WOT: Seanchan Succession Mafia - Game Over - Town Wins!

[craftyreader]

Ok, I looked at Jeran's post where he said Pete was dead, and the post where he is updating the dead people.  My question is, was Pete town or not?  All it says was he was a Sul'dam Doubler.

 

Just curious, yanno?

[Alanna]

Pete has to be town. My results last night cleared him. Because Night 1, I looked at Tynaal, Talmanes, and Pete, and got ODD. Meaning 1 or 2 of them were non-town. Last night, I looked at Tynaal, Talamanes, and me, and got ODD. Since I am town, only one of them can be non-town. Which means the first night, only 1 of them could be non-town, not all 3 of them. And it was obviously Tynaal or Talmanes. Which means Pete was innocent. Does that make sense?

[Alanna]

Sorry, I meant to say 1 or 3 of them was non-town, not 1 or 2.

[Jeran]

Sorry...anyone who's death post is green is town.  I'll update Pete's post and the first page post to say town.

 

Vote Update:

[glow=green,2,300]

Talmanes (2) - Wombat, Alanna

[/glow]

Not Voting: Ellianora, Talmanes, Rose, Tigraine, Ed, CUBA, Tynaal, Pookie, crafty

 

It takes 6 votes to lynch...deadline Tuesday at 10:00 PM EST

[craftyreader]

Jeran -

 

thanks :)

 

Alanna - There is so much to weed through al the pages and it was easier to go to the source :)

[Pookie]

[glow=red,2,300]Talmanes[/glow]

Him receiving a viewing last night blew my obscure theory of why we had so many finders away.  Call it a newb mistake, but I wondered if Alanna receiving viewings on odd nights and Talmanes on even nights was an unmentioned aspect of their roles.  Meaning I thought they may be blocked by the mod rather than a person.  Since Alanna can view 3 and Talmanes 2... odd, even, yeah. 

[Talmanes]

Well I could send in my name as one of my two, but since I know I am innocent, I saw no point. Also I have given results where Tynaal hasn't which doesn't exactly scream good to me. Also since we know that Pete was innocent, and I know I am, that leaves Tynaal. Technically Pookie and Tynaal could both be scum, but I doubt it. My viewing pretty much guarantees that Tynaal is scum, unless Alanna lied about her viewings, which I also doubt. I'm really not seeing any evidence against me here, and I'm not sure what you guys seem to see. Also I think that the real healer shouldn't reveal. It would help prove that Tynaal is scum, but it would also make him/her a target.

[CUBAREY]

DOES Alanna's explanation of who she viewed last night seem fishy to anyone else?  Here is a thought could Talmanes and Alanna be running a Kivam's Gambit?  NOT ready to vote for anyone right now although I DO not view my vote on Tynaal yesterday as wrong still am suspicious but Alanna is ringing a lot of bells for me.

[Tigraine]

Is there an actual finder in this game...one that straight up can find out if someone is scum or not?  I don't feel like Talmanes is scum but I guess it's obvious that either him or Tynaal one are.  I'm still gonna give in a day or two before I vote since the deadline is so far off...maybe someone will come forward and prove that one of them is lying.

[mnwhiterose]

Tynaal's claim of being unable to protect Pete raises a big flag for me. Frankly, she could be saying she tried to heal Pete as part of the mafia ploy. Pretend not to be able to heal her team's target. And if Alanna's result is odd, then 1 or 3 of the individuals is non-town. I'm betting Tynaal is the reason (or one of the reasons) for that result.

 

Tynaal

[Alanna]

Talmanes - the point in sending in your own name is that it can tell you for sure if someone is scum. If, for instance, you sent in your name and Tynaal, and got a positive result, you would know for sure that Tynaal is scum. This is supposing you actually are innocent, of course.

 

Cuba - what do you find fishy, exactly? I really do feel dumb, but at the time, I thought it would be good to clear Pete, since yesterday there were a number of people who were intent on going after him. And, again, I was sick. Fever and headache = not thinking very well. And I wouldn't lie about being sick in mafia game.

 

The mafia roleblocking Tynaal makes a lot of sense, actually. From their POV, they have to try and guess who the healer will protect, and if they guess wrong, they could end up with no nk. So blocking the healer ensures that their nk will work.

[mnwhiterose]

shoot.  I forgot to glow.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Tynaal[/glow]

[ed2funy]

Really, I don't see the real Healer (if Ty is scum) revealing because they probably want to protect their own hide.

If Ty is the healer, she has too many hard choices, and for some reason I feel that if someone else is the healer, I feel a little more safe.

I will vote later after we hear from her. Her excuse could be valid or it could be a lie. :-\

[Alanna]

That's what I thought yesterday, Ed, but honestly at this point, if there is a 'real' healer besides Tynaal, they need to reveal. There are 10 of us left, and likely 4 mafia. If we lynch an innocent today, we'll have lost, and the mafia will win. This is kind of the last straw, we have to lynch a mafia member today. There's no point in the healer 'protecting' themself by not revealing at this point.

[ed2funy]

Why would we lose?

Doesn't it have to be even?

 

That is true. But....idk..it is a dilemma I am glad I don't have to deal with. Being the healer would suck atm.

 

[WWWwombat]

I'm doing a lot of thinking right now.  Be prepared for a mammoth post.

[ed2funy]

Ok.

 

 

[craftyreader]

Say we believe Tynaal is the healer, and that Talmanes is a finder of sorts.  Which role is more likely to be mafia? 

[Alanna]

Talmanes as finder is more likely. There is no reason for a healer to be mafia. They aren't targeted by nightkills, i.e., nothing to protect them from. It is also unlikely a healer is a solo role. Why would they want to protect anyone if they're solo?

 

Also, Ed: If we lynch an innocent, there will be 9 of us. Presumably, 5 innocents and 4 mafia. If the mafia then successfully nk another innocent tonight, it will be 4 innocents and 4 mafia. And the game will be over.

[ed2funy]

*goes to OP*

There are 11 now....

o.0

 

[Alanna]

And...now I feel even dumber. Sorry, my mistake :P Fever's gone, still have a bit of a headache. I should just stop. I still think it would be worth it for the 'real' healer to reveal, if there is one, though.

[WWWwombat]

Alright here goes.

 

Pete flipped innocent so if you believe Alanna, only one of Talmanes and Tynaal is anti-town.  I believe Tynaal's claim and I don't believe Talmanes' claim, hence my vote.

 

Suppose Talmanes is scum.  Therefore the mafia knows Tynaal is the healer and they apparently can roleblock her.  They do this making their nk go through no matter what.  Then the best candidates for nk are Alanna and Pete as both have powerful roles and both voted for Talmanes last time.  I would choose to nk Alanna here to prevent any possibility of a finding.  Of course Alanna could be scum, but I don't think that is likely.  If she is, hats off to her.

 

 

Suppose Tynaal is scum.

 

Mafia nking Pete means it is more likely Tynaal gets lynched.  They don't want this because if we lynch an innocent then they win.  If we lynch scum it sets them back a lot.

If the mafia nk'd someone who voted for Tynaal, it would be more likely that Talmanes gets lynched imo.  Then again maybe we read into the nk and conclude that they don't want a lynch on Tynaal and we lynch Tynaal.  The thing is, if they nk Alanna or Pete, we might only see them nking a power role, at which point we lynch Tynaal.  I would probably take the chance of nking someone who was one of the main players in the effort to lynch Tynaal.

 

Conclusion:  I don't see the nk of Pete making sense in either of the two situations, but I think it makes less sense in the situation in which Tynaal is scum.

 

People left and my suspicions:

 

2. WWWwombat - I'm innocent

3. Alanna - I think she's innocent

5. Ellianora - No idea.  She lurked in the other game I was in with her, but she was a mafia roleblocker in that

6. Talmanes - Scummy in deed and by logic

7. mnwhitrose - Scummy

9. Tigraine - No idea

10. ed2funy - No idea

12. CUBAREY - Scummy

13. Tynaal Consen - I think she's the healer

14. Pookie - No idea

15. craftyreader - Slight ping

 

Other thoughts:  I really believe Tynaal's claim.  She acted like a healer even before she revealed.  I believe Alanna.  She revealed when she was about to get lynched and she just seems innocent to me.  If she is scum, we are probably screwed anyway.  If I believe Tynaal and I believe Alanna, then I have to believe Talmanes is scum.  The only way I see Talmanes being innocent is if Alanna is scum.

[WWWwombat]

Hmm.  A lot of that hinges on Alanna.  I don't get her choice of targets last night as it wasn't very good imo, but that doesn't mean she's scum.

[ed2funy]

You said that before. I don't see it, could you point it out? How did she act like a healer? It would help to see.

 

I had to read your post twice, and then I got it...I think. ;D

I was actually expecting a bigger post for some reason. :D

 

 

EDIT: Why do you always double post?! :P

[WWWwombat]

The post was even bigger but I pruned and organized it a bit.  Anyway, the main thing about Tynaal acting like a healer was when she told people to say sorry to the healer for all the reveals.  That's a big healer tell there imo.  Then, after I was already suspecting her of being healer, she comes out with her almost reveal, which just clinched it for me.  The healer role is definitely useless if you reveal, as you have to use it on yourself.