Mat's Luck

[Alternate34]

I don't think the Aridhol using the Shadow to fight the Shadow means they tapped into the powers of chance.  The effects of the dagger create paranoia in the dagger holder and that seed of paranoia is what infects everyone else.  Look at Mat as he is travelling with Rand in TEOTW.  He slowly devolves into a super paranoid being.  The darkness that took Aridhol was that they turned on each other, losing all trust for friends and allies.  I don't think that Aridhol's fate at all insinuates that the dagger caused Mat's luck.

 

I don't ignore that Mat won a bunch of money when he needed to leave Tar Valon.  However, he ALWAYS wins at dice.  He never has a losing streak or a streak of normal luck.  The counter to this is that he always has to win in order to get money.  There are example where this isn't true.  In Tear when he gambles, right after Rand pulls out Callandor, he still wins and he has no present need for money.  In fact money might be the last thing he needs because being ta'veren, he was being pulled toward Rand, not pushed away.  As I continue my re-read of the books, I'll try to find more examples, but his luck does not correspond with his need at all times.  I think that there are times when he super luck when the ta'veren pull and his luck act simultaneously, but he has extraordinary luck aside from when he needs it.

[Mr Ares]

The first time we see Mat's greatly increased luck is after the TV healing, but if I remember correctly, wasn't he in a coma for much of the trip from Toman Head to TV.

No. He talks of dicing with Hurin on the road to TV. He was lucky then, and he was lucky in Shienar, but not as lucky as he would be after the Healing.

 

Mat also associates the luck with his ta'veren status at different points

No, he doesn't. Ever.

 

The problem with the Dagger theory is that there's no real reason to associate the dagger with luck apart from timing, which equally supports the ta'veren theory since Mat became ta'veren at approximately the same time he got the dagger

Except it was specifically noted that he wasn't as lucky in the TR, that the luck came after SL. So timing doesn't support ta'veren, it flatly contradicts it.

 

this extended passage where Mat considers his luck to be "ta'veren work":

It says nothing of the sort. He does not equate his luck and ta'veren. They are not the same.

 

So Mat's contradicting himself at different points in time.

He isn't, he's very consistent on the point. You have provided no quote to support this assertion.

 

Give me a time after he acquires super luck that he loses at dice or mentions that his dice luck was gone.

He mentions a losing streak in Ebou Dar. And he has mentioned that his luck runs in waves. When in, it works for him, when not in it doesn't work. He might win, he might lose.

 

It seems to me that people are overlooking this.

There's nothing to overlook. Mat is ta'veren, and his ta'veren does things. Mat is lucky, and his luck does things. The two are separate, but might overlap. His luck made him win at dice. The other stuff might be down to ta'veren, but his luck couldn't convince Siuan to give the letters to the girls, nor the girls to give one to Mat.

I believe that he only wins when he has some need for the money that he's taking in

He wins even when there is no money on the line, or just coppers.

paying the Band

Currently, the Band is being paid for by the money Talmanes earnt from Roedran by having the Band act as an invading army. Which is fortunate, as they're too big to be bankrolled by Mat's dice games.

[Thorn]

 

Mat also associates the luck with his ta'veren status at different points

No, he doesn't. Ever.

 

I'm sorry, I believe you are reading the passages I have provided to you incorrectly. Quotes like "that had to be ta'veren work" or "never noticed anything twisting around himself, except the fall of dice" clearly indicate, imho, that Mat considers his luck to be ta'veren-derived.

 

The problem with the Dagger theory is that there's no real reason to associate the dagger with luck apart from timing, which equally supports the ta'veren theory since Mat became ta'veren at approximately the same time he got the dagger

Except it was specifically noted that he wasn't as lucky in the TR, that the luck came after SL. So timing doesn't support ta'veren, it flatly contradicts it.

 

Mat also didn't marry the Daughter of the Nine Moons the instant he stepped across the Taren in Book 1, either. His ta'veren influence on the Pattern -- and thus his "luck" -- waxes and wanes depending on what the Pattern needs from him at a given point in time. It's at it's peak in TDR because he's imprisoned inside Tar Valon and needs to get out, so the Pattern goes absolutely wild pushing chance to get him out of there, alive, and on a path towards the Stone (since he needs to go to Rhuidean eventually). In Eye of the World it hadn't kicked into nearly as high gear yet, because it didn't need to -- he was tagging along with Rand, which was the quickest way to get him to Rhuidean (and we know that he had to go to Rhuidean and tag along with Rand because of the *finn's statements in the Tear doorway and because of several statements by Mat that the Pattern was pulling him towards Rand).

 

This is *why* Mat's luck waxes and wanes, and it's also why he didn't have hugely successful luck in Ebou Dar -- the Pattern didn't need him to be lucky right then, and didn't need him to go anywhere or do anything except hang out in Ebou Dar until Tuon showed up.

 

In Path of Daggers, Verin makes this comment:

 

"And if they had succeeded in carrying him to Tar Valon? A ta'veren like Rand Al'Thor actually inside the White Tower? A thought to make a stone tremble. However it had turned out, disaster would surely have been too mild a word."

 

That's why Mat was so crazily lucky while he was imprisoned in Tar Valon. It was the Pattern twisting chance, twisting his luck, to get him out. Dagger had nothing to do with it.

 

[Muad Cheade]

I think it's the dagger that made Mat so lucky.

 

1). He was only lucky after he acquired the dagger.

 

2). He experienced even greater luck when he was Healed yet he was still irrevocably touched by the dagger (memory loss etc.)

 

3). When Fain has the dagger and is in the Two Rivers (TSR), Slayer (who is sent to kill him), says that he is the luckiest man alive because of his newfound ability to escape death and Slayer.

[Thorn]

 

3). When Fain has the dagger and is in the Two Rivers (TSR), Slayer (who is sent to kill him), says that he is the luckiest man alive because of his newfound ability to escape death and Slayer.

 

This is a decent point, and I'd appreciate it if someone posted the full quote. The problem is, Fain is also touched by the Dark One, so his "luck" can also be explained by "The Dark One's Own Luck."

 

That's really the thing here -- there are only two characters associated with Aridhol, one of them has the Dark One's Own Luck (fain), one of them is ta'veren and we know ta'veren are lucky. So for either one of them, there's a confounding factor that could be the source of the Luck, and there's no proof that Aridhol's taint by itself can give rise to unusual luck.

[Mr Ares]

I'm sorry, I believe you are reading the passages I have provided to you incorrectly.

No, I'm reading them correctly. He considers something related to ta'veren. So what? He is a ta'veren. He is also lucky. Just because he admits that something is due to him being ta'veren, doesn't mean it had asnything to do with his luck. Him thinking he hasn't had any benefit from ta'veren the same way he has his luck? Clearly different.

 

Mat also didn't marry the Daughter of the Nine Moons the instant he stepped across the Taren in Book 1, either.

That's not much of an argument. He hadn't even met her. He was ta'veren in the TR, but not lucky. The luck came later. Timing doesn't fit.

"And if they had succeeded in carrying him to Tar Valon? A ta'veren like Rand Al'Thor actually inside the White Tower? A thought to make a stone tremble. However it had turned out, disaster would surely have been too mild a word."

That doesn't support you. We know ta'veren cause crazy effects. Mat didn't. His effects were focused solely on him. Unless you mean to say Verin was worried about Rand winning a lot of dice games?

 

there's no proof that Aridhol's taint by itself can give rise to unusual luck.

Nothing to say it can't either. And it's remarked that they don't know what permanent effect the dagger will have on him, and Fain does have all those powers.

[Mr. Dragon]

He was ta'veren in the TR, but not lucky. The luck came later. Timing doesn't fit.

So? Rand was tav'ern in TR as well but we didn't see anything like wells drying up or lots of weddings.

 

[Thorn]

That doesn't support you. We know ta'veren cause crazy effects. Mat didn't. His effects were focused solely on him. Unless you mean to say Verin was worried about Rand winning a lot of dice games?

 

I posit that Siuan Sanche giving the WonderGirls those two "What the bearer does is  done at my command and by my authority" blank letter permission slips was also in part due to Mat's ta'veren twisting. The pattern needed him out.

 

Verin was worried about what would've happened if Rand had been in the Tower. It probably never could've gotten Elaida to write that kind of "permission slip" for Rand; it would've had to arrange something even more drastic to get him out, and that's what Verin was afraid of.  

 

Rand's ta'veren effects are broader than Mat's because Rand is astronomically more ta'veren than Mat is (or Perrin). (I'm not sure we know how strong Mat's ta'veren is, except that it's much less than Rand's; I believe Mat is comparable to Hawkwing but I can't remember where I read that). That's why we see the crazy city-wide chance-twisting (marriages, fish falling in patterns, etc.) around Rand, but not around Mat or Perrin. I think you're mistaking a difference in degree for a difference in kind.

 

there's no proof that Aridhol's taint by itself can give rise to unusual luck.

Nothing to say it can't either. And it's remarked that they don't know what permanent effect the dagger will have on him, and Fain does have all those powers.

 

Right. The case for ta'veren and against Dagger is simple:

 

1) There's direct quotes in the books that say ta'veren can twist chance, even specifically games of chance (Lan's quote re: Hawkwing). So, direct proof that ta'veren can cause "Luck" like Mat's luck. Ta'veren status can do other things too -- twist people, cause bizarre coincidences, etc. -- but we know specifically that ta'veren status can cause games of chance to twist in the ta'veren's favor.

 

2) There's no evidence that proves Aridhol's taint, by itself, can have the same effect. Fain is lucky also, but he also was touched by the Dark One, so his luck may derive from *that* source instead -- just like with Mat, there's a confounding variable, although the variable is different (the Dark One instead of the Pattern).

 

Everything else in this debate is just shades of meaning orbiting around those two points. AT root, there's solid evidence to support the theory that Mat's luck is directly caused by his ta'veren status, whereas the Dagger/Aridhol theory, at best, cannot be disproven.

 

Between the two, personally, I take the theory that has evidence for it. And right now that's the ta'veren theory, because we know ta'veren twist games of chance from Lan's quote and other places, and there's no similarly unequivocal evidence for Aridhol's taint twisting chance.

[Locke]

I thought Mat mentioned somewhere in TDR that he used to always be lucky but was even luckier now or something but I might be wrong.  I was thinking that there might be different types of ta'veren or else Mat has something completely different. I don't think it came from the dagger, because there is nothing to suggest besides timing that the dagger has anything to do with luck.  Another thing to think about is the dice in his head that bounce when something important is about to happen. That sounds like something related to the pattern and in a futuristic way.  I hope that at some point we receive some sort of explanation from Brandon.

[Mr Ares]

So? Rand was tav'ern in TR as well but we didn't see anything like wells drying up or lots of weddings.

Irrelevant. He thinks of the luck as separate, and of starting at a different time.

 

I posit that Siuan Sanche giving the WonderGirls those two "What the bearer does is  done at my command and by my authority" blank letter permission slips was also in part due to Mat's ta'veren twisting. The pattern needed him out.

Perhaps it was (although we can't put everything down to ta'veren). However, it says nothing about his luck.

 

I think you're mistaking a difference in degree for a difference in kind.

No, you're mistaking a difference in kind for a similarity in kind.

 

Between the two, personally, I take the theory that has evidence for it.

Thus, the dagger. Ta'veren has nothing but rumours for it, and evidence against.

 

I thought Mat mentioned somewhere in TDR that he used to always be lucky but was even luckier now or something but I might be wrong.

He did. He notes his luck improved after SL, and he wasn't this lucky back in EF.

or else Mat has something completely different.

Bingo. And it started after SL.

Another thing to think about is the dice in his head that bounce when something important is about to happen.

Indeed. That sounds nothing at all like ta'veren. Neither Rand nor Perrin has anything comparable. So it must be something unique to mat, not something common to all three. Something that happened to him that could only be noticed after SL, something that hadn't happened to him in the TR. Something known to give magic powers, perhaps. Something also associated with luck. Something other than ta'veren. Something he doesn't want to think about. Something dagger shaped.

[Mr. Dragon]

So? Rand was tav'ern in TR as well but we didn't see anything like wells drying up or lots of weddings.

Irrelevant. He thinks of the luck as separate, and of starting at a different time.

How exactly is it irrelevant? You stated something that supposedly helps your cause, I used evidence to contridict what you just said.

 

Mat thinking that his luck started just after SL in no way makes it true. When you examine why he might think it started then, it is easy to see that his thinking is incorrect. Lets look at that the 3 events that are mentioned in the book as to why Mat might think his luck started then, the first is finding Domon's boat, this can be attributed to either being fortunate or to Rand being tav'ern. The second is when the boomer on Domon's boat chrashed into the trolloc and waking the crew, the third is when the lightening hits the inn where they are trapped allowing them to escape. Both 2 and 3 can be attributed to Rand channeling. As well as this, because the dagger makes Mat very suspicous, it is unlikly that he'd partake of much or any gambling.

 

All of this gives him little evidence to base his thinking on.

[Locke]

What I'd like to know, is exactly how a dagger can affect someone's luck.  The SL dagger is basically an evil dagger that poisons and kills with a scratch. 

 

 

[Red Hand Man]

I'm pretty sure that the few times any of the ta'veren have gambled against each other it ends up in a tie.  For instance when Mat flips a coin to make a decision involving Rand, when Rand is there it lands on edge and Mat blames Rand for channeling (which he doesn't).

 

So, I think that's pretty strong evidence for Mat's luck being ta'veren based.  I don't recall any instances of Perrin gambling.

 

Thoughts?

[algspkr]

I'm pretty sure that the few times any of the ta'veren have gambled against each other it ends up in a tie.  For instance when Mat flips a coin to make a decision involving Rand, when Rand is there it lands on edge and Mat blames Rand for channeling (which he doesn't).

 

So, I think that's pretty strong evidence for Mat's luck being ta'veren based.  I don't recall any instances of Perrin gambling.

 

Thoughts?

I don't think Mat was blaming Rand for channeling, but for letting his ta'veren pull yank on the coin; though your interpretation of the event may be correct.

[Mr Ares]

How exactly is it irrelevant?

How is it relevant? There is more than one effect of ta'veren. We didn't see things like lots of wedding in most places Rand was.

 

Mat thinking that his luck started just after SL in no way makes it true.

Unlike the ta'veren theory, or your dismissal, it does make it supported by actual evidence from the books. He gambled in EF, remember. So he could see he wasn't as lucky then as he was afterwards. You have no reason to dismiss it.

 

What I'd like to know, is exactly how a dagger can affect someone's luck.

It being a dagger is unimportant. The important part is the SL taint, which makes it a magic dagger.

 

So, I think that's pretty strong evidence for Mat's luck being ta'veren based.

No evidence at all. Him being ta'veren isn't helping him win dice games, that's his luck. other stuff is ta'veren. The two are different.

[Thorn]

 

So, I think that's pretty strong evidence for Mat's luck being ta'veren based.

No evidence at all. Him being ta'veren isn't helping him win dice games, that's his luck. other stuff is ta'veren. The two are different.

 

So Mat's luck isn't ta'veren, but it's being cancelled out by Rand's luck, which must be ta'veren because Rand never was linked to the dagger?

[Saguin Venart]

I only noticed his lucky streak after he visited Rhuiden. I think that's where his luck comes from. His trip through the Ter'angreal.

[Mr Ares]

I only noticed his lucky streak after he visited Rhuiden.

It was present in books 2 and 3.

 

So Mat's luck isn't ta'veren, but it's being cancelled out by Rand's luck, which must be ta'veren because Rand never was linked to the dagger?

You have a point? Ta'veren can affect coins, but not always in favour of the ta'veren, while Mat's luck works only in his favour, and only on random things. A coin landing on its edge is not in his favour, so it isn't luck. It's ta'veren.

[Mr. Micawber]

I only noticed his lucky streak after he visited Rhuiden.

It was present in books 2 and 3.

 

So Mat's luck isn't ta'veren, but it's being cancelled out by Rand's luck, which must be ta'veren because Rand never was linked to the dagger?

You have a point? Ta'veren can affect coins, but not always in favour of the ta'veren, while Mat's luck works only in his favour, and only on random things. A coin landing on its edge is not in his favour, so it isn't luck. It's ta'veren.

 

Damn, a coin-based superpower? I never thought about it that way. I suppose it's a good thing they're in an Age with no paper or electronic money.

[Thorn]

 

Damn, a coin-based superpower? I never thought about it that way. I suppose it's a good thing they're in an Age with no paper or electronic money.

 

This may be the funniest comment in the thread so far (can I call this the "Mat is Magneto" theory?) but even that doesn't work:

 

"Do we have to do it this way?" Mat said. "What do you have against riding?" Rand only looked at him, and he shrugged uncomfortably. "Oh, burn me. If you're trying to decide . . ." Taking both horses' reins in one hand, he dug a coin from his pocket, a gold Tar Valon mark, and sighed.  "It would be the same coin, wouldn't it." He rolled the coin across the backs of his fingers. "I'm . . lucky sometimes, Rand. Let my luck choose. Head, the one that points to your right; flame, the other. What do you say?"

 

"This is the most ridiculous" Egwene began, but Moiraine silenced her with a touch on the arm.

 

Rand nodded. "Why not?" Egwene muttered something; all he caught were "men" and "boys," but it did not sound a compliment.

 

The coin spun into the air off Mat's thumb, gleaming dully in the sun. At its peak, Mat snatched it back and slapped it down on the back of his other hand, then hesitated. "It's a bloody thing to be trusting to the toss of a coin, Rand."

 

Rand laid his palm down on one of the symbols without looking. "This one," he said. "You chose this one."

 

Mat peeked at the coin and blinked. "You're right. How did you know?"

 

"It has to work for me sooner or later." None of them understood -- he could see that -- but it did not matter.

 

It's in Shadow Rising; the passage where Rand et.al. transition to Rhuidean via Portal Stone.

 

Note that Mat specifically invokes his "luck," flips a coin, the decision is to his benefit -- and Rand makes the same decision by making an equally random guess, then specifically cites their mutual ta'veren status as the reason they both picked the same symbol.

 

It's ta'veren.

[Mr. Dragon]

How exactly is it irrelevant?

Mat thinking that his luck started just after SL in no way makes it true.

Unlike the ta'veren theory, or your dismissal, it does make it supported by actual evidence from the books. He gambled in EF, remember. So he could see he wasn't as lucky then as he was afterwards. You have no reason to dismiss it.

I just gave you my reasons why it should be dismissed, events that weren't written about could show that his luck started after SL but as they aren't mentioned either at the time or after the fact or even insinuated by a casual remark by either Rand or Thom, we can only assume that they didn't happen; this only leaves evidence that contridicts Mat's thinking.

[Cillian]

I'm pretty sure that the few times any of the ta'veren have gambled against each other it ends up in a tie.  For instance when Mat flips a coin to make a decision involving Rand, when Rand is there it lands on edge and Mat blames Rand for channeling (which he doesn't).

 

So, I think that's pretty strong evidence for Mat's luck being ta'veren based.  I don't recall any instances of Perrin gambling.

 

Thoughts?

 

TSR - Chpt 24 - Rhuidean

Mat flips the coin ;

'Somehow he missed grabbing it; the mark careened of his fingertips, clinked to the pavement, bounced twice.... And landed on edge.

He glared at Rand accusingly. "Do you do this sort of thing on purpose? Can't you control it?"

"No." The coin fell over , showing an ageless woman's face surrounded by stars. "It looks like you stay out here, Mat."'

 

So the coin didn't stay on edge. But that makes no difference since Mat wasn't gambling against Rand, he was trying to decide whether or not to enter the columns with Rand.

[Red Hand Man]

How exactly is it irrelevant?

Mat thinking that his luck started just after SL in no way makes it true.

Unlike the ta'veren theory, or your dismissal, it does make it supported by actual evidence from the books. He gambled in EF, remember. So he could see he wasn't as lucky then as he was afterwards. You have no reason to dismiss it.

I just gave you my reasons why it should be dismissed, events that weren't written about could show that his luck started after SL but as they aren't mentioned either at the time or after the fact or even insinuated by a casual remark by either Rand or Thom, we can only assume that they didn't happen; this only leaves evidence that contridicts Mat's thinking.

This is a SPECIFIC example of how Mat's luck works for him and how Rand's luck works for him.  It is ta'veren.  Has anyone looked into when Rand started seeing ta'veren luck?

 

I would venture a guess that it all manifested in each of them at about the same time.  Perrin's wolf-dreamin' and Mat's luck seemed to have begun to manifest themselves at the same time, as well as Rand's channeling.  It could be that it is specific to Mat's soul (and could be enhanced by the dagger, but I don't think so).

[Mr Ares]

It's ta'veren.

It's grasping at straws. For every luck=ta'veren, you need page long quotes, subject to interpretation. For every luck!=ta'veren, only a couple of lines are needed, with no room for interpretation. Mine is simple, yours is convoluted and unsupported.

 

I just gave you my reasons why it should be dismissed, events that weren't written about could show that his luck started after SL but as they aren't mentioned either at the time or after the fact or even insinuated by a casual remark by either Rand or Thom, we can only assume that they didn't happen; this only leaves evidence that contridicts Mat's thinking.

I repeat to you what i have said to Thorn. You have nothing. No indication that Mat's luck is anything other than the dagger. That is clearly what RJ was trying to tell us, or at the very least that it was not ta'veren and started right after SL.

[WolfDragonFox]

I think it is part of his souls unique identity magnified by being ta'varen....so i said anything else.