veritable breeding pool for potential Darkfriends.

 

Counter-point: On the Aiel. The Aiel are more problematic, of course, yet nevertheless those that break with honour break the hardest. One need look no further than the Shaido to see that this can be like a sickness amongst Aiel--infectious and virulent. This weakness is exactly the sort that a man like Ishamael would percieve and exploit.

 

Additionally you are incorrect. Aiel do not torture Shadowrunners they find, they simply kill them--and that is no different to anywhere else. We have no information on what the Sea Folk do to Darkfriends they find--if they even search for or find them. The Tower certainly proved such is not inherently the case.

 

, amongst DF cells, all girls are obligated to go to the White Tower to get tested.

 

It is never indicated that girls are obliged to go to the Tower--indeed, Liandrin directly shows this is unlikely--she could channel before approaching the Tower but does not think she is a wilder. If Liandrin is not simply deluding herself then this can only mean the Shadow is doing its own testing and training--which is supported by how Ishamael ran things in the Trolloc Wars.

 

Some--those with the skills necessary to attain the shawl--might be sent, though that seems unlikely to me as well. The Black Ajah does not approach any novices or Accepted, even if they are Darkfriends. That does not indicate to me that they were 'sent there'. Liandrin supports this, stating that she was channeling a year before she went to the Tower, and that she did so because she 'dreamed' of being Black Ajah, not because she was sent.

 

 

 

 

[FallingBullets]

Secondly the Aiel only left just enough algai'd'siswei to guard the holds. There will not be any more coming.

They wont come to the last battle?

[Luckers]

The indications say no. If so, so what? Negligable amounts.

[Red Hand Man]

 

Are you speaking of RJ's quite that the Light is on the ropes and losing in a bad way? That doesn't prove the Light doesn't have many more channelers than the Shadow. If the Shadow has tens of millions of Trollocs (an order of magnitude more than the Blight can support - BS), then odds swing against the Light. Likewise if DO pulls out some of the "nasty tricks" I suggested in my original post.

 

37 channelers killed a hundred thousand trollocs. The Light has access to all of the angreal, sa'angreal and ter'angreal in the world. So if the channeling numbers are vastly different the Shadow is in big trouble, and RJ has stated that it is in fact the reverse which is true.

 

 

The point that was raised earlier in the thread about Verin stating the battle is not being fought the way Rand thinks brings up something that I think others were alluding to that wasn't outright stated.

 

<insert Verin's quote when I get home from work or remember to do it, books aren't here>

 

She's saying that it's going on now and he doesn't realize it.  Tarmon Gaidon, in my opinion, is the battle for Rand's psyche.  To get him to WANT to destroy the pattern.  Others brought up that he was DAMNED close to doing it at the end of tGS.

 

The light being in a bad way doesn't necessarily MEAN that they are behind militarily (I however think they are).  I am in the middle of another re-read (LoC) and it seems more and more like the things Rand did to bring the nations together were completely unnecessary.  He should just have studied with Herid, but that would have made for terrible fiction, imagine all of the fishing scenes!

[Luckers]

All of which does not change the points at hand. Do you really suggest the military situation doesn't matter at all--that the Light will destroy the Shadow's forces with ease until the Dark One deigns to bitch slap them back into their proper place? If this is the case why did the War of the Shadow occur.

 

Verin's point is apt. There are games in play that bear nothing on the military situation, which is Rand's focus. The Shadow has goals that bear nothing on the direct confrontation between Light and Shadow. Irrespective the military situation is important. The other things must be addressed, but they are not within the perview of this thread, nor do they effect the points made in this thread in relation to RJ's comment.

 

 

[Shaidar]

@Luckers,

 

37 channelers killed a hundred thousand trollocs. The Light has access to all of the angreal, sa'angreal and ter'angreal in the world. So if the channeling numbers are vastly different the Shadow is in big trouble, and RJ has stated that it is in fact the reverse which is true.

 

37 channelers together, with angreal (IIRC), Trollocs totally unprotected by even a handful of Dark channelers (as we saw with Dumai's Wells, even a small channeling force can protect a larger mass of soldiers from attack), and LTT's crazy skillz. These conditions aren't going to hold in most encounters.

 

And I should stress that I'm hardly biased. Before BS came out with the "there are order(s) of magnitude more Trollocs than the Blight can support", I actually made a thread that "the DO is not winning" - on the basis of the massive channeling disparity. But there's an absolutely huge difference between having 2.5mn Trollocs, and 25mn (or the unthinkable - 250mn) Trollocs.

 

The reason I disagree with your quest to find channelers to match the two sides up is that there is really no evidence for the sheer numbers of Dark WO's and SF and secretly trained channelers that you speak of. Not saying they don't exist; there just haven't been any major hints. If BS were to introduce them all just so in the last two books, it won't be very satisfying.

 

First Premise:

 

1. The Westlands are the Shadow's target.

 

Conclusion:

 

1. Thus their focus will be on the Westlands alone.

 

Misrepresentation. What I said was "I've never said the Shadow ignores Aiel and Sea Folk... Thus, it would be rational on their part to focus all your active efforts on infiltrating the Westlands". Note the italicized parts. Now it's pretty clear that the highest priority is the WT, with *two* Forsaken having been intimately involved there (Moridin, Mesaana). And even there is figure is 20%. I just cannot for the Light see it being bigger than that amongst SF and Aiel.

 

Additionally you are incorrect. Aiel do not torture Shadowrunners they find, they simply kill them--and that is no different to anywhere else. We have no information on what the Sea Folk do to Darkfriends they find--if they even search for or find them. The Tower certainly proved such is not inherently the case.

 

SF DO's are weighted down with stones and drowned, which while it may not qualify as torture exactly isn't exactly a pleasant way to go. As for the Aiel, I believe Aviendha specifically said that if the Maidens discovered one of theirs was a DO, they would make her last hours difficult (or something to that effect). And I don't think "that is no different to anywhere else". I don't have any of the books on hand, but AFAIK in the BWB book says that in most places in the Westlands being a DF by itself won't get you executed; just any crimes you might have committed while being one. It is only in Amadicia that we know for certain that just being a DF is sufficient on its own.

[Red Hand Man]

All of which does not change the points at hand. Do you really suggest the military situation doesn't matter at all--that the Light will destroy the Shadow's forces with ease until the Dark One deigns to bitch slap them back into their proper place? If this is the case why did the War of the Shadow occur.

 

Verin's point is apt. There are games in play that bear nothing on the military situation, which is Rand's focus. The Shadow has goals that bear nothing on the direct confrontation between Light and Shadow. Irrespective the military situation is important. The other things must be addressed, but they are not within the perview of this thread, nor do they effect the points made in this thread in relation to RJ's comment.

 

 

 

First, sorry about the off-topic items.

 

Second, yes the military situation is important.  However, the point I am making is that the assumption that there must be a huge Dark military advantage from RJ/BS stating that the light is "in a bad way" is not evidence that there are more dark channelers lurking about (my interpretation is off-topic, see post above).

 

There are subtleties about the Aiel that I think make their Wise Ones and Chiefs more likely to be darkfriends.

[Majsju]

Regarding what happens to DFs,

Week 4 Question: How exactly does one become a Darkfriend? How does the recruiting structure for the Black Ajah work? Being Mistress of Novices, was Merean particularly active in recruiting?

 

Robert Jordan Answers: By and large, each cell of Darkfriends recruits people it thinks are likely candidates, though they need to do so very carefully, studying them, sounding them out slowly. Darkfriends are always on the lookout for new members, since they feel very much like an oppressed minority and want to increase their numbers. Once a move to recruit is made, though, either it succeeds or the failed candidate dies.

 

For someone seeking actively to become a Darkfriend, generally one begins by trying to attract the attention of those who already are Darkfriends. One fairly safe way is to let comments drop that indicate that you don't think the Light is all it's cracked up to be, that praying to the Creator seems useless etc. If this comes to the wrong ears, you might be in varying degrees of trouble depending on what country you are in and who it is that overhears, but you are unlikely to get worse than a flogging from the authorities and possibly only a stern warning to watch your talk from somebody in a tavern, perhaps accompanied by a clout on the ear. Although someone might decide to slip a knife into you in some rougher areas of some towns. It's only relatively safe. By the by, claiming not to believe in the Creator is a good way to avoid recruitment by the Darkfriends. After all, if there is no Creator, how can the Dark One be imprisoned, and if he isn't, then why hasn't he taken over and rewarded the faithful? One of the fastest ways to attract attention is to show yourself willing to kill to advance yourself or simply for gain. That doesn't mean that every strongarm who's willing to slit a throat to steal a purse is a Darkfriend. Some of those might well be horrified by the suggestion. This method has its drawbacks, of course, since if you attract the attention of the authorities first, you are very likely to end up with a noose around your neck or a trip to the headsman's block.

 

[Shaidar]

Majsju, that's what happens to murderers.

 

One of the fastest ways to attract attention is to show yourself willing to kill to advance yourself or simply for gain. That doesn't mean that every strongarm who's willing to slit a throat to steal a purse is a Darkfriend. Some of those might well be horrified by the suggestion. This method has its drawbacks, of course, since if you attract the attention of the authorities first, you are very likely to end up with a noose around your neck or a trip to the headsman's block.

[Majsju]

*facepalm* I bolded the wrong part. That is what happens when you try to multitask... ;D

 

What I planned to bold, the reason I dug up the quote, is this,

If this comes to the wrong ears, you might be in varying degrees of trouble depending on what country you are in and who it is that overhears, but you are unlikely to get worse than a flogging from the authorities and possibly only a stern warning to watch your talk from somebody in a tavern, perhaps accompanied by a clout on the ear

[Diederichos]

6 banners of horse is 9k men, 9 banners of foot is 27k...I don't understand how the numbers for the Band were reached.