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Bashere's suspicious decision


aevogt

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Firstly, I am confused.....

 

Before you can call for proofs from anyone, you first need to demonstrate the validity of your own position.  I repeat my question:  Where does it state in CoT that Bashere and Logain arrived in Cairhien together?

 

At present, I'm not trying to sell any particular conclusion about Bashere's decision other than the conclusion that there is at least one other possibility.  The reason I know that there is at least one other comes in part from the timeline.

 

If Bashere and Logain had joined together before they each made it to Cairhien, they would have found Rand well before the Cleansing, rather than a week or so after.  When Traveling, it doesn't take two weeks to go from point A to B to C.

 

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Other than to say that i never stated that they arrived in Cairhein I'm gonna just repeat my last post. The onus is on you here.

 

Firstly, I am confused. Where is there any evidence in there of anything you suggest? You say that Bashere's decision had nothing to do with Logain...? Why? Logain left to seek Rand the morning before Deira was attacked by someone seeking Bashere's Seal. Bashere, after that--directly after that, and as a result of it--agrees to assist someone in something. Two men, seeking Rand at the same time, and you suggest that Bashere in seeking Rand was speaking to some other person? Why? The onus is on you here buddy. Your earlier comments demand that.

 

No, champ. Logain was seeking Rand, and his first stop would have been Bashere. Bashere was Rand's right hand man, and the closest link the Black Tower had to Rand--he was training the men gathered by the Black Tower who couldn't channel in the Legion of the Dragon. Of course Bashere was his first stop--everyone knew Rand wasn't in Cairhein, and besides, no one in Cairhein stood as close to Rand as Bashere. Logain certainly didn't know of the Aes Sedai with Rand or that their warders remained in Cairhein.

 

Logain approached Bashere, Bashere was resistant, there was an attempt to steal the Seal, Bashere needed to find Rand and so agreed to go with Logain.

 

Seriously dude... you stated as a fact that the above scenario was wrong, so its on you now. Where is the evidence against it? Where do you have Bashere riding into Cairhein two week later and meeting with Logain? Where, in fact, is support for anything you've said?

 

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So in other words, victory is ours.

 

Excellent.

 

No.  As is too often the case, you persist in selling your own private misinformed conclusions as fact.  And, like Jordan ( in this one case ) I'm rather enjoying watching you twist in the wind.

 

If you could move beyond your own anger towards me, and just do what I've asked, and THINK about the situation, you have a more than good enough mind to see what Bashere's decision was really all about.

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Other than to say that i never stated that they arrived in Cairhein I'm gonna just repeat my last post. The onus is on you here.

 

No, champ. Logain was seeking Rand, and his first stop would have been Bashere. Bashere was Rand's right hand man, and the closest link the Black Tower had to Rand--he was training the men gathered by the Black Tower who couldn't channel in the Legion of the Dragon. Of course Bashere was his first stop--everyone knew Rand wasn't in Cairhein, and besides, no one in Cairhein stood as close to Rand as Bashere. Logain certainly didn't know of the Aes Sedai with Rand or that their warders remained in Cairhein.

 

Logain approached Bashere, Bashere was resistant, there was an attempt to steal the Seal, Bashere needed to find Rand and so agreed to go with Logain.

 

Seriously dude... you stated as a fact that the above scenario was wrong, so its on you now. Where is the evidence against it? Where do you have Bashere riding into Cairhein two week later and meeting with Logain? Where, in fact, is support for anything you've said?

 

 

First, this isn't about convincing you.  You've stated what you believe.  You've demonstrated your unwillingness to think further.  Your mind is closed.

 

It IS about persuading others, whose minds may not yet be closed, to think for themselves and not merely swallow anybody else's opinions whole.  Yours, mine or anyone else's.

 

 

 

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The timeline is this,

 

Day 1: Logain gets taims permission to go out "recruiting" (Logains excuse to go looking for Rand)

 

Day 9: Basheres tent is raided, Bashere agrees to the proposal Logain has given him. So, nine days for Logain to find Bashere, approach him in secret, and for Bashere to give it enough thought to be able to make a decision straight away when noticing what the shadow is up to.

 

Day 10: Logain and his entourage arrives in cairhien. The day after Basheres agreement.

 

Day 22: Logain and Bashere arrives at the manor. During these twelve days, Logain has been locating the Warders of the Aes Sedai with Rand, talking them into helping him to locate Rand, and brought Bashere and his 100ish soldiers. Bashere and his entourage would most likely have wanted to slip away from the camp quietly to avoid being noticed, which might take some time.

 

The timeline works perfectly for logain to be the guy Bashere talked to.

 

That bashere would have made some great secret scheme with someone else, and then hooked up with Logain is something that lacks even the hint of a hint.

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I´m guessing bob´s thought is somethinglike the mysterious dude he met was Taim, or possibly a forsaken, and he agreed to find Rand, using Logain for that once that posibility apeared. Then somehow selling the location and causing the attack of the trollocks.

Or maybe not. That tbh sounds kinda silly, so its propably something else.

 

Either way, After a reread of the parts that affekt this situation, I can´t see any other scenario anywhere near as likely as it being Logain.

 

The time before the show up at Rand(day 10->22 in majsju´s timeline), Well, First, traveling to follow the warders bond, they can just say a general direction. Don´t know how far or anything, added to that Rand moved about making it even harder. And after every jump they haveto stand still and wait and learn place before making the next jump.

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First, this isn't about convincing you.  You've stated what you believe.  You've demonstrated your unwillingness to think further.  Your mind is closed.

 

It IS about persuading others, whose minds may not yet be closed, to think for themselves and not merely swallow anybody else's opinions whole.  Yours, mine or anyone else's.

 

My minds perfectly open, but you don't even have an argument. You want to persuade me, answer the questions. Provide a theory, back it up with evidence.

 

So, again, Where is there any evidence in there of anything you suggest? You say that Bashere's decision had nothing to do with Logain...? Why? Logain left to seek Rand the morning before Deira was attacked by someone seeking Bashere's Seal. Bashere, after that--directly after that, and as a result of it--agrees to assist someone in something. Two men, seeking Rand at the same time, and you suggest that Bashere in seeking Rand was speaking to some other person? Why? The onus is on you here buddy. Your earlier comments demand that.

 

No, champ. Logain was seeking Rand, and his first stop would have been Bashere. Bashere was Rand's right hand man, and the closest link the Black Tower had to Rand--he was training the men gathered by the Black Tower who couldn't channel in the Legion of the Dragon. Of course Bashere was his first stop--everyone knew Rand wasn't in Cairhein, and besides, no one in Cairhein stood as close to Rand as Bashere. Logain certainly didn't know of the Aes Sedai with Rand or that their warders remained in Cairhein.

 

Logain approached Bashere, Bashere was resistant, there was an attempt to steal the Seal, Bashere needed to find Rand and so agreed to go with Logain.

 

Seriously dude... you stated as a fact that the above scenario was wrong, so its on you now. Where is the evidence against it? Where do you have Bashere riding into Cairhein two week later and meeting with Logain? Where, in fact, is support for anything you've said?

 

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Where are you getting that timeline, Maj?

 

I've seen two, so far.  They differ slightly but neither support an 8 day gap between Logain getting permission to leave and the attack on Bashere's tent.

 

http://www.users.bigpond.com/steven_cooper/tl1000.htm#book10

 

http://www.sevenspokes.com/chronology/3rd-ne-v10-cot.html

 

 

According to the first one of theese, compared to majsju´s, its

Timeline  -  Majsju  - Event.

feb 23    -  day 1    - Logain gains permission

Marsh 03  -  Day 9    - Bashere agrees 

Marsh 04  -  Day 10  - Logain arrives in Cairhien(possbly getting "the extra ppl" bashere mentioned(aka, the warders)?

Marsh 16  -  Day 22  - Logain and Bashere arrives at Rand´s mansion.

 

 

Seem to fit rather well tbh.

 

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A big part of the problem in figuring out what is actually going on with the situation in general and Bashere in particular is because Crossroads of Twilight and Winter's Heart overlap in the way that they do.  And, that there was three years between printing the two books.  When reading CoT, it's really easy to forget the overlap, and how events in the two books intertwine.

 

To review a couple, but not all, of the salient points from WH:

 

Approximately one week before CoT begins, we have the big Forsaken kaffe klatsch, where Cyndane reveals that Rand has the access keys to the CK and plans to use them to Cleanse saidin.  They're all astounded.  Osan'gar and Aran'gar seem the most badly shaken.  You could even call it panicked.  Moridin's orders coming out of that meeting are to capture, or if necessary, kill Rand when he uses the CK.

 

Approximately five days after that, Slayer kills the wrong people in Rand's old rooms at the inn.  Based on their reactions above, my guess is that Osan'gar or Aran'gar is Slayer's patron.  Probably Aran'gar because of the lengths to which the patron goes to keep his/her identity secret.  Why them more than the others?  The appearance of Cyndane and her name's very pointed reminder that there is only one chance at transmigration.  Despite their overweening egos, all of the Forsaken are utterly certain that Rand could kill any of them with the CK.  Far better, from their viewpoints, to kill him before he is actually channeling with the CK.

 

At the same time, the gholam shows up in Ebou Dar.  Certainly after Mat, but probably after Perrin or Rand as well if either should happen to be there.  Another panic reaction by somebody on Team Dark.

 

Finally, Rand et al kill all of the assassins he can find and leave Far Madding.  After retrieving Callandor, they Travel to Shadar Logoth and begin the Cleansing.

 

While much of this has been going on, CoT begins, and the events in the Prologue including Bashere's decision occur.

 

Both timeline sites admit, upfront, that they find inconsistencies in how the events are portrayed, and that the days they give for the overlap period in particular are their best guess based on the best data they can develop.  I'm not going to fault either of them for that.  I too think it is simply impossible to pin any of those events down to an exact day.  All we know for sure is that WH is chronological.  It's a sequence of events.  CoT, on the other hand, has each "major section" beginning on the same ( but unspecified ) day.  Within those major sections ( however you define a major section ) there is also no guarantee that the events are sequential - they may jump back and forth in time as locale changes within a section.

 

Karede's POV in KOD says that it's been nine days since Tuon was kidnapped when we fist meet him.  Seven Spokes states this:

NOTE: The reference to Tuon having disappeared nine/ten nights ago is at odds with events in the chapters before and after Chapter 4. Chapters 3 and 5 both take place on the day that saidin is cleansed, which is five days after Tuon was captured by Mat. The only logical solution is that Chapter 4 has been intentionally placed out of chronological order.

 

Perhaps it's an editing mistake.  Perhaps it's that time itself has become maleable.  I'm not going to try to guess.  The fact is that two sites who have dedicated themselves to constructing accurate timelines for the events in the books are confused by the timing of events in the last few books.  I don't think any of us will do better than they have.  That very confusion as it pertains to KOD is important because all of CoT that we're discussing takes place during that brief interval.

 

Thus, exactly how much overlap there is between the two books is really uncertain.  The two things that are certain is that Logain arrives in Cairhien before the Cleansing begins.  Some days later, he and Bashere arrive at the Manor after the Cleansing is over and after Rand and Nynaeve have had time to recover.  It can be equally certain that if Logain and Bashere had the Warders as a guide while the Cleansing was going on, they would have had no trouble finding Rand in a single jump.  Thus the only conclusion that can be reached is that Bashere arrived in Cairhien separate from Logain with an unknown number of days between.

 

That brings up the question of whether once having gone into Cairhien Logain would have been allowed to leave again.  Especially given that he had committed the sin ( there really isn't any other way to describe it from an AS POV ) of having bonded AS.  I say no.

 

One of his Asha'man might have been able to sneak away to contact Bashere, but that too seems unlikely.  Attempting to Gate out without permission would have likely provoked a battle with Cairhien's resident AS, and Logain seems smart enough not to risk that.  Just leaving town and Gating from there is equally unlikely.  Those women might be horrified by Logain and what he has done, but they know Cadsuane, if nobody else would skin them alive for letting him get away.  So, my best judgement is that he and his party were stuck there until Bashere showed up.  Bashere's willingness to include Logain absolves them of allowing a False Dragon, who may hold a grudge, anywhere near Rand.

 

They each have something the other needs.  Bashere can secure the release of the Warders to act as bloodhounds, and Logain can provide the Gateways to get both of them to Rand SOONEST.  Therefore, their brief marriage of convenience.

 

That is how I conclude that Bashere was referring to something else entirely when he made the decision he did after Deira was attacked.

 

 

 

 

 

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How do you propose they stop him Gating anywhere? He's got too many men with him, and women they can compel to assist them. There's not enough Aes Sedai in Cairhien to halt them, period. And why would the Wise Ones get involved on the side of the Aes Sedai?

 

It's pure spec, Bob, and not backed up by the text.

 

The whole Logain theory makes even more sense if you consider that a) Bashere is one of the few likely to know where Rand is, and b) That Rand tells us he left orders to be left alone. Bashere is bucking orders as a command decision.

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The time before the show up at Rand(day 10->22 in majsju´s timeline), Well, First, traveling to follow the warders bond, they can just say a general direction. Don´t know how far or anything, added to that Rand moved about making it even harder. And after every jump they have to stand still and wait and learn place before making the next jump.

 

When traveling to a place you automatically learn the place you've traveled to, so there's no need to take time between jumps beyond figuring out what direction and distance.  Beyond that we can be fairly certain that that trip was made with only two gateways and completed in the same day it was begun.

 

CoT Chapter 23 Ornaments:

    "Bartol and Rashan do be coming," Erian announced loudly, agitation thickening Illian in her speech.  Those were her two Warders, left behind in Cairhien.  "I did no send for them, but someone did Travel with them.  An hour ago, I felt them suddenly closer, and just now, closer again.  They are coming toward us now."

    "My Vitalien, he also is coming closer," Sarene said.  "He will be here in a few hours, I think."

 

So I think we can safely say that the time between Logain arriving in Cairhien and Traveling with the left-behind Warders to Rand was spent locating the Warders, convincing them to help (didn't their Aes Sedai tell them to stay?), and then arranging whatever else needed arranging.  Incidentally who was in charge of the Warders?  Were they still being kept by the Aiel?  It's also possible that the original trip to Cairhien was just in looking for clues to where Rand was and then they discovered about the Warders and used them as compasses.  I think it more likely that Bashere knew about the Warders being there though who knows if he knew they could be used to track their Aes Sedai.  Being the bond-holder of two Aes Sedai I can't imagine that Logain didn't know the bond could be used that way so I imagine that he thought of that as soon as he knew about the Warders.

 

Bob.  You're saying that Bashere was making a deal with someone other than Logain and that he then rode to Cairhien where he met Logain and Traveled to find Rand with the Aes Sedai/Ash'aman/Warders.  Assuming that's correct, and going by the time-line you linked, that means Bashere and his men made it to Caihrien in 13 days.  Less if you assume he didn't start his ride to Cairhien until the next morning (likely given his wife was just stabbed) and that he spent time in Cairhien once he got there to get the Warders released.  In LoC it takes 24 days between when the Two Rivers men leave Caemlyn and when they meet up with Perrin.  If we take off some time for the fact that they were north of Cairhien then there's still almost a week's difference in how long it would have taken them to get to Cairhien vs. the amount of time you're giving Bashere's men.  Fast riding for a large group of men.

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I'm gonna let this one simmer for awhile longer.

 

It isn't difficult to work out.  Everybody here can do it as well.  IF they truly think about the entire situation rather than just settle for the first convenient conclusion that suggests itself.

 

Besides, everybody learns more when they think it through for themselves.

 

If it isnt so difficult to work out, how about you spare those of us who frankly can't be bothered and aren't that bothered about it the effort? I'm quite happy with Logain, I'll wait for aMoL to have it clarified. Otherwise, I'm really not going to lose any sleep on it. I'd far sooner know who killed Asmodean.

 

I'm certainly not spending more of my time reading boring (and quite frankly, extremely childish and pointless) arguments when you could simply wipe the smug smile from your face and give us your theory.

 

As mother used to say, no-one likes a knowitall.

 

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Yes, it is fast riding.  But, they're elite Saldaen Horse.

 

Remember, they began their whole little odyssey in pursuit of Taim after he escaped.  Yet, Bashere, according to his own account arrived in Caemlyn about three weeks ahead of when Taim finally gets there.  ( He says he'd been cooling his heels for about a week attempting to get his troops presence vetted before Rand kills Rahvin.  Taim arrives about two weeks later. )

 

It'd be a hard ride, but I think they could do it.

 

And, yes, both Logain and Bashere went to Cairhien because that was the last place that Rand was known to be, not just rumored to be.  Neither had any idea where he actually was.

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trakand -

 

If you're not willing to do some thinking for yourself, you're really wasting your time with this series of books.  Jordan challenges us to THINK about what's going on at every turn.  He kept challenging us to think with nearly every appearance he made and every question he answered.  He especially challenged us to think with his infamous, "intuitively obvious to the most casual observer" line.

 

If you're satisfied with the conclusion you have drawn about Bashere's decision, then this thread isn't for you, and there is no necessity to keep reading it.

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Deductions, not assumptions, Maj.  Assumptions are more your department than mine.

 

First, you assumed Bashere and Logain arrived in Cairhien together.  When that was shown to be false, you then decided to assume that Logain somehow found a way to leave Cairhien and locate Bashere.  From there I'm not sure where your assumptions take you.

 

What the books says happened is that Logain went to Cairhien.    What the books say happens every time an Aes Sedaia learns that Logain has bonded other AS is enormous anger and outrage.  From that it's a fair deduction that the Cairhien AS were outraged.  Logain isn't just a False Dragon whose allegiance to Rand is more than suspect, he's an escapee from the Tower.  Even worse, still, he has somehow been Healed of Stilling.  From all of that, it's a fair deduction that they are not about to cooperate with him nor allow him to go anywhere else.

 

Then several days later, Bashere, his honor guard, Logain and his group, plus the Warders belonging to some of the AS Rand has with him arrive at the Manor where Rand is staying.

 

The timelines from two different sites show that enough time elapsed between Logain's arrival in Cairhien, and everybody's arrival at the Manor for Bashere's party to ride to Cairhien, and for the two groups to join together there.  Since so much time elapsed, it's a fair deduction that the two groups had no contact with each other until Bashere reached Cairhien.

 

Thus it is that the facts from the books that don't support the contention that the man Bashere refers to in conjunction with his decision can only be Logain.

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No, it doesn't conclusively- but given that we have reason for it to be Logain, and no reason for it to be anyone else, much less equally strong suggestions it's someone else, leaves Logain as the default candidate. It's scientific reasoning. There's never 100% certainty, but if you get reasonable certainty it is something, with no indication whatsoever it's anything else, it's a fairly safe conclusion. You simply need to be willing to re-evaluate whenever there's new evidence.

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Now, all of that is something I can agree with.

 

It is reasonable to assume that Logain is who Bashere was referring to.  But, is it correct?  Have we really examined all of the evidence?

 

In order to get to the bottom of what that decision is, and who the man is, we have to start putting Bashere and his actions into a more complete context.  There may be more going on here than appears on the surface.  In order to do that, we need to go back and look at Bashere from the beginning until he makes that decision.

 

I've thought of one possible scenario.  There may be others.  Since there could be more possibilities than I've thought of, I asked for other people to think about the situation as well.  To re-examine the evidence, and see if any other possibility than Logain might suggest itself to them.

 

And, I really want people to do that.  I also don't want to taint anything you guys may conclude by stating my idea first.  I want you to start as fresh as you possibly can and allow the evidence to take you where it leads for yourselves.

 

My suggestion would be to ask yourself the following two questions:

If it isn't Logain, who could it be?  Why that person?

 

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I've thought of one possible scenario.  There may be others.  Since there could be more possibilities than I've thought of, I asked for other people to think about the situation as well.  To re-examine the evidence, and see if any other possibility than Logain might suggest itself to them.

 

And, I really want people to do that.  I also don't want to taint anything you guys may conclude by stating my idea first.  I want you to start as fresh as you possibly can and allow the evidence to take you where it leads for yourselves.

 

My suggestion would be to ask yourself the following two questions:

If it isn't Logain, who could it be?  Why that person?

 

 

If that's what you were after then that's cool, and thank you for finally stating that your thoughts are a "possible scenario" vs. being absolutely correct.  However the way you've phrased every response to this has been, "You're wrong because you're too stupid to think about it, but I'm smarter and know the correct answer."  Saying other members are stupid, even sideways, isn't usually a great way to go about making them weigh your thoughts.  There's nothing wrong with thinking of alternate scenarios but the absence of clear-cut confirming evidence towards a theory (In this case the It-was-Logain theory) doesn't automatically mean that it's incorrect.  If you present something other than "think about it" then maybe people will.

 

To this point I have an alternate theory.  It wasn't Logain..... it was one of his Ash'aman acting as a messenger.  Why a 'messenger'?  Because Logain is busy preparing to find Rand and get him to take care of Taim.  Why the secrecy?  Because he's pretty sure Taim is a bad guy (even if he hasn't come right out and said he's a Darkfriend) and doesn't want one of his cronies to find out about what he's up to and figures that maybe Taim's men are keeping tabs on him.

 

As to Logain being kept against his will in Cairhien before Bashere gets there I seriously doubt that he could be.  IIRC he has 25 Ash'aman with him, plus 51 Aes Sedai bonded to them.  I can't remember how many sisters there were back in Cairhien but I doubt that: A) they would be able to overwhelm his party to the point of holding him captive (Logain is nearly as strong as Rand and it took 13 to take him), or B) that they would even think there would be any difficulties taking them until they tried and got their asses handed to them during the attempt.  The BT has standing orders to not harm any Aes Sedai unless attacked so no trouble would have been started by Logain's side.  I imagine he had the bonded sisters talk to whatever sister's were in the city to diffuse anything before it started, or having faced the Ash'aman before the sisters in the city thought twice before doing anything.

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I thought there were only 6 black coats and whatever AS were bonded with those.  Logain was one, and the guy who was with Loial...  oh well...

 

If it wasn't Logain, then think a bout who it would be.  Let us look at some reasons someone would need to ask Bashere to go instead of just leaving themselves.  Lets look:

 

1) Would have to be someone who was in Caemlyn but is now in Cairhien or with the group.

2) This person would also not have access to someone who can Travel but have great need to be in Cairhien. 

3) This person would also have to have a reason to ask Bashere to come along instead of just going alone. This could be for protection or because they need to find Rand.

4) Would have to be someone who he would not want to mention by name due to it being dangerous.

 

Only other people I could think of was possibly one of the AS from Elaida's group, but that is really stretching it.  When do AS ask anything?  They would try to bully him into it.

 

Logain really is the only one who fits.  I think sometimes people want to see an elephant when it's obvious they are looking at a giraffe (whoa... qualify as a Lini saying?).  It sort of reminds me of the Harry Potter gurus who came up with all these wild theories about little things that never came to light.

 

 

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OK, icspots.  Good alternative theory.

 

The question isn't whether the Sisters could have kept him from leaving it's whether Logain would have been foolish enough to test that.  It's also whether the AS in Cairhien ( all of whom have sworn fealty to Rand ) would see it as anything other than their sworn duty to try to stop Logain whether they really could stop him or not.

 

My bet is they would see it that way, and that Logain wouldn't push the issue.  He set out on his mission to try to solve what he sees as a developing problem, not start an even bigger one.

 

A second issue that you raise is whether the resident AS would put any credence in what Logain's AS had to say?  All AS who have not been bonded see Asha'man bonding AS as an abomination.  Given how they behave toward any AS who has been stilled, I don't think, "I didn't have a choice, but it's really OK." would carry any weight with them.  Aes Sedai are ALWAYS supposed to be the ones in control of any situation.  Despite their own defeats and somewhat involuntary fealty to Rand, they would see Logain's AS as weak and deranged.  Besides, Logain's AS don't know why Logain wants to find Rand, or what he intends to do if/when he does.  They don't really have any way to allay suspicions.  In fact, Logain may not have even let them know he was seeking Rand at all.

 

Even a, "We have to go out recruiting." plea wouldn't work.  Saidin is still tainted.  Men who channel go mad and destroy all order and decency.  Helping the BT to grow is not something any Cairhien AS would allow unless Rand himself ordered it, and Rand isn't there.

 

In short, once Logain gets to Cairhien, he's stuck until Bashere shows up.

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