A Memory of Light - The Plot

[lou]

i am really hoping matt will get to take down either SH or fain.

[dmanmiller34]

;D this really makes me exited for the next book. Too ba its going to stillbe at least a year. :'( I alos think that when they get split up Mat will have his final duel with the Gholom.

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

  I think it more likly that the death of Shadar Haran will cause confusion and a breakdown in discipline among every unit of Trollocs south of the Blight.

 

 

Why? The Trollocs have managed to invade Randland before without Shadar Haran.

 

I think he was assuming that just as a fist of Trollocs dies when the Myrdraal leader dies, so would the Trolloc army die when Shaidar Haran is killed.

 

I don't think I agree, though I guess that could be plausible.

[Thorum]

Good read.

 

Three questions though:

 

- Fain??

- What is suggesting a fourth front in Amadicia? (okay with Tarabon, Tar Valon, Shienar, but why Amadicia?)

- Which part of the world will Perrin rule?

[RobertAlexWillis]

What is suggesting a fourth front in Amadicia? (okay with Tarabon, Tar Valon, Shienar, but why Amadicia?)

 

I think I can take this one.

 

This is suggested by the unguarded Waygates near Steddings Shadoon and Mardoon on the Shadow Coast.  These are reported by Loial after his Waygate-tour with Karldin in CoT ch 24.  Those Waygates offer the Shadow access to southern lands.

 

Although why Rand didn't simply instruct Karldin to enclose each Waygate in a Shadowspawn killing weave like the one Rand put in Shadar Logoth is beyond me ... its not the Ogier could stop him, or would even know if he did it.

[Charlz Guybon]

What is suggesting a fourth front in Amadicia? (okay with Tarabon, Tar Valon, Shienar, but why Amadicia?)

 

I think I can take this one.

 

This is suggested by the unguarded Waygates near Steddings Shadoon and Mardoon on the Shadow Coast.  These are reported by Loial after his Waygate-tour with Karldin in CoT ch 24.  Those Waygates offer the Shadow access to southern lands.

 

Although why Rand didn't simply instruct Karldin to enclose each Waygate in a Shadowspawn killing weave like the one Rand put in Shadar Logoth is beyond me ... its not the Ogier could stop him, or would even know if he did it.

 

I don't think he trusts anyone enough to teach anyone weaves that powerful.

[Luckers]

However, I'm curious about this: how is Aviendha going to tackle Graendal? She's much stronger, and she also has an angreal.

 

You forget that Aviendha also has an angreal now, thanks to Elayne. And suggestively her angreal is significantly stronger than Graendal's, making up for their relative strength distance.

 

And how is Perrin going to battle Shaidar Haran? The freakin Superfade seems to be able to channel. I can only see Perrin winning if the wolves help him. They would bring SH down, even if it took a thousand of them to do it.

 

I don't see any reason why that scenario isn't exactly possible. But beyond that there are limits to SH's abilities... certainly he can't channel in the manner other channelers can.

 

My main reason for suggesting it, though, was that of everyone Perrin is in the best emotional position to want to do away with SH.

 

And Elayne ruling two countries? I hope it never happens.

 

With travelling its far from impossible, and Elayne, whatever else she may be, is a relatively talented civil governer.

 

Hrm, interesting. I guess I just always figured it was Halima who was beating Sheriam. I never bothered looking any further because she seemed like such an obvious suspect. After all, it was after that when she decided to attach herself to Egwene, and Sheriam was being punished for not keeping her attacker informed of what Egwene was doing.

 

The issue with Halima is that if she were torturing Sheriam, than Sheriam has to be black... but if Sheriam were black, where is the need for the counter-productive torture? Irrespective of personal risk, no Aes Sedai would allow an obvious Forsaken to go about their buisiness unless she were black.

 

Beyond that, when Sheriam conciders the position she is in, she specifically states that she wished she had never spoken to a sitter in her life. If Halima were doing the beatings the far more obvious desire--even if the beatings resulted from a conversation with Delana--would be to wish that she had never had anything to do with the shadow.

 

That said...  Where is Fain?

 

I left him out because he is so unpredictable. I stated each of those theories based either on progression of their character from KoD, or on prophecy. Fain (and various others including Slayer) are such unknowns that i have no idea how RJ will use them.

 

If Tarwin's Gap does have to be abandoned by Lan and the Malkieri the Dreadlords could easily open fronts as far south as Tear and Illian.

 

No, they couldn't. The Shadow has no massed and organized human army, and Shadowspawn can't pass through gateways.

 

 this really makes me exited for the next book. Too ba its going to stillbe at least a year.  I alos think that when they get split up Mat will have his final duel with the Gholom.

 

RJ said in his blog that there were plans for the release of the prologue by August, but that he didn't think it possible. Hopefully, though, that suggests that we will get the prologue sometime in the next few months.

 

- What is suggesting a fourth front in Amadicia? (okay with Tarabon, Tar Valon, Shienar, but why Amadicia?)

 

Steddings Shadoon and Mardoon in the Shadow Coast both have unsealed waygates. Beyond that, i feel that something needs to occur to bring the threat of the shadow home to the Seanchan, who, till that stage, only fear the shadow as an esoteric principal.

 

Also, all those comments about how much Seanchan want to see 'these shadowspawn of yours' make me think a surprise strike is inevitable... from a thematic standpoint.

 

- Which part of the world will Perrin rule?

 

Min has seen the Broken Crown around Perrin, showing that he will one day rule in Saldaea. Possibly, with the influx of refugees and Seanchan immegrants he could rule from Saldaea down through the Caralain Grass and into the Two Rivers.

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

What is suggesting a fourth front in Amadicia? (okay with Tarabon, Tar Valon, Shienar, but why Amadicia?)

 

I think I can take this one.

 

This is suggested by the unguarded Waygates near Steddings Shadoon and Mardoon on the Shadow Coast.  These are reported by Loial after his Waygate-tour with Karldin in CoT ch 24.  Those Waygates offer the Shadow access to southern lands.

 

Although why Rand didn't simply instruct Karldin to enclose each Waygate in a Shadowspawn killing weave like the one Rand put in Shadar Logoth is beyond me ... its not the Ogier could stop him, or would even know if he did it.

 

I don't think he trusts anyone enough to teach anyone weaves that powerful.

 

I diagree. Half of the time that he does something like that, he doesn't know what he is doing, because it comes from Lews Therin. The deathgates, and the fire blossoms, for instance.

 

Most likely, he would have had Karldin do that, if he had actually known how to do it himself, or trusted Lews Therin enough to let him show him.

 

Let's not forget that even if he did know exactly how it was done, he would have had to seize saidin to show him, and there's the problem of dizziness that he feels every time he opens himself to the Source.

[Fel]

If Tarwin's Gap does have to be abandoned by Lan and the Malkieri the Dreadlords could easily open fronts as far south as Tear and Illian.

No, they couldn't. The Shadow has no massed and organized human army, and Shadowspawn can't pass through gateways.

 

I think the poster was saying that if tarwin's gap falls, trollocs can pour out and head through relatively undefended land in every direction.  They can run through the caralain grass, through western andor and pillage/rampage straight down to illian or wherever.

 

Tarwins gap and the  borderlands in general provide a wall to hold them back - once that breaks, they can flow anywhere in the softer "interior" of the land.

 

I am not sure they would go that way, preferring the idea of the waygates in the south, but it is definitely an option

[Luckers]

Well they can't actually. Part of the reason Rand place Rhuarc in Arad Domon was to put him in a position to react to an incursion through the Shadows Lance. No Trolloc assault could pass through the western realm without encountering him, and 250,000 Aiel, 3,000 Wise Ones and 400 Asha'men aren't anything to ignore.

 

East of that you either encounter the Aes Sedai (as i suspect they will, having driven Lan south) or Elayne, and again, 200,000 soldiers and 300 channelers is not lightly ignored. Beyond that Rand has an army 300,000 or so plus 3,00 Wise Ones and 400 Asha'men in Tear, ready to respond through gateways to any unseen incursion.

 

About the only place the Shadow can easily attack in the South is Seanchan held lands. Everywhere else has an army that is specifically in place to resist them.

[Charlz Guybon]

Well they can't actually. Part of the reason Rand place Rhuarc in Arad Domon was to put him in a position to react to an incursion through the Shadows Lance. No Trolloc assault could pass through the western realm without encountering him, and 250,000 Aiel, 3,000 Wise Ones and 400 Asha'men aren't anything to ignore.

 

East of that you either encounter the Aes Sedai (as i suspect they will, having driven Lan south) or Elayne, and again, 200,000 soldiers and 300 channelers is not lightly ignored. Beyond that Rand has an army 300,000 or so plus 3,00 Wise Ones and 400 Asha'men in Tear, ready to respond through gateways to any unseen incursion.

 

About the only place the Shadow can easily attack in the South is Seanchan held lands. Everywhere else has an army that is specifically in place to resist them.

 

The Shadow's Lance is on the border of Arafel and Kandor, 2000 miles from Arad Doman. I can't see how the army there is relevant. The Shadow's Lance is much closer to Tarwin's Gap than it is to Arad Doman.

 

[Luckers]

It's called a gateway. Or rather, gateways, plural.

 

Rand placed the army in Arad Domon for several reasons. One, to restore order to a land in chaos, two, to be in a position to attack the Seanchan should it prove nessasary--or at the least provide a negotiating point--and thridly, to be near to the borderlands in the event of a Trolloc incursion. And, of course, bound up in all that is the fact that as prospective allies Rand would have avoided placing an army on their soil.

[Charlz Guybon]

It's called a gateway. Or rather, gateways, plural.

 

Rand placed the army in Arad Domon for several reasons. One, to restore order to a land in chaos, two, to be in a position to attack the Seanchan should it prove nessasary--or at the least provide a negotiating point--and thridly, to be near to the borderlands in the event of a Trolloc incursion. And, of course, bound up in all that is the fact that as prospective allies Rand would have avoided placing an army on their soil.

Unless he has Ashaman/Wiseones in Arafel how will he find out in time?  There must be a more westerly pass that the Trollocs use to threaten Saldaea, that the Aiel are meant to keep an eye on.

[jaimevotrechapeau]

Very nicely expressed. I agree with most of what's been written, an overwhelming majority of it really. However, I don't think Birgitte's dead mainly because of Min's vision of her and a much younger fellow whom we assume to be Gaidal Cain. Generally, they're incarnated as Gaidal first, Birgitte, and this being a weirdo case, Gaidal comes second, but I think this is the only case where he would come second. Alors, Birgitte needs to alive to adventurize with him.

Also, the whole Thom+Moiraine thing needs to be expounded on in AMoL. By far one of the most random couplings. And WOT has its share of random couples.

[Charlz Guybon]

This has been an incredibly entertaining read and it is well structured.  I could see many of these events coming to pass. 

 

That said...  Where is Fain?

 

Shouldn't the Horn, at some point, go to Illian?

There really is no reason for the Horn to go to Illian, other then tradition. With the Last Battle coming, I don't think that anyone is going to be caring much about tradition.

 

As for Fain, that's a good question.  I still think he'd be a good candidate to take down Shaidar Haran myself.

 

I think Trollocs will lay siege to Illain and Mat will use the Band of the Red Hand and the Horn of Valere to raise the siege.

[Luckers]

Unless he has Ashaman/Wiseones in Arafel how will he find out in time?  There must be a more westerly pass that the Trollocs use to threaten Saldaea, that the Aiel are meant to keep an eye on.

 

I doubt it. My guess is that that army is not only monitering the Shadow's Lance, but also Tarwin Gap using specifically the method you describe--Asha'men.

 

Even where there an entrance into Saldaea, the Aiel are too far away to moniter it by the old methods in any case. To be fair though, irrespective of their moinitering i suspect Trollocs will indeed ravage the borderlands before Rhuarch has time to react--mostly thematic reasons, but meh.

 

However, I don't think Birgitte's dead mainly because of Min's vision of her and a much younger fellow whom we assume to be Gaidal Cain. Generally, they're incarnated as Gaidal first, Birgitte, and this being a weirdo case, Gaidal comes second, but I think this is the only case where he would come second. Alors, Birgitte needs to alive to adventurize with him.

 

After a long discussion with Robert I'm inclined to agree, though i still think there is ambiguity to that comment.

 

But i dont see Birgitte dealing much with Gaidal in this life. He is, at best, a toddler, and she is in her late twenties to early thirties. By the time he is around she'll be nearing fifty. It possibly, certainly... but i concider it unlikely.

[Charlz Guybon]

Unless he has Ashaman/Wiseones in Arafel how will he find out in time?  There must be a more westerly pass that the Trollocs use to threaten Saldaea, that the Aiel are meant to keep an eye on.

 

I doubt it. My guess is that that army is not only monitering the Shadow's Lance, but also Tarwin Gap using specifically the method you describe--Asha'men.

 

Even where there an entrance into Saldaea, the Aiel are too far away to moniter it by the old methods in any case. To be fair though, irrespective of their moinitering i suspect Trollocs will indeed ravage the borderlands before Rhuarch has time to react--mostly thematic reasons, but meh.

 

 

There must be an entrance into Saldaea, how could Trollocs raid it in force if there were not. In The Eye of the World, Domon mentions that while he wintered in Saldaea, Trolloc raids reached the walls of Maradon. Moreover the Trolloc Wars began with the sack of Barsine, which lay in modern Saldaea.

[TheRedSon]

Birgitte could die in AMoL and still be spun out in time to be Gaidal's one and only.  Either that or she's destined for the Nancy Grace show.

 

I still don't see who's going to stop the Trollocs from marching all the way from Tarwin's Gap to the Sea of Storms.  I suppose any number of armies could use a gate to get in their way.  I don't know that there will be any armies with nothing else on their plate though.  

 

So, who knows how the good guys are going to feed themselves for the next 1,000 pages?

[Luckers]

The problem is that there are armies along the way that the Trollocs can't afford to leave behind them, including the Aes Sedai, the armies of Andor (and their wilders) and Rhuarc's army.

 

There must be an entrance into Saldaea, how could Trollocs raid it in force if there were not. In The Eye of the World, Domon mentions that while he wintered in Saldaea, Trolloc raids reached the walls of Maradon. Moreover the Trolloc Wars began with the sack of Barsine, which lay in modern Saldaea.

 

As I understand things, and that may be flawed, there are only two paths through the mountains of dhoom capable of handling armies that large, and they are Tarwin's Gap and the Shadow's Lance.

 

Also, i draw your attention to Bashere's comment in KoD that prior to what he witnessed in Tear, and assault of a few hundred trollocs was concidered a large incursion... *shrug*

[bcxanth]

I had a thought over on the Forkroot thread, and thought I'd toss it in here as well.  How do you think the Seanchan use of Forkroot will play when they attack the Tower?  Do you think they might try and take a cue from Perrin and his use of it against the Wise Ones, or do you think they'll not have enough time considering how swiftly they'll want to strike?

 

Alternately, I can see a scene where some high ranking Seanchan who is in on the plan for the attack on the Tower thinking that they could use Forkroot if a large amount of their supply had not vanished without a trace.

[Luckers]

Firstly, there isn't enough Forkroot left for that, and secondly they have no access to the Aes Sedai water supply (and besides, Aes Sedai don't just drink water, like the Wise Ones). So yeah, i don't really see this playing a part.

[TheRedSon]

The problem is that there are armies along the way that the Trollocs can't afford to leave behind them, including the Aes Sedai, the armies of Andor (and their wilders) and Rhuarc's army.

 

I wasn't suggesting that they would leave any army they knew about or came across free to attack them from behind.  I'm working under the impression that there will be more than enough Trollocs to engage the large armies we've mentioned AND lay seige to several other important cities.  Every Trolloc that marches through Tarwin's Gap doesn't have to head straight for Tar Valon.  Unless some channelers zipped in to help them it wouldn't take more than 100,000 to rout Cairhien and force the Tairens into the Stone.  If they could send enough Trollocs south to simply force the Cairhienen, Tairens and Illianers to abandon their fields for the safety of the cities then they'd really put a squeeze on the food supply.

[RobertAlexWillis]

But i dont see Birgitte dealing much with Gaidal in this life. He is, at best, a toddler, and she is in her late twenties to early thirties. By the time he is around she'll be nearing fifty. It possibly, certainly... but i concider it unlikely.

 

Yeah I know ... that would be like someone around, say, Lan's age hooking up with someone, I don't know, around Nynaeve's age ...

 

;)

[Cadsuane]

But Robert, everyone knows older women are always total hags, while older men can be sexy. Sheesh.

 

;)

[RobertAlexWillis]

Well, it may be that I'm biased, but ... the hottest woman who ever hit on me was about almost 40 at the time ... and I was 22, so ...  :-[

 

She said I was the perfect man ... I guess her mind went before her body ...  :D