Camp Dreadfall Mafia Game -- GAME OVER -- MAFIA WIN!

[Turin Turambar]

1 hour ago, DPR said:

@Turin Turambar in regard to your past couple of posts: 

 

If there is a Doc, the point of them not revealing is so they can protect someone else - not themselves.

 

In this case, it would be ed, so that he can live.
 

But there are problems…

 

We are at MyLo unless the Vig has more shots. In that case, even if we mislynch, we still move to night. But the Vig has to holster or hit mafia for us to move to day. And the Vig is working from the same pool of info we are, lol. That didn’t work out so great last night…

 

So we need a town core to narrow the choices, hopefully lynch a wolf and maybe even Vig another one at some point.
 

I made the 1x Vig comment to Darthe because I wanted to see his reaction. He didn’t react, and that troubles me. 
 

He did go on to say who he’d be willing to vote for today and “probably tomorrow”, which is odd given that he was responding to my post about today maybe being MyLo. Why would he say “tomorrow” - hence I asked him how distracted he was. 
 

His play yesterday made me think he might be the Vig and I hoped he was hinting at that. But…

 

ed claimed the Vig role instead. 
 

Common sense tells us there is no point in one of them making a claim that could be easily cc’d (unless they are just yolo’ing for lulz at this point…) 

 

So, in a game where town is pretty much FECKED, I’m inclined to believe ed (unless he is cc’d lol) and I’m gonna blank sheet this entire game and try to build a core. 

ed claimed a Town role

 

And now you have claimed a Town role 

 

I also have a Town role. 

 

Given your spec on how stacked the mafia might be, if you, me and ed are telling the truth, that makes 4 Town pr’s - so I’m guessing Mafia have more as well. 
 

I’m interested in your thoughts over all of this 

 

OK. I think that if the Doc can self protect they are more important than a vig. If Ed is the vig ( I'm not so sure) then he will get a shot tonight even if they kill him. He needs to kill a mafia if he shoots. 

The things about 1x and tomorrow track to me. Ed clearly stated he has more shots. That also tracks with my role which is sometimes limited but mine is not. 

Spec wise I think 4 roles is probably the max due to ranges ( I almost never expect the number to be at an extreme) and the fact that if not we've been extremely lucky that more roles haven't been offed in just collateral damage. Therefore claiming MIGHT?? be worth while. But everyone needs to be about to make it work properly imo. 

 

BTW, I still don't really trust you but I'm listening. 

[Darthe]

1 minute ago, DPR said:

So what do you think of the plan you’re doing everything in your power to not address lol

I think you’d really like us to talk about something else.  But I’ll humor it.  What plan?  PR claims?  It’s mylo, town needs what it can get.  If the doc can self protect I’m even more for it, but I get if they don’t wanna do similar.  

[Darthe]

unvote 

 

That slip sits wrong with me.  Wes doesn’t make that mistake.  

[Darthe]

Turin what are you seeing irt the past 5 pages?  Do you get the heavy read?

[Darthe]

Scratch that, better question.  Ignore Wes for a moment, slip or no slip or whatever that’s not the play for today.  I get that you’re voting there, but it’s the wrong pivot.  We need all voters on the same person.

 

who is your most confident wolf read?

[DPR]

3 minutes ago, Turin Turambar said:

OK. I think that if the Doc can self protect they are more important than a vig. If Ed is the vig ( I'm not so sure) then he will get a shot tonight even if they kill him. He needs to kill a mafia if he shoots. 

The things about 1x and tomorrow track to me. Ed clearly stated he has more shots. That also tracks with my role which is sometimes limited but mine is not. 

Spec wise I think 4 roles is probably the max due to ranges ( I almost never expect the number to be at an extreme) and the fact that if not we've been extremely lucky that more roles haven't been offed in just collateral damage. Therefore claiming MIGHT?? be worth while. But everyone needs to be about to make it work properly imo. 

 

BTW, I still don't really trust you but I'm listening. 

The thing is, ed as Vig is just as valuable to Town if he doesn’t shoot - it’s the fact that he could shoot that keeps Town alive even if we do mislynch. 
 

So as long as a doc is unknown, Mafia have to shoot into 4. Or, they can shoot ed and end his ability to prolong the Town in this game. 
 

Do you understand? 
 

Im lost where you say your role is sometimes limited but then you say your role is not limited? 
 

Any chance you want to share your role? I will share mine regardless of what you do, knowing that any and all info can help the town. 
 

No trust necessary - just easy math

[Turin Turambar]

1 hour ago, DPR said:

 
Nobody is cleared until they die or we win. 
 

But for lack of a better plan, we gotta try  something over the next few hours

 

The devil will be in the details of the roles Turin and I have claimed. I really want to hear his thoughts on revealing, but I will out regardless. Just want to see what he says without that knowledge first

I am thinking about it. Right now I'm wondering if it might be best to have the VTs claim as such. Just to get the numbers straight which imo will help in determining veracity of claims. I could see mafia having a 1x strongman or something similar. Then Ed claiming gets him out of PoE because there is no vig to cc. I really wish he had shot SD because then the wagonomics from D1 are clearer. No use crying over spiled blood I guess.

1 hour ago, DPR said:

Jury is out on the idea of WIFOM, but DL is in 8 hours, so at some point we’re gonna have to take a chance. 
 

Other than a situation where someone cc’s ed, I’m just gonna role with him as Vig, If someone does cc him, our pool is narrowed to 2, which ain’t bad

 

And I know that I can prove my role

 

That leaves Turin. 

I can only prove my role with mafia assistance. I don't think we are going to get it tbh. Maybe.

 

I will say this. If there is a Doc.

DO NOT PROTECT ME.

UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE. 

[Turin Turambar]

9 minutes ago, Darthe said:

Turin what are you seeing irt the past 5 pages?  Do you get the heavy read?

I think I understand the logic of potential coaching but I know in the other games he had moments of tremendous insight when he was able to stay away from the paranoia of being sussed so I don't think it's that easy. 

 

Could he be a wolf? Yes. Is it a lock? I don't see it yet. 

[DPR]

2 minutes ago, Turin Turambar said:

I am thinking about it. Right now I'm wondering if it might be best to have the VTs claim as such. Just to get the numbers straight which imo will help in determining veracity of claims. I could see mafia having a 1x strongman or something similar. Then Ed claiming gets him out of PoE because there is no vig to cc. I really wish he had shot SD because then the wagonomics from D1 are clearer. No use crying over spiled blood I guess.

I can only prove my role with mafia assistance. I don't think we are going to get it tbh. Maybe.

 

I will say this. If there is a Doc.

DO NOT PROTECT ME.

UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE. 

Am I reading this correctly? You want the VT’s to claim because that will help you determine the veracity of claims?? 
 

How does that work when all the wolves will claim VT? And anyone that doesn’t is outed as a PR? 
 

I’m gonna do a fast self-check to make sure I didn’t have a stroke that choked all the oxygen from my brain…

[Turin Turambar]

7 minutes ago, DPR said:

The thing is, ed as Vig is just as valuable to Town if he doesn’t shoot - it’s the fact that he could shoot that keeps Town alive even if we do mislynch. 
 

So as long as a doc is unknown, Mafia have to shoot into 4. Or, they can shoot ed and end his ability to prolong the Town in this game. 
 

Do you understand? 
 

Im lost where you say your role is sometimes limited but then you say your role is not limited? 
 

Any chance you want to share your role? I will share mine regardless of what you do, knowing that any and all info can help the town. 
 

No trust necessary - just easy math

That first is not true because mafia only win if they get a successful kill. That is not guaranteed. 

Meaning my role is sometimes x-shot or odd or even night. I have access every night. Revealing will make it less useful which I think is worse for town but maybe??

[DPR]

@Turin Turambar if I fully reveal first, will you fully reveal directly after? No f’n around, just straight info for the town? 

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

40 minutes ago, Darthe said:

This is yet another strong post by Turin, not getting what Wes is still supposed to show me here but then, that aligns with what Turin said above.  
 

Turin irt your comments on me I frankly don’t care what you like, I’m not gonna sit back and watch us lose this thing and, as you should well know, interaction is the king of all kings in mafia.  Heavy screwed up, overplayed their hand on those pushes.  You may not know I’m town but I do, and that’s a wolf.  Supersedes anything else I have.  Always will.

This post says “I think you’re bad because you look bad and baddies look bad but maybe you’re not bad but bad guys are bad so I dunno but good guys do this too but you’re bad for it”.  Utterly useless crap-flinging.  There’s nothing to respond to, it’s just a prayer that if we say bad things about someone enough times people will believe em.  It’s as if im talking crazy pills that someone actively misrepping me from one page ago isn’t drawing heat for this.  Did anyone else read this post?  Every item in red is  phrased to be negatively persuasive like heavy enrolled in the Donald Trump school of mafia.   If you read nothing else about my post every player should read the Orange.

 

A couple things worth pulling out of here.  I love how 90% I’m voting SD got turned into you said youre 90% not voting me.  These last two posts together, while I’m being accused of desperation, clearly display that heavy hates the sus pulled.  The reaction is so natural, double down when you don’t know how to back out.  Fling what you can at the other person.

 

I’m also fascinated in how anyone justifies a townie mindset in “x doesn’t explain y” five times over where the townie never asks the corresponding questions.  Y’all starting to see it yet?

 

Further, the rest of this post is meant to dismiss my case, but my case isn’t built around meta.  If anyones too lazy to go back a page or two, I pinged heavy at the start of this over a meta thing, but my arguments now regard how inauthentically and voraciously they’re rebuffing those and spinning them.  A coached player struggles in real-time interactions, and that’s my in.  And it’s working. I could go highlight in red again, but it’s just to demonstrate a point.
 

To heavy: I’ve played one game with you before this one, and in it you failed to understand the difference between your feelings and a read.  In this one what I have is that you’re dead set on spending mylo trying to lynch me who I know is town.  In the process of it you’re crossing yourself up half the time, like in this very post where apparently my meta doesn’t matter (because you just got shut down, you tried it) and your short-lived to nonexistent meta apparently does.  Thank goodness Zander who’s not in this game could verify it, right?  I don’t know that, I don’t know you, and I don’t have to give you an inch.  Which I won’t, you already screwed this up.  
 

 

TIL resolving a slot doesn’t push the game forward.  Why are you so doggedly ignoring the heavy discussions?  This is getting skeevy.  If you guys are determined to lose this game, I don’t know what to do about it.

Aww, And I thought you didn't care, Darthe. 

 

Though I am a little concerned at how much wrong you have managed to squeeze into that post. Why have you dissected a post aimed at Sinister as if I was talking about you? 

 

Why are intimating that you started this little spat, when you are fully reacting to my sus of you? Your accusations are nonsensical. I'm meant to believe your just completely mistaken in your read of me? 

 

It is just all so wrong. For example, your meta doesn't matter comment, I said let's agree this frantic, shouting at the clouds, beset by terrible players who don't know how to read, is entirely within your meta. What I'm saying is that your response is totally inappropriate to what I have said. And of course no one was in that first game with me and Zander, no I can say whatever I want about it. 

 

I've screwed what up? I made a vote on a hunch, like you guys are telling me to do all the time, and you exploded in a cloud of pique and suddenly I'm the worst player ever and you know for sure that I'm a wolf. It has been bizarre to watch. Honestly, I feel a bit concerned. 

[Turin Turambar]

2 minutes ago, DPR said:

Am I reading this correctly? You want the VT’s to claim because that will help you determine the veracity of claims?? 
 

How does that work when all the wolves will claim VT? And anyone that doesn’t is outed as a PR? 
 

I’m gonna do a fast self-check to make sure I didn’t have a stroke that choked all the oxygen from my brain…

Yes. My logic is if too many people claim roles then there is an issue and it will need resolving. There already 3 alive people with claimed roles none of which are the doc. So if 2 more people claim town roles then we have too many roles. If more claim VT, then the claimed roles are.more likely to be real.

 

Does that.make sense??

[DPR]

2 minutes ago, Turin Turambar said:

That first is not true because mafia only win if they get a successful kill. That is not guaranteed. 

Meaning my role is sometimes x-shot or odd or even night. I have access every night. Revealing will make it less useful which I think is worse for town but maybe??

As long as ed is alive, he represents a possible path toward victory for the town. Can we agree on that? 
 

If the Doc protects ed, we preserve that chance. 
 

If Mafia have a Strongman, then it doesn’t matter, but what choice do we have? 
 

Saving the Doc for N3 doesn’t work because there’s a better than avg chance there won’t be an N3 if we mislynch and ed is dead
 

[Turin Turambar]

5 minutes ago, DPR said:

@Turin Turambar if I fully reveal first, will you fully reveal directly after? No f’n around, just straight info for the town? 

I'd like your response to my previous post first. I'm thinking about it.

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

I feel like I'm missing something. It is 5v3, yes? So a miselimination and a successful NK wins mafia the game. How does a Vig change that unless they kill a mafia? 

[DPR]

5 minutes ago, Turin Turambar said:

Yes. My logic is if too many people claim roles then there is an issue and it will need resolving. There already 3 alive people with claimed roles none of which are the doc. So if 2 more people claim town roles then we have too many roles. If more claim VT, then the claimed roles are.more likely to be real.

 

Does that.make sense??

No? 
 

People have to prove roles? That and I’d rather be the judge of whether or not a claim is bullshit - people do make slips.  
 

Otherwise we’re just gonna watch 5 hands go up when you ask who’s a VT.

 

[Turin Turambar]

1 minute ago, DPR said:

As long as ed is alive, he represents a possible path toward victory for the town. Can we agree on that? 
 

If the Doc protects ed, we preserve that chance. 
 

If Mafia have a Strongman, then it doesn’t matter, but what choice do we have? 
 

Saving the Doc for N3 doesn’t work because there’s a better than avg chance there won’t be an N3 if we mislynch and ed is dead
 

That assumes a successful mafia kill. If they fail even if Ed holstered then D3 happens (if he hits it guarantees D4?)and we can lynch Mafia tomorrow with higher probability due to numbers. I think it's more important to keep townies alive than shoot.mafia. don't get.me wrong I'm all for shooting mafia but with the numbers dwindling a self protecting doc is more valuable imo than a vig that might kill townies by accident. The doc is guaranteed town. If mafia can't kill them then we have more chances to win at endgame. I'm pretty sure of this. We need to lynch mafia. Yes obviously. 

[Turin Turambar]

3 minutes ago, DPR said:

No? 
 

People have to prove roles? That and I’d rather be the judge of whether or not a claim is bullshit - people do make slips.  
 

Otherwise we’re just gonna watch 5 hands go up when you ask who’s a VT.

 

If everyone else claims VT, does it make you feel better or worse about EdS claim? About mine? To me it makes the given claims more likely. By all means vet as possible but I just think the numbers make more sense that way.

[DPR]

4 minutes ago, HeavyHalfMoonBlade said:

I feel like I'm missing something. It is 5v3, yes? So a miselimination and a successful NK wins mafia the game. How does a Vig change that unless they kill a mafia? 

As long as the Vig is alive, there is a chance that Town could kill mafia. 
 

We are currently at 8 - 3M vs 5T 

 

If we mislynch, that puts us at 3M vs. 4T

 

If there is nothing to prevent a Mafia NK, we lose as we would wake up to 3M vs. 3T

 

But ed, as Vig, represents the possibility that Town could eliminate Mafia, so his presence alone (as long as he’s telling the truth) means that we move to Night, even if we mislynch. 
 

What happens tonight is anyone’s guess - that’s why I’d like to be as informed as possible so the we can make some semblance of a plan. 
 

 

 

[Turin Turambar]

8 minutes ago, HeavyHalfMoonBlade said:

I feel like I'm missing something. It is 5v3, yes? So a miselimination and a successful NK wins mafia the game. How does a Vig change that unless they kill a mafia? 

Yes. If the vig shoots a mafia then even if the mafia kill goes thru then in the morning it would be 3-2. The .Mafia nk is not imo a given. If they get lucky today and lynch a townie then they only have 4 people to shoot at tonight. If there is a Doc then there is at worst a 25 percent chance of failing the kill. Actually slightly worse if doc accidentally protected a mafia. 

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

The problem is though that what if the mafia have a Strongarm or roleblocker or something similar. Wouldn't all this claiming business cut the odds of the mafia finding the Doc? I don't know. They'll want the Vig gone but may take that chance if they are feeling lucky. It feels like it would be really easy for the mafia to take advantage of this... 

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

But all this we need to be informed as possible seems to be informing the mafia even more who already have a huge advantage in the informing general area. 

 

Are you guys sure you know what you are talking about. 

 

*gives epic sideeye*

[Turin Turambar]

@HeavyHalfMoonBlade, you're in this game, what is your opinion on having everyone claim if the are vanilla, or have a role? Or even just claim mafia? 

 

Now that would be helpful. lololololol 

[Turin Turambar]

OK.ninja. lol