Death in the Artic - Mafia Game!

[Sirayn]

Comparison of information to be gained by lynching each of my three prime suspects ...

 

Far Dareis Mai:

- confirmation, or otherwise, of claimed finder role

- if real finder, increased likelihood but not certainty that DreadPirateRoberts is evil

- analysis of voting and support

 

DreadPirateRoberts:

- confirmation, or otherwise, of claimed serial killer role

- if real serial killer, confirmation that Far Dareis Mai or a partner is a finder of some kind

- possible faction end if independent serial killer?

- fewer night kills

- analysis of voting and support

 

Vemynal:

- confirmation, or otherwise, of claimed finder-vigilante role

- if real finder, increased likelihood but not certainty that Far Dareis Mai is evil

- possible faction end if independent serial killer?

- fewer night kills

- analysis of voting and support

 

Anyone got anything else to add? Based on this, I rank my lynch preferences as DreadPirateRoberts first, then Vemynal, then Far Dareis Mai.

[MsDanya]

blah.... getting real hard to decide who to vote for  :P

 

still think its unlikely with three different evil groups but thats just me...

[Talya]

Wow...some claim. I don't disbelieve you Sira in your claim to send anonymous messages.

 

Though I dod think this could alsobe a way of an evil person to get information about a finder for the rest of their team. Why? well by saying to the two people that were up for captain (and knowing they weren't on the evil team as she knew her team), she could then send this message to get the real finder to claim at some point saying that they were investigated. Just because FDM said she was finder with a serial killer as her find, does not automatically have anything to do with her being evil. It at the end of the day does not prove that she is evil, just Sira's interpretation of it, or one she has chosen to put out to stop her being lynched.

 

My vote stands, this has just reinforced my idea that yo are evil Sira.

[Sirayn]

Uh ... how exactly would I gain anything from Far Dareis Mai repeating that she had been told she'd investigated? This in itself wouldn't tell me anything. If I were evil, how would this benefit me?

[Talya]

Well you found a finder didn't you?

[Vemynal]

[glow=red,2,300]FDM[/glow]

 

I for one believe sirayn about her ability, its just the crazy type of thing someone would think to add to this game.

 

And sirayn, you say 2 vigilantes is stretching the game? in nuthouse we had at least 3.

 

Look, I viewed FDM and she came up *guilty*. it didn't say mafia but then again we use the term *innocent* for townies right?

 

In all honesty I have no doubt she's guilty now and I'm voting her.

 

All this crack between Wes and her I have no idea about, I just know my results and I'm sticking to it now =/

[Vemynal]

Lynch

 

Sirayn(3): Thorum, Kryos, Talya,

DPR(3): FDM, Twitch, Leelou

FDM(3): sboyd, Dark, vemynal

 

Not voting: Alys Kinch, Sirayn, DreadPirateRoberts, DSage, Danya, Safir, Barmacral

 

And, with 16 players, 8 votes for lynch

 

 

Captain

 

Alys(8 ): Dark, Talya, Danya, Kryos, Vem, Leelou, Barmacral, Thorum

Just adding this so ilgross sees it^^

 

 

 

[Alys Kinch]

We need to move on. This is the same old argument from a new perspective. The only way to know is to get the lynch. [glow=blue,2,300]Alys for captain.[/glow] [glow=red,2,300]Wes for the lynch.[/glow] Sira, I am going out on a limb and trusting you like never before. There are flaws in your logic, as Talya pointed out, but there is a point where you have to move on.

[Guest Far Dareis Mai]

because I'm not going to get a role reveal on myself that entire plan basically has gone out the window. So heres where i proclaim a truce of sorts. FDM, do you get full role reveals?

 

Yes, I get their alignment, their role, and their abilities. There is nothing I do not know about a character when I examine them.

 

 

[Sirayn]

Well you found a finder didn't you?

 

No - this is a fundamental point underlying my plan. Any innocent person who was told they were being investigated would have no cause to change their actions in any way. They have nothing to fear; the hypothetical anonymous finder would find them innocent. An evil player and only an evil player would be forced to fake claim because they know that that hypothetical anonymous finder would find them guilty. There is no way in which my actions could have harmed an innocent finder.

[Sirayn]

Oops! I forgot I hadn't voted. [glow=red,2,300]DreadPirateRoberts[/glow] for the reasons I stated above.

[Kryos]

It's all still hanging on chance though. Which since there have been no deaths yet it is a real kicker in things. But here's my question for you Sirayn? What about this other hypothetical person you sent a message to? Why don't they claim they got a message and at least give the point that you are capable of sending messages merit? Where are they? Oh wait, that's me, nevermind. I hate when I do that. Yes, I'm having a wonderful day, that's why I started out so wondrously. :D Anyhow, I will back your message sending story, as I did receive a cryptic anonymous message telling me I'm being investigated. So that part you have the truth on, but still, it could be something used for either side quite effectively. I'm intrigued by this new turn of events mind you, but still wary.

[Sirayn]

I'm glad for that confirmation Kryos. It occurred to me just now that if you were Far Dareis Mai's mafia partner and denied you'd received a message, I wouldn't be able to disprove it unless I survived to see night. ;)

[Sirayn]

So that part you have the truth on, but still, it could be something used for either side quite effectively

 

My role is one that could be used for an evil team effectively, I'm sure. Can you think of any reason why I would have sent that specific message to you both if I were evil?

[Guest Far Dareis Mai]

Perhaps because we are both innocent, and you wanted to see if one of us would make a claim?

;)

[Kryos]

*shakes fist* I was just typing that too... but not quite so abrupt.

 

Well, it would make sense if you are mafia, and the two people bashing each other with basically clubs over the Captain position and since they aren't on your team, which we can surmise there are plenty of teams by now, you would want to see how each would react to see if they possibly act in a way another mafia faction would react or how an innocent would react. There are lots of tell tale signs it could be used for, but now that you've left the wondering out about it, it would now be a totally useless feature to have as since you proclaimed your role, you can't do it anymore for everyone would know who it was then.

[Sirayn]

Here's just a few examples of the mayhem I could have caused if I were evil. Bear in mind that neither Kryos nor Far Dareis Mai realised that the anonymous messages were coming from another player and thus should be viewed as suspicious.

 

Sent to X: "YOU HAVE INVESTIGATED Y. Y IS EVIL."

Both X and Y are innocents. Bonus points if X or Y turn out to have a powerful good role.

X asks the mod why they received an investigation result. The mod refuses to clarify. X is confused but grateful.

X accuses Y. X and Y fight it out. Y is lynched and the coroner finder indicates that they are not a killer.

X survives the night. X is lynched the following day.

 

Sent to X: "YOU WILL GAIN (major additional power) IF Y IS LYNCHED."

Again, both X and Y are innocent, bonus points if they have powerful roles.

X, thinking that (major additional power) compensates for the loss of an unknown, accuses Y. X and Y fight it out. Y is lynched and the coroner finder indicates that they are not a killer.

X survives the night. X is lynched the following day.

 

These are just rough scenarios off the top of my head, but I hope this indicates that (a) there are many, many creative and interesting ways I could have abused this power were I evil and (b) I have a scheming enough mind to come up with them. In fact, the method I chose was completely harmless to an innocent. No innocent would have needed to react at all - they would have been happy to learn that they had been investigated. The only people who needed to panic and fake claim were the evil team.

[Sirayn]

Perhaps because we are both innocent, and you wanted to see if one of us would make a claim?

 

A non-finder innocent should never fake claim finder (for a given value of never). A genuine innocent finder would not have needed to claim; they would know that the hypothetical anonymous investigator had found them innocent.

 

There are lots of tell tale signs it could be used for, but now that you've left the wondering out about it, it would now be a totally useless feature to have as since you proclaimed your role, you can't do it anymore for everyone would know who it was then.

 

It's unfortunate that I can't use my role in any meaningful way any more but I don't regret revealing. I only had a minor power in the first place and I think I used it to its best effect. Also, I'm useless to my team once I'm lynched, whereas alive but powerless I can still contribute my thoughts and cases.

[Sirayn]

Also, I hadn't yet come up with equally brilliant messages to send tonight. I'm fantasising about all the lost possibilities!

[Kryos]

Just think of all the love notes you could pass back and forth.... lol... Sorry, had to be said.

 

But as I said, I'm intrigued but still wary at this time, and honestly, I have a right to be wary of everyone. I'll admit, you aren't as high on my list right now as Vemy, FDM, and DPR, but again, lynching DPR proves nothing at all in the least if his 50/50 chance is to be believed. That's why I'm trying to steer clear of that mess. My brain can only take so much each day.

[Alys Kinch]

A non-finder innocent should never fake claim finder (for a given value of never). A genuine innocent finder would not have needed to claim; they would know that the hypothetical anonymous investigator had found them innocent.

 

You are discounting the possibility (even if you think it a long shot) of Far being innocent with a real guilty verdict. In the best scenario, she would have waited until she had a few more viewings under her belt to reveal, but as captain, could she have afforded that? This all depends on how she thinks the mafia will react. How often do finders ignore that bit of advice about two or more? Most of the time.

[DPR]

I've got to read through everything again carefully, but Sira's "anonymous-random-message-sending-role" immediately struck me as a classic Sirayn whopper.  I'm used to her aggressive style, and I'm used to her throwing lots of thoeries out there and sifting through everyone's reactions to see what holds water. But, when she starts working a plan, especially this early into the game with her neck on the line, lookout!  If you have not played in a game with her before, go back and read "The Double Blind" game (she was Demandred) and watch a talented strategist in action (and I do mean this as a high compliment!) There are things that point to her working current plan, some of which have been discussed, and some that are not as noticable. Like when the lynch count hit 5, she says she did not want to have to reveal. And indeed, she did not actually reveal a role - just a power she claims to have, and I say "claims" because she is plenty smart enough to have invented that entire scenario. But what role does this coincide with? Is she another finder? I've not seen this power before, which is not to say that it could not exist, but just how elaborate of a game are we in? By Sira's count, we have at least three evil teams, an evil mafia finder, and two mafia serial killers. I just don't see how the innocents could possibly win with a scenario like that. I also don't see how anyone could logically support the thought of the first skirmish in the game revealing three evils. It just does not seem that likely.  

 

Did she cook this up just to get out of a possible lynch? It is certainly not a power that will work any longer, but it is also not a great loss, making it perfect for a cover story. Then the game goes on, and we don't really know anything else about her. The more outlandish the scenarios get, the less likely I think they are possible. Occam's Razor exists for a very good reason!

 

Again, I'll be away from my computer for a while, so I'll just re-cap where I stand:

 

I'm an innocent Serial Killer (just like I was in the Nuthouse). I wanted to confirm Far as a finder to protect the captain role, but the concept of an mafia finder came up and she began to act very strange, so maybe she is? I did not think it likely at first, but then things got weird. Vemy is a toss-up for me, and I would not have guessed Sira evil before, but with such a nifty plan and an aggressive agenda, I can see it as a possibility.

 

And, Thorum(?) had remarked that Vemy and I had refused to test our nightkill powers. I announced that I would not use mine because nobody has had a chance to discuss it, and I did not think it was fair or wise to go to night without stating my intentions. I read Vemy's post to mean the same thing. But, If everyone votes for me to kill someone, I am willing to prove that I can and will, but I don't have a great candidate, so I don't think a knee-jerk night reaction would help us out right now. That's all I got for now. I'll re-read and get back tonight if i'm still around!

 

13 NEW REPLIES SINCE I STARTED WRITING THIS - I'LL POST NOW AND AMMEND IF I NEED TO!

 

 

 

[Guest Far Dareis Mai]

I had initially role revealed because I had nabbed mafia. I didn't get "guilty" (like Vemynal claims to have received), I got Mafia, serial killer, one person show. There wasn't any way for me to convince people to go for Wes out of the blue, when so much nothing had already happened. And because I had the Captain's seat, I knew that my life could potentially be short. I didn't want to risk being nightkilled and not having told you the one mafia I knew.  It was only a few posts later that I mentioned I had been investigated, as an afterthought, because worst case scenario, someone out there knew I was innocent.

 

I had mentioned however, that I shouldn't have said I had been investigated, and that it was a reaction to the bevy of non-believers. I stand to that, I really shouldn't have let known that there was another potential finder out there...but since now I know you did it, and there really isn't another finder out there (still not believing Vemy--sorry hun, I know you are lying!  :-*)it makes me sad, for surely the evils are doing the happy dance of victory as we speak.

 

I will most likely be nightkilled tonight. The evils know I am telling the truth. There is nothing more I can do to convince any innocents. Any requests on who to examine, should I live through the night? I already know Vemy is evil, but it makes me nervous to examine him. I feel like he made up the false claim on purpose, so I would examine him tonight....and I don't know...remove my role? Steal it? The thoughts are there...but I can examine him, if you want me to.

 

I'm all for Alys being Captain. I will miss my two examinations per night, but I do not expect a long life. I know she is innocent...anywho, the wheel weaves... ;)

[DPR]

 

My apologies to Sira, it did seem like a long shot that you were telling the truth, but Kryos (and I don't think you two are working together) has proven otherwise.

 

I would vote for you just to even the score, but I can't say that I am convinced that you are evil, so I'll refrain. I'll be back later.

 

[Sirayn]

DreadPirateRoberts - no problems. If you are innocent, which I must say I doubt, then you've made the best of a bad situation. I shouldn't ever like to have a 50% chance of coming up evil.

 

Far Dareis Mai - keep findering. I'm pretty certain at the moment that you are a finder or are passing on information from a finder, although I believe you're evil, and the more information you give us the better. But not Vemynal; we already have enough information to rank him as a top suspect. I recommend people who have been under the radar this game, such as Leelou, Twitch, Safir, DSage, Danya etc.

 

It was only a few posts later that I mentioned I had been investigated, as an afterthought, because worst case scenario, someone out there knew I was innocent. (...) I had mentioned however, that I shouldn't have said I had been investigated, and that it was a reaction to the bevy of non-believers.

 

That's ... a good line, but actually, you mentioned that you had been investigated in your first post of the day, the same post in which you claimed finder. Where's the bevy of non-believers? Between the first and last lines of your post?

 

(Incidentally, you posted literally 5 minutes after the day was begun. I'm not raising this as evidence but I do find the thought that you camped out the thread with your finger on the claim button amusing. ;))