Death in the Artic - Mafia Game!

[Talya]

Well out of the two I've seen more of Kryos than I have of FDM, though what I have seen of her is that she plays pretty well too. So I think this is quite evenly matched as far as how well they play...but thats from my point of view.

 

So I will go for [glow=red,2,300]Kryos[/glow] onlt becasue

I have seen a little more of him than I have FDM.

[Toy and Minion]

I'm going to go with [glow=red,2,300]FDM[/glow] as well.  Not to like, totally metagame here, but she was awesome in the Aiel game and I just think she knows what she's doing.

[Vemynal]

Yeah, at this point i think it best we decide between these two :P

 

current vote count:

FDM(6): Thorum, barm, vemy, leelou, Wes, Dsage

Kryos(4): alys, Kryos, Dark, Talya

 

nonvoters: Twitch, Sirayn, Mr. Soy Boyo, Far Dareis Mai, Danya, Thorum, Safir

 

FDM, if you vote for yourself you may help end day 1 just a weee bit quicker :P

 

and anyone know how many votes to elect a captain? I just checked and couldn't find it. since theres 15 of us 8 would be a safe bet.

[Sirayn]

I'm not going to vote for either candidate but I want to explain my reasoning again rather than just not show up.

 

Personally, I've had the privilege of playing a big game with Far Dareis Mai and I have a very high opinion of her as a mafia player. I observed Kryos at work in a recent game and again I think pretty well of him. Their mafia skill has absolutely nothing to do with their team. Zip. Zero. Nothing. One or both could be evil as far as I know. In fact, the fact that people are getting behind them both as candidates is a black mark in my view, because the evil team have a pretty big incentive to get one of their people up there.

 

In short, I don't know their alignment and I'm leaning toward suspicious for the pair of them, and I certainly don't trust either of them with a double night ability, so I withhold my vote.

[Alys Kinch]

I agree with that Sira, except that I think it's exacerbating the situation.

 

I'd rather be proactive than reactive. I'd like a hand in who has a double action in order to try to set up someone who is generally trustworthy yet at the same time someone who has a balance between excellent skill that will be used well and poor skill that exposes the logic flaws.

[Dark Justice]

Well. If people really want me, Ill take it. But Id rather have someone else do it. So unless anything changes Ill [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]

 

And then, to get someone voted I go [glow=red,2,300]FDM[/glow].

[Sirayn]

Unfortunately it appears that we're going to get a captain whether I want one or not. The prospect of an evil captain running the game over my dead body - literally - does concern me so I want to get my thoughts on paper in case anything terminal happens to me.

 

If there is a double kill tonight, lynch the captain immediately.

 

This is not a kneejerk reaction. I genuinely think this is the best possible response. Here's why! These are the scenarios as I see them in increasing order of likeliness ...

 

1. There is a second kill because an innocent used their kill. Discount this possibility. A vigilante is not going to use their kill on night one unless an evil player confessed on thread or something equally drastic. This is only a feasible scenario if an evil player was one of the two night kills. In this case, personally I'd want the vigilante to reveal - either you get a counter claim, in which case in a game with no coroner finder you need to lynch them both, or there's no counter claim and the vigilante is accepted as innocent. He may die that night, but he is (a) only a roleless innocent now, (b) a healer target, and © could stop a bullet on behalf of another good role.

 

2. There is a second kill because the evil team had an additional kill anyway. This is entirely possible, but that's a risk you have to take. Don't take this as an excuse if there's a second kill. If they had an additional kill they could use at any time they certainly wouldn't use it on night one.

 

3. There is a second kill because the captain is evil and therefore the night kill was doubled. This is by far the most likely scenario in my view and merits immediate lynching of the captain. In fact, decaptain them by the three-vote method so they can't use their second vote to protect themselves and then lynch them. And then think about their partners.

 

If there is no double kill tonight ...

 

Again in increasing order of likeliness:

 

1. The evil team withheld their second kill out of fear that the evil captain would be lynched. This has a double benefit: firstly, no extra kill, and secondly, the innocents dictated the game. The evil team were forced to adjust to our actions rather than t'other way about.

 

2. A second kill was blocked. I consider this less likely than there being no second kill because blocking a kill is always a gamble. Particularly on night one, there's little real consensus about the obvious healing targets, so the chances of a blocked kill are low.

 

3. The captain is innocent. This is the most probable reason for a no second kill. But don't get too attached to this one.

 

By the way, if there is a recruiter out there, I (a) hate you with a passion and (b) hope you have no partners to vote you in.  :-[

[DPR]

The mod has warned against not electing a captain as he'll do it for us, and I see no way of learning anyone's alignment short of a finder reveal that we believe. Thus I agree with Alys, and would rather be pro-active. Any player could be Mafia, but the law of averages says we'll pick an innocent and FDM did not lobby for this the way that Kryos did (even though it did have a sacrificial air about it...). I don't have a better choice other than just picking a quiet player at random, which I'm not a big fan of.

 

As far as what to do if we have multiple kills goes, I was a night vig in the nuthouse and could kill every night, so that is at least one other possibility.

 

 

[Sirayn]

I'd rather be proactive than reactive. I'd like a hand in who has a double action in order to try to set up someone who is generally trustworthy yet at the same time someone who has a balance between excellent skill that will be used well and poor skill that exposes the logic flaws.

 

I'm also big on being proactive rather than reactive, but I consider deliberate no-voting to be a proactive choice. I haven't bandwagoned or put down a random vote or followed my hypothetical evil partners' suggestion or just let everyone else sort it out - I've chosen not to vote because I've considered the situation to the best of my ability and I think that is the best action I can take. Just saying.  8)

[DPR]

 

So you are cool with letting the mod come through with his threat? Sort of a "call his bluff" move? Could be interesting.

[Sirayn]

As far as what to do if we have multiple kills goes, I was a night vig in the nuthouse and could kill every night, so that is at least one other possibility.

 

I expect you're right - I don't remember that part of the game offhand - but I hope I don't sound excessively paranoid when I say that I was expecting evil players to have excuses prepared for why a second kill went through when their partner was captain. ;)

[DPR]

 

Or just making sure that if an innocent captian is chosen, that they will be killed immediatley becasue someone already knows that a double kill will take place. Hmmm. Could be looked at a few different ways.

[Sirayn]

So you are cool with letting the mod come through with his threat? Sort of a "call his bluff" move? Could be interesting.

 

Here's what ilgross said:

 

I think that electing a Captain is really in your own interests. It reveals more infomation. You could elect no Capatin I *suppose*, but then I might just be mean and make a random person captain or other nasty outcomes....

 

BTW While the Captain does have double powers, (s)he doesn't have to be a leader of the boat. Double votes is good, but you can always ignore whatever they say. I don't think inexpirence should be a barrier to Captaincy.

 

I'm going to discard his observer's views on the effectiveness of the captain role. I disagree with him and he's not playing so he isn't sharing my perspective. Here's the important section:

 

If we elect no captain, "I might just be mean and make a random person captain or other nasty outcomes".

 

Firstly, we don't know what consequence would ensue. ilgross says that he might make a random person captain. Or he might not. We don't know.

 

Secondly, if we could ensure that a person was chosen at random - and ilgross seems to know his way round the randomiser function on a spreadsheet - this would actually be preferable to choosing one ourselves. Any super big evil voting block doesn't mean a thing if the captain is chosen totally at random.

 

So from my point of view the one consequence ilgross proposes is actually better for the innocents than our current situation. So yes, I'd call his bluff - and with enthusiasm. ;)

[Sirayn]

Or just making sure that if an innocent captian is chosen, that they will be killed immediatley becasue someone already knows that a double kill will take place. Hmmm. Could be looked at a few different ways.

 

If the evil team has one additional kill, separate from their regular night kill, they aren't going to use it on night one. You may not be thinking ahead to the endgame right now but they've got far more information than you do - if you're innocent, of course - so they'll be thinking way ahead.

 

If the evil team has more than one additional night kill ... let's see. In the scenario you mentioned earlier when you were a kind of innocent killer with one kill per night, this gives them two kills per night. Now let's imagine one of them becomes captain. This gives them four kills per night. If you're pitching a fit at this idea, we're on the same page. ;)

 

In summary ... one additional kill won't be used on night one and more than one doesn't make sense.

[Thorum]

Unfortunately it appears that we're going to get a captain whether I want one or not.

 

That's called democracy, Siry

 

@mod: does an evil captain HAVE to kill twice?

 

This was typed before Siry's post of 11:45 pm

[DPR]

I had considered kicking the vote back to the mod and we do have a much higher chance of choosing an innocent captain randomly. I'll go with that.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Unvote: FDM[/glow]   - [glow=red,2,300]Vote: No Vote[/glow]

 

 

 

[Alys Kinch]

Seems to me that Far is going to be captain... Hey Twitch, Safir, I would hate to see you guys go as the least informant persons on the board, at the moment. Speak up about the captain. Something, anything?

 

DPR: Far didn't lobby the way it has been made out that Kryos did. I don't think he lobbied so much as some people are making it seem. It seems more likely that he finds himself more trustworthy than the other polar opinion and thus voted for himself. Wouldn't you if you had support?

 

Got caught by responses... What Sira says actually merits some thought. If ilgross thought we were counting on a randomized captain, do you think he would use it though?

 

Damn it. Let me send something!

[Sirayn]

That's called democracy, Siry

 

One of my favourite people would like you to know:

 

Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.

 

;)

[Sirayn]

Forgot to notice this part:

 

@mod: does an evil captain HAVE to kill twice?

 

I'd also like to know whether an evil captain can defer his kill - and particularly whether he can defer it to a night when he is no longer captain ...

[Toy and Minion]

Hmmm...I had temporarily forgotten about that post ilgross made.  I've been fiddling with the idea of going with a no vote, but actually seeing it in written form is helpful.  For now I will [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow] and think matters through some more.

[Alys Kinch]

Sira, did you catch my question?

 

And to your last, I don't think it would be fair to defer a kill. Elect to not use one, certainly, but not to defer it.

[DPR]

Alys: I've seen Kryos play and I'm betting that he's just trying help. But you never know, so best to go with the averages. And I don't think the mod would intentionally influence tha game because that could turn into one sticky mess. You can always back up random decisions, but you don't want to get caught playing favorites, etc.

 

And the captain might not have the power to kill at all, right?

 

 

[Sirayn]

If ilgross thought we were counting on a randomized captain, do you think he would use it though?

 

I get the impression from ilgross' post that he chose that consequence deliberately because he thought we would find it less preferable. This opens up the risk that he may pull out something really spiky if that doesn't work. I would like confirmation from the mod that he will select a captain by random method if we refuse to elect one now.

 

However, if it turns out that not electing a captain is not an advantageous decision for the group, I still don't intend to vote. I don't want to contribute to the success of an evil candidate and I want to observe the voting patterns. If anyone out there is evil and voting for their evil partner, you'd better believe I'm lookin' at you - and I'll be back lookin' again during the endgame. :P

[Thorum]

That's called democracy, Siry

 

One of my favourite people would like you to know:

 

Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.

 

;)

 

Nightkills in mafia are chosen democratically usually, whether it's the best available or the best allover form of government. I have to agree with that Churchill-quote. Yes, I already knew it. :P

[Alys Kinch]

This opens up the risk that he may pull out something really spiky if that doesn't work.

 

BTW, this is the reason I didn't rush to switch my vote. I think he is just trying to work us into making our own choice.