The Role of the Horn Hunters in TG

[cloglord]

This is a repost of a thread I started on another site about 2 years ago, but I thought that it was due for another go being as I have been arguing this argument in two different threads.  I thought if I put it in one thread, people who were interested in discussing it could, and those who gave up, (and you know who you are,) wouldn't have to be bothered by it.

 

I was reading along this morning and noticed something that I hadn't

thought in the whole time that I have been reading this series.

Hunters for the horn. They have been spotted in every land at nearly

every point in the series. From accounts of the oath ceremony there

were thousands of hunters assembled in Illian to take the oath. What

if all of these hunters were in one place? Wouldn't this make an army

in an of itself? We know that the horn of Valere has some connection

to Illian. If we assume that the discovery of the horn will be

announced before TG wouldn't this cause this hunter diaspora to return

to Illian? If we assume that Matt will end up reunited with the horn,

and that the Band will remain with him, it seems to me that Matt will

be starting TG in Illian with the combined forces of the band, and

thousands of hunters for the horn. If this is the case, it would clear

up something that has been troubling me about how RJ has been arranging

the Randland Armies.

 

If you look at a map of Randland, it is arguably square. As of the end

of KoD we have some pretty big armies that seem to be taking positions

for what we know to be the beggining ot TG. Rand seems to be taking

every Aiel he can find up to Arad Doman, the Northwest corner of the

map, the Seanchan hold the southeast, Lan is taking the borderlanders

to the Northeast, and there seem to be thousands of Andorans and

Borderlanders converging on Camelyn, roughly center. Other armies of

note are the Whitecloaks, which were last seen headed roughly north,

maybe towards Tar Valon. The Tar Valon armies, both rebel and tower

forces located roughly halfway between Lan's forces and Camelyn, and

Perrin's army + thousands and thousands of refugees, which are roughly

halfway between Seanchan territory and Camelyn. Given RJ's penchant

for balance and symetry, it has been bothering me that a land with 4

corners has only 3 of those corners covered. There is as of KoD no

meaningful force left in the Southeast of Randland. I think that an

army of hunters for the horn with a coreforce of legend, lead by the

son of battles with a vanguard of dead heroes would nicely fit the

bill, and cover that corner of the map. Coincidently, Matt will have

to make an appearance in Illian before TG if he is to be reunited with

the Horn.

 

This seems like a lot to accomplish before TG you say? I don't know,

it seems pretty doable to me. What has to get done before Matt can

show up in Illian? 1. He has to journey to the tower of Ghenji and

save Moraine. CUrrently Matt and the Band are located a hop and a skip

from the Manetherendrelle which coincidently flows past both the tower

of Ghenji AND Illian. I see Matt's storyline in MoL having him take a

rivertrip up the Manetherendrelle to the tower, and then a return trip

south straight to Illian. Besides traveling, sailing has been the

fastest way anywhere in the books, not to mention the fact that Matt is

currently traveling with one of the best rivertraders/smugglers ever,

Bale Doman.

 

Yeah, so maybe Matt can make it upriver and down before TG, but how is

the horn going to get to Illian, and how will enough people hear about

its discovery to gather all of the hunters before TG? THe answer is

simple. Only 2 people in the world know were the horn of Valere is.

Suian and Verin. Verin recently disapeared on a little quest of her

own, saying that she could, "fulfill her oath," better elsewhere. It

is my belief that Verin is going to TarValon to recover the horn of

valere. We also know that the King of Illian Mattin Stephanos is

currently housed in Tar Valon. Who better to carry the horn to Illian,

who better to spread the word? Assuming that Verin wouldn't just make

a gateway for him to Illian, we can still assume that a fast riverboat

from TarValon to Tear and a ship from Tear to Illian would still bring

the horn to Illian in around the same time as it takes for Matt to get

back from the tower of ghenji. If you look closely at the map of

Randland you will also notice that nearly every river empties into

either Ebou Dar, Illian, or Tear. The one real exception is Tanchio.

If word started spreading from the North that the horn had been found,

it would be a simple boat trip of a few weeks for all of the hunters

for the horn to sail south, and meet up in Illian.

 

 

So, the questions I have are these. Is it clear that Matt will end up

in Illian at the start of TG? How will the horn get to Illian before

TG? Will the scattered hunters assemble there or are they a

non-entity? Does it matter if all 4 corners of Randland have armies

deployed on the side of the light? Is Verin going to TV to recover the

HoV? Did any of the above ramblings make sense?

[Caedn of the Taardad]

Hmmm... good points.  I've actually all but forgotten about the hunters, ecxept Faile of course, and I haven't seen said map; but I know where the armies are and I have always wondered if anything would ome of the connection with Illian, so deffinately plausible from my perspective...  The next question is, if Matt is based in one of the corners, where will Perrin end up standing?  Rand will presumabley be either busy with more important tasks, or perhaps jumping about everywhere, but the placement of the other two Taveran may be a key fact...

 

Something new to think about certainly, thanks. 

[Charlz Guybon]

Didn't Faile describe the scene in Illian when the Hunters took the oath? I thought she said there were 2,000 hunters. Am I wrong? ???

[cloglord]

I thought that you were off by one decimal point.  My estimate was in the tens of thousands, but I don't have my books with me to look it up.  You are correct, I do remember either Luca or Faile or both describing the events of the swearing.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Quoth Faile, in TDR ch 35

 

"There were over a thousand of us, perhaps two, and every one with an idea of where to find the Horn of Valere."

 

So, its really 1000+, with 2000 being the absolute upper limit ... not remotely 20,000.

 

The Hunters would not make any kind of meaningful or useful army.  They are independent by nature, smaller even than the remnant of the Whitecloaks, with absolutely zero organization.  The majority are glory hounds, and they are scattered to the four winds with no means of gathering other than their own two feet.  And if they are gathering toward Illian, they're gathering in the wrong direction.  This doesn't matter if you're going by gateway, but if you're walking, or even riding in a boat, it is extremely counterproductive.

[a5m]

Isn't the Great Stump occuring in the SE section of the map. That would put an awful lot of Ogier in that area.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Stedding Shangtai is the southernmost stedding in the Spine of the World, a couple hundred miles almost due north of Mayene, east of the southern end of Haddon Mirk, somewhat south of Stedding Daiting, which effectively shares a latitude with Far Madding.  A Great Stump is a meeting of all Ogier in Randland, so it constitutes the greatest concentration of Ogier since the War of the Hundred Years.  In fact, there is a possibility that this one could include some Seanchan Ogier ... I've been wondering what will happen if the Seanchan Ogier meet up with the Randland Ogier.

 

I think the idea of symmetry in positioning of armies is overrated.  What purpose does it serve?  Just because something looks balanced on a map doesn't make it an effective strategy.  Especially with the re-emergence of gateways ... man, the things I could do tactically with that advantage!

[mb]

I think it might be likely that all hunters would either abandon the search or become dead.

Those who abandon the search, these would be the primary groups:

-rulers of any rank, or those who are their heirs

-channelers (male or female)

-those who join some country's defense

-spouses of those first 3 groups, or of those that already know of Mat's link

The rest would abandon when everyone knows of Mat's link.

 

Mat coming to Illian with the horn, not sure if that would happen.

 

Siuan I think would be the more likely one that would recover the Horn for Mat; mainly because she would have better access and because there would be less suspicion if she shows up with it.

 

[cloglord]

Quoth Faile, in TDR ch 35

 

"There were over a thousand of us, perhaps two, and every one with an idea of where to find the Horn of Valere."

 

Thus also Quoth Faile in TDR ch 35

 

"...but in that crowd, with all the trumpets and drums and cymbals and shouting...A six year old could have taken the oath, and none of us would have noticed."

 

Doesn't sound like conditions were ideal for Faile to be counting the crowd, she herself demonstrates how little attention she was paying to the people around her.

 

Then Quoth Valan Luca in TFoH ch 36

 

"I was in Illian when the Hunter's oaths were given, and there were thousands in the Great Square of Tammaz."

 

Luca seems to estimate the number higher than Faile. 

 

So which is true? Are they both true?  I don't see anything diffinitive in either quote other than there were Lots and lots of people, and a lot of commotion, and nothing to indicate any real estimate of the number of hunters.

 

That doesn't even factor in the Hunters who did not go to Illian to take the oath, but thought that they'd get a head start like the one's that we see in Carhien during TGH.  Or the Illianer youths that would normally be hunting the horn whether there was a Hunt on or not.

 

Nor does it factor in the Squires and footmen that are in the entourages of the Hunters.

 

I'm not so ready to write the hunters off.

[RobertAlexWillis]

"...but in that crowd, with all the trumpets and drums and cymbals and shouting...A six year old could have taken the oath, and none of us would have noticed."

 

Doesn't sound like conditions were ideal for Faile to be counting the crowd, she herself demonstrates how little attention she was paying to the people around her

 

Spotting an individual?  No.  Getting a reasonable estimate?  Yes.  That was sort of weak, cloglord ...

 

"I was in Illian when the Hunter's oaths were given, and there were thousands in the Great Square of Tammaz."

 

Luca seems to estimate the number higher than Faile. 

 

2000-3000 is still "thousands".  And Luca would NEVER exaggerate ANYTHING.  ::)  Seriously man, Valan Luca is not the most reliable of reporters ...

 

So which is true? Are they both true?  I don't see anything diffinitive in either quote other than there were Lots and lots of people, and a lot of commotion, and nothing to indicate any real estimate of the number of hunters.

 

That doesn't even factor in the Hunters who did not go to Illian to take the oath, but thought that they'd get a head start like the one's that we see in Carhien during TGH.  Or the Illianer youths that would normally be hunting the horn whether there was a Hunt on or not.

 

Nor does it factor in the Squires and footmen that are in the entourages of the Hunters.

 

I'm not so ready to write the hunters off.

 

Of course you aren't ... that wouldn't fit your theory.  ;)

 

Look ... even if there were 10,000 Hunters total, they're still scattered, independent minded, unorganized glory hounds, at least from what we've seen.  The idea that they are going to snap into a useful army in any kind of meaningful time frame, or have a meaningful impact when there are already much larger and more effective armies already in the field is ...

is ...

 

...

 

is ....

 

-SIGH-

[lordofsoup]

first they have to get it out of Tar valon

[RobertAlexWillis]

I don't think Verin will have a terribly hard time doing that.

 

[Guest The Thin Inn Keeper]

"...but in that crowd, with all the trumpets and drums and cymbals and shouting...A six year old could have taken the oath, and none of us would have noticed."

 

Doesn't sound like conditions were ideal for Faile to be counting the crowd, she herself demonstrates how little attention she was paying to the people around her

 

Spotting an individual?  No.  Getting a reasonable estimate?  Yes.  That was sort of weak, cloglord ...

Not necessarily.

 

Modern crowd estimation is done using overhead photos, a grid system and a rough estimate of how many people fit in each square. It's impossible to estimate accurately if you're on the ground.

 

Especially if you're short.

 

I'm not saying that there's an army, merely that Faile's estimate will, in all liklihood, be well off the mark. I mean Luca's estimate is at least a 100% increase on Faile's.

[Roxinos]

I also realize that the credibility I'm about to give Faile is debatable, but I feel it's a note worth mentioning.

 

Faile is the daughter of Borderland nobility. Even setting aside her proximity to the higher-ups in the military, she's a Borderlander. Due to that fact, Faile has seen her fair share of armies.

 

She's not any regular person coming up with estimates of a group's size. She's someone with experience in seeing large groups seeing the group's size with something to reference it to.

 

If anything, this lends credibility to her estimates, even if it doesn't necessarily prove the point.

[Bela]

Just walking through through Illian on a normal day you would be seeing two thousand or more people looking around at a crossroads, if you were above the crowd by a few feet. Due to RJ's description of the street width and the crowd densities just walking on an absolutely normal day. With that and the frequency in which we see hunters all over randland, it's safe to assume that there are a LOT more than a few thousand. More likely some tens of thousands. Go back and read about everything concerning Illian in the books, or even another city. Descriptions are usually about a 10-20 spans, which is about 50-70 feet?, on a main or major road. If you packed 70x70 full of people you could fit about 1225 people in there and thats if you gave them two square feet of room, which is not likely in a crowd. Think about a square, and surrounding streets, and rooftops, etc. Descriptions of these major streets most often speak of pushing and shoving and dodging and shifting. You have people from all over randland coming to take this oath. It only takes half a brain to figure out there are many many more than a few thousand. Whether they could be made into an army is another question altogether though. If they caught word that someone had the horn and was bringing it to Illian they might come. Their allegiance is to finding the horn. And as TTIK said, from crowd level you can hardly estimate anything. You would see a few hundred people. Stand on someone's shoulders though, and you will see a few thousand people.

 

As to Roxinos who just posted. I was going to mention Faile an her experience, but no one had mentioned it so I decided not to. Seeing as you have mentioned it now though.... You cannot make estimates if you can't see something. Generals make estimates from far away or high above, where they can see things. You don't see a general sitting with his army in a ravine and making any estimates about his enemy throwing rocks down from the top. However, the general at the top of the ravine could probably guess near to exactly how many there are. He could grid off a 10x10 area with his eyes, count the people in that, and then keeping adding boxes. Her large groups experience is irrelevant.

[Roxinos]

Her large groups experience is irrelevant.

 

You can't say it so offhandedly. Granted, her positioning would certainly affect things, she does have experience, and I doubt that experience is limited to just viewing a population from the crest of a hill. I'm fairly certain she's been among armies as well.

 

I'm not going to get into your estimates as to how many people were/are in Illian or any other city at any one time.

[Guest The Thin Inn Keeper]

Plus, it's mentioned in the books, no idea where, that not all the Hunters took the Oath - i.e. they weren't all in Illian when Faile mentions numbers.

Faile is the daughter of Borderland nobility. Even setting aside her proximity to the higher-ups in the military, she's a Borderlander. Due to that fact, Faile has seen her fair share of armies.

 

She's not any regular person coming up with estimates of a group's size. She's someone with experience in seeing large groups seeing the group's size with something to reference it to.

Yeah. She's used to seeing organized camps, or armies on the march. She's also been close to those with acurate figures regarding the number of men.

 

That doesn't mean that she can estimate the numbers of a crowd in which she was standing.

 

She's credible, but there are other factors.

 

Luca, for example, estimates twice the number that Faile does. Sure, it's Luca, but ignoring his comments entirely is foolhardy. He's also had experience of seeing large numbers of people in crowds.

 

Then there's the issue that not all Hunters were present.

[Roxinos]

Agreed. It lends her credibility, and that's really all I was going for.

[General Cauthon]

Luca, for example, estimates twice the number that Faile does. Sure, it's Luca, but ignoring his comments entirely is foolhardy. He's also had experience of seeing large numbers of people in crowds.

 

Then there's the issue that not all Hunters were present.

 

It doesn't really matter. Even if they were ten thousand Hunters, they still wouldn't even come close to the size necessary to be an army to consider. The Whitecloaks with Galad is only 7000, but they would still destroy an army of 10000 Hunters.

 

When TG is coming, any army smaller than 100 000 will be dogmeat against the Trollocs.(Assuming that the trolloc armies will be consisting of 200 000-300 000 shadowspawn.Not unlikely, since 100 000 was used to raid the mansion Rand stayed at in KoD)

[RobertAlexWillis]

Well, if Faile can't get a good estimate, and the only other estimate if from our dear friend Valan Luca (who makes a living on exaggeration) then we have no way of knowing anything about how many Hunters there are.  So, I guess we can just make up whatever we want.  -sigh-

 

But even if there are 5 times the number maximum that Faile estimated (which I don't believe is likely), all the other objections still apply.  They are scattered to the winds, and temperamentally unlikely to form anything resembling and organized army.  Even at the unlikely estimate of 10,000 persons, and in the extraordinarily unlikely event that they unify themselves, their effectiveness would be limited at best.

 

So, its not likely to happen, and if it did, it wouldn't be likely to make a difference.

[Guest The Thin Inn Keeper]

Well, if Faile can't get a good estimate, and the only other estimate if from our dear friend Valan Luca (who makes a living on exaggeration) then we have no way of knowing anything about how many Hunters there are.  So, I guess we can just make up whatever we want.  -sigh-

Just sayin'...

Even at the unlikely estimate of 10,000 persons, and in the extraordinarily unlikely event that they unify themselves, their effectiveness would be limited at best.

Exactly.

 

However, it does seem as if everyone here is talking about them creating a homogeneous army.... surely they'd be part of something else.

 

Then, perhaps, and I agree that your average Hunter probably isn't easy to deal with, perhaps they could form a useful group.

 

Especially given that Mat is the hornsounder.... maybe they'd be willing to follow him.

So, its not likely to happen, and if it did, it wouldn't be likely to make a difference.

Yeah, but it'd be a nice touch. As someone already said, they've been referenced in the books from the get go. I think it'd be a little disappointing if they didn't play some role.

[cloglord]

That was more my point Ttik.

 

It would be a symbolic coming together of a disparate force, uniting behind a symbol of the light and their probable best chance of victory.

 

The very fact that the hunters are largely affluent members of at least the minor nobility underscores the importance that they assign to the Horn itself.  They were willing to leave their cushy manors and travel the backwaters of the westlands just on the off chance that they could tie their names to the Horn legend.  What would they do if they heard that it had been found?  My guess is that they would go wherever they heard that the horn was or was going.

 

I wouldn't underestimate their abilities in battle though either.  In almost every instance that the hunters have been described they were described as capable fighters.  The one that Faile talks about when we first met her, defeated 4 men at once.  Earlier, Faile's noble heritage was cited to give her some military experience.  If Mat had 2 thousand, militarily experienced Horn hunting, noble, adventurers show up to follow him, surely there would be some in those ranks that could help him to fill out the officer structure that he seems to be struggling with currently in the Band.....

 

It might also help him to organize large numbers of people who have little or no military training into useable groups that could at least attempt to defend themselves against the wave of trollocs that is likely coming.

[RobertAlexWillis]

It would be a symbolic coming together of a disparate force, uniting behind a symbol of the light and their probable best chance of victory.

 

Maybe I'm just prejudiced, but I honestly wouldn't find that appealing at all.

 

The very fact that the hunters are largely affluent members of at least the minor nobility underscores the importance that they assign to the Horn itself.

 

Or it underscores the fact that they want to be famous.  Which has been the obsession of the affluent-but-obscure for ... well ... as long as there have been affluent-but-obscure people.

 

What would they do if they heard that it had been found?  My guess is that they would go wherever they heard that the horn was or was going.

 

Whereas my guess is they would sulk home and nurse their bruised egos.  Given what we've seen of the Hunters, The Hunt for the Horn isn't about finding the Horn for the good of mankind, or following the one who did find it.  Its about getting the personal glory that would come from finding it.  People out for their own glory don't fall in line behind someone else who gets what they were after.

 

I wouldn't underestimate their abilities in battle though either.  In almost every instance that the hunters have been described they were described as capable fighters.

 

Being a "capable fighter" and being an effective soldier are extraordinarily different things.  Armies depend on unit cohesion, coordination, and good communication and intelligence (as in accurate information, not how smart you are).  Thats one reason ill-equipped peasants can actually be the backbone of a very good army; they're good at taking orders.

 

If Mat had 2 thousand, militarily experienced Horn hunting, noble, adventurers show up to follow him, surely there would be some in those ranks that could help him to fill out the officer structure that he seems to be struggling with currently in the Band.....

 

If Mat did that, and Brandon/RJ pretended it would work, I would throw down the book in disgust and maybe not even finish it.  Putting two thousand (or even two hundred) Hunters into the Band's command structure like that would eviscerate it, as an army.

 

It might also help him to organize large numbers of people who have little or no military training into useable groups that could at least attempt to defend themselves against the wave of trollocs that is likely coming.

 

Again ... what we've seen of the Hunters leads me to believe that they would be a horrible choice for that.  Being able to hold your own in a swordfight, order around a squire, and lie about how many Aiel you killed, is definitely not a good qualification for actually leading anyone.

[cloglord]

Being a "capable fighter" and being an effective soldier are extraordinarily different things.  Armies depend on unit cohesion, coordination, and good communication and intelligence (as in accurate information, not how smart you are).  Thats one reason ill-equipped peasants can actually be the backbone of a very good army; they're good at taking orders.

 

I think that in the pressing crush of the presumed trolloc hordes, the ratio how many opponents a single fighter can take out will be a very important one.  We aren't talking about a conventional war with a conventional set of tactics.  Humankind will be vastly outnumbered and there will not be any where to run.  If the trollocs out number you ten to one and you can get to the point where each person can kill 10 trollocs before they die, then you are doing alright.  In those circumstances I think that you can throw the rule book out the window and winnow the orders down to, 1. Kill as many trollocs as you can.  2.  Don't die.  Both of those order are things that even a pompous hunter for the horn can manage.

 

If Mat did that, and Brandon/RJ pretended it would work, I would throw down the book in disgust and maybe not even finish it.  Putting two thousand (or even two hundred) Hunters into the Band's command structure like that would eviscerate it, as an army.

 

except that's been exactly what the Band has been doing all along.  Taking minor nobles, that Mat deems not to be complete idiots and putting them in charge of a larger number of less experienced foot or horse.  Where he has been experienceing problems is when he puts non-nobles in charge.  Of course he has stated that he intends to change how those things work, that nobility doesn't matter, but the simple fact of the matter is that by and large that tier of minor nobles has more command experience than the average soldier, and Mat clearly believes in putting the best and most experienced officers in charge.

 

If Mat gets the horn do you think that he will have more raw recruits to the band than he had before?  Will those recruits need officers?

[MikeRiley]

I don't buy the theory. From all we've seen of the Hunters they're full of themselves. You get them all together after the Horn is announced as found and you'll have a riot to deal with, not a capable and ready army. I can see it now, every one of them killing each other for possession of the Horn of Valere.

 

They also aren't all capable. I can think of one group that are about like Weiramon. Remember the Hunters that got beat up by two aiel? They did catch one (the one Perrin set free) but they lost more than one life getting him. It might not be fair to compare them to an aielman but I believe the numbers were well in their favor. It was all boast and bluff hot air. Taking an oath doesn't make you a hero or a good fighter but it does swell your ego.