Theory on asmos murder

[Mr Ares]

Basically, theories on Asmo's killer have spearated into three basic camps: Graendalists, who support the candidate with the most for and least against her, and who requires the fewest assumptions, by far, to make work; Moiraineists, whose candidates still support her despite the little for her and lot against her, because they don't wish to admit that a far more logical and likely candidate is Graendal, and that RJ is willing to provide boring answers to plot points; and the idiots, which covers everyone else, and all their worthless theories, such as LTT dunnit, Davram Bashere dunnit, Lan dunnit, a certain horse/past it running gag dunnit, and so on. And really, I'm being very generous not counting Moiraine as an idiot candidate.

 

As for Graendal, we know she didn't do it on Shai'tan's orders, because no-one did. However, we have a plan involving 4 Chosen. One is bait, and so will be making his Palace into a fortress, one is dead, one is stilled (probably) and in another world (definately), leaving only Graendal. Also, if they met in Illian they would risk giving away the trap, by Rand senseing them before they can make their move, or they wait until he is practically on top of them before they grab the Power (a bit on the dangerous side). So they meet somewhere before linking and Travel in - and neither Lanfear's nor Graendal's places are known to the others. leaving either Caemlyn, or neutral territory. If Caemlyn, then she has a reason to be there, and if she saw Asmo, she would take him out. Everything else is just details. And there, in brief, is the Graendal dunnit case. Also, she can (along with everyone else, depending on the criteria you use) be considered intuitively obvious. But I won't go into that now.

 

Moiraine's case involves "wishes", not being stilled, the invention of new abilities for the Eelfinn, and much, much more. It's all unnecessarily complicated.

 

And yes, we all know that it probably isn't relevant to to the finale, but some people just will not accept that we have an answer, and others will not accept that level of stupidity. And so the argument continues....

[Guest cwestervelt]

Basically, theories on Asmo's killer have spearated into three basic camps: Graendalists, who support the candidate with the most for and least against her, and who requires the fewest assumptions, by far, to make work; Moiraineists, whose candidates still support her despite the little for her and lot against her, because they don't wish to admit that a far more logical and likely candidate is Graendal, and that RJ is willing to provide boring answers to plot points; and the idiots, which covers everyone else, and all their worthless theories, such as LTT dunnit, Davram Bashere dunnit, Lan dunnit, a certain horse/past it running gag dunnit, and so on. And really, I'm being very generous not counting Moiraine as an idiot candidate.

 

As for Graendal, we know she didn't do it on Shai'tan's orders, because no-one did. However, we have a plan involving 4 Chosen. One is bait, and so will be making his Palace into a fortress, one is dead, one is stilled (probably) and in another world (definately), leaving only Graendal. Also, if they met in Illian they would risk giving away the trap, by Rand senseing them before they can make their move, or they wait until he is practically on top of them before they grab the Power (a bit on the dangerous side). So they meet somewhere before linking and Travel in - and neither Lanfear's nor Graendal's places are known to the others. leaving either Caemlyn, or neutral territory. If Caemlyn, then she has a reason to be there, and if she saw Asmo, she would take him out. Everything else is just details. And there, in brief, is the Graendal dunnit case. Also, she can (along with everyone else, depending on the criteria you use) be considered intuitively obvious. But I won't go into that now.

 

Moiraine's case involves "wishes", not being stilled, the invention of new abilities for the Eelfinn, and much, much more. It's all unnecessarily complicated.

 

And yes, we all know that it probably isn't relevant to to the finale, but some people just will not accept that we have an answer, and others will not accept that level of stupidity. And so the argument continues....

 

Graendal's case has nothing for her but assumptions.

 

She had no reason to be in Caemlyn.  She was not waiting there with Rahvin waiting to go to Sammael's aid.  Rahvin made it perfectly clear that she wasn't welcome.  She would not have gone to Caemly after Rahvin's death like she did with Sammael.  Sammael flaunted the fact he found a stasis box.  All indications were that Rahvin had found nothing.  The only reason she went Illian was that she had reason to expect the risk to payoff after Sammael died.  With Rahvin she didn't.

 

Graendal didn't know Rahvin was dead until Demandred told her.  Demandred didn't know until the Dark One told him.  She had no reason to hide the truth.  The argument tha she was afraid of the others thinking she was making a power grab died out a couple books back when Moridin started putting his foot down.  It never had much value anyway as it completely failed to provide a reason to avoid telling the reader for six books.

 

We have now had six books in which additional clues were to be provided.  Well, we have.  Over the course of those books, we have gotten information that eliminates all of the Forsaken.  More accurately, we have received a lack of information concerning who really did it.  Whether you like it or not, the fact that nothing in the following books supports a Forsaken reinforces the case for the one person we have not seen on stage since then.

 

Right from the beginning, the reason for depicting Asmodean's murder the way it was had a single purpose.  RJ couldn't have said clearer that Moiraine was alive if he had gone and written the words into the text at that point.

 

Then, there is the alleged quote that has been debated before that not just the method of Asmodean's death prevented transmigration but where he died also did.  If the quote is accurate, then Asmodean didn't die in Caemlyn.

 

Anyway, this has all been said before.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Then, there is the alleged quote that has been debated before that not just the method of Asmodean's death prevented transmigration but where he died also did.  If the quote is accurate, then Asmodean didn't die in Caemlyn.

 

Yeah ... well if the book published by the author is right, then Asmodean did die in Caemlyn ...

 

...unsourced quote ... published book ... unsourced quote ... published book ...

 

hmmmm ....

 

::)

 

But you're right, this has all been said before.

 

[Guest cwestervelt]

Then, there is the alleged quote that has been debated before that not just the method of Asmodean's death prevented transmigration but where he died also did.  If the quote is accurate, then Asmodean didn't die in Caemlyn.

 

Yeah ... well if the book published by the author is right, then Asmodean did die in Caemlyn ...

 

...unsourced quote ... published book ... unsourced quote ... published book ...

 

hmmmm ....

 

::)

 

But you're right, this has all been said before.

 

 

That is why I said alleged quote.  I tried briefly to track it down this morning but wasn't able to.

[Mr Ares]

Basically, theories on Asmo's killer have spearated into three basic camps: Graendalists, who support the candidate with the most for and least against her, and who requires the fewest assumptions, by far, to make work; Moiraineists, whose candidates still support her despite the little for her and lot against her, because they don't wish to admit that a far more logical and likely candidate is Graendal, and that RJ is willing to provide boring answers to plot points; and the idiots, which covers everyone else, and all their worthless theories, such as LTT dunnit, Davram Bashere dunnit, Lan dunnit, a certain horse/past it running gag dunnit, and so on. And really, I'm being very generous not counting Moiraine as an idiot candidate.

 

As for Graendal, we know she didn't do it on Shai'tan's orders, because no-one did. However, we have a plan involving 4 Chosen. One is bait, and so will be making his Palace into a fortress, one is dead, one is stilled (probably) and in another world (definately), leaving only Graendal. Also, if they met in Illian they would risk giving away the trap, by Rand senseing them before they can make their move, or they wait until he is practically on top of them before they grab the Power (a bit on the dangerous side). So they meet somewhere before linking and Travel in - and neither Lanfear's nor Graendal's places are known to the others. leaving either Caemlyn, or neutral territory. If Caemlyn, then she has a reason to be there, and if she saw Asmo, she would take him out. Everything else is just details. And there, in brief, is the Graendal dunnit case. Also, she can (along with everyone else, depending on the criteria you use) be considered intuitively obvious. But I won't go into that now.

 

Moiraine's case involves "wishes", not being stilled, the invention of new abilities for the Eelfinn, and much, much more. It's all unnecessarily complicated.

 

And yes, we all know that it probably isn't relevant to to the finale, but some people just will not accept that we have an answer, and others will not accept that level of stupidity. And so the argument continues....

Graendal's case has nothing for her but assumptions.

 

She had no reason to be in Caemlyn.  She was not waiting there with Rahvin waiting to go to Sammael's aid.  Rahvin made it perfectly clear that she wasn't welcome.  She would not have gone to Caemly after Rahvin's death like she did with Sammael.  Sammael flaunted the fact he found a stasis box.  All indications were that Rahvin had found nothing.  The only reason she went Illian was that she had reason to expect the risk to payoff after Sammael died.  With Rahvin she didn't.

 

Graendal didn't know Rahvin was dead until Demandred told her.  Demandred didn't know until the Dark One told him.  She had no reason to hide the truth.  The argument tha she was afraid of the others thinking she was making a power grab died out a couple books back when Moridin started putting his foot down.  It never had much value anyway as it completely failed to provide a reason to avoid telling the reader for six books.

 

We have now had six books in which additional clues were to be provided.  Well, we have.  Over the course of those books, we have gotten information that eliminates all of the Forsaken.  More accurately, we have received a lack of information concerning who really did it.  Whether you like it or not, the fact that nothing in the following books supports a Forsaken reinforces the case for the one person we have not seen on stage since then.

 

Right from the beginning, the reason for depicting Asmodean's murder the way it was had a single purpose.  RJ couldn't have said clearer that Moiraine was alive if he had gone and written the words into the text at that point.

 

Then, there is the alleged quote that has been debated before that not just the method of Asmodean's death prevented transmigration but where he died also did.  If the quote is accurate, then Asmodean didn't die in Caemlyn.

 

Anyway, this has all been said before.

Graendal's case has nothing but assumption eh? The murderer needs: means, motive, opportunity, ability to dispose of the body, and recognisability to Asmo. Graendal has: means (she's a channeler), motive (get the traitor, remove the threa, etc.), ability to dispose of the body (channeler, again), recognisability (former colleague). Moiraine has: means? (She was stilled, killed, or something else snapped the bond. We know she wasn't killed, but something else menas we must assume that something else can snap the bond, and that something happened to Moiraine, so 1 or 2 assumptions there.) Motive? (Asmo was a benefit to rand, he learned more with Asmo than during any equivalent period of time, and M's letter pretty much said, "he's your problem now".) Opportunity? (She was a captive. For her to be there, we must assume she was aalowed to make a bargain, that they could have put her out, that they cold bring her in again, or at least that they could bring Asmo in, none of which we know, so we must invent new powers for the Eelfinn.) Body disposal? (She was probably stilled, but if she wasn't she would have had the ability to do it.) Recognisability? (She had that.) For Graendal, we must assume only that she had the oppotunity to kill him, and that she had reason for secrecy, and that RJ did as well. In terms of speaking it, she wouldn't have done it in most of the situations we have seen her in, for obvious reasons (too little gain for too much risk), which leaves only POV evidence, which has been kept off screen for whatever reason RJ has for the secrecy. One assumption. Moiraine requires a string of them, for practically every part of the mystery. The secrecy is another thing she has going for her, to keep her return quiet, and she hasn't had a POV, but other than that it's a very weak case indeed. And what information have we got that eliminates Graendal specifically? What have you picked up on that no-one else has? And remember, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

 

On the "how and where" suposed quote, we know of no place beyond Shai'tan's ability to recover a soul, the only barrier we know of is time. So we need more assumption here, none of which are necessary. the only how that springs to mind is balefire, but that is enough in and of itself. As we know of no place beyond Shai'tan's ability to recover a soul, not even Finnland (see Lanfear/Cyndane), then this quote isn't very helpful, and I fail to see how it is significantly more relevant to any one candidate than any other.

 

And yes, all this has been said before.If people would listen, for once, it wouldn't need to be said again.

[lou]

is it the assumption that graendal should have broadcasted killing asmo that is bothering everyone? well, if i were graendal, i would certainly keep that info to myself. think how the other forsaken might react if they knew that graendal had taken such an opportunity...would they bare thier own backs to her, or would the remaining forsaken take it as "open season" and rid themselves of yet another rival?

[Okvoz al-Vrag]

Bella did it.

 

and, I abetted her.

 

As for Moiraine theories, please note she knew who Asmodean was before she fell therough the doorway ter-angreal.  Her note to Rand pretty much exonerates her as does the fact she is trapped in A&E land. Graendal seems to be utter illogical to me also.  I believe is was a reincarnated Ishmael/Moridin in the form of Shadar Haran who balefired him with the True Power.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I believe is was a reincarnated Ishmael/Moridin in the form of Shadar Haran who balefired him with the True Power.

 

....

 

....

 

:'(

[Mr Ares]

As for Moiraine theories, please note she knew who Asmodean was before she fell therough the doorway ter-angreal.  Her note to Rand pretty much exonerates her as does the fact she is trapped in A&E land. Graendal seems to be utter illogical to me also.  I believe is was a reincarnated Ishmael/Moridin in the form of Shadar Haran who balefired him with the True Power.

You think Graendal is illogical, when I just explained, in brief, some of the logic behind her? Then you are an idiot. You think it was "I believe is was a reincarnated Ishmael/Moridin in the form of Shadar Haran who balefired him with the True Power." That makes no sense. 1.Ishamael was dead. 2.Moridin was not yet in existence (so far as we know). 3.Shaidar haran was not yet in existence (so far as we know). 4.The dead cannot return to life (so far as we knew at the time). 5.We had all the clues as of FOH to solve the mystery. Therefore, without the knowledge we would get from subsequent books, it is impossible to come up with Ishy, Morry, or SH as the killer. Therefore, your solution is terrible. It also made RAW cry. So, therefore, you are an idiot. Oh, and SH is completely different from Ishy/Morry, so you're an idiot, again.

 

And, in very short form, Graendal did it because it takes fewer assumptions to make it her than anyone else, ther is no compelling evidence against her doing it, she has every requirement other than opportunity, and we don't know of anything else she was doing at the time, and she was involved in the plot running throughout FOH, and of the conspirators was the only one with the opportunity do do it. What more do you need?

 

And young cwestervelt, I see you haven't made a response yet. Hurry up, or people will start thinking that (*shock, horror*) you just lost the argument, and your candidate just got beaten. and we wouldn't want them thinking that, now would we?

[Majsju]

  I believe is was a reincarnated Ishmael/Moridin in the form of Shadar Haran who balefired him with the True Power.

 

[Guest cwestervelt]

is it the assumption that graendal should have broadcasted killing asmo that is bothering everyone? well, if i were graendal, i would certainly keep that info to myself. think how the other forsaken might react if they knew that graendal had taken such an opportunity...would they bare thier own backs to her, or would the remaining forsaken take it as "open season" and rid themselves of yet another rival?

 

No, not broadcasting it to the Forsaken is not the issue.  It is a complete lack of thoughts concerning how she managed to get rid of Asmodean in her PoVs whenever Asmodean was a subject of discussion.  Instead, we get a complete lack of internal gloating, no self congratulatory pat on the back.  In other words, completely out of character for her when she is trying to be manipulative.  The only reason for her to that way is that she is as clueless about what happened to Asmodean as the other Forsaken are.

[Darkness Incarnated]

I read somewhere that Lanfear was supposed to check on Rand and then tell Rahvin and Graendal for the three of them to link and Travel to Illian. Doesn't this strike anyone as unnecessarily complicated? Why would they need to meet in Caemlyn first? Rand was supposed to attack Illian. What's the best way of knowing that he's doing so? To be there, already waiting for him. It's not like Rand was going to take them by surprise; Sammael had set wards, they would have had ample warning of his arrival.

And why is it that Rahvin's threats are taken so lightly or blatantly ignored? He sounded serious to me, and the other three surely realized that. That was his territory, and he was the top dog there. The presence of uninvited dogs would be considered a threat.

 

[Guest cwestervelt]

His threats were not ignored and they were taken seriously.  The proof is that every planning session we saw from then on took place in Tel'aran'rhiod.

[Darkness Incarnated]

Actually, I commented about the threats because Graendal supposedly turns up in Caemly on the fateful day (as the Graendal camp would have it), 1) to hang around with Rahvin, waiting for Lanfear's signal (in which case maybe Rahvin has invited her, but she's no where to be seen when Rand attacks, so what gives?), 2) she goes there for personal reasons (?), which implies that a) she already knows he is dead so she has nothing to fear about his wards, or b) she doesn't know he is dead and yet goes there, despite the threats. Basically I meant that the Graendal camp dismisses the threats when it comes to 2.b, not the FS.

There's also the issue of timing. When Rand attacks, Rahvin is chilling out with some nobles. Where is Graendal? She's supposed to be waiting with him for Lanfear's signal, right? It could be that she hasn't arrived yet, but then what if Lanfear came before Graendal? In other words, Graendal, not knowing when that signal will come, should logically already be in Rahvin's company by the time Rand falls on him.

[Okvoz al-Vrag]

[snip] Then you are an idiot. [snip] What more do you need?

 

Some basic courtesy would be nice for starters.  I'm not sure whether you are over the age of 10, but this sort of name calling isn't necessary nor is it acceptable. Everyone is entitled to believe any theory they choose, even if it is wrong. If the answer were obvious, then there would not have been the amount of ink spilled on the various threads and the FAQ on this topic. 

 

The Graendal theories are so full of assumptions that they strain MY credulity. Are they interesting? Yes. Are they possible? I suppose so. Are they undeniable fact? No.

 

Please feel free to remain confident of your own opinions, however. Rest assured I won't think any less of you for it.

[Mr Ares]

[snip] Then you are an idiot. [snip] What more do you need?

 

Some basic courtesy would be nice for starters.  I'm not sure whether you are over the age of 10, but this sort of name calling isn't necessary nor is it acceptable. Everyone is entitled to believe any theory they choose, even if it is wrong. If the answer were obvious, then there would not have been the amount of ink spilled on the various threads and the FAQ on this topic.

Considering no-one has arisen to challenge my claim to be the oldest poster here, yes I am over 10 (by more than 8 decades), so insulting my age won't get you anywhere. I wasn't calling you an idiot because of your opinion on the murderer, I was calling you an idiot because of your failure to understand the reasoning behind Graendal being the killer. Other people have disagreed with that reasoning, but they do understand it. You claim to not understand, when I laid it out fairly simply, which does not exactly make you look like a genius. Mr Ares does not agree that people are entitled to an opinion, He believes that they are entitled to an informed opinion. In short, if you don't know what you are talking about either shut up or ask for information. And just because people can't see the obvious, doesn't mean it isn't there. They just have difficulty seeing the wood for the trees. The answer is obvious to some (depending on who, it could be very many people indeed), but the rest can't see it. And I give courtesy to those who deserve it, when they deserve it. That does cover most people, most of the time, but not idiots who can't be bothered to read what others have written not long before, or don't wish to put any effort into understanding it.

 

The Graendal theories are so full of assumptions that they strain MY credulity. Are they interesting? Yes. Are they possible? I suppose so. Are they undeniable fact? No.

No-one, other than perhaps the rabid Graendalists, consider their theories on this matter to be fact. They simply consider that their theory is better supported than the others, and they do their best to convince others. As for full of assumptions, which assumption free candidate do you support? I have yet to see any candidate that requires fewer than Graendal. Of the big 5 points needed for the killer (means, motive, opportunity, recognition, body disposal) Graendal requires only one assumption. EVERYONE ELSE REQUIRES MORE. EVERYONE. You are welcome to try and disprove that statement. Moiraine requires 4, Lanfear requires 4 (if she had opportunity, she would kill Rand rather than Asmo), Bashere requires all 5, LTT requires 4 (Asmo would recognise Rand, but that wouldn't induce that reaction), and so on. You can start nitpicking the details then, if you like, but Graendal is closer to an open and shut case than any other candidate.

 

Please feel free to remain confident of your own opinions, however. Rest assured I won't think any less of you for it.

That means so much to me, child. Rest assured, I couldn't think less of you if I tried, but if you actually try to dissect other peoples theories, rather than just saying in a vague way they are illogical, or full of assumptions, I might think more of you. Oh, and as pointed out, your theory is wrong. Believe if you want, it will still be wrong, and still make no sense, and you will still look like an idiot for not understanding that Ishy/Morry and SH are different entities.

 

is it the assumption that graendal should have broadcasted killing asmo that is bothering everyone? well, if i were graendal, i would certainly keep that info to myself. think how the other forsaken might react if they knew that graendal had taken such an opportunity...would they bare thier own backs to her, or would the remaining forsaken take it as "open season" and rid themselves of yet another rival?

No, not broadcasting it to the Forsaken is not the issue.  It is a complete lack of thoughts concerning how she managed to get rid of Asmodean in her PoVs whenever Asmodean was a subject of discussion.  Instead, we get a complete lack of internal gloating, no self congratulatory pat on the back.  In other words, completely out of character for her when she is trying to be manipulative.  The only reason for her to that way is that she is as clueless about what happened to Asmodean as the other Forsaken are.

Not saying you're wrong, but what similar instances have we seen her in that involve her gloating to herself. I'm sure if someone provides a couple of references we can all go crazy debating how they differ from this situation, and how her reactions would differ as a result. Also, remember that an absence of evidence does not constitute evidence of absence. Her not thinking about Asmo, even in situations where we might expect her to means only that she has not thought about him while we were privy to her thoughts. Our expectations could always be wrong, after all. Most people we have things that definitively rule them out, such as Semi thinking she didn't know what happenend to him, and the fact that we do not have such a thought from Graendal means we cannot completely rule her out, even if we would like to.

 

Finally, we come back to meeting in Caemlyn as opposed to Illian or elsewhere. Personally, I would have thought that the reasons against meeting in Illian were self evident, but here goes, let's see who agrees and who doesn't: If they meet in Illian, then they must either link before, or shortly after Rand's arrival, and that runs the risk of Rand being aleted to the trap (by the amount of Power being drawn, etc.) or they must wait until rand is practically on top of them before they link, which considering how many of them he has killed is a bit on the dangerous side, don't you think? It had already been decided that Sammael would not be a part of the link, lest his inclusion alert Rand, and if not give him a chance to escape then at least make the fight harder than it would otherwise be, which is not something they want. Therfore, t would make sense to Travel in. If they do not link beforehand, then they link on arrival, which is a bit more dangerous, as it involves them coming in as and initially being individuals, which is what the plan was set up to avoid. Therefore, it would make sense to meet up somewhere and link prior to Travelling in, as that would mean they come in as one. Therfore, they need a meeting place to be agreed prior to Sammael giving the alert, as otherwise...well that's obvious. So this pre-arranged meeting place cannot be Illian, for the reasons outlined above, it cannot be Lanfear's place as the others (Rhavin at least) do not know where it is, it can't be Graendal's for the same reason, so that leaves either Caemlyn or some other, neutral territory. All this was intuitivley obvious to me, but then I don't exactly think the same way as everyone else, so if you didn't see that or thought differently, that's not a problem, provided you see where I'm coming from. Now, the question arises, why Caemlyn, as opposed to neutral ground (which would be my preferred choice were I involved with the plan)? Well, if they were to do it elsewhere, then that increases the chances of being spied on (as we saw with Moggy), and thus someone learning of the plan who you do not wish to learn of it. If they were to do it somewhere else in Illian (the country, rather than city) they run the risk of Rand's forces mounting an attack on a more vulnerable point if he should start by attacking the country rater than just Travelling alone into the palace (they know he has an army by now, so it would be wise to worry about him using it, and they know LTT was a good general, so it would be wise to worry about him still being one). If they were to go to T'A'R, they have to worry about Moghedian, if they go to Shadow controlled territory, they have to worry about Demandred finding out (he has been acting Nae'blis,on his own mind at least, during Ishy's "absence"), and they ave already said they don't want him involved. It makes sense (or should, anyway), if you are Rhavin, to invite the others to your base, where you can keep an eye on them, and where you can prepare, and thus have the home advantage. Whether Rhavin actually would see things in this way is less likely, but it is at least possible. We cannot rule it out absolutely. She may, of course, have had another reason for going there. Feedback please.

 

Oh, and one final thing. We know that we can solve the mystery using only information contained in FOH. This does not include transmigration or SH. I just thought some people (you should know who you are) should bear this in mind.

[Luckers]

Mr Ares, please tone it down. Your condescension for other posters has passed because its bordered on humorous, but you are overstepping that bound.

 

Concider this an official warning.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Its amazing to me how much vitriol this question engenders.  And believe me, I'm not claiming to be above it ... there have been times I've caught myself staring slack-jawed at the screen, and others where I actually had to get up and walk around a bit.

 

And oh the responses I've deleted .... lol.

 

It is, of course, upon somewhat more mature reflection, incredibly silly.  This man never existed.  Its a STORY.  And yet, it is indicative of how much we connect, as humans, with stories, and thus, how much we judge one another's mental capacity by our reaction to them.

 

All of which has only the purpose saying, in a very roundabout way, lets all just take a deep breath.  Intelligent people can disagree on this subject, despite all contentions to the contrary (including any statements I may have made, in a fit of pique, to the contrary).

 

...

 

...

 

...

 

...

 

Not that any of that changes the fact that Graendal did it.  ;D

[Luckers]

Certainly not. Heh.

[Emperor]

I challenge your claim as a long term member of DM.  I have been around since the beginning and do not recognize your name. 

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

No, that's not what he said. I believe that when he said "oldest poster," he meant actual age, not how long he has been on the forums.

[Darkness Incarnated]

Finally, we come back to meeting in Caemlyn as opposed to Illian or elsewhere. Personally, I would have thought that the reasons against meeting in Illian were self evident, but here goes, let's see who agrees and who doesn't: If they meet in Illian, then they must either link before, or shortly after Rand's arrival,

 

They could link before Rand's arrival, as I don't see anything keeping them from doing so (unless, of course, their mutual mistrust steps in). But even linking after he has arrived is still possible.

 

and that runs the risk of Rand being aleted to the trap (by the amount of Power being drawn, etc.) or they must wait until rand is practically on top of them before they link, which considering how many of them he has killed is a bit on the dangerous side, don't you think?

 

How could Rand feel them? Illian is a big city, they could have chosen any spot, and Rand would not have known where to look for. You are operating under the assumption that Rand would have gated in on top of them, or at least close to them.

 

Remember how he went about it when he attacked Sammael? He waited for him to CHANNEL. He had no idea about the layout of the palace, so he let Sammael give himself away. And if I remember well, a man can't feel another man HOLDING the Power unless they are close to each other, or, obviously, one of them channels. Not to mention that a man can't even feel a woman. Does linking invlove more than just holding the Power? Do you have to do anything with the Power when you are linking that could possibly give you out? This is me asking, I don't know.

 

Waiting to link when he is on top of them is stupid, and the Forsaken are anything but. Irrespective of the number he has killed, you think the FS are just going to run? Rand would have gone expecting Sammael, not four of them. He managed to escape those Asha'man hunting him, but these are FS we're talking about, they make the Asha'man look like puppies--except Dashiva, of course. There is no way Rand would have bested their combined force. Plus the little bit about him not willing to kill women, they knew it; he knew Lanfear even if he didn't know the others; one moment's  hesitation would have cost him a lot.

 

It had already been decided that Sammael would not be a part of the link, lest his inclusion alert Rand, and if not give him a chance to escape then at least make the fight harder than it would otherwise be, which is not something they want. Therfore, t would make sense to Travel in. If they do not link beforehand, then they link on arrival, which is a bit more dangerous, as it involves them coming in as and initially being individuals, which is what the plan was set up to avoid.

 

Please remind me again why it was dangerous to come in as individuals? I can't honestly remember. In which way did it jeopardize the plan? They knew the day Rand was supposed to attack, and provided they came way before he did, I don't see the danger in it. Where best to prepare a trap other than where it's supposed to be sprung? I'm curious as to how they would have localized him if they had come after he had attacked. But I haven't read the books in a while, so it's very possible I'm forgetting something.

 

Therefore, it would make sense to meet up somewhere and link prior to Travelling in, as that would mean they come in as one. Therfore, they need a meeting place to be agreed prior to Sammael giving the alert, as otherwise...well that's obvious.

 

That's what puzzles me; why wait for Sammael to send signal when you can be right there with him?

 

So this pre-arranged meeting place cannot be Illian, for the reasons outlined above,

 

Reasons I fail to understand, would you be so kind as to go into details?

 

it cannot be Lanfear's place as the others (Rhavin at least) do not know where it is, it can't be Graendal's for the same reason, so that leaves either Caemlyn or some other, neutral territory. All this was intuitivley obvious to me, but then I don't exactly think the same way as everyone else, so if you didn't see that or thought differently, that's not a problem, provided you see where I'm coming from. Now, the question arises, why Caemlyn, as opposed to neutral ground (which would be my preferred choice were I involved with the plan)? Well, if they were to do it elsewhere, then that increases the chances of being spied on (as we saw with Moggy), and thus someone learning of the plan who you do not wish to learn of it.

 

Just how long does it take to link? Because they could have picked a spot anywhere in the world, and none would have known what they were up to. You make it sound as if they needed hours for preparation.

 

If they were to do it somewhere else in Illian (the country, rather than city) they run the risk of Rand's forces mounting an attack on a more vulnerable point if he should start by attacking the country rater than just Travelling alone into the palace (they know he has an army by now, so it would be wise to worry about him using it, and they know LTT was a good general, so it would be wise to worry about him still being one).

 

You realize you are reaching? Just how big is Illian (the country)? What are the chances that Rand's forces would attack the very spot they picked for their meeting? They could have gone literally anywhere. Furthermore, Rand was primarily after Sammael, so it's only logical that he would concentrate his attention on the city, rather than some other place in the country. Hell, they could have gone on a hilltop overlooking the city and would not have had any trouble. 

 

If they were to go to T'A'R, they have to worry about Moghedian, if they go to Shadow controlled territory, they have to worry about Demandred finding out (he has been acting Nae'blis,on his own mind at least, during Ishy's "absence"), and they ave already said they don't want him involved. It makes sense (or should, anyway), if you are Rhavin, to invite the others to your base, where you can keep an eye on them, and where you can prepare, and thus have the home advantage. Whether Rhavin actually would see things in this way is less likely, but it is at least possible. We cannot rule it out absolutely. She may, of course, have had another reason for going there. Feedback please.

 

You know, if spying on people was as easy as you seem to think it is, Rand--and all the other characters the Forsaken deem important--would have ended their carrier in Randland a long time ago. Any other Forsaken who might be interested in whatever they were up to knew Caemlyn was Rahvin's base, which is reason more to watch it closely. Moghedien is not omnipresent in T'A'R--after all, they did hold meetings there, which is how she knew, but that's beside the point--nor is Demandred omnipresent as well in all regions controlled by the Shadow.

[Guest cwestervelt]

The Forsaken don't link with each other so speculation on when Graendal, Lanfear and Rahvin were planning to link is pointless.  Evidence suggests they never were going to.  The whole idea behind the plan was to eliminate some of the competition for the Dark Ones Favor.  The fact that Sammael actually thought they intended to back him up just shows how big a fool he was.

 

Week 15 Question:  At the risk of being RAFO'd: Mesaana was punished for ignoring her orders to go to stop Rand from cleansing Saidin. Was Semirhage also punished for ignoring orders, or did she have special exemption? (If you're going to RAFO us, consider giving us some other little tidbit instead?)

 

Robert Jordan Answers:  Semirhage was present at Shadar Logoth, though not seen. You didn't see Graendal, either, though admittedly Moghedien thought of her, thinking it would be good if she or Cyndane died. If I always tried to show everyone who was present at a battle or the like, the books would be a LOT longer than they are now. And those battles would get rather boring, a list of names. Go down the checklist and make sure everyone gets mentioned. Boring. Anyway, Mesaana was the only one who tried to sit it out. By the way, Moridin also was not present, for reasons that will become self-evident as you read on.

 

By the by, Rand and his companions very likely would have been killed or captured if the Forsaken were not who they are, if they had been willing to form links and coordinate their attacks. But they suffer from a combination of arrogance toward the "ignorant peasants"of the current Age and distrust of one another. Forming a link is all very well, but who leads? Which of them would be willing to give up control over their own ability and put it completely under the control of another of them? Who are you willing to let get behind your back in a fight? Moghedien? Semirhage? I didn't think so.

 

By Winter's Heart the Forsaken still won't even link to do something as important to their cause as preventing the Cleansing.

[Luckers]

They did not link, but they intended to so the discussion of their preparation is very much significant. They had initiated the plan the day before, of course their plans as to where they would be when that plan came to fruition is significant.

 

And the whole intention of the plan was to capture Rand. You have no evidence in the opposite aside from the implication by Birgitte that Lanfear was planning her own game, and Lanfear's intentions play for nothing with the question of Graendal's actions.

 

Finally your quote is made irrelevant by the fact that Graendal linked with Sammael to meet the Wise Ones.

 

 

[RobertAlexWillis]

Indeed, the only ones remaining at the Cleansing, of the four from that cabal, are Graendal and Cyndane (Lanfear).  They have new reasons for mutual mistrust, reasons that post-date the plan which was foiled in TFoH.  So, Jordan's statements on why the Forsaken didn't link at the Cleansing are not really applicable to the fearsome foursome cabal.

 

At least two of the participants in that plan have demonstrated a willingness to trust to the point of linking, as Luckers pointed out.