What's with the population bust?

[Great Lord of the Dark]

Is it because people aren't just "reproducing" as fast as people die? I can't figure out a clear explanation. After the Breaking, the population rose and civilization was rebuilt somewhat. Then after the Trolloc Wars the population once again went down, but it later went up again. Why is it that now, after the Hundred Year war, that the number of people in Randland has dropped?

[Shaidar]

It seems that there is a very long-term secular trend for the population to decline.

 

This has only ever being witnessed in two types of society:

 

a) environmental collapse, as happened for example with the Mayan civilization (ancient Sumer and medieval Persia, which dessicated after the Mongols destroyed its irrigation systems).

 

b) modern societies with free access to reliable contraceptives and a high degree of gender equality (can already be observed in east/central Europe and Japan).

 

Plagues and famines, by the way, while they can kill large percentages of people, don't permanently drive the quantity down. Recovery can be pretty quick.

 

Now I don't think that anywhere we've read about has really had an environmental collapse, nor is there a continuous series of plague that keep the population pressed down (as happened in Europe from the Black death in 1350 to 1500).

 

They also have access to folk contraceptives. While gender equality is greater than historically in the WoT, it still lags and I suspect it's more of an upper class thing anyway.

 

So, interesting questions...I can think of two reasons only.

 

1. Notice the Westland population is about 50mn people. However, notice also the prevalence of large cities which seem to contain 0.5-2mn people - Tanchico, Tear, Illian, Bandar Eban, Caemlyn, Cairhien, Tar Valon, Ebou Dar. So the urbanization rate is very high in those countries, as compared historically - maybe 40-60%.

 

Historically, in the early modern period lightly urbanized areas like Germany, Poland and Russia displayed the highest growth rates, while Italy and Spain - highly urbanized - remained largely stagnant. It's a well known fact that the mortality rate in a pre-modern city was much higher than in the countryside and well above its birth rate.

 

Perhaps because of their high level of urbanization, mortality is also high, and hence the populations of countries like Illian, Tear, Andor, Cairhien, Tarabon, Arad Doman, etc are in stasis.

 

COUNTERPOINT: on the other hand, Randlanders seem to have a sense of hygiene which was definitely lacking in our history.

 

2. Note that the lightly urbanized countries tend to be the Borderlanders. In fact, they seem to be quite fecundant (sp?). (In a way this reflects the early modern period demographic fertility map of north/south Europe). Let's assume their rate of natural increase, is, say, 3% per year and they have a population of 8mn (so +240,000 ppl / annum).

 

But...they've got the Blight. Assume there are 80,000 Trollocs. Assume they all want a new blade every year. That's -80,000 ppl. Oh and the Trollocs kill ppl on their raids, eat them, etc, so say they kill two humans for every one they take captive up to SG.

 

So you get zero population growth for the Borderlands. Very environmentally friendly.

 

In conclusion...

 

1. The major southern powers see negligible population increase because they are highly urbanized. The excess birth rate of the country is consumed by the high mortality of the cities.

 

2. The Borderlander populations are trimmed by continuous Trolloc raids.

 

3. The carrying capacity of the Aiel Waste is very small. They keep their numbers down by continuous internecine conflicts with each other.

[Baldar]

The invention of Heartleaf tea.

[CUBAREY]

Quote:

 

In conclusion...

 

1. The major southern powers see negligible population increase because they are highly urbanized. The excess birth rate of the country is consumed by the high mortality of the cities.

 

2. The Borderlander populations are trimmed by continuous Trolloc raids.

 

3. The carrying capacity of the Aiel Waste is very small. They keep their numbers down by continuous internecine conflicts with each other.

 

 

 

This does not explain the loss of whole nations. In Arthur Hawkwing's time you would travel trough populated territory from the Aryth Ocean to the Waste. Now there are large areas that are totally depopulated. As referenced by Igtar in the third book and alluded to by the Orge "Elder" when looking at maps to show Rand where the Gates to the Ways are situated; humanity as a whole seems to be in retreat.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I personally believe it is the result of the Dark One's long term light (but increasing) touch on the world.  Elayne, after she becomes pregnant, is grateful for Min's viewing because so many babies are stillborn or born deformed.  When Min is discussing the good ta'veren effects of Rand balancing the bad ones in Cairhien, she specifically brings up the fact that there were no stillbirths or deformed babies while he was there.

 

Yes, I know that in any pre-industrial culture, infant mortality and disease are higher.  But the population trend, in combination with those comments, makes it seem to me that something else is going on.  When populations experience little pressure (and there is plenty of open land in Randland) they almost always expand.  Randland isn't, and its a phenomenon that has been increasing the closer Tarmon Gai'don comes.

[Theandrin]

Personally I have long agreed with Roberts theory on this, however there is one thing that doesn't quite add up.

 

What about Seanchan? Why have the Seanchan lands become so heavily populated? Is it simple because they are farther away from the DO's influence? Or could it be because they are farther from Shayol Ghul?

 

[RobertAlexWillis]

Or could it be because they are farther from Shayol Ghul?

 

Thats what I think.

[Shaidar]

In that case, shouldn't the Borderlands have collapsed first, instead of Almoth, Haddon, Maredo, Kintara, etc, which are all quite a bit further from SG than, say, Shienar.

[icspots]

In that case, shouldn't the Borderlands have collapsed first, instead of Almoth, Haddon, Maredo, Kintara, etc, which are all quite a bit further from SG than, say, Shienar.

 

Except the borderlands had a reason (instilled in them from birth) to exist in order to fight the blight.  Obviously it's taken it's toll and the blight moves further and further south, but that could be why they've held on longer.

[Guest leebarr]

when things grow calmer in a few years people will be mateing like rabbits. right now they have other things on thier minds

[Great Lord of the Dark]

or the Great Lord (Dark One) could take over the world. I also think that the stillborns and deformed babies have a lot to do with it, but I also think it's just that as time goes on, society seems to be getting worse. More crimes, more murders, and all that. It seems that Randland would eventually collaspe even if the Dark One wasnt involved. Or i could be wrong and everybody else is right.....a dreadful thought, dont you think?

[Blackmoore]

It seems to me that Randland hasn't recovered from the collapse of Hawkwing's empire and the resulting 300 years of chaos.  That would also explain the difference between Seanchan and Randland.

 

The population of Western Europe collapsed in the wake of the Western Roman Empire's collapse and dissolution, and probably didn't recover until the late middle ages. 

[Majsju]

 

The population of Western Europe collapsed in the wake of the Western Roman Empire's collapse and dissolution, and probably didn't recover until the late middle ages. 

 

Well, we had a plague or two to help with that...And lack of food, during a quite long period of the Drak Ages, the weather was colder than usual, causing quite a lack of food.

[Luckers]

As I recall there was a plague in Randland just prior to the Aiel War. But in any case I agree that the population decrease hasn't followed natural patterns.

[Great Lord of the Dark]

what affect did the Dark One have on the population again?

[Achmed]

Can anyone say Baby Boom?

 

After the Rand Landers win (and I'm assuming they will win - not that it matters as the books we'll be over but - I mean, this IS Dragonmount) I think there will be a baby boom like the US and other participants in WWII saw after WWII.

 

Just look at Mat, Rand, and Perrin.

 

Mat has to have children for the Empire.

 

Rand already has twins on the way, Aviendha will have children.

 

Perrin, well, anyone really think that Faile isn't going to get busy?

[Great Lord of the Dark]

unless she makes perrin unfertile first.....that's a bummer

[PrinceOfRavens]

THAT would put the fox in the henyard(sp) for sure :P i think bashere wouldnt kill Perrin then, but Faile haha

[aevogt]

Saldean women do have something of a reputation.

[Great Lord of the Dark]

no more sa-shara for him or whatever that dance was