Camp Dreadfall Mafia Game -- GAME OVER -- MAFIA WIN!

[Turin Turambar]

Since we are speculating,  here is my take on the entirety of Day 2. Spoilered for length. 

Spoiler

This actually starts with a small bit of Day 1. Perhaps SD is a Godfather trying to draw a view on N1, ( or some sort of absorber ) his wacky action could definitely draw a cop view. Anyway. Going into Day 2 SD had a load of heat. He was the alternate train when a townie got lunched. I think mafia decided they needed to be out front on his lunch. Dice votes him almost immediately while tying his flip to going after me. It doesn't get a lot of traction in part because dpr and I are going back and forth. Darthe goes for his hijack saying he is going after SD, but at the first opportunity he switches to Heavy, which probably spews Heavy as town. This doesn't go anywhere in part due to dpr and I talking about the roe claiming. Darthe moves back to SD because he pretty much has to and it sits there until EoD. Dice comes in and they try a hail Mary to flip the vote to Tigraine. It doesn't work so they decide better to have busy Darthe with his half chance busdrive go than whatever SD has. Dice votes darthe switching the vote. 

Spoiler

The other possibility to explain the mafia power is they might have some additional team powers that anyone on the team can use.

 

 

[DPR]

6 minutes ago, Turin Turambar said:

Since we are speculating,  here is my take on the entirety of Day 2. Spoilered for length. 

  Hide contents

This actually starts with a small bit of Day 1. Perhaps SD is a Godfather trying to draw a view on N1, ( or some sort of absorber ) his wacky action could definitely draw a cop view. Anyway. Going into Day 2 SD had a load of heat. He was the alternate train when a townie got lunched. I think mafia decided they needed to be out front on his lunch. Dice votes him almost immediately while tying his flip to going after me. It doesn't get a lot of traction in part because dpr and I are going back and forth. Darthe goes for his hijack saying he is going after SD, but at the first opportunity he switches to Heavy, which probably spews Heavy as town. This doesn't go anywhere in part due to dpr and I talking about the roe claiming. Darthe moves back to SD because he pretty much has to and it sits there until EoD. Dice comes in and they try a hail Mary to flip the vote to Tigraine. It doesn't work so they decide better to have busy Darthe with his half chance busdrive go than whatever SD has. Dice votes darthe switching the vote. 

  Reveal hidden contents

The other possibility to explain the mafia power is they might have some additional team powers that anyone on the team can use.

 

 

So in a nutshell, you’ve got dice and SD as the last 2 mafia? 

[Turin Turambar]

55 minutes ago, HeavyHalfMoonBlade said:

Something else: such as what if Ed is mafia with a bpv? The real Vig will waste their shot and to everyone else it will look like Ed must be the real deal. 

 

Don't know how likely this is, but I'm not sure how speculating or what might happen is going to help. 

I think that this question will resolve itself in the morning. Ed needs to try his very best without missing another DL, call his shot just before dawn, and we see what happens. The results will speak volumes I think.

 

There are currently 7 left, correct? 5 town and 2 mafia. So even if 2 townies die during the night we are still 3-2. I think we have a good chance of those numbers being more in our favour if the claims made are true. If two people die of any sort I think that confirms Ed. No way in this small a game mafia gets multiple kills over multiple nights. With 2mafia left, if dpr has a RB, he has a 50/50 chance at blocking a kill. By the OP, mafia only has 1 more role. So they can't block both of them. (Unless they do have shared powers, ugh)

[Turin Turambar]

4 minutes ago, DPR said:

So in a nutshell, you’ve got dice and SD as the last 2 mafia? 

Yes. I think the voting pattern and the way they BOTH sussed me by sort of sussing each other makes it clear.

[dicetosser1]

2 hours ago, Turin Turambar said:

So you wanted to be the cop in a situation that no one believed you were the cop??? Glutton for punishment, much. 

  Hide contents

Sorry, mafia can't replace in.

 

just as well I’m not mafia then isn’t it

 

 

1 hour ago, DPR said:

This is the end of N1

 

It has been said that Key’s description of Teph’s death points to a Town Vig and not a double Mafia NK

 

Question 1: Does everyone agree with this? 

it reads that way to me

 

 

1 hour ago, DPR said:

Above is the current player list. 
 

Darthe was a Bus Driver with a 50% chance of success. 
 

In my mind, this seems a bit underpowered for the Mafia team. 
 

If we answer question  1 “yes” and we factor in ed’s uncountered Vig claim, then we have a Town Vig with a nightly kill. 
 

That’s a lot of power

 

I know my claim is real, so that’s even more power

 

Town Roles so far:

 

- Cop

- Vig with a nightly kill

- JOAT with 1x Investigate, 1x Jailkeep, 1x RB, 1x Double Vote

 

Mafia Roles so far: 

 

- NK

- Bus Driver with 50% of success

 

Question 2: Does this seem like Mafia is underpowered?

 

Question 3: If yes, what role could the last 2 mafia have that would balance the scales? 

I’m not a mode so I dunno if things balance so I will just throw some role ideas out

 

if you have a double vote then maybe unlynchable ? Or their own double voter or vote thief?

 

joats a possibility.

 

whats the counter to a jail keeper? Is it the jailer or would it be an rb or something else? 
 

and if Turin is a town role and is what I think he is, I’m not sure there even is a counter to it. Unless jailing is sposed to be the counter but that seems wrong

 

 

1 hour ago, HeavyHalfMoonBlade said:

So DPR has turned into Turin? 

 

What is the point of this speculation? We don't even know the claims are true, so building anything on that shaky foundation will be tricky. 

 

We also cannot forget the Jailbreak autocorrect that Darthe knew was a jailkeep without clarification and nor did he ask. Yeah, I don't think this game is straightforward at all. 

 

I twigged to it being wrong but I thought jailer not jailkeeper
 

 

1 hour ago, DPR said:

Which brings us to: 

 

A Vig claim is easy for Mafia to make - they can back it up and say the other NK was role locked or whatever

 

Darthe did kindly leave us that remark when he said we could do something with a Vig, RB, Jailkeep plan. 
 

But ed is uncountered and that scene says what it says. 
 

So I’m keeping ed in my Town core

 

Question 4: Does this seem correct?

yes Ed should be town core

 

 

58 minutes ago, DPR said:

We do have some strange behaviors to account for: 

 

- SD has in fact spent much more time talking about non-game topics than anything related to the game. 
 

Is he just free associating his way through the game? Or is there a post restriction in play? I’ve leaned toward the former, but with that 50% chance on Darthe’s role, I can’t ignore the possibility of the latter. 
 

Then we have dice’s last minute vote. He’s given an explanation for it, but it still sticks out like a sore thumb. 
 

If I look at it for face value, it’s easy to think he protected SD from a lynch. And that’s after his vote was on SD all day. 
 

Why?

Good luck coming up with an answer considering I don’t know the answer to that 

one myself

 

47 minutes ago, DPR said:

This was the last vote count before dice moved his vote to Darthe, 5 minutes to deadline. 
 

He gave it a moment longer before his last-minute jump to Darthe

 

His vote was on SD all day and he never brought up any case against Darthe. He waited until the last minute to move his vote - something a player does when they don’t want to give anyone else time to counter their move. 

Question 4: Is this pretty much Occam’s Razor? 
 

Question 5: Why be so obvious about it? 
 

Question 6: Is it possible that the Wolves just wanted to get to night so that they could pull out the big guns we can’t see and maybe wrap up the game? 
 

 

 

 

 

4 depends on what you think is the simplest answer. If you think it’s a townie taking a punt then yes.  Anything else no

 

5 because I’m town. And vanilla. I don’t have to hide anything. And I voted after I’d seen keys 2 minute warning not 5 mins before do

 

6 supposes that mafia were active to lynch darthe or that the hammer was by mafia.  The first is possible but I think unlikely. Even with 50% chance bus drivers a pretty handy role to have in a mafia team especially with someone like darthe in the team let alone in charge of it.

 

the second is impossible

 

4 minutes ago, DPR said:

Okay

 

Why was Darthe voting SD?  Because SD was an easy place to park a vote and make Darthe seem like he was active? Or, if SD is mafia, distancing. 
 

Why was SD not protecting himself? If SD is to be believed, because he really thought it was a hammer game and he wanted to move to night without a mislynch. Or, if SD is mafia, because he thought Darthe’s role was more valuable than SD’s? 
 

The crux for those question lay in whether or not SD is acting, or playing a genuine game. 
 

Which one do you think?

this has been bugging me.  If sd is scum I can’t figure out why darthe has been sitting on him for two days. Unless it’s to make us think he wouldn’t.

 

BUT the bit that really gets me is SD not moving.  He was aware enough of how the lunch worked to move on d1 right? So why not in the same situation on d2? I can only think he didn’t want darthe lynched.  It’s that that made me say he’s an option for bugging and why I’d lunch him if alive tomorrow

[Turin Turambar]

I also think that SD has the better role. Dice is most likely just a goon.

 

That being said I still don't trust any of you,  lolololololol 

 

Maybe I am a paranoid conspiracy theorist. 

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

I'm working on the assumption at this point that SD is playing sincerely. This is not a strongly held conviction. 

 

But the point I'm making is that as it is Turin's theories are not internally consistent. An induction to a solution can make them more believable. 

 

Positing Ed/Turin/SD is telling the truth or not, discuss, does not seem to be helpful without examining their behaviour. WIFOMing about SD being mafia or town to explain his vote doesn't seem to be useful. 

[dicetosser1]

16 minutes ago, DPR said:

So in a nutshell, you’ve got dice and SD as the last 2 mafia? 

mof course he thinks I’m mafia. I’m in the game.

 

i think SD is scum as said a minute ago

 

the last I think is between tigs and Turin. I don’t trust turins claim and I don’t like what he’s been saying tonight 

 

problem with tig is there’s nothing to work with really.

[Turin Turambar]

Heavy,  near EoD2i think you said something along the lines of "why isn't mafia trying to start another train?"

 

What did Dice try to do right when he arrived in thread?(okay second post) He tried to yolo onto Tigraine.  He was serious and seemed to me more enthusiastic about that then voting either SD or Darthe.  Go back and read it yourself and see what you think.

[Turin Turambar]

2 minutes ago, dicetosser1 said:

mof course he thinks I’m mafia. I’m in the game.

 

i think SD is scum as said a minute ago

 

the last I think is between tigs and Turin. I don’t trust turins claim and I don’t like what he’s been saying tonight 

 

problem with tig is there’s nothing to work with really.

If you think  SD is mafia, why switch? Show your Darthe case.

[Turin Turambar]

On D1 at crunch time you refused to vote SD.on D2 at crunch time you refused to vote SD despite having your vote there all day. Now you say he is mafia again. It doesn't track. You didn't jump right on Darthe either. You first tried to flip it to Tigraine. Simplest explanation is you are mafia with the confirmed mafia and the alternate train both days that you refused to vote although you say he's mafia. Tomorrow at crunch time I wager you find an excuse to vote me or Tigraine. 

 

 

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

10 minutes ago, Turin Turambar said:

Heavy,  near EoD2i think you said something along the lines of "why isn't mafia trying to start another train?"

 

What did Dice try to do right when he arrived in thread?(okay second post) He tried to yolo onto Tigraine.  He was serious and seemed to me more enthusiastic about that then voting either SD or Darthe.  Go back and read it yourself and see what you think.

Yes, I definitely noticed it. I suppose you can add that Dice did exactly the same with GK at D1. But it seemed a rather tame attempt. Would the mafia not act more like a team? Why would not one of them be parked there already and prepare the thread a bit? It felt like one person trying. 

 

But yes it is definitely to keep in mind. 

 

But it seems strange to me that we have been flailing about this game and yet you are arguing that only mafia were under suspicion. That seems like mafia are very confident of whatever plan they are carrying out. Darthe voted me and DPR then went back to SD. That seems to me to be going back to an easier miselimination, or he is taking big risks to get us to carry out some sort of NA on SD. That doesn't seem to make sense to me, but we dknt knwo the roles so... 

 

Dice and Darthe could have been on someone else. Concentrating on a teammate and then allowing us to counter train on another of only three wolves seems like a very big brain plan. Not sure I want to place too much faith into them doing that while also trying to win the game. But the NAs should give some clarity on their plans. 

[Turin Turambar]

I guess we're at glglglgl then, lolololololol 

 

Hopefully we get lucky.

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

9 minutes ago, Turin Turambar said:

I guess we're at glglglgl then, lolololololol 

 

Hopefully we get lucky.

Has this game been at any other point? , lol. 

[Turin Turambar]

48 minutes ago, Turin Turambar said:

If you think  SD is mafia, why switch? Show your Darthe case.

[Turin Turambar]

Mebbe he went to bed. Sleep well, dream of plump sheeps. 

[DPR]

Here’s a question for everyone except Turin (no offense, but your biased lol):

 

Has Turin been gamesolving or sowing confusion? 

 

 

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

Turin has been definitely solving. Though I cannot shake the feeling that he has started with people he wants to eliminate and the rationalised arguments. There is a certain amount of ad hoc tone to it. Yet he also feels earnest, maybe the mind tricks of genuinely hunting PRs or something. I'm deeply suspicious, but I'm not sure he is any more suspicious than the other options. 

 

Though it was my unease at how Turin and Darthe were interacting that caused my vote on Darthe. That might be a piece of luck or just a coincidence. 

[Turin Turambar]

8 minutes ago, DPR said:

Here’s a question for everyone except Turin (no offense, but your biased lol):

 

Has Turin been gamesolving or sowing confusion? 

 

 

Commander I'd like you to leave the room so we can talk about you behind your back.

 

 

Lolololololol 

[DPR]

4 minutes ago, HeavyHalfMoonBlade said:

Turin has been definitely solving. Though I cannot shake the feeling that he has started with people he wants to eliminate and the rationalised arguments. There is a certain amount of ad hoc tone to it. Yet he also feels earnest, maybe the mind tricks of genuinely hunting PRs or something. I'm deeply suspicious, but I'm not sure he is any more suspicious than the other options. 

 

Though it was my unease at how Turin and Darthe were interacting that caused my vote on Darthe. That might be a piece of luck or just a coincidence. 

Darthe was sussing you during all of our back and forths. 
 

Dathe had me and Turin as Town vs. Town and you as “coached” Mafia. 
 

Game theory points to there being a wolf among the three of us:(DPR/Turin/Heavy)

 

And
 

If we have ed as Vig, that puts the third wolf among Tigs/dice/SD

 

 

[DPR]

7 minutes ago, Turin Turambar said:

Commander I'd like you to leave the room so we can talk about you behind your back.

 

 

Lolololololol 

Permission to speak freely lmao

[DPR]

Does Mafia!Darthe accuse Heavy of being coached if they are Mafia together? 
 

I gotta go back and look, but when Darthe started pushing that, I don’t think I’d voted him yet. Were we looking at over-confident Darthe doing a little triage on Heavy shifting gears from emo to calculating? 

[DPR]

Does Mafia!SD start the game with a TWTBAW strategy and keep it going to the point of moving his vote to ensure his own lynch?

 

Only to have dice pull a last minute save?

 

 

 

[Tigraine]

18 hours ago, HeavyHalfMoonBlade said:

Well, shoot. 

 

I saw you had "explained" this reaction but can you re-explain cause my simple brain doesn't get this reaction to lynching mafia...did you maybe mean to post that in your scum chat?  Honestly, this just really stuck out to me.  I haven't thought you scum the whole game but not wanting to over celebrate does not explain being disappointed.

 

4 hours ago, DPR said:

This is the end of N1

 

It has been said that Key’s description of Teph’s death points to a Town Vig and not a double Mafia NK

 

Question 1: Does everyone agree with this? 

 

I agree

3 hours ago, DPR said:

His vote was on SD all day and he never brought up any case against Darthe. He waited until the last minute to move his vote - something a player does when they don’t want to give anyone else time to counter their move. 

Question 4: Is this pretty much Occam’s Razor? 
 

Question 5: Why be so obvious about it? 
 

Question 6: Is it possible that the Wolves just wanted to get to night so that they could pull out the big guns we can’t see and maybe wrap up the game? 
 

 

 

 

 

If we assume that SD is scum, the only option that makes sense if Dice is also scum is that which someone else has already stated....SD has a better ability and with the switch, it looks good that Dice is on the train that killed scum.  But, it really makes one wonder why SD didn't also vote Darthe in that scenario.  Unless he was waiting on direction from the other 2 scum and just missed his chance.  Its a Never-ending rabbit hole of questions but I guess the only one that matters is, does a Darthe/Dice/SD team make sense under the circumstances?

 

52 minutes ago, DPR said:

Here’s a question for everyone except Turin (no offense, but your biased lol):

 

Has Turin been gamesolving or sowing confusion? 

 

 

 

At first I truly believe sowing confusion whether purposely or not is anyone's guess.  The argument with you done just that in my head.  His recent stuff makes me say hes scumhunting which again brings the question of "did he realize his confusion sowing was making him questionable and therefore decided to change it up?" 

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

36 minutes ago, DPR said:

Does Mafia!Darthe accuse Heavy of being coached if they are Mafia together? 
 

I gotta go back and look, but when Darthe started pushing that, I don’t think I’d voted him yet. Were we looking at over-confident Darthe doing a little triage on Heavy shifting gears from emo to calculating? 

As I remember it you were ready voting him, and then Darthe popped up and low key defended Turin while actually talking about something else - or something like that and I felt this is all I have really so made the vote. Pretty sure I was second in the train. Then Darthe gave me his full attention, and criticisms. He may have started with coached bit earlier but I don't think so.